Connect with us
DAPA Banner

Crypto World

Traders assign 53% odds BTC under $66K by Apr 24

Published

on

Crypto Breaking News

Bitcoin traded lower into Friday, sliding to around $65,530 after Thursday’s peak near $71,300 and erasing roughly $210 million in leveraged long exposure as the market faced an about $18.6 billion monthly options expiry. The Deribit options market priced in a bearish tilt, placing a 53% probability that BTC would stay below $66,000 by late April.

Traders also pushed the mood into risk-off mode as the delta skew for Bitcoin options advanced to about 15%, indicating puts were trading at a meaningful premium relative to calls. In parallel, the exit of a high-profile US policy voice and persistent questions about a US strategic approach to Bitcoin added to the cautious stance surrounding a sector still wrestling with regulatory and macro headwinds.

Key takeaways

  • Bearish options posture dominates near-term bets: The delta skew rose to 15%, signaling a notable premium for puts over calls and implying a cautious, protection-oriented trading environment.
  • BTC price action aligns with cautious expiry dynamics: BTC slid to about $65,530 on Friday, an 8% drop from Thursday’s $71,300, as the $18.6 billion monthly expiry weighed on market positioning and erased substantial bullish leverage.
  • Markets price a sub-$66k scenario by late April: The market assigned roughly a 53% implied probability that Bitcoin would trade below $66,000 by April 24, reflecting elevated uncertainty amid macro tensions and policy questions.
  • Put-heavy expiry signals risk-off sentiment into weekend: About $2 billion in put open interest existed at the $69,000+ level, with 97% of call options expiring worthless, underscoring a shift away from bullish bets during the expiry window.
  • Policy leadership shake-up fuels uncertainty: David Sacks has stepped down as crypto and AI czar, a development that compounds questions about the cadence of US policy on Bitcoin and related technology, including the prospect of a US Bitcoin Reserve.

Bitcoin options and price action amid a thickening policy fog

Friday’s price action arrived on the back of a broad options setup that favored hedging over risk-taking. BTC traded near $65,530, leaving behind an 8% retreat from Thursday’s highs of about $71,300. The monthly expiry, totaling roughly $18.6 billion, amplified the impact of positioning shifts: much of the bullish call premium appeared to fade as the session concluded, with open interest leaning toward protective puts.

In particular, a 66,000-strike put traded at 0.0566 BTC (roughly $3,730), highlighting hedging activity around the $66k level. The market’s read on April 24 pointed to a 53% chance BTC would remain under $66,000, reinforcing a cautious posture among traders heading into the weekend. Data from Deribit and related analytics show the tilt away from outright bullish exposure as traders seek downside protection in an environment clouded by macro and geopolitical developments.

The options landscape also reveals a clearer signal from the longer end of the curve: the delta skew — a measure of put vs. call demand — jumped to 15% on Friday. In balanced markets, the skew typically hovers between -6% and +6%. A +15% reading indicates a material willingness to pay up for downside protection, suggesting reduced conviction that the $66,000 threshold would hold through the coming days.

Advertisement

Looking at expiry dynamics, Friday’s session favored neutral-to-bearish strategies. About 97% of call options at the $68,610 expiry strike were void, while puts at $69,000 and higher eclipsed $2 billion in open interest. The combination of heavy put exposure and weak call participation underscores a mood shift away from outright bullish bets, with traders prioritizing risk management as headlines and policy signals remained unsettled.

Beyond the technicals, market chatter on social platforms reflected a tentative mood about potential geopolitical catalysts. WhalePanda, an active market observer on X, noted that risk markets could push higher if no major negative developments materialize before Monday, though a fresh geopolitical flare could quickly tilt sentiment back toward fear-driven selling.

For readers tracking the macro context, traders are watching a confluence of factors: a U.S. inflation backdrop, possible shifts in fiscal posture, and policy signals around crypto. Oil prices moved higher, with West Texas Intermediate approaching the $100 per barrel mark, while 5-year Treasury yields rose to about 4.07% from roughly 3.72% three weeks prior. The S&P 500 also traded near multi-month lows, underscoring a broader risk-off tone that has often weighed on speculative assets like Bitcoin.

