Crypto World
Robinhood (HOOD) Stock Tumbles 9% After Q1 Miss Driven by Crypto Decline
Key Takeaways
- Q1 earnings per share landed at $0.38, missing analyst expectations of $0.39, while revenue reached $1.07B versus $1.14B forecasted
- Cryptocurrency revenue plummeted 47% compared to the prior year, declining to $134 million, while crypto trading volume decreased 48% to $24 billion
- Shares of HOOD declined approximately 9.4% during after-hours trading session
- The prediction markets segment showed exceptional growth with 8.8 billion event contracts executed, representing a 780% increase from Q2 2025
- Bottom-line profits increased 3% year-over-year, reaching $346 million, even as topline revenue disappointed
Robinhood experienced a challenging Tuesday evening following its first-quarter earnings release. The trading platform delivered financial results that fell short of expectations across key metrics, triggering an immediate reaction from investors — shares plummeted roughly 9.4% after the closing bell.
The company’s adjusted earnings per share for the first quarter registered at $0.38, narrowly missing the Street consensus of $0.39. Overall revenue climbed to $1.07 billion, representing a 15% increase from the same period last year, yet significantly trailing the analyst forecast of $1.14 billion. The revenue shortfall amounted to approximately 6%, while the EPS miss reached 11.6%.
The primary driver behind the disappointment? Cryptocurrency.
Transaction-based revenue from crypto assets collapsed 47% compared to last year’s quarter, tumbling from $252 million down to $134 million. Meanwhile, cryptocurrency trading volumes contracted 48% to reach $24 billion. This marked the third consecutive quarter where the platform witnessed declining crypto transaction revenues.
Chief Executive Vlad Tenev tackled the issue directly during the company’s earnings conference call. “I want to get away from talking about the price of bitcoin,” he stated, indicating a strategic shift away from dependency on cryptocurrency price fluctuations for revenue generation.
Tenev positioned crypto as a long-term infrastructure opportunity instead. “We’re at the very beginning of what’s going to be a tokenization supercycle,” he explained, highlighting the firm’s broader blockchain strategy.
While crypto represented a significant headwind, other segments delivered positive results. Overall transaction-based revenue climbed to $623 million from $583 million in the year-ago period. The company maintained profitability with net income advancing 3% year-over-year to $346 million.
Prediction Markets Emerge as Growth Driver
The quarter’s most impressive performance came from Robinhood Predictions. The platform’s users executed an unprecedented 8.8 billion event contracts throughout Q1 — representing a staggering 780% surge compared to Q2 2025, when the feature first launched for a complete quarter.
This robust activity propelled “other transaction revenue” upward by 320% year-over-year to $147 million, providing a crucial counterbalance to cryptocurrency losses. According to Tenev, Robinhood Predictions is on pace to generate approximately $3 billion in trading volume for April alone.
The prediction market functionality operates through an integration with Kalshi and has experienced rapid adoption since its March 2025 introduction.
Additional revenue streams including net interest income and Gold subscription fees also delivered positive contributions as Robinhood expands its comprehensive financial services ecosystem.
Bitstamp Results Reported Separately
An important detail: Bitstamp, the cryptocurrency exchange that Robinhood acquired in June 2025, was excluded from the consolidated crypto metrics mentioned above. The standalone exchange processed $42 billion in trading volume throughout Q1, representing a 13% decline from Q4 2025.
This represents substantial volume that isn’t reflected in Robinhood’s primary crypto reporting, meaning the complete scope of cryptocurrency activity across the combined platform exceeds what the reported decline might suggest.
Coinbase (COIN), scheduled to announce earnings on May 7, also experienced a roughly 1% decline on Tuesday — the two companies frequently exhibit correlated movements given their mutual exposure to retail cryptocurrency trading activity.
Robinhood’s first-quarter performance illustrates a platform undergoing strategic transformation, pivoting toward prediction markets and diversified financial services while its historically strong cryptocurrency segment experiences headwinds.
Crypto World
Bitcoin ETFs End Inflow Streak as BTC Slips Below $77K
US-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds posted their first net outflows in nine sessions as BTC slipped below $77,000 on Monday.
Bitcoin ETFs saw $263 million in net outflows on Monday, marking the first outflows since mid-April, according to SoSoValue data.
