The 2026 WNBA regular season will come to a close Thursday with a five-game slate that includes critical games at both ends of the standings. While all eight playoff spots have long been locked up, only four teams are locked into their seeds and only one first-round series is set. And, in what you could easily argue is an even more consequential standings-related matter, the top odds for the No. 1 pick in the 2027 WNBA Draft are still up for grabs.
Here are the seeds already locked:
The only first-round series we know as of now is Lynx vs. Liberty, which will be a rematch of the 2024 Finals. The Nos. 2, 3, 5 and 6 seeds are to be determined, as are the 2 vs. 7, 3 vs. 6 and 4 vs. 5 first-round matchups.
Here’s a look at Thursday night’s schedule:
All times Eastern
Remarkably, every single remaining game matters in some way — even Tempo vs. Sun, which may be the most important of them all. Before the action begins, here’s a closer look at what’s at stake:
Valkyries vs. Aces for No. 2 seed
The Valkyries held the Portland Fire scoreless for the first 6:40 of their matchup on Tuesday and led 17-0, but collapsed and eventually lost in overtime. That result not only allowed the Minnesota Lynx to back into the No. 1 seed, but left the Valkyries with work to do to secure the No. 2 seed.
The Valkyries are one game up on the third-place Aces, but the Aces have the tiebreaker between the clubs after winning the season series 3-0. If the Valkyries beat the Sparks (they’re 11.5-point favorites), they will get the No. 2 seed and play the Wings in the first round, and the Aces would be the No. 3 seed. But if the Valkyries lose and the Aces beat the Mercury, the Aces would jump the Valkyries for the No. 2 seed and the Valkyries would fall to No. 3.
Fever vs. Mystics for No. 5 seed
Over the weekend, the Mystics crushed the Fever in a consequential victory that gave Washington the tiebreaker between the clubs. Now, there’s a chance that the Mystics could use that tiebreaker to jump the Fever for the No. 5 seed.
The Fever are one game up on the Mystics, and if they beat the Lynx in Minneapolis, they will secure the No. 5 seed and play the Dream in the first round. But if the Fever lose to the Lynx and the Mystics beat the Sky, the Mystics would take the No. 5 seed via the tiebreaker.
On paper, the Fever have a much tougher matchup, but they just beat the Lynx so badly that Cheryl Reeve waved the white flag at halftime. Plus, Olivia Miles will once again be sidelined with a calf issue and the Lynx no longer have anything to play for. No one else on the Lynx is on the injury report, but it’s hard to imagine the starters playing heavy minutes when the playoffs start in three days.
Sun need loss for best lottery odds
Playoff seeding and first-round matchups are incredibly important, but the Valkyries, Aces, Fever and Mystics are already in the postseason in a year where there’s incredible parity and have strong foundations for the future. The Sun and the Tempo, on the other hand, need a lot of help.
That makes Thursday’s matchup between two of the league’s worst teams arguably the most important game of the entire season. In fact, given the nature of the 2027 WNBA Draft, you could make a case this is one of the most consequential regular season games ever.
After eight consecutive playoff appearances, the Sun were forced into a total rebuild when their entire core and coaching staff departed ahead of the 2024 season. The last two seasons have been rough. They went 11-33 last season and are 10-33 this season, which will be their last in Uncasville before moving to Houston in 2027. All of the losing would be worth it, however, if they get the best odds at the No. 1 pick in the JuJu Watkins draft.
But somehow, the expansion Tempo may have something to say about that. The Tempo were not planning to tank this season and got off to a 9-9 start that had them in the playoff hunt near the midpoint of the season. But due in large part to an array of injuries, they’ve gone 2-23 since then and fallen to 11-32.
In an effort to combat tanking, the WNBA uses two-year aggregate records to determine lottery odds. But for the two expansion teams, the Tempo and Fire, the league will use only their records from this season, which is great news for Toronto and could add an extra layer of misery for the Sun.
Here are the different permutations from tonight’s matchup:
Tempo win
- Sun: 21-67 (.239 winning percentage)
- Tempo: 12-32 (.273 winning percentage)
Sun win
- Sun: 22-66 (.250 winning percentage)
- Tempo: 11-33 (.250 winning percentage)
If the Tempo win, it’s simple. The Sun would have a worse winning percentage and get the best odds at the No. 1 pick. If the Sun win, however, things get more complicated. In that scenario, both clubs would have a .250 winning percentage. In that case, the teams would have the same number of lottery combinations, essentially splitting the odds evenly, according to TSN. If the number of combinations is odd, a tiebreaker would determine which team gets the extra combinations. In the event of a Sun win, both teams would have the same record this season, which is the first tiebreaker. The second tiebreaker is season head-to-head between the teams, which Toronto has already won.
The league has not yet announced the new lottery odds now that there are seven teams involved (up from five last year). As such, it’s currently unclear just how much of an edge the Sun or Tempo would gain from having the best odds. It figures to be substantial, however, and both teams will be desperate to have a better chance at Watkins, who has the potential to transform a franchise, both on and off the court.
Clark vs. Thomas for the assist title
Outside of standings-related matters, the race for the assist title between Caitlin Clark and Alyssa Thomas is going down to the wire.
Clark led the league in assists as a rookie in 2024 at 8.4 per game, besting Thomas’ 7.9. Clark also set the single-season assists record that season with 337. Last season, however, Clark was limited to 13 games due to an array of injuries and Thomas took the crown. Her 9.2 assists per game led the league, and she set a new single-season record with 357.
Both have been healthy this season, but Thomas has played two more games and 140 more minutes than Clark, and she currently holds a 349-330 lead in total assists. Thomas needs nine assists in Thursday’s finale against the Aces to break her own single-season record, but the assists leader for the season is determined on a per-game basis.
On that front, Thomas holds a narrow margin: 8.512 assists per game to Clark’s 8.461 assists per game. It’s still possible for Clark to overtake Thomas with a big night, but the Fever must beat the Lynx on the road to secure the No. 5 seed, while the Mercury have long been eliminated from the playoffs. All that Thomas has left to play for is a new single-season assists record and this season’s assist title, and it will be far easier for her to hunt assists if she so chooses.
If Thomas wins the assist title, she’ll become the first player since Courtney Vandersloot (2017-21) to lead the league in assists in back-to-back seasons.
It’s also worth noting that there could be extra motivation for both players, given the infamous incident earlier this season in which Thomas put her fist on Clark’s throat and was retroactively assessed a Flagrant 2 foul and suspended for a game.
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