Crypto World
Terra Classic price prediction as Terraform Labs files lawsuit against Jane Street
Terraform Labs’ bankruptcy administrator has filed a lawsuit in Manhattan accusing trading giant Jane Street of playing a key role in the 2022 collapse of Terra’s ecosystem.
Summary
- Terraform Labs has sued Jane Street, alleging the firm played a central role in the 2022 Terra collapse by accelerating the UST depeg and profiting from the fallout.
- The lawsuit claims Jane Street dumped 85 million UST shortly after Terraform withdrew liquidity, triggering panic that led to LUNA’s hyperinflation and a $40 billion market wipeout.
- Meanwhile, Terra Classic is consolidating near $0.000035, trading below its 50-day moving average, with $0.000032 acting as key support and $0.000038 as major resistance.
Terraform blames Jane Street insider trading for collapse
The complaint alleges that Jane Street front-ran the depegging of UST and helped trigger the death spiral that wiped out roughly $40 billion in market value.
According to the filing, Terraform quietly withdrew 150 million UST liquidity from Curve in May 2022. Minutes later, Jane Street allegedly dumped 85 million UST, accelerating the depeg. Panic spread quickly, UST lost its dollar peg, and LUNA hyperinflated due to its mint-and-burn mechanism.
The suit further claims a Jane Street trader, a former Terraform intern, shared insider information in a private group chat dubbed “Bryce’s Secret.” The firm allegedly avoided more than $200 million in losses and profited during the meltdown. Jane Street has denied the allegations, calling the lawsuit baseless.
Terra Classic price analysis
Amid the renewed headlines, Terra Classic (LUNC) is trading around $0.00003497 at press time on the daily chart. Price remains below the 50-day simple moving average, which sits near $0.00003790, signaling that the broader trend is still tilted to the downside.
The chart shows a series of lower highs since early January, confirming bearish structure.
However, recent candles suggest short-term consolidation after a sharp early-February sell-off that briefly pushed price toward the $0.00003000–$0.00003200 support zone. That area now acts as key near-term support.
On the upside, immediate resistance sits at $0.00003600, followed by the 50-day SMA near $0.00003790. A sustained break above that level could open the door toward $0.00004000.
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator is slightly positive at 0.05, suggesting mild capital inflows, but not strong accumulation. Unless LUNC reclaims its moving average, rallies may face selling pressure.
A breakdown below $0.00003200 would likely expose the psychological $0.00003000 level again.
Bitcoin mining hardware maker Canaan has purchased Cipher Mining’s 49% interest in a trio of Texas mining projects for $39.75 million, expanding its mining interests.
The transaction covers joint venture entities Alborz LLC, Bear LLC and Chief Mountain LLC, together known as the “ABC Projects,” according to a Monday announcement. After the deal, Canaan holds a 49% stake while partner WindHQ, a renewable energy infrastructure company, retains 51%.
“By increasing our exposure to high-quality, low-cost operational power assets in Texas, we are aligning our proprietary technology with critical infrastructure to drive long-term efficiency and scale,” said Nangeng Zhang, chairman and chief executive officer of Canaan.
The three facilities are already operational, with a combined 120 megawatts of power capacity and about 4.4 exahashes per second (EH/s) of hashrate. Canaan also acquired 6,840 Avalon A15Pro mining rigs from Cipher. Those machines were previously deployed at Cipher’s Black Pearl location, which is being converted into an artificial intelligence and high-performance computing (AI-HPC) data center.
Related: Bitcoin mining difficulty rebounds 15% as US miners recover from winter outages
Canaan funds deal with $40 million share issuance
The purchase was financed through shares. Canaan issued 806,439,900 Class A shares, equal to 53,762,660 American Depositary Shares (ADS), priced at $0.7394 per ADS and subject to a six-month lockup.
According to the announcement, the Texas sites benefit from electricity costs below $0.03 per kilowatt-hour and include wind-powered generation and grid demand-response capabilities within the ERCOT power market. “ABC Projects feature industry-leading power pricing and offer a strong foundation for growth,” Zhang added.
