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NewsBeat

Scotland told referee missed clear penalty in World Cup VAR drama as Scott McTominay fumes

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Daily Mirror

Scotland’s Group match with Morocco was played on a knife-edge the entire match, but they were left furious when they were not awarded a penalty

ITV referee analyst Christina Unkel believes Scotland should have been awarded a penalty in their World Cup defeat to Morocco. Steve Clarke’s side were beaten 1-0 by the Africa Cup of Nations winners in Boston.

They struggled to create any real opportunities against the North Africans, who were good value for their win with Ismael Saibari grabbing the game’s only goal in the second minute. However, the Scots were denied a clear penalty in the eyes of Unkel.

McTominay charged into the 18-yard box when he was tackled from behind by Neil El Aynaoui. It was deemed by VAR that the Moroccan midfielder got a touch on the ball, but replays suggested otherwise.

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Unkel was convinced they should have been awarded a penalty when the Napoli ace was bundled over. She said: “The first thing you’re looking for as VAR is any touch on that ball and the answer is no.

“We saw that second replay there and exactly what I was looking for, there was no contact on that ball. There is a trip up from behind, contact on the left lower leg.

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“For this, I do think there is a missed incident from the var to recommend a penalty as well as the referee to not make a decision on penalty. I know this referee is calling a more physical game but it is a very clear penalty in my opinion.”

Ally McCoist, who was commentating for ITV, also believed his countrymen should have earned a penalty. He said: “I did say when I watched it second time there is a challenge on the left leg. But I did say I’m enjoying the referee allowing the game to go. However, Christina is right, he did get that one wrong.”

McTominay looked shocked as his appeals were waved away before furiously protesting. Roy Keane, however, was less than convinced it was a penalty. He said: “I don’t think it was a penalty. As simple as that. He was kind of looking to go down. I think he was looking to go down. There’s a difference.”

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Fellow ITV pundit Ange Postecoglou also agreed with Keane, saying: “The Moroccan penalty gets his leg out, but I don’t think that’s enough to be a penalty. He does get across him, but not for a penalty, I think he was going down anyway.”

McTominay was furious when the Uzbekistani official Ilgiz Tantashev did not point to the spot. That was not the only time they believed they deserved a penalty.

Early in the second half, John McGinn appeared to be brought down by the same player when he broke into the penalty area. While there also appeared to be little contact with the ball, it was also deemed not enough to be a penalty.

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The defeat leaves Scotland with work to do to advance to the knockouts, with their final group match against one of the tournament favourites, Brazil, next Wednesday.

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Gritters will be on roads this week as RAC says put umbrella in your car

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Wales Online

There is a new list of items you should be carrying in your car this week

Gritters could be out in force on UK roads this week and drivers are also being advised to keep an umbrella in their cars. The AA said drivers could see gritters out on some roads this week with the potential for surfaces to soften or become sticky under the heat, with heavy traffic even causing them to rut in some places.

Edmund King, AA president, said: “The main risk for drivers is not that the road suddenly ‘melts’ everywhere, but that patches can become tacky or uneven. That can affect braking, steering and grip, especially for motorcyclists and cyclists, and can also throw up loose material.

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“If drivers come across a softened or damaged surface, they should slow down, avoid harsh braking or steering, and leave extra space from the vehicle in front.”

The AA also warned that heat can put extra strain on vehicles, with under-inflated, damaged or old tires particularly likely to fail in hotter conditions. “Before a long journey, check tyre pressures, tread and sidewalls, and carry water in case you are delayed,” Mr King said.

“In these temperatures the advice remains never to leave passengers or animals unattended in parked cars even for short periods when the interior of the car can soon get as hot as an oven.”

It comes as the Met Office issues a red warning for extreme heat across the centre of the UK for Wednesday and Thuirsday.

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RAC road safety spokesperson Rod Dennis said: “Red extreme heat warnings are rare and we urge everyone to take them seriously this week. Drivers whose vehicles don’t have effective air conditioning should strongly consider postponing any non-essential car journeys until the Met Office’s weather warnings are lifted and temperatures drop. If this isn’t possible, our best advice is to travel during cooler times of day. This is especially important for anyone travelling with vulnerable people, including young children and older adults, who are at greater risk from the intense heat. We’d also remind motorists never to leave pets inside a hot vehicle, as doing so can quickly become fatal.

