Bitcoin BTC$71,085.37 traded lower Sunday as geopolitical risks resurfaced after U.S. Vice President JD Vance said peace talks involving Iran held in Pakistan had failed.

But beyond the macro noise, crypto-specific drivers continued to point toward a potential move toward $88,000 and higher, though outcomes remain dependent on how broader risk conditions evolve.

Bullish flows

Starting with market flows, sentiment has remained constructive. Strategy, the world’s largest publicly listed bitcoin holder, said it purchased $330 million worth of bitcoin last week, lifting its total holdings to 766,970 BTC. Some estimates suggest Strategy’s STRC-related activity has added roughly 8,000 bitcoin so far this week.

If that wasn’t enough, U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs—widely seen as a proxy for institutional demand—recorded net inflows of $787 million this week, according to data from SoSoValue. That marks the strongest weekly inflow since early March. Since then, these funds have attracted nearly $2 billion in cumulative investor capital.

“These are not yet massive flows in absolute terms, but the direction and persistence matter: with MicroStrategy buying and ETFs absorbing supply, downside risk is structurally capped as long as these flows and the technical picture hold,” said Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, in a note to clients on Sunday.

Thielen’s base case is now a rally toward $88,000, driven not only by flows but also by oversold signals from technical indicators such as stochastic oscillators, along with improving risk appetite across related markets, including mining equities and broader equities.

Publicly listed miners such as TeraWulf (WULF), Bitdeer Technologies (BITDEER), and IREN Limited have climbed between 10% and 30% this month. Broader U.S. equities have also rebounded, with the S&P 500 rising 4%, while AI-heavyweights such as Nvidia gained around 6%.

“The recent performance of bitcoin miners, particularly those pivoting toward AI hosting, signals that the market is rotating back into the AI capex and growth theme, with Iran-related risk increasingly looking like a sideshow,” Thielen said.

“Taken together, this shifts our base case firmly to the upside, with $88,000 as our primary near-term target. The confluence is rare: technicals are constructive, flows are positive and broadening, and the market is demonstrating a clear willingness to look through geopolitical noise,” he noted,

Other widely tracked indicators of demand are also flashing supportive signals. For instance, the Coinbase Premium Index – which measures the price gap between bitcoin on Nasdaq-listed Coinbase and offshore exchange Binance – has climbed to 0.0586%, its highest level since October, according to data from Coinglass.

The move suggests relatively stronger buying pressure from U.S. investors compared with offshore markets, a dynamic often associated with bullish phases in crypto markets.

Clarity act

Matt Mena, senior crypto research strategist at 21Shares, said the potential passage of the Clarity Act later this quarter provides a “well-defined structural path” for further upside in crypto markets. The legislation, which aims to establish clearer jurisdictional boundaries between the SEC and the CFTC and to define when a digital asset is a security or a commodity, is widely viewed as a key regulatory milestone that could reduce long-standing uncertainty for bitcoin and the broader crypto sector.

Polymarket traders are currently pricing in a 65% probability that the Clarity Act will be signed into law this year. While the bill passed the House in July 2025, it is currently stalled in the Senate.

“With the potential passage of the Clarity Act later this quarter, the structural path for a significant expansion is well-defined. Reclaiming $73,000 clears the runway for a $75,000 test, which would likely provide the firepower for a rapid move through $80,000 toward the $90,000 corridor. Combined with a neutral inflation backdrop, a $100,000 milestone by the end of Q2 remains a possible outcome,” he said in an email.

Inflation and on-chain dynamics

On the macro front, recent inflation data came in broadly mixed but leaned softer on underlying pressures. The consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.9% month-on-month, lifting the annual rate to 3.3%, largely driven by a 10% jump in energy prices.

However, core CPI – which strips out food and energy – rose just 0.2% on the month and 2.6% year-on-year, both 0.1 percentage points below expectations. The print suggests that underlying price pressures remain contained even as headline inflation is distorted by volatile energy costs.

For markets, that distinction matters. If inflation continues to moderate beneath the surface, the Federal Reserve may be able to look through temporary energy-driven spikes and maintain a more flexible policy stance later this year. A steady or more accommodative rate path typically supports liquidity conditions, which tends to benefit risk assets such as equities and cryptocurrencies, including bitcoin.

Lastly, Vikram Subburaj, CEO of India-based FIU-registered Giottus exchange, pointed to supply dynamics which suggests prices are unlikely to face any resistance between $70,000 and $80,000.

