Crypto World
The Ripple Factor: Why SBI Is Prioritizing XRP Over Ethereum for Japanese ETFs
SBI Holdings has filed for Japan’s first spot Ripple XRP ETF, deliberately skipping Ethereum and targeting $32 billion in institutional assets. It is seen as a structural decision that reflects Japan’s regulatory environment and SBI’s decade-long XRP infrastructure investments as much as it does pure market preference.
The filing reveals two distinct products: a Crypto-Assets ETF tracking Bitcoin and XRP together, and a Digital Gold Crypto ETF allocating more than 50% to gold with added crypto exposure for risk-sensitive investors. Neither product includes Ethereum.
Japan’s Financial Services Agency has been advancing a framework that would reclassify crypto more explicitly as financial products. A shift that makes regulated ETF wrappers structurally viable for pension funds and insurance capital for the first time ever.
Why Ripple Over Ethereum? The Regulatory and Infrastructure Logic Behind SBI’s Decision
SBI’s choice is not an endorsement of XRP’s technology over Ethereum’s. It is a product of institutional infrastructure and regulatory fit that has been building in Japan for years.
SBI Ripple Asia, a joint venture between SBI Holdings and Ripple, has operated in Japan since 2016, giving SBI deep XRP liquidity access, established custody rails, and pre-existing compliance frameworks tied to Ripple’s payment network. Ethereum carries none of that domestic institutional weight in Japan’s specific market structure.
Yoshitaka Kitao, SBI Holdings’ CEO, has been one of Ripple’s most visible corporate advocates in Asia, and is making the XRP ETF filing a logical extension of a strategic relationship. SBI isn’t launching a Japan Crypto product opportunistically; it is converting existing infrastructure into a regulated investment wrapper.
The U.S. market moved from Bitcoin ETF to Ethereum ETF approval in sequence, partly driven by SEC precedent and Ethereum’s regulatory classification as a commodity. Japan’s FSA is navigating a different framework, one where XRP’s deep local adoption and SBI’s Ripple partnership make it a more straightforward regulatory argument than Ethereum would be.
If approved, the XRP-linked ETF would be a first for Japan, giving local investors regulated spot-style exposure without the risk of offshore exchange.
The regulatory clarity developing in major markets has accelerated institutional timelines globally, and Japan is moving on its own terms.
Discover: Top Crypto Assets for Portfolio Diversification in 2025
XRP Price Impact: $32 Billion Institutional Demand
The SBI filing is a medium-term demand catalyst, not an immediate price trigger. ETF approval timelines in Japan are measured in months, and the FSA’s reclassification framework is still in process. But the directional signal for institutional investment in XRP is unambiguous.
Japan’s FSA could advance the crypto reclassification framework by this year, so the $32 billion addressable market begins converting.
Broader altcoin ETF momentum is also building globally. Grayscale and VanEck are both advancing BNB ETF filings in the U.S., confirming that regulated altcoin exposure is now a product category, not an experiment. SBI is positioning Japan at that frontier.
Discover: Best Crypto Presales With Early-Mover Upside in 2025
The post The Ripple Factor: Why SBI Is Prioritizing XRP Over Ethereum for Japanese ETFs appeared first on Cryptonews.
Crypto World
Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC’s Recovery Hangs on One Critical Support Level
Bitcoin’s recovery has slowed after reaching a key resistance cluster, with the asset now consolidating beneath an important supply zone. The latest price action suggests that bulls are attempting to maintain momentum, but the market remains at a critical level where the next breakout or rejection could determine the short-term trend.
Bitcoin Price Analysis: The Daily Chart
On the daily timeframe, BTC is trading around $65K after rebounding from the $60K support region earlier this month. The recovery has brought the price directly into the first major supply zone between $65K and $67K, where sellers have started to emerge.
The most recent candles show consolidation inside this resistance area rather than an immediate rejection, which is generally a constructive sign for buyers. However, BTC still trades below the 100-day moving average near $72K and the 200-day moving average around $77K, indicating that the broader trend has yet to fully recover.
If buyers manage to reclaim the current supply zone, the next upside target would be the higher resistance region between $72K and $74K. This area aligns with the second supply zone, the 100-day moving average, and the lower boundary of the previously broken ascending channel, making it the next major hurdle for the market.
