Crypto World
Uniswap price jumps 8% as UNI reclaims $4
Uniswap price rebounded 8% from its July 29 intraday low as Hayden Adams addressed concerns over v4 protocol fees, helping UNI reclaim the $4 psychological level.
Summary
- UNI recovered from $3.74 to $4.06, producing an intraday rebound of more than 8%.
- Daily RSI reached 66.83, showing strong momentum without entering overbought territory.
- The 4-hour chart places immediate resistance between $4.10 and $4.30.
- A rising wedge and weak 19.77 ADX leave UNI exposed to a short-term pullback.
Uniswap price returns above $4
According to data from crypto.news, Uniswap (UNI) price traded at $4.02 at the time of writing after briefly reaching $4.06, according to the Binance daily chart. The intraday rebound from $3.74 amounted to about 8.5%, while the token was up roughly 3% from its daily opening price.
UNI has now recovered more than 70% from its June low near $2.35. The rally has formed a sequence of higher highs and higher lows, allowing the token to return to a price area last tested in May.

Momentum remains favorable on the daily timeframe. UNI is trading above its Supertrend support at $3.23, while the relative strength index has risen to 66.83. The RSI remains below the standard overbought threshold of 70, although the reading shows that buying conditions are becoming stretched.
The daily candle also approached the May swing high near $4.15. A close above that level would strengthen the case that UNI has moved beyond a temporary relief rally and entered a broader recovery phase.
Hayden Adams addresses Uniswap v4 fee concerns
The immediate move followed comments from Uniswap founder Hayden Adams about the protocol’s v4 fee structure.
Adams said the protocol fee would be added to the liquidity provider fee instead of being deducted from it. Under his example, traders using a pool with a 30-basis-point liquidity provider fee would pay 35 basis points in total. Liquidity providers would continue receiving 30 basis points, while five basis points would go to the protocol.
The clarification addressed concerns that activating protocol fees would lower returns for liquidity providers and potentially push capital toward competing decentralized exchanges.
Uniswap has also submitted governance proposals covering protocol fees from v4 pools and deployments on Robinhood Chain. The proposals would send new protocol revenue into the existing UNI burn mechanism, creating a clearer connection between exchange activity and the token’s circulating supply.
That connection has gained attention since Robinhood Chain launched on July 1. Uniswap generated about $5.16 million in fees during one 24-hour period earlier this month, according to DefiLlama data cited by crypto.news. Roughly $4.38 million came from Robinhood Chain.
Uniswap volume on the network crossed $1 billion within nine days of launch. However, future UNI burns will still depend on governance approval, fee collection and sustained trading activity.
UNI faces resistance between $4.10 and $4.30
The 4-hour chart shows that UNI has moved above the $4.00 top of its recent trading range. The next technical level sits at $4.10, identified by the Murrey Math indicator as a strong reversal pivot.

A sustained close above $4.10 could open the path toward $4.20 and $4.30. The latter represents the indicator’s ultimate resistance level. Beyond that, the chart places extended targets at $4.40, $4.49 and $4.59.
However, the average directional index stands at 19.77. An ADX reading below 20 suggests that the current trend has not yet developed strong directional conviction, despite the price breakout.
The one-week CoinGlass liquidation heatmap also shows a dense concentration of leveraged positions around $3.98 to $4.03. UNI’s move through this area likely forced some short sellers to close their positions, adding buy pressure to the rebound.

Additional liquidity is visible near $4.07 to $4.10, making that zone a possible short-term price target. On the downside, the main liquidity clusters sit near $3.90, $3.72 and $3.60.
If UNI loses $4.00, the 4-hour chart identifies $3.91 as the first support. Lower levels appear at $3.81 and $3.71. The bullish structure would weaken more clearly below the $3.52 support zone.
Analysts see breakout and pullback scenarios
Analyst Gopal identified a rising wedge on the UNI chart, noting that the token continues to form higher highs and higher lows inside a narrowing structure.
According to the analyst, repeated tests of wedge support suggest that bullish momentum may be losing strength. A confirmed break below the lower trendline could cause a deeper correction, while a breakout above the upper boundary would invalidate the bearish setup.
Nebraska Gooner also described UNI as being at resistance. The analyst said reclaiming the red resistance area on his chart could create a moving-average squeeze and lead to a stronger rally. His setup points toward the $5 region if UNI establishes support above the current barrier.
The two views make the $4.10–$4.30 range central to UNI’s next move. A confirmed breakout would reduce the risk posed by the rising wedge, while rejection could send the token back toward $3.80 or the ascending support line.
US macro conditions remain a risk for UNI
Uniswap’s growth on Robinhood Chain gives the rally a direct US market connection. The network has brought decentralized trading infrastructure closer to Robinhood’s user base, while Uniswap’s Permissioned Pools could support tokenized funds and equities subject to investor eligibility rules.