“This week could end up being a record-breaking one for June – not just because of the heat, but also for the number of drivers breaking down. Our last busiest June was three years ago, but there’s every chance that could be eclipsed this week as temperatures soar. Today, we expect breakdown volumes to be around 20% higher than what’s normal for a Monday in late June.

“We ask anyone who breaks down to be patient while breakdown providers prioritise the most urgent roadside jobs. The heatwave will affect services right across the UK and while all patrols will be working incredibly hard to assist drivers, longer waits are more likely. Staying safe in the heat is paramount, so we strongly recommend packing an emergency breakdown kit (see below) and waiting in the shade wherever possible.

“There are simple steps motorists can take to reduce the risk of a breakdown in the first place, however. It begins with a few basic checks under the bonnet before setting out. Make sure oil levels are sufficient and top up if needed. Coolant should also sit between the ‘min’ and ‘max’ markers – if it isn’t, top it up yourself when the engine is cold and have it inspected by an RAC mobile mechanic or reputable garage as soon as possible.

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“At these kinds of temperatures, road surfaces will soften, with darker patches of tarmac often the clearest indicator. Drivers may therefore see councils deploying gritting vehicles – a sight normally reserved for the winter – as applying a fine layer of granite dust can help maintain traction on melting roads. Motorists also shouldn’t be concerned if they spot water beneath their vehicle, as this is typically just condensation from the air conditioning system.”

RAC’s top tips to keeping your car cool in a heatwave

  • Don’t leave home without an emergency breakdown kit – see below
  • Park in the shade. This is a simple solution that’s often overlooked by drivers. But keeping your car out of direct sunlight is one of the best ways to keep the interior cool in the summer
  • Cover the seats with a blanket or jacket. If your vehicle has leather seats then the summer sun will transform the surface of the seat into a hotplate. Keep them cool by covering them up, especially if you have to park in direct sunlight
  • Learn how to use your car’s air conditioning system. Do you really understand how your vehicle’s air con or climate control system works? Check the owner’s manual to fully understand how it operates and what setting(s) you need to use to cool the car’s interior quickly and effectively in the summer
  • Carry water and soft drinks at all times. Keep a spare bottle of water and one or two soft drinks in your car at all times. Dehydration can impact your concentration and awareness levels, presenting a danger to drivers in hot weather conditions
  • Keep a cool bag/box in your car. This will keep drinks and snacks cool in a heatwave and ensure you can properly hydrate and have a refreshing, cool snack

Your emergency breakdown kit – what to carry with you in these temperatures

  • Plenty of water for the driver and all passengers – consider carrying a camping-style water carrier so you’ve always got plenty with you
  • Sufficientsnacks that won’t melt or go off in the heat – in a coolbox if you have one
  • Hats and umbrellas to shield from the sun
  • Sunscreen
  • Emergency medication if needed
  • A fully-charged mobile phone – and on smartphones, download and login to your breakdown service’s app, such as myRAC, to reach help as quickly as possible (this can also help your provider with locating your vehicle)
  • A means of keeping pets secure if you have to leave your car – and sufficient food and water for them

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Enzo Maresca can repeat Pep Guardiola’s first Man City move with Jeremy Doku

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Manchester Evening News

Incoming Manchester City manager Enzo Maresca finds a situation he cannot have expected with Jeremy Doku

World Cups come along once every four years, the birth of your first child is a once-in-a-lifetime event and – unfortunately – there is no premium on rent-a-gobs in a world where the more controversial or distasteful your view the more chance of it being amplified on the mainstream social media platforms.

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Jeremy Doku has found himself the latest footballer to be on the wrong end of bizarre and unfair criticism because major football tournaments attract the worst kind of opinions.

It is depressing enough that the content of the attack isn’t really worth regurgitating, but safe to say it isn’t even new. Rewind 10 years to when Pep Guardiola was ready to take over and there was another (also black, would you believe!) footballer who played for City who was getting a barrage of abuse.

