While past patterns are never a guarantee of future performance, volatility metrics are widely known to be mean-reverting. This cyclical nature suggests that periods of below-average volatility are often followed by higher turbulence, while above-average volatility paves the way for market stability.

Currently, the index is trading below both its 30-day and 200-day simple moving averages. In essence, volatility is relatively “cheap” and sitting at a historically reliable support zone, suggesting the measure could be set to rise, which means another round of turbulence.

For now, bitcoin continues to trade just above $64,000, maintaining the range-bound price action that has persisted since last Wednesday. While some analysts have noted two consecutive weeks of spot ETF inflows, the capital movement is tiny compared with the billions yanked from the market during the preceding eight-week outflow streak.

Global volatility gauges in traditional markets are currently offering mixed signals. South Korea’s KOSPI VIX is currently above 70%, its highest level since the 1990s. Meanwhile, Wall Street’s VIX jumped over 12% to reach 18% on Friday, where it continues to hover. However, these levels have been in the play for months, which means that stocks are anything but panicked.

Additionally, the MOVE index, the 30-day volatility gauge for U.S. Treasury notes that underpins global finance, remains steady around 70%, as it has since April, offering a constructive cue for risk assets. Stay alert!

Bitcoin is starting the final full week of July holding onto a key technical level, even as geopolitical and macro pressures continue to loom over risk assets. Traders and analysts say BTC’s near-term floor is being defended, but they are also watching for a clearer break out of a choppy range.

At the same time, on-chain and derivatives-focused research points to a market that is still not fully supported by spot demand—despite some exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows—while sentiment gauges suggest fear is easing from earlier lows.

Key takeaways

• Bitcoin is maintaining support around the 200-week moving average after a strong weekly close, with some traders targeting a potential move toward the $65,000–$67,000 zone.
• Options and futures activity may not be enough to sustain a rally if spot buying remains weak, according to CryptoQuant research.
• Geopolitical escalation tied to the US-Iran situation is pushing oil prices higher, adding volatility to broader markets ahead of major corporate earnings.
• The Puell Multiple—used to track miner earnings versus its historical baseline—has been improving, but analysts warn against calling a “generational low” too early.
• Crypto Fear & Greed Index readings are near a two-month high, signaling that panic is fading even as caution remains.

BTC traders test the range as weekly support holds

Even with a positive weekly close, the start of the week brought renewed sell-side pressure. TradingView data cited by Cointelegraph indicates BTC saw lower prices after the weekly close, with local lows reaching $63,700 during Monday’s session.

Some traders still see room for additional relief rallies as long as range lows continue to hold. One analyst posting on X, Jelle, said he wouldn’t be surprised to see BTC “towards 65-67k” later this week, framing the current setup as supportive on shorter time frames.

Another market participant, Daan Crypto Trades, pointed to a structural milestone: BTC has reportedly closed above the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) for three consecutive weeks. The 200-week SMA was cited at $63,322. However, Daan also warned that the next meaningful confirmation would be a strong push that helps BTC retrace the latest downside leg and move back above the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA), referenced at $68,521.

“Until then, we’re just caught in this $60K choppy price range.”

That “chop” characterization is consistent with how multiple traders have been framing the market—bullish divergences are being discussed, but the move still needs follow-through to escape the current trading band.

There is also a cautionary overlay from seasonality. Rekt Capital summarized a broader cycle view on X, arguing that Bitcoin is more than halfway through its second year in the current four-year cycle and that 2026 has behaved more like a bear-market year, setting expectations that a more favorable “bottoming out” period may come later.

Geopolitics raises the macro temperature for risk markets

Beyond technicals, this week’s macro backdrop is being driven by renewed tensions in the US-Iran relationship. Iran-related escalation has fed into market concerns, and US officials have discussed sanctions legislation in a way that has heightened attention from investors.

Energy markets responded quickly. Oil futures were reported higher at the weekly open, with WTI crude trading above $80 per barrel at five-week highs, and Brent topping $90. Cointelegraph also noted that the return of conflict coincided with the swift closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a major shipping route, after it had briefly been cleared earlier as part of a now-failed US-Iran peace effort.

