Crypto World
Trap Ahead As Whales Dump $30 Million?
Cardano price has entered a critical phase after confirming a bearish breakdown. The token has already lost key support, and the technical structure now points toward deeper downside risk. Yet, even as large holders continue selling and avoid re-entering, smaller investors are aggressively buying the dip.
This creates a dangerous split in the market. Whales appear to be stepping aside, while retail investors are stepping in. The key question now is whether retail is buying the bottom — or walking into the next leg lower.
Whales Dump 120 Million ADA Before Breakdown — And Still Refuse to Buy Back
Cardano’s recent price drop of nearly 5% over the past 7 days did not come without warning. The largest whale cohort holding between 100 million and 1 billion ADA began reducing holdings days before the head-and-shoulders breakdown happened.
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On February 19, this group held about 2.54 billion ADA. By February 23, their holdings had fallen to 2.42 billion ADA. This represents a drop of around 120 million ADA, roughly 30 million.
This selling started even before the head-and-shoulders breakdown confirmed on February 22. In other words, whales reduced exposure while the pattern was still forming, suggesting they anticipated further downside. More importantly, whales have not started buying back.
This absence of accumulation matters more than the selling itself. When large investors expect a recovery, they typically begin re-accumulating near support levels. Their refusal to do so signals continued caution.
This raises a critical question. If whales are staying away, why are smaller investors suddenly stepping in aggressively?
Retail Buying Surges 640% Even As Profitability Signals More Downside Risk
Exchange flow data reveals a dramatic shift in retail behavior. On February 21, ADA exchange outflows totaled around $344,450. By February 23, outflows surged to $2.55 million. This marks a massive 640% increase in just two days.
Exchange outflows happen when investors withdraw coins into private wallets. This usually signals buying and holding rather than preparing to sell. Retail investors are clearly buying the dip as whales have been clearly selling.
However, another key metric suggests the correction may not be finished yet. The Percent of Total Supply in Profit indicator shows how much of the circulating supply is currently profitable. This metric dropped to just 6.06% on February 12, marking its lowest level in three months.
It later recovered to around 11% before the breakdown and now sits near 8.45%. Even though profitability remains low, it is still about 40% higher than the recent bottom. This matters because markets often continue falling when profitability remains above extreme capitulation levels.
This suggests Cardano may still have room to decline further.
This creates a clear contradiction. Retail investors are accumulating aggressively, but profitability and whale positioning both signal continued caution. The ADA price chart now shows exactly how this conflict could resolve.
Cardano Price Targets $0.23 Unless Bulls Reclaim Critical Resistance
Cardano has now confirmed a breakdown from a head-and-shoulders pattern on the 8-hour chart. This pattern typically signals a shift from accumulation to distribution and often leads to further downside.
Cardano recently lost the key support level at $0.266 and is now trading near $0.265. This level has already failed to provide a strong recovery. Even the Smart Money Index (SMI), which tracks the positions of informed investors, is diverging from the signal line as the ADA price broke support. This pattern aligns with whale skepticism and suggests an immediate rebound might not be on the cards, as retail thinks.
The next immediate support sits near $0.259.
If this level breaks, Cardano could fall toward $0.233. This represents an additional 12% downside from current levels and aligns with the full projection of the breakdown pattern. The broader structure remains bearish unless Cardano can reclaim higher resistance levels.
The first sign of strength would appear only if Cardano recovers above $0.276. However, true bullish invalidation requires a move above $0.293. Until then, the trend remains tilted toward further downside.
Crypto.com has received conditional approval from the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) to charter Foris Dax National Trust Bank, taking a significant step toward becoming a federally regulated qualified custodian.
Centralized cryptocurrency platform Crypto.com has received a conditional approval from the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) to establish Foris Dax National Trust Bank, d.b.a. Crypto.com National Trust Bank.
This development advances the firm’s ambition to become a federally regulated qualified custodian, according to an official announcement. Once fully approved, Foris Dax National Trust Bank will provide custody, staking, and trade settlement services under the stringent oversight of the OCC.
Crypto.com’s move aligns with a broader industry trend where crypto firms are pursuing regulatory approvals to enhance their credibility and expand service offerings.
For instance, Anchorage Digital recently launched regulated ‘Stablecoin Solutions’ to cater to institutional needs, while CME Group is set to offer 24/7 crypto futures trading, showcasing the industry’s shift towards regulated offerings.