On the downside, the $60K-$62K area remains the key support zone. As long as BTC holds above this region, the recent recovery structure remains intact.
BTC/USDT 4-Hour Chart
The 4-hour chart highlights the recent rally into the $65K to $67K supply zone following a breakout from the ascending recovery channel. After reaching the upper boundary of the zone near $66.8K, BTC has entered a period of sideways consolidation.
The latest price action suggests that neither bulls nor bears currently have full control. The asset continues to hold above the former breakout region around $64K to $65K, while sellers have so far prevented a decisive move through the supply zone.
A breakout above $67K would strengthen the bullish case and could open the path toward the higher resistance area around $72K. Conversely, losing the $64K support region would likely trigger a deeper pullback toward the $61K to $62K demand zone.
For now, the short-term structure remains constructive as long as higher lows continue to develop above the recent breakout area.
Sentiment Analysis
The Binance liquidation heatmap shows a notable concentration of liquidity both above and below the current price, but the nearest and most significant cluster is located between $67K and $69K.
Since BTC is currently consolidating around $65K, this overhead liquidity zone could act as a short-term magnet. A push through the current supply region may trigger short liquidations and accelerate momentum toward the $68K to $69K area.
Meanwhile, a substantial liquidity pocket remains below the market, between $62K and $63K. Should BTC lose the $64K support area, the market could be drawn lower to collect this liquidity before establishing the next directional move.
Overall, the heatmap suggests that the market is currently trapped between two major liquidity pools. Given the proximity of the upper cluster and BTC’s ability to hold within the $65K to $67K resistance zone, the short-term bias remains slightly tilted toward an upside liquidity sweep into the $67K to $69K region before a larger directional decision emerges.
The post Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC’s Recovery Hangs on One Critical Support Level appeared first on CryptoPotato.
Crypto World
How It Works: Deconstructing Roobet’s Mission Uncrossable
The paradigm of crypto-native gaming has shifted significantly from complex, slow-layered decentralized applications (dApps) toward high-frequency, provably fair arcade mechanics. Within this digital ecosystem, proprietary gaming titles have established a distinct niche by blending classic gameplay loops with transparent cryptographic verification. A good example of this synthesis is the Mission Uncrossable game, an iterative, lane-based crash alternative that adapts the structural logic of classic obstacle-avoidance titles into a rigorous risk-management model.
For users seeking to transition from theoretical understanding to on-chain execution, analyzing the game requires looking past the visual presentation and focusing on probability distribution, volatility settings, and capital preservation strategies. This guide provides an analytical breakdown of how to play Mission Uncrossable while optimizing risk-adjusted exposure and maximizing conversion efficiency.
Understanding the Core Mechanics: How to Play Mission Uncrossable
At its core, the Mission Uncrossable game operates on a gamified multi-stage multiplier trajectory. The user’s objective is to navigate a digital asset—represented as a character traversing a multi-lane highway—across successive tiers of moving traffic. Each successfully negotiated lane applies an incremental multiplier to the initial stake. Conversely, if a collision occurs with passing traffic, the round terminates instantly, resulting in a total loss of the accumulated capital for that specific round.
To initiate an operational round, a participant executes a highly streamlined onboarding sequence designed to minimize friction and accelerate time-to-play:
- Capital Allocation: The user inputs a specific wager size. The platform allows micro-wagers (stakes below $0.01 scale the user interface into a low-risk testing mode), allowing for granular bankroll evaluation without significant capital drawdown.
- Difficulty Parameter Selection: Prior to deployment, players must select one of four distinct volatility configurations: Easy, Medium, Hard, or Daredevil.
- Multiplier Accrual: The player advances the asset lane by lane. Each successful step updates the real-time payout value based on the chosen risk curve.
- Cash Out: At any point before an adverse collision event occurs, the player can manually trigger a “Cash Out” sequence to lock in the achieved multiplier and secure the yielded funds directly into their platform balance for immediate withdrawal.