The losses came after spot ETFs drew $2.1 billion in inflows since April 13 as BTC rose about 10% over the period, according to CoinGecko.

Daily spot Bitcoin ETF inflows from April 13, 2026. Source: SoSoValue
Alongside Bitcoin’s run, the Crypto Fear & Greed Sentiment Index on Monday moved into “Neutral” territory for the first time in three months, clocking a score of 47. However, the index flipped back to “Fear” on Tuesday as BTC failed to extend its rally above $80,000.
Fidelity’s Bitcoin ETF leads outflows at $150 million
The majority of Monday’s losses came from the Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC), which saw $150 million in outflows, according to Farside.
The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF (GBTC) and the ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) followed with about $47 million and $43 million, respectively.

Daily spot Bitcoin ETF inflows by issuer from April 20, 2026. Source: Farside
BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) and the Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust ETF (MSBT) recorded flat flows after multi-day inflow streaks.
Related: Bitcoin leads $1.2B weekly inflows into crypto investment products
Negative sentiment also extended to spot Ether ETFs, which posted $50.5 million in outflows on Monday. XRP and Solana ETFs recorded zero inflows.
Bitcoin institutional demand outpaces mining supply
Bitcoin’s rally in April came as institutional demand far outpaced mining supply.
Michael Saylor’s Strategy has purchased 56,235 BTC in April so far, while global ETFs added another 34,552 BTC on behalf of their clients over the same period.
This compares with 11,829 BTC estimated to have been mined so far this month, according to HODL15Capital data.

Source: HODL15Capital
CryptoQuant analyst XWIN Japan said Bitcoin’s sharp decline over the past few days was likely not driven by spot supply-demand imbalance, but by a “classic liquidity event” triggered by forced liquidations of leveraged long positions.
In earlier analysis, CryptoQuant said a rejection of the $80,000 level would signal overhead supply at that level, potentially extending the drawdown for both ETF investors and short-term whales.
Crypto World
DeFi United plans rsETH recovery after $292 million Kelp DAO exploit
DeFi United has released a recovery plan to restore full backing for Kelp DAO’s rsETH after a $292 million exploit earlier this month.
Summary
- DeFi United will convert committed ETH into rsETH tranches to restore full backing after the exploit.
- Aave may recover about 13,000 ETH through controlled liquidations of eight affected lending positions.
- The recovery still needs governance approvals, legal agreements, and staged security checks before full execution.
The coalition includes several DeFi protocols that joined efforts after the attack. The April 18 exploit targeted Kelp DAO’s rsETH bridge through a forged message. The attacker minted 116,500 unbacked rsETH tokens. Around 107,000 rsETH later moved into lending positions on Aave.
The recovery plan will convert committed ETH into rsETH in several tranches. The converted rsETH will then move to the affected lockbox contract to restore backing and support bridge operations.
“The restoration process involves converting the committed ETH into rsETH in tranches, which will then be transferred to the affected lockbox contract,” the coalition said.
Aave said DeFi United has gathered enough ETH commitments to begin the process. The initiative raised more than $300 million in ETH from DeFi participants.
Aave and Compound positions face cleanup
The plan also targets eight affected positions across Aave Ethereum Core and Arbitrum markets. Clearing those positions may help recover about 13,000 ETH from Aave.
The process will use a controlled liquidation sequence. The rsETH oracle price will be adjusted for a short period to allow the affected positions to be liquidated. The rsETH collateral will then move to a DeFi United-controlled multisig.
Compound may follow a similar path to clear the attacker’s position. That step could recover about 16,776 ETH worth of funds, according to the recovery outline.
The final phase will unpause and unfreeze rsETH and ETH across affected markets. It will also restore loan-to-value ratios that were changed during the response.
Governance approvals and security checks remain
The recovery plan still depends on governance approvals, legal agreements, and execution timelines. DeFi United said these steps must happen before the full restoration can move forward.
The coalition also noted that the attacker could try to interfere during the process. It said such action could require more liquidation steps to resolve the affected positions.
“Deliberate interference by the attacker could result in incomplete deficit accrual, requiring additional liquidation steps to fully resolve the positions,” the statement said.
DeFi United also said new security measures on LayerZero and Kelp DAO remain in production. For that reason, the ETH-to-rsETH conversion and lockbox deposits will happen in stages rather than all at once.
