As Indian equity markets delivered modest returns in 2025 compared with stronger gains in global markets, the debate around portfolio diversification has moved sharply into focus. With currency depreciation, evolving global growth drivers, and transformative themes like AI, defence, and quantum computing reshaping investing opportunities, sticking to a purely domestic strategy may no longer be enough.

In this context, a balanced approach that combines home market familiarity with global exposure is becoming increasingly relevant. Speaking to Kshitij Anand of ETMarkets, Subho Moulik, Founder and CEO of Appreciate, explains why a 70:30 India–global portfolio can help investors improve risk adjusted returns, reduce concentration risk, and participate in the world’s most powerful long term growth trends in a rapidly changing global landscape.

Kshitij Anand: If you look at the data for 2025, the Nifty delivered around 10%, while US markets were well ahead with returns of about 16%. Do you think some Indian investors may have felt they missed the rally? And if you look at returns in dollar terms, which are slightly worse for Indian investors, what are your views on that?

Subho Moulik: If you are an Indian investor with no diversification, you essentially saw your portfolio go up by about 10%, while the US market delivered almost double that when you include currency, roughly around 22%. The rise in US portfolios is not a one year story. If you look at the past few years, they have been bumper years for US investors.For full disclosure, my portfolio is about 70 to 80% global and around 20% India. And of course, we are in the business of democratising global investing, so I do have a bias. But if you look at the numbers, it is a very rational decision for Indian investors to allocate money not just to India, but also globally.

On timing, I think there is still plenty of room left in the rally. Historically, the average bull market since World War II lasted about seven to eight years. There have also been bull markets that ran for as long as 15 to 16 years. The current bull market is well short of those durations. No one knows when a bull market will end. Anyone who claims they do, well, best of luck to them. I certainly do not know. But if you look at historical averages and current fundamentals, there should still be room for this bull market to continue.So, I do not think timing is the issue. The real question is about themes. What are you investing in, and why you did not diversify earlier. Let me ask you a question. We are all aware of the Nifty 50. If I told you the Nifty 50 exists, but you can only invest in two Nifty 50 stocks for the rest of your life, how would you react?

Kshitij Anand: In that case, I think that may have worked two decades ago, but things are changing now. No company survives indefinitely, and even within the Nifty 50 there is constant churn. If I take your point, yes, if I pick a Nifty 50 stock today, there is always a possibility it may not be part of the index six months down the line.

Subho Moulik: Exactly. If someone told you there are 50 stocks, but you can only invest in two, your first reaction would be why would I only invest in two stocks? You would want more choice. This ties back to the point you made earlier. India is a very important market from a future perspective, but it still represents only about 4%, or even less, of the global market. Therefore, as an investor, the rational choice is to think about diversification. How to allocate capital in a way that improves returns while reducing overall risk. That is what investors should be doing.

I do not think timing is an issue at all. In fact, if there is a sudden crash, say something completely unexpected happens in the next month and markets correct sharply, that would be a fabulous time to buy.

Kshitij Anand: Absolutely. We have seen that happen multiple times in the past.

Subho Moulik: Exactly.

Kshitij Anand: In fact, there is another dilemma Indian investors might be facing. In terms of GDP growth, India is likely to deliver around 7% in 2026–27, while global growth is expected to be around 2.5 to 3%. However, the scale of the economy differs significantly between the US and India, and even a 2.5 to 3% growth rate for the US is considered quite strong. Still, many Indian investors tend to focus on the headline numbers, 7% versus 3%. Could you help investors understand how to translate this into portfolio decisions, especially when investing abroad?

Subho Moulik: I will address that. This comparison is a fallacy, a red herring, and I will explain why. When you invest in the US, you are not investing only in US focused or US centric companies. Let us take an example from beverages. Whether or not you believe that the beverage market in India will grow rapidly, let us assume for a moment that it grows in line with GDP. It is a mass consumer segment and should broadly follow the economic cycle. Now, who do you think benefits from the growth of India’s beverage industry?

Kshitij Anand: US companies.

Subho Moulik: Coca Cola and Pepsi.

Kshitij Anand: Pepsi, and they are all US based companies.

Subho Moulik: Exactly. They are all based in the US. So, when you invest in US stocks, you are not necessarily investing in the US economy. Today, most global multinationals are listed in the US, and therefore, investing in US markets is effectively a bet on global growth.

