Champions League analysts Stephen Warnock, Nedum Onouha and Julien Laurens look at why the semi-finals between PSG & Bayern Munich and Atletico Madrid & Arsenal are both really hard to call who will win.

MATCH REPORT: Champions League – Arsenal 0-0 Sporting (1-0 agg)

When a visibly drained looking Alvaro Arbeloa stepped into the press room in Munich, questions about his future felt unavoidable. His expression echoed the same sense of disappointment he showed after his very first match in charge, the defeat by Albacete.

The 43-year-old has been in the role for only four months, having replaced Alonso in January. Yet the pressure has been relentless, the results have been inconsistent, and the season now looks set to end without major silverware – a repeat of 2024-25, when only the Uefa Super Cup was secured.

This would be the first time in 16 years Real Madrid have gone two consecutive seasons without winning a major trophy. Under president Florentino Perez, managers’ contracts have typically ended the moment those trophies disappear.

Throughout it all, Arbeloa has consistently taken responsibility, deflecting the blame away from his players. By his own admission, he is ‘a man of the badge’, fully committed to fighting for the club at all costs.

But taking consistent ownership for poor defeats won’t be enough to convince Perez he’s the right man to lead Madrid into next season.

The club never publicly clarified the length of Arbeloa’s contract although sources suggest it runs until the end of the 2026-27 campaign. For now, dismissing Arbeloa before the season concludes would serve little purpose, with relatively little left at stake.

Real sit nine points behind Barcelona is La Liga with a Clasico at Camp Nou still to play in May. Players have also spoken openly about how Arbeloa improved morale in the dressing room. Vinicius Junior, speaking ahead of the first leg against Bayern, said that he had ‘a wonderful connection’ with Arbeloa and that he ‘hoped he could continue’ working with him.

For now, Arbeloa said he isn’t worried about his future.

“Since I’ve been in this position, it hasn’t been the slightest worry. I feel I’ve done everything I can to help my players win every day.”

But if anyone understands the unforgiving nature of Real Madrid’s managerial turnover, it is Arbeloa.

For Arteta, it won’t matter that his side are not producing free-flowing football – the Gunners just want to get over the line and lift a trophy this season.

They are having to produce results without a number of key players, who are injured. Bukayo Saka, Martin Odegaard, Jurrien Timber and Riccardo Calafiori were unavailable to play against Sporting.

Declan Rice did play, despite being unwell.

And now there is fresh concern for the top of the table clash with Manchester City on Sunday, as winger Noni Madueke limped off with a knee injury.

When Arteta was asked if he sees the physical strain on his players at the moment, he said: “Yes, but when I see them track back when we lose the ball, the habits that they have, it’s just amazing.

“There is a reason why we are the only English team in the competition, because this league and this schedule takes the hell out of you and it’s very difficult to do what we’ve done.

“We are not perfect, we need to improve things, that’s for sure, we recognise that. But there’s value in what these players have done because they deserve it.”

Former Manchester City and QPR defender Nedum Onuoha told BBC Sport: “The fact that they are in their second consecutive Champions League semi-final is huge. Their performance itself wasn’t perfect, but they just wanted to be in that next round, and that’s exactly where they are.

“On a different day, maybe they would create more chances, and perhaps they would actually score more goals. They didn’t create very much, but they are still in the last four.”

Onuoha referenced words from captain Rice, who said Arsenal just wanted to “go one step further”.

“They will look at this game and the things they could have done better, but the fact is there are plenty of clubs around Europe who aren’t in their position now who would be absolutely delighted to be there,” he said.

“It certainly wasn’t a statement performance like some teams around Europe have done in this last couple of matchdays, however Arsenal still have shown they have just as good a chance as everyone else.

“We’ve seen a Real Madrid side, for example, that have scored four goals across two ties and have been knocked out.

“Arsenal, they only needed one, so you can give them credit for the two clean sheets they’ve had across the two ties and that’s what they needed to be in this particular moment.”

It didn’t feel like Arsenal had just qualified for only their second Champions League semi-final in 17 years. The final whistle came with overwhelming but cautious relief rather than ecstasy; the feeling that Arsenal had got away with one by the skin of their teeth, but next time they won’t be so fortunate.

Had Joao Simoes’s 94th-minute effort crept a few inches to the left, this last-eight tie was heading to extra time. That would’ve been catastrophic for Arsenal’s physical state ahead of their biggest game of the season on Sunday. In their current mental state, Arsenal progression would not have been a safe bet.

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Mikel Arteta made a rallying cry in which he asked Arsenal’s supporters to come to the Emirates not with their dinner, but with “pure fire” and “zero fear” for the visit of Sporting. Fans struggled to comply. There was less a fire in their bellies, more a collective knot.

It was a stark comparison to this exact occasion 12 months ago. When Real Madrid came to town, there was an atmosphere of unadulterated belief and optimism that this team could create magic. Maybe it helped that their Premier League title race had already been run at the time; Liverpool were 11 points clear, so their focus was streamlined.