Guardiola hadn’t been officially unveiled as City manager while England were embarrassing themselves with a dismal exit at the hands of Iceland, yet the new boss went out of his way to ring Raheem Sterling up and tell him to ignore the abuse that he was getting in the stands and on social media from people who couldn’t recognise talent when they saw it. Sterling was reassured that not only did Guardiola believe he could shine on the international stage but that regardless he was counted on at City.

That meant a lot to a young player who had struggled after an acrimonious move from Liverpool in a City side that had drifted during Manuel Pellegrini’s final year in charge, with Sterling not even holding a regular place at the Etihad by the end of his first year there as he headed off for Euro 2016. Despite a terrible tournament for all, he came back to Manchester with a bounce because of Guardiola’s words and became one of the best players in the Premier League.

Doku has not been criticised for his football yet the abuse, and the subsequent debate it has prompted, will still have cut through and stung. In what should have been one of the happiest moments of his life, some have chosen to assassinate his character over a football match.

The winger’s phone will almost certainly have lit up with support from teammates and friends – possibly Guardiola as well – and a message from incoming City manager Enzo Maresca would surely go down well. Even if the content of the messages shouldn’t need to be said, they will all be appreciated.

Whether it is now or weeks down the road, Maresca will have to address the situation with Doku to check in on how he is and the sooner that happens it could be better for the manager. In his task of replacing Guardiola, it is a dressing room that needs to be convinced by the new coach.

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Doku shouldn’t have become a story in this World Cup, but now that he is Maresca could do worse than replicating one of Guardiola’s first moves at City.

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Jack Draper vs Marcos Giron LIVE: Latest updates from Eastbourne as Wimbledon preparation begins

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Jack Draper vs Marcos Giron LIVE: Latest updates from Eastbourne as Wimbledon preparation begins

This year, he has tried to come back three times, at Dubai, Miami and Barcelona, but each time he has been dealt with another setback. Now, however, with new coach Sir Andy Murray in his corner, he feels that he can compete once more with just a week before Wimbledon. Keep up to date with all the latest with our live blog below, with expert insight and analysis from Oli Gent at Devonshire Park.

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Peterborough free parking slammed as ‘appalling misuse of money’

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Cambridgeshire Live

Readers have been debating the free parking scheme launching in Peterborough city centre this summer, and whether it really is ‘free’ or just subsidised

CambridgeshireLive readers have been discussing proposals for complimentary parking at certain car parks, with considerable debate over where the scheme actually operates and who funds it.

A launch date has been confirmed for free parking in Peterborough city centre. Pending approval from Peterborough City Council’s Cabinet, complimentary parking at four council-owned car parks will begin on Monday, August 3.

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The four sites will be: Bishops Road; Car Haven; Riverside; Pleasure Fair Meadow. Parking at these locations will be free from 3pm onwards.

The initiative was promised by Mayor of Cambridgeshire and Peterborough, Paul Bristow in his manifesto. The Mayor allocated £1.5 million in his budget to introduce free parking across both Peterborough and Huntingdonshire.

“I said I would bring free parking and it’s happening this summer,” Mayor Bristow said. “I made this pledge because I believe our city centre needs a lift.”

The objective of the complimentary parking scheme, which will operate as a time-limited trial, is to generate increased footfall to support local businesses, and increase the health and vibrancy of the evening economy. Several commenters noted that the free parking being discussed is located in Peterborough rather than Cambridge.

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One reader, Feelgood66 simply states: “I go to Ely, no problem.”

While Freddly adds: “There is no such thing as ‘free’ parking, only subsidised parking. This is just another example of the burden that car and van drivers impose on households without cars.”

Rootintootinredux writes: “Free buses were announced this week, too. Costing the taxpayer nearly £100 per person per journey.”

Bobs26 feels: “An appalling misuse of money originally intended to improve bus services.”

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Banallbikes thinks: “It’s a start, but all car parking should be free, and then more people will visit places and support the local economy.”

While over on our Facebook page, Tarnia P comments: “Only in Peterborough. There’s no way Cambridge City Council would let people park for free.”

Robert EH replies: ” All day free parking at Park and Rides, free parking at the supermarkets and retail parks. There is no space in Cambridge for mass parking in the centre.”