Uniswap Labs launched Permissioned Pools with Securitize, Superstate and Dowgo as early participants. The v4-based framework allows issuers to control which wallets can trade or provide liquidity, making it more suitable for regulated assets.
Still, UNI’s breakout comes ahead of a Federal Reserve rate decision that could drive volatility across US stocks and crypto. A hawkish policy signal could reduce demand for risk assets, and pressure leveraged UNI positions.
UNI must therefore hold above $4.00 and clear $4.10 to confirm the breakout. Failure to do so would leave the rising-wedge warning active, with $3.81 and $3.71 serving as the next levels to watch.
Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.
Crypto World
Australia Sues Telegram as Russia Charges Pavel Durov While Gram Climbs to $1.41
Australia has launched legal action against Telegram over alleged failures to remove extremist content from its platform. The case comes as Russia files criminal charges against Telegram founder Pavel Durov. Meanwhile, GRAM traded at $1.41, recovering after a sharp weekly decline despite growing regulatory pressure.
Australia Targets Telegram Under Online Safety Act
Australia’s eSafety Commission has started civil penalty proceedings against Telegram in the Federal Court. The regulator alleges the messaging platform failed to meet safety obligations under the country’s Online Safety Act. Authorities are seeking penalties that could reach A$54.6 million if the court finds Telegram breached the law.
The action follows a lengthy investigation into Telegram’s handling of harmful online material. Regulators examined whether the company had effective systems to detect and remove extremist content. The review also covered child exploitation material and violent criminal content distributed through the platform.
The commission stated that Telegram left prohibited material available after receiving notifications. The regulator identified videos linked to the 2019 Christchurch mosque attack and the 2022 Buffalo shooting among the reported content. Australian authorities argue that the platform failed to meet mandatory safety standards for digital services.
Global Pressure on Pavel Durov Continues
The legal action in Australia adds to broader regulatory pressure facing Telegram and its founder, Pavel Durov. Russian authorities recently charged Durov with facilitating terrorist activities through the platform. The country’s Federal Security Service also placed him on an international wanted list after issuing an arrest warrant.
French authorities have also investigated Telegram over concerns about illegal content and cooperation with law enforcement agencies. Prosecutors examined whether the company responded adequately to official requests involving criminal investigations. Those inquiries have increased scrutiny of Telegram’s moderation practices across several jurisdictions.
Telegram has maintained its focus on user privacy despite increasing legal challenges. The company continues to oppose requests that could weaken encryption or create backdoor access. At the same time, Telegram recently introduced network improvements and reduced transaction fees on its ecosystem to almost zero.
Gram Price Recovers Despite Regulatory Challenges
GRAM traded at $1.41 during the latest session after recovering from recent losses. The token gained around 2% over several hours following a weekly decline of approximately 12%. Trading activity placed the daily range between $1.38 and $1.43.
The recovery came even as legal developments surrounding Telegram continued to dominate headlines. Market participants saw the token stabilize after sustained selling pressure during the previous week. Even so, the price remains below levels recorded before the recent decline.
GRAM has historically reacted to major developments involving Telegram because of the close association between the platform and its ecosystem. Regulatory actions have often influenced short-term market activity. However, broader market conditions also continue to affect the token’s price performance.
Australia’s latest legal action represents another significant challenge for Telegram as governments increase oversight of online platforms. Russia’s charges against Pavel Durov further add to the company’s legal and regulatory pressures across multiple jurisdictions. The combined developments highlight growing international efforts to enforce stricter online safety standards while Telegram continues to defend its privacy-focused approach.
Crypto World
Australia Files Suit Against Telegram Over Alleged Terror Content Failures
Australia’s eSafety Commissioner has taken Telegram to court, launching civil penalty proceedings in the Federal Court over allegations that the messaging platform failed to address terrorism-linked content under the country’s Online Safety Act. The action was filed on Thursday, according to an eSafety statement.
The regulator’s complaint focuses on what it describes as repeated failures to remove pro-terror material after becoming aware of it, along with insufficient steps to prevent repeated breaches. The case is likely to add pressure to Telegram as governments across Europe and beyond continue testing how large platforms should moderate harmful content.
Key takeaways
- eSafety says Telegram breached obligations under Australia’s Online Safety Act by not responding adequately to multiple user complaints about pro-terror content.
- The regulator alleges some unlawful material remained visible for as long as three weeks after Telegram was aware of it.
- eSafety also claims Telegram did not take sufficient measures to curb repeat distribution, including removing accounts, channels, and groups tied to the content.
- The proceedings seek civil penalties, with potential fines under Australia’s online safety rules reaching up to 54.6 million Australian dollars.
- The case follows heightened legal scrutiny of Telegram and CEO Pavel Durov in other countries, including recent Russian actions.