For crypto, the implication is less about oil directly and more about how quickly global risk appetite can change when geopolitical tail risks rise. The week’s corporate earnings calendar could amplify that effect, with Tesla, Alphabet, and Intel slated to report in the coming days.

On interest rates, markets appear relatively steady. CME Group’s FedWatch Tool was referenced as showing consensus for a 0.25% rate hike in September.

Spot demand weakens again even as ETF flows look better

One of the clearest frictions in the current Bitcoin recovery narrative is still the spot market. CryptoQuant research highlighted that early-July strength in spot demand has faded.

According to CryptoQuant’s Monday update, a modest increase in supply early in July had already dissipated. Contributor ScenarioX wrote that Bitcoin’s 30-day Spot Demand, which had recovered sharply to around -80K BTC in early July, later deteriorated to nearly -170K BTC.

This shift matters because a persistent gap between derivatives-driven activity and true spot accumulation can leave rallies vulnerable. CryptoQuant pointed to a market that may continue to grind higher temporarily as short-term selling pressure eases—but warned that the underlying demand structure still looks fragile.

“However, derivatives demand remains insufficient to support a sustainable uptrend on its own. This leaves the market in a structurally fragile state, where renewed spot selling could trigger a sharp downside move.”

CryptoQuant also suggested that price could rise “for a while” before derivatives demand gets exhausted. ScenarioX’s caution was that an upside move without meaningful spot support is likely to end in a larger liquidation event.

Still, ETF flows provide a partial counterweight to the spot weakness. Cointelegraph previously reported that spot demand stayed negative while the rolling 30-day measure improved as BTC approached $64,000. At the same time, futures activity appeared stronger. Farside Investors data was cited as showing net inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs on four of five days last week.

Puell Multiple rebounds—but “generational low” calls remain premature

Another indicator being watched for signs of miner stress easing is the Puell Multiple. CryptoQuant says the metric continues to head higher after early-June lows, which were tied to depressed miner income relative to its 365-day moving average.

The Puell Multiple is designed to capture whether daily miner revenue, denominated in USD, is unusually low compared to historical norms. CryptoQuant’s TheChessOnChain explained that a low reading suggests miner income is far below normal. June’s reading of 0.87 was cited as the lowest since September 2024.

Importantly, CryptoQuant emphasized that even if Puell lows have helped frame prior market bottoms, the lows may not line up neatly with Bitcoin’s price turning points. Over time, Puell has printed higher lows each cycle, which can support the idea that miner income is not being pushed as deep as it used to be.

However, CryptoQuant argued against assuming the current improvement automatically marks a “generational low.” TheChessOnChain noted that halving-related effects don’t mechanically force the Puell ratio to reach new lows, since the metric scales both sides of the ratio, effectively canceling out the supply cut impact. Instead, the argument is that price declines have historically been less severe in later cycles, reducing how badly miner earnings get squeezed.

The more nuanced warning is that waiting for the classic, deeper Puell territory may be a flawed strategy if those conditions no longer print in the same way. The ChessOnChain said that some of the lows in prior periods were “Puell lows, not price bottoms,” and that the current backdrop reads more like easing miner pressure than the start of a long-term capitulation floor.

“Today reads as easing miner pressure, not a generational low. It turns decisive only if it holds beneath recent lows for weeks.”

Fear fades as sentiment nears a two-month high

While traders weigh demand and macro risks, sentiment indicators suggest the psychological mood is improving. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index from Alternative.me showed a reading of 29/100 on Monday, remaining in the “fear” range but at its highest level since the beginning of June. The article noted that crypto had largely been stuck in “extreme fear” for much of the intervening period.

Research firm Santiment tied the shift to ETF demand returning after a prolonged outflow stretch across May and June, according to its commentary on X. Santiment also pointed to improving risk appetite after favorable US inflation data and suggested “crypto policy optimism” provided another reason for sidelined buyers to re-enter.

