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The Harbaugh Factor Has Changed Everything for the Giants

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It took just one game for the New York Giants to look like a strong team under new coach John Harbaugh.

It was like the ugliness of going 7-27 over the past two seasons had evaporated with one 60-minute football game.

There were solid performances from the players and a stellar game plan from Harbaugh and staff. And there was toughness – something not always found in recent editions of the Giants.

The 28-20 victory over the NFC East Division foe Dallas Cowboys on the Sunday Night stage was a stellar opening to the Harbaugh era.

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But as good as the Giants looked, never forget this: Winning your season opener isn’t a sign that a team has arrived. The season can go the other way.

Just ask the 2020 Jacksonville Jaguars. Doug Marrone coached Jacksonville to a 27-20 victory over the Indianapolis Colts in Week 1. The Jaguars then lost all 15 remaining games.

You can trust a Harbaugh-coached team won’t bottom out that badly but New York has missed the playoffs in eight of the past nine seasons for a reason.

The simple explanation is the Giants haven’t been very good. Of course, the merry-go-round of coaches (four full-timers, two interims in 10 seasons) is not the type of things equated to winning teams.

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So Harbaugh was hired and the mission is to make the Giants a perennial playoff team. Few people expect him to fall short.

Maybe it’s the fact he won 180 regular-season games, produced 11 seasons of 10 or more wins, made 12 playoff appearances and won a Super Bowl ring during his 18 seasons with the Baltimore Ravens.

That sounds like a Hall of Fame resume in progress. In fact, only five NFL coaches have 250 career victories. He’s 69 away from joining that club after the victory over Dallas.

Harbaugh teams are typically well-prepared and highly organized. He has a structure and has quickly changed New York’s culture before coaching his second game.

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Tight end Isaiah Likely was one of four Ravens who followed Harbaugh to The Meadowlands. He made a stellar first impression by catching two touchdowns against the Cowboys.

Likely spent four seasons listening to Harbaugh’s speeches and watching his methods. He now sees that his new teammates are hearing the messages and buying in.

“I’d say it’s really his identity, his culture,” Likely told The New York Post. “Obviously with the Ravens, he had been there for so long, it feels like it was the Ravens identity. But coach Harbaugh was always the head coach.

“I feel like he instilled the Ravens mantra and everything. So when he got over here, I guess you can quote-unquote say it was the Ravens mantra, but it’s coach Harbaugh’s culture.”

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Harbaugh and the Giants are preparing for their Week 2 game on Monday night at the Los Angeles Rams. It will be the team’s second straight prime-time contest, surely another element of the Harbaugh factor.

Why else would a team that went 4-13 last season be on national TV in their first two games of the following season?

Only the Harbaugh factor prompted that double-double.

For New York to be a threat in the NFC playoff competition, second-year quarterback Jaxson Dart needs to take a step forward, while second-year running back Cam Skattebo and third-year receiver Malik Nabers need to stay healthy.

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Dart threw 15 touchdown passes against five interceptions last season so that ratio is promising. But there isn’t enough evidence that Dart will become a Top 10 quarterback this season, either.

Defensively, pass rusher Brian Burns was a force last season with 16.5 sacks so imagine the damage New York could do if second-year pro Abdul Carter emerges as a double-digit sack artist too.

New York defensive backs had just six interceptions last season and the Giants had only nine as a team. Surely, becoming more opportunistic – like many Harbaugh teams – is a priority.

The Giants lost nine straight games at one point last season. Anybody think that will ever happen with Harbaugh coaching the team?

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Let’s watch and see how things unfold.

But this much is already clear: The New York Giants will no longer be laughingstocks.

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UFC 331 Underdog Pick: Why Brunno Ferreira Can Upset Edmen Shahbazyan

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Mar 7, 2026; Las Vegas, Nevada, UNITED STATES; Brunno Ferreira (blue gloves) reacts after the fight against Gregory Rodrigues (red gloves) during UFC 326 at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn ImagesMar 7, 2026; Las Vegas, Nevada, UNITED STATES; Brunno Ferreira (blue gloves) reacts after the fight against Gregory Rodrigues (red gloves) during UFC 326 at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images

Many feel the way that you have to bet on UFC is parlaying heavy favorites together, but underdogs win approximately 35% of the time in the world’s largest MMA promotion. Don’t be afraid to hunt for plus money.

Years ago, I developed a predictive model that uses in-fight stats and fighter attributes to simulate UFC fight outcomes — so long as the combatants had at least 30 completed octagon minutes or 5 total fights. I found that, in the UFC, moneyline favorites are usually overvalued.

How is that possible? Well, in a fight environment with as many variables per second as MMA, it’s hard to see the difference between -150 and -350 in real time. Great bets can lose. Terrible bets can win by lucky measures.

