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U.S. inflation data take center stage: Crypto Week Ahead

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Kraken's surprise Fed win may harken onslaught of crypto firms with narrow Fed access

Inflation returns to the center of attention this week, with a fresh inflow of data likely to shape expectations for U.S. interest rates and risk assets like bitcoin .

Thursday’s U.S. core PCE reading for February and Friday’s March CPI release will test the view that the Federal Reserve can afford to wait before cutting rates. Earlier this year, rate cuts looked almost certain. That has shifted. On Polymarket, odds of no rate cuts in 2026 climbed from about 2.9% in mid-January to 35.9%.

André Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise Europe, said on social media that bitcoin has been “pricing in a (U.S.) recession already” and has acted as a “canary in the coal mine,” falling below signals from financial conditions and forward-looking indicators.

Recent data complicates that view. The ISM Manufacturing Index surprised to the upside in March, suggesting the U.S. economy may be more resilient to higher oil prices than in past cycles.

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Following the release, market-based recession odds for this year dropped from around 37% to 28%.

As bitcoin has priced in a storm, Dragosch noted that the risk-reward ratio for bitcoin “is significantly skewed to the upside.” Still, an unexpected escalation in the war in the Middle East could bring about the priced-in storm.

What to Watch

(All times ET)

  • Crypto
    • April 6, 12 p.m.: DeFi Dev Corp. (DFDV) to host a March 2026 recap and Ask Me Anything (AMA) session on X Spaces.
    • April 8: Stellar’s Yardstick protocol stable release to become available.
    • April 9: Aerodrome’s Flight School to conclude and merge with the Public Goods Fund to form the Momentum Fund.
    • April 9: Binance to migrate all DAI functionality to USDS.
  • Macro
    • April 6, 09:00 a.m.: U.S. ISM Services PMI for March est. 55 (Prev. 56.1)
    • April 7, 07:15 a.m.: U.S. ADP Employment Change Weekly (est. 10K)
    • April 7, 7:30 a.m.: U.S. Durable Goods Orders MoM for February est 04% (Prev. 0%)
    • April 7, 11:35 a.m.: Chicago Fed President and CEO Austan Goolsbee to participate in a conversation on economic and monetary policy.
    • April 8, 4:00 a.m.: Euro Area PPI YoY for February est. -1.9% (Prev. -2.1%); MoM est. 0.5% (Prev. 0.7%)
    • April 8, 1:00 p.m.: FOMC minutes from the March 17–18 meeting release.
    • April 9, 7:30 a.m.: U.S. Core PCE Price Index MoM for February est. 0.4% (Prev. 0.4%);
    • April 9, 7:30 a.m.: U.S. Personal Income MoM for February est. 0.3% (Prev. 0.4%); Personal Spending MoM est. 0.5% (Prev. 0.4%)
    • April 9, 7:30 a.m.: U.S. Q4 GDP Growth Rate QoQ (final) est. 0.7% (Prev. 4.4%)
    • April 9, 7:30 a.m.: U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for week ending April 4 est. 200K (Prev. 202K)
    • April 9, 8:30 p.m.: China CPI YoY for March est. 1.2% (Prev. 1.3%) ;MoM (Prev. 1%)
    • April 9, 8:30 p.m.: China PPi YoY for March est. 0.4% (Prev. -0.9%)
    • April 10, 7:30 a.m.: Canada Unemployment Rate for March (Prev. 6.7%)
    • April 10, 7:30 a.m.: U.S. CPI MoM for March est. 0.9% (Prev. 0.3%); Core CPI MoM est. 0.3% (Prev. 0.2%)
    • April 10, 7:30 a.m.: U.S. CPI YoY for March est. 3.4% (Prev. 2.4%); Core CPI YoY est. 2.7% (Prev. 2.5%)
    • April 10, 10:00 a.m.: U.S. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Preliminary April) est. 52.5 (Prev. 53.3)
  • Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)

Token Events

  • Governance votes & calls
    • April 7: Kamino and xStocks to host an X Spaces session on tokenization.
    • Aave DAO is voting to adjust oracle configurations, reduce liquidation thresholds, and modify interest-rate models across its V2 markets to support their continued deprecation. Voting ends April 6.
    • Decentraland DAO is voting to require the DAO Council and Regenesis Labs to formally publish a 2030 definition of success and contingency plan. The proposal currently has support from voters. Voting ends April 6.
    • Balancer DAO is voting across two linked proposals to restructure operations with a reduced team and budget, and to revamp tokenomics by halting BAL emissions, discontinuing veBAL, routing all fees to the treasury, and offering a token buyback. Voting ends April 7.
    • CoW DAO is voting 85 to fix its solver rewards budget at 50% of protocol revenue, splitting it between performance and new consistency rewards. The proposal has overwhelming support and ends April 7.
    • ShapeShift DAO is voting to cut DFC compensation, saving ~$24k/year in FOX. It clarifies roles and mandates annual renewals. Voting ends April 8.
    • Arbitrum DAO is voting across two proposals to amend its Audit Program with a flexible alignment framework and an AI-security scan pilot, and to transfer 6,000 ETH and idle stablecoins to the Treasury Management Portfolio for yield generation. Voting ends April 9.
  • Unlocks
    • April 6: Hyperliquid (HYPE) to unlock 0.14% of its circulating supply worth $11.94 million.
    • April 8: Stable (STABLE) to unlock 4.14% of its circulating value worth $23.97 million.
    • April 9: Aptos to unlock 0.68% of its circulating supply worth $9.56 million.
  • Token Launches
    • April 9: OneFootball (OFC) token generation event to occur.