Australia’s civil penalty case centers on alleged moderation failures
In its filing, Australia’s online safety regulator alleges Telegram failed to remove certain unlawful material after it had notice of the content. eSafety described a year-long investigation that, in its view, showed Telegram did not act in time once it became aware.
According to eSafety, the issue wasn’t limited to a single piece of content. The regulator alleged that reported pro-terror material continued to be visible for up to three weeks, even after warnings were raised. It also claims Telegram did not do enough to prevent repeat violations by adequately disrupting the accounts and communities used to distribute the content.
The allegations include failures to detect known extremist material—specifically footage connected to two major mass shootings: the 2019 Christchurch mosque attack and the 2022 Buffalo mass shooting—before the material was later removed, eSafety said.
Why this matters for Telegram users and platform compliance
Beyond the immediate legal stakes, the case underscores how regulators are increasingly tying platform expectations to concrete operational outcomes: timeliness of takedowns, responsiveness to reports, and the ability to limit repeat distribution. For Telegram users, the dispute highlights a growing tension between broad claims about speech and encryption-based design choices versus statutory duties that require platforms to manage certain categories of harmful content.
For Telegram, the compliance challenge is not only about removing content after it is identified, but also about demonstrating systems that can detect and disrupt known extremist material and prevent reappearance via networks of channels, groups, and related accounts. eSafety’s emphasis on alleged repeated violations suggests the regulator may treat moderation as an ongoing obligation rather than a one-off response to individual reports.
Regulatory pressure is widening internationally
The Australian proceedings arrive amid a broader wave of legal scrutiny targeting Telegram’s moderation approach. The case adds to pressure on both the company and its CEO, Pavel Durov, as multiple governments seek more direct accountability from major communication platforms.
eSafety’s move comes a day after Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) charged Durov with facilitating terrorist activity and said it had started steps to add him to an international wanted list. Russia’s allegations include claims that Telegram failed to remove channels, chats, and bots used by Ukrainian intelligence services, terrorist groups, and extremist organizations to coordinate attacks, recruit operatives, and carry out cyber fraud.
Telegram has not issued an official statement on the Australian case. However, the platform’s official X account posted content described as related to “freedom of expression.” In response to international criticism, Telegram has repeatedly framed moderation and legal pressure through the lens of free speech and user rights.
France and Russia-related cases continue to develop
Durov is also facing legal exposure in France following his August 2024 arrest at Le Bourget Airport. French prosecutors have charged him with offenses that include complicity in the distribution of illegal content, including material related to organized crime, through Telegram.
The broader regulatory environment has also shaped Telegram’s public positioning. Durov has criticized what he described as increasing threats to online privacy, arguing that governments were rolling back protections for the free internet. In a post on X dated October 2025, he warned that the promise of free information exchange was being turned into a “tool of control.”
While the Australian case is not identical to the allegations in Russia or France, the common thread is that regulators are increasingly testing whether Telegram’s platform model can meet legal expectations around harmful content—particularly content connected to terrorism and violent extremism.
As the Australian proceedings move forward, investors, traders, and builders will likely watch not only for any outcomes in court, but also for whether Telegram changes its moderation and enforcement processes in a measurable way—especially around response timelines, repeat distribution, and the handling of clearly identified extremist media.
Crypto World
Founder of Russia’s largest crypto mining operation transferred to a detention center
A Russian court transferred Igor Runets, the founder of the country’s largest crypto mining company BitRiver, to a pretrial detention facility to face trial for fraud, Pravo.ru reported on Thursday.
Runets is charged with “large-scale” fraud, according to the news service. Investigators allege he caused damages exceeding 1 billion rubles ($12.5 million) by failing to deliver equipment to Infrastructure of Siberia, a subsidiary of En+, a multibillion-dollar corporation that produces 5% of the world’s aluminum and also manages digital, technology and crypto mining infrastructure projects.
Russian law enforcement officials say that in 2023, Runets entered into an equipment supply contract worth $8 million that it never fulfilled, according to Pravo.ru.
Runets, a crypto mining pioneer in Russia, was reportedly detained and placed on house arrest in February on three charges of tax evasion. The Stanford University MBA graduate began building a crypto mining data center in Siberia in 2017, the same year he founded BitRiver. He later expanded the operation to 15 data centers with more than 175,000 servers.
Following the closure of several of his crypto mining centers due to a six-year government ban across 10 regions, BitRiver began facing financial issues. A regional arbitration court opened insolvency proceedings against its controlling shareholder, Group of Companies Fox, which owns 98% of BitRiver’s authorized capital, in February.
Crypto World
Completion of This Chart Pattern Could Send BTC to $220K, Says Analyst
Sen told his 270,000 X followers on Thursday that Bitcoin has just completed a multi-year cup-and-handle pattern with a breakout and perfect retest. This structure, which took years to build, has now been confirmed, he added.