Simon W says: “That’s great. I’m sure the people of Cambridge love the idea of subsidising other people’s parking through their Council Tax given how reasonably priced it is to actually park in and around Cambridge itself. Crack on.”

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Do you think that free parking will bring people into the town? Comment below or HERE to have your say.

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Keir Starmer Has Officially Quit. What Happens Now?

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Keir Starmer Has Officially Quit. What Happens Now?

Keir Starmer officially resigned as leader of the Labour Party this morning while setting out a timetable for his departure as prime minister.

The PM gradually lost the support of his colleagues in the parliamentary Labour party over the last two years, following a series of unpopular policies, U-turns, and scandals engulfing some of his top team.

His premiership has come under particular pressure after his main rival, popular Labour politician Andy Burnham, won the Makerfield by-election last week.

Burnham was expected to challenge Starmer’s premiership in the coming days if he did not go of his own accord.

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Starmer’s decision to voluntarily step down means Britain is on the way to its seventh prime minister in a decade.

But plenty of questions remain over just what happens next. Here’s what we know.

When Will The UK Get A New Prime Minister?

Starmer explained in his resignation speech that the National Executive Committee of the Labour Party will set out a timetable to make sure a new leader is in place by the start of September.

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Nominations will open for the leadership on July 9, a week before parliament’s summer recess, and they will close on July 16.

If there is a contest, it will be completed by September 1 when MPs return to Westminster.

If there is not a contest, the UK could have a new prime minister by July 17.

Until his successor is in place – either once nominations close or after a summer contest – he will remain in post as prime minister, Starmer said.

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Who Will Be The Next Labour Leader?

Andy Burnham is widely expected to replace Starmer as he has substantial backing across the Labour Party.

To be nominated as Labour leader and de facto prime minister, an MP needs the support of at least 20% (81 MPs) of the Parliamentary Labour Party (PLP).

Burnham is said to exceed that threshold with plenty of support from fellow MPs.

He announced on Monday that he would be running in the leadership contest.

However, there is nothing to stop other Labour MPs also throwing their hats into the ring if they also have 81 MPs backing them.

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Wes Streeting quit as health secretary last month over frustrations with Starmer’s leadership, and previously insisted he would compete in any leadership contest.

However, he backed Burnham on Monday morning, effectively pulling out of the race.

Al Carns resigned as Armed Forces minister earlier this month too, and has heavily hinted he would run.

HuffPost UK heard foreign secretary Yvette Cooper has plenty of advocates too, especially among those who believe it’s time Labour had a female leader.

Other names have also been thrown into the mix, including former defence secretary John Healey, former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner and energy secretary Ed Miliband.

Will There Be A General Election?

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Reform UK’s Nigel Farage said it was time for a general election, writing on X: “If Labour thinks it can shove another professional politician into No.10, it has another thing coming.”

His party are leading in the polls and would likely win big if voters went to the ballot box right now.

There is no legal obligation for the government to snap general election.

The current parliamentary term does not have to end until the summer of 2029, five years on from when ex-PM Rishi Sunak called a general election.

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The Conservatives swapped Boris Johnson for Liz Truss and then again for Rishi Sunak between 2019 and 2024 without going to a public vote.

Home Office minister Mike Tapp revealed he supported the idea of a general election on Sunday, writing on X: “If a change of leader is forced by its own Party then a General Election must be called.

“That would stop the constant churn and focus all politicians on delivery, instead of work place politics. These endless ‘house of cards’ games would end and the country would benefit.”

It would be at the discretion of Starmer’s successor to hold a general election.

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What Happens To Keir Starmer Now?

Starmer will continue to act as prime minister until July 17 at the earliest and September 1, at the very latest.

He said he will focus on his family once leaving office, so he can be “the best husband I can, to my fantastic wife Vic, who has been a rock by my side through good times and bad.”

He continued: “And being the best dad that I can to my beautiful children, who are my pride and joy.”

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He did not touch on whether he would stay on as the MP for Holborn and St Pancras, but tradition suggests he will – at least for the time being.

Quitting that position would trigger a by-election and risk causing further upheaval for the Labour Party.

