India has opened an investigation after reports alleged that Indian nationals were trafficked into Myanmar and forced to carry out crypto fraud operations inside cyber scam compounds.

According to police in the western Indian state of Maharashtra, authorities have registered a criminal case after the wife of a 24-year-old man reported that her husband had been taken to a cyber scam compound near the Thailand-Myanmar border instead of the job he had accepted in Bangkok. Because the case involves an overseas trafficking network, India’s Ministry of External Affairs has been informed, while central agencies are assisting the investigation.

Police said the victim responded to a social media advertisement offering a graphic design and data entry job in Thailand with a monthly salary of Rs 70,000 (about $815) before travelling there in early June.

Investigators alleged that after arriving in Thailand, he was moved to a compound near the Myanmar border, where his passport and travel documents were confiscated.

Reports link victims to forced crypto scams

According to police, the victim managed to contact his family before losing communication and alleged that captives were forced to work 16-18 hours a day in cyber fraud operations, while those refusing orders faced electric shocks and other abuse.

Police also said he claimed that hundreds of Indians were being held in similar compounds, although those allegations have not been independently verified.

Meanwhile, regional outlets reported another case involving a Maharashtra resident who allegedly remains trapped in a similar compound after travelling to Thailand for what was advertised as a call centre job offering pay similar to the earlier job advertisement.

According to the reports, victims said they were later taken into Myanmar and forced to run online investment and cryptocurrency scams, including creating fake social media profiles to lure people into fraudulent investment schemes.

One family also alleged that captors demanded Rs 8 lakh (about $9,300) to secure their relative’s release, while state authorities said efforts to bring those trapped home are underway.

The reports have added to concerns over organised criminal networks operating from Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos and neighbouring countries. According to the reports, these groups allegedly recruit people through fake overseas job advertisements for positions in IT, customer support, digital marketing and data entry before confiscating their passports and forcing them into online fraud operations after they arrive in Southeast Asia.

International action targets scam networks

The latest allegations come as governments increase action against cyber scam networks in the region. As previously reported by crypto.news, the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control sanctioned a Myanmar militia, its leader and senior members in May over allegations that they facilitated cyber scam syndicates, cryptocurrency-related fraud, human trafficking and cross-border smuggling.

According to the Treasury Department, U.S. victims lost more than $2 billion to cryptocurrency-related fraud in 2022 and more than $3.5 billion in 2023.

Meanwhile, Myanmar’s military published a draft Anti-Online Scam Bill in May proposing prison terms ranging from 10 years to life for people convicted of operating online scam centres or committing digital currency fraud.

The draft legislation also allows capital punishment for operators who use violence, torture, unlawful detention or cruel treatment to force people into carrying out online scams.

The FBI has separately reported that cryptocurrency-related fraud caused $11.4 billion in losses in its latest Internet Crime Report, with more than half of all internet crime losses linked to crypto schemes. The agency said many of the networks behind those frauds operate from compounds across Southeast Asia.

India has conducted rescue operations in similar cases before. Earlier this year, more than 120 Indian nationals were repatriated from cyber scam centres in Myanmar, following additional rescue efforts carried out during the previous year.

Strategy, the corporate vehicle behind Michael Saylor’s long-running “Bitcoin treasury” approach, has moved further into real-world capital management. The company authorized up to $1.25 billion in Bitcoin sales under a newly defined capital framework—an acknowledgment that even highly committed holders must plan for liquidity, shareholder payouts, and balance-sheet flexibility.

Meanwhile, the crypto industry’s business priorities are widening beyond price narratives: a new coalition is pushing a US dollar stablecoin designed to capture reserve yield, Fidelity is defending Bitcoin’s security model post-halving, and political spending is ramping up ahead of the 2026 US midterms.

