Spain has recorded the largest fan token burn of the FIFA World Cup 2026 after more than 1.16 million SPAIN Fan Tokens were permanently removed from circulation following the team’s quarter-final victory.

According to Chiliz, Spain’s 2-1 win over Belgium triggered the destruction of 1,161,234 SPAIN Fan Tokens under its Burn to Glory campaign, reducing the token’s total supply to 27.25 million. The company said the burned tokens were worth about $649,050 and pushed Spain to the top of the tournament’s burn leaderboard with nearly three million tokens removed so far.

Bitcoin is starting the week with renewed caution as traders weigh macro-driven volatility against fresh technical signals on the weekly chart. After slipping back toward the low-$62,000 area, market participants are debating whether recent downside momentum is merely a pause—or the early stages of a broader bear-market base.

At the same time, geopolitical risk has returned to the front pages. Iran has declared the Strait of Hormuz closed until further notice, tightening expectations around oil supply and feeding into risk-asset uncertainty just as the US prepares for key inflation readings and Federal Reserve testimony.

Key takeaways

• Some traders point to a potential early bull-market turn, with one arguing a surge could begin around September or October.
• Bitcoin’s weekly “death cross” signal is again in focus, and traders say the prior occurrence before the September 2022 bottom left a similar late-stage pattern.
• The Strait of Hormuz closure has lifted crude prices and is contributing to higher-rate expectations—typically a headwind for crypto.
• US CPI and PPI prints, followed by Fed chair Kevin Warsh’s testimony, are likely to determine whether risk appetite steadies or fades further.
• CryptoQuant data shows midsize holders (100–1,000 BTC) recorded their strongest distribution since February 19, adding nuance to the “bottoming” narrative.

Traders debate timing: early rebound calls vs. bearish structure

One of the more attention-grabbing takes came from trader Ryker, who used an X post on Monday to challenge the prevailing “four-year cycle” interpretation of Bitcoin’s bull and bear phases. Ryker’s argument hinges on the idea that market makers may front-run the crowd’s expectations for a later bear-market bottom—potentially engineering an earlier rebound than most participants anticipate.

“I predict that Bitcoin will start surging around September or October of this year, and the crowd will miss the buy opportunity. You shouldn’t trust this chart.”

Ryker’s broader point is that positioning often moves ahead of consensus. In their framing, if the market believes the next bull cycle will begin in 2027, then contrarian timing could create a squeeze-like move in the months before that narrative fully consolidates.

Other indicators are being cited as well. Cointelegraph previously noted that certain reversal signals—such as those connected to Bollinger Bands—have “flashed” for the first time since the end of the last bear market in late 2022. Still, Cointelegraph also reported that historical context suggests the current bear market may be too early for a clean reversal before year-end, with progress toward a potential bottom estimated at around 70%.

Range-bound action and the “death cross” on the weekly chart

In the near term, price action has been choppy. After the weekly close, Bitcoin saw sell-side pressure and fell to local lows near $62,500, according to TradingView. Traders cited the $64,000 area as short-term resistance, noting multiple failed attempts to break higher.

On X, trader Daan Crypto Trades characterized market behavior as unusually mixed between crypto and equities, saying Bitcoin has been ranging roughly between the low-$60,000s and mid-$60,000s. Another analyst, Lennaert Snyder, highlighted order-book and funding-rate conditions to argue that additional downward testing could be “healthy,” pointing to selling pressure reflected in spot and perpetuals.

For longer-time-horizon traders, the weekly “death cross” is back in the spotlight. Trader Jelle pointed to the death cross involving the 50-week and 100-week simple moving averages (SMAs) as a potentially meaningful framework, noting that the last death cross occurred in September 2022, only months before that cycle’s bear-market bottom.

Jelle’s message to followers was that the signal has historically appeared late enough in the drawdown for accumulation patterns to start reasserting themselves, even if it doesn’t guarantee an immediate floor.

Hormuz closure lifts oil and pressures rate-sensitive assets

While traders continue to debate the chart, macro catalysts are moving in real time. Iran’s declaration that the Strait of Hormuz is closed until further notice marks a renewed escalation in the US-Iran conflict dynamic, according to coverage summarized on social media. The market reaction has been consistent with oil-supply risk: US WTI crude reportedly returned to around $75 per barrel on Monday, up nearly 12% versus July lows.

Crypto educators and analysts have tied the story to broader financial conditions. Coin Bureau CEO Nic Puckrin flagged a spike in US two-year Treasury yields, noting that it pushed above 2.35%—the highest level in about 16 months. In his view, the implication is that oil-driven inflation expectations can translate into “higher for longer” interest-rate assumptions, which typically weighs on risk assets including crypto.