Canaan reported a strong fourth quarter of 2025, with revenue rising 121.1% year-on-year to $196.3 million, as hardware shipments and mining output improved. Bitcoin (BTC) mining revenue climbed 98.5% to $30.4 million, increasing its treasury to 1,750 BTC. It shipped a record 14.6 EH/s of computing power and expanded installed hashrate to 9.91 EH/s, supported by a large institutional order in the United States.
Related: Bitcoin miners chase 30 GW AI capacity to offset hashprice pressure
Bitcoin miners turn to AI as margins tighten
Bitcoin mining companies are increasingly branching into AI and cloud computing as profitability pressures mount. Last week, MARA Holdings acquired a 64% stake in French infrastructure company Exaion, giving the company a foothold in AI services.
The move came amid a broader industry trend. Companies including Hive, Hut 8, TeraWulf and Iren are converting mining facilities and power capacity into data-center operations, and some players such as CoreWeave have already transitioned fully into AI infrastructure.
Canaan also said the new acquisitions align with its initiative to stabilize power grids amid rising data center demand.
Magazine: Bitcoin may take 7 years to upgrade to post-quantum — BIP-360 co-author
Crypto World
RedotPay stablecoin payments firm said to consider $1 billion IPO in New York: Bloomberg
RedotPay, a Hong Kong-based stablecoin payments upstart, plans to raise more than $1 billion in a U.S. initial public offering (IPO) that could value it at over $4 billion.
Sources close to the matter told Bloomberg that the company, which achieved unicorn status in September last year, has tapped banking heavyweights such as JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and Jefferies for a potential New York listing as early as this year.
Details of the IPO, such as the exact size and timeline, are still fluid, and more banks could jump in.
RedotPay raised $194 million in 2025, capped by a Series B in December, and now claims more than 6 million registered users. Backers read like a Who’s Who of crypto venture capital: Accel, Pantera Capital and Blockchain Capital among others.
If it pulls off the IPO, it’d be one of the biggest from Asia’s stablecoin scene.
Stablecoins are digital tokens with values pegged to an external reference such as the U.S. dollar. These tokens are widely used in trading cryptocurrencies and to move capital across borders.
Hong Kong, like other advanced nations, has warmed up to these tokenized versions of fiat currencies and is ready to license its first stablecoin issuers next month.
Doctor Profit compared Saylor’s approach to the 2000 dot-com bubble, and added that buying blindly without strategic selling is a “reckless” trading approach.
Strategy has spent years aggressively buying Bitcoin, pitching the move as a long-term, high-conviction bet, but critics say that the approach has crossed from bold into reckless.
Popular analyst Doctor Profit, for one, drew parallels to the dot-com bubble, while warning that the firm risks repeating history amid today’s AI-fueled frenzy.
Blind Faith vs Market Timing
In a recent post on X, Doctor Profit stated that he repeatedly expressed his concerns with Strategy’s co-founder, Michael Saylor, that nonstop Bitcoin accumulation, financed and backed by issuing company shares, was “playing with fire.” According to the analyst, those warnings were dismissed and even mocked.
He pointed out that since then, Strategy’s share price has fallen by roughly 75% from its highs, while Bitcoin itself is down 50% from its peak. With Saylor’s reported average BTC entry around $76,000 and the asset trading near $63,000, the position sits roughly 17% below cost.
Doctor Profit also argued that, despite accumulating since 2020, the company has never realized meaningful profits or executed serious strategic selling. Meanwhile, its stock has suffered a substantial drawdown, exposing shareholders to extreme volatility with little relief.
Looking back at past cycles, Doctor Profit said Saylor’s experience during the 2000 dot-com collapse offers a warning. He explained that intense excitement surrounding AI today may be creating a similar late-cycle setup, increasing the chance of history repeating itself by 2026.
Rather than de-risking as these signals emerged, Doctor Profit claimed that the executive chairman doubled down, increasing exposure while ignoring red flags.
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“I truly wish MSTR and Saylor the best, but I cannot understand how reckless this trading approach is in such a late-cycle environment. Markets reward discipline, not blind belief in Bitcoin. There is always time to buy and time to sell. I hope he will listen next time instead of mocking my warnings.”