Key takeaways

• Strategy authorized up to $1.25 billion in Bitcoin sales to support dividends, cash reserves, and repurchases while maintaining its long-term Bitcoin exposure.
• Strategy raised its STRC preferred dividend rate to 12% and says it has built a dedicated cash reserve of $2.55 billion to cover about 17 months of payments.
• A group of over 140 firms—including Visa, Mastercard, Coinbase, Ripple, OKX, and Bybit—plans an “Open USD” stablecoin that is structured to return reserve earnings to users.
• Fidelity argues Bitcoin’s security is not solely dependent on block subsidies, citing higher daily miner revenue over time.
• Public Citizen reports crypto-linked political spending totaled about $189 million in the 2026 election cycle, with PACs again central to the industry’s influence.

Strategy formalizes Bitcoin monetization and funding priorities

Strategy has adopted a new capital plan that explicitly authorizes Bitcoin sales of up to $1.25 billion. According to Cointelegraph’s reporting, the “Digital Credit Capital Framework” is intended to fund shareholder dividends, reinforce cash reserves, and support stock repurchases while still aiming to preserve the company’s long-term Bitcoin strategy.

Under the framework, the annual dividend on Strategy’s STRC preferred stock rises from 11.5% to 12%. The plan also introduces a structured Bitcoin monetization program and expands capital-return mechanisms that include buybacks of preferred securities and MSTR shares.

Strategy also disclosed that its dedicated cash reserve has grown to $2.55 billion. The company says this level is sufficient to cover roughly 17 months of preferred dividends and interest payments, effectively reducing the need to sell Bitcoin on short notice.

Crucially for investors watching Strategy’s “never sell” messaging, the framework marks a shift from pure accumulation rhetoric to a defined approach for generating liquidity. Strategy previously disclosed its first-ever Bitcoin sale, including the offload of 32 BTC in June, and Cointelegraph notes that the company did not purchase Bitcoin in the prior week referenced in the article.

Strategy’s holdings were reported as unchanged at 847,363 BTC, indicating the recent change is about authorization and planning rather than immediate acceleration of liquidation.

Stablecoin competition heats up with reserve-yield design

The next phase of stablecoin competition appears to be less about simply pegging to the dollar and more about who captures the yield generated by reserves. More than 140 financial and crypto companies have joined to launch a new US dollar-backed stablecoin that is designed to let participants retain the yield from reserves.

Cointelegraph reports the project—Open USD (OUSD)—is backed by major payments players including Visa and Mastercard, as well as crypto firms such as Coinbase, Ripple, OKX, and Bybit. The coalition’s structure differentiates OUSD from traditional stablecoin models: supporters say businesses will be able to mint tokens without fees or volume limits while keeping the reserve earnings.

That model is positioned as a competitive alternative to incumbent issuers, specifically Tether’s USDt (USDT) and Circle’s USDC. If it performs as intended, the ability to keep reserve yield could reduce the effective cost of using stablecoins for businesses and encourage greater adoption—especially in payment and settlement workflows where stablecoin balances function like working capital.

Timing also matters. According to Cointelegraph, Open Standard plans to roll out OUSD later this year. The push arrives as US policy has moved in a more favorable direction following passage of the GENIUS Act, which Cointelegraph links as a key development in stablecoin regulation.

With the article citing a market already worth more than $300 billion and analysts expecting further growth through the rest of the decade, OUSD’s success will likely depend on execution—particularly around reserve management transparency, minting/burning mechanics, and the practical user experience for businesses seeking reserve yield.

Fidelity challenges the “halving weakens security” narrative

Bitcoin’s halving cycle tends to reignite a long-running debate: if block subsidies decline, do miners eventually lose enough economic incentive to keep the network secure? Fidelity Digital Assets is pushing back against that conclusion.

In a research report highlighted by Cointelegraph, Fidelity argues that Bitcoin’s long-term security is not dependent solely on block subsidies. The firm’s framing suggests that other incentives—such as transaction fees, broader market dynamics, and price appreciation—can sustain miner participation even as issuance declines.