Going into the rest of the week, traders are likely to watch whether BTC can reclaim the next key weekly trend levels while spot demand continues to lag—or stabilizes again. The durability of any upside move may ultimately depend on whether ETF-related inflows translate into sustained spot accumulation, as CryptoQuant’s warnings about a structurally fragile market remain central to the current setup.

The Bank of Korea’s central bank digital currency (CBDC) plans are moving forward with nine participating banks.

The second phase of BOK’s CBDC program is scheduled for September with real-transaction testing, Yonhap News Agency reported on Monday.

“The Bank of Korea will provide the infrastructure for the institutional CBDC, and each bank will conduct its own business using deposit tokens,” a BOK official told YNA. “From the second phase, we will lay the groundwork for commercialization.”

The BOK’s second phase will expand to include a total of nine participating banks, including Gyeongnam Bank and iM Bank. The country’s top three banks, KB Kookmin, Shinhan, Hana, and Woori Financial Group, are also participating in the CBDC project.

“The goal is to create an environment where the won can be traded freely regardless of time or place,” Yonhap quoted the government as saying.

CBDCs are a digital form of blockchain-based fiat currency that are managed by the issuing central bank and considered legal tender. Only a handful of countries have officially introduced a CBDC. Bahamas unveiled one in October 2020, Nigeria in 2021, and Jamaica in 2022, according to the Atlantic Council’s CBDC tracker.

The crypto market is drifting lower, with bitcoin BTC$64,179.43 losing 1% since midnight UTC while ether (ETH) is holding up marginally better, shedding 0.65% even as some other risk assets, like U.S. equity index futures, advance.

Futures on the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 indexes posted gains of 0.35% and 0.20%, respectively, expanding the divergence between crypto and stocks that has defined much of this year.

Gold is little changed, holding above $4,000, and the Dollar Index (DXY) also barely moved, leaving crypto without a clean macro narrative to lean on.

CoinMarketCap’s Fear and Greed index sits at 34, deep in “fear” territory, while the average relative strength index (RSI) across crypto pairs has slipped to 44.07, nudging back toward the oversold conditions that set up July’s relief rally.

Derivatives positioning

• Churn over conviction: Crypto futures are characterized by churning rather than new position establishment. While trading volume surged 81% to $127 billion in the past 24 hours, open interest (OI) remained flat at approximately $111 billion.
• Leverage demand stalls: Bitcoin BTC$64,179.43 futures OI growth stalled near 750K BTC, failing to gain traction despite a recent swing that took the price above $64,000. This stagnation indicates that demand for leverage remains low and is a clear sign investors are not comfortable increasing their risk exposure. A similar pattern of caution is evident in ether (ETH) and XRP futures.
• Solana capital outflow: Solana (SOL) is seeing a distinct trend of contraction, with futures OI declining to 62 million tokens, the least since early May. This represents a significant drop from the June 24 peak of over 76 million, signaling substantial position unwinding and capital outflows from the SOL market.
• Bitcoin cash outlier: BCH$211.58 stands out as today’s exception. OI in BCH futures has surged by 20% to 1.73 million tokens, matching the record high set on June 21. This build-up increases the likelihood of volatile price action ahead, particularly as the token has slipped 3% to $213 over the past 24 hours.
• Bearish market delta: Broadly speaking, bears appear to be driving the price action across most top-tier tokens. This is reflected in negative 24-hour cumulative volume delta (CVD) readings for most major coins, including bitcoin and ether. Notably, the privacy-focused ZEC has posted the most negative CVD in the market.
• Volatility fear gauge alert: Traders should stay alert for potential market turbulence. Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility index (BVIV) is nearing the 36% mark. This level has served as a floor in recent years; previous instances of the index hitting this threshold have often preceded major volatility booms and sharp bitcoin price slides.
• Options sentiment divergence: On the Deribit options exchange, persistent downside caution is keeping BTC and ETH puts priced higher than calls. However, 24-hour volume figures reveal a tactical bias toward the upside: the $70,000 Bitcoin call has emerged as the most-traded contract, while the $2,450 call is leading the rankings for ether.