“Cup-and-handle breakouts don’t move 20%, the move hundreds of percent,” he said before making a bold price prediction.
“The launch is next … $220K is the minimum target.”
Previous Patterns Ended in Big Breakouts
The cup and handle is a classic bullish continuation pattern in technical analysis. It resembles a teacup on a chart, and a breakout above the handle’s resistance often signals strong upside, with a measured target equal to the cup’s depth added to the breakout point.
I’M SORRY, BUT NOBODY IS TALKING ABOUT WHAT BITCOIN JUST DID.
MULTI-YEAR CUP AND HANDLE. COMPLETE.
BREAKOUT. DONE.
PERFECT RETEST. DONE.
STRUCTURE CONFIRMED. DONE.THIS PATTERN TOOK YEARS TO BUILD.
AND NOBODY NOTICED.
CUP AND HANDLE BREAKOUTS DON’T MOVE 20%.
THEY MOVE… pic.twitter.com/hK6LlNZk0X— Vivek Sen (@Vivek4real_) July 30, 2026
Bitcoin has formed this pattern previously, often preceding major rallies. During the 2020 to 2021 cycle, a multi-month cup formed from 2019 highs down to the 2020 low, with a handle in summer 2020. The breakout led to the run toward the peak at $69,000 in November 2021. Through 2022 and 2023, Bitcoin formed a massive, rounded bottom on the weekly chart as institutional accumulation picked up.
By early 2024, the price consolidated in the $60,000 to $69,000 range, forming the handle, before an explosive breakout to over $100,000. However, there may be a little further to go with this handle, as many analysts have targeted October as the bottom and cycle inflection point.
Swissblock reported that Bitcoin’s Risk Index peaked in late June before transitioning into low risk, “allowing selling pressure to ease and price to stabilize.”
However, a divergence is forming with Bitcoin risk remaining subdued while the VIX has returned to the fear zone. The VIX is the CBOE Volatility Index, which is often called the “fear index” as it measures the market’s expectation of 30-day forward-looking volatility in the S&P 500.
A rising VIX often signals deteriorating market conditions that weigh on BTC, while a low and stable VIX supports risk appetite favorable to crypto.
“If the VIX continues rising and Bitcoin Risk reignites, the canary will begin singing again,” said Swissblock.
The $220,000 price prediction comes just after another one, a lot more bullish, set a massive target of up to $450,000 per BTC. The time horizon for that one is by March 2028.
BTC Price Outlook
Bitcoin has been choppy over the past 24 hours following the Federal Reserve decision to keep rates unchanged. The asset tapped intraday highs of $64,500 three times before retreating to the high $63,000 zone during the Thursday morning Asian trading session.
Volatility could increase as the US has resumed military strikes on Iran late on Wednesday. “The strikes are a powerful response to yesterday’s attempted Iranian attacks on US forces based in the Middle East,” stated Central Command.
The post Completion of This Chart Pattern Could Send BTC to $220K, Says Analyst appeared first on CryptoPotato.
Crypto World
Bitcoin Price Prediction: Bitcoin ETFs End 4 Day Outflow Streak
U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs have snapped a four-session outflow streak, and the timing matters for the Bitcoin price prediction. Bitcoin trades near $64,000, recovering after briefly slipping below that level during Wednesday’s session. The rebound in ETF flows is modest, yet the change in direction offers a clearer signal of institutional sentiment.
Wednesday’s net inflows reached $32.1 million, ending four straight sessions of outflows totaling more than $500 million. Monthly net inflows for US spot Bitcoin ETFs now stand above $220 million. Meanwhile, cumulative lifetime inflows remain above $51 billion, highlighting their growing role in Bitcoin demand.

Spot Ether ETFs moved the other way on Wednesday, recording $18.65 million in net outflows. Even so, Ether ETFs still hold stronger monthly inflows than their Bitcoin counterparts. That contrast suggests institutions remain selective instead of pulling capital from digital assets altogether.
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index remains at 28, keeping sentiment firmly in the fear zone. Still, ETF inflows returned despite cautious retail positioning. That gap between institutional buying and hesitant retail traders is the key setup heading into the FOMC decision.
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Bitcoin Price Prediction: Can BTC Reclaim $65,000 as ETF Flows Stabilize?
Bitcoin is trading near $64,000, holding within a technically important range. The session low around $63,300 tested a support zone that has repeatedly attracted buyers. Meanwhile, the intraday high near $64,400 remains intact, showing sellers are still defending overhead resistance.
ETF flows are once again acting as a real-time gauge of institutional sentiment. Earlier this year, a 13-session outflow streak erased roughly $4.3 billion before inflows finally returned. A similar pattern has emerged again on a smaller scale. BlackRock’s IBIT has led buying during each reversal, and Wednesday’s return to net inflows follows that trend.