Cointelegraph’s summary points to Fidelity research analyst Daniel Gray, who noted a sharp change in the scale of miner revenue over time. Fidelity claims that average daily miner revenue grew from $1.3 million during 2012–2016 to $40.2 million today, despite declining block rewards. The underlying message is that miner economics have evolved beyond the subsidy component.

The report lands as miners face additional pressure following the latest halving. As Cointelegraph notes, many publicly traded mining companies have sought diversification—pivoting into areas such as AI and high-performance computing—while Fidelity maintains that these shifts don’t undermine Bitcoin’s long-term security assumptions.

For readers, the practical question is what happens if transaction fee demand fails to offset subsidy declines. Fidelity’s argument addresses incentive structure, but the real test will come from observing miner revenue composition over time: how much comes from fees versus price-driven valuation, and whether that remains sufficient to sustain hashrate participation through future cycles.

Crypto political spending climbs ahead of 2026 midterms

The business side of crypto is also increasingly visible in US politics. According to a new report by consumer advocacy group Public Citizen, crypto companies have contributed roughly $189 million to the 2026 election cycle so far—estimated at 37% of all corporate political spending during the period covered.

Cointelegraph reports that political action committees are again the main vehicle for the industry’s influence. Fairshake has spent more than $82 million this cycle, while the pro-Trump MAGA Inc. Super PAC—heavily backed by Crypto.com—has spent more than $56 million.

Public Citizen also said the strategy mirrors 2024 tactics by backing candidates from both major parties who align with the industry’s policy agenda. It further notes that crypto spending has already surpassed the roughly $170 million deployed during the 2024 election cycle, even with more than four months remaining before November’s elections.

For market participants, political spending is not just a headline metric. It can shape how regulators define stablecoins, exchange operations, custody standards, and market surveillance expectations—areas that directly affect compliance costs and product design.

What to watch next

Over the coming weeks, investors and builders should track three closely related developments: whether Strategy’s authorized Bitcoin sales translate into actual, more frequent monetization—or remain primarily a liquidity backstop; how OUSD’s reserve-yield mechanics perform against USDT and USDC in real usage; and whether Fidelity’s security thesis holds up in miner economics as fees and market incentives evolve through subsequent halving periods.

TLDR;

• US Stock market rally became Trump’s main economic message as he linked gains in the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow to tax cuts and investment.
• Bitcoin’s move near $62,000 showed how weaker jobs data and lower rate fears can quickly support risk assets after heavy volatility.
• The Trump economy narrative now connects traditional markets with crypto market sentiment, especially as traders watch Fed policy signals.
• Policy risk still matters as the CLARITY Act, tariff talks and AI-linked earnings could shape market direction through the second half of 2026.

Donald Trump framed the US Stock market rally as evidence that his economic agenda is gaining traction. He said stronger markets, tax cuts, exports and private investment showed the economy had entered a new growth phase. The comments landed as risk assets also improved. 

Bitcoin traded near $62,444, while Ethereum was around $1,624.95 and XRP traded close to $1.059 at last check. The move followed a volatile second quarter, with traders now linking equities, crypto market sentiment and Federal Reserve expectations more closely. It also put Trump’s economic message back at the center of market debate.

US Stock Market Rally Gives Trump A Golden Age Message

Trump said the US Stock market rally had delivered the strongest quarter for major indexes since his previous presidency. He pointed to gains in the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones Industrial Average. He also said stronger 401(k) balances were helping households feel the impact of the market rebound. 

Market data gives that claim a strong backdrop. According to market data, the S&P 500 gained 14.9% in the second quarter, while the Nasdaq climbed 21.4%. The Dow rose about 13%, marking its biggest quarterly jump since 2022. MarketWatch data shows Dow ended the first half with its strongest performance since 2021. 

Trump tied the Trump economy message to tax cuts for working families, rising exports and a smaller trade gap. He also said trillions of dollars in announced investment were supporting factories, jobs and domestic production. His “Golden Age” framing came as the U.S. prepared to mark its 250th Independence Day.