What investors should increasingly think about is which sectors to invest in and where the global leaders in those sectors are located. To continue with the beverage example, if you believe beverages are a compelling investment theme, the global leaders in that space are listed in the US. If we move to a more realistic example, the leaders in semiconductors, companies like Nvidia, are also listed in the US. The leaders in genetics are largely in the US as well, with some presence in Europe and China. In defence, the dominant players are again largely US based. In emerging areas like quantum computing, which could become as exciting as, or even more exciting than, AI, there is once again a strong presence in the US and China.

So, while India has strong growth prospects, as an investor you already carry significant home country risk. You live in India, your home is in India, and your job is in India. From a portfolio perspective, diversification is important so that if something goes wrong domestically, at least part of your investments is insulated.

Another important point is how different markets react to shocks. Twenty years ago, if the US market moved up by a certain amount, India would usually follow. Over time, the correlation between the two markets has been declining, and we expect this trend to continue. That actually increases the benefits of diversification.

Finally, there is also the comfort of investing in markets where the rule of law is well established and investors have confidence in capital protection and repatriation. So, the real question is not about 2% GDP growth versus 7% GDP growth. The real question is where are the pockets of the highest growth in the world, and how can investors access them?

Kshitij Anand: Absolutely. In fact, I recall the saying: if the US sneezes, India catches a cold. If you correlate that here, earlier any movement in the US used to impact India. That has not been true recently because much of the rally has been driven by DIIs rather than FIIs. FIIs have taken a bit of a backseat, and DIIs are running the show. But yes, if you go back five to seven years, you could definitely say that if the US sneezed, India caught a cold. So, when you talk about the bull run and say there is plenty of room left, can we say the party continues on Wall Street as well, and not just on Dalal Street?

Subho Moulik: If you look at the current US bull run, there are a couple of common fears. One is that a large portion of returns has been concentrated in seven, eight or ten stocks; second, that forward earnings multiples are at all-time highs, making the market look bubbly and frothy; and third, that this is all speculation and will come crashing down. Let me address these one by one.

I do not think the data supports the view that the US market is becoming more concentrated. On a relative basis, if you look at gains over the last three years, 2025 was the lowest in terms of concentration. The Magnificent Seven contributed about 55% of gains in 2023 and around 42% in 2025, which shows a declining trend. You may still ask why seven stocks contribute around 40% of gains, but that is because these companies are expected to drive disproportionate disruption through what they are doing.

The second concern is about valuations. The S&P 500 is trading at around 22x forward earnings, while the Magnificent Seven trade at about 29–30x forward PE. The historical peak has been closer to 40x, so we are still below those levels. Another important point is that a few years ago, small caps—represented by the Russell 2000—were not delivering returns. That has now changed, and the Russell 2000 has delivered reasonable returns. It typically underperforms the S&P 500 slightly and does not suffer from the same concentration issues.

So, I think economic performance is much more broad-based than what headlines suggest. Clickbait headlines are easy to consume, but deeper analysis often gets missed. That does not mean returns are perfectly democratic across all 5,000 stocks, but around 500–600 companies are delivering returns. Unlike episodes such as the Tulip bubble or the dot-com bubble, there are real earnings backing this rally. One can debate the quality of earnings or whether there is circularity among a few players, but these are real earnings driven by disruptive technology, particularly AI.

If you look at what is emerging—the combination of quantum computing, expanding AI use cases, and even progress towards viable fusion energy—each of these reinforces the other. There is an energy challenge, a computing power challenge, and a question of how quickly AI use cases can become real. As these factors interact, a very interesting virtuous cycle could emerge, though it may or may not play out.

Because of this, I am less worried about an imminent collapse of the bull run. Even if the bull market ends due to a black swan event—say China invades Taiwan, another pandemic emerges, or some other unforeseen crisis occurs—markets will crash. No one predicted COVID before it happened. Black swans are, by definition, unpredictable.

But even in such scenarios, the right approach is to buy the dip. Dumb money buys at the peak; smart money buys on corrections. If you are fortunate enough to have cash during a market crash, invest it. A 25% correction is a good opportunity. Do not try to time the exact bottom—buy the dip.

