Ethereum dropped another 10.2% this week, with the ETH/BTC ratio sinking toward 0.0275, and market maker Wintermute is now flatly calling ETH “not the right asset for this macro” as yields and inflation grind higher.

According to a note shared via industry channels and summarized by WuBlockchain on X, Wintermute says Ethereum’s (ETH) latest 10.2% weekly slide continues a pattern of underperformance “across both spot and derivatives markets,” with the ETH/BTC ratio pressing 0.0275 as traders rotate away from smart-contract beta into safer corners of the crypto complex. The firm’s verdict is blunt: “ETH is not the right asset for this macro,” citing an environment of rising Treasury yields, renewed inflation concerns and a market that is rewarding hard-asset narratives and cashflow clarity over long-duration tech bets.

Wintermute’s macro read is that crypto is now trading more like a high-beta extension of equity and credit risk, and that the current regime—re-accelerating inflation prints, stickier real yields and crowded trades in AI and growth stocks—is hostile to assets whose payoff is far out on the horizon. Ethereum, whose core bull case rests on future fee growth from DeFi, real-world assets, and L2 activity, fits that “long duration” profile, and the lack of a decisive on-chain usage surge leaves it particularly vulnerable when discount rates move higher. Recent technical work has been pointing to a choppy, range-bound ETH with only “measured optimism” toward levels like $2,300, warning that bearish MACD and fragile support around the low-$2,000s could make the path higher messy at best.

On Bitcoin, Wintermute is hardly pounding the table either. The firm cautions that being outright long BTC at current levels is effectively a macro bet that institutional investors will step back into spot and ETF markets despite higher yields and a still-uncertain inflation trajectory—something it thinks may be “difficult” until markets fully digest the shifting backdrop and the AI trade shows signs of cooling. In earlier reports, Wintermute argued that AI-linked equities and tokens have been “continuously absorbing available market funds,” leaving crypto in “high-volatility, low-spot-demand price discovery” as U.S. selling and ETF outflows bite.

That view dovetails with the firm’s broader 2026 outlook, where it has already declared the classic four-year crypto cycle “over” and replaced by a regime dominated by institutional capital flows and product rails such as ETFs and digital asset trusts. In that framework, neither halving narratives nor incremental protocol upgrades are enough; what matters is whether ETF mandates broaden, whether big allocators decide to treat BTC as macro collateral again, and whether secondary-market and token-launch activity (“DAT activity”) actually picks up.

For now, Wintermute’s message is that crypto is stuck in an awkward macro cross-current: liquidity exists, but it’s choosing AI and equities; yields are rising, making long-duration crypto bets less attractive; and structural inflows into both BTC and ETH are muted. In that mix, ETH’s combination of duration, still-unproven fee growth and fading narrative momentum makes it, in their words, “not the right asset for this macro,” while even BTC longs are, in effect, fading the bond market and betting that institutional risk appetite turns back toward digital assets before something in traditional markets snaps.

Bitcoin (BTC) price dropped to $76,500 on Monday, erasing nearly all of this month’s gains as fresh US-Iran war tensions soured the crypto market sentiment. This has led investors and traders to reevaluate their risks and stay cautious, with many recent buyers selling their BTC at a loss.

Key takeaways:

• Bitcoin short-term holders sold over 10,000 BTC worth approximately $770 million at a loss on Monday.
• Analysts agree that pushing Bitcoin’s price below $76,000 could trigger a fresh downtrend toward $65,000-$70,000.

Bitcoin’s “weak hands” realizing losses

Bitcoin has retraced 7% from its local high of $82,800 set on May 6. The rejection from the 200-day moving averages at $82,000, the daily close below the true market mean, and the short-term holder cost basis around $78,000 have cemented a more risk-off stance among Bitcoin investors.

Related: Bitcoin’s trend-defining battle starts at $74K support: Analyst

Onchain data from CryptoQuant showed that more than 10,000 BTC were transferred by short-term holders — investors who have held the asset for less than 155 days — to Binance at a loss on Monday.

These moves occurred with Bitcoin at roughly $76,900, about 2% below their average purchase price of $78,440, suggesting that recent buyers sent approximately $769 million in BTC to Binance at a loss.

This “reflects short-term holder stress, forced selling, or capitulation from weaker hands during a correction,” CryptoQuant analyst Amr Tah said in a QuickTake post on Tuesday.

Bitcoin: Transfer volume by STH in loss to Binance. Source: CryptoQuant

This activity underscores a familiar pattern of short-term speculators panic-selling during market dips, frequently realizing losses.

A similar occurrence in mid-November 2025 preceded a 15% BTC price decline to $78,400 from $96,000 in less than five days.

Additional data from Glassnode shows that more than “7.8M BTC are currently held at a loss,” a supply overhang that the market would need to “absorb before any sustained move higher becomes structurally credible.”