The US Stock market rally also reflected optimism around earnings and economic growth. Technology and semiconductor shares helped drive the second-quarter advance. Still, the rally has carried valuation concerns, especially as artificial intelligence spending shapes investor expectations across Wall Street.

US Stock Market Rally Links Rates, Crypto and Policy Risk

The US Stock market rally received another lift after softer jobs data reduced near-term rate fears. According to reports, the U.S. economy added 57,000 jobs in June, below the 110,000 estimate. Rate-hike expectations for September then fell to 55% from 64.1%, according to CME FedWatch.

That shift also supported the crypto market. Lower borrowing costs usually help risk assets, as traders seek higher-return areas when liquidity expectations improve. Bitcoin’s rebound near $62,000 showed how quickly macro signals can spill into digital assets after a sharp selloff.

A reported 76% correlation between Bitcoin and gold has also kept the hedge debate active. Some investors view both assets as protection against policy uncertainty and inflation risk. Yet Bitcoin still trades with higher volatility than gold, making the comparison useful but limited.

Policy is another driver. Congress is still debating digital asset rules through the CLARITY Act, while institutional crypto adoption expands. The Trump administration has also signaled a friendlier regulatory stance toward the sector. For traders, the next tests include Fed decisions, tariff talks and earnings from AI-linked companies.

Germany’s cooperative banking network has begun offering cryptocurrency trading through DZ Bank, opening digital asset access to millions of retail customers across the country.

According to a Bloomberg report, the rollout gives customers of participating cooperative banks the ability to buy and sell cryptocurrencies directly through their existing banking relationships rather than using dedicated crypto exchanges.

The service is already being introduced through a platform developed by DZ Bank and currently supports cryptocurrencies including Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and Cardano.

The expansion comes as Germany’s banking sector gradually changes its stance on digital assets after years of avoiding retail crypto services because of concerns over market volatility and investor protection. Instead of remaining on the sidelines, cooperative banks are now integrating crypto trading into their existing banking platforms, with each member institution deciding independently whether to make the service available.

Why are German banks expanding crypto services?

Representatives from DZ Bank told Bloomberg that interest from member institutions has been strong, with hundreds of cooperative banks expected to introduce cryptocurrency trading over time. While participation remains optional, the report said the level of demand suggests the service could become available across a large part of Germany’s cooperative banking network.

Elsewhere in the sector, DekaBank is preparing a comparable crypto trading platform for Germany’s savings banks. According to Bloomberg, the launch is scheduled for later this year and will be introduced in stages as individual savings banks choose whether to participate.

Supporters of the banking-led approach argue that customers may feel more comfortable buying digital assets through financial institutions they already use for everyday banking. Bloomberg cited survey data showing German consumers trust their primary bank more than twice as much as dedicated cryptocurrency trading platforms.

Banks also see digital assets as a way to appeal to younger customers who increasingly expect investment products to be available through digital banking applications. Offering crypto trading alongside traditional financial services could help lenders compete as cryptocurrencies become more common in mainstream finance, according to the report.

What challenges still face Germany’s crypto market?

Despite the growing availability of crypto trading through banks, critics continue to warn about the risks associated with digital assets. Bloomberg reported that academics and banking industry groups have maintained that cryptocurrencies remain highly speculative investments capable of generating substantial losses.

Germany’s savings banks association has also emphasized that crypto trading is intended only for self-directed customers who understand the risks involved and can make their own investment decisions without advisory services.

The banking expansion comes as Germany considers changes to its tax treatment of digital assets. As crypto.news reported earlier, Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil said during the presentation of Germany’s 2027 federal budget on April 29 that the government plans to “tax cryptocurrencies differently” as part of measures expected to raise an additional €2 billion, or about $2.3 billion, while strengthening efforts against financial and tax crime.

Under Germany’s current tax rules, profits from private cryptocurrency sales are generally taxed when assets are sold within one year of purchase. Crypto.news previously reported that digital assets held for more than 12 months are usually exempt from capital gains tax, a policy that has long made Germany one of Europe’s more attractive jurisdictions for long-term cryptocurrency investors.