The fresh concerns come against the backdrop of Strategy’s latest Bitcoin purchase, which is smaller than its past billion-dollar buys but consistent with its long-standing accumulation plan. The firm spent just under $40 million to acquire 592 BTC at an average price of $67,286, which pushed its total holdings to 717,722 BTC.
The purchase was funded through equity sales. Nearly 298,000 Class A shares were sold via the firm’s at-the-market program over the past week, according to an update cited by Walter Bloomberg. Strategy still has substantial capacity to raise more capital through future ATM sales, as $37.4 billion in securities remain available, including MSTR and STRK stock.
Billions at Risk
As Bitcoin’s price decline deepened, earlier warnings from Michael Burry and Zac Prince drew fresh attention to the fragility of BTC treasury business models. For instance, Burry recently said BTC’s drop increases the risk of broader stress across crypto and related financial markets. “The Big Short” investor had said that further downside could severely impact companies that accumulated Bitcoin at higher prices, potentially leaving firms like Strategy billions underwater and cut off from capital markets.
Former BlockFi CEO, Prince, also questioned the sustainability of BTC treasury models, saying they rely on financial engineering rather than core business fundamentals and may struggle to justify valuations without real operating revenue.
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Hong Kong-based stablecoin payments company RedotPay is reportedly weighing a US initial public offering (IPO) that could raise more than $1 billion and value the company at over $4 billion.
The company is working with JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and Jefferies on a potential New York listing that may occur as early as this year, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday, citing people familiar with the matter. Terms remain under review and could change, while additional banks may join the underwriting group, per the report.
Founded in April 2023, RedotPay provides stablecoin-linked payment cards, multicurrency wallets and international payout services. According to its website, the company has 6 million users and handles about $10 billion in annualized payment volume.
RedotPay declined to comment on the matter.
Related: Binance stablecoin reserves have sunk 19% since November
RedotPay raised $194 million in 2025
The US IPO plans follow a year of fundraising for RedotPay, which raised a total of $194 million in 2025 across three rounds. In March, it closed a $40 million Series A funding round led by Lightspeed, with participation from HSG and Galaxy Ventures.
In September, the stablecoin payment company said it became a fintech unicorn after closing a $47 million strategic round that saw investment from Coinbase Ventures, alongside continued backing from Galaxy Ventures and Vertex Ventures and participation from an undisclosed global technology entrepreneur.
It later closed a $107 million Series B in December. The round was led by Goodwater Capital, with participation from Pantera Capital, Blockchain Capital and Circle Ventures, as well as continued support from HSG.
Related: Standard Chartered sticks to $2T stablecoin call but trims T-bill impact
Stablecoin sector attracts significant funding
Stablecoin-focused companies drew significant investment in 2025 as venture capital continued flowing into payment and infrastructure providers. In August, investors committed almost $100 million to the sector, including a $40 million Series B for Switzerland-based M0 led by Polychain Capital and Ribbit Capital, and a $58 million raise by US startup Rain to build tools enabling banks to issue regulated stablecoins.
Funding activity continued through the year. In October, Chicago-based Coinflow secured $25 million in a Series A led by Pantera Capital to expand cross-border settlement services, while CMT Digital later launched a $136 million fund with allocations for stablecoin startups, including Coinflow and Codex.
Big Questions: Is China hoarding gold so yuan becomes global reserve instead of USD?
As the AUD/USD chart shows, the Australian dollar posted strong performance in January and February. Since the start of the year, the “Aussie” has gained nearly 6% against the US dollar.
Among the bullish drivers:
→ The policy stance of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which raised its cash rate to 3.85% in February 2026, while many other central banks are considering rate cuts.
→ A resilient labour market. Australia’s unemployment rate remains at 4.1%, giving the RBA room to keep interest rates elevated.
→ Commodity markets. High prices for gold, iron ore and energy exports continue to support Australia’s trade balance.
However, an important CPI report is due tomorrow. Inflation data could inject additional volatility into the market and test the strength of the Australian dollar.
