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XRP price hinges on Senate CLARITY Act in April

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130k jobs in January, but there were massive revisions

The XRP price CLARITY Act connection has never been tighter: with the Senate Banking Committee targeting a late April markup and Senator Bernie Moreno warning that failure to pass by May effectively kills the bill for 2026, the next three weeks in Washington are the most consequential period XRP has faced this year.

Summary

  • The Senate returns from Easter recess on April 13 with a CLARITY Act Banking Committee markup targeted for the second half of the month; if the bill does not reach the Senate floor by May, Senator Moreno warns it will not move again before the 2026 midterms
  • If the CLARITY Act advances through committee, analysts project $4 to $8 billion in additional XRP ETF inflows, which could push XRP above $1.60 and toward its prior highs; if the bill stalls, XRP risks falling below $1.20 and potentially toward $0.82 if Bitcoin simultaneously breaks $60,000
  • XRP posted its worst quarter in eight years in Q1 2026, falling 27% despite a string of regulatory wins including SEC/CFTC commodity classification and $1.44 billion in ETF inflows since last year’s launches

The XRP (XRP) price CLARITY Act deadline is now a matter of weeks, not months. XRP is trading around $1.34 on April 6, up 2.2% on ceasefire-related risk-on sentiment, but still down more than 63% from its July 2025 peak of $3.65. According to 24/7 Wall St., Q1 2026 was XRP’s worst quarter in eight years, with its market cap shrinking by nearly $29 billion despite the SEC and CFTC jointly classifying XRP as a digital commodity on March 17.

The problem, analysts argue, is that regulatory clarity alone is not enough. Banks and large asset managers need the CLARITY Act to become federal law before they will commit capital at scale, because the current commodity classification is an interpretive release rather than legislation, and a future administration could reverse it.

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The Senate returns from Easter recess on April 13. The Banking Committee markup is targeted for the second half of April. That is the window. As crypto.news reported, the long-running stablecoin yield dispute between banks and crypto firms appears to be entering its endgame, with Senators Tillis and Alsobrooks having reached a compromise in principle on March 20 that bans passive yield on stablecoin balances but permits activity-based rewards tied to payments and platform use.

Polymarket currently gives the CLARITY Act roughly a 63 to 66% probability of being signed into law in 2026. But Senator Moreno has stated publicly that if the bill does not reach the full Senate floor by May, midterm election dynamics will push it off the calendar for the rest of the year. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has already pushed his own expected passage timeline from end of April to end of May.

The Bullish Scenario: $1.60 and Beyond

If the Senate Banking Committee advances the bill in late April, analysts project the development would unlock $4 to $8 billion in additional XRP ETF inflows, according to Standard Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick. Seven US spot XRP ETFs already pulled in $1.44 billion since launching between September and December 2025 without the CLARITY Act as law. With it, the institutional capital currently on the sidelines would have permanent legal cover. That scale of inflows would lock hundreds of millions of XRP tokens in custody, tightening circulating supply and, according to the 24/7 Wall St. analysis, providing the momentum needed to push XRP above $1.60 and potentially toward its prior cycle high.

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The Bearish Scenario: Below $1.20

As crypto.news noted, the CLARITY Act enters the Senate Banking Committee with broad support but a narrowing clock and almost no room for further substantive revision. If the bill stalls past May, Standard Chartered’s 2026 XRP price target falls to $2.80 at best, the forecast already cut from $8 when delays first materialized. Without the bill, XRP would likely follow Bitcoin’s direction in a market where BTC is currently range-bound between $65,000 and $73,000 with the Fed holding rates through at least December. A stall combined with Bitcoin breaking below $60,000 could see XRP drop toward $0.82, according to the 24/7 Wall St. analysis.

“April is the narrowest window XRP has had for that to change,” 24/7 Wall St. wrote. “If the CLARITY Act advances through the Banking Committee before May, Q2 starts with something Q1 never had.”

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Crypto World

Solana Foundation Launches STRIDE Security Program

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Solana Foundation Launches STRIDE Security Program

The Solana Foundation on Monday announced a new security auditing framework for Solana-based protocols in addition to an incident-response network, warning that “adversaries are rapidly innovating.”

The Solana Foundation, a Swiss organization that supports the adoption and security of Solana, and Web3 security firm Asymmetric Research unveiled the Solana Trust, Resilience and Infrastructure for DeFi Enterprises (STRIDE), stating that it was a “structured program for evaluating, monitoring and escalating security across Solana projects.”

The initiative works to evaluate the security of protocols across eight pillars: program security, governance and access control, oracle and dependency risk, infrastructure security, supply chain security, operational security, monitoring and incident response, as well as log management and forensics. 

Protocols are independently assessed against these requirements, with findings published publicly, said Asymmetric Research. “This gives users, investors, and the broader ecosystem real transparency into the security posture of the protocols they interact with.”

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The announcement comes just a week after one of the largest DeFi exploits this year, with the Drift Protocol losing around $280 million following a social engineering attack from North Korean-linked threat actors

STRIDE’s eight pillars of security. Source: Asymmetric Research

Solana Incident Response Network

The Solana Foundation also announced the Solana Incident Response Network (SIRN), a network of security firms for real-time incident response across the Solana ecosystem. 

“Members will share threat intelligence, coordinate responses to active incidents, and contribute to the ongoing evolution of the STRIDE framework,” it stated. 

Related: Crypto hackers steal $169M from 34 DeFi protocols in Q1: DefiLlama

The foundation did not mention artificial-intelligence agents directly, but the announcement comes at a time when they are becoming an increasing threat to crypto protocols. 

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In January, $40 million was drained from the Solana DeFi platform Step Finance, with AI agents amplifying the damage by executing large transfers autonomously, KuCoin reported last week. 

Attackers hit 34 DeFi protocols in Q1

Malicious actors stole over $168 million in cryptocurrency from 34 DeFi protocols in the first quarter of 2026, according to data from DefiLlama. 

However, the figure has fallen significantly from the same period last year, when $1.58 billion was pilfered in Q1, 2025.

The largest exploit for the period was the private key compromise of Step Finance. 

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