TLDR;

• XRP price prediction now depends on whether bulls can defend the $1.13 area and push the token through the $1.28 to $1.29 neckline.
• XRP has formed two major lows near $1.05 and $1.0092, with weaker selling volume on the second drop suggesting pressure may be fading.
• CoinGlass data shows XRP futures volume above $2 billion and open interest near $2.54 billion, keeping volatility risk high.
• XRP-linked ETFs added $59.4 million in June, while the Clarity Act debate still shapes sentiment around crypto market rules.

XRP price prediction has moved back into focus after the token reclaimed the $1.13 area and tested early signs of a bullish reversal. XRP is trading near $1.145, up by 4% over 24 hours, with spot volume near $477.5 million and futures volume above $2.19 billion. Open interest stood around $2.54 billion, showing traders still hold large leveraged positions.

The rebound comes after months of pressure across the XRP price chart. Buyers now need a clear move above the $1.29 neckline to confirm the developing double bottom. Without that breakout, the current bounce still sits inside a wider bearish structure.

XRP Price Prediction Turns on $1.29 Neckline Breakout

XRP first lost the $1.28 to $1.30 support zone in late May. That move pushed the token toward $1.05 in early June, where sellers drove heavy volume. The first drop came with stronger trading activity, showing aggressive exits.

The second low came on June 26, when XRP touched $1.0092. This low moved slightly under the first bottom, which can mark a bear trap. Sellers broke support, yet they failed to hold price under that level.

Volume also gives the pattern more weight. The second drop came with lower selling volume than the early June move. That shift often suggests sellers are losing control, even as price prints a lower low.

The XRP price prediction now centers on the neckline at $1.28 to $1.29. A daily close above that range would confirm the double bottom and open a possible move toward $1.57. That target comes from adding the pattern depth to the neckline.

Before that, XRP faces resistance near $1.17 and $1.18. The 44-day moving average sits in this zone, while Fibonacci data also points to selling pressure nearby. Holder data shows large XRP clusters between $1.18 and $1.22, which may slow any rally.

ETF Flows and Clarity Act Keep XRP Price in Focus

XRP price prediction also depends on whether fund flows keep supporting the market. XRP-linked ETFs added $59.4 million in June, marking a third straight month of inflows, according to SoSoValue data.

Those flows stand out as Bitcoin and Ether funds faced heavier pressure. ETF demand can reduce available supply over time, especially when exchange outflows rise. Still, daily inflows alone rarely move price unless broader market sentiment improves.

Regulation adds another layer to the setup. The Major County Sheriffs of America shifted its stance on the Clarity Act to neutral after concerns around Section 604 were partly addressed. Section 604 relates to protections for non-custodial developers under the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act.

The group still wants changes tied to state and local law enforcement resources. That keeps the bill in focus for crypto traders, as market structure rules can affect long-term XRP sentiment.

For now, support sits near $1.00 to $1.13. Resistance stands at $1.40, followed by $1.88 if buyers clear the neckline first. Weekly chart projections point to higher zones near $3.27, $8.17, and $17.16, but those levels need a sustained breakout above recent highs.

Bitcoin billionaire investor Tim Draper has pushed back against blockchain analytics claims that he moved a large amount of BTC to Coinbase Prime. Draper told Cointelegraph, “Haven’t touched my BTC,” adding that he still expects Bitcoin to reach $250,000 within one year.

The denial follows a report from Lookonchain that a wallet “possibly linked” to Draper sent 1,000 BTC—valued at roughly $62 million at the time of reporting—into Coinbase Prime, based on address data traced using Arkham. The episode underscores how quickly on-chain intelligence can surface high-profile wallet activity, while also highlighting the difficulty of proving wallet ownership with certainty.