The move also comes as the global crypto custody market is projected to reach over $4 trillion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 23.6% from 2025 to 2033, according to Grand View Research.
Kris Marszalek, CEO of Crypto.com, emphasized the significance of this regulatory milestone in a statement.
“This conditional approval is the latest testament to both our commitment to compliance and to providing customers trusted and secure services they expect from Crypto.com,” said Marszalek. “This milestone brings us a major step closer to meeting leading institutions’ needs for a one-stop-shop qualified custodian under a gold standard of federal oversight.”
Headquartered in Singapore, Crypto.com offers a wide selection of crypto services, including trading, payments, and financial products. The platform has amassed over 150 million users worldwide, according to the platform’s website.
The OCC, a U.S. federal agency responsible for regulating and supervising national banks, has been actively involved in providing regulatory clarity for crypto-related financial services.
This article was generated with the assistance of AI workflows.
Bitcoin (BTC) closed a weekly candle below its 200-period exponential moving average (EMA) for the first time since October 2023. The weekly close ended a technical uptrend that lasted for 882 days.
The shift in trend renews focus on BTC’s onchain cost-basis levels and its historical interaction with the key moving average across previous cycles, framing a broader recovery timeline based on past market behavior.
The weekly trend may flip to resistance for Bitcoin
The 200-week EMA tracks Bitcoin’s long-term trend and has historically separated expansion phases from the deeper corrective periods. On the weekly chart, BTC closed below the average near $67,628, ending a support streak that began in late 2023.
Crypto analyst Rekt Capital noted the development, stating,
“This technically means that the EMA has been lost as support and that price could turn it into resistance on any upcoming recovery.”
Previous cycles show that reclaiming the 200-weekly EMA has required time. In 2018, Bitcoin traded below the level for roughly 14 weeks before regaining it.
During the Covid-led March 2020 liquidity shock, the recovery took about eight weeks. In 2022, BTC remained under the average for nearly 30 weeks. Across these instances, the average duration below the 200-weekly EMA was approximately 17 to 18 weeks.
Momentum indicators also reflect the cooling of longer-term investor participation. Last week, Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. noted that entity-adjusted liveliness peaked in December 2025 after BTC reached an all-time high near $126,000 in October.
Liveliness measures the ratio of coin days destroyed to coin days created, adjusted for the internal transfers. The metric has since declined below its 30-day and 90-day moving averages, while the 90-day remains above the 365-day at 0.02622. Similar rollovers in 2020 and 2022 preceded extended accumulation phases lasting one to two years.
A sustained decline in the liveliness metric typically signals reduced spending activity and slower capital rotation, conditions that may lengthen the time required for BTC to rebuild a position and reclaim the 200-weekly EMA.
Related: Tether flashes Bitcoin bottom signal: Can BTC stage another 100% rally?
BTC realized price bands outline the demand zone
Bitcoin’s realized price, near $55,000, reflects the average onchain cost basis of all coins. The shifted realized price, near $42,000, projects this metric forward and historically highlights the deeper value areas during drawdowns.
With BTC trading between the 200-weekly EMA and the realized price band cluster, the region has historically acted as a long-term accumulation zone since 2015. Prior cycles show consolidation periods of six to eight months around these levels before broader upside continuation.
A reclaim of the 200-weekly EMA restores the price above a key long-term trend threshold. Failure to do so maintains focus on the $55,000 realized price and the lower shifted band near $42,000 as potential areas of liquidity concentration.
Related: Bitcoin traders diverge over BTC price strength with $60K in sight
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
The crypto market will welcome tokens worth more than $317 million in the final week of February 2026. Three major projects, Jupiter (JUP), Humanity (H), and Grass (GRASS), will release previously restricted tokens into circulation.
Token unlocks are crucial events in the crypto market, influencing liquidity, price volatility, and overall investor sentiment. So, here’s a breakdown of what to watch.
1. Jupiter (JUP)
- Unlock Date: February 28
- Number of Tokens to be Unlocked: 253.47 million JUP
- Released Supply: 3.33 billion JUP
- Total supply: 7 billion JUP
Jupiter is a decentralized liquidity aggregator on the Solana blockchain. It optimizes trade routes across multiple decentralized exchanges (DEXs) to provide users with the best prices for token swaps with minimal slippage.
