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Volatility ahead of US jobs report

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Bitcoin price prediction ahead of U.S. jobs report: Volatility back in focus - 2

Bitcoin price is back on shaky ground ahead of Wednesday’s nonfarm payrolls release. The 8:30 a.m. ET data drop has traders on edge, as macro catalysts often trigger sudden volatility.

More than $250 million in leveraged trades were flushed out in just one day, hammering long positions the hardest. The move below short-term support blindsided bulls and reinforced how quickly this market can unravel.

Summary

  • Bitcoin is trading near $66,700, slipping below $67,000, and triggering over $250 million in leveraged liquidations, mostly affecting long positions.
  • Short-term momentum is bearish, with the $69,000–$71,000 range acting as key resistance and $72,000 needing a decisive breakout to shift momentum.
  • Failure to reclaim $69,000–$71,000 could push Bitcoin toward $64,000, with $60,000 as a critical psychological support where panic selling may intensify.

Current market scenario: Technical weakness builds

As of February 11, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading near $66,700 after breaking below $67,000 and triggering another flush of liquidations.

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Bitcoin price prediction ahead of U.S. jobs report: Volatility back in focus - 2
BTC 1-day chart, February 2026 | Source: crypto.news

Traders see this as a break on the daily chart. The two-week support that had absorbed recent dips is gone, and momentum in the short term is clearly bearish.

Spikes in liquidations often reflect forced selling, not a steady trend. Still, the lack of a strong bounce is raising concerns about broader weakness.

All eyes are on Wednesday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report at 8:30 a.m. ET. Delayed by last month’s brief federal shutdown, the data is expected to move markets. Some Trump administration officials have suggested the numbers might come in weaker than expected, which could fuel rate-cut bets and support risk assets — though volatility is likely before any clear trend emerges.

Key levels to watch

From a technical view, the battle zone is clearly $69,000–$71,000. But even if Bitcoin rallies into that range, it’s resistance until proven otherwise.

A meaningful shift in momentum requires a decisive breakout above $72,000, confirmed by a strong daily close. Without it, any rally could quickly fizzle and remain part of the larger corrective move.

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Failing to reclaim $69,000–$71,000 within 24 hours could open the door toward $64,000. Beneath that, the psychological $60,000 level comes into focus — an area where panic selling has historically intensified.

It’s a narrow window with high stakes. Bulls need to act fast. Bears are waiting patiently.

BTC price prediction: What comes next?

Macro catalysts are steering short-term moves. Should the jobs report fall short of expectations and risk appetite improve, Bitcoin price could climb toward resistance. But without decisively reclaiming $72,000, any rally risks fading quickly.

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Should selling continue and a $64,000 break, the market could accelerate toward $60,000, where long-term buyers may step in. That zone may ultimately decide whether the broader uptrend holds.

The near-term Bitcoin price prediction leans toward continued volatility. The market is perched at a technical crossroads, and macro data may spark the next big move.

For now, the Bitcoin outlook is cautiously neutral-to-bearish, though a decisive breakout above $72,000 could swing sentiment sharply back toward the bulls.

Traders should prepare for rapid price action, as sharp moves could come in either direction.

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U.S. BTC ETFs post first monthly inflows since October

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ETF AUM (CheckonChain)

U.S.listed spot bitcoin ETFs ended March with $1.32 billion in net inflows to record their first monthly inflows since October, SoSoValue data shows.

This follows four consecutive months of net outflows, which coincided with bitcoin declining by as much as 50% from its October all time high of $126,000.
November saw $3.5 billion in outflows, followed by $1.1 billion in December, $1.6 billion in January, and $206 million in February.

March also marked bitcoin’s first positive monthly candle in six months, suggesting a potential shift in momentum.

ETF assets under management have remained relatively resilient, however. Holdings declined from 1.38 million BTC in October to a low of 1.28 million BTC, a drop of roughly 7%, and have since recovered to around 1.31 million BTC, according to CheckonChain.

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ETF investors remain underwater on average, with an estimated cost basis near $84,000 compared to a current spot price of about $68,000.

ETF AUM (CheckonChain)
ETF AUM (CheckonChain)

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Galaxy Digital’s (GLXY) testnet suffers hack but no client funds or information were compromised

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Galaxy Digital's (GLXY) testnet suffers hack but no client funds or information were compromised

Galaxy Digital (GLXY), the digital asset financial services firm founded by Mike Novogratz, said it recently contained a cybersecurity incident involving unauthorized access to an isolated development workspace, according to a statement from a company spokesperson.