Crypto World
Changelly and Tonkeeper enable cross-chain deposits to TON across 13 networks
April 27, 2026 — Changelly and Tonkeeper have teamed up to make cross-chain deposits into TON a seamless, in-wallet experience. Users can now fund their Tonkeeper wallet with USDT, USDC, or DAI from 13 decentralized networks, without leaving the app.
For Changelly users already familiar with cross-chain swaps, this extends existing functionality into direct wallet deposits. For Tonkeeper’s user base, it introduces a new way to move assets into the TON ecosystem within a single interface.
Cross-chain deposits without leaving the app
With Changelly’s infrastructure integrated into Tonkeeper, cross-chain deposits can be completed within the wallet, while routing is handled in the background.
Support spans 13 networks: Ethereum, Solana, TRON, BSC, Polygon, Arbitrum, Base, Liquid, Avalanche, NEAR, Optimism, Matic, and Tezos.
The integration removes the need to use external bridges or manage multiple interfaces when moving assets across chains, keeping the entire process within the wallet environment.
Launch campaign
To mark the integration, the companies have introduced a campaign running from April 27 to May 10, 2026. Users who deposit USDT, USDC, or DAI from any of the supported networks into Tonkeeper via the integration during this period will be eligible to enter a draw for 20 one-year subscriptions to Telegram Premium.
About Tonkeeper
Tonkeeper gives users access to TON assets and dApps, USDT on TRC20, NFTs in one wallet. Tonkeeper supports powerful features like the Battery and Gasless transactions, while Tonkeeper Pro unlocks advanced tools like multisig support.
Crypto World
T. Rowe Price amends active crypto ETF filing, moving closer to launch
T. Rowe Price has advanced its entry into the crypto ETF market with a further amendment to its actively managed digital asset fund filing, bringing a potential launch closer.
Summary
- T. Rowe Price has advanced its active crypto ETF filing with a third amendment, bringing a potential launch of ticker $TKNZ closer pending SEC approval.
- The proposed fund is expected to hold 5 to 15 digital assets, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and Solana, with allocations guided by active management rather than market size.
According to a preliminary prospectus dated April 27, 2026, the Baltimore-based asset manager plans to list the T. Rowe Price Active Crypto ETF under the ticker TKNZ, with the document noting the filing remains subject to completion and regulatory approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Commenting on the matter, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said the filing has reached a “3rd amendment,” with ticker $TOKN and a 75bps fee, adding that a launch is “likely very soon” and calling it “by far biggest active manager” entering the space.

TKNZ fund prospectus. Source: Eric Balchunas.
Holding approximately $1.78 trillion in assets under management, T. Rowe Price has structured the proposed fund as an actively managed product that would invest directly in spot crypto assets, while avoiding leverage or complex derivatives, according to its SEC filings.
Active structure targets multi-asset exposure
Details outlined in the filing show the ETF is expected to hold between 5 and 15 cryptocurrencies selected under the SEC’s generic listing standards, moving away from the single asset structure seen in existing Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs.
Eligible assets listed in the filing include Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, XRP, Cardano, Avalanche, Litecoin, Dogecoin, Hedera, Bitcoin Cash, Chainlink, Stellar, and Shiba Inu, with portfolio allocations guided by fundamentals, valuation, and momentum rather than market size alone.
An index snapshot included in the filing indicates Bitcoin carries a 42.83% weight, followed by Ethereum at 19.09%, while XRP stands at 10.56% and Solana at 7.93%, with smaller allocations assigned to assets such as Dogecoin, Cardano, and Avalanche.
Fund managers are expected to adjust holdings over time based on market conditions and internal research, with the stated objective of outperforming the FTSE Crypto US Listed Index, according to the prospectus.
Filing builds on earlier push into crypto ETFs
An earlier S-1 registration submitted on Oct. 22, 2025 confirmed the firm’s initial plans to launch an Active Crypto ETF, marking a departure from its long-standing focus on mutual funds.
“Point is that legacy asset managers are quickly trying to figure out how to implement some semblance of a crypto strategy. A number of these firms actually missed out on ETF boom. They want to avoid same mistake w/ crypto,” NovaDius Wealth Management President Nate Geraci said at the time.
Regulatory developments have also played a role in shaping the timing of the launch, as the SEC has recently moved to accelerate the approval process for crypto ETFs, even as applications tied to individual altcoins remain under review.
