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Was The 40% Rally A Retail Trap?

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Bullish Structure

Uniswap price is up around 3% over the past 24 hours, trading near $3.40. But this small move hides what really happened on February 11. That day, UNI surged nearly 42% to a high near $4.57 after news linked Uniswap to BlackRock’s tokenized fund expansion.

Since then, sellers have erased about 26% of that rally. This raises a key question: was this institutional-driven breakout a real trend shift, or a trap for retail buyers?

Uniswap Price Breakout on February 11 Was Driven by Retail Momentum

The rally on February 11 did not happen randomly.

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On the 12-hour chart, Uniswap price had been forming a bullish setup since mid-January. Between January 19 and February 11, UNI made lower lows while the Relative Strength Index, or RSI, made higher lows. RSI measures momentum by tracking buying and selling strength. When price falls, but RSI rises, it signals a bullish divergence, often warning that selling pressure is weakening.

Bullish Structure
Bullish Structure: TradingView

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This divergence suggested that a rebound was building.

That signal was confirmed on February 11. On that day, On-Balance Volume, or OBV, broke above a long-term descending trendline. OBV tracks whether volume is flowing into or out of an asset. When OBV breaks upward, it usually shows growing retail participation. The timing was important.

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Retail Participation Behind The Rally
Retail Participation Behind The Rally: TradingView

RSI divergence had been in place for weeks. OBV only broke out on February 11, exactly when the BlackRock-linked news hit the market. This shows that retail traders reacted aggressively to the headline, rushing into UNI.

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With momentum and volume aligned, the Uniswap price surged to around $4.57 in a single session. But the structure of that candle raised early warning signs.

On the 12-hour chart, the breakout candle formed with a very long upper wick and a small body. This means buyers pushed the price higher, but sellers absorbed most of the move before the close. It was the first sign that a strong supply existed near $4.50. The rally looked powerful. But distribution had already started.

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Whale Selling Near $4.57 Explains the Sharp Rejection

The long wick on February 11 was not driven by random selling. Whale data shows who was responsible.

On that day, supply held by large Uniswap holders dropped sharply from about 648.46 million UNI to 642.51 million UNI. That is a reduction of roughly 5.95 million tokens. At prices near $4.57, this represents selling pressure worth about $27 million.

This was not profit-taking by small traders. It was a coordinated distribution by large wallets.

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Uniswap Whales In Action
Uniswap Whales In Action: Santiment

While retail buyers were chasing the breakout, whales were exiting into strength. This explains why the UNI price failed to hold above $4.50 and why the rally collapsed so quickly. Once large holders finished selling, buy-side momentum weakened. Without whale support, the market could not sustain elevated prices.

The result was a fast retracement. From the $4.57 peak, the Uniswap price fell about 26%. Most late buyers were possibly immediately pushed into losses. This confirms that the BlackRock-related surge became a liquidity event for large holders.

Retail provided the demand. Whales provided the supply.

4-Hour Chart Shows the Uniswap Price Rally Target Was Already Completed

The lower timeframe explains why the pullback started so quickly. On the 4-hour chart, Uniswap had been forming an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern inside a descending channel. This is a classic reversal structure that often signals a short-term breakout.

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On February 11, UNI broke above the neckline of this pattern and quickly reached its projected target near $4.57. In technical terms, the setup had already completed its measured move.

Uniswap Price Structure
Uniswap Price Structure: TradingView

At the same time, the 4-hour OBV divergence became clear. Between late January and February 11, UNI moved higher, but OBV continued trending lower. This shows that volume strength was weakening even as the price rose. This bearish OBV divergence warned that the breakout was not being supported by sustained retail demand. Plus, the OBV is currently trending down, showing retail offloading.

Retail traders focused on the price move. Whales focused on the structure. By the time most buyers entered, the rally was already mature. Now, price is drifting near $3.40 while volume continues to weaken. This suggests that speculative demand is fading.

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Uniswap Price Analysis
Uniswap Price Analysis: TradingView

If UNI holds above $3.21, the market may attempt consolidation. But this support is fragile because it is built on short-term buying, not long-term accumulation.

A breakdown below $3.21 would likely trigger another sell wave. In that case, the next major level sits near $2.80, which marks the head of the prior reversal pattern. A move to this zone would erase all of the BlackRock-driven gains.

To regain strength, Uniswap price must reclaim the $3.68 to $3.96 region. This area now acts as a major obstacle after the failed breakout. Only a sustained move above it would reopen upside toward $4.57.