“Supply distribution data indicates that only about 1 percent of circulating Bitcoin lies between $72,000 and $80,000. This suggests that a sustained break above current resistance could lead to relatively faster price discovery due to thinner overhead supply,” he said in an email.

Taken together, these factors suggest that while geopolitical risks continue to dominate headlines, underlying crypto market structure remains supportive of potential upside in bitcoin—assuming broader risk conditions do not materially deteriorate.

TLDR

• Robinhood shares slid 1.33% on Friday, ending the session at $69.19
• The brokerage is growing its prediction market offerings while eliminating certain high-risk contract categories
• “Mention Markets” contracts — wagers on specific words in public speeches — were discontinued due to abuse and manipulation risks
• The company collaborates with regulated U.S. platforms Kalshi and ForecastEx instead of crypto-based competitors like Polymarket
• CEO Vlad Tenev described prediction markets as the company’s “fastest-growing business ever” in 2025, with 12 billion contracts exchanged

Robinhood continues to scale its prediction markets operation, but the company is establishing firm boundaries around which contract types it will make available to traders.

Robinhood Markets, Inc., HOOD

The brokerage has eliminated specific event-based contracts from its offerings, particularly “Mention Markets” — instruments allowing traders to wager on whether certain words will appear in speeches or corporate earnings calls. According to Robinhood UK President Jordan Sinclair, these contracts were discontinued over concerns related to potential market abuse and insider trading vulnerabilities.

“We don’t necessarily offer all prediction markets or all event contracts,” Sinclair explained. “There are some we’ve chosen that aren’t right for our customers.”

This move arrives as prediction market platforms encounter heightened regulatory examination. Multiple prominent incidents have sparked concern throughout the sector.

Substantial, suspiciously-timed wagers emerged before a U.S. military operation targeting Iran. Israeli law enforcement brought charges against two people accused of exploiting classified defense intelligence to place bets. Trading volume also spiked prior to a Nobel Peace Prize reveal, prompting an official leak probe.

Beyond geopolitical events, a former editor associated with a popular YouTube channel paid a $20,000 penalty for wagering based on insider knowledge of unreleased video content.

These incidents demonstrate how prediction markets become vulnerable to exploitation when results depend on confidential information.

Choosing Compliance Over Decentralization

Robinhood has deliberately partnered with Kalshi and ForecastEx — both operating as regulated entities within the United States that mandate identity verification and comply with federal oversight frameworks. This approach contrasts sharply with Polymarket, which permits users to participate through cryptocurrency wallets requiring minimal personal verification.

For a publicly traded corporation, this strategic choice carries significant implications. Minimizing connections to unregulated platforms helps mitigate both legal exposure and potential damage to corporate reputation.

Robinhood views the prediction market sector as a substantial revenue generator. The firm projects approximately $300 million in annual revenue from this business line.

CEO Vlad Tenev characterized prediction markets as the platform’s “fastest-growing business ever” during 2025. Throughout that year, more than 12 billion contracts changed hands on the platform.

Tenev has additionally suggested the market might enter a “supercycle” phase, potentially reaching trillions in yearly trading volume eventually — though he provided no specific timeframe for such expansion.

HOOD Stock Performance on Friday

Robinhood’s stock decreased 1.33% during Friday’s trading, settling at $69.19.

Analyst sentiment toward the stock remains strongly positive. Aggregating 17 analyst assessments, HOOD holds a Strong Buy consensus rating. The mean price target stands at $106.20, implying a potential upside of 53.49% from Friday’s closing price.

Robinhood’s decision to discontinue Mention Markets comes after previous enforcement actions where individuals faced penalties for insider trading connected to comparable contract structures.

Ripple has issued another warning to the XRP community after a fake Instagram account appeared to impersonate Chief Executive Officer Brad Garlinghouse. 

The case added to a long list of social media scams that use Ripple’s name to target crypto users.

A fake Instagram account posing as Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has been flagged in a new warning to XRP holders. The account reportedly contacted users and promoted an XRP giveaway.

Ripple CTO Emeritus David Schwartz drew attention to the case on social media. He pointed to an older post from 2019 that described a similar message sent from an account pretending to be Garlinghouse.

The message followed a common scam pattern. It asked a user to send XRP first and promised to send back a larger amount later.

Schwartz made clear that the Instagram account was not linked to the Ripple CEO. His response served as a direct warning that the account was fake.

Crypto giveaway scams often copy the names and images of well-known figures. They usually promise free tokens and try to pressure users into acting fast.