Crypto World
Should You Buy Alphabet (GOOGL) Stock Before Today’s Q1 Earnings Report?
Key Takeaways
- Alphabet delivers Q1 2026 financial results Wednesday following market hours
- Analysts anticipate approximately $107 billion in revenue, representing 19% annual growth
- Google Cloud revenue projected to climb 47%, while operating profit could surge 120%
- Earnings per share forecasted at $2.63, declining due to challenging prior-year comparison
- Market volatility expectations point to a 5.67% price swing following the announcement
Alphabet unveils its Q1 2026 financial performance on April 29 following the closing bell. Investors are laser-focused on whether the tech giant’s enormous artificial intelligence investments are delivering tangible returns.
The company has pledged as much as $185 billion toward AI-related capital investments throughout 2026. These funds are being allocated to both proprietary infrastructure development and expanding its Google Cloud platform for enterprise clients. Each earnings cycle now serves as a critical checkpoint for validating this strategic direction.
The previous quarter demonstrated encouraging momentum. Google Cloud revenue soared 48% compared to the year-ago period in Q4 2025, accompanied by an impressive 154% surge in segment operating profitability.
Financial analysts are anticipating similar performance trends. FactSet consensus estimates point to 47% cloud division revenue expansion in Q1, coupled with 120% growth in operating earnings.
Overall company revenue is projected to reach approximately $107 billion, marking a 19% increase versus the comparable quarter.
Earnings per share are expected to decline modestly to $2.63 from the prior year. However, this decrease stems primarily from an accounting quirk — the first quarter of 2025 benefited from a temporary 62-cent-per-share gain tied to unrealized appreciation in Alphabet’s venture capital holdings. Adjusting for this anomaly reveals more consistent operational performance.
Core Business Performance Drivers
Advertising continues serving as the primary revenue generator. Ad-related income is forecasted to represent roughly 71% of Q1 total sales, reaching $76 billion — reflecting 14% year-over-year expansion. Google Search and YouTube constitute the primary growth channels, while the third-party advertising network segment continues its gradual contraction.
The cloud platform represents the principal growth narrative. During the Q4 earnings call, CEO Sundar Pichai noted that the organization has experienced “supply constraints despite our aggressive capacity expansion efforts.” This type of demand-driven limitation typically signals positive market dynamics for shareholders.
Market participants will also scrutinize capital allocation strategies. Shareholder returns through dividend payments and stock repurchases remain areas of interest, especially considering the substantial capital expenditure commitments.
Street Perspective Ahead of Results
Bernstein’s Mark Shmulik maintained his Outperform recommendation this Monday, establishing a $900 price objective. His analysis anticipates strong quarterly results, with both Search and Cloud benefiting from AI-enhanced customer engagement. YouTube performance may show inconsistency but shouldn’t materially impact overall results, according to his assessment.
Shmulik doesn’t anticipate modifications to capital spending projections during this report. He’s seeking additional clarity regarding AI product development milestones and potential operational efficiency improvements.
One note of caution: he suggests the shares may reflect full valuation at present price levels.
GOOGL has appreciated 118% during the trailing twelve months and has advanced 12% since January.
The Street consensus reflects a Strong Buy rating, comprising 26 Buy recommendations alongside 5 Hold ratings. The mean analyst price target stands at $387.68, suggesting roughly 12.6% appreciation potential from current trading levels.
Derivatives market activity indicates expectations for a 5.67% price movement in either direction after earnings publication. This substantially exceeds Alphabet’s typical 1.44% post-earnings volatility across the previous four quarters — suggesting heightened uncertainty around this particular release.
Financial results will be published following market close on April 29.
Crypto World
EUR/USD and GBP/USD consolidate ahead of the Fed decision
European currencies are showing subdued dynamics, entering a consolidation phase following their previous advance. Earlier, EUR/USD and GBP/USD broke out of their ranges and strengthened; however, the subsequent correction has led both pairs to retest the previously breached upper boundaries of their sideways channels. The current stabilisation near these levels reflects a balance of forces in the market and a wait-and-see stance among participants ahead of the key decision by the Federal Reserve.