Technical Analysis of the AUD/USD Chart
In early January, we identified an ascending channel that remained valid through February 2026, as bulls managed to break above resistance line R. Note that:
→ The upper boundary of the channel acted as resistance (resulting in the formation of peaks A–B).
→ The median line served as support.
An important observation is that after forming peak B, the market quickly fell back below the level of peak A. This suggests insufficient buying pressure to sustain the advance.
At the same time, the recent candlestick with a long upper wick — a potential bull trap and a bearish signal — may indicate that the AUD/USD reaction to the CPI report could be negative.
In that case, a break below the channel’s median line cannot be ruled out, opening the way for a test of the psychological 0.7000 level.
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Canaan (EXCHANGE: CAN) has expanded its Texas footprint by snapping up Cipher Mining’s 49% stake in three existing mining operations, broadening its exposure to low-cost, scalable power assets and reinforcing its strategic tilt toward utility-scale mining. The deal covers Alborz LLC, Bear LLC, and Chief Mountain LLC—collectively known as the ABC Projects—and elevates Canaan’s stake to 49% while WindHQ maintains a 51% majority. The trio of facilities already operates with about 120 megawatts of grid-supplied power and delivers roughly 4.4 exahashes per second (EH/s) of Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) mining capacity. In addition to the equity transfer, Canaan acquired 6,840 Avalon A15Pro mining rigs from Cipher, which had been deployed at Cipher’s Black Pearl site, earmarked for conversion into an AI-HPC data center. This move aligns with a broader industry trend of miners diversifying into AI and cloud-based services as margins tighten.
The deal was financed through a significant equity issuance. Canaan issued 806,439,900 Class A shares, equivalent to 53,762,660 American Depositary Shares (ADS), priced at $0.7394 per ADS, with a six-month lockup period. The consideration signals a deliberate capital-structure adjustment to support the expansion of the Texas sites and the ongoing transition of Cipher’s Black Pearl asset. According to the filing, the Texas facilities benefit from electricity costs below 3 cents per kilowatt-hour and include wind-powered generation plus grid-demand response within the ERCOT market. The price tag attached to the acquisition reflects both the tangible hardware upgrade and the strategic value of anchoring a low-cost power profile in a state known for competitive energy economics.
Executive Chairman and CEO Nangeng Zhang framed the move as a step to “align proprietary technology with critical infrastructure to drive long-term efficiency and scale.” The strategic emphasis is clear: gain control of high-quality, affordable power assets that can sustain increased mining activity while positioning the business to capitalize on future opportunities in AI-enabled data center services. The ABC Projects bring with them a proven operational footprint in Texas, a state that remains central to miners’ growth plans given its energy mix, regulatory environment, and capacity constraints elsewhere. While Cipher’s stake transfers to Canaan, WindHQ’s stake remains, ensuring continued governance in the ventures’ direction.
Beyond the specific transaction, Canaan’s financials for the fourth quarter of 2025 augmented the narrative of a company navigating a higher-capacity, higher-visibility mining cycle. The firm reported a 121.1% year-over-year rise in revenue to $196.3 million as hardware shipments and mining activity improved. Bitcoin (BTC) mining revenue reached $30.4 million, contributing to a treasury that expanded to 1,750 BTC. The company shipped a record 14.6 EH/s of computing power during the quarter, lifting installed hashrate to 9.91 EH/s—an uptick buoyed by a large institutional order in the United States. The results underscore a sector that remains sensitive to hashprice dynamics but is able to leverage scale, efficiency improvements, and strategic site selection to sustain growth during a period of consolidation.
Canaan’s foray into AI and broader industry dynamics
As margins compress, several Bitcoin mining firms have started to pivot toward AI, cloud services, and data-center operations. The market has seen a wave of moves where traditional mining capacity is repurposed or expanded to serve AI workloads and HPC tasks. For instance, the company MARA Holdings recently took a 64% stake in Exaion, a move that signaled a broader appetite for AI-enabled infrastructure within the ecosystem. Other players, including Hive, Hut 8, TeraWulf, and Iren, have similarly explored converting mining power into AI-ready capacity, with CoreWeave having already transitioned to a broader AI-infrastructure model. These shifts reflect a strategic emphasis on building diversified, resilient revenue streams alongside traditional block rewards.