BTC total supply in loss. Source: Glassnode

Also accompanying Bitcoin’s slump are heavy outflows from US-based spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which have recorded negative flows for six out of the last eight days.

These investment products saw $648.6 million in net outflows on Monday, the largest withdrawal since Jan. 29.

Spot Bitcoin ETF flows table. Source: Farside Investors 

Global Bitcoin investment products also recorded $981.5 million in net outflows during the week ending May 15, suggesting declining institutional appetite for BTC.

“Markets are getting absolutely hammered,” analyst Alek_Carter said in an X post on Tuesday, referring to the large outflows from Bitcoin investment products, adding:

“Money is rotating out fast, panic is creeping in, and traders are clearly hitting the risk-off button hard.”

As Cointelegraph reported, record-low retail investor activity, aggressive selling in the futures markets and weakening spot demand are pulling down Bitcoin’s price to new May lows.

How low can Bitcoin price go?

The Bitcoin HODL Waves indicator, which tracks the age distribution of BTC holdings, suggests Bitcoin could bottom at $65,500-$70,500 if current market weakness continues. 

Historically, spikes in long-term holder activity and declining short-term speculation have coincided with major market bottoms before recoveries.

The chart below shows a stronger long-term holder base (the blue/purple bands are noticeably thicker), “reflecting growing institutional adoption,” CryptoQuant analyst Sunny Mom said in a Quicktake analysis on Tuesday. 

This suggests that the supply structure is structurally stronger in the current cycle than before, “which changes how BTC forms its bottom,” the analyst said, adding:

“Our predicted price range for this cycle’s bottom is $65.9K–$70.5K. If $70.5K holds, we’ll slowly grind out a bottom in the upper range.”

Bitcoin HODL wave indicator. Source: CryptoQuant 

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is printing the fifth consecutive daily red candle, suggesting that the “momentum is starting to shift back to the bears,” analyst Alex Marzell said on Monday in a post on X, adding:

“Bitcoin may come back to retest the breakout zone around $70K support.”

Echoing this sentiment, MN Capital founder Michael van de Poppe said this “doesn’t look great” for Bitcoin, adding that the price needs to hold support at $74,500-$76,000 “in order to get back some momentum in the markets.”

“If this area doesn’t hold, then we’re most likely cascading through the lows of the recent rally and test <$65,000 for support.” 

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: X/Michael van de Poppe

As Cointelegraph reported, a break below the 50-day SMA at $76,000 would increase the risk of the BTC/USDT pair dropping to $65,000. in the short term.

Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren has intensified scrutiny of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency’s push to charter crypto firms as national trust banks, arguing that such moves may violate banking law and blur the lines between banking and crypto activities.

In a letter addressed to OCC Acting Comptroller Jonathan Gould, Warren contends that the agency has approved at least nine national trust charters for crypto companies whose activities “appear to go far beyond the narrow set of activities permitted by law,” potentially breaching the National Bank Act. She has requested a full accounting: all national trust charter applications approved since December 2025, any conditional approvals, and all communications between the OCC and figures connected to the Trump administration, including President Trump, his family, and White House officials. Source: US Senate Banking Committee.

Warren—ranking member of the Senate Banking Committee—described the charter push as a bid by certain crypto companies to act as banks while avoiding the safeguards that come with banking status. “These companies are effectively crypto banks that want to evade the fundamental safeguards and obligations that come with being a bank,” she wrote, warning that the regulator’s approach risks consumers and the integrity of the banking system. The OCC did not provide an immediate comment when reached by Cointelegraph.

Key takeaways

• Senator Elizabeth Warren alleges the OCC has approved nine national trust charters for crypto firms that may exceed the National Bank Act, calling for full disclosures of approvals since December 2025.
• Kraken’s parent Payward filed on May 8 for a national trust charter, aiming to offer fiduciary custody and related services for digital assets under the Payward National Trust Company.
• A national trust charter permits custodial and fiduciary services without traditional deposit-taking or lending, potentially reducing regulatory burdens for crypto custodians.
• The debate sits within broader political and regulatory tensions, including Warren’s criticisms of perceived conflicts of interest and ongoing discussions around the CLARITY Act and related crypto legislation.
• Investors should monitor how, if at all, these charters affect custodial infrastructure, consumer protections, and the boundary between banking regulation and crypto activity.

Kraken bid on the OCC’s table, signaling a broader push for crypto custody

On May 8, Payward—the parent company of the cryptocurrency exchange Kraken—submitted an application to the OCC for a national trust charter. If approved, the charter would allow Payward to provide fiduciary custody and other services primarily for digital assets under the proposed Payward National Trust Company. This aligns with a broader pattern of crypto firms seeking formal, bank-like status to access regulated custodial services and potentially traditional financial rails without engaging in deposit-taking or lending, a hallmark of a national trust charter.