Difficulty Calibration and the Risk-Reward Matrix
The primary strategic lever available to the user is the difficulty configuration. Adjusting the difficulty tier directly alters the density and velocity vectors of the digital traffic, manipulating both the probability of survival and the steepness of the multiplier’s mathematical scaling.
| Difficulty Tier | Mathematical Volatility | Multiplier Progression Rate | Capital Preservation Approach |
| Easy | Low | Conservative, linear scaling | High-volume, low-margin compounding |
| Medium | Moderate | Balanced geometric scaling | Measured progression (Targeting 3–4 lanes) |
| Hard | High | Aggressive scaling | Small asset allocation targeting mid-tier milestones |
| Daredevil | Extreme | Exponential scaling | Asymmetric risk exposure; micro-wagers targeting max caps |
The Technical Infrastructure: Provably Fair and RNG Verification
For analytical publications on platforms like Blockonomi, establishing the technical integrity of the underlying code is paramount to building player trust and driving high-value user acquisitions. Unlike legacy online casinos relying on opaque, server-side Random Number Generators (RNG) that lack external visibility, Roobet’s proprietary catalog utilizes a Provably Fair cryptographic framework.
Every outcome within the game is predetermined by a deterministic combination of three distinct variables:
- Server Seed: Provided by the host platform and cryptographically hashed prior to the commencement of the round, preventing real-time manipulation.
- Client Seed: Generated by the user’s local browser architecture (and customizable manually), ensuring the operator cannot dictate or alter the random pathing unilaterally.
- Nonce: An automatically incrementing counter that tracks the exact number of wagers executed utilizing the current seed pair.
This algorithmic configuration allows any participant to extract the SHA-256 hash post-round and independently verify that the lane generation and collision thresholds were mathematically absolute. The platform maintains an optimized Return to Player (RTP) profile that minimizes the structural house edge common to traditional video slots, making it a highly attractive destination for mathematically minded players.
Strategic Frameworks for Capital Preservation
Because outcomes are cryptographically randomized and independent, pattern recognition is mathematically invalid. Strategic optimization must therefore rely on structured risk management frameworks rather than predictive assumptions.
Low-Volatility Scalping (The Conservative Protocol)
Executed primarily on the Easy difficulty setting, this framework focuses on high-frequency, low-margin returns. The technical objective is to systematically cash out wagers after navigating only 1 to 2 lanes. While the returns per individual round are minor, the probability density heavily favors the user, allowing for the methodical compounding of a base bankroll while mitigating tail-risk exposure.
Asymmetric Risk Exposure (The Venture-Style Protocol)
Conversely, utilizing the Hard or Daredevil configurations shifts the objective from high win-probability to high asymmetric payoff. Under this protocol, users deploy micro-stakes with the intent of absorbing a high volume of low-cost losses in exchange for capturing an exponential multiplier outlier. This approach mirrors venture capital distribution, where a single successful high-multiplier event covers historical drawdowns.
Comparative Analysis: Discrete Step-Based Risk vs. Continuous Crash Curves
Traditional crypto crash games present a continuous, real-time depreciation of user agency; a multiplier climbs linearly or exponentially on a continuous timeline until an abrupt, singular crash event clears all active stakes simultaneously.
The structural variance implemented in how to play Mission Uncrossable introduces discrete decision points. Instead of a continuous time-based risk curve, risk is segmented into distinct operational steps (lanes). This architectural shift grants the user static windows of reflection between steps, changing the psychological profile of the game from rapid reaction-based survival to a calculated, step-by-step assessment of probabilistic risk. This enhanced sense of user agency acts as a powerful retention vector, driving sustained engagement over traditional, passive alternative titles.
Ready to test the mechanics? You can register seamlessly, deposit your preferred crypto asset, and execute your own risk-mitigation framework on the official Mission Uncrossable game at Roobet.
Crypto World
CZ Reveals the Crypto Playbook He Is Pitching to Governments
Binance founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ) is urging governments to tokenize their stock markets and issue national stablecoins, framing sovereign blockchain adoption as the next phase of crypto after meetings with Asian leaders and regulators.
He shared the advice in two posts, arguing that countries tokenizing equities can attract worldwide buyers while national stablecoins expand local currency usage on the blockchain.
Why CZ Wants Countries to Tokenize Stocks
CZ said he posted the recommendations after meeting several country leaders and regulators across Asia. He described the talks as making good progress but did not name the countries involved.
His pitch centers on real world assets (RWA). Tokenized equities turn company shares into blockchain tokens that can trade around the clock, a model now moving into practice.
Supporters say the approach offers fractional ownership, faster settlement, and access for buyers outside traditional brokerages. No country has yet tokenized its full stock exchange.