Every week, I’m going to give you my favorite underdog bet of the week. They’ll usually be showing value in my model, and I’ll explain their path to victory.

Here’s my favorite bit of plus money available for UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2

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Note: All fight odds come via Polymarket, the official prediction market of UFC.

Swaim’s Underdog of the Week: Brunno Ferreira (+160)

Model Odds: +110

Model’s Favorite Exact Outcome and Implied Odds: Decision (+440)

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In one of the most strange lines of a loaded card in Los Angeles, bettors (or traders) are pushing Edmen Shahbazyan toward a two-to-one favorite in a battle of extremely similar fighters. I don’t get it.

Shahbazyan is the more polished fighter from Xtreme Couture, one of the best MMA gyms in the world under head coach Eric Nicksick. In this same division, his teammate, Sean Strickland, has the belt. But, that’s also been the case for years as “The Golden Boy” has struggled to make his mark at middleweight.

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Shahbazyan’s 9-6 record is far from perfect, and his +0.19 striking success rate (SSR) is fairly flat. When fresh, the striker is long, fast, and dangerous. But he’s proven to have an expiration date in fights, most recently verified in a second-round loss to Gerald Meerschaert. “GM3” has gone on a five-fight losing skid since beating Shahbazyan.

Anytime the middleweight exerts himself early, it ends poorly. He’s gone to a cautious decision in two of his last three fights knowing this. All Brunno Ferreira might have to do here is force action and survive long enough to watch Shahbazyan fade.

“The Hulk” has certainly been good at that. He’s got a 1.63% knockdown rate, and 7 of his 11 UFC-affiliated appearances, including the Contender Series, ended in Round 1. Twice a victim in those scenarios, that’s probably the most dangerous round for him.

But, in deeper waters, Ferreira has proven his Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt is legitimate with submissions in two of his last five fights. A longer fight? Well, he outlasted former title challenger Marvin Vettori in one of those, too. If this isn’t a quick, clean kickboxing match, Ferreira seems to have a great chance.

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Anecdotally, the Brazilian has struggled at times with discipline and coming to fight week in the best possible conditioning. On a two-fight losing skid, he looked in outstanding shape at weigh-ins. I typically don’t factor in that hard-to-quantify noise, but I think it matters greatly for Ferreira, given his history and his entering a fight like this, where endurance could be a key factor.

The model’s verdict agrees with my assessment. It feels like Shahbazyan’s technique is really expensive when, at the end of the day, these are both powerful strikers with inconsistent defense, submission danger, and questionable gas tanks. I’ve got Edmen a slight favorite (52.5%), but it’s otherwise saying to flip a coin.

If this fight extends to Round 2, Ferreira should be in an excellent position to pull the upset.

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I don’t understand the glum face

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Former Manchester United striker Michael Owen expressed his surprise about attacker Marcus Rashford’s forlorn lock in the 1-1 Premier League draw at Fulham on Sunday (September 20).

Following a goalless first half at Craven Cottage, Lisandro Martinez’s own goal in the 63rd minute put the hosts in front before Matheus Cunha forced a share of the spoils for the Red Devils a minute from time.

Rashford, 28, started the game but couldn’t make much of an impact as he cut a largely isolated and frustrated figure up front. Owen explained the look on Rashford’s face (as per UF):

“I don’t understand the glum face. He just doesn’t seem to be enjoying his football. He is the weak link in the attack as things stand. He’s 28 now. He should be in his prime. He should be absolutely tearing defences down.”

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Rashford, back at Old Trafford after a productive loan spell at Barcelona last season, remains without a goal or an assist in six games across competitions this campaign.

He has played all five league games, starting four, and featured for 80 minutes in the 3-2 home defeat to Brighton & Hove Albion in the EFL Cup opener last week. The defeat marked United’s first at home in any competition in 50 years after taking a two-goal lead.


What’s next for Manchester United?

Fulham vs Manchester United - Premier League 2026/27 - Source: GettyFulham vs Manchester United - Premier League 2026/27 - Source: Getty
Fulham vs Manchester United – Premier League 2026/27 – Source: Getty

Following an underwhelming start to the new season, the pressure is beginning to mount on Manchester United head coach Michael Carrick, who has seen his side go winless in three games across competitions.

After a 1-0 Premier League home loss to 10-man Manchester City a week ago, the Red Devils slumped to a 3-2 EFL Cup home defeat to Brighton & Hove Albion in midweek before ending the week with a 1-1 stalemate at Fulham.

The Red Devils return to action after the extended international break with a home game against Tottenham Hotspur in the Premier League on October 10. Three days later, they travel to Atletico Madrid for their second UEFA Champions League league phase game of the season before travelling to Leeds United in the league on October 18.

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