Conferences

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Crypto World

On-Chain Perp DEX Volumes Dip for Fifth Straight Month After Oct Peak

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Crypto Breaking News

The surge in onchain perpetual futures trading appears to be cooling after a meteoric rise in 2025. New DefiLlama data show a five-month downturn in perp volumes on decentralized exchanges (DEXs), with March 2026 totals dipping to $699 billion from October’s peak of $1.36 trillion. Daily activity also slowed, as April 4, 2026, posted $8.4 billion in perp DEX volume—the first sub-$10 billion day since September 2025 and the lowest reading since July 2025. The trend suggests a normalization of speculative demand and leveraged positioning in the broader crypto markets after the 2025 surge.

Perp volumes are often viewed as a barometer of risk appetite and liquidity in the onchain derivatives space. The DefiLlama data indicate that after rapid expansion through late 2024 and 2025, activity has retreated, even as a handful of platforms continue to generate the majority of trading volume on the sector’s perpetual markets.

Key takeaways

  • Onchain perpetual futures volumes cooled for five consecutive months after peaking in October 2025; March 2026 total fell to $699 billion from $1.36 trillion in October.
  • Daily perp DEX activity crossed below $10 billion on April 4, 2026—$8.4 billion that day—marking the lowest level since mid-2025.
  • Trading remains highly concentrated: over the last 30 days, Hyperliquid led with about $185.5 billion in reported volume, roughly 34% of the top-10 perp DEX share.
  • Top performers dwarfed smaller venues, with edgeX at $73 billion and Aster at $68 billion; smaller platforms like Lighter and Grvt trailed at about $50 billion and $40 billion respectively, while others clustered in the mid-teens to low tens of billions.
  • The 2025 period delivered a historic surge, with perpetual DEX volumes nearly tripling to about $12.09 trillion, of which roughly $7.9 trillion was generated in 2025 alone, driven by torrid Q4 activity.

A cooldown after a blistering 2025 run

DefiLlama’s quarterly and monthly breakdowns paint a picture of a market that expanded rapidly through 2024 and 2025, then settled into a more restrained pace in early 2026. After a torrid late-2025 sprint that helped push annual totals to record highs, the industry has seen a consistent deceleration in onchain perpetual futures trading. The fall in March’s total to $699 billion marks a continuation of a downward slope that began in the autumn and extended into the first quarter of 2026.

The decline aligns with a broader pattern in crypto derivatives markets: heightened risk taking in a buoyant environment often gives way to consolidation as markets absorb leverage, funding dynamics cool, and liquidity shifts across venues. While the momentum has cooled, the continued existence of robust single-day volumes—still measured in the billions—signals that perpetuals remain a core component of onchain trading activity, particularly for traders seeking leveraged exposure and hedging across crypto assets.

Liquidity concentration reshapes the perp DEX landscape

DefiLlama’s latest view underscores a persistent concentration among a handful of exchanges. In the past 30 days, Hyperliquid stood out with about $185.5 billion in reported volume, translating to roughly one-third of activity among the top-10 perp DEXs. The platform’s outsized share underscores a broader trend: despite a broader market slowdown, a few venues continue to capture a disproportionate slice of the action.

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Rivals posted markedly smaller figures. edgeX registered around $73 billion, and Aster approximately $68 billion, underscoring the gap between Hyperliquid and other leading platforms. In the mid- to lower-tier, several smaller venues contributed fewer billions apiece—Lighter about $50 billion, Grvt near $40 billion—with a handful of others generating tens of billions over the same period. This distribution highlights how liquidity remains highly centralized, even as the total market cools from its late-2025 peak.

The skew toward a few dominant platforms is not new in onchain perpetuals. The space has long featured a battlefield dynamic, with blockchain ecosystems competing to host or launch perpetual DEXs to capture trading activity. The broader narrative—recounted in industry coverage—describes a market where liquidity tends to consolidate around a small number of major venues, even as new entrants attempt to carve out a niche.