The bullish case sees daily ETF inflows consistently exceeding $50 million, while a less hawkish Fed helps Bitcoin reclaim $65,500. That would put $68,000 into focus. The base case keeps Bitcoin between $63,000 and $65,500, allowing the price to build a stronger foundation before the next breakout.
The bearish scenario appears if the Fed surprises with a hawkish stance or ETF outflows resume. In that case, Bitcoin could lose $63,000 support and revisit the $60,000 to $61,500 demand zone. Until then, ETF flows remain one of the market’s clearest signals.
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Bitcoin Hyper Targets Early Mover Upside as Bitcoin Tests Key Levels
Bitcoin’s mid-$64,000 consolidation reflects an asset at full price discovery, and $51 billion in cumulative ETF inflows already priced in. The asymmetric upside for most traders is narrowing as each ETF flow reversal generates diminishing surprise. That’s where the risk/reward calculation shifts toward earlier-stage infrastructure plays built on Bitcoin’s own rails.
Bitcoin Hyper ($HYPER) is positioning itself as exactly that. It is the first Bitcoin Layer 2 with full Solana Virtual Machine (SVM) integration, targeting the core limitations that have historically kept developers off Bitcoin: slow throughput, high fees, and limited programmability.
The architecture delivers sub-second finality and low-cost smart contract execution while inheriting Bitcoin’s security model, or a combination no other L2 has shipped. The presale has raised close to $33 million at a current price of $0.0136839, with staking already live.
Research Bitcoin Hyper as a satellite position to a core BTC holding, not a replacement for it.
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The post Bitcoin Price Prediction: Bitcoin ETFs End 4 Day Outflow Streak appeared first on Cryptonews.
Crypto World
Robinhood Reports Record $1.3B Q2 Revenue, Crypto Declines 38%
Robinhood’s Q2 revenue grew 32% year-over-year, hitting a record $1.31 billion as growth across options, equities, and event contracts surged. Wall Street had predicted $1.26 billion in revenue for Robinhood during Q2.
Despite the impressive numbers, the platform’s crypto revenue fell substantially, declining 38% year-over-year to $100 million.
Robinhood’s Record Quarter
Robinhood has reported robust growth across its equities, events contracts, and options segments. According to the company’s earnings report, its net income grew 48% year-over-year to $573 million, while diluted earnings per share increased 48% to $0.62. The quarterly results also include $129 million in gains tied to the deconsolidation of the Robinhood Ventures Fund I. Chief Financial Officer Shiv Verma stated,
“We delivered record revenues and drove new highs across equity, option, and event contract volumes, as we continue to win market share.”
Robinhood’s record numbers were primarily driven by a surge in transaction-based revenue, which increased 44% year-over-year to $776 million. The platform generated $156 million from events contracts, a 10x increase from the previous year. Revenue from options jumped 29% to $342 million, and equities revenue jumped 95% to $129 million. Revenue from net interest rose 9% to $389 million. However, these gains were partly offset by lower short-term interest rates and securities lending activity. CEO Vlad Tenev stated,
“Whether it’s the Robinhood Chain, Robinhood Ventures, or Trump Accounts, our product velocity is focused on one goal: making everyone an owner.”
Meanwhile, Robinhood’s operating expenses rose 33% year-over-year to $734 million, largely due to investments in marketing and growth, restructuring charges linked with its June workforce reduction, and other expenses related to Trump Accounts and Rothera. Lastly, Adjusted EBITDA rose 35% to $741 million. Despite the strong numbers, HOOD is trading around $89.84, down over 3%.
Crypto Business Struggles
While Robinhood’s numbers are impressive, its crypto business struggled, declining 38% year-over-year to $100 million. The decline can be attributed to a broader downturn in the cryptocurrency market due to geopolitical and policy headwinds. However, the trading platform reported record trading activity, including an equity notional trading volume of $956 billion, 774 million options contracts, and 13.6 billion events contracts. Robinhood reported a crypto notional trading volume of $40 billion, with $18 billion through the Robinhood app and $22 billion through Bitstamp.
Analysts Bullish On Robinhood
Market analysts are bullish on Robinhood, with Bernstein raising its price target on HOOD from $130 to $160. Analysts expect the platform’s retail trading, prediction markets, and equities businesses will drive significant growth. They also expect new revenue from perpetual futures and Robinhood Chain. Bernstein analysts have applied a calendar-year earnings-per-share estimate of $4.56 for 2028, with revenue from prediction markets estimated to reach $1.7 billion by 2028.
Robinhood debuted in the prediction markets space in October 2024, offering presidential-election contracts. It launched a dedicated prediction markets hub in March 2025, and Rothera, a CFTC-licensed exchange and clearinghouse, in June. Rothera is independently managed via a joint venture with Susquehanna International Group.