In this environment, Canaan’s acquisition strategy and the associated asset mix—low-cost Texas power, wind generation, and ERCOT grid-demand responsiveness—position the company to weather price volatility while scaling operations. The combination of tangible capacity (120 MW, 4.4 EH/s) and tangible assets (6,840 Avalon A15Pro rigs) provides a foundation for longer-term efficiency gains as the AI-HPC data-center conversion progresses at the Black Pearl site and potentially beyond. The emphasis on stabilizing power grids amid rising data-center demand also speaks to a broader industry concern: how miners can contribute to, and benefit from, grid reliability and demand-response programs while maintaining competitive economics.
As the sector evolves, investors are watching how these capital-intensive expansions translate into sustainable cash flow, given the cyclical nature of crypto markets and the sensitivity of mining economics to electricity prices, hardware costs, and BTC price movements. The Texas projects’ economics—anchored by sub-3-cent per kWh power and wind-assisted generation—could provide a durable edge if energy costs remain favorable and the broader demand for AI infrastructure accelerates. In this context, Canaan’s blend of mining capacity with AI-ready hardware represents a notable example of how traditional crypto mining players are recalibrating to operate as diversified data-center operators.
What to watch next
- Close of the Cipher Mining stake transfer and the resulting governance arrangements within the ABC Projects.
- Deployment and operational ramp of the 6,840 Avalon A15Pro rigs within the ABC Projects and the Black Pearl AI-HPC conversion timeline.
- Updates on electricity pricing, ERCOT capacity commitments, and any new wind- or grid-support arrangements affecting Texas operations.
- Canaan’s ongoing quarterly results and how the ABC Projects contribute to revenue, hash rate, and treasury growth going into 2026.
Sources & verification
- Press release: Canaan Inc. acquires Cipher Mining’s interest in multiple operational mining projects totaling 4.4 EH/s in West Texas (PR Newswire).
- Financial performance notes referencing Q4 2025 results, including revenue, BTC mining revenue, and hash rate milestones (as reported and summarized by industry coverage).
- Details of the ABC Projects’ capacity (120 MW) and hash rate (4.4 EH/s) as described in the acquisition announcement.
- Notes on the financing structure, including the share issuance and lockup terms described in the press materials.
Strategic expansion in Texas: Canaan’s ABC projects and AI ambitions
The acquisition of Cipher Mining’s minority stake in the ABC Projects marks a deliberate push by Canaan to anchor its growth in a high-visibility, cost-efficient energy corridor. By taking 49% of the three facilities and leaving WindHQ with 51%, the company gains operational influence while preserving a clear minority stakeholder structure that can support scale without over-leveraging the venture. The combined 120 MW of capacity and 4.4 EH/s of hashrate position the ABC Projects as a meaningful contributor to Canaan’s overall production capacity, particularly as the firm expands use cases for its hardware in AI and HPC environments.
The 6,840 Avalon A15Pro rigs acquired from Cipher bring additional compute power into the fold, with deployment tied to Cipher’s Black Pearl site’s AI-HPC conversion. This move exemplifies a broader miner-led shift from pure crypto mining toward diversified data-center capabilities that can power AI workloads, cloud services, and other compute-intensive tasks. The rationale is grounded in the long-run economics of power efficiency and load diversification, where operators can monetize flexible power usage through grid-demand-response programs while maintaining a robust hardware base to support both mining and AI tasks.
From a market perspective, the deal underscores how miners are reinterpreting their assets in a world where energy costs and hashprice fluctuations can materially affect profitability. Texas remains an attractive destination not only for its competitive electricity rates but also for the regulatory and market infrastructure that supports demand-response programs. The ABC Projects’ wind-powered generation and grid integration through ERCOT are notable features that can help stabilize operating costs even as the broader crypto ecosystem faces cyclical pressures. For investors and builders, the move signals a continued emphasis on scalable, asset-light expansions that couple hardware with strategic power arrangements and diversified data-center economics.