On February 28, Jupiter will unlock 253.47 million JUP, valued at approximately $36.18 million. The altcoins represent 7.94% of its released supply. This marks a substantial increase from Jupiter’s usual monthly unlock of 53.47 million tokens.
Jupiter will direct 38.89 million JUP to the team. Furthermore, mercurial stakeholders will get 14.58 million JUP altcoins.
Notably, the team has reserved the largest portion, 200 million JUP, for Jupuary. It is Jupiter’s yearly airdrop initiative aimed at rewarding users and long-term community supporters.
2. Humanity (H)
- Unlock Date: February 25
- Number of Tokens to be Unlocked: 105.36 million H
- Released Supply: 2.41 billion H
- Total supply: 10 billion H
Humanity (H) is a decentralized identity protocol that utilizes biometric palm recognition, zero-knowledge proofs, and blockchain to verify the authenticity of real human users without exposing their personal data. It features a native Proof of Humanity (PoH) consensus mechanism.
On February 25, the protocol will unlock 105.36 million tokens. The tokens are worth $16.74 million and account for 4.37% of the released supply.
The team will split the released supply three ways. The ecosystem fund will receive 50 million H. Furthermore, Humanity will allocate 42.86 million altcoins to identity verification rewards and 12.50 million to the foundation operations treasury.
3. Grass (GRASS)
- Unlock Date: February 28
- Number of Tokens to be Unlocked: 55 million GRASS
- Released Supply: 416.54 million GRASS
- Total supply: 1 billion GRASS
Grass enables users to monetize unused internet bandwidth. It leverages blockchain to reward participants in a privacy-preserving manner, fostering a global network for accessible data sourcing.
The project will release 55 million tokens on February 28. The supply is worth approximately $9.33 million. It represents 13.15% of the released supply.
The contributors will receive the entire unlocked supply. In addition to these, other prominent unlocks that investors can look out for in the final week of February include Plasma (XPL), Kamino (KMNO), EigenCloud (EIGEN), and more.
Meme coin volatility is back in focus as the third week of February 2026 delivers explosive short-term rallies. While large-cap assets struggle to establish a clear direction, select low-cap tokens are posting double- and even triple-digit gains.
However, with rapid price expansions comes heightened correction risk. Thus, BeInCrypto has analysed three such meme coins that are pivotal to watch in the final week of February.
Siren (SIREN)
SIREN price has surged 100.5% over the past week, trading at $0.279 at the time of writing. The meme coin is benefiting from renewed investor optimism. Declining exchange outflows indicate holders are retaining tokens, a signal often associated with strengthening short-term bullish momentum in crypto markets.
The Chaikin Money Flow indicator has climbed above the zero line, reflecting rising capital inflows. Sustained buying pressure could support further upside. If momentum continues, SIREN price may retest its all-time high of $0.386. A breakout above that level could open the path toward $0.465.
Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.
However, rapid gains increase the likelihood of profit taking. A shift in sentiment could push SIREN below the $0.258 support level. Losing this threshold would weaken the bullish structure. In that scenario, the meme coin could decline toward $0.179, delaying any attempt to reach new highs.
Not in Employment, Education, or Training (NEET)
NEET price surged 75% in the past 24 hours, trading at $0.0249 at the time of writing. The sharp rally caught the broader crypto market off guard. Elevated trading volume and social media traction have fueled momentum, positioning the altcoin for potential continuation if demand remains steady.
Sustained buying pressure has strengthened NEET’s short-term structure. A confirmed move above $0.0258 could support further upside toward $0.0329 in the coming days. The meme coin’s base of 14,100 holders relative to its $24 million market cap signals active community participation, often a catalyst for volatility.
However, rapid price expansion increases correction risk. If buying pressure fades, profit booking may trigger a pullback. Holding $0.0188 support would preserve recovery prospects. A breakdown below that level could drive NEET toward $0.0158, invalidating the bullish outlook and signaling broader weakness.
BAN emerged as one of the stronger-performing meme coins this week, rising 34% despite broader crypto market weakness. This divergence from overall market losses highlights relative strength. Sustained decoupling from bearish sentiment could attract short-term traders seeking alternative upside opportunities in volatile digital assets.
BAN’s correlation with Bitcoin stands at -0.34, indicating it often moves opposite the leading cryptocurrency. This inverse relationship can benefit BAN during Bitcoin pullbacks. Continued negative correlation may support the ongoing uptrend, potentially driving BAN price toward $0.1617 and extending gains to $0.1835.