In this case, the fake account used Brad Garlinghouse’s identity to build trust. It then pushed the false claim that users could receive more XRP after sending funds.

The warning also comes as deepfake videos and fake support accounts remain common across social media. Scammers often use these tactics to make fake promotions appear real.

Schwartz’s message repeated a point Ripple has made before. Any request to send XRP in exchange for a larger return should be treated as a scam.

Ripple repeats safety guidance to XRP community

Ripple has said in earlier notices that it will never ask users to send XRP. The company has also warned that fake livestreams, fake giveaways, and fake support channels are often used in fraud attempts.

Ripple has also stated that it does not operate an official Telegram channel. Any account claiming to represent Ripple there should be treated with caution.

The company has told users that its staff will not ask for wallet details, passwords, personal data, or payments through unofficial channels. That guidance also applies to messages that appear to come from executives.

The latest scam alert keeps that message in focus. Ripple employees, including Garlinghouse, will not ask users to send funds or join suspicious investment offers.

The crypto sector’s new Fellowship political action committee disclosed its first contribution ahead of the 2026 congressional midterm elections, and the $300,000 it spent went to a company co-founded by President Donald Trump’s former crypto adviser, Bo Hines — now chief executive of Tether US.

The Fellowship super PAC had advertised itself as a crypto campaign-finance juggernaut last year but hadn’t yet participated in the U.S. midterm elections until a new federal disclosure indicated it’s signed its first check. From the time the PAC was announced, the effort was reportedly tied to Tether, though the company declined to confirm the connection. On April 1, the PAC named Tether US executive Jesse Spiro as its chairman.

Days later, Fellowship quietly made its first expense filing to the Federal Election Commission, reporting that it bought advertising for Georgia Republican Clay Fuller through Nxum Group — a firm co-founded by Hines, father Todd Hines and a third partner. The PAC, which says it’s “rooted in transparency,” hasn’t responded to CoinDesk questions about its formation and funding, nor about the payment that may benefit the Tether US CEO and his relative.

Setting up a super PAC and paying yourself for services isn’t against U.S. campaign-finance rules, as long as the service is provided at appropriate market value, said Michael Beckel at political reform organization Issue One.

“There is no blanket prohibition on self-dealing when we’re talking about political committees like this,” he said in an interview. “The general rule is that services need to be rendered that are bonafide services — actual services — and those rates that are paid have to be fair-market rates.”

Fellowship’s advertising effort on behalf of House of Representatives candidate Fuller isn’t yet clear, apart from the disclosure the PAC made to the FEC that money was given to the advertisement provider for his primary election effort. The funds changed hands just as Fuller was winning his special election, according to the filing.

However, the PAC’s disclosures don’t yet demonstrate a stockpile of contributions to back other candidates, still showing its current accounts at zero, despite an announcement last year that it would be established with pledges of $100 million.

An outside spokesperson for Tether who was asked about the activity at Fellowship responded that Tether International has no affiliation or oversight over Fellowship PAC. The representative offered no response to additional questions about Tether US, deferring further inquiries to the PAC, which didn’t respond.

Tether ties

The PAC became active again only this month when it announced its chairman would be Spiro, the vice president of regulatory affairs for Tether’s U.S. arm. Fellowship also began listing endorsements for Republican politicians seeking House and Senate seats, plus a candidate for governor in South Carolina, Alan Wilson, on its feed at social media site X. The PAC said it’s backing advocates of emerging digital assets technology.

The Fellowship PAC “will begin actively supporting candidates aligned with this vision — leaders who recognize the importance of fostering economic growth and reinforcing the United States as the global leader in next-generation financial infrastructure,” it said in a statement, though Spiro didn’t respond to an attempt to reach him via social media.

The PAC’s first recipient of financial support, Fuller, is an incoming Republican member of the House of Representatives after he just won a special election to replace firebrand Marjorie Taylor Green. Even after that victory, the Georgia politician — not announced among Fellowship’s endorsements — will still need campaign support for the upcoming primary and general election in that state. The money spent by the Fellowship super PAC was an independent expenditure, meaning it had to be handled without strategizing with Fuller’s campaign.

As a candidate, Fuller hasn’t broadcast a position on crypto and doesn’t have a grade at Stand With Crypto, an advocacy group that evaluates candidates’ views. He does have the backing of Trump, who called him “a wonderful and talented man” in a post on Truth Social.