Terraform Labs’ court-appointed bankruptcy administrator has filed a lawsuit against market maker Jane Street for allegedly using non-public information to profit from the 2022 collapse of the Terra ecosystem.
Summary
- Terraform’s bankruptcy administrator has sued Jane Street, alleging the trading firm used material non-public information to front-run trades during the May 2022 collapse.
- The complaint names co-founder Robert Granieri and traders Bryce Pratt and Michael Huang.
- A Jane Street spokesperson has denied all allegations.
The lawsuit was filed on Monday and accused Jane Street insiders, including its co-founder Robert Granieri, and employees Bryce Pratt and Michael Huang of “misappropriating confidential information and manipulating market prices.”
According to the heavily redacted complaint, Jane Street front ran Terraform’s liquidity moves around the Curve 3pool withdrawal and used the information it acquired to unwind hundreds of millions of dollars in UST exposure “that hastened the collapse of Terraform.”
The suit claims that Jane Street and Terraform first connected for over-the-counter trading in 2018, but that trading “did not take off until February 2022” when Jane Street deployed Bryce Pratt, a former Terraform intern, to establish lines of communication with his former colleagues at Terraform.
Pratt allegedly helped set up those channels due to his history as a former Terraform intern, which allowed him to “seamlessly pass information from Terraform to Jane Street.”
“Given Jane Street’s interest in cryptocurrency, Pratt leveraged the relationships he had developed at Terraform to feed material non-public information to Jane Street’s crypto desk,” the complaint said.
“Jane Street abused market relationships to rig the market in its favor during one of the most consequential events in crypto history,” Terraform’s court-appointed administrator, Todd Snyder, said in a statement to the Wall Street Journal.
The lawsuit seeks damages and an order requiring Jane Street to disgorge the profits it allegedly made through insider trading and market manipulation, along with interest, and calls for a jury trial.
In response, a Jane Street spokesperson has denied all allegations and told WSJ that the suit was a “desperate” attempt to “extract money,” and the firm will defend against these “baseless, opportunistic claims.”
“[..] It is well-established that the losses suffered by Terra and Luna holders were the result of a multibillion-dollar fraud perpetrated by the management of Terraform Labs,” the spokesperson said.
Terraform collapsed in May 2022 after its algorithmic stablecoin TerraUSD lost its dollar peg, which resulted in one of the crypto industry’s largest meltdowns as roughly $40 billion vanished from the market. Subsequently, Terraform filed for bankruptcy in 2024, while co-founder Do Kwon pleaded guilty to fraud charges and was sentenced to 15 years in prison.
The bankruptcy administrator also launched a lawsuit against Jump Trading in December and claims the firm entered into secret agreements with Kwon.
XRP price continues to trade under pressure as a persistent downtrend shapes short-term momentum. The token has struggled to break above descending resistance since the beginning of the month. This prolonged weakness has created uncertainty across the broader crypto market.
Despite the downturn, some investors view current levels as strategic entry points, forming the base for a potential recovery.
XRP Bottom In Sight
On-chain data shows XRP’s realized price now sits above the current market price. This metric indicates that the average holder is at a loss. When the market price falls below the realized price, assets are often considered undervalued from a historical perspective, marking a potential bottom.
Past cycles reveal that XRP rarely remains in this zone for extended periods. Similar conditions have preceded swift price rebounds. While no outcome is guaranteed, historical patterns suggest that undervaluation phases often attract accumulation and renewed buying interest.
Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.
How Are XRP Investors Acting?
Institutional investors remain notably active despite broader market caution. For the week ending February 20, institutions added $3.5 million worth of XRP exposure. This brought month-to-date inflows to $105 million, a figure unmatched by Bitcoin or Ethereum, which both recorded net outflows.
Sustained institutional demand reflects strategic positioning rather than speculative trading. Professional investors often deploy capital during periods of weakness. Continued inflows may provide liquidity support and strengthen the structural foundation for XRP price stabilization.