Kshitij Anand: Another fear in the minds of Indian investors is currency risk. We have just touched 90 against the US dollar and are hovering around that level. There are headlines asking whether we are heading towards 95 or even 100. How should investors think about this?

Subho Moulik: It is very hard to fight basic economics. There will continue to be an inflation differential for some time. Even when the US was concerned about inflation, it was around 4%. The Fed will continue to focus on keeping inflation in check. India’s inflation is likely to remain higher, and as long as there is an inflation differential—and therefore an interest rate differential—I do not see the currency moving in any direction other than gradual depreciation.

If there were a structural economic shift where inflation and interest rate differentials reversed, then currencies would move the other way. I do not think that is likely over the next decade, though I could be wrong. Over the past three decades, the pattern has been consistent, and the next decade is likely to follow a similar trend. A 3–5% annual currency depreciation is quite plausible.

This is why I keep coming back to the point of diversification. Do not limit yourself to a narrow set of choices. Of course, back your own economy—you understand it well and there are many good opportunities in India—but do not put all your eggs in one basket. Diversify.

Diversification also gives you access to sectors that simply do not exist in India, not because there is anything wrong with India, but because markets develop differently. Whether it is AI, defence, genetics, rare earths, or exposure to regions like Latin America, there are many themes where India has limited or no exposure. I can name 40 such themes.

By diversifying globally, you get exposure to the themes you believe in and also reduce the impact of currency depreciation. If you look at historical data over the past 20 years, a simple allocation of 70% India and 30% global equities—pure equity, not debt—would have outperformed either market individually. That is because of better risk-adjusted returns and lower correlation. When one market suffers a shock, the portfolio holds up better.

The reasons to diversify keep piling up. The biggest hurdle is inertia.

Kshitij Anand: And the first step is to start doing it.

Subho Moulik: Exactly. Start doing it. Kshitij, what is your global exposure?

Kshitij Anand: My global exposure; well, it is not that much.

Subho Moulik: So, less than 10%?

Kshitij Anand: Absolutely, less than 10%.

Subho Moulik: Then you need to move closer to 30%. After this, we can talk about how to do that. If you look at the average Indian investor’s portfolio—say, someone invested in Indian mutual funds or stocks—the average international exposure is probably less than 1%. So, there is a massive opportunity simply to reach a basic level of diversification.

Kshitij Anand: One point you mentioned earlier was the concentration of the rally. Another concern Indian investors often have is the lack of research available beyond the Magnificent Seven. How can investors address this gap and gain confidence to invest in US small and mid caps, especially when even Indian markets sometimes lack adequate data?

Subho Moulik: I have three responses to that. First—and I will briefly plug what we do, since it is relevant—if you use an app that specialises in global stocks, like Appreciate, you get access to analyst ratings such as buy and sell calls, consensus views, financial ratio snapshots, and stock-specific news and perspectives. The US is a data-rich market. If you go to the right partner, app or platform—and we are one of the leading providers of global stock access—there is a wealth of information available, much more than in India, because the market is more mature.

Second, before you start actively trading, it is better to begin with broad-based bets. For example, you could invest in an index like the S&P 500 or take sector-level exposure. Before saying, “I have enough conviction to buy stock X and sell stock Y,” it makes sense to start with index or sectoral investments, which are easier to understand and form a view on.

Third, and this is something we plan to launch in the coming financial year, is AI-based investing advice and automated transactions. We are building a research engine with zero human analysts—completely AI-driven—that pulls insights from anywhere between 5 and 32 sources, monitors markets 24×7 (often in real time), distils that information, and provides recommendations that can be executed automatically. Investors can opt into such a plan, monitor performance, and continue only if they are comfortable. This is entirely optional. We believe we will be among the first Indian players to offer truly AI-based portfolios, and this will increasingly become another avenue for investors.

So, there are multiple ways for people to educate themselves. You can take a highly sophisticated route or a simpler one, but lack of information should not be a barrier.

Kshitij Anand: That is a smart approach, because lack of information and apprehension about where to start often keeps investors away. Most people only know a handful of global companies; Pepsi, Coke, as you mentioned, or the Magnificent Seven. Beyond that, unless a company makes headlines in Reuters or other global media, it tends to stay off the radar. It is good that you mentioned AI, because my next question is about that. Has the AI story moved from narrative to earnings?