The wider RWA market has grown quickly. Tokenized real world assets on public blockchains topped $32 billion by mid-2026, up from about $6 billion a year earlier, RWA.xyz data shows.
Several exchanges already list tokenized stocks and ETFs tied to major U.S. companies. Boston Consulting Group projects tokenization could reach $16 trillion by 2030.
“Countries need to tokenize their stocks, allowing worldwide buyers. (RWA) Countries need to issue their own stablecoin(s), to expand their currency’s usage on the blockchain,” CZ shared.
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National Stablecoins and the Push Beyond the Dollar
CZ also wants governments to issue fiat-backed stablecoins. He argues this would extend a currency’s reach across blockchain rails and support its next growth phase.
Dollar-pegged tokens make up close to 99% of the roughly $315 billion stablecoin market, led by Tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC), DefiLlama figures show.
National versions could reduce that dependence while keeping monetary control closer to home.
The message builds on his advisory work. CZ serves as a strategic adviser to the Pakistan Crypto Council and is advising Kyrgyzstan on crypto as it builds a gold-backed stablecoin.
Binance also secured approval to develop a crypto marketplace in Kazakhstan.
Binance co-CEO Richard Teng pointed to rising demand. He said 36% of emerging-market users on the platform now keep at least half their money in stablecoins.
He framed the trend as evidence that the tokens already make everyday payments easier.
BNB, the token tied to CZ’s ecosystem, traded near $599, down about 1% over 24 hours.
Governments adopting his playbook could shape how fast traditional markets move on-chain.
The post CZ Reveals the Crypto Playbook He Is Pitching to Governments appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Crypto World
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) drops 3.1%, leading index lower
CoinDesk Indices presents its daily market update, highlighting the performance of leaders and laggards in the CoinDesk 20 Index.
The CoinDesk 20 is currently trading at 1774.43, down 1.5% (-26.19) since 4 p.m. ET on Tuesday.
Four of 20 assets are trading higher.

Leaders: UNI (+2.5%) and XLM (+2.3%).
Laggards: BCH (-3.1%) and ADA (-2.8%).
The CoinDesk 20 is a broad-based index traded on multiple platforms in several regions globally.
Crypto World
Trump nears Iran deal but crypto market ignores the news
The crypto market has remained under pressure even as reports have indicated that a U.S.-Iran agreement is moving closer to completion, with the total crypto market capitalization falling nearly 2% to $2.21 trillion.
Summary
- Trump said a U.S.-Iran agreement could be signed soon, but crypto prices remained under pressure.
- Bitcoin and major altcoins fell as investors focused on Fed policy and inflation risks.
- The Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, extending its 2026 policy pause.
According to a BBC report, U.S. officials have released details of a proposed memorandum that would extend the ceasefire between Washington and Tehran while reopening key shipping routes in the Middle East. The framework centers on restoring access through the Strait of Hormuz and links economic benefits for Iran to compliance with agreed conditions.
Speaking at the G7 summit in France, President Donald Trump said the agreement could be signed as soon as the following day. Reports also indicated that Vice President JD Vance is expected to attend the formal signing ceremony, underscoring support from senior U.S. officials.
Despite those developments, digital asset traders have shown little enthusiasm. Bitcoin and most major cryptocurrencies traded lower during the day, while investors continued reducing exposure to risk assets amid uncertainty over monetary policy and geopolitical events.
Investors remain focused on Federal Reserve policy
Alongside developments in the Middle East, market attention has turned to the Federal Reserve after policymakers left interest rates unchanged at their June meeting.
As previously reported by crypto.news, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at 3.50% to 3.75% on June 17. The Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to keep rates steady, extending a policy pause that has remained in place throughout 2026.
The decision matched market expectations, though investors have continued evaluating what it means for financial markets in the months ahead. Particular attention has shifted toward Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s first post-meeting press conference, where traders are seeking additional guidance on inflation and the possibility of tighter monetary policy later this year.
With borrowing costs remaining elevated and inflation concerns still present, analysts have noted that risk assets could struggle to attract sustained inflows regardless of improving geopolitical headlines.
Geopolitical progress has yet to lift crypto sentiment
Market participants have historically responded to major geopolitical developments because changes in global stability often influence investor demand for risk-sensitive assets such as cryptocurrencies.