Ex-prime minister David Cameron only stood down as the MP for Witney after his successor Theresa May was firmly in place in No.10.

Though May was ousted from office in 2019 but she continued to represent Maidenhead until she chose to stand aside in 2024.

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Boris Johnson stayed on as a backbencher for Uxbridge and South Ruislip for a year after he was forced out of Downing Street.

After her short-lived spell in Downing Street, Liz Truss remained Norfolk MP until she lost to Labour at the general election.

Rishi Sunak is still the Richmond and Northallerton MP, almost two years after he lost the general election.

There has been some speculation that a successor could offer Starmer a cabinet role, but allies have suggested that is not on the cards.

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Listen to Commons People, the podcast that makes politics easy. Every week, Kevin Schofield and Kate Nicholson unpack the week’s biggest stories to keep you informed. Join us for straightforward analysis of what’s going on at Westminster.

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Police hunt for York man Luke Downs after prison release

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Police hunt for York man Luke Downs after prison release

North Yorkshire Police have launched a hunt for 22-year-old Luke Downs from York after he breached his licence conditions.

This follows his release from prison, where he was jailed for possessing an offensive weapon.


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“Extensive enquiries have been carried out to locate him but he remains wanted,” said a spokesperson for the force.

If you have seen Luke or have any information about his whereabouts, please call the police on 101, or if you wish to remain anonymous you can contact Crimestoppers on 0800 555 111 or online via their website.

If you have an immediate sighting of him or know where he is now, please call 999.

Please quote reference 12260107304 when passing on information. 

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Bolton bin collection times to change due to heatwave

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Bolton bin collection times to change due to heatwave

Residents are being advised that bin collection times will temporarily change this week to help protect waste collection crews during the spell of extreme heat.

From Tuesday 23 June to Friday 26 June, crews will begin collections earlier than usual, with a new start time of 6am.

The temporary change has been introduced to allow staff to carry out their work during the cooler parts of the day, reducing the risk posed by high temperatures.

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Residents are asked to support crews by:

• Putting their bins out the night before their scheduled collection day

• Ensuring bins are ready for collection by 6am at the latest

• Leaving bins in an accessible and visible location at the kerbside

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All collection days remain unchanged, and crews will continue to follow their normal routes.

Cllr Robert Morrisey, Bolton Council’s Executive Cabinet Member for Environmental Services, said: “This change is a short-term measure to ensure essential services can continue while prioritising the health and wellbeing of frontline staff during very hot weather.

“The council thanks residents for their cooperation and understanding during this period.”

An amber heat alert has been issued for Bolton and the rest of Greater Manchester as temperatures are set to rise reaching highs of 35C on Thursday.

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What happens now as Sir Keir Starmer resigns as PM?

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What happens now as Sir Keir Starmer resigns as PM?

Sir Keir had previously insisted he would fight a leadership challenge before the by-election. 

The Labour Prime Minister won the 2024 general election, in a landslide victory for the party. 

However, today (June 22), Sir Keir told the nation that he would be resigning.

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Sir Keir Starmer resigns as Prime Minister

This morning, Sir Keir Starmer stepped out of Downing Street accompanied by his wife Victoria to cheers and applause from his team.

In his resignation speech, Sir Keir said he will resign as leader of the Labour Party, and he has informed the King of his decision.

He began to get emotional as he thanked his wife Victoria and spoke about his children who are his “pride and joy”.

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What happens now that Sir Keir Starmer has resigned as Prime Minister? 

Following Sir Keir’s resignation, a Labour leadership race will take place within the coming weeks.

Until the next Prime Minister is confirmed, Sir Keir will continue in the role.

The Party will choose its next leader and the next occupant of 10 Downing Street.

When it comes to entering the contest, Labour’s rules mean even getting onto the ballot can be a complex process, the Press Association says.

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First, candidates must secure the backing of 81 Labour MPs, 20% of the party’s parliamentary strength.

They then need to receive nominations from either 5% of constituency Labour parties, or three affiliated organisations (which must include two trade unions) which represent 5% of affiliated membership.

Only after passing those two stages will candidates go before the party membership.