“An immaterial amount of company funds used for testing within the isolated development workspace was impacted,” the spokesperson said in emailed comments. The loss was less than $10,000, according to a person with knowledge of the matter.

The firm emphasized that the affected environment was used solely for research and development and was not connected to its core infrastructure, production systems, trading platforms or client accounts.

Galaxy said it detected the intrusion and moved quickly to contain it, secure the compromised workspace and implement additional precautionary measures across its on-chain infrastructure.

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“No client funds or client account information were accessed or at risk at any point based on our review to date,” Galaxy said, adding that all platforms and services remain fully operational and secure for clients.

Hacks and exploits remain a persistent risk in the crypto industry, where the combination of open-source code, large pools of onchain liquidity and uneven security practices creates an attractive target for attackers.

Billions of dollars are lost to smart contract exploits, phishing schemes and infrastructure breaches, with industry estimates often exceeding $1–2 billion annually in recent years.

Even when incidents are contained, and client assets are not impacted, breaches can erode trust, trigger heightened regulatory scrutiny and underscore the operational risks facing firms operating in largely irreversible, always-on financial systems.

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Galaxy is a diversified financial services and investment firm focused on the digital asset and blockchain sector, providing institutional clients with trading, asset management, lending, advisory and custody services.

The firm operates across several core business lines, including global markets, asset management and digital infrastructure, while also running businesses in areas like crypto mining, staking and data center operations.

Positioned as a bridge between traditional finance and crypto, Galaxy offers institutional-grade access to digital assets and related technologies, alongside investments in blockchain ventures and emerging areas such as AI-powered infrastructure.

The company said it is continuing to review the incident and will provide updates as appropriate.

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Read more: Bitcoin’s quantum threat is real, but far from an existential crisis, Galaxy says

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What Does it Mean for Bitcoin?

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What Does it Mean for Bitcoin?

Warren Buffett, the legendary investor and chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, revealed on CNBC this week that his firm purchased approximately $17 billion in US Treasury bills at the latest auction. Is a stock market crash coming and what does it mean for Bitcoin (BTC)?

Key takeaways:

  • Berkshire held $373 billion in cash or cash equivalents as of 2025’s close, more than double the levels in 2023.

  • The firm’s rising cash reserves typically precede major stock market crashes, a bad sign for Bitcoin.

Buffett still sees better value in cash than in stocks

Buffett’s message is straightforward: Berkshire does not see the recent equity pullback as a sufficiently attractive buying opportunity.

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For context, the S&P 500 has fallen about 5.75% since reaching a record high in January.

S&P 500 weekly performance chart. Source: TradingView

Buffett said stocks are not “substantially” cheaper after the decline and described the sell-off as “nothing” compared with earlier downturns in which markets fell more than 50%.

That helps explain Berkshire’s latest Treasury-bill purchase. The company ended 2025 with about $373 billion in cash and equivalents, up from a record $334.2 billion a year earlier and more than double its level at the end of 2023.

Buffett, who famously called Bitcoin “rat poison,” typically gets into cash before major stock crashes, historical data shows.

In 1998, for instance, Buffett began trimming Berkshire’s stock exposure and raising cash, pushing the company’s cash and cash-equivalents holdings to $13.1 billion, or about 23% of total assets.

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Berkshire’s cash and cash-equivalents holdings chart. Source: GuruFocus.COM

By mid-2000, that figure had climbed to nearly $15 billion, or roughly 25% of assets, before Berkshire started deploying capital into bargains as the Dot-com bubble burst.

Bitcoin’s positive correlation with stocks may hurt prices

Bitcoin has traded more like a stock than a traditional safe haven for much of the post-2020 period, often moving in the same direction as US equities, especially the tech-heavy Nasdaq.

As of Wednesday, the 20-week rolling correlation coefficient between the two markets was positive at 0.47.

Nasdaq Composite and BTC/USD’s 20-week correlation coefficient chart. Source: TradingView

If Buffett’s risk-off strategy is correct, then Bitcoin should see another crash alongside stocks. Fresh quantum-security concerns, war-driven inflation risks, and nearly 50% US recession odds are putting pressure on the BTC price.

Berkshire’s portfolio decisions have also leaned away from crypto-adjacent finance.

In the first quarter of 2025, the firm fully exited Nu Holdings, a crypto-friendly fintech company, after building its position in 2021 and 2022. It secured about $250 million in profits from these investments.

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Multiple analysts predict BTC’s price to drop to as low as $30,000 in 2026.