However, improving Bitcoin price momentum could alter this dynamic. If broader crypto sentiment strengthens, BAN’s inverse correlation may limit upside. A decline below $0.1108 would weaken the bullish structure. Sustained selling pressure could push the meme coin toward $0.0913, invalidating the current recovery outlook.
Editor’s note: As the AI boom accelerates, Nvidia sits at the heart of the conversation about how quickly hardware and software teams scale deployment. This editorial provides a concise context for the press release that follows, focusing on the broader market momentum, the role of data centers in AI infrastructure, and the potential implications of forward guidance for investors and traders in tech and beyond. While this note does not add new facts, it frames the lens through which Nvidia’s earnings will be digested by crypto traders and institutional investors who closely watch AI spending trends, capex cycles, and regional risks.
Key points
- Nvidia continues to be a focal point for AI infrastructure spend, with hyperscalers driving data center demand.
- Rubin, Nvidia’s next-generation platform, is a key area of investor focus alongside the Blackwell ramp and gross margin trajectory.
- Geopolitical risk remains a consideration, with export controls in China presenting potential upside if restrictions ease.
- Forward guidance and near-term revenue expectations are closely watched as drivers of momentum in the AI trade.
Why this matters
Nvidia’s earnings preview signals how AI infrastructure investment could shape market dynamics across technology, finance, and enterprise computing. The year ahead will test whether data center demand, platform innovations, and global capex cycles sustain the AI momentum that has underpinned recent market rally attempts and portfolio allocations.
What to watch next
- Rubin ramp progress and its impact on long-term profitability.
- Any developments on China export restrictions and potential upside if eased.
- Guidance clarity on 2027 AI infrastructure spending and data center revenue trends.
Disclosure: The content below is a press release provided by the company/PR representative. It is published for informational purposes.
Nvidia Earnings Set to Test AI Trade Momentum
Nvidia Earnings Set to Test AI Trade Momentum
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates – February 23, 2026: Nvidia’s upcoming earnings report is poised to become one of the most significant events on the global financial calendar, reflecting its position at the centre of the artificial intelligence revolution.
“In the same way Apple once defined the smartphone era, Nvidia now represents the AI era,” said Zavier Wong, Market Analyst at eToro. “Its earnings are no longer just a tech sector event — they are a market-wide catalyst that can influence diversified portfolios globally.”
Wall Street expects quarterly revenue of approximately USD $65–66 billion, representing around 68% year-on-year growth, with earnings per share forecast at USD $1.52–1.53. Data centre revenue is projected to approach USD $60 billion, underscoring sustained demand from hyperscalers including Microsoft, Amazon, Google and Meta. Collectively, these companies are expected to allocate between USD $650–660 billion in capital expenditure in 2026, much of which is tied directly to AI infrastructure.
Beyond US technology giants, sovereign AI investment is emerging as a meaningful growth driver. Countries such as the UAE and Saudi Arabia, alongside several European nations, are accelerating domestic AI cloud development. This segment alone could contribute more than USD $20 billion to Nvidia’s annual revenue in 2026, providing further diversification of its revenue base.
Demand continues to be supported by Nvidia’s Blackwell architecture, which management has previously indicated is effectively sold out through mid-year. Market attention is now turning toward Rubin, the company’s next-generation platform unveiled at CES. Gross margins are expected to recover toward the mid-70% range following temporary pressure during the Blackwell ramp-up, a key signal for long-term scalability and profitability.
However, China remains a notable risk factor. Current guidance assumes no H20 chip sales into the region, meaning any easing of export restrictions would represent upside potential. For now, restrictions continue to act as a headwind.
Nvidia shares have traded broadly flat over the past six months, and investors are increasingly focused on forward guidance rather than headline results.
“The real driver of Nvidia’s share price is guidance,” Wong added. “Markets want confirmation that AI infrastructure spending is still in its early innings, especially as questions grow around the sustainability of industry-wide capex.”
Investors are looking for Q1 FY2027 revenue close to USD $75 billion, gross margins back in the mid-70% range, and clearer visibility on the Rubin ramp. Meeting those expectations could reignite momentum across the AI trade, while any shortfall may trigger volatility extending well beyond Nvidia itself.