Large XRP holders also appear confident in the asset’s long-term outlook. Addresses holding between 10 million and 100 million XRP accumulated more than 170 million tokens over the past week. This buying activity occurred during a 9% price decline.
Accumulation during falling prices signals conviction among influential wallet holders. While the increase is not historically extreme, timing remains significant. Coordinated accumulation from whales and institutions may reduce circulating supply pressure and contribute to eventual upward momentum.
XRP Price Levels To Watch
XRP price is trading at $1.32 at the time of writing, remaining below a descending trendline established earlier this month. The asset continues to face technical resistance along this barrier. Without a clear improvement in broader market sentiment, XRP may struggle to break higher in the near term.
After losing support at $1.36, XRP now looks toward $1.28 as the next key level. Macro conditions worsened following US President Donald Trump’s 15% global tariff hike. Risk-off sentiment may weigh on digital assets. Continued pressure could push XRP toward $1.28 or even $1.21.
However, stabilization in global markets could shift momentum. Ongoing whale accumulation and institutional inflows may support recovery attempts. A breakout above the descending trendline would signal structural improvement. If XRP clears $1.47 resistance, the bearish thesis would be invalidated, and bullish momentum could reemerge.
Digital asset manager Grayscale Investments has increased its allocation to Cardano in its diversified crypto holdings, signalling institutional interest in the smart contract platform even as broader market sentiment weakens.
Summary
- Grayscale Investments boosted its allocation to Cardano to about 20.2%, making ADA its third-largest holding.
- The move comes as Bitcoin fell below $65,000 following new tariff measures announced by Donald Trump, dragging the broader crypto market lower.
- Technically, ADA is trading near $0.257, with resistance at $0.30–$0.31 and key support at $0.24, while momentum indicators remain in bearish territory.
According to the latest portfolio breakdown, Cardano (ADA) now accounts for roughly 20.20% of the fund’s holdings, making it the third-largest allocation behind Solana (28.53%) and Ethereum (28.39%).
The adjustment highlights Grayscale’s growing confidence in Cardano’s long-term fundamentals at a time when digital assets are facing macro-driven volatility.
The rebalancing comes amid sharp turbulence across crypto markets. Bitcoin recently plunged below the $65,000 mark following fresh tariff measures announced by Donald Trump, triggering a broad risk-off move.
The sell-off spilled into altcoins, with Ethereum, Solana and Cardano all trading lower on the week.
ADA price analysis
Despite the institutional tailwind, ADA’s technical structure remains fragile. On the daily chart (ADA/USDT), the token is trading around $0.257, down nearly 2% on the session.
Price action shows a clear downtrend from January highs near $0.42, followed by a series of lower highs and lower lows into February.
After a sharp sell-off in early February that pushed ADA toward the $0.23–$0.24 zone, bulls managed a modest rebound toward the $0.30 level. However, that recovery stalled, establishing $0.30–$0.31 as immediate resistance. A sustained break above that zone would be needed to shift short-term momentum.
On the downside, $0.24 remains key support, with stronger structural support seen near $0.22, the recent swing low. A decisive break below $0.24 could open the door to a retest of that lower range.
Momentum indicators remain cautious. The Awesome Oscillator is still in negative territory, though the histogram shows fading bearish momentum as green bars gradually build. Meanwhile, the Balance of Power reading sits below zero, suggesting sellers retain near-term control.
While Grayscale’s increased allocation underscores long-term institutional conviction, ADA’s short-term trajectory will likely depend on whether broader market sentiment stabilizes following Bitcoin’s tariff-driven drop.
Bitcoin has slipped below the $63,000 level, extending its monthly decline to nearly 30%. The drop reflects more than short-term volatility. It shows deeper structural weakness building across the network and institutional flows.
This weakness is appearing even as Bitcoin enters its longest miner capitulation phase, year-on-year. At the same time, institutional demand through ETFs continues to deteriorate. Together, these forces are now pushing Bitcoin toward one of its most important support zones this cycle.