CEO’s old firm

The firm paid by Fellowship PAC, Nxum, included Bo Hines among its owners when he filed ethics disclosures last year as a White House official, working as a leading adviser trying to push crypto legislative advances. It’s unclear whether financial ties remain between Hines and Nxum.

There’s no federal record for Nxum as a regular service provider for additional political efforts. Before this, the company’s primary claim to fame was when it contributed billboard advertising valued at $1 million for MAGA Inc. in support of Trump in 2024. Less than two months after that, the White House hired Hines as executive director of the President’s Council of Advisers on Digital Assets. After less than a year in which he helped shepherd the 2025 stablecoin law, Hines left the president’s service to take a role at leading stablecoin issuer Tether, which was making a move into the U.S.

The PAC’s treasurer who signed off on its first spending, Mitchell Nobel, is an executive at Cantor Fitzgerald, a firm that manages assets for Tether’s global operation and was run by Trump’s secretary of commerce, Howard Lutnick, before he joined the administration.

When Fellowship was announced as a new PAC last year, it was presented as a contrast from previous political engagement. Without naming Fairshake, it said that unlike past efforts, it would be “defined by transparency and trust,” aimed to help the broader crypto ecosystem and not “narrow or individual interests.”

It’s possible that some or all of the promised $100 million is in the PAC’s coffers already, because federal disclosures typically trail significantly behind the movements of money. When any contributions are made public, they’ll identify the origins of the money, which must be from U.S. sources.

The relatively young Tether US’s stablecoin, USAT, has a market cap of about $37 million so far, suggesting the firm may not have the independent resources yet to fund a major PAC.

“Occasionally, those types of super PAC threats are paper tigers that never materialize,” said Beckel. “But we’re seeing in this day and age that massive spending by an industry is something that lawmakers are taking seriously and taking note of.”

The rival

So far, the amount the Fellowship PAC has spent is still a drop in the bucket compared with the receipts of the leading crypto super PAC, Fairshake.

The U.S. midterm elections are already well underway, with many of the hotly contested primaries already past or about to happen. Fairshake has expended millions in the early contests.

If the U.S. House is taken over by a Democratic majority (an 87% chance according to betting at Polymarket), the committees there will likely shift its agenda to challenge Trump’s legislative efforts and investigate the administration’s actions. Even the difficult lineup of races for Democrats to take the Senate has shifted toward better-than-even odds, suggesting the likelihood that the crypto industry will need a lot of friends from both parties.

It’s not too late for Fellowship to make a splash in a congressional field that’s likely to have major significance for future crypto legislation. So far, the PAC is focusing support only on Republicans, almost all of them said by political analysts to be in deep-red regions. If they win, they may face a challenging shift on Capitol Hill next year.

Read More: A $100 million crypto campaign fund with a pro-Trump vibe so far failed to show up

TLDR:

• On-chain researchers have flagged wallets consistently routing large ONDO batches to CEX deposit addresses.
  
• Binance, Gate, and Coinbase are the three centralized exchanges receiving the flagged ONDO transfers.
  
• The coordinated wallet routing pattern points to either a single entity or a group acting together.
  
• ONDO trades at $0.24, where increased sell-side pressure could test the token’s key support levels. 

ONDO, priced at $0.24 as of this writing, is drawing increased attention from on-chain researchers. A network of wallets has been identified consistently routing large token batches to centralized exchange deposit addresses.

Binance, Gate, and Coinbase are the three platforms receiving these transfers. The activity has prompted analysts to issue warnings directed at current ONDO holders.

This development is gaining traction across crypto trading and research communities.

Large ONDO Transfers Flagged Across Three Major Exchanges

On-chain researchers have identified a coordinated network of wallets moving ONDO in large batches. These wallets are consistently sending tokens directly to CEX deposit addresses.

The activity spans three major platforms: Binance, Gate, and Coinbase. Analysts describe the routing behavior as structured rather than coincidental.

Crypto analyst Dami-Defi brought this activity to public attention on X. The analyst stated: “On-chain researchers have flagged a network of wallets consistently routing large ONDO batches directly to CEX deposit addresses on Binance, Gate, and Coinbase.”

The post emphasized it as something every ONDO holder should be aware of. It gained rapid traction among traders and blockchain researchers alike.

When wallets route tokens to exchange deposit addresses, it often signals intent to sell. However, large holders sometimes use this process for repositioning or portfolio rebalancing.

The confirmed intent behind these transfers has not been established by researchers. No direct sell-off has been officially declared at this point.

What makes this activity stand out is its consistency and volume. Sporadic exchange inflows are common and generally dismissed.