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FIFA World Cup organizers are reportedly considering moving this year’s tournament out of Mexico after the death of a crypto-laundering Mexican cartel kingpin led to a wave of violence from his supporters.
Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, otherwise known as “El Mencho,” ran the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) and was killed on Sunday during clashes between his organization and Mexican authorities.
The 59-year-old was reportedly injured during a firefight in the town of Tapalpa, and died while being transported to Mexico City.
His death resulted in an outpouring of violence from supporters. This included the burning of vehicles and buildings across the country, including in Guadalajara, a scheduled host of this summer’s World Cup.
As a result, rumours began to circulate that the city could be pulled from the tournament’s list of venues. Indeed, the host of Ticket Talk, Scott Friedman, claims a contact within FIFA informed him that games will be moved out of Mexico if the situation doesn’t improve in the next week or two.
Bitcoin investor and private fund founder Mike Alfred also claimed that “credible chatter” informed him that the cartel violence has led FIFA to consider moving games slated to take place in Mexico to the US and Canada.
Read more: Up to 127 years for CEO who laundered Mexican cartel funds with bitcoin
The violence has led to countries issuing warnings against travelling to affected regions of Mexico, and the US warning its citizens in the Jalisco region to seek shelter and stay inside.
FIFA is yet to publicly comment on the situation in Mexico. Protos has reached out to FIFA for comment and will update this piece should we hear back.
El Mencho laundered drug funds with crypto brokers
Cervantes founded the CJNG after working his way up the cartel ranks, killing rivals along the way. It was a notoriously violent, heavily armed organization that has been responsible for numerous massacres.
The drug lord was designated as a Kingpin in 2015 and his drug trafficking enterprise was recognised as one of the most powerful criminal groups in Mexico.
The US reward for information leading to his arrest was set at $15 million.
Read more: UK ‘El Chapo’ faces 120 years in US prison over bitcoin-for-drugs ring
Studies led by TRM Labs found that the CJNG has been utilizing crypto to convert drug funds into stablecoins. It was then sent to various wallets, withdrawn from exchanges, or spent as crypto.
In 2022, the Drug Enforcement Administration reportedly discovered that the CJNG had used Binance to move up to $40 million worth of cryptocurrency made through its cocaine and methamphetamine sales.
A Mexican broker was sentenced to eight years in prison for organizing a series of crypto laundering hubs across the US that took cash from the CJNG’s drug sales and converted it into crypto.
TRM Labs has also documented how Chinese money laundering brokers help out these cartels, as well as Chinese suppliers that sell them drug-related chemicals in exchange for crypto.
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Editor’s note: The mix of rapid crypto adoption and stringent governance in MENAP demands thoughtful, values-driven innovation. This editorial preview examines how structured, Sharia-aligned products can widen access without compromising transparency or risk controls. By highlighting Binance’s Sharia Earn initiative, we explore how Islamic finance principles and blockchain technology intersect to create clearer contracts, responsible yield, and broader participation. In a region projected to host trillions in Islamic finance assets, responsible design is not optional—it’s essential for sustainable growth.
Key points
- Sharia Earn provides defined contracts, governance oversight, and halal investment channels within Binance’s framework.
- Certified by Amanie Advisors and designed with a Wakala structure and underlying Binance Earn tech.
- Launched with BNB, ETH, and SOL as the initial assets.
- Ramadan-driven campaign highlights the move toward compliant, transparent product design in the region.
Why this matters
Structured, values-aligned innovation in MENAP helps turn digital finance into a trusted, inclusive ecosystem. By coupling Islamic finance tenets with blockchain mechanics and governance oversight, Sharia Earn demonstrates how new products can deliver clarity on risk, returns, and eligibility. With Islamic finance assets forecast to reach trillions by 2029, this approach could broaden participation while preserving sharia compliance and investor protection.
What to watch next
- Ramadan campaign impact on awareness and adoption of Sharia Earn.
- Ongoing governance reviews by Sharia scholars and the Amanie Advisors framework.
- Any future product iterations designed to maintain compliance while expanding access.
Disclosure: The content below is a press release provided by the company/PR representative. It is published for informational purposes.