Earlier reports showed that crypto prices recovered after Trump confirmed plans to pursue a peace agreement with Iran. Falling oil prices and expectations of reduced tensions also helped improve sentiment across several financial markets.
Even so, the latest price action suggests traders remain cautious while waiting for the agreement to be finalized. According to the BBC report, the proposed framework still requires formal approval and implementation, leaving room for unexpected developments before the deal takes effect.
For now, investors appear to be weighing the prospect of a U.S.-Iran agreement against concerns surrounding inflation, interest rates, and broader macroeconomic conditions. Until those uncertainties become clearer, the crypto market has shown little willingness to treat the approaching deal as a catalyst for a sustained rebound.
Crypto World
Bitcoin’s ‘capitulation’ weakens further as spot liquidity turns supportive: Glassnode
Bitcoin’s latest sell-off has triggered panic-driven selling activity, but on-chain data suggests the market is taking a less damaging route than it did during February’s correction. Glassnode reports that realized losses during the June decline peaked around $1.4 billion, well below the approximately $2.6 billion peak recorded in February.
While loss-taking appears to have eased in intensity, the broader “capitulation” picture still shows more selling than buying: the 30-day smoothed realized profit-to-loss ratio is hovering around 0.28, a very low reading for the year. The key question for traders now is whether strengthening spot demand can hold up as derivatives positioning cools.
Key takeaways
- Realized losses peaked at about $1.4B in June versus roughly $2.6B in February, according to Glassnode.
- The 30-day smoothed realized profit-to-loss ratio near 0.28 remains in capitulation territory, showing loss-taking still outweighs profit-taking.
- Glassnode says Binance spot orderbook depth has turned decisively toward bids, with a ratio of 0.8 and the widest bid dominance since December 2025.
- Derivatives positioning on Binance shows a sharp OI reversal, with open interest shifting to -$620M from $258M in the prior 24 hours.
- Realized cap is down but the seven-day change has narrowed, implying capital outflows may be slowing compared with earlier quarters.
Capitulation signals persist, but losses are smaller than February
Bitcoin’s realized profit-to-loss dynamics point to an environment where investors continue to lock in losses more often than they capture gains. In Glassnode-style realized metrics, that imbalance is often interpreted as a capitulation-like phase—an extended period where selling pressure dominates, even if the market fails to fully reset sentiment.
The 30-day smoothed realized profit-to-loss ratio at roughly 0.28 underscores that selling pressure hasn’t fully disappeared. However, the magnitude of realized losses tells a more nuanced story.
According to the data cited in the analysis, Bitcoin’s seven-day moving average realized loss peaked near $2.6 billion during February’s sell-off. During the June decline, realized losses reached about $1.4 billion before cooling to approximately $558 million. The gap between these two episodes suggests that—even with similar price zones—fewer participants are choosing to sell at a loss than they did in February.
Why the June episode may feel different for traders
Crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr. characterized the latest period as the second wave of panic selling in 2026. In his commentary, Adler argued the realized-loss evidence indicates capitulation is “almost twice as low” versus February.
That framing matters because “capitulation” is not only about price movement; it’s also about who sells, and how costly those sales are in realized terms. If realized losses are lower while the profit-to-loss ratio remains weak, the market may be experiencing a different mix of behavior: more caution and less aggressive churn, rather than the same level of forced liquidation seen earlier.
Glassnode’s capital flow metrics also support the idea of reduced pressure. The realized cap—measuring the aggregate cost basis of circulating Bitcoin—stands at about $1.07 trillion. It has declined 1.45% over the past 90 days, pointing to continued capital withdrawal, but the realized cap’s seven-day change is only -0.18%, indicating outflows are close to stalling relative to earlier periods.
Binance spot liquidity turns supportive as depth shifts to bids
Perhaps the most actionable development comes from the spot market’s orderbook behavior. Glassnode reports that Binance’s spot orderbook depth imbalance has flipped toward bids, with a ratio of 0.8. In other words, buy-side liquidity is exceeding resting sell orders by the widest margin since December 2025.
In practical terms, stronger bid depth can help absorb sell pressure during pullbacks, making it easier for the market to stabilize after dips. Glassnode’s analysis emphasizes this shift: the spot book is showing a stronger willingness to defend prices rather than distribute into rallies.