Still, not everyone is treating the Middle East headline cycle as the sole driver of Bitcoin’s recent volatility. Trader Michaël van de Poppe argued that the correction may be influenced more directly by Japanese bond dynamics and the yen’s weakness versus the US dollar, pointing to potential effects from rising yields in Japan. In his scenario, a breakdown in yields over the next 1–2 weeks could help support a positive breakout in Bitcoin.

US CPI/PPI and Fed testimony set the agenda for rates

With Iran-related risk in the background, the next major inflection points are scheduled on the US macro calendar. June CPI and PPI are due in the coming days and represent the final inflation releases ahead of the Federal Reserve’s end-of-month decision on interest-rate changes.

Cointelegraph previously highlighted that Iran’s impact is already embedded in US inflation reporting for several months, which raises the stakes for whether CPI or PPI comes in hotter or cooler than expected—something that could quickly swing risk-asset sentiment.

Almost immediately after the CPI release, Kevin Warsh is set to present a semiannual monetary policy report to the House Financial Services Committee. Warsh has been described in prior coverage as balancing rising inflation concerns with political pressure to cut rates; at his first interest-rate meeting, he reportedly remained on the hawkish side rather than signaling an imminent relaxation.

According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, markets currently price policy staying unchanged until September, when a majority consensus expects a 0.25% increase. Separately, The Kobeissi Letter summarized the week as “highly eventful,” reinforcing the idea that multiple moving parts—CPI, PPI, and Fed commentary—could amplify swings rather than smooth them out.

Midsize holder distribution adds friction to “bottom” narratives

Beyond price charts and macro headlines, on-chain behavior is offering a more mixed picture. CryptoQuant reported new insights on Bitcoin holders in the 100–1,000 BTC range, tracking distribution activity that may indicate reduced conviction from a specific investor cohort.

In the CryptoQuant analysis published Monday, contributor Amr Taha wrote that wallets holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC recorded net distribution of roughly 67,000 BTC on July 13. That was described as the cohort’s strongest selling activity since February 19, when distribution reached approximately 47,000 BTC.

Importantly, Taha also contextualized the pattern by noting that this cohort’s behavior over the past three months has been uneven—late April reportedly showed accumulation, while the February period ended with distribution followed by a rebound. Taha cautioned that the signal does not confirm a market bottom, but it does place Bitcoin near another historically significant shift in midsize investor behavior.

CryptoQuant data also suggested that inflows to Binance and Coinbase Prime cooled in mid-July, aligning with the broader theme that not all demand channels are accelerating at the same pace.

For traders and investors, the next few sessions may be less about arguing which indicator is “right” and more about watching how Bitcoin responds to scheduled inflation data and Fed messaging—especially if midsize distribution continues while rate expectations remain volatile. The tension to monitor is whether technical reversal narratives gain traction as macro pressure either eases or intensifies.

Latest developments: In an interview with Jennifer Sanasie on CoinDesk’s Public Keys Ginns said the convergence between traditional finance and crypto continues to gain momentum despite a prolonged market slump

• Franklin Crypto aims to build a leading fundamental crypto investment platform following Franklin Templeton’s acquisition of 250 Digital, the firm that emerged from CoinFund’s liquid investment business, Ginns said.
• While venture capital remains a natural fit for institutional allocators, Ginns said current market conditions also make liquid crypto investments increasingly attractive.
• “There’s a big disconnect between where prices are and real fundamentals,” Ginns said, pointing to growing institutional engagement across the sector.

What this means: Ginns identified several developments that could bring more institutional capital into crypto markets.

• He pointed to Robinhood’s blockchain initiative as an example of traditional financial distribution moving onto crypto rails, creating new opportunities for developers and users.
• Ginns also cited growing interest in tokenized money market funds, which could allow investors to earn yield while maintaining on-chain portability.
• Tokenized equities, stablecoin adoption and broader financial infrastructure are all contributing to the convergence of traditional finance and blockchain technology, he said.

Hyundai Motor’s US and Mexican units completed a pilot cross-border treasury transfer using Tether’s USDT stablecoin, settling a $20,000 payment in about seven minutes on the Avalanche blockchain.

According to Tether, Hyundai Motor America converted the funds into USDT, transferred the stablecoin to Hyundai Motor Mexico and converted it back into US dollars. The transfer and verification process took about seven minutes, compared with three to four hours or more for a traditional cross-border bank transfer.

Tether said the pilot used Axiym’s settlement infrastructure, while Hyundai Card designed the remittance structure and oversaw the regulatory, compliance, accounting and operational requirements needed to support the proof of concept.