Robinhood Chain
Robinhood recently launched Robinhood Chain, a layer-2 network built using Arbitrum’s tech stack. The total value locked (TVL) in Robinhood Chain is $325 million as of Tuesday. CEO Vlad Tenev stated Robinhood Chain has seen “great initial traction,” and decentralized exchanges have processed over $12 billion in trading volume. Tenev added that Robinhood Chain has already surpassed 150 million transactions and was the fastest to reach 100 million.
Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
Crypto World
Bitcoin and ether markets are ruled by perps. SpaceX showed how far their influence can go
Ask most people how a crypto price gets set and they will describe spot trading: buyers and sellers meet on an exchange, and the last trade prints the price. But that has not been how it actually works for years as far as bitcoin, ether and the broader crypto markets are concerned.
Perpetual futures, also called perpetual swaps or “perps” for short, are leverage-friendly contracts that never expire, and they now account for roughly 93% of all crypto futures volume, with daily perp volume routinely running larger than the spot market underneath it.
A traditional futures contract has a settlement date, which is when it comes due and its price is forced to meet the spot price of the thing it tracks, also called the underlying. But a perpetual has no such date and can be held indefinitely (by paying a cost known as ‘funding rate,’ which varies daily).

A body of market-microstructure work has asked which venue “discovers” a bitcoin price first, meaning where new information enters the market before it shows up anywhere else. The answer has repeatedly come back pointing at derivatives.
A study in the Journal of Financial Markets by Carol Alexander and co-authors found that perpetual swaps on unregulated venues were the strongest instruments for bitcoin price discovery, with regulated futures and U.S. spot exchanges reacting to, rather than leading, those moves.
Other work has identified Binance’s perpetual market as the primary source of price formation across the fragmented crypto landscape.
The evidence is not conclusive, however, and some studies find spot still leads at certain frequencies or during stress. But the direction of the literature over the past few years has been toward the derivatives market as the place where the price is made.
“Historically, we have seen perps leading mostly during bear market price rallies,” Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, told CoinDesk. “For example, Bitcoin perps demand growth (blue bars in the chart) led the price rallies of January 2026, and April-May 2026.”
“In these periods, spot demand was contracting, while perps demand expanded, thus the perpetual futures market was leading prices despite demand contracting on the spot market,” he said.

Which brings us back to the funding rate. Because a perpetual contract never settles, nothing forces its price back toward spot the way an expiry date does for a traditional future. Instead, every few hours, whichever side of the trade is crowded pays the other.
When the perp trades above spot, traders who are long (or betting on higher prices) pay those who are short (betting on lower prices), which nudges the contract back toward the underlying price.
The funding rate is both the tether that keeps the contract anchored and a live readout of sentiment, which is why some traders watch it as closely as price.
“We actually surveyed more than 100 of our traders,” Hong Yea, co-founder at onchain trading platform Grvt, told CoinDesk. “The traders who actually rely on us to hold real conviction positions want predictability there, not another data point to interpret.”
“If you’re holding a directional position for weeks, funding isn’t telling you something new about the market, it’s just eating into your PnL while you wait to be right. That’s the honest way our users describe it to us, not, ‘what is the market telling me,” Yea added.
The SpaceX use case
None of this requires a spot market to exist. And for about three weeks in May and June, one of the most-watched markets in the world was for a company that had never sold a public share was running on crypto rails.
Elon Musk-owned SpaceX priced its record $75 billion initial public offering at $135 a share and began trading on the Nasdaq on June 12. Well before that, traders on Binance, Coinbase, Hyperliquid and others were already buying and selling exposure to the company through pre-IPO perpetual futures, or contracts structured to track an implied valuation rather than a share price.
The first mover was Hyperliquid, the onchain derivatives exchange, where a synthetic SpaceX perpetual went live on May 18. Binance opened its own SpaceX market on May 21, Coinbase followed on June 4, and BitMEX, Bitget and OKX later added contracts of their own.
The striking part is how right they were at the one moment their accuracy could be tested. On the night before SpaceX listed, perpetuals on Hyperliquid and Binance were quoting the equivalent of roughly $170 a share, well above the $135 the underwriters had set.
The next day SPCX opened, ran to an intraday high above $176, and closed its first session at $161, up 19%. The stock printed almost exactly where the perps had it, and a market dominated by leverage-seeking retail traders had read first-day demand more accurately than the banks that spent months building the offering price.

That gap was also where the money was. The perpetual market was pricing SpaceX well above the $135 IPO price, so traders could buy the contract before listing and bet the two would meet. Every one of these contracts was built to automatically switch over to SpaceX’s real share price the moment the stock began trading, so any gap between the perp and the eventual opening price would close on its own. With the IPO already four times oversubscribed, the direction was rarely in doubt, and the pre-listing window was the only place to make the trade.
Then reality caught up with the market that had predicted it. SPCX has fallen more than 40% from its June peak, dropping from the $135 IPO price to about $115 as of publication.