“Although this alone is insufficient to confirm a durable bottom, the emergence of strong buy-side depth suggests spot market participants are becoming more willing to defend current price levels.”
Derivatives cool off after a large open-interest reversal
Derivatives activity is adding further context. The analysis notes that Binance open interest (OI) experienced one of its largest daily reversals since April. Open interest moved to -$620 million from $258 million over the prior 24 hours, implying a net reversal of nearly $878 million.
Sharp OI reversals often indicate a rebalancing in leverage—either traders reducing exposure or positioning moving in the opposite direction after a crowded trade unwinds. While spot improvements suggest buyers are willing to step in, the derivatives reset may reduce the likelihood of downside acceleration driven by heavily leveraged sells.
Taken together, the combination of stronger spot depth and less aggressive derivatives positioning creates a more constructive near-term microstructure than during deeper capitulation phases.
Investors should watch whether this bid dominance in spot liquidity can persist as volatility returns, and whether realized losses keep trending lower without the realized profit-to-loss ratio slipping further into more extreme capitulation readings. The data also leaves an important uncertainty: stronger spot support does not automatically guarantee a durable bottom, so traders may need confirmation through continued stabilization in both realized metrics and orderbook depth.
Crypto World
Organizations Urge Congress to Ban Sports Betting on Prediction Markets in CLARITY Act
Several national gaming and tribal organizations and labor groups have reportedly called on the US Senate to add language “that explicitly prohibits event contracts tied to sports and casino-style gaming” in the Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act.
According to a Wednesday Semafor report, groups tied to sports betting, including the Indian Gaming Association and American Gaming Association have united against what they called gambling on prediction markets. They requested that the US Congress use the CLARITY Act now under consideration in the Senate to affirm that “sports betting falls outside the [Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s] remit and cannot be offered through prediction market platforms.”
“While our organizations may differ on other issues, including gambling policy, we are united in our concern that prediction markets have fueled the largest expansion of gambling in US history over the past 18 months — without voter approval or legislative authorization,” said the letter.

Source: Semafor
The pushback from the groups comes as the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) under Chair Michael Selig has claimed “exclusive jurisdiction” over prediction markets. Selig has led the financial regulator in supporting platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket against lawsuits by state-level gaming authorities.
“The CFTC was created to oversee commodities and derivatives markets, not gambling and not sports wagering,” said the letter. “It lacks both the expertise and the infrastructure to police nationwide sports betting, particularly when robust state and tribal regulatory systems already exist.”
The American Gaming Association reported that as of Wednesday, state gaming authorities had lost about $1.08 billion in tax dollars “since prediction markets began offering sports event contracts.”
Related: Kalshi adds software partner as it looks to boost prediction market surveillance
Some lawmakers expect the CLARITY Act, aimed at transferring some of the authority in regulation and enforcement of digital assets from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to the CFTC, to be passed out of Congress by August. The bill passed the House of Representatives in July 2025, but has faced delays due to concerns over stablecoin yield, ethics and tokenized equities.
Legal fight could land in US Supreme Court
Some experts and industry advocates anticipate that with Selig and the CFTC threatening to take any state-level authorities to court over crackdowns on prediction markets, the dispute between federal and state regulators could eventually be heard by the US Supreme Court.
The country’s highest court gave individual states the authority to regulate sports gambling in its 2018 decision in Murphy v. National Collegiate Athletic Association. However, Kalshi, Polymarket and the CFTC have largely argued that event contracts on prediction market platforms are “swaps” only subject to the agency’s jurisdiction.
Magazine: The end of anon? AI could unmask crypto’s hidden identities
Crypto World
Kalshi triggers billion-dollar clash with US gaming industry
Kalshi has fueled a billion-dollar dispute over sports betting regulation as trading activity on its platforms continues to surge.
Summary
- Gaming and tribal groups urged the Senate to block sports-related prediction contracts through the CLARITY Act.
- The American Gaming Association estimates prediction markets have cost states about $1.08 billion in tax revenue.
- Kalshi’s crypto perpetual futures platform generated over $5.5 billion in volume within two weeks of launch.
According to a report from Semafor, a coalition that includes the Indian Gaming Association, the American Gaming Association, and labor organizations has urged the US Senate to add language to the CLARITY Act explicitly preventing sports and casino-style event contracts from being offered through prediction market platforms.