Sir Keir Starmer in profile


Who could be the next Prime Minister?

Andy Burnham’s decision to stand in the Makerfield by-election – giving up the Greater Manchester mayoralty to become an MP – suggests he believes he has the necessary backing from the parliamentary party to get onto the ballot.

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Former health secretary Wes Streeting has repeatedly insisted he has the 81 names required to mount a leadership bid, and has spent the weeks since his resignation setting out his stall.

Former Royal Marines officer Al Carns, who quit as armed forces minister in a row over defence funding and the treatment of Northern Ireland veterans, has also hinted he would seek to enter a leadership race, although it is unclear whether the MP, who was only elected in 2024, has the supporters required to get on the ballot paper.



Has a UK Prime Minister resigned before? 

Prime Ministers resigning is a regular occurrence in UK politics. 

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Labour PM Tony Blair resigned in 2007, while his successors David Cameron, Theresa May, and Boris Johnson all stepped down from their posts. 

Boris Johnson was forced to resign after the partygate scandal, and other events turned the public and much of his own party against his premiership. 

In 2022, Liz Truss became the UK’s shortest-serving PM after being in the role for just 45 days before she stepped down.

Who would you like to see be the next Prime Minister? Tell us in the comments below.

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Nigel Farage calls for general election in explosive statement

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Nigel Farage calls for general election in explosive statement

In a statement outside Downing Street this morning, Monday 22 June, Starmer confirmed he would be stepping down.

He said: “Walking out this street two years ago was the proudest moment of my life, a new Labour government after years of disappointment and despair.”

READ MORE:

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Starmer then listed off his government’s achievements, before conceding: “My party is asking whether I am best placed to lead us into the next general election.

“I accept their decision in good grace; that is why I will resign.”

In response, Farage wrote on X, formerly known as Twitter: “The Prime Minister is finished.

“I have to give Starmer some credit: even I couldn’t have predicted how quickly he would reveal himself as the most incompetent Prime Minister this country has ever had the misfortune of having.

“Starmer isn’t the first Prime Minister I’ve deposed, and he won’t be the last. David Cameron. Theresa May. Rishi Sunak. And next up – Andy Burnham.

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“The reason each leader has failed is the same. What the political class fails to understand is that the electorate won’t accept being taken for fools.

“They cannot continue to take the votes of the people who supported them for granted, only to betray them upon having gained power. Politics is about trust.

“That is why I am calling for a general election at the soonest possible date.

“You know as well as I do that the country cannot afford to waste another week drifting from crisis to crisis.

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“That’s why millions of you turned out in the local elections to vote for Reform councillors, and it’s why we have led in more than 300 opinion polls for well over a year.

The British public have made their voices clear in May this year and last: Britain is broken and they want a radical reforming government that will fundamentally fix our country.

“But instead, Westminster wants to crown Andy Burnham off the back of a single by-election.”

Who do you want to be the next Prime Minister? Let us know in the comments

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human activities are a major reason why

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human activities are a major reason why

The Caspian Sea, the largest inland body of water on Earth, is shrinking. Not fluctuating, not entering another natural cycle, but shrinking.

For decades, scientists and policymakers treated changes in the Caspian as part of the basin’s natural variability. Water levels in the sea have always risen and fallen.

But our new study shows something far more troubling: the current decline is increasingly driven by human decisions to dam and divert rivers, and by fragmented decision-making across five countries that border this body of water.

Using satellite observations together with ground-based hydrological records from rivers across all five shoreline states (Iran, Russia, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan), we found that flow into the Caspian Sea has declined sharply over the past three decades.

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The main reason is not declining rainfall. In fact, rain over the Volga Basin, which supplies roughly 80% of the Caspian’s inflow, has slightly increased. That finding matters because it overturns one of the most common assumptions surrounding the Caspian crisis. The common narrative has been straightforward: climate change increases evaporation, rainfall declines, and the sea shrinks.

Climate change certainly plays a role: our analysis confirms that evaporation across the Caspian has increased significantly as regional temperatures rise. But evaporation alone explains only about 40% of the observed water loss since the mid-1990s.