The main focus is on the Federal Reserve meeting, including the interest rate decision, the accompanying statement, and the press conference. The market is assessing potential signals regarding the future trajectory of monetary policy, which is limiting activity and restraining the formation of a directional move. Additional influence may come from macroeconomic data from the US, the euro area, and the United Kingdom.
EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair is consolidating near the previously broken range, holding above key levels. This dynamic preserves a structure favourable for further gains; however, the lack of new drivers is restraining the development of upward momentum. The reaction to the Fed decision may provide the impulse for a breakout from the current range.
Technical analysis of EUR/USD suggests the possibility of a retest of 1.1750, as a bullish engulfing pattern has formed on the daily timeframe. A firm move below 1.1650 could lead to the pair returning to the previously broken range.
Key events for EUR/USD:
- today at 09:00 (GMT+3): speech by Bundesbank’s B. Balz;
- today at 18:30 (GMT+3): speech by Bundesbank Vice President Buch;
- tomorrow at 11:00 (GMT+3): Germany’s gross domestic product.

GBP/USD
The GBP/USD pair is showing a similar structure, holding near its levels after a corrective pullback. The current consolidation reflects market uncertainty and expectations of signals from the Federal Reserve and the outlook for Bank of England policy. Depending on the regulators’ rhetoric, the pair may either resume its advance and firmly establish itself above 1.3600, or deepen the correction and fall below 1.3460.
Key events for GBP/USD:
- today at 17:00 (GMT+3): Atlanta Fed GDPNow indicator;
- today at 21:00 (GMT+3): US Federal Reserve interest rate decision;
- today at 21:30 (GMT+3): FOMC press conference.

Overall, the market is at a point of equilibrium, where previously broken levels act as a key decision zone. The outcome of the Federal Reserve meeting may serve as the main driver: a more dovish tone could support a continuation of the upward momentum in European currencies, while more hawkish signals may increase pressure and lead to a deeper correction.
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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Crypto World
Blockchain Association presses Fed to formalize end of reputation risk in bank oversight
U.S. crypto lobbying group Blockchain Association has urged the Federal Reserve to formalise the removal of “reputation risk” from bank supervision rules, warning that the concept has been used to restrict access to financial services.
Summary
- Blockchain Association has urged the Federal Reserve to formalise the removal of reputation risk from bank supervision rules.
- The group said reputation risk has enabled the debanking of crypto firms and called for clear, consistent regulatory standards.
- The Cato Institute found most debanking cases in the U.S. were driven by government pressure rather than independent bank decisions.
In a comment letter submitted Monday, Blockchain Association executive vice president of legal and government relations Ashok Pinto said the Federal Reserve should turn its June 2025 policy change into a binding rule to prevent future misuse.
Pinto wrote that regulated institutions require “objective, consistent standards,” adding that reputation risk fails to meet that threshold.
Pinto argued that regulatory frameworks must protect the integrity of the financial system without allowing subjective assessments to influence access to banking services.
He wrote that “regulation is meant to uphold the integrity of our financial system, not to pick winners and losers based on the political winds of the day,” while warning that reliance on reputation risk introduces inconsistency into supervisory practices.
Concerns over future policy reversals
Citing past enforcement patterns, Pinto said the use of reputation risk has contributed to debanking actions targeting crypto firms, often described by industry participants as “Operation Chokepoint 2.0.”
He noted that while the Donald Trump administration has rolled back several policies linked to crypto debanking, long-term safeguards remain necessary.
Pinto wrote that future administrations could reintroduce similar measures without clear regulatory limits, stating that “reputation risk is only as neutral as the administration wielding it.”
He added that removing it through formal rulemaking would create a stable standard applicable across political cycles.
Supporting this concern, the Cato Institute reported in January that most debanking cases in the U.S. stemmed from government pressure rather than independent decisions by financial institutions, reinforcing calls for clearer supervisory boundaries.
Push for regulatory alignment
Addressing implementation, Pinto said the Federal Reserve should coordinate its final rule with steps already taken by other banking regulators. He pointed to recent actions by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, which issued a joint rule on April 7 removing reputation risk from their supervisory frameworks.
Pinto wrote that aligning standards across agencies would improve predictability for regulated entities, adding that consistent rules grounded in measurable criteria are necessary to maintain trust in the regulatory process and ensure the safety of the financial system.