A national trust charter is distinct from a conventional bank charter. It would permit these providers to offer custodial and fiduciary services for clients’ assets while avoiding the full spectrum of deposit-taking and commercial lending requirements typical of traditional banks. The resulting regulatory regime could offer more clarity and oversight for digital-asset custody but may also raise questions about the adequacy of consumer protections and the precise scope of activities allowed under such charters.

Regulatory tensions and the politics of crypto banking

The push for national trust charters sits at the intersection of a broader regulatory debate over how the U.S. should oversee crypto-related financial services. Warren has been a vocal critic of perceived policy conflicts that connect political figures to the crypto industry. In recent weeks, she has pressed for clarifications in crypto market structure legislation—the CLARITY Act—and has urged regulators to slow or reconsider approvals around charter applications tied to political figures and their families, including references to World Liberty Financial, a Trump family–backed initiative that filed for a charter earlier in the year. Cointelegraph coverage.

From the regulator’s perspective, the central question is whether national trust charters strike an appropriate balance between enabling legitimate custody and ensuring robust consumer protections and financial stability. Critics warn that creating a parallel, crypto-specific banking lane could sow regulatory fragmentation if not harmonized with federal banking standards. Supporters argue that formal chartering could bring necessary discipline, tailor oversight for digital assets, and improve confidence for institutional participants seeking regulated custody services.

As the regulatory dialogue continues, lawmakers and industry participants will watch for concrete OCC actions: new charters granted, denials, or policy statements clarifying the framework for crypto custodians. In the meantime, the OCC’s current approach remains under close political scrutiny, with potential implications for market participants seeking regulated custody and for investors assessing the risk and governance of crypto infrastructure.

Cointelegraph requested comment from the OCC but did not receive an immediate response.

Earlier context around Warren’s crypto governance stance and related regulatory efforts is available in ongoing coverage from Cointelegraph, including notes on her push to curb perceived conflicts of interest and to shape crypto policy more firmly in Congress. For reference, see Warren’s remarks on financial policy and related reporting: Warren’s concerns about crypto bailouts.

5,800 users in two hours. One QR code. One bow that went viral.

Some platforms launch with a whitepaper. Some with a token. GraphDex launched with a hedgehog, a condom, and the co-founder of Ethereum bowing in respect.

A short video from Token2049 Singapore, recorded in September 2024, resurfaced across X this week at precisely the moment GraphDex went live. In this video, the project’s hedgehog mascot moves through the conference floor, greets attendees, and hands a branded condom to Vitalik Buterin. The condom carries GraphDex branding and a QR code that opens the app directly. Buterin takes it and then bows to the hedgehog.

Vitalik Buterin receives a branded condom from the GraphDex hedgehog mascot at Token2049 Singapore, September 2024. Video shows Buterin bowing to the hedgehog immediately after.

The clip sat dormant for over a year. Then the product launched – and everything changed.

The bow heard around crypto

In a space where Vitalik Buterin is treated as something between a philosopher-king and a meme, a moment of him bowing to a hedgehog mascot is not a small thing. It is the kind of image that crypto Twitter cannot ignore, doesn’t want to ignore, and will share without being asked.

The bow was brief, yet the reaction to it lasted longer.

Within two hours of GraphDex going live, the platform registered 5,800 users across its web app and Telegram mini-app. The clip had no destination in 2024; in 2026, it pointed to a live product, and that shift transformed a conference moment into a distribution mechanism that no marketing budget could replicate.

“We always believed the hedgehog would have a second moment. The product was ready. The clip found its timing.” – GraphDex representative

What Vitalik bowed toward

GraphDex is a unified crypto terminal built around a problem every active Solana trader knows intimately: too many tools, not enough time.

The platform consolidates Solana DEX trading, real-time token discovery, wallet and social tracking, Polymarket-powered prediction markets, copytrading for prediction markets – a feature that does not exist on Polymarket itself – and AI-powered signal analysis into a single non-custodial interface.

The non-custodial architecture, built on Privy infrastructure, means user funds stay in user-controlled wallets at all times. After FTX and Celsius, this is less of a feature and more of a baseline expectation. GraphDex built it in from day one.

The copytrading layer for prediction markets is the product’s most structurally novel element. Users can filter top forecasters by PnL and win rate and mirror their positions automatically — bringing the logic of copy trading to outcome-based markets for the first time at this scale.

The hedgehog is still out there

The clip continues to move through X, attaching itself to trading accounts, KOL feeds, and communities with no prior connection to GraphDex. Each share extends the loop: new viewers see the bow, scan the QR code, open the platform, and encounter the same dynamics that made the clip spread – narrative momentum, real-time signals, and fast-moving markets – now visible and actionable in one place.

About GraphDex

GraphDex is a unified crypto terminal combining Solana DEX trading, Polymarket prediction markets with copytrading, AI signal analysis, Bubble Maps, and non-custodial Privy wallet infrastructure.