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U.S. Treasury may boost T-Bill issuance as stablecoins eye $2 trillion market cap: StanChart

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U.S. Treasury may boost T-Bill issuance as stablecoins eye $2 trillion market cap: StanChart

Standard Chartered still expects the stablecoin market to reach $2 trillion by the end of 2028, which should translate into around $1 trillion in new Treasury bill demand, the bank said in a Monday report.

As of early 2026, the total stablecoin market capitalization is roughly $300-$320 billion.

“This will result in c. $0.8-$1.0 trillion of fresh demand for T-bills (for use as reserves) from stablecoin issuers over that period,” wrote Geoff Kendrick, head of digital asset research, and U.S. rates strategist John Davies.

Combined with $1-$1.2 trillion in projected Federal Reserve buying, total new T-bill demand could hit about $2.2 trillion through 2028, the report said. That compares with roughly $1.3 trillion in net new supply if bills’ share of total debt remains unchanged, implying a potential shortfall of $0.9 trillion.

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Stablecoin issuers such as Tether and Circle (CRCL) have become major buyers of short-term U.S. government debt, holding tens of billions of dollars in Treasury bills as reserves backing tokens such as USDT and USDC.

Tether alone has disclosed T-bill holdings that rival those of mid-sized sovereign investors, while Circle also keeps a significant share of its reserves in short-dated Treasuries via money market funds.

As the stablecoin market grows, issuers typically park new inflows into T-bills to earn yield while maintaining liquidity, effectively channeling crypto-driven capital into U.S. government financing and reinforcing demand at the front end of the yield curve.

The Treasury said in its February 4 Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA) that it “is monitoring SOMA purchases of Treasury bills and growing demand for Treasury bills from the private sector,” a trend Standard Chartered expects to intensify.

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The analysts said the projected excess demand gives Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent scope to lift T-bills’ share of issuance. Raising that share by 2.5 percentage points over three years would create about $0.9 trillion in additional bill supply, offsetting the gap.

Reallocating that amount from longer-dated bonds could effectively suspend 30-year auctions for three years and ease upward pressure on long-term yields, according to the report.

While not its base case, the bank expects the 10-year yield to reach 4.6% by end-2026, as the analysts warned of rising risks of front-end scarcity.

Stablecoin growth has recently stalled just above $300 billion, up from $238 billion in April 2025, as crypto prices weakened and post-GENIUS Act issuance slowed. Bitcoin has fallen more than 50% from its $126,000 October 2025 peak, dampening trading-driven demand. Standard Chartered views these headwinds as cyclical and maintains that stablecoins could add nearly $1 trillion in incremental T-bill demand by 2028, reshaping U.S. rate markets.

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Read more: Standard Chartered sees bitcoin sliding to $50,000, ether to $1,400 before recovery

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Vitalik Buterin Offloads Millions in Ethereum Holdings

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Nexo Partners with Bakkt for US Crypto Exchange and Yield Programs

TLDR

  • Vitalik Buterin swapped more than 3,100 ETH for stablecoins through CoW Swap in recent days.
  • On-chain data shows the transactions totaled over $6.1 million at current market prices.
  • His on-chain Ethereum holdings now stand at more than 224,000 ETH valued at about $426 million.
  • Buterin previously moved over $29 million in ETH, with at least $2.3 million funding Ethereum Foundation initiatives.
  • Ethereum’s price fell below $1,900 and dropped over 36% in the past month.

Vitalik Buterin has continued selling Ethereum (ETH) through decentralized exchanges in recent days. On-chain data shows he swapped thousands of ETH for stablecoins. The latest transactions come as Ethereum’s price trades below $1,900.

Vitalik Buterin Executes Fresh ETH Sales Through CoW Swap

Arkham Intelligence labeled wallets tied to Vitalik Buterin recorded recent swaps on CoW Swap. The data shows he exchanged more than 3,100 ETH for stablecoins over several days.

Those transactions equal more than $6.1 million at current prices. After the swaps, his on-chain holdings stand at over 224,000 ETH.

The remaining balance carries a value of about $426 million. The transfers follow a pattern of routine sales observed in recent weeks.

Earlier, Buterin moved over $29 million worth of Ethereum. At least $2.3 million from that amount supported Ethereum Foundation initiatives.

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He previously outlined plans to sell around $44.7 million in ETH. He linked those sales to a period of “mild austerity” for the Foundation.

Buterin said the approach would “ensure the Ethereum Foundation’s own ability to sustain in the long term.” He added it would protect Ethereum’s “core mission and goals.”

Ethereum Price Drops Below $1,900 as Market Weakens

Ethereum’s price has declined during the broader crypto market downturn. ETH has fallen about 4% over the past 24 hours.

The asset recently traded at $1,872 on major exchanges. It earlier touched a two-week low of $1,855 on Sunday.

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Over the past month, Ethereum has dropped more than 36%. The token also remains over 62% below its August all-time high of $4,946.

Buterin has also addressed Ethereum’s long-term roadmap in public statements. He said the Ethereum mainnet “needed a new plan” regarding layer-2 scaling networks.

He discussed the relationship between the base layer and scaling chains. He suggested adjustments to strengthen coordination and efficiency.

Last week, Buterin supported a new censorship-resistant upgrade for the network. He said Ethereum was “going hard” on its technical direction.

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He also referred to reviving a “cyberphunk” ethos within the ecosystem. These remarks came as developers continued work on protocol upgrades.

The recent ETH sales occurred during this period of roadmap discussion. On-chain data continues to track movements from wallets linked to Vitalik Buterin.