Crypto World
White House teases major update on strategic Bitcoin reserve
The White House has signaled that a new step toward operationalizing the U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve has been prepared, with an announcement expected within weeks.
Summary
- White House adviser Patrick Witt said a major announcement on the U.S. Bitcoin reserve is expected within weeks, pointing to progress on legal and operational structure.
- Lawmakers including Cynthia Lummis and Nick Begich are working to pass legislation that would formalise the reserve and allow up to 1 million Bitcoin to be acquired over time.
Speaking at the Bitcoin 2026 conference in Las Vegas, Patrick Witt said officials have been working through the legal structure needed to secure and manage Bitcoin already held by the government.
He said the administration is close to finalizing key interpretations required to “solidify that and protect the digital assets, specifically bitcoin that we have on the government balance sheet.”
During the panel, Witt confirmed that internal work has focused on translating last year’s executive order into a functioning framework, with further action from the executive branch expected shortly.
He said a “big announcement” would outline the next phase, while adding that legislative backing would still be required to give the reserve long-term footing.
Lawmakers move to anchor reserve into statute
Alongside executive action, lawmakers have continued efforts to formalize the reserve through legislation. Nick Begich said the bill previously introduced as the BITCOIN Act is being renamed the American Reserves Modernization Act, or ARMA, as part of that process.
The proposal builds on the executive order signed by Donald Trump, which created a strategic Bitcoin reserve primarily funded through assets seized in criminal and civil cases, along with a separate digital asset stockpile. Lawmakers have argued that codifying the reserve into law would prevent policy reversals that could occur under future administrations.
Earlier legislative drafts led by Cynthia Lummis outlined plans to acquire up to 1 million Bitcoin over five years using budget-neutral methods.
According to Lummis, writing in October 2025, the government could begin funding the reserve “anytime,” even as Congress continues to debate the bill’s passage.
Her comments followed discussions around alternative funding strategies, including proposals highlighted by ProCap BTC chief investment officer Jeff Park, who pointed to roughly $1 trillion in unrealized gains from U.S. gold reserves as a potential source for long-term Bitcoin allocation.
Structure still taking shape as timeline tightens
While the executive order has already established the reserve framework, details on how additional Bitcoin would be acquired have not been publicly disclosed. Government-held Bitcoin currently comes from forfeitures, with policymakers weighing options to expand holdings without drawing on taxpayer funds.
Witt said the upcoming announcement would represent a “breakthrough” in advancing the reserve from a policy concept to an operational system, though he noted that follow-up legislation remains necessary to secure its permanence.
The White House has not issued further details on the planned announcement or its scope.
Crypto World
Decade-Dormant Ethereum Whale Moves $22.88 Million in ETH to New Wallet
An Ethereum (ETH) ICO participant with the wallet address 0xCD59 has transferred all its ETH holdings to a fresh wallet after 10.8 years of dormancy.
On-chain analysts noted that the dormant wallet acquired its 10,000 ETH during Ethereum’s ICO at $0.311 per token.
Decade-Old Ethereum Whale Returns to Life
At ETH’s current price, the whale’s holdings are worth $22.88 million. This marks a 7,381x return on the $3,100 original stake, Lookonchain added.
While the intent behind the transfer remains unclear and there is no confirmed evidence of a sale, similar movements have historically preceded a range of outcomes. Some early Ethereum ICO participants have opted to liquidate portions of their holdings, while others have chosen to stake or simply reposition assets without selling.
For instance, last month, address 0xd64A sold 11,552 ETH for $23.42 million at $2,027 per token. That wallet had originally bought 38,800 ETH for $12,000 during the ICO.
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However, not all early holders choose to sell. In December 2025, a dormant Ethereum ICO wallet (0x2dCA), holding 40,000 ETH, reactivated after more than a decade and opted to stake the assets rather than liquidate them.
Similarly, in September 2025, an ICO whale holding 1million ETH resurfaced after 8 years. The whale moved 150,000 ETH to a new wallet for staking.
The reactivation of long-dormant wallets continues to draw market attention, but such movements do not point to a single outcome. With no confirmed sale, the transfer leaves open multiple possibilities, reflecting the diverse approaches of early holders.
