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Was The 40% Rally A Retail Trap?

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Bullish Structure

Uniswap price is up around 3% over the past 24 hours, trading near $3.40. But this small move hides what really happened on February 11. That day, UNI surged nearly 42% to a high near $4.57 after news linked Uniswap to BlackRock’s tokenized fund expansion.

Since then, sellers have erased about 26% of that rally. This raises a key question: was this institutional-driven breakout a real trend shift, or a trap for retail buyers?

Uniswap Price Breakout on February 11 Was Driven by Retail Momentum

The rally on February 11 did not happen randomly.

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On the 12-hour chart, Uniswap price had been forming a bullish setup since mid-January. Between January 19 and February 11, UNI made lower lows while the Relative Strength Index, or RSI, made higher lows. RSI measures momentum by tracking buying and selling strength. When price falls, but RSI rises, it signals a bullish divergence, often warning that selling pressure is weakening.

Bullish Structure
Bullish Structure: TradingView

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This divergence suggested that a rebound was building.

That signal was confirmed on February 11. On that day, On-Balance Volume, or OBV, broke above a long-term descending trendline. OBV tracks whether volume is flowing into or out of an asset. When OBV breaks upward, it usually shows growing retail participation. The timing was important.

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Retail Participation Behind The Rally
Retail Participation Behind The Rally: TradingView

RSI divergence had been in place for weeks. OBV only broke out on February 11, exactly when the BlackRock-linked news hit the market. This shows that retail traders reacted aggressively to the headline, rushing into UNI.

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With momentum and volume aligned, the Uniswap price surged to around $4.57 in a single session. But the structure of that candle raised early warning signs.

On the 12-hour chart, the breakout candle formed with a very long upper wick and a small body. This means buyers pushed the price higher, but sellers absorbed most of the move before the close. It was the first sign that a strong supply existed near $4.50. The rally looked powerful. But distribution had already started.

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Whale Selling Near $4.57 Explains the Sharp Rejection

The long wick on February 11 was not driven by random selling. Whale data shows who was responsible.

On that day, supply held by large Uniswap holders dropped sharply from about 648.46 million UNI to 642.51 million UNI. That is a reduction of roughly 5.95 million tokens. At prices near $4.57, this represents selling pressure worth about $27 million.

This was not profit-taking by small traders. It was a coordinated distribution by large wallets.

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Uniswap Whales In Action
Uniswap Whales In Action: Santiment

While retail buyers were chasing the breakout, whales were exiting into strength. This explains why the UNI price failed to hold above $4.50 and why the rally collapsed so quickly. Once large holders finished selling, buy-side momentum weakened. Without whale support, the market could not sustain elevated prices.

The result was a fast retracement. From the $4.57 peak, the Uniswap price fell about 26%. Most late buyers were possibly immediately pushed into losses. This confirms that the BlackRock-related surge became a liquidity event for large holders.

Retail provided the demand. Whales provided the supply.

4-Hour Chart Shows the Uniswap Price Rally Target Was Already Completed

The lower timeframe explains why the pullback started so quickly. On the 4-hour chart, Uniswap had been forming an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern inside a descending channel. This is a classic reversal structure that often signals a short-term breakout.

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On February 11, UNI broke above the neckline of this pattern and quickly reached its projected target near $4.57. In technical terms, the setup had already completed its measured move.

Uniswap Price Structure
Uniswap Price Structure: TradingView

At the same time, the 4-hour OBV divergence became clear. Between late January and February 11, UNI moved higher, but OBV continued trending lower. This shows that volume strength was weakening even as the price rose. This bearish OBV divergence warned that the breakout was not being supported by sustained retail demand. Plus, the OBV is currently trending down, showing retail offloading.

Retail traders focused on the price move. Whales focused on the structure. By the time most buyers entered, the rally was already mature. Now, price is drifting near $3.40 while volume continues to weaken. This suggests that speculative demand is fading.

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Uniswap Price Analysis
Uniswap Price Analysis: TradingView

If UNI holds above $3.21, the market may attempt consolidation. But this support is fragile because it is built on short-term buying, not long-term accumulation.

A breakdown below $3.21 would likely trigger another sell wave. In that case, the next major level sits near $2.80, which marks the head of the prior reversal pattern. A move to this zone would erase all of the BlackRock-driven gains.

To regain strength, Uniswap price must reclaim the $3.68 to $3.96 region. This area now acts as a major obstacle after the failed breakout. Only a sustained move above it would reopen upside toward $4.57.

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Crypto World

Genius Group Dumps Bitcoin Treasury Amid Revenue Surge

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Genius Group Dumps Bitcoin Treasury Amid Revenue Surge

AI-powered Bitcoin treasury and education company Genius Group revealed on Tuesday that it sold the remainder of its Bitcoin in Q1 to pay off debt, adding to a recent wave of companies offloading assets amid a crypto bear market. 

“The company will recommence building its Bitcoin Treasury when it believes market conditions are more favorable,” it stated. 

The move appears to go against its “Bitcoin first” strategy, which it touted in November 2024, vowing at the time to commit 90% or more of its current and future reserves to be held in Bitcoin. 

Genius Group held 84 BTC worth around $5.7 million as of March 2026, but holdings have declined since April 2025, around the time it was temporarily barred by a US court from expanding its Bitcoin treasury. It resumed buying in June of that year.

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The recent announcement came as Genius Group reported strong results in Q1, with revenue up 171% year-on-year to $3.3 million and gross profit up 228% to $2 million. The company swung from a $500,000 operating loss in Q1 2025 to a $2.7 million net profit in Q1 2026.

Genius Group BTC holdings have now fallen to zero. Source: Bitcoin Treasuries

Bitcoin treasuries liquidating in 2026 

Genius Group is not the only Bitcoin-related company to offload assets in recent months. 

MARA Holdings sold 15,133 BTC for around $1.1 billion in March, dropping its treasury to 38,689 BTC and down to the third largest corporate Bitcoin treasury, behind Twenty One Capital. 

The proceeds were used to repurchase approximately $1 billion of convertible senior notes and the remainder for general corporate purposes. 

Related: Bhutan offloads another $37M in Bitcoin as sovereign wallet shrinks

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Meanwhile, mining company Bitdeer liquidated its entire stash of 943 BTC and sold newly mined coins, cutting corporate holdings to zero in February.

Other notable recent sales include Bitcoin miner Cango Inc., which sold 4,451 BTC, and AI tech firm GD Culture Group, confirming authorization of the sale of some of its 7,500 BTC treasury in February. 

Stalwart Strategy keeps on buying 

Michael Saylor’s Strategy, the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin treasury, has bucked the trend and has continued buying Bitcoin, dominating purchases this year.

“Strip out Strategy, and the rest of the ecosystem’s buying pace has collapsed,” reported BTC mining analytics outlet BitcoinMiningStock in March.

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The firm’s last purchase was 1,031 BTC on March 23, and it has accumulated 89,581 BTC worth around $6.1 billion at current market prices so far this year, according to the Saylor Tracker. 

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