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Two charged in Australia over $5 million crypto fraud

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Two charged in Australia over $5 million crypto fraud

Australian authorities have charged two men following an investigation into an alleged $5 million cryptocurrency investment scam that targeted vulnerable victims across the country.

Summary

  • The New South Wales Police Force has charged two men following an investigation into an alleged $5 million cryptocurrency investment scam targeting Australians.
  • Police allege victims — including elderly and vulnerable individuals — were lured via social media into depositing funds into a fake trading platform, with money funneled through multiple crypto wallets.
  • One man has been charged and granted conditional bail, while investigations continue as authorities warn Australians about rising investment scam losses.

Australia steps up crypto fraud crackdown

The New South Wales Police Force said detectives from its Cybercrime Squad launched Strike Force Resaca to investigate reports of fraudulent online investment activity. Search warrants were executed at properties in Strathfield and Cammeray, as well as a business premises in Burwood, all located in Sydney.

Police allege the scheme lured victims, many described as elderly or financially vulnerable, through social media advertisements and unsolicited messages promoting cryptocurrency and other high-return investment opportunities.

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Victims were reportedly directed to deposit funds into what they believed was a legitimate trading platform known as “NEXOpayment.” Australian authorities claim the money was instead funnelled through multiple cryptocurrency wallets and exchanges in an attempt to disguise the movement of funds.

A 42-year-old man was arrested at a Strathfield residence and taken to Auburn Police Station, where he was charged with recklessly dealing with proceeds of crime valued above $5,000. He was granted conditional bail and is scheduled to appear at Burwood Local Court on March 17, 2026.

A 36-year-old man was also arrested at a Cammeray property and later released pending further inquiries.

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Police say investigations remain ongoing and are urging anyone who suspects they may have been targeted by an investment scam to report the matter to authorities. Officials reiterated that investment scams remain one of the highest-loss cybercrime categories in Australia.

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Bitcoin Rally To $75K Possible If These 3 Triggers Are Pulled

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Bitcoin Rally To $75K Possible If These 3 Triggers Are Pulled

Key takeaways:

  • Historical data shows Bitcoin often outperforms during trade wars and liquidity injections despite initial macro fear.

  • Resilient mining activity and a shift to net long positions on CME futures suggest professional traders are buying the dip.

Bitcoin (BTC) traders are becoming increasingly anxious after 18 days of trading below the $75,000 level. Concerns intensified following a retest of $64,200 on Monday, triggered by a retreat in global stock markets. US President Donald Trump’s decision to increase baseline import tariffs to 15% has heightened uncertainty, leading investors to adopt a more risk-averse stance.

While these events appear negative at first glance, Bitcoin has a history of outperforming during bearish macroeconomic shifts. More importantly, risk perception is gradually improving; Bitcoin miners have shown resilience, and professional traders used the recent dip to add exposure.

Bitcoin/USD, April 2025. Source: TradingView

On April 2, 2025, the Trump administration signed an executive order imposing sweeping “reciprocal tariffs” on nearly every trading partner. The situation escalated on April 9, 2025, as additional tariffs were applied to 75 countries, including a 34% rate for China. This move coincided with Bitcoin hitting a five-month low at $74,600, which was followed by a 38% rally over the next month.

Traders choose cash over Bitcoin during periods of uncertainty

The natural instinct for traders during periods of uncertainty is to seek shelter in cash and government bonds. Despite its unique benefits, Bitcoin is not yet considered a safe haven by most investors. However, once the market realizes that governments may be forced to inject liquidity to stimulate the economy, Bitcoin tends to outperform.

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Overnight repurchase Treasury securities purchased by the Fed. Source: US Fed

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) lends cash against Treasury collateral to maintain smooth funding markets and settlements. This measure should not be viewed as a direct liquidity injection, as it reflects temporary balance sheet conditions. Nevertheless, peak levels in this indicator—such as the $100 billion seen on March 16, 2020—have historically marked reversals in Bitcoin’s price trend.

In fact, the COVID-19 crash of 2020 marked the beginning of a multi-month rally, taking Bitcoin to $42,000 from $4,400. Consequently, those who claimed the cryptocurrency failed as a long-term investment while it traded 55% below its prior $19,900 all-time high between May and July 2020 were proven wrong. A similar pattern could unfold in 2026 if liquidity conditions deteriorate further.

Oracle (ORCL US) vs Coreweave (CRWV US). Source: TradingView

Nvidia (NVDA US) is scheduled to report quarterly earnings after the US stock market closes on Wednesday. Results from the chipmaker will likely set the investor mood, particularly as concerns regarding rising tech sector debt mount. Notably, shares of Coreweave (CRWV US) and Oracle (ORCL US) have already plunged over 50% from their previous all-time highs.

While conditions for companies supporting the artificial intelligence sector weaken, the exodus of investment from Bitcoin miners represents less of a risk now that the network hashrate has fully recovered from a 25% dip in January. More importantly, ASIC miners released in 2024 and early 2025 remain profitable even at an electricity cost of $0.07 per kilowatt-hour.

Related: Bitcoin miner MARA buys majority stake in AI data center firm Exaion

Bitcoin miners’ gross profits at $0.07/kWh. Source: HashRateIndex

The de-escalation of “miner death spiral” fears may have helped instill bullishness among professional fund managers. Large speculators, including hedge funds, have shifted from a net short to a net long position on CME Bitcoin futures, according to a CFTC report published last week. Analyst Tom McClellan noted that two similar historical shifts preceded significant Bitcoin price bottoms.

While no single reversal indicator can confirm if the $60,200 level on Feb. 6 marked the cycle low, the combination of liquidity concerns, fears of excessive AI sector valuations, and resilience in the mining sector could push Bitcoin’s price back toward $75,000 in the near term.

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