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Crypto World
US Soldier Pleads Not Guilty in Maduro Operation Case
A U.S. Army master sergeant appeared in a Manhattan federal court and pleaded not guilty to charges alleging he used nonpublic information about a classified January raid in Venezuela to place bets on Polymarket, the crypto-backed prediction market. Gannon Ken Van Dyke faces five counts, including three that violate federal commodities laws, one wire fraud count and one unlawful monetary transaction. The case could carry a maximum sentence of up to 60 years in prison if convicted. He was released on a $250,000 bond, surrendered his passport, and must adhere to travel restrictions. His next court date is scheduled for June 8.
According to prosecutors, Van Dyke, a master sergeant in the U.S. Army, was involved in planning and execution of “Operation Absolute Resolve,” a special-forces raid in Caracas that allegedly led to the capture of Nicolás Maduro. They contend he used information about the raid to buy “yes” shares in Polymarket contracts, placing about 13 bets on markets tied to Maduro and Venezuela.
The specific markets cited by prosecutors include bets on: “US Forces in Venezuela by January 31,” “Maduro out by January 31,” “Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31,” and “Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31.” DOJ prosecutors said Van Dyke wagered more than $33,000 across these markets and others. They also asserted that he profited nearly $410,000 as some bets resolved in the affirmative for the “yes” outcomes.
For context, Polymarket is a decentralized-style platform that allows users to trade on event outcomes using cryptocurrency or fiat-pegged tokens. The government’s filing notes that reports of unusual trading activity in Maduro-related contracts on Polymarket had appeared in the press and on social media prior to the charges.
The Department of Justice’s case is complemented by a separate action from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which has brought parallel insider-trading allegations against Van Dyke tied to Polymarket activities. The overlapping actions illustrate the regulatory sensitivity around prediction markets and the potential misuse of nonpublic information.
Cointelegraph reported on the charges, citing the DOJ’s indictment. For reference, the original coverage can be found here: Cointelegraph.
Key takeaways
- One active-duty U.S. Army master sergeant stands accused of using classified information from a Venezuela raid to place bets on Polymarket, facing five counts including three federal commodities-law violations, wire fraud, and unlawful monetary transaction.
- The alleged operation, described as “Operation Absolute Resolve,” is claimed to have involved a raid in Caracas that prosecutors say led to Maduro’s capture, with the soldier allegedly leveraging nonpublic information for trading advantage.
- Daunting penalties are on the table—up to 60 years in prison if convicted on all counts—coupled with a $250,000 bond, passport surrender, and travel restrictions.
- Prosecutors say Van Dyke’s Polymarket activity totaled more than $33,000 across multiple Maduro- and Venezuela-related markets, with reported profits near $410,000 as some bets resolved in the affirmative.
- In parallel, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has pursued a separate insider-trading action, underscoring renewed regulatory scrutiny of prediction markets and the risk of nonpublic information leaking into wagering contracts.
Indictment details and what comes next
The charges against Van Dyke enumerate three counts of violating federal commodities laws, one count of wire fraud and one count of unlawful monetary transaction. If found guilty on all counts, he could face a combination of prison time and financial penalties. The defense will have the opportunity to challenge the government’s characterization of the trading activity, the chain of information, and the attribution of intent. The judge also imposed travel restrictions while the case proceeds.
The government’s narrative centers on Van Dyke’s access to sensitive information about a planned operation and his subsequent use of that information to place “yes” bets on various Polymarket contracts. The markets cited by prosecutors were explicitly tied to timelines around January 31, including potential scenarios involving U.S. forces in Venezuela and actions by Maduro or the U.S. government. The prosecution argues that the bets and the timing indicate an attempt to monetize privileged information.
The regulatory overlay adds a further dimension to the case. The CFTC’s parallel action highlights how authorities are treating prediction-market platforms as potential conduits for insider trading, especially when nonpublic information intersects with market activity. Observers will be watching how this case interacts with broader policy discussions about the permissible boundaries of prediction markets and the safeguards needed to prevent misuse of sensitive military information.
The next court appearance for Van Dyke is scheduled for June 8, when the proceedings will advance toward trial on the charges as outlined by federal prosecutors. In the meantime, investors and users of prediction markets will be paying attention to how regulators weigh the linkage between classified information, military operations, and finance in a rapidly evolving digital-asset landscape.
Readers tracking this case should watch for updates on both the criminal proceedings and the CFTC action, as outcomes could influence how prediction markets are perceived and regulated moving forward.
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