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CPI Data Countdown: Why the April 10 Print Is Make or Break for Bitcoin’s $75K Push

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CPI Data Countdown: Why the April 10 Print Is Make or Break for Bitcoin’s $75K Push

Bitcoin is consolidating just below $70,000 with one scheduled event this week capable of breaking the pattern in either direction: the March CPI print dropping April 10 at 8:30 AM ET. The binary is clean, if U.S. inflation data comes in soft enough to shift Federal Reserve language toward cuts, BTC $75K becomes an immediate technical target; if core CPI stays sticky above 0.3% month-over-month, the “higher for longer” scenario reasserts itself, and the path of least resistance points back toward $60,000–$62,000.

The Cleveland Fed’s nowcast – built on late-March data – projects a 0.84% monthly headline surge driven by gasoline prices up 26.2% year-over-year and diesel up 50.4%. That reading, if confirmed, would mark a sharp acceleration from February’s 0.27% headline and would effectively freeze any Federal Reserve pivot conversation through at least mid-summer. Macro crypto trading desks are already pricing two radically different worlds into options flow. Thursday’s print decides which one we’re in.

Bitcoin’s $75K Level: Full Technical Breakdown and Price Scenarios

Bitcoin Price Prediction: Reclaim $75,000 or Retreat to $60,000

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(Source – BTC USD, TradingView)

Bitcoin is currently rangebound between $65,000 and $71,000, a compression zone that has held for several weeks and is coiling into what chart structure suggests is a decision point. The $73,700 level above is the immediate overhead resistance; above that is the $75,000 psychological ceiling, which has acted as a load-bearing level since BTC’s last failed breakout attempt.

A weekly close above $75,000 on CPI-driven volume would be the first structural confirmation that the bull case is intact.

RSI on the daily is sitting near 53 – neutral, not oversold, which means there’s no technical floor being built from momentum exhaustion alone. The 200-day EMA is converging with the $67,500 support zone, making that level load-bearing in the near term. A daily close below $67,500 opens the door to $62,000, where significant order book depth and prior accumulation structure sit. MVRV ratio remains below 1.5, suggesting the market hasn’t reached the euphoria zone – but that also means on-chain buying pressure isn’t yet dominant enough to generate self-sustaining momentum.

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The bull case requires a CPI-triggered risk-on move through $71,000, then a reclaim of $73,700 on sustained volume, with $75,000 as the confirming close. The bear case activates on a hot print: a rejection at $71,000 that cascades back through the 200-day EMA and targets the $60,000–$62,000 whale accumulation zone. For traders already holding, the downside scenario below $66,000 deserves serious risk modeling before Thursday. The single most important level: $71,000. Hold it post-print and the bull case lives. Lose it and $62,000 becomes the next anchor.

Why the April 10 CPI Print Resets the Fed Timeline – and Bitcoin’s Ceiling

The Bitcoin CPI relationship isn’t incidental – it’s mechanical. CPI drives Fed rate expectations, rate expectations drive the dollar and treasury yields, and dollar strength directly compresses institutional appetite for risk assets, including BTC. February’s CPI landed at 2.4% year-over-year with core holding at 2.5% annually for the second consecutive month, driven by shelter costs rising 0.2%. That stickiness kept “higher for longer” as the dominant Fed posture heading into April’s data cycle.

The threshold that matters for a Federal Reserve pivot signal is a core monthly reading at or below 0.2% – anything above 0.3% entrenches current policy and delays the first cut. CME FedWatch currently prices fewer than two cuts for 2025, a dramatic repricing from the four-cut consensus that opened the year. Energy is the wild card: the Cleveland Fed’s nowcast is being driven almost entirely by gasoline and diesel spikes, and the Fed has historically looked through volatile energy components when assessing underlying inflation trends. If headline runs hot but core stays controlled, traders may interpret that as a conditional green light.

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March payrolls added 178,000 jobs, with unemployment holding at 4.3% – a labor market that doesn’t scream imminent recession and therefore gives the Fed cover to hold. The April 10 U.S. inflation data release won’t just move Bitcoin on the day; it will recalibrate the entire rate-cut timeline that institutional crypto positioning is built on.

(Source – CoinGlass)

Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows from BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC have shown direct sensitivity to CPI beats and misses – a hot print tightens that inflow tap immediately.

The post CPI Data Countdown: Why the April 10 Print Is Make or Break for Bitcoin’s $75K Push appeared first on Cryptonews.

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Polymarket to rebuild engine, launch native dollar stablecoin

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Polymarket banned in Argentina after regulatory probe

Polymarket will rebuild its core engine, introduce a hybrid CLOB, and launch Polymarket USD, a USDC‑backed stablecoin on Polygon aimed at cheaper, more institution‑friendly trading.

Summary

  • Prediction market Polymarket plans its “largest infrastructure upgrade” in the next 2–3 weeks, overhauling its matching engine and smart contracts.
  • The upgrade will introduce a new hybrid CLOB model and a native stablecoin, Polymarket USD, pegged 1:1 to USDC on Polygon.
  • The changes aim to cut gas costs, boost efficiency, and make the platform friendlier to institutions via EIP‑1271 and multi‑sig support.

On‑chain prediction market Polymarket will roll out what it calls “the largest infrastructure upgrade since its launch” in the coming 2–3 weeks, rebuilding its core trading engine and debuting a native dollar stablecoin, Polymarket USD, according to plans shared with The Block. The company said the overhaul will “completely reconstruct” its matching engine via a new CTF Exchange V2 smart‑contract system, while introducing a native stablecoin pegged 1:1 to USDC to replace the current bridged USDC.e on Polygon. Existing order books will be cleared during the migration, with Polymarket promising to give users at least one week’s notice before maintenance begins.

