Oddsmakers don’t expect the Minnesota Vikings to make much of a splash in 2026, predicting the purple team will finish last in the NFC North. But this week, Bleacher Report decided that Minnesota could be a surprise playoff contender, which jibes with most fans’ sentiment.

The Vikings signed Kyler Murray in the spring, and he could be the meal ticket for a trip to the postseason and perhaps the first playoff win since 2019.

Murray Gives Vikings’ Playoff Case a Swing Factor

BR: Vikings Could Be Surprise Contender

Five teams made Alex Kay’s list, and the Vikings were included. He explained, “With the addition of Jauan Jennings in free agency, Minnesota boasts perhaps the best receiving corps in the entire league. Whoever lines up under center will have a wealth of options at their disposal in Jennings, Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson and perennial All-Pro Justin Jefferson.”

“It remains to be seen if the team’s poor O-line can make some much-needed improvements, but the decision to draft Caleb Tiernan on Day 2 and sign veteran Ryan Van Demark in free agency at least gives the coaching staff more options to shuffle the deck with if necessary. There shouldn’t be any concerns surrounding Minnesota’s defense.”

The Atlanta Falcons, Las Vegas Raiders, New Orleans Saints, and Tennessee Titans also got some contender love from Kay.

“Brian Flores is one of the best coordinators in football, with his unit keeping the Vikings competitive despite a woeful offensive effort in 2025. The Vikings already ranked No. 7 in scoring and No. 3 in total defense last year and should only improve with five prospects selected across the first five rounds of the 2026 draft — headlined by first-round edge rusher Caleb Banks — joining the fray,” Kay continued.

“While the 2026 Vikings will still sink or swim based on the performance of the quarterback position, the rest of the pieces are firmly in place for the team to secure a third playoff berth in six seasons under O’Connell.”

What It Will Take

Here’s the blueprint for the Vikings to make Kay’s vision come to life:

• Healthy, productive quarterback performance and efficiency from Murray or J.J. McCarthy. The Vikings finished 9-8 last year while posting the league’s fifth-worst quarterback EPA/Play. They can win at least 10 games by improving just a little bit.
• No major defensive regression. Since Brian Flores strolled into the Twin Cities three years ago, Minnesota has ranked second in the NFL per EPA/Play. So long as they don’t dip outside the Top 10, the defense is enough for the postseason and could even win a Super Bowl.
• Running the football at a balanced rate — at least 45% of the time. Under Kevin O’Connell, that percentage is usually closer to 42%, not 45%, and the “small” variance matters.
• Get contributions from rookies. During the Kwesi Adofo-Mensah era, the Vikings failed to draft productive players, paving the way for older veterans to see playing time. Minnesota, with Adofo-Mensah removed, needs youth and speed. Playing 2026 rookies will help.
• Protect the football and limit penalties — Football 101.

That’s the rubric for a playoff-bound season.

Health Would Help

Of course, a season of good health won’t hurt anything. The Vikings navigated the 2025 season with McCarthy missing seven games and Wentz on injured reserve by November. The offensive line was supposed to feature Christian Darrisaw, Donovan Jackson, Ryan Kelly, Will Fries, and Brian O’Neill. That group hardly ever played at once.

Former Viking OLB Jonathan Greenard was on the shelf by December. And linebacker Blake Cashman missed his customary four games.

Sometimes, an NFL season feels like attrition — the teams that stay the healthiest get the farthest in the playoff tournament. Maybe that’ll be the Vikings for once.

A Brutal Division, Though

What’s stopping Minnesota from a universal forecast of prosperity? Its rivals in the NFC North. Gone are the days when fans could pencil in 3-4 wins against the Chicago Bears and Detroit Lions — long gone. In 2026, folks will hope the team merely splits those matchups, including the two games against the Green Bay Packers, who just never encounter down seasons.

There’s a reason some pundits call the NFC North the league’s most difficult. Pound for pound, every team has a chance to reach the postseason. In fact, every team might have a realistic path to the Super Bowl if everything comes together.

Easy wins against NFC North teams are dead. The Vikings must fight to avoid becoming the team that’s easily beaten in the division.

Dustin Baker is a novelist and political scientist. His second novel, The Invaders , is out now. So is … More about Dustin Baker