However, a network of wallets acting in a similar pattern is a different matter. This behavior can eventually translate into visible supply pressure on the open market.

On-Chain Data Points to Structured Wallet Behavior Around ONDO

On-chain tracking tools now allow researchers to monitor wallet movements in real time. Identifying when wallets route to known CEX deposit addresses has become standard analytical practice.

This type of early visibility gives market participants actionable information. It remains one of the more dependable forms of blockchain intelligence available today.

The flagged ONDO wallets share a similar routing approach, which points to coordination. This pattern could indicate a single entity managing multiple wallets or a group acting together.

Researchers have not definitively confirmed either scenario based on available data. The structured nature of the transfers, however, continues to raise questions.

ONDO operates within the real-world asset tokenization sector, a growing area of blockchain development. The project has built a foundation around on-chain financial infrastructure.

Despite strong fundamentals, token prices remain responsive to large supply movements. Coordinated exchange inflows from multiple wallets can shift market sentiment noticeably.

At its current price of $0.24, any increase in sell-side activity could test ONDO’s support levels. Holders are encouraged to track exchange inflow data through reliable blockchain analytics platforms.

The situation remains fluid, and further on-chain monitoring is warranted. No confirmed sell-off has been reported, but the pattern merits continued observation.

Anthony Scaramucci urged Bitcoin investors to stay focused after the asset dropped into the $72,000 range. He said the recent sell-off changed market sentiment, but not Bitcoin itself.

SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci told the crypto community not to panic as Bitcoin faced fresh pressure. In a post on X, he said investors should not let price swings change their view of the asset.

He wrote, ”Bitcoin got us to $126,000. So now we feel terrible at $72,000.” He added that the asset remained the same even though emotions had shifted with the market.

Scaramucci said a holder who owned one Bitcoin before the rally still owned one Bitcoin after the drop. His message focused on separating short-term price action from long-term conviction.

He also warned against reacting to fear during periods of stress. His broader point was that investors should avoid making decisions based only on recent losses.

Bitcoin came under heavy selling pressure during weekend trading. The asset dropped sharply and touched a low near $71,349 after printing a large red candle early Sunday.

The move triggered widespread liquidations across the crypto market. Nearly 120,000 traders were liquidated within 24 hours, while losses reached almost $189.85 million over 12 hours.

Long traders took the largest hit during that stretch. Data in the report showed that leveraged long positions accounted for $132.80 million of the 12-hour liquidation total.

The sell-off added to the weak mood in the market. It also gave critics such as Peter Schiff another opening to question Bitcoin’s strength.

Bear market pressure remains

Scaramucci has already said the crypto market entered a bear phase earlier this year. He previously said the main issue was no longer whether the market had turned, but how long the pressure would last.

He also lowered his earlier Bitcoin cycle target from $170,000 to $150,000. That shift reflected a more cautious view as the market lost momentum.

Scaramucci pointed to what he called ”demographic tension” as one reason for the slower pace. He said crypto adoption still depends heavily on younger investors, while older capital tends to move more slowly.

Even so, his latest message remained clear. He told investors to ignore short-term noise, avoid excess leverage, and focus on the asset itself.

Ether Machine has ended its plan to go public through a merger with Dynamix Corporation. 

The move stops its proposed Nasdaq listing and puts its large Ethereum treasury plan on hold.

Ether Machine and Dynamix said they mutually agreed to terminate their business combination agreement. The company said it made the decision because of “unfavorable market conditions.”

The agreement would have taken the Ethereum treasury firm public through a merger with the Nasdaq-listed SPAC. The deal also involved The Ether Reserve LLC, which was part of the broader transaction structure.

Ether Machine had planned to launch what it described as a large yield-bearing Ether fund for institutions. The firm said it expected to begin with more than 400,000 ETH under management and list under the ticker ETHM.

That target was worth more than $1.5 billion when the company first outlined the plan. The canceled merger now stops that launch and leaves the fund strategy without the public market debut it had expected.

A filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission said a “Payor” listed in Annex A must pay $50 million to Dynamix. The payment must be made within 15 days after the termination became effective.

The filing did not publicly name that party. Dynamix now has until November 22, 2026, to complete another business combination or return trust funds to shareholders under its charter.

Ethereum treasury pressure builds

The canceled deal comes as other Ether treasury strategies also face pressure. Trend Research has exited its Ethereum position after selling 651,757 ETH worth about $1.34 billion and recording an estimated loss of $747 million.