Key takeaways

• Tim Draper denied involvement after Lookonchain and Arkham-linked attribution pointed to a wallet “possibly linked” to him sending 1,000 BTC to Coinbase Prime.
• Arkham’s AI entity prediction labels wallet ownership with confidence levels, meaning attribution may be probabilistic rather than definitive.
• The highlighted transfers show repeated interaction between a wallet and Coinbase Prime over the past year, including a 1,000 BTC movement reported as occurring on July 9, 2025.
• Draper reiterated a $250,000 Bitcoin target, despite a multi-year history of price-timeline forecasts missing earlier deadlines.

Analytics flags a possible Draper-linked transfer

Lookonchain’s Friday report drew attention to a transfer of 1,000 BTC into Coinbase Prime, describing the source wallet as “possibly linked” to Tim Draper. The claim relied on Arkham’s wallet labeling and on-chain tracing, with Arkham presenting the address attribution using its AI-powered “entity prediction” capability.

Arkham’s interface notes that it assigns varying levels of confidence to attributions, effectively treating some wallet-to-person links as hypotheses rather than confirmed identities. That distinction matters for investors and market observers because large transfers often attract immediate speculation, yet wallet ownership can be ambiguous when based on probabilistic clustering or pattern matching.

Cointelegraph reported that it reached out to Arkham for comment but had not received a response by the time of publication.

Why wallet attribution remains hard to verify

In this case, Arkham labels the wallet involved in the transfer as “Tim Draper?” using entity prediction. Arkham’s approach is designed to help users investigate possible ownership, but it also means that even high-profile attributions may not amount to direct evidence.

The wallet’s transaction history, as referenced in the report, shows multiple interactions with Coinbase Prime, including a 1,000 BTC transfer from Coinbase Prime on July 9, 2025. That timing adds to the plausibility of the analytics narrative—yet it still does not remove the core uncertainty: on-chain data can show who moved coins, but it cannot always confirm who ultimately controls them, especially when custody practices, exchange flows, and address management strategies are involved.

Draper’s public rebuttal—“Haven’t touched my BTC”—therefore shifts the story from purely technical analysis back toward the human verification problem. For traders, the practical takeaway is that attribution-driven headlines can move sentiment even when ownership is not independently confirmed.

Draper’s BTC history and the persistence of a $250,000 target

Draper is a long-time Bitcoin bull and has been closely associated with an early, high-visibility purchase. According to Reuters, he won a US Marshals Service auction in 2014 for nearly 30,000 Bitcoin seized from holdings tied to the Silk Road. Forbes reported that Draper paid about $18.7 million—roughly $632 per BTC—for the assets, which were later described as worth around $1.9 billion.

Even as he remains outspoken, Draper’s price forecast has been consistent for years. The $250,000 target is reported as being held since at least 2018, when Draper initially expected Bitcoin to reach that level by late 2022 or early 2023. Cointelegraph notes that Bitcoin’s all-time high to date has not matched that timeline, citing a peak price recorded by CoinGecko of $126,080 on Oct. 6, 2025. At the time of reporting, Bitcoin was trading around $62,530.

The gap between long-dated price targets and realized market timing is not unusual for speculative forecasts, but it does affect how investors should interpret future statements. A target can stay the same while the path—and the timeframe—changes materially, meaning believers should evaluate not just the end number, but the assumptions behind it.

What other market voices are saying

While Draper’s comments and the analytics controversy played out, other notable voices continued to debate Bitcoin’s ceiling. Cointelegraph cited Blockstream CEO Adam Back, who expects Bitcoin could eventually reach between $500,000 and $1 million, arguing that such milestones may be closer than many assume.

Institutional and critical perspectives also remained in the conversation. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink has previously stated that Bitcoin could climb as high as $700,000 if institutional adoption increases significantly. On the other side, Bitcoin critic Peter Schiff has argued that the asset lacks intrinsic value and could ultimately fall to zero.

Meanwhile, retail sentiment instruments reflected more grounded expectations in the near term. Polymarket’s “What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?” prediction market showed traders pricing the most likely range around $65,000 to $70,000, with bets clustering near $68,000. These market-implied outcomes offer a different lens than celebrity targets: rather than a single endgame number, the odds reflect how participants weigh scenarios for a specific calendar period.

