The senior Reform member wasn’t pulling any punches. ‘There’s no way Nigel puts this behind him now,’ he told me.
‘The five million quid isn’t going to go away. George Cottrell isn’t going away. I don’t understand what he was thinking. But it doesn’t matter. I don’t see how we move on from it.’
Another Reform insider was equally scathing of their leader. ‘The Clacton stunt was madness. He’s totally marginalised himself and the party. Recess is the moment we traditionally capitalise. But we’re nowhere. We’re just talking to ourselves.’
Even three months ago, such seditious talk would have been unthinkable. There were tensions and factions inside Reform, as there are inside all parties.
But they were confined to backbiting among Nigel Farage’s lieutenants, MPs and activists. Criticism of Farage himself was essentially confined to eye-rolling over his time-keeping.
But now senior members of the party are starting to think the unthinkable. ‘Nigel isn’t immortal,’ one said. ‘What he’s done is incredible. But there’s a limit to what one man can achieve.’
Farage had hoped the summer recess, and his bold gamble of attempting to turn the table on his political pursuers by provoking a by-election in his staunchly supportive Essex constituency, would result in a transformation of his political fortunes. Instead he has placed himself at the centre of a perfect storm.
His failure to adequately address questions over his £5 million gift from Thai crypto-billionaire Christopher Harborne started to raise concerns internally.
The collapse in Farage’s personal ratings has been even more precipitous. At the start of last October he had an approval rating of minus 10 – today he sits on minus 22
The dramatic decision – taken with a small clique of senior advisers but without any wider consultation – to resign and promote his Clacton showdown poured petrol on these smouldering embers of discontent. Discontent that rapidly heightened when it emerged his sole serious challenger in the contest would be Count Binface.
But what has finally tipped people over the edge is the collapse of both Reform’s national polling numbers and Farage’s own ratings.
Reform have basically been in decline since last October. But the brutal defenestration of Keir Starmer, Andy Burnham’s bounce and Kemi Badenoch’s remarkable resurrection have sent their numbers into freefall.
At the peak of their support nine months ago, Reform were on 31 per cent, 11 points ahead of Labour and a full 14 points ahead of the Conservatives. Today they are languishing on 24 per cent, just one point ahead of Burnham’s party, and only five points ahead of Badenoch’s Tories.
The collapse in Farage’s personal ratings has been even more precipitous. At the start of last October, he had an approval rating of minus 10 – of itself not the most ringing endorsement but still 11 points better than Badenoch and a staggering 30 points above the benighted Starmer.
Today he sits on minus 22, 31 points below Andy Burnham and 24 points below the Tory’s Lady Lazarus.
This breakdown in Farage’s personal standing has resulted in an implosion of Reform’s discipline.
Even when Farage wins his by-election, it will be an empty victory. Election night will be a circus, as he attempts to bask in his triumph over Count Binface, Baron Von Thunderclap and Nick The Incredible Flying Brick, writes Dan Hodges
As for Farage’s inner circle, long-standing suspicion has turned into a concrete belief there is a traitor in their midst
Zia Yusuf, the party’s home affairs spokesman, was described to me by one insider as ‘completely out of control. The press office have no idea what he’s going to do or say’.
As for Farage’s inner circle, long-standing suspicion has turned into a concrete belief there is a traitor in their midst. According to one source: ‘Someone is out to get Nigel. The stuff people are getting on the finances is too detailed. We’ve got a rat on the inside.’
The result is the number of people trusted to make decisions has shrunk to a tiny core of acolytes. Which in turn has added to the party’s dysfunctionality.
‘Nigel should be devolving decision-making,’ one former ally told me, ‘but instead everything’s becoming more centralised and secretive. It’s unsustainable.’
It is. Within Westminster there is a settled narrative that says if Farage is forced to walk away from politics, Reform are effectively finished.
But in reality the opposite is true. Unless Reform find a way to move on from Farage, they are doomed.
The polls are unequivocal. Reform’s leader has always been a divisive figure. But that divisiveness has morphed into a politically terminal toxicity.
The number of people who passionately dislike Reform’s leader now outweighs those who idolise him by a margin of almost two to one. And crucially, the former group are prepared to lend their votes to just about anyone if it means keeping him out.
!['Look at the coverage Chris [Philp, the Tory home affairs spokesman] has been getting on small boats. That¿s Farage¿s issue. And we¿ve been running rings round him,¿ says a Tory strategist](https://i.dailymail.com/1s/2026/08/01/16/110385055-16021925-image-a-86_1785599764177.jpg)
‘Look at the coverage Chris [Philp, the Tory home affairs spokesman] has been getting on small boats. That’s Farage’s issue. And we’ve been running rings round him,’ says a Tory strategist
Caerphilly. Gorton. Makerfield. The Manchester mayoralty. The pattern is now established. Reform begins the campaign seemingly as favourites. And ends it comfortably defeated after an unofficial anti-Farage – he would say ‘uniparty’ – coalition unites to stand in his way.
Then there is Farage himself. The political antenna that once enabled him to judge the mood of the British people in a way that appeared psychic has been snapped off. As exemplified by his Clacton gamble, which has turned into an unmitigated disaster even before a single ballot has been cast.
Earlier in the week I had a drink with a couple of senior Tory strategists, who were literally raising their glasses to their old nemesis.
‘Because of the broadcasting rules on by-elections, there are now limits on how much coverage he’s allowed,’ one explained delightedly. ‘That’s given us the space to control the agenda. Look at the coverage Chris [Philp, the Tory home affairs spokesman] has been getting on small boats. That’s Farage’s issue. And we’ve been running rings round him.’
Even when Farage wins his by-election, it will be an empty victory. Election night will be a circus, as he attempts to bask in his triumph over Count Binface, Baron Von Thunderclap and Nick The Incredible Flying Brick.
The fact that he has held Reform’s safest seat in the country will – literally – Count for nothing. The man who a year ago was being touted as a future Prime Minister will have gambled everything to effectively become the mayor of Clacton.
Farage’s internal critics are right. There is no escape for him now. The leaks will continue. The questions will mount. The police are starting to take a growing interest in Reform’s affairs. And the attempts to deflect with increasingly hysterical claims of an ‘establishment stitch-up’ are not having the desired effect. So his party is about to face a reckoning.
In my view, it’s not actually a one-man-band. Lee Anderson is an authentic and robust tribune for working people. Richard Tice brought a discipline and professionalism to his time as leader. Rob Jenrick is a polished and persuasive media performer.
And in the weeks and months ahead they will have a decision to make. Is it really the case Reform are nothing without Farage?
Or are they a serious political party, rather than a monument to one man’s folly?
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