For readers tracking the data, DefiLlama’s continual perp DEX dataset offers a quick gauge of where liquidity concentrates and how that balance shifts as market sentiment ebbs and flows. The latest readings reaffirm that, despite volatility, the leading platforms retain a commanding influence over daily and monthly volumes.

From rapid growth to tempered activity: what changed this year

The 2025 period remains a watershed for onchain derivatives trading. Perp DEX volumes nearly tripled year over year to a cumulative $12.09 trillion, with about $7.9 trillion generated in the calendar year 2025 alone. The tail end of 2025—especially the fourth quarter—was pivotal, with monthly activity pacing at roughly $1 trillion on average. This surge helped establish perpetuals as a central battleground for crypto ecosystems, as blockchains raced to host or integrate perpetual DEXs to capture liquidity and user participation.

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That growth story has since shifted into a more measured phase. The consolidation of liquidity on a smaller set of venues suggests that traders have matured in their preferences for where to source leverage and how to manage risk across markets. For investors and builders, the implication is twofold: first, the leading platforms will likely continue to attract the bulk of high-value activity, reinforcing their funding, product development, and ecosystem incentives; second, smaller venues will need to differentiate through features such as lower slippage, faster execution, or novel risk controls to gain traction in a crowded field.

Analysts also point to the macro environment surrounding crypto markets as a cross-cutting factor. While perpetuals flourished as a concentrated, high-velocity trading instrument in 2025, any sustained shift in risk appetite, funding dynamics, or regulatory clarity could further influence where liquidity gravitates. As DefiLlama and other trackers continue to chart the perps landscape, observers will be watching for signs of renewed acceleration or another round of consolidation across platforms.

For additional context, earlier industry coverage has framed perpetual DEXs as central to cross-chain and cross-asset trading competition, highlighting how the governance and technical design choices of each platform can shape liquidity flow and user engagement. Those dynamic tensions remain at play as the market digests the post-2025 normalization and contemplates the next phase of growth in onchain derivatives.

Readers should monitor DefiLlama’s perp DEX dashboard for ongoing visibility into volume distribution across platforms, as well as quarterly updates on how much of the total market is captured by the top players. The trajectory from a 2025 explosion to a 2026 cooldown will likely influence funding strategies, product development, and liquidity incentives across the sector.

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Looking ahead, the central question is whether the current cooldown is temporary or if a longer-term shift in trader behavior and platform competition will redefine the perpetuals arena. As the data shows, the answer hinges on whether the dominant venues can sustain high throughput, attract fresh liquidity, and deliver the execution quality that traders demand in fast-moving markets.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Samson Mow Warns Rushed Quantum Fix Could Harm Bitcoin

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Samson Mow Warns Rushed Quantum Fix Could Harm Bitcoin

Rushed quantum fixes for Bitcoin could introduce new risks, Samson Mow warned in response to calls from Coinbase executives for faster action.

Mow, a Bitcoin advocate and Jan3 founder, took to X on Saturday to address comments from Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong and chief security officer Philip Martin, who urged the industry to begin preparing for quantum computing threats sooner rather than later.

He said that while post-quantum (PQ) cryptography could secure Bitcoin (BTC) against future quantum computers, rushing implementation may create new vulnerabilities such as compatibility issues and reduced network efficiency due to larger signature sizes.

“Simply put: make Bitcoin safe against quantum computers just to get pwned by normal computers,” Mow said, adding that a poorly timed transition could weaken Bitcoin against today’s threats before addressing future ones.

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The exchange reflects a growing debate over how to future-proof Bitcoin, as new research from Google and Caltech reignited concerns about progress in quantum computing.

Why Mow is pushing back and how it ties to the block size wars

One of Mow’s biggest concerns about rushing a quantum fix for Bitcoin is the potential impact on performance, particularly block size, or the amount of transaction data that can fit into a single block.

“PQ signatures will likely be 10-125x larger than current ones, and massively reduce throughput,” Mow said, citing former Bitcoin developer Jonas Schnelli.

Source: Jonas Schnelli

The signature issue could potentially pave the way for “Blocksize Wars 2.0,” Mow continued.

Bitcoin’s block size wars began around 2015 and peaked in 2017, when the community split over whether to increase the block size to handle more transactions.

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Related: Circle unveils quantum-resistant roadmap for its layer-1 blockchain Arc

That dispute raised concerns about decentralization, network security and who controls Bitcoin’s future, ultimately leading to alternative scaling solutions rather than a simple increase in block size.

Despite arguing against rushing a transition to post-quantum cryptography for Bitcoin, Mow said work on potential solutions should continue.

“Given that quantum computers don’t actually exist and likely won’t exist for another 10-20 years, the worst possible course of action is to rush a fix,” he said. “That’s not to say work shouldn’t be done to prepare, and there is already much work being done.”

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Magazine: Nobody knows if quantum secure cryptography will even work