In a letter to lawmakers, the groups argued that sports betting should remain outside the jurisdiction of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and continue to be governed by existing state and tribal regulatory systems.
The coalition stated that prediction markets have enabled what it described as the largest expansion of gambling in US history over the last 18 months without direct legislative approval.
The dispute arises as Kalshi continues expanding beyond its original prediction market business.
Earlier this week, the company disclosed that its perpetual futures products generated more than $5.5 billion in trading volume within two weeks of launch. The platform currently offers 11 crypto-linked perpetual futures contracts and is discussing additional products with regulators.
Gaming groups challenge federal oversight of sports contracts
Pressure from gaming organizations has increasingly centered on the CFTC’s position that prediction markets fall under federal commodities regulation. Under Chair Michael Selig, the agency has supported platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket in legal disputes involving state gaming regulators.
In their letter, the organizations argued that the CFTC was established to oversee commodities and derivatives markets rather than sports wagering. They contended that the agency lacks the operational framework and expertise required to regulate nationwide sports betting, particularly in areas where state and tribal authorities already maintain oversight.
Financial concerns have also become part of the debate. Data cited by the American Gaming Association estimates that state gaming authorities have lost roughly $1.08 billion in tax revenue since prediction market platforms began offering sports-related event contracts.
Meanwhile, lawmakers continue negotiating the final shape of the CLARITY Act, legislation designed to transfer portions of digital asset regulatory authority from the Securities and Exchange Commission to the CFTC. Although the bill passed the House of Representatives in July 2025, discussions over stablecoin yield products, ethics provisions, and tokenized equities have delayed final approval.
Kalshi expands crypto derivatives despite legal uncertainty
While the political fight intensifies, Kalshi has continued adding products tied to digital assets. Following regulatory approval of its BTCPERP contract on May 29, the company launched CFTC-approved Bitcoin perpetual futures in the United States and later expanded into XRP and Solana contracts.
The contracts allow traders to maintain positions without expiration dates while using funding payments designed to keep prices aligned with underlying spot markets. Although the structure can support continuous trading activity, leverage may amplify losses during periods of sharp market volatility.
Additional filings involving Dogecoin, Shiba Inu, Stellar, Hedera, and Hyperliquid’s HYPE token have also advanced through regulatory review processes, indicating that Kalshi’s crypto derivatives lineup may continue to grow.
Legal observers cited in the Semafor report believe the conflict between federal and state regulators could ultimately reach the U.S. Supreme Court.
The possibility stems from competing interpretations of the court’s 2018 Murphy v. National Collegiate Athletic Association ruling, which gave states authority over sports gambling, while Kalshi, Polymarket, and the CFTC maintain that event contracts offered on prediction market platforms qualify as swaps subject to federal oversight.
Crypto World
Litecoin Spot ETF Sits at $9M as Altcoin-ETF Era Tests Its Demand Thesis

The first US spot Litecoin ETF has been trading for nearly eight months, and the price of the underlying asset has barely moved. Litecoin sits near $45, down roughly 89% from its $400-plus peak, even as Canary Capital's LTCC fund and a parallel SEC/CFTC commodity classification cleared the last… Read the full story at The Defiant
Crypto World
Warsh’s first Fed meeting could be more about communication than rates
That philosophy could influence Wednesday’s meeting. Bank of America said there is a chance Warsh declines to submit his own projections to the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections, or SEP, a move that would highlight his long-standing criticism of the central bank’s forecasting process.
“If you’re not very good at something, you should do less of it,” Warsh said at a State Street conference last year, according to the Journal. “These forecasts have been abysmal. My dots wouldn’t be perfect either, so I wouldn’t give them.”
The SEP’s “dot plot,” which shows where policymakers expect interest rates to move, has become one of the most closely watched pieces of Fed communication. Bank of America, in line with the market, expects this week’s projections to show rates remaining unchanged through 2026 before modest cuts in 2027 and 2028.
The investment bank also expects policymakers to acknowledge rising inflation risks while signaling a lower willingness to look through price shocks than in recent years.
Warsh’s first press conference as chair is likely to attract the most scrutiny. Bank of America expects him to strike a patient tone, arguing that recent inflation pressures linked to geopolitical events, such as the conflict involving Iran, may prove temporary, while avoiding any signal that rate cuts are imminent.
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