Designing an Inclusive Financial Future: Why Structured, Values-Aligned Innovation Matters in MENAP
As digital assets continue to mature globally, the conversation in the Middle East is shifting. It is no longer just about access to crypto. It is about how that access is structured. In a region where financial systems have long been shaped by strong governance frameworks and clearly defined compliance standards, innovation cannot be disruptive. It must be inclusive by design. That is where structured, Sharia-aligned financial innovation enters the picture, as a framework for clarity, transparency, and broader participation. This approach is especially significant considering that global Islamic finance assets are projected to reach US$9.7 trillion by 2029, growing at an average annual rate of 10%*, highlighting the vast potential for growth within Sharia-compliant financial markets.
Across the region, millions of potential users remain cautious about digital assets, not due to a lack of interest, but because they want greater clarity on how returns are generated, what mechanisms underpin yield products, how risk is structured, and which governance standards apply. “Financial freedom must be built on trust and clarity,” said Tarik Erk, MENAT Lead & Senior Executive Officer, Abu Dhabi at Binance, “In this region, inclusive growth in digital finance requires products that align with structured financial principles and transparent mechanisms. When innovation is built responsibly, participation expands.”
Introducing Sharia Earn: Where Islamic Finance Meets Blockchain Technology
This is where Sharia-aligned frameworks offer something meaningful: defined contractual structures, clear underlying mechanisms, and governance oversight. Binance’s Sharia Earn product was developed within such a structured framework. It is where two financial systems meet: Islamic finance and blockchain technology. Certified by Amanie Advisors, the product ensures that all deployed funds are channeled into ventures and assets that are halal (permissible) under Islamic law. The product launched with major digital assets including BNB, ETH, and SOL. Rather than positioning itself as a niche offering, Sharia Earn reflects a broader shift toward formalized, compliance-driven product design in the region.
Bridging technology and values responsibly
This is also where Binance as a crypto infrastructure becomes relevant. Building financial freedom responsibly requires more than access; it requires trusted rails, clear frameworks, and compliant innovation that users can understand. At its core, Sharia Earn sits at the intersection of blockchain technology through decentralization and programmability; and Islamic finance through a value-based framework. According to product details, Sharia Earn is built using underlying technology from existing Binance Earn products (including locked products and staking mechanics), with the structure reviewed by Sharia scholars and implemented through a purpose-fit Wakala agreement.
Ramadan: A Timely Moment for Responsible Financial Innovation
Ramadan is often described as a month of reflection and intentionality, values that naturally translate into how people think about money: purpose, discipline, and responsibility. As part of its Ramadan campaign period, Binance is also spotlighting Sharia Earn. But the bigger story is not the boost, it’s the direction where ethical and compliant product design becomes a catalyst for broader participation.
Financial freedom, in the context of modern digital finance, doesn’t simply mean “more products.” It means more meaningful choices, built with the safeguards, transparency, and structures that diverse communities require. Sharia-compliant innovation is one of the examples of how that can be achieved in the region by bridging technology and values.
*Source: LSEG Islamic Finance Development Indicator 2025 / ICD Islamic Finance Report.
Editor’s note: Ramadan is a high-stakes period for shoppers in the UAE and GCC, where staple goods can swing on global supply dynamics as well as seasonal demand. This editorial overview examines how easing prices for wheat, sugar, coffee, and cocoa—driven by improved production and steady shipments—could influence household budgets this year. While retailers anticipate busier shopping periods, prices may hold more gently than in recent years if supply conditions stay favorable. The following press release outlines current commodity trends and what they could mean for Ramadan shoppers.
Key points
- Wheat prices down 5% YoY; supply forecasts revised higher; exports and harvests improving.
- Sugar down >10% in month, ~35% YoY; India quotas and Brazil export flows support supply.
- Arabica coffee around $2.80/lb, 27% YoY drop; Brazil harvest expectations improving.
- Cocoa around $3,200/ton, down 69% YoY; West Africa weather improving, ICE stocks at multi-month highs.
Why this matters
As Ramadan approaches, easing input costs and rising supplies may translate into lower retail costs for key Ramadan staples. The trends suggest the season could be cheaper than last year, offering relief to households in the UAE and GCC while producers navigate a more predictable supply landscape.
What to watch next
- Monitor wheat export volumes and forecasts (SovEcon, IKAR, India exports, Argentina crop) from press content.
- Watch sugar price movements, Indian export quotas, and weather conditions affecting production.
- Track Arabica coffee price moves and Brazil harvest developments for 2026/27.
- Observe cocoa inventories and ICE price trends as West Africa and South America conditions evolve.