Going forward, readers should watch for two things: whether any follow-up analysis clarifies the attribution confidence around the implicated wallet, and how Draper’s reiterated $250,000 timeline evolves as Bitcoin’s price discovery continues. In cases like this, the on-chain story may change quickly as new traceability and ownership evidence emerges—even when the underlying question remains the same: who controls the keys?

CryptoQuant has reported that Bitcoin’s realized profit and loss ratio has dropped to a 43-month low of -0.35, a level that has historically appeared near major market bottoms.

According to blockchain analytics platform CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s realized profit and loss ratio has fallen to -0.35 for the first time since December 2022, when the collapse of FTX pushed Bitcoin below $16,000.

The metric measures the net percentage of Bitcoin held at a realized profit or loss relative to the total circulating supply, and CryptoQuant said previous declines below this threshold have coincided with major turning points in the market.

Once among the top performers of the 2021 bull run, Shiba Inu (SHIB) continues to face difficulties after shedding over 95% of its all-time high price. The meme currency, which delivered enormous profits for its early investors, has been trading against a backdrop of strong selling pressure for the past few years due to changed market conditions.

While there has been some positive momentum for SHIB in 2024, hopelessness set back again amid increased economic uncertainties. Now, it is unclear whether SHIB is on the verge of hitting rock bottom or another fall can be anticipated. Despite having faith in the project’s future, there are a number of economic and market reasons that are restricting its potential to recover further.

Economic Situation Further Adds to Pressure on Meme Coins

Shiba Inu was able to start off 2024 well, reaching almost $0.00003 by December as the community expected a new bull run. But it did not last long.

As economic conditions worsened in late 2025 and early 2026 due to inflation, tensions, and slow economic growth, investors became less interested in taking risks. As a result, most of them withdrew money from meme coins.

SHIB fell towards the level of $0.000004, which was one of its lowest values in recent years and canceled out all the gains made by the previous rally. The overall crypto market was also affected as the situation with monetary policy worldwide became unclear.

Policy at the Federal Reserve Remains a Major Threat

Macroeconomic factors will continue to influence the forecast of SHIB’s price.

High inflation has been reported in the country, resulting in the Federal Reserve maintaining its tight monetary policy stance. Although interest rates have not seen changes in the latest meetings of policymakers, many participants in the market see interest rates staying high if inflation persists.

Interest rate hikes usually lead to lower liquidity levels in the financial market as investors tend to shift towards safe investments like government securities and cash. Cryptocurrencies become less popular amid higher interest rates due to their speculative nature. Since meme tokens are the most volatile cryptocurrencies on the market, price fluctuations will be higher if market sentiment declines.

High Supply of Tokens Hinders Price Increases

The next major hurdle that Shiba Inu faces is the huge supply of tokens.

At present, there are around 589 trillion tokens of SHIB in circulation. High token supply makes any significant price appreciation difficult compared to other assets with low token supply.

Even though there are increases in buying activity, it needs heavy demand to accommodate the huge amount of tokens that exist in the market. Despite temporary surges in demand, rallies have been challenging due to the high token supply. Community-initiated token burns keep reducing the supply; however, many experts think the rate is too slow to make any significant difference.

Is There Hope for Shiba Inu to Recover

Even with the current bearish trend, there are various elements that may favor the coin in the long run. Economic growth, lower levels of inflation, and a friendlier monetary policy from the Fed could revive demand for riskier assets. A bullish market for cryptocurrencies would also favor the success of meme coins like Shiba Inu.

One of the major strengths of the project is its massive and highly active community. The token continues to enjoy one of the largest communities in the cryptocurrency space, while development of the ecosystem will further bolster the confidence of investors. Nonetheless, there are numerous people who still hold big unrealized losses after buying the token close to its previous all-time high prices. In the event of a price recovery, some of these investors could dump their tokens during rallies.