Bearish Pattern And Miner Income Collapse Explain Weakness
Bitcoin’s price structure has started to break down on the 8-hour chart. A head-and-shoulders pattern has formed, and the neckline of this pattern now sits near the $60,000 zone, making this level the most important short-term support.
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This technical weakness comes as miners continue selling aggressively. Glassnode data shows the miner net position change metric has remained negative continuously from January 9 through February 23. This 46-day stretch marks the longest uninterrupted miner capitulation phase in the year-on-year timeframe. The peak of this stretch was seen on February 6, two days after the BTC price bottomed around $60,400.
Miner capitulation happens when miners sell more Bitcoin than they accumulate. This usually reflects financial pressure rather than profit-taking.
BeInCrypto’s exclusive Dune dashboard helps explain the reason behind this shift. Bitcoin network revenue, which tracks transaction fees earned by miners, has collapsed sharply over the past year. Monthly fees fell from 194 BTC in May 2025 to just 65 BTC by February 2026. This represents a nearly two-thirds drop in miner income.
With earnings falling and BTC correcting, miners have fewer incentives to hold Bitcoin. Instead, they are forced to sell reserves, increasing supply in the market. This sustained selling pressure has weakened Bitcoin’s structure. But miners are not the only group stepping away.
Institutional demand has also started to deteriorate, raising new risks around the critical $60,000 support zone.
ETF Outflows And Realized Price Align With Bitget CEO’s Warning About Critical Support
Institutional demand through Bitcoin ETFs has weakened significantly in recent weeks. Bitcoin has now recorded six consecutive weeks of ETF outflows. This marks the longest sustained weekly exit period since spot Bitcoin ETFs launched.
These outflows signal that large investors are reducing exposure instead of accumulating.
Gracy Chen, CEO of Bitget, directly addressed this fragile setup yesterday, right before BTC lost $63,000. She said:
“Today, Bitcoin is trading in the $64,000–$66,000 zone, and we believe macro factors are doing most of the work. Selling pressure is still tangible and heavy, so the asset has become highly sensitive to headlines, and recent turbulence around tariffs has put even more pressure on risk sentiment,” she said.
She also identified the most important level now:
“On the technical side, we think $60,000 remains the key support level so far, while a move lower, caused by a significant macro event, or accelerating ETF outflows could drag the asset down to $50,000. Liquidity there is deep, and support is substantial, so we’d expect a bounce from either level and a renewed attempt higher,” she added.
Her statement highlights how closely ETF flows and macro pressure are now tied to Bitcoin’s structure. This risk becomes clearer when compared with Bitcoin’s realized price.
Realized price currently sits near $54,700. This level represents the average cost basis of all Bitcoin in circulation. Historically, Bitcoin tends to stabilize near this level because it reflects the market’s aggregate holding cost.
If ETF demand continues weakening and Bitcoin loses $60,000, the realized price could become the next major support zone. This makes the current BTC price region especially critical.
Bitcoin Price Levels Show Why The $60,000 Zone Is The Key
Bitcoin’s recent price action confirms the importance of the $60,000 zone, already highlighted by the Bitget CEO. This level previously served as support on February 6, around the time when miner capitulation reached its current cycle peak. The same level now aligns with a key Fibonacci retracement zone near $60,100.
This convergence makes the area both psychologically and technically important. If Bitcoin manages to hold above this zone, it could stabilize and attempt recovery.
However, a confirmed break below $60,000 would confirm the head-and-shoulders breakdown. Based on the pattern’s structure and technical retracement levels, this could trigger a decline toward $54,800. This level aligns almost exactly with Bitcoin’s realized price.
Gracy Chen’s warning reinforces why this zone matters. Her view that $60,000 remains key support, with deeper downside possible if ETF outflows continue, aligns closely with Bitcoin’s current technical structure. For now, Bitcoin stands at a decisive point.
Some strength returns if the BTC price recovers and reclaims the crucial resistance at $63,300, followed by $65,400. However, complete bearish structure invalidation remains out of bounds for now.
Miner capitulation continues to increase supply, while ETF outflows signal weakening institutional demand. Until these pressures ease, the $60,000 level remains the line separating stabilization from a deeper correction.
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