Disclosure: The content below is a press release provided by the company/PR representative. It is published for informational purposes.
Consumers May See Cheaper Ramadan as Commodity Prices Ease with Stronger Global Supply
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates – February 23, 2026
Ramadan marks one of the busiest periods of the year for retailers across the UAE and the wider GCC. However, there is good news for consumers: several staple ingredients for the holy month, such as wheat, sugar, coffee, and cocoa, are entering the season at relatively soft prices as global supply conditions improve.
While consumer demand typically strengthens ahead of Ramadan, global markets are currently responding more to supply developments than seasonal buying patterns. What that means is that this Ramadan has potential to be cheaper than last year.
The price of wheat, a core staple in Arab households, used in dishes such as harees and khubz, has come under mild downward pressure in recent sessions. Wheat prices are down 5% YoY; a modest dip. Futures are trading near $5.6 per bushel, easing from a three-month high earlier in February when a cold wave raised concerns about crop damage in parts of the U.S. Plains. As weather conditions improved, supply expectations stabilised. Russian production forecasts have been revised higher, with SovEcon estimating 85.9 million tons and IKAR projecting close to 91 million tons for 2026. India has also approved 2.5 million tons of wheat exports following strong harvests, while Argentina is reporting a near-record crop of around 28 million tons. Together, these developments are supporting global supply.
Sugar prices are down more than 10% over the past month and nearly 35% YoY, trading at around 13.46 U.S. cents per pound. Brazil continues to play a key role in global pricing, with strong export flows keeping markets well supplied. Improved weather conditions have further reduced production risks. In India, the world’s second-largest exporter, authorities recently increased the export quota by 500,000 tons to support market stability.
Arabica coffee, or gahwa, a central part of Ramadan gatherings, has eased to around $2.80 per pound, its lowest level since July 2025, and prices are now 27% lower YoY. Prices are under pressure as Brazil, the world’s largest producer, anticipates a strong 2026/27 harvest following improved rainfall. Brazil’s Conab forecasts output at 66.2 million bags, with some private estimates even higher. However, supplies from the current 2025/26 season remain relatively tight, which may limit the discount that consumers will ultimately see in shops
The staple that has seen the greatest price fall is cocoa. Cocoa is now around $3,200 per tonne, its lowest level since June 2023. Prices are down a whopping 69% YoY, representing a significant correction from 2025’s supply-driven spike. As the weather improves in West Africa and yields rise in South America, global supply is increasing. Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) inventories have climbed to multi-month highs, signalling ample availability. For UAE consumers, cocoa’s stability is particularly relevant given the popularity of chocolate-based desserts during Ramadan and the continued buzz around the now-viral “Dubai Chocolate”. The market has shifted from last year’s supply shortages to expectations of more balanced conditions, reducing price pressure for now.
Commenting on the broader trend, Sam North, Market Analyst at eToro, said: global markets are entering 2026 with improving production outlooks and stronger supply visibility. While short-term volatility cannot be ruled out, current fundamentals suggest that markets are well positioned to absorb seasonal Ramadan demand. It is worth noting that food producers typically secure raw materials in advance, meaning current futures prices are not immediately reflected in retail costs. Nevertheless, easing input prices support the prospect of a comparatively less expensive Ramadan this year, should softer trends persist.
Media Contact: PR@etoro.com
About eToro
eToro is the trading and investing platform that empowers you to invest, share and learn. We were founded in 2007 with the vision of a world where everyone can trade and invest in a simple and transparent way. Today we have 40 million registered users from 75 countries. We believe there is power in shared knowledge and that we can become more successful by investing together. So we’ve created a collaborative investment community designed to provide you with the tools you need to grow your knowledge and wealth. On eToro, you can hold a range of traditional and innovative assets and choose how you invest: trade directly, invest in a portfolio, or copy other investors. You can visit our media centre here for our latest news.
The project is reportedly being led by Israeli tech entrepreneur Liran Tancman, who is working as an adviser to the recently established peacekeeping organization.
The so-called “Board of Peace,” created by U.S. President Donald Trump and established during the World Economic Forum last month, is exploring launching a U.S.-dollar-pegged stablecoin in Gaza, FT reported today, Feb. 23.
Led by Israeli tech entrepreneur Liran Tancman, the initiative reportedly aims to alleviate cash shortages in the war-torn region.