Policy landscape, leadership changes, and the strategic reserve question

Contributing to the mood is a lack of clarity around U.S. policy direction for Bitcoin. In recent weeks, David Sacks, who served as the administration’s crypto and AI czar, stepped down from that role, though he remains an advisor to the President’s Council on Science & Technology. His departure follows earlier remarks that fueled investor expectations, including hints that the U.S. could acquire more Bitcoin through budget-neutral methods without tax increases. The shift adds another layer of uncertainty for market participants seeking a clear pathway for crypto policy in Washington.

Advertisement

The trajectory of any formal U.S. plan to establish a Bitcoin reserve or similar strategic holdings remains unclear. Reports and commentary around a potential “US Bitcoin Strategic Reserve” have circulated in policy circles, but concrete details and timelines have yet to emerge. As policy ambiguity persists, investors are inclined to treat any bullish narratives with caution until clearer signals surface from lawmakers and regulators.

For broader context, readers may recall related discussions about crypto taxation and exemptions. Earlier reporting noted lingering gaps in a proposed crypto tax framework and exemptions for Bitcoin, underscoring how policy developments continue to shape market sentiment and risk appetite.

As the policy debate unfolds, investors should watch for concrete comments from policymakers on whether any strategic holdings or reserve-like program will materialize, and how such moves might interact with existing regulatory frameworks and market infrastructure.

What to watch next for traders and developers

Looking ahead, the key questions center on sentiment recovery versus continued caution. If geopolitical tensions ease and no fresh negative headlines emerge, the options market could recalibrate, potentially narrowing the delta skew and stabilizing the front-month expiry pace. Conversely, any new developments on U.S. crypto policy or a surprise shift in the global macro landscape could reassert a risk-off tone and keep downside hedges in demand.

Advertisement

Traders will also be assessing whether the market’s current pricing aligns with longer-term narratives, including Bitcoin’s role as a macro hedge or as a high-beta risk asset within a diversified portfolio. The ongoing tension between macro headwinds and crypto-specific catalysts suggests volatility could persist as market participants await clearer policy signals and more durable liquidity conditions.

The immediate takeaway is clear: exterior forces—policy signals, geopolitical headlines, and macro surprises—will continue to dictate Bitcoin’s near-term path. As long as uncertainty remains elevated, risk management will likely stay at the forefront of trading decisions, with the options market serving as a barometer of traders’ willingness to protect against drawdowns rather than chase outright upside.

For ongoing coverage, readers should monitor updates on U.S. crypto policy, any announcements related to a potential Bitcoin reserve, and the evolving reaction of equities and macro markets to fresh headlines. If policy clarity arrives or geopolitical tensions shift, the market could recalibrate quickly, offering new opportunities for both traders and builders in the crypto space.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

Advertisement

Source link

Continue Reading
Click to comment

You must be logged in to post a comment Login

Leave a Reply

Crypto World

2 Reasons Why $35 Is a Critical Juncture for Hyperliquid (HYPE) Price

Published

on

Hyperliquid (HYPE) price is trading at $38.27, down 2.31% on the day, as a completed double top pattern and a dense liquidation cluster at $35.03 raise the odds of an accelerated leg lower.

The token has failed to hold gains above $42.67, and the price is now consolidating. Two independent signals now define the near-term trend line.

HYPE Long Traders Should Be Worried

The HYPE liquidation heatmap shows a dense band of leveraged long positions clustered around $35.03. Cumulative long liquidation leverage at that level totals $27.36 million. 

A move below $35.03 would trigger the forced closure of those positions in rapid succession. This would create mechanical selling pressure that could accelerate any decline well beyond the initial breakdown.

Advertisement

Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

HYPE Liquidation Heatmap.
HYPE Liquidation Heatmap. Source: Coinglass

The heatmap shows relatively thin liquidation stacking between $38 and $35, suggesting the price could slice through that range with limited friction. The absence of significant long-side leverage above $39 further limits the likelihood of a demand-driven reversal before the $35.03 test arrives.

Selling Pressure Set Dominates HYPE

The Klinger Oscillator (KVO) is currently reading 8.09K on the daily chart, sitting just above the zero line with a clear downward trajectory. The signal line (green) has already turned lower, and the KVO (blue) is converging toward a bearish crossover. 