The reason is one the perp could never have priced — supply. Only a sliver of SpaceX’s shares were sold at the IPO, and starting around August 6, roughly 900 million locked-up insider shares become eligible to sell.
What SpaceX showed in the extreme is what the research says is already true in ordinary crypto trading — the derivatives market is increasingly where price gets discovered. Spot follows.
Perps are excellent at pricing demand and blind to supply, which is worth remembering every time a bitcoin rally or a flush starts in the funding rate before it reaches spot.
Crypto World
XRP Price Stabilizes as Korean Police Arrest Three in Fraudulent Scam
XRP price is trading around $1.08 after slipping over the past 24 hours. Even so, the market stayed relatively steady despite a major fraud case in South Korea. Authorities arrested three suspects linked to a fake XRP staking scheme that stole 3.4 million XRP, worth about 12.3 billion won, from 71 investors. An Interpol Red Notice remains active for a fourth suspect overseas.
The Seoul Metropolitan Police Agency said the group operated the fraudulent website Fxrpntwork.com. It promised monthly returns of 1.5% to 1.8% through blog posts, online articles, and YouTube videos. Investigators tracked the stolen XRP on-chain and froze the suspects’ wallets within three days of receiving the first report. The alleged ringleader was arrested after returning to South Korea, while two accomplices were caught fleeing within the country.
Meanwhile, the case reflects South Korea’s tougher approach toward crypto-related fraud. Investigators continue to pursue scams that target retail investors through fake investment platforms. Authorities have also highlighted blockchain’s transparency, as transaction records helped trace the stolen funds quickly.
Despite the headlines, XRP avoided a sharp selloff and continued trading near recent levels. That suggests traders viewed the incident as an isolated criminal case rather than a network issue. Even so, market sentiment could change if similar enforcement actions increase across the region.
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Can XRP Price Hit $1.20 This Week?
XRP price is trading around $1.08 after breaking below its recent trading range. The token hit an intraday high near $1.09 and found support around $1.05. The narrow trading range points to consolidation rather than a decisive trend, while recent price action shows sellers still hold the upper hand.
Support now sits in the $1.05 to $1.06 zone, where buyers have repeatedly stepped in. Initial resistance has shifted to $1.08, while $1.10 remains the first major barrier. A sustained move above that level could reopen the path toward $1.20, although stronger buying volume would be needed.
The bull case sees XRP reclaiming $1.10 on convincing volume before attempting a move toward $1.20. The base case remains sideways trading between $1.05 and $1.10 as investors wait for a fresh catalyst. On the downside, losing $1.05 could expose the psychological $1.00 level.
Meanwhile, the South Korean fraud arrests removed a source of negative headlines without affecting the XRP Ledger itself. Traders largely treated the incident as a criminal case rather than a protocol issue. For now, XRP price remains more sensitive to macroeconomic expectations and overall risk appetite than isolated enforcement actions.
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LiquidChain Targets Early Mover Upside as XRP Tests Key Levels
XRP at $1.08 is not a bad place to be long, but the upside math from current levels is incremental. A move to $1.20 is a 11% gain. That’s where early-stage infrastructure plays enter the conversation, not as a replacement for XRP exposure, but as a different risk-return profile entirely.
LiquidChain ($LIQUID) is a Layer 3 infrastructure project positioning itself as the cross-chain liquidity layer. It fuses Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana liquidity into a single execution environment.
The core architecture centers on a Unified Liquidity Layer with single-step execution and deploy-once architecture, meaning developers ship once and access all three ecosystems without fragmented bridge risk.
As of today, the presale is priced at $0.01485 with $920K raised.
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The post XRP Price Stabilizes as Korean Police Arrest Three in Fraudulent Scam appeared first on Cryptonews.
Crypto World
Hyperliquid Draws First Japanese Corporate Buyer as US Funds Shed $27 Million
Eole has become the first Japanese listed company to hold Hyperliquid (HYPE). The Tokyo-listed firm bought 1,078 tokens for 10.08 million yen.
The purchase lands as US-listed HYPE funds record their longest stretch without inflows since launch. Large holders have moved tokens onto exchanges over the same period.
Japanese Firm Commits 100 Million Yen to Hyperliquid
The company paid an average of 9,352.776 yen per token. It plans further purchases in tranches through the end of August, taking the total to 100 million yen.
Eole ties the buy to its Neo Crypto Bank plan, announced in October 2025. The company argues that AI without bank accounts needs settlement rails that run entirely in software. Smart contracts would carry those payments at low cost and high speed.
“As part of driving that infrastructure forward, eole has now acquired HYPE — the native token of Hyperliquid, the world’s largest on-chain derivatives platform and one well suited to autonomous AI agent execution — as a strategic asset, in addition to its existing Bitcoin (BTC) holdings. The company says this is the first such case by a listed company in Japan,” the firm said.