“This will not be a ‘Gaza Coin’ or a new Palestinian currency, but a means to allow Gazans to transact digitally,” a person familiar with the project told the FT.
The project is in preliminary stages, but sources told the FT that it is expected to be tied to the U.S. dollar. How the asset would be introduced in the region remains unclear.
The initiative involves collaboration with the 14-member National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG) and the Office of the High Representative, led by Nickolay Mladenov, which are both working with the Board of Peace. The Board and NCAG are tasked with deciding the regulatory framework and access to the stablecoin, per the report.
Tancman, serving as an unpaid adviser to the Board of Peace, recently spoke at a meeting of the organization in Washington, stating more broadly that NCAG was working on building “a secure digital backbone, an open platform enabling e-payments, financial services, e-learning, and healthcare with user control over data.”
As Reuters recently reported, Israel’s military has officially accepted death toll reports from Gaza health officials that estimate around 70,000 Palestinians, most of whom were women and children, have been killed in Israeli attacks since October 2023.
This article was generated with the assistance of AI workflows.
BTC dropped sharply late Sunday and failed to recover Monday as broad losses rip through crypto amid tariff-driven macro uncertainty.
Crypto markets pulled back once again today as traders reacted to a fresh wave of global tariff threats from U.S. President Donald Trump, once again stoking uncertainty around global trade.
Total crypto market capitalization slid over 3% over the past 24 hours to roughly $2.29 trillion.
Bitcoin (BTC) fell from around $67,600 to around $64,400 on Sunday evening eastern time. Though BTC managed to bounce back over $66,000 Monday morning, it has since fallen back and is trading around $64,600 at press time.
Meanwhile, Ethereum (ETH), the second largest crypto asset by market cap, followed Bitcoin’s sharp fall. ETH is down over 4% on the day and trading around $1,850.
The remaining top-10 crypto assets are seeing moderate 24-hour losses between 2%-6%. Dogecoin (DOGE) is faring the best among large-caps, down only 1.3%, but weekly losses are on the higher side at 7%.
Next Major Trigger
Analysts at glassnode noted that net realized profit and loss trends indicate ongoing market pressure.
In an X post today, the analysts pointed out that the seven-day average of net realized profit and loss for recent investors went from a loss of $1.24 billion per day on Feb. 6 to a loss of $0.48 billion per day, showing that people buying in the base formation phase are still selling at a loss.
Analysts at Keyrock said in a Monday blog post the next major market trigger could be NVIDIA’s earnings on Feb. 25, noting that equity markets are highly sensitive to AI-driven growth expectations.
“Given the equity market’s sensitivity to AI-driven growth expectations, guidance will likely have an outsized impact on tech, which Bitcoin has been tracking close to, and broader risk sentiment,” they said.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has slid to 5, deep in “extreme fear” territory, signaling that investor sentiment is once again at one of its lowest points in recent weeks.
Big Movers and Liquidations
Looking at the top-100 assets by market cap, POL (ex-MATIC) led gainers, up 3.3%, followed by tokenized gold assets Tether Gold and PAX Gold, both up about 1.4%.
On the downside, tokens of two of the largest decentralized trading protocols, Hyperliquid (HYPE) fell 8.2% and pumpfun (PUMP), led daily losses, both down about 9%. Commentators noted that the price pressure came after a tweet from ZachXBT teasing an upcoming investigation into “one of crypto’s most profitable businesses.”
According to CoinGlass data,nearly 139,000 traders were liquidated over the past 24 hours, with total losses of around $503.1 million. Bitcoin accounted for $231.3 million, Ethereum for $127 million, and other altcoins totaled $33.78 million. Long positions made up $426.5 million of the total, while shorts accounted for $76.5 million.
ETFs and Macro Conditions
Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded $315.86 million in outflows over the past week ending Feb. 20, while spot Ethereum ETFs lost a net $123.37 million, according to SoSoValue data.
On the macro side, the European Commission told the U.S. to stick to last year’s trade deal after the Supreme Court struck down Trump’s emergency tariffs, Reuters reported on Sunday, Feb. 22. Trump hit back with temporary global tariffs, first 10% then up to 15% over the weekend, leaving markets dealing with an unpredictable trade scene.
Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields barely moved at the start of the week. The 10-year yield dipped just under 1 basis point to 4.077%, the 30-year slipped slightly to 4.723%, and the 2-year nudged up to 3.482%, per data from CNBC.
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