The pilot was designed to evaluate whether stablecoin-based settlement could be integrated into existing corporate treasury operations without changing governance, compliance or accounting processes. The next phase will expand testing to additional payment corridors and local currency settlements as the companies evaluate broader enterprise treasury workflows.

Related: Japan’s SBI to launch yen stablecoin lending with 3% yield

Corporate treasury emerges as key stablecoin use case

Corporate treasury has become an increasingly important focus for stablecoin companies, with firms rolling out products designed to support cross-border payments, liquidity management and intercompany settlement.

In April, treasury management software provider Kyriba partnered with Circle to integrate the USDC stablecoin into its enterprise treasury platform. The collaboration allows treasury teams to manage stablecoin balances alongside cash positions, settle eligible cross-border and intercompany payments in near-real time, and access liquidity outside traditional banking hours using existing treasury workflows and approval controls.

A Bitso Business report published this month found stablecoin transaction volumes processed on its platform increased 81% year over year in the first half of 2026, driven by demand for real-time settlement, treasury management and cross-border liquidity solutions. More than 60% of new business clients onboarded during the period were financial institutions, including banks and licensed payment providers.

Business surveys also point to growing enterprise adoption. A June Paybis report found that 22.5% of surveyed businesses already use stablecoins for international payments or plan to within the next 12 months. Citing McKinsey research, the report said business-to-business transactions accounted for roughly 60% of the estimated $390 billion in global stablecoin payment volume in 2025.

The enterprise push comes as the stablecoin market continues to grow. Total stablecoin market capitalization has climbed to about $312.3 billion, up roughly 21.5% from $257.1 billion a year earlier, according to DefiLlama, with Tether’s USDT remaining the largest stablecoin by market value.

Source: Defillama

Magazine: Robinhood L2 sparks ETH optimism, Saylor ‘muddies waters.’ Hodler’s Digest, July 5-12, 2026

Bitcoin has entered a high-risk week as fresh inflation data and renewed Federal Reserve rate concerns have intensified pressure on crypto markets.

According to Reuters, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller warned that the U.S. central bank could consider raising interest rates if inflation continues to remain above its 2% target, placing investors on alert before this week’s key economic releases.

His comments come as traders prepare for the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) report due on July 14, followed by the Producer Price Index (PPI) data on July 15.

Bitcoin has already reacted to rising macro uncertainty. The cryptocurrency slipped below $62,000 after climbing to around $64,500 earlier, with escalating tensions between the United States and Iran adding another layer of risk to global financial markets.

Higher geopolitical uncertainty has combined with growing expectations of tighter monetary policy to weaken demand for risk assets.

Inflation data could shape Fed expectations

Wall Street economists expect the June CPI report to show monthly inflation easing to 0.2% from 0.5% in May. Annual inflation is projected to slow to 3.8% from 4.2%, offering investors another measure of whether price pressures are cooling.

The inflation figures are likely to influence expectations for future Federal Reserve policy. If consumer prices rise faster than forecast, markets could strengthen their bets that policymakers may keep interest rates higher for longer or even consider another increase.

Attention will then turn to the June PPI report, which measures inflation at the wholesale level. Together, the two reports are expected to provide a clearer picture of inflation trends across the U.S. economy and could influence trading across equities, bonds and digital assets.

Following Waller’s remarks, the CME FedWatch Tool showed that the probability of a September Federal Reserve rate hike climbed to 51.3%. Higher borrowing costs typically reduce appetite for speculative investments, making cryptocurrencies particularly sensitive to changes in monetary policy expectations.

Recent Federal Reserve communications have already pointed to persistent inflation risks. Minutes from the central bank’s latest policy meeting noted that several officials remain concerned about inflationary pressures, including those linked to rising artificial intelligence investment and stronger-than-expected economic activity, keeping markets cautious ahead of this week’s data releases.

Crypto legislation adds another market catalyst

While inflation remains the primary focus, investors are also monitoring developments in Washington as lawmakers prepare for another important week for the CLARITY Act, one of the most closely watched crypto market structure bills.

U.S. President Donald Trump recently urged the Senate to pass the legislation in honor of Senator Lindsey Graham, who died on July 11. The bill is expected to receive renewed attention this week as lawmakers continue discussions over its final form.

The legislation seeks to establish a clearer regulatory framework for digital assets in the United States. Market participants have been watching the proposal closely because it could determine how cryptocurrencies are regulated by federal agencies and influence future institutional participation in the sector.