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US Funds Move the Other Way
While fresh demand has emerged in some parts of the market, US-listed HYPE ETFs have continued to see capital leave.
The spot HYPE funds have not recorded any inflows since July 15. Instead, they posted seven outflow sessions and three flat trading days.
Over that period, investors withdrew roughly $27 million, reducing the funds’ combined assets under management from $370.8 million on July 6 to $252.38 million.
Large token holders have also shifted HYPE to exchanges. Blockchain analytics firm Lookonchain identified two notable transfers this week.
Multicoin Capital moved 137,100 HYPE, worth about $7.51 million, to Coinbase Prime. Meanwhile, a wallet tied to Selini Capital transferred 495,473 HYPE, valued at approximately $26.8 million, to OKX. Combined, the two transactions involved 632,573 HYPE.
The broader price trend has remained weak throughout July. HYPE traded at $53.9 on Thursday, down 19.4% over the past 30 days, making it the worst-performing token among the top 20 cryptocurrencies during that period.
The token also remains 29.8% below its June 16 all-time high of over $76, having surrendered all of the gains from its brief July rally, when it briefly traded above $70.
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The post Hyperliquid Draws First Japanese Corporate Buyer as US Funds Shed $27 Million appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Crypto World
Chinese newspaper warns firms over Bitcoin extortion scam
China Business Journal warned on July 30 that fraudsters had impersonated the publication while demanding Bitcoin from companies threatened with negative news coverage.
Summary
- China Business Journal says scammers demanded Bitcoin while impersonating reporters and threatening targeted companies online.
- The newspaper says the Proton Mail messages were unauthorized and appeared to constitute fraudulent activity.
- No Bitcoin address, payment amount or confirmed victim loss was publicly disclosed in Thursday’s statement.
According to the newspaper’s statement, the scammers contacted businesses through an address hosted by Proton Mail. They claimed that undercover investigations had uncovered damaging information about the targeted companies.
The senders allegedly threatened to publish the purported findings unless the companies transferred Bitcoin. The publication said it had not authorized the messages and considered the operation a suspected fraud scheme.
Scammers allegedly used negative coverage as leverage
The emails appeared to combine two established fraud methods: impersonating a recognized organization and threatening reputational damage to force payment.
China Business Journal said the perpetrators presented themselves as representatives of the newspaper. They then offered to suppress the alleged investigation in exchange for Bitcoin. The publication did not reproduce the full emails or identify the businesses contacted.
The allegation remains based on the newspaper’s account. No suspect has been named, and no law enforcement agency had publicly announced an arrest or criminal filing connected to the emails as of July 30.
Chinese authorities have previously prosecuted people who impersonated journalists or used negative coverage to demand money. In a 2025 case published by China’s news regulator, three people were convicted after using purported environmental reporting to extort 16 companies.
China Business Journal says the emails were unauthorized
The newspaper said the messages did not come from its authorized reporting or business operations. It is collecting evidence and reserved the right to pursue civil and criminal action against those responsible.
The warning is intended to help companies distinguish genuine reporting inquiries from payment demands. A legitimate request for comment may contain difficult questions, but demands for cryptocurrency in exchange for suppressing publication are a clear warning sign.
China Business Journal was established in 1985. It operates under the supervision of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and is organized by the academy’s Institute of Industrial Economics.
The scammers’ use of the publication’s identity could therefore make the emails appear credible to executives unfamiliar with its official contact procedures.
The newspaper did not disclose a Bitcoin wallet address, requested amount, transaction hash or payment deadline. It also did not say whether any targeted company transferred funds.
Without a wallet address, independent researchers cannot examine the blockchain for payments linked to the alleged scheme. The available information confirms the warning, but not whether the fraudsters successfully collected Bitcoin.
The use of Proton Mail does not establish who sent the emails. Proton allows users to report suspected phishing and abusive messages to its security team. Its guidance asks recipients to preserve and submit the original message when reporting suspicious activity.
The newspaper also did not announce whether it had contacted Proton or Chinese police. Any account suspension, identification request or criminal investigation would require further action by the relevant service provider and authorities.
Companies face a familiar impersonation tactic
China’s internet regulator has previously warned that criminals sometimes pose as legitimate news organizations, threaten to publish negative material and demand payment from companies or individuals.
The latest case adds Bitcoin to that model. Cryptocurrency allows a recipient to request direct payment without using a conventional company bank account. However, the demand itself does not prove that the scammers received funds or successfully concealed their identities.
U.S. prosecutors charged a teenager over an alleged $8 million crypto ransom scheme tied to corporate intrusions and impersonation tactics.
Additionally, Coinbase refused a $20 million ransom demand after attackers claimed they possessed stolen customer information.
China Business Journal said it would continue gathering evidence. The next verified update could come from the newspaper, Proton, police authorities or a company that received one of the emails.
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