Subho Moulik: Let us break the AI story into three parts: the infrastructure required for AI, general-purpose use cases, and AGI, or artificial general intelligence. The infrastructure story is very real. Data centre build-outs, energy consumption, and chip manufacturing are all happening at scale. Right now, this infrastructure is being built to support use-case development, and as those use cases see wider adoption, usage will increase, further driving infrastructure demand. Most of the earnings-driven value creation so far has been on the infrastructure side.

In terms of use cases, some are already seeing broad adoption, especially content-related applications. For example, AI-generated videos and creative content are becoming mainstream, and creative companies are increasingly exploring how to use these tools. As a small example, a large portion of advertising content today is already AI-generated.

Then there is AGI, which depending on who you listen to, is either imminent within the next five years, far away, or imminent but manageable. The debate there is more about governance and safeguards. Markets are not really pricing this in yet, because it is almost impossible to predict the timeline or outcomes.

So, there is a fair amount of reality in the AI story. The key question is whether a quarter of weaker-than-expected performance, due to slower scaling of use cases or a temporary dip in infrastructure demand, derails the theme, or whether investors look through it, recognising that this is a long-term, disruptive technology. In my view, AI is here to stay.

Kshitij Anand: AI is here to stay, that is…

Subho Moulik: AI is here to stay. Now, what form it will take, I do not know. I think we will see various avatars, no pun intended, over the next 2, 3, 5, 7 or even 10 years. If you think about it logically, and I may sound a bit philosophical here, if we take the idea of diversification and apply it to humanity as a planet, our best bet is to diversify onto other planets. I do not think we get there without some level of AI in space and related technologies. So, there are multiple reasons why I see AI continuing to evolve.

Another area where AI is clearly here to stay is defence. It is a genie that has been let out of the bottle and is not going back in. We are likely to see more autonomous systems and weapons of various kinds, and there is no reversing that trend. So, space and defence are other key use cases—some driven by utilitarian or altruistic motives, and others, quite frankly, driven by the objective of maximising efficiency in warfare because that is where money is made.

Kshitij Anand: You mentioned Elon Musk, and his companies have also diversified into India—Tesla is now in India. And in fact, most US companies are diversified not just into India but across the globe. That is really the core point. That is what makes them special, and that is why investing in US markets is not just a bet on the US, but on global growth.

Subho Moulik: That is right.

Kshitij Anand: Another theme that has been getting a lot of attention from investors is Trump’s policies, especially on tariffs. Could that derail the US bull market story?

Subho Moulik: I think tariffs are primarily being used by Trump as a negotiating tool. This is not crystal-ball gazing; it is quite evident. As negotiations progress, the extreme tariffs, like 300% tariffs, tend to get walked back, and what remains is a more reasonable, lower-level tariff regime. I think that is likely to persist.

People and companies are also adapting. Supply chains are being reconfigured. Earlier, companies manufactured where it was cheapest—Mexico, China, or elsewhere. Now, when they look at landed costs including tariffs, they reassess and move production accordingly. In some cases, production may return to the US; in others, it may shift to different locations.

I do not think inflationary effects from tariffs have fully played out yet. As they do, that itself becomes a pressure point for tariff rationalisation, because inflation is a very sensitive domestic issue. Tariffs have not turned out to be the market destroyer many feared, largely because each time markets approached a tariff cliff, Trump often stepped back and extended timelines. That is consistent with his style, announce something drastic, then revise it. Markets have learned to partially price this in and then wait for clarity.

So, I do not see tariffs as a doomsday scenario. Over time, tariffs are more likely to come down, especially if they start feeding meaningfully into inflation. There are also legal challenges in the US questioning whether tariffs have been imposed through entirely legal mechanisms.

Kshitij Anand: For investors, the key takeaway is not to focus only on headlines but to look deeper. Tariffs are there, but as you said, they need not dominate investment decisions in US stocks. Another geopolitical concern that has come up is the recent military action in Venezuela. There could be more such events. Does that hurt the US investment story?

Subho Moulik: There are multiple geopolitical flashpoints, Ukraine, Israel, Iran, parts of Africa, Venezuela, and potentially Taiwan. Among these, Taiwan is uniquely sensitive because of its role in global semiconductor supply and existing defence commitments. In most other cases, history shows a short-term disruption, usually a week or so, after which markets stabilise.