Token talk

• Zcash (ZEC) reversed course on Monday after its recent run, falling 3.68% to $527. The pullback follows a period of outperformance and may reflect profit-taking.
• AI tokens are among the broader losers, with FET dropping 2.94% and TAO shedding 2.58%, giving back some of the gains posted last week as the sector struggles to sustain momentum.
• PUMP$0.001919 is the standout mover of the past 24 hours, surging 20% following a wave of noise on social media, led by crypto influencer Ansem who posted bullish analysis alluding to the company making $30 million to $40 million per month in a bear market.
• Jupiter (JUP) also advanced, rising 1.02% to $0.197 alongside a pickup in trading volume, continuing the token’s gradual rehabilitation after weeks of heavy losses.
• Lighter (LIT) slipped a further 1.83%, extending a pullback from its record highs as profit-taking continues to weigh on a token that surged more than 200% between May and early July.
• CoinMarketCap’s Altcoin Season indicator is at 55/100, the highest reading in months, though the Fear and Greed score of 34 suggests the market remains cautious despite pockets of altcoin strength.

The Nasdaq 100 (US Tech 100 Mini on FXOpen) remains caught between two opposing forces: cooling inflation on one side, and persistent geopolitical instability on the other. On 14 July, June’s CPI print came in softer than expected, easing near-term Fed tightening bets and triggering a broad rebound across tech stocks, particularly semiconductors, which had been under heavy pressure.

That relief, however, has been repeatedly tested by renewed US-Iran hostilities, which pushed oil prices higher and lifted US Treasury yields, weighing on rate-sensitive growth names throughout the week. Every attempt at recovery has coincided with a brief easing of tensions, only for fresh escalations to reintroduce volatility days later.

Beneath the surface, semiconductors remain the index’s clearest fault line: even as broader sentiment improves, doubts over the sustainability of AI-driven valuations continue to trigger selective selling in the sector. Meanwhile, SpaceX’s addition to the index on 8 July has added a steady stream of passive buying, while the start of earnings season has kept investors’ attention split between fundamentals and geopolitics.

Technical Analysis of the Nasdaq 100

As the chart shows, after testing the 30,000 zone on three separate occasions, the Nasdaq 100 (US Tech 100 Mini on FXOpen) has struggled to build fresh momentum, entering a consolidation phase with a bearish tilt. This is clearly visible in the descending trendline that has been respected for roughly a month, alongside the index’s inability to print higher highs.

Bullish Scenario

As with other risk assets, geopolitics remains the primary driver of the index’s true direction. Should tensions stay contained rather than escalate further, the Nasdaq has room to extend its recovery. Technically, price finds itself at a decisive juncture: after bouncing from the 28,200-28,300 zone, which had already acted as a floor in early June, the index now faces its first real test at the 28,800-29,000 area. This zone, a former support level now turned resistance, is the key level to watch. A confirmed breakout above it could signal renewed strength and reopen the path back into the broader 29,000-30,000 consolidation range.

Bearish Scenario

With geopolitical risk still running high, sentiment toward risk assets remains fragile. Technically, the Nasdaq 100 (US Tech 100 Mini on FXOpen) appears to have broken down from the two-month consolidation range, losing the 29,000 support in the process. The formation of the descending trendline reflects the index’s failure to generate higher highs, a clear sign of underlying weakness. Adding to this picture, the 100- and 200-period EMAs on the 4H chart are now crossing—the same signal that preceded April’s strong bullish reversal, this time playing out in the opposite direction.

The 29,000 resistance now holds the key to the next move. Can the Nasdaq 100 (US Tech 100 Mini on FXOpen) reclaim its footing, or is this only the beginning of the correction traders have been waiting for?

Trade global index CFDs with zero commission and tight spreads (additional fees may apply). Open your FXOpen account now or learn more about trading index CFDs with FXOpen.

This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.