The Klinger Oscillator measures the difference between two volume-weighted EMAs of price to gauge whether money is flowing into or out of an asset. When it rises above zero, buying pressure dominates; when it falls below zero, selling pressure takes control.

The indicator peaked near 25K in early March, coinciding with HYPE’s rally to $43.76. Since then, momentum has declined in three successive lower highs, a pattern of deteriorating buying pressure that mirrors the price action. 

Advertisement
HYPE KVO.
HYPE KVO. Source: TradingView

A confirmed cross below zero on the KVO would shift volume-weighted momentum from bullish to bearish. Historically, on the HYPE daily chart, both prior KVO zero-line breaks preceded drawdowns. 

The 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level sits at $36.83, offering the first meaningful demand zone before price reaches the $35.03 liquidation cluster. Should the KVO break below zero while the price is below $36.83, the path to $32.33 — the 0.618 Fibonacci level — becomes the primary scenario.

HYPE Price Levels To Watch

The daily chart shows HYPE has completed a double top breakdown, now underway. Price is currently sitting at $38.27, hovering around the support at the same level. 

The pattern’s full downside projection is calculated from the breakdown point at the $35.03 neckline. This points HYPE to $21.64 on a confirmed breakdown, matching the 37.49% decline annotated on the chart.

HYPE Price Analysis.
HYPE Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

Holding $35.03 is therefore non-negotiable for bulls. Only a daily close below it would confirm the double top and open the door to $32.33 first, then $28.69. 

For the bearish thesis to be invalidated, HYPE would need to reclaim $38.80 and then push through $42.67 with conviction. A break above $42.67 would negate the double top structure entirely, shifting the bias back toward the $47.15 resistance.

Advertisement

The post 2 Reasons Why $35 Is a Critical Juncture for Hyperliquid (HYPE) Price appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Source link

Continue Reading

Crypto World

Bitget’s Gracy Chen says $1t US stock wipeout is speeding up macro reset

Published

on

Bitget’s Gracy Chen says $1t US stock wipeout is speeding up macro reset

Bitget CEO Gracy Chen says a $1t single‑day US stock wipeout is accelerating a global macro risk reset, while lower leverage helps Bitcoin act more like a neutral portfolio allocation than a pure risk punt.

Summary

  • Over $1 trillion was wiped from US stocks in a single day as risk assets sold off.
  • Bitget CEO Gracy Chen says the slide has accelerated a global “reassessment of macro risks.”
  • Bitcoin’s smaller drawdown and lower leverage hint at growing status as a neutral allocation.

In the wake of a sharp US equity selloff that erased more than $1 trillion in market value in a single session, Bitget CEO Gracy Chen says the rout is forcing investors to reprice macro risk at a much faster clip while Bitcoin (BTC) is starting to behave more like a neutral, portfolio-level allocation than a pure risk-on punt. According to ChainCatcher, the CEO’s remarks are the latest on top of a broader drawdown that has already knocked trillions off US benchmarks since President Donald Trump’s second-term tariff agenda reignited inflation fears and hit tech-heavy names. As of Friday morning, Bitcoin was trading around $66,500, down roughly 4% on the day but still outpacing major stock indices on a relative basis.

Gracy Chen: $1t US stock selloff shows Bitcoin becoming neutral allocation

Chen argued that the current move is less about idiosyncratic crypto stress and more about global portfolios digesting a new regime of higher energy prices, stickier inflation, and geopolitical conflict spilling over into capital allocation decisions. “This round of adjustment reflects that global markets are reassessing macro risks at a faster pace,” she said, adding that as oil spikes again, “the impact of geopolitical changes is no longer limited to the energy market but is beginning to more directly affect global capital allocation.” The comment comes as strategists at Bloomberg and elsewhere flag how renewed tariff salvos and conflict risk have turned the post-2024 equity boom into what one Bloomberg analysis called a “$1 trillion wreckage,” even as Bitcoin’s institutional scaffolding has largely held.