The remaining decline points overwhelmingly toward human activity. The Volga River has been heavily engineered for decades. Dams, reservoirs, use for irrigation, industrial consumption and navigation systems have fundamentally altered the hydrology of the basin).

Water that once flowed naturally into the Caspian is increasingly intercepted upstream. One critical but rarely discussed example is the Volga–Don canal system, which links the Caspian basin to the Black Sea through Russia’s internal waterways. Geopolitically and economically, the canal is strategically valuable. But it diverts water away from the Caspian system.

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À lire aussi :
Why the Caspian Sea has become so important in both the Ukraine and Iran wars


The cumulative effect is now visible from space. Since the mid-1990s, the Caspian Sea has lost roughly 24,000km² of surface area, an area approaching the size of Sicily. Water levels have fallen by about two metres.

The shallow northern Caspian, ecologically one of the most productive parts of the sea, is drying particularly rapidly. This matters because the northern Caspian is not empty water. It is a critical ecological zone supporting fisheries, wetlands, migratory birds and spawning grounds for sturgeon, the ancient fish species that produce most of the world’s caviar.

Threats to shipping

As water retreats, ecological stress intensifies. Our study also detected a long-term rise in chlorophyll-a concentrations in the northern Caspian, a key indicator of algal activity and declining water quality. In plain terms, the sea is becoming warmer, shallower and increasingly nutrient-rich: ideal conditions for harmful algal blooms.

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This is not merely an environmental story. The Caspian region sits at the centre of major energy and trade corridors linking Europe and Asia). Russia’s north-south transport routes and China’s international development plan, the Belt and Road Initiative, plus offshore oil infrastructure and regional shipping networks all depend on the Caspian remaining navigable and stable.

Falling water levels threaten ports, shipping lanes and coastal infrastructure. Declining depths reduce cargo capacity and increase transport costs. What appears initially as an environmental issue gradually becomes an economic constraint.

The Caspian Sea region


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Political problems

Then there is the political dimension. Unlike oceans, inland seas cannot rely on global circulation to buffer local mismanagement. Their survival depends directly on the behaviour of neighbouring states. And the Caspian is surrounded by countries with competing strategic interests, uneven governance systems and limited transparency over their water use.

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That fragmentation has become one of the greatest risks facing the sea. Although regional agreements exist, including the 2018 Aktau Convention (formally the Convention on the Legal Status of the Caspian Sea), there is still no comprehensive and enforceable system governing water allocation, hydrological monitoring or ecological protection across the basin. Data sharing remains limited. Water withdrawals are often opaque. Environmental management is fragmented.

This resembles a pattern seen repeatedly across modern environmental crises: governments prefer to discuss climate change because it externalises responsibility. It allows leaders to portray ecological decline as an unavoidable planetary process.

But the Caspian story is more uncomfortable than that. It is also a story about political choices. Rivers were dammed. Water was diverted. Wetlands were degraded. Pollution controls remained weak. Oil and gas development expanded while ecological safeguards lagged behind. Economic growth consistently outranked hydrological sustainability.

The danger is not simply that the Caspian shrinks, but that ecological thresholds may be crossed – beyond which, recovery becomes extraordinarily difficult.

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The Aral Sea, the world’s fourth largest lake, demonstrated how quickly collapse can accelerate once a chain reaction begins. Exposed lakebeds generate dust storms. Fisheries collapse. Salinity rises. Biodiversity crashes. Local climates shift. Economic systems unravel around the drying basin.

The Caspian has not yet reached that stage – but the warning signs are becoming increasingly visible.

There is still time to slow the trajectory. However, doing so would require something historically rare in the region: long-term coordination that prioritises hydrological stability – safeguarding the sea’s natural water balance and keeping water levels from dropping past a dangerous point of ecological collapse – over short-term extraction and geopolitical competition.

This would mean transparent water accounting – the open tracking and sharing of data on exactly how much water each nation is pulling from the feeding rivers for agriculture and industry. It would mean negotiated environmental flow releases from upstream reservoirs, and recognition that the Caspian is not simply an energy corridor or a shipping route, but a fragile water system.

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Nature eventually imposes consequences on societies that ignore those limits. The Caspian Sea is beginning to deliver that message.

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