Polymarket traders now put a 65% chance on WTI crude hitting $120 at some point in 2026, as Middle East tensions and supply fears drive a rapid repricing of oil risk.

Prediction platform Polymarket is currently assigning a 65% chance that WTI crude oil futures will trade at $120 per barrel at some point in 2026, with the market’s probability having climbed 25 percentage points in the past 24 hours and 10 points in the last hour. That repricing comes against a backdrop of WTI futures trading around $106 per barrel after a more than 6% daily move, as escalating Middle East tensions and fears of supply disruption outweigh the impact of scheduled OPEC+ production increases.

The specific market — “What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in April 2026?” — resolves on an intraday high rather than a closing level, using one-minute candles for the active month WTI futures contract. Under the rules, the market will resolve to “yes” if, at any point during the 2026 period, any one-minute candle for the active WTI month prints a high at or above $120; otherwise, it resolves “no,” with fallback to official daily highs from CME if oracle data is unavailable.

Polymarket’s earlier WTI contracts, including a “Will Crude Oil (CL) hit by end of March?” market, were tied to the official settlement price of the near-month futures on the last trading day of the period. In those structures, a “yes” outcome required the CME settlement price to be at or above the strike level on expiry, a stricter condition than a single intraday spike.

By contrast, the new $120 market pays out if WTI touches the threshold at any moment in the year, making it more sensitive to short-lived volatility and headline-driven spikes. That shift aligns the oil market with other Polymarket structures that key off one-minute candles, reflecting the platform’s move toward higher-frequency oracle data for commodities and macro assets.

The jump to a 65% implied probability that WTI will hit $120 mirrors a broader repricing of oil risk across prediction venues and derivatives. Analysis of crude oil markets shows that traders now see elevated odds of WTI breaking into triple digits and sustaining high volatility, with probabilities for $95 and $100 per barrel also rising alongside volume and open interest at higher strikes.

ChainCatcher reported that Polymarket plans to continue monitoring flows and adjusting odds as new information on supply, geopolitics, and demand comes in, underscoring how quickly real‑money prediction markets can react to macro shocks. For macro traders, the contract offers a clean way to express views on whether war risk and supply constraints will push WTI from today’s ~$106 area to $120 or beyond before 2026 is over.

Key Highlights

• SoFi unveiled Big Business Banking, an all-hours platform enabling enterprises to handle both traditional currency and stablecoins through a regulated banking institution.
• The offering provides continuous deposits, transfers, and settlements — a stark departure from conventional banks’ limited business hours.
• Central to the platform is SoFiUSD, a stablecoin with reserves maintained directly in SoFi’s federally chartered banking entity.
• Launch partners include major industry players: Bullish, BitGo, Galaxy Digital, Mastercard, Cumberland, and Wintermute.
• Year-to-date 2026, SOFI shares have declined approximately 40%, pressured by fintech sector headwinds and accusations from short-seller Muddy Waters Research.

SoFi Technologies has progressively expanded far beyond its original student loan business model — branching into credit products, consumer banking, investment services, and small business financing. Thursday’s announcement marks another strategic shift: corporate banking solutions designed for enterprises requiring continuous financial operations.

The newly introduced service, SoFi Big Business Banking, enables business customers to maintain traditional U.S. currency holdings, transform them into digital stablecoins, and execute transfers continuously — all through SoFi’s federally chartered banking institution.

Currently, enterprises involved in cryptocurrency operations typically navigate a fragmented ecosystem of service providers. One institution handles cash holdings, another manages stablecoins, while yet another provides custody solutions. Transferring capital between these entities often requires hours or even days. SoFi aims to unify these functions under a single infrastructure.

SoFi Technologies, Inc., SOFI

Chief Executive Anthony Noto articulated the rationale clearly in Thursday’s announcement: “To be competitive, businesses today must operate in a global, always-on environment 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, while legacy banks typically still operate 9 to 5, Monday to Friday.”