Advertisement

Despite warning that Bitcoin will “still maintain high volatility in the short term,” Chen highlighted that the asset’s behavior this week has been “relatively robust” compared with previous episodes when risk appetite collapsed. She pointed to a sharp reduction in derivatives leverage as a key reason: “The overall leverage in the crypto market has significantly decreased, thereby limiting the scale of forced liquidations that typically amplify downward pressure during market stress.” That fits with recent flows data showing Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen bouts of outflows but not the kind of capitulation that marked prior crashes, while Bitget’s own protection and risk systems have been tightened as volatility climbed.

For Chen, the resilience is sending a signal about how Bitcoin is being used. “In an increasingly fragmented macro environment, Bitcoin is starting to be viewed by some portfolios as a more neutral allocation choice,” she said. That echoes her earlier comments that recent drawdowns are “tightly linked to the macro cycle,” with investors rotating between crypto, equities, and gold as they navigate Trump’s tariff-led policy shock and rising odds of a US recession. According to a recent crypto.news story, US markets have wiped out $9.6 trillion in value since Trump’s second inauguration, even as Bitcoin has repeatedly bounced after single-day drops of 1%–5%, underlining its evolving role in a world where macro risk is now the dominant driver of asset prices.

In earlier coverage, crypto.news detailed how a previous wave of selling erased $1.1 trillion from digital assets in just 41 days as leverage cascades intensified the downside, a backdrop that makes today’s more orderly drawdown stand out. Another recent story examined how the same tariff and inflation shock that hit tech stocks has rippled through crypto, while a separate report tracked how Bitcoin’s price has stayed comparatively resilient even as US equity indices flirt with bear-market territory. For live market data on Bitcoin, readers can follow its price page on crypto.news, alongside dedicated pages for other major assets involved in these rotations, including Ethereum, XRP, Solana, and Dogecoin.

Advertisement

Source link

Continue Reading

Crypto World

California Governor Newsom Signs Prediction Market Insider Trading Order

Published

on

California, US Government, United States, Prediction Markets

California Governor Gavin Newsom signed an executive order on Friday, expanding rules to curb public servants and those close to them from benefiting from insider trading on prediction markets tied to political or economic events they can influence or are privy to.

The order prohibits “gubernatorial appointees,” public officials appointed to office by the governor of the state, from using “confidential or non-public information” gleaned from performing their duties to profit from related prediction markets.

Newsom’s executive order also extends the prohibition to include spouses, family members or former business partners of the appointed officials from using non-public information to profit. “Public service should not be a get-rich-quick scheme,” Newsom said. He added:

“At a time when Trump’s Washington is riddled with ethical failures and insider profiteering, California is drawing a bright line: If you serve the public as a political appointee, you serve the public — period. We’re not going to tolerate this kind of corruption in California.”

California, US Government, United States, Prediction Markets
Governor Newsom’s executive order on government insiders using non-public information to profit from prediction markets. Source: California Governor

An announcement from Newsom’s office listed several instances of political insiders using non-public information to profit from prediction markets, including six suspected political insiders who profited from US strikes on Iran.

Newsom’s office also cited another case of suspected insider trading, which occurred in January, after one Polymarket trader netted $410,000 betting that the US would arrest former Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro hours before his capture.

Advertisement

Prediction markets have come under scrutiny from US lawmakers, who argue that political insiders are using the platforms to unfairly benefit from their positions and are potentially threatening national security by wagering on sensitive events like war and elections.

Related: Detroit set to enter Michigan‘s battle against Coinbase prediction markets

US lawmakers accelerate prediction market crackdown after insider allegations surface

Texas Congressman Greg Casar and Connecticut Senator Chris Murphy introduced the “Banning Event Trading on Sensitive Operations and ​Federal Functions (BETS OFF) Act” in March 2026 in response to the prediction market insider trading allegations.

The bill seeks to prohibit government insiders from using prediction platforms to profit from markets tied to war or death. 

Advertisement
California, US Government, United States, Prediction Markets
Congressman Greg Casar announces the “Bets Off Act.” Source: Congressman Greg Casar

US Representative Adrian Smith and Representative Nikki Budzinski also introduced similar legislation in March, titled the “Preventing Real-time Exploitation and Deceptive Insider Congressional Trading (PREDICT) Act.”

The legislative proposal prohibits the US President, lawmakers and other high-ranking government officials from betting on prediction markets.

Magazine: Train AI agents to make better predictions… for token rewards