But on this night, there was more than a tinge of anxiety in the air, a hangover from still being very much in the thick of a title race, and one that has a yellow flag being waved. Some were no longer allowing themselves to dream of the best, instead conditioned by three years of hurt to fearing the worst. “Please, enjoy where we are as a club,” Arteta said after the match, having asked for the perspective of Arsenal’s position in major competitions before this game. It’s easier said than done.

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This did not help a team of players who currently appear tortured by their own psyche. Arsenal were error-prone, especially at the back, with David Raya and William Saliba each gifting Sporting possession when unsuccessfully trying to play out from the back. It was Tottenham-esque at times.

Both blunders went unpunished; against the attacking quality of any other team in the last eight, probably barring Liverpool, things would’ve surely been different. But the concern is these aren’t isolated incidents in one match – Arsenal’s build-up from deep was hugely problematic against Bournemouth, too. A team previously heralded as one with the most resolute defence arguably in world football now looks shaky.

Such was the case for the best chance – the only real chance – of a pedestrian first-half. The culmination of a sweeping Sporting move that cut Arsenal open far too easily, Geny Catano was left completely untracked at the back post and volleyed Maximiliano Araujo’s dinked cross off the left post. On the brink of half-time, this tie should have been level.

That is not to say Sporting were playing a perfect game. They were similarly susceptible to an error (or eight) at the back; just that Arsenal rarely looked like capitalising. Those meant to drive the hosts towards goal, like Noni Madueke, were frightened to take on a man as Arsenal overthought their opportunities until dispossession. Screams of “go forwards!”, often with an expletive, were ever-present.

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When the Madueke finally did go through the gears, it fashioned Arsenal’s best chance of the game so far – darting across the box before firing into the side netting on 57 minutes. The Englishman turned a corner five minutes before he was forced off injured. “It was something in his knee so we had to take him off,” Arteta said.

The moment that encapsulated the difference in mindset between now and that famous night against Real Madrid a year ago, fittingly, came with a free-kick. Declan Rice, then the hero from the dead ball, was stood with the ball set 25 yards out – but played it short. Sporting quickly snuffed out the routine and countered. If not for the lung-besting recovery of left-winger Gabriel Martinelli down the right, the visitors were in. In diametric opposition to the Real encounter, even Arsenal’s game-changers looked scared to go for the spectacular.

But in response to any frustration about the performance, Rice’s response was emphatic. “Who cares what people think?” he told TNT Sports.

In a second half that saw Sporting gas, the visitors bookmarked the 45 with two close calls; first from Araujo three minutes after the restart, set up by Morten Hjulmand – an Arsenal fan and possible transfer target who has the club crest tattooed on his left bicep – and then Simoes with practically the last kick of the game.

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Otherwise there was improvement to speak of from the hosts, who pressed a tiring team well and came close to killing the tie when Leandro Trossard hit the post with seven minutes to play. He was found at the back post by Max Dowman, who replaced Madueke and did provide the spark that had some arguing for him to start this match. A bright finish could instil a bit of confidence, even if a late scare will leave them wiping their brow.

Between the 67th minute and the game’s final moment, Arsenal didn’t allow Sporting a shot nor a touch in their box. One of their specialties this season has been holding onto slender leads. Arteta trusts them to do this but still wouldn’t mind making things more comfortable. “I do [trust my players with one-goal leads,” he says, “but I prefer to score the goal.”

This time, Arteta’s men managed to survive. In keeping with their first-leg display in Lisbon, they emerged from the night having done what was required and nothing more.

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But heading to the Etihad, it is imperative they clear the mental fog that comes with the possibility of repeated failure. Against this Manchester City team in a ruthless vein of form, the question of whether they can emerge unscathed while still racked by such anxiety seems to answer itself.

Detroit — He’s “El Mago.” The Magician.

And Javier Báez showed off some sleight-of-hand for the ages in Wednesday night’s Tigers game against the Kansas City Royals at Comerica Park.

Báez was on third base with one out in the bottom of the third inning when Jake Rogers hit a flyball to deep right field, where Jac Caglianone caught it and threw a seed home to catcher Salvador Perez. The ball beat Báez by a wide margin, and he was called out by plate umpire Jansen Visconti.

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But Báez popped right up and asked for the challenge, and upon further review, he was safe — when he lifted his left hand over Perez’s glove and plopped it down on home plate before the glove got him.

NEW DELHI: Virat Kohli was not included in Royal Challengers Bengaluru’s starting XI against Lucknow Super Giants in Bengaluru, but he was named among the Impact Players, meaning he could still come in to bat if needed. His absence at the start comes after he picked up an ankle injury in RCB’s previous match against the Mumbai Indians, where they secured an 18-run win. Kohli and Philip Salt had been forming a steady opening pair, so his limited role slightly affects the team’s balance.RCB captain Rajat Patidar opted to bowl first, trusting the pitch conditions to help early on. “We’re gonna bowl first. It’s pretty obvious. I see a pretty good surface,” Patidar said at the toss.