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Crypto World

Why DOGE and XRP Holders Are Excited

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Why DOGE and XRP Holders Are Excited

As part of the strategy to turn X (formerly Twitter) into a “super app” or Everything App, a key missing piece, X Money, is beginning to take shape.

X aims to be more than a social media platform. Elon Musk wants to transform it into a personal finance game-changer. Users could handle messaging, shopping, and full personal asset management in one place.

Why Are Crypto Investors Excited About X Money?

During an xAI “All Hands” presentation in February 2026, Elon Musk revealed that X Money is already running in internal testing among X employees. A limited rollout to users is expected within the next one to two months.

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X Money has secured money transmitter licenses in more than 40 US states. It also established strategic partnerships with major payment giants such as Visa last year.

“For X Money, we actually had X Money live in closed beta within the company, and we expect in the next month or two to go to a limited external beta and then to go worldwide to all X users. And this is really intended to be the place where all the money is, the central source of all monetary transactions. So it’s really going to be a game-changer,” Elon Musk said.

Musk aims to push monthly active users past 600 million and ultimately reach 1 billion. Analysts compare this ambition to building an everything app similar to China’s WeChat.

As a result, X Money represents a major opportunity for any crypto project that accepts it as a payment method or is indirectly connected to the platform.

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However, X Money has never confirmed that crypto will be used as a payment option. Investors, meanwhile, continue to build their own narratives.

The first speculation centers on Dogecoin (DOGE). This meme coin closely aligns with Elon Musk’s personal brand. The theory stems from Musk’s past comments suggesting DOGE could be suitable for micropayments.

The second speculation involves XRP. This hypothesis is linked to Cross River Bank, a financial partner working with X to process payment flows. Since 2014, Cross River Bank has integrated Ripple’s protocol to enable real-time cross-border payments between the US and Western Europe.

Despite these narratives, DOGE and XRP prices showed no significant reaction to news of X Money’s upcoming launch.

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In the coming months, once X Money officially goes live as planned, its impact on crypto markets and the global financial system may become clearer.

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UK Launches Blockchain Digital Bond Pilot With HSBC Orion

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UK Launches Blockchain Digital Bond Pilot With HSBC Orion

The United Kingdom’s government has appointed HSBC’s tokenization platform to power a pilot issuance of digital government bonds, known as “gilts,” marking the latest step in its push to modernize sovereign debt markets using blockchain technology.

His Majesty’s Treasury has appointed HSBC Orion to facilitate the Digital Gilt Instrument (DIGIT) pilot issuance, according to a Thursday announcement.

The Treasury published a DIGIT pilot update in July 2025, outlining plans to explore blockchain applications in UK sovereign debt issuance and to support the development of domestic tokenization infrastructure.

“We want to attract investment and make the UK the best place to do business,” said Lucy Rigby, UK economic secretary to the Treasury, commenting on HSBC Orion’s DIGIT appointment. She added that the pilot will help the UK explore how to capitalize on the distributed ledger technology (DLT), enhance efficiency and reduce costs for businesses.

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Key objectives and features of the DIGIT pilot

The DIGIT pilot aims to enable digitally native, short-dated government bonds operating within the Digital Securities Sandbox (DSS).

The pilot is designed to support secondary market development and broader accessibility, with onchain settlement, while operating independently of the UK government’s main debt management program.

Source: Lucy Rigby

“This is exactly the kind of financial innovation we need to keep the UK at the forefront of global capital markets and I’m looking forward to working with HSBC and other parties to deliver DIGIT,” Rigby said.

HSBC has issued $3.5 billion in digital bonds globally

Since its launch in 2023, HSBC Orion has enabled the issuance of at least $3.5 billion in digitally native bonds globally, including the European Investment Bank’s first digital sterling bond and a multi-currency $1.3 billion-equivalent bond issued by the Hong Kong government.

“The UK is a home market for us and the sixth largest economy in the world,” said Patrick George, HSBC’s global head of markets and securities services. “HSBC is delighted to be supporting the continued development of the gilt market, market innovation, and the growth of the broader UK economy,” he added.

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HSBC Orion-facilitated digital bond issuance projects. Source: HSBC

Related: Malaysia’s central bank announces stablecoin, tokenization sandbox

Alongside appointing HSBC Orion as the platform provider for DIGIT, the UK government also appointed global law firm Ashurst to provide legal services for the pilot.

“Our team brings deep expertise in digital assets transactions, and we look forward to working with HSBC and supporting the government as it takes this transformative step for UK capital markets,” Ashurst’s head of digital assets, Etay Katz, said.

Magazine: How crypto laws changed in 2025 — and how they’ll change in 2026