SoFiUSD Stablecoin Serves as Platform Foundation

The platform’s core component is SoFiUSD, a dollar-backed stablecoin that customers can mint and redeem directly within the banking environment. Distinguishing itself from numerous stablecoins issued beyond U.S. regulatory frameworks, SoFi’s offering connects directly to a supervised institutional balance sheet, maintaining backing reserves internally.

The infrastructure also leverages distributed ledger technology, including Solana, for transaction processing. Practically speaking, a financial services firm could deposit traditional currency, transform it into SoFiUSD, and allocate that capital to markets immediately — eliminating wire transfer settlement delays. The conversion reverses with equal efficiency.

Multiple prominent cryptocurrency enterprises have joined as initial partners. Bullish, BitGo, Galaxy Digital (GLXY), Mastercard (MA), Cumberland, and Wintermute are anticipated to utilize the infrastructure for transaction movement and settlement. These organizations specialize in trading operations, liquidity provision, and asset safekeeping — precisely the type of enterprises requiring rapid, continuous capital movement.

This introduction follows several cryptocurrency-focused initiatives from SoFi. The organization revealed blockchain-enabled remittance services in August 2025 and introduced SoFiUSD in December 2025. It also established a small business financing marketplace in 2024.

SOFI Shares Continue 2026 Decline

Despite Thursday’s announcement, market response proved subdued — and unfavorable. SOFI shares decreased approximately 2.4% during early market activity, having already weakened throughout pre-market hours.

Heading into Thursday, the equity had already depreciated roughly 40% year-to-date. Two primary factors have driven the decline: challenging market conditions affecting fintech companies generally, and a continuing controversy with short-seller Muddy Waters Research, which released allegations regarding accounting practices earlier in 2026.

SoFi dismissed those assertions as “factually inaccurate and misleading” and indicated it was evaluating potential legal recourse against Muddy Waters.

As of Thursday’s early trading activity, SOFI was trading near price levels reached following the Muddy Waters publication — with the Big Business Banking debut failing to arrest the downward momentum thus far.

Bitcoin (BTC) gained a $10,000 price warning as stocks took a fresh hit over oil-supply fears at Thursday’s Wall Street open.

Key points:

• $10,000 BTC prices may return as the market struggles to hold ground, says new analysis.

• Bitcoin and US stocks take a further beating as markets discount the odds of the Strait of Hormuz returning to “normal.”

• Oil spikes to $114 per barrel in a volatile Wall Street open.

BTC price “may be reverting” to $10,000

Data from TradingView tracked BTC price action as it dipped below $66,000 to reach week-to-date lows.

Bitcoin continued to field warnings from market participants over short-term and long-term price performance.

In his latest analysis, Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, even saw $10,000 coming back into play for BTC/USD.

“Before the biggest money pump in history in 2020-21, Bitcoin hovered around $10,000, and it may be reverting,” he wrote in a summary on X. 

McGlone argued that $10,000 had particular importance as the point at which Bitcoin futures markets first began trading almost a decade ago.

Data from CoinGlass meanwhile put 24-hour crypto liquidations at over $400 million on Thursday.

Oil surges over supply woes as Bitcoin falls

US equities came under considerable pressure at the open, with the Nasdaq Composite Index down by more than 2% at the time of writing.

Related: US recession odds near 50%: Can Bitcoin copy 2020 comeback gains?

Gold found cause for a modest rebound after its own comedown earlier, with oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz in the spotlight. WTI crude spiked to $114 per barrel as the US session began.

Reacting, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter said that US inflation could hit 3.6% if prices sustained for two months.

“This would put US inflation at its highest level since September 2023,” it wrote on X.

Prediction platform Kalshi showed declining odds of oil traffic reverting to “normal” levels this year.

The volatility came as markets returned following an address to the nation by US President Donald Trump. As Cointelegraph reported, markets were disappointed by the event as Trump avoided key deescalation promises.

Kobeissi founder Adam Kobeissi called the address the “most puzzling part of the Iran War yet.”

“It began with Iran’s President stating they have “no enmity” towards Americans and ended with President Trump escalating the Iran War, the exact opposite of what we have seen over the last 2 weeks from both sides,” he told X followers. 

“It simply does not add up.”