With inflation reports, Federal Reserve policy expectations, geopolitical tensions, and crypto legislation all converging within days, investors are preparing for another volatile trading week.

Softer-than-expected inflation could ease pressure on risk assets, while stronger readings may reinforce expectations for tighter monetary policy and keep cryptocurrencies under pressure.

A long-dormant Bitcoin wallet that last moved funds when BTC traded around the mid-$6,000s has re-entered the market, transferring a large amount of coins that may be nearing an eventual sale. Arkham blockchain data shows the wallet “356my” moved 2,931 BTC—worth roughly $188 million at current prices—into a new wallet address on Sunday.

The transaction stands out because it represents the whale’s first on-chain activity in seven years, and analysts link such moves to potential liquidation flows. The transfer also arrives as exchange-related inflows are being increasingly dominated by large holders rather than smaller investors.

Key takeaways

• A wallet last active near $6,500 BTC has transferred 2,931 BTC (about $188 million) for the first time in seven years, according to Arkham.
• Blockchain analytics from Onchain Lens suggests the holdings could be up nearly 10-fold, based on the wallet’s likely cost basis over the holding period.
• CryptoQuant data indicates exchange whale activity remains heavily concentrated, with whale-led deposits accounting for about 99% of BTC exchange inflows year-to-date.
• Large whale transfers into exchanges are often interpreted as sell-side preparation, potentially adding pressure to BTC while spot ETF flows remain mixed.
• Farside Investors data shows spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows leading into Friday, but June delivered $4.51 billion in net outflows—the worst month on record.

Seven-year-old Bitcoin wallet moves $188 million

Arkham’s explorer data attributes the move to a single whale wallet labeled “356my,” which sent 2,931 BTC to wallet address “bc1qn” on Sunday. The size is significant: at Bitcoin’s current trading level of around $64,000 per coin, the transfer values near $188 million.

What makes the transfer especially noteworthy is the wallet’s dormancy. The earlier activity dates back roughly seven years, when Bitcoin’s market price was around $6,500. While a dormant balance doesn’t guarantee future selling, the timing and magnitude have prompted fresh scrutiny from on-chain analysts.

Onchain Lens has framed the move as a near 10-fold gain scenario—an outcome consistent with buying or accumulating during the years when BTC traded far below today’s level. The implication for traders is straightforward: when long-held coins begin moving, it can signal a shift from accumulation to distribution, particularly if funds are routed toward exchange infrastructure.

Why exchange-linked whale inflows matter

Recent market flows suggest that whales are driving a disproportionate share of BTC entering exchange ecosystems. CryptoQuant’s exchange whale ratio chart—tracking the share of deposits tied to large transfers—stands at 0.99 at press time for the year-to-date window.

CryptoQuant interprets this high concentration as “historically a bearish signal.” The underlying logic is that whale deposits are more likely to be associated with substantial sell orders rather than routine retail behavior. In practice, when large holders move coins to exchanges, it often represents preparation for liquidity events—sometimes immediate, sometimes gradual.

Coinglass defines “whale transfers” as movements of at least $10 million, which helps contextualize why these transactions can carry more weight than smaller wallet activity. If the current pattern persists, BTC could face intermittent sell pressure even if broader demand remains steady.

ETF flows add another layer of selling pressure risk

The whale transfer also lands amid ongoing questions about spot Bitcoin ETF positioning. Farside Investors data shows US-traded spot Bitcoin ETFs registered $197 million in net weekly inflows leading up to Friday. However, the broader trend has not been supportive: Farside also reports that ETFs recorded $4.51 billion in net outflows in June, marking the worst month on record.

That mix—weekly inflows alongside a severely negative monthly performance—can translate into a more fragile price backdrop. Even when ETFs provide short bursts of buying, persistent outflows can reduce the market’s ability to absorb large sell-side catalysts.

As a result, the combination of (1) whale-led exchange inflows and (2) the lingering ETF outflow overhang may be one reason analysts keep pointing to “additional pressure” risk when large on-chain balances start to move.

What to watch next after the transfer

While the wallet-to-wallet transfer itself does not confirm a sale, the market’s next clues will likely come from whether the coins move again—especially if they transition from private wallets to major exchange addresses. Traders and investors will also want to monitor whether whale transfers continue at similar frequency and magnitude, and whether ETF flow momentum improves after June’s outflows.

For now, the key uncertainty is timing: long-dormant coins can sit for weeks or months after the first move, but repeated movements toward exchange liquidity typically strengthen the case for distribution. Readers should watch the on-chain follow-through alongside ETF flow data to gauge whether this whale activity turns into sustained selling pressure or fades into a one-off reshuffling.