There are always winners and losers. I am not commenting on the legality or morality of actions, it has happened. Some companies lose, some gain. From a market perspective, the net impact is usually limited. In conflicts involving energy, oil companies tend to benefit. Defence companies almost always benefit. As long as shipping and logistics are not severely disrupted, markets move on.

Taiwan is the exception. But broadly, despite political turbulence and debates, such as discussions in the US around executive powers—markets tend to look through these events. As strange as it may sound, most of these developments turn out to be non-events from a market perspective.

Kshitij Anand: Absolutely. Even historical data suggests that. Now, let us move to specific sectors. We have spoken about AI, and investors have already made significant gains in AI-led sectors, as well as in clean energy and healthcare. Are there specific sectors you believe investors should focus on in 2026 and beyond, from a long-term perspective?

Subho Moulik: I will start with the more pessimistic view and move toward the optimistic. Defence spending is going to rise globally, as a percentage of GDP. I would invest in defence. I would also invest in space. Defence companies will increasingly look at space-related opportunities, not just launch systems but allied businesses. Space is a compelling long-term theme.

AI remains interesting, perhaps a bit bubbly, but still compelling. I am also very bullish on quantum computing. To put it in perspective, it took about 30–35 years to go from supercomputers to personal computers. I believe the first quantum supercomputers could emerge within the next 10 years. That implies that over the next half century, we could potentially see quantum personal computers. That would be a game changer in processing power and applications. The last time fundamental physics translated into real-world applications on this scale, it changed the world, think transistors or nuclear technology.

Energy is another major theme. Rare earths are in focus because of their importance to renewables like solar. Hydrogen could be a disruptive force. Fusion energy, though longer-term, could reshape the entire debate around energy generation. Whether these innovations come from new energy companies or existing ones reinventing themselves is an open question, but energy remains a very interesting space.

Healthcare and life sciences are equally exciting. Drug discovery timelines are collapsing due to AI and computational advances. We are likely to see more biosimilars and breakthrough therapies. Longevity science is advancing rapidly, there are already claims that someone alive today could live to 300. Treatments for Alzheimer’s, obesity, and other conditions are evolving at an unprecedented pace.

Much of this progress comes from deep, foundational scientific research that eventually leads to these breakthroughs. Which countries will lead that research? Will the US continue to maintain its edge? These are important questions. But in the near to medium term, these are the sectors I would focus on.

Kshitij Anand: The next question usually revolves around choosing between global ETFs and individual stocks. How should one take that call?

Subho Moulik: As I mentioned earlier, ETFs have a lot going for them. They give you sectoral or index exposure, they are relatively low-cost, and they allow you to invest in a basket of stocks in an efficient and inexpensive way. I would definitely say that global ETFs are far better than Indian mutual funds that invest in global ETFs, because the expense ratios tend to be much higher in the latter. It is usually better to own global ETFs directly.

Between ETFs and stocks, it really comes down to how comfortable you are making individual stock bets versus investing in a basket or a theme. It depends on your confidence level as an investor and where you are in your investment journey. Typically, I would suggest having a mix—some ETFs and some individual stocks. There is no magic formula.

Kshitij Anand: Absolutely, a mix-and-match approach works well. Also, there are certain barriers Indians face when investing in the US. How is Appreciate tackling those challenges? You spoke about data availability and how the app makes it seamless for Indian investors to make informed choices, with rankings and easy transactions for buying and selling.

Subho Moulik: Let me address that. First, we have worked very hard to simplify onboarding. This is a regulated space, so Appreciate is a registered broker-dealer with integrations across multiple banks. We go through rigorous information security processes, audits, and compliance checks, and we partner with trusted global brokers to ensure safety.

All investments are covered by SIPC insurance in the US—up to $500,000—not for market losses, but for broker or custodian failure. Assets are held with a custodian, not by us. So safety and trust are key pillars. We also partner with mainstream banks and operate within a fully regulated framework. These are basic hygiene factors.

Onboarding itself is very simple—PAN, Aadhaar, and basic profile information. While we ensure all regulatory requirements are met, the process typically takes about two minutes before you can start investing.

On remittances, we know