ETHZilla has also moved away from its Ether accumulation strategy. The company changed its name and brand to Forum Markets after earlier pivoting from biotech to an Ethereum treasury model during the 2025 rally.

The ripple effects of geopolitical conflict are reshaping the plumbing of global trade finance, pushing some commodity traders out of the banking system and into the arms of stablecoins.

That’s according to Luke Sully, CEO of trade finance-focused stablecoin issuer Haycen, who says the war involving Iran has heightened compliance fears among Western banks, triggering a fresh wave of “debanking” across commodity markets.

“Since the war, banks are further retreating from certain commodity flows,” Sully told CoinDesk in an interview.

“We spoke with some commodity traders who are getting debanked now,” he added.

The $2 trillion market

The concern centers on counterparty risk.

Banks worry that seemingly legitimate transactions, say, involving firms in Oman or other regional hubs, could have indirect exposure to sanctioned Iranian entities. Rather than take the risk, some institutions are stepping back entirely.

The result is reduced access to traditional rails in a sector that is already largely financed outside of traditional banking.

Trade finance, a roughly $2 trillion market for international trade transactions, has increasingly been dominated by non-bank lenders, including private credit funds that finance the movement of commodities and goods globally.

“Everybody thinks they know about trade finance, but they don’t,” Sully says. “It’s predominantly non-bank investment funds lending to borrowers around the world to move goods and services.”

These lenders provide critical liquidity, often earning annualized returns of around 15%, and enable transactions such as shipping helium from Qatar to South Korea or manganese from South Africa to Indonesia.

But they rely on banks for settlement and payment rails, relationships that are now under strain.

Stablecoins, digital tokens pegged to fiat currencies, typically the U.S. dollar, are emerging as a key workaround. In particular, Tether’s USDT has seen growing adoption among commodity traders and counterparties operating in emerging markets.

These cryptocurrencies have rapidly evolved from a niche crypto trading tool into one of the fastest-growing segments of global finance, with total market capitalization surpassing $300 billion in 2025 after roughly 50% annual growth.

Transaction volumes have surged even faster, exceeding $4 trillion in 2025 and now accounting for around 30% of all onchain activity, underscoring their growing role as a medium for cross-border payments and dollar access in emerging markets.

Tether’s dominance

Once primarily used within crypto markets, stablecoins are increasingly being adopted for real-world use cases, from remittances to trade settlement, driven by their speed, global liquidity and ability to bypass traditional banking rails.

One such stablecoin is Tether’s USDT, which is currently dominating the flow.

“Tether is soaking up a lot of the payments flow,” Sully says. “If you want to make a one-time payment into an emerging market, USDT is helping.”

The appeal is straightforward: deep global liquidity and widespread acceptance.

“There is so much global USDT liquidity that people don’t mind sending or accepting it as payment,” he added, “because someone in their country will eventually swap it for dollars.”

That growing familiarity is also shifting perceptions.

Still, Sully frames this trend as a workaround rather than a long-term solution. “This is more of a workaround for these people than a solution for trade finance in general.”

‘A different problem’

The geopolitical backdrop is also producing more extreme signals.

Sully pointed to reports that bitcoin BTC$71,432.52 is being used as a “currency of choice” for payments tied to safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments.

“It shows that trade finance is increasingly being led and managed by non-bank actors and non-bank ways of transacting,” Sully says.

Haycen is positioning itself to capture this shift. The firm issues a U.S. dollar-backed stablecoin, USDhn, designed specifically for trade finance.

According to Sully, “Haycen aims to be the liquidity and settlement layer for non-bank global trade and is currently working with industry participants around the world.” The goal is to streamline a highly fragmented system.

Haycen’s model allows users to deposit funds, transact using its stablecoin, and potentially earn interest, subject to regulatory eligibility, while avoiding the delays and inefficiencies of correspondent banking.

“Funds don’t get lost for seven days. You can log in, see your deposits and counterparties in one place, and settle instantly.”

Unlike most stablecoin issuers, which focus on crypto trading or retail payments, Haycen is targeting a specific institutional niche. “Every other stablecoin business is a payments business or a crypto trading business,” Sully says. “We’re solving a different problem.”

That problem, how to move money efficiently in a fragmented, increasingly de-risked global trade system, may only grow more acute as geopolitical tensions persist.

Ironically, Sully notes, banks’ retreat could accelerate crypto adoption faster than the industry itself ever managed.

Read more: Banks are treading carefully on stablecoins despite market growth, S&P Global says