At the heart of the upgrade is a redesigned Central Limit Order Book that uses a hybrid model of off‑chain order matching combined with on‑chain, non‑custodial settlement. In technical documentation for its CTF Exchange, Polymarket describes the architecture as a “hybrid‑decentralized model” where an operator handles off‑chain matching while settlement remains on‑chain, a setup it says optimizes “performance and security” for high‑volume event markets. The Block reports that CTF Exchange V2 will introduce new matching logic and order‑data structures intended to improve matching efficiency and reduce gas costs for traders.

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Polymarket has grown into one of the largest fully on‑chain prediction venues, recently drawing hundreds of millions of dollars in liquidity and a $600 million strategic investment from Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) as part of a broader bet on decentralized betting markets. ICE said its combined $1.6 billion of direct and secondary investment is not expected to be material to its financial results but positions the exchange operator as a key backer in what it calls a “David and Goliath battle” to bring prediction markets into the financial mainstream.

On the asset side, Polymarket USD formalizes a shift already underway in partnership with Circle to move from bridged USDC.e to native USDC on Polygon for all trading, order placement, and settlement. Circle has said native USDC, redeemable 1:1 for US dollars through its regulated entities, offers a “capital‑efficient” and more secure alternative to bridged tokens by eliminating cross‑chain bridge risk and tying collateral directly to its reserves. In line with that, Polymarket USD will be pegged 1:1 to USDC and used as the core collateral across the platform, with deposits from networks such as Ethereum, Solana, Arbitrum, and Base automatically converted into the new stablecoin on Polygon.

Polymarket will also add support for the EIP‑1271 (ERC‑1271) standard, allowing smart‑contract wallets such as Safe to validate signatures and trade directly, a move aimed at “expanding use cases for institutions and advanced users.” EIP‑1271 lets contracts define an isValidSignature method with arbitrary logic, making it easier for DAOs, funds, and multi‑sig setups to participate in non‑custodial markets without relying on externally owned accounts. The upgrade comes as competition in prediction markets intensifies, with Polymarket using performance, native dollar liquidity, and institutional‑grade wallet support to defend its lead in what it brands “The World’s Largest Prediction Market.”

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Bitcoin Profit Takers Keep BTC Price Action Away From $70,000 Reclaim

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Bitcoin Profit Takers Keep BTC Price Action Away From $70,000 Reclaim

Bitcoin found familiar resistance as it crossed the $70,000 mark to hit new April highs, with analysis blaming “profit-taking pressure.”

Bitcoin (BTC) coiled below $70,000 at Monday’s Wall Street open as analysis blamed profit taking for price inertia.

Key points:

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  • Bitcoin and stocks wobble as the US trading session begins amid nerves over the US-Iran war outcome.

  • Profit taking activity is keeping BTC price action away from a $70,000 reclaim, says research.

  • A Trader says $71,000 will act as fuel for a surge $10,000 higher.

BTC price meets “profit-taking pressure”

Data from TradingView showed BTC price action consolidating after hitting new April highs of $70,275 on Bitstamp.

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Market nerves over the US-Iran war resulted in uncertain trading, with US stocks treading water at the open.

Speaking to the media at a military event, US President Donald Trump reiterated earlier comments that Iran would “have no bridges” and “no power plants” unless a deal was reached.

“I won’t go further because there are other things that are worse than those two,” he told reporters.

Trump previously stated that the deadline for a deal was 8pm Eastern time on Tuesday.

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With price pinned below the $70,000 mark, onchain analytics platform Glassnode pointed to internal market forces as the reason for the lack of continuation higher.

“As price probed the $70K region, Realized Profit/hour spiked above $20M, signalling a local exhaustion,” it noted in a post on X

“A pattern consistent since February 2026: Every approach to the $70k–$80K band meets thin liquidity and profit-taking pressure, capping the bounce.”

Bitcoin realized profit chart. Source: Glassnode/X

Pseudonymous trader LP added that Mondays and Thursdays had seen the upper and lower end of the week’s trading range throughout 2026.

“Price pushed higher into Monday, increasing the probability of this pivot forming a weekly high. If the correlation continues to play out, this would suggest Thursday forms the low of the week,” they told X followers. 

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“Watch price action closely today and tomorrow, it will confirm whether this intra-week pivot resolved as a high or a low.”

BTC price chart. Source: LP/X

Bitcoin trader eyes $71,000 springboard

Continuing, crypto trader Michaël Van de Poppe said the line in sand for bears lay slightly higher than Monday’s current peak.

Related: First real bull signal since 2025? Five things to know in Bitcoin this week

“Pretty strong momentum on the markets of Bitcoin,” he wrote on X about the initial move to $70,000. 

“Volatility picking up, and I think it’s fireworks during this week as we might be getting to the end stage of the entire situation in the Strait of Hormuz. If Bitcoin breaks $71K, then markets are in for a test at $80K.”

BTC/USDT one-day chart. Source: Michaël Van de Poppe

Van de Poppe further cautioned on following blanket market consensus over new lows coming next.

“Given that all the markets are so oversold at this point, all on-chain indicators are looking overextended and are at similar levels to the bottom areas in 2018, 2020 and 2022, I wouldn’t be surprised that we’re getting a relief run that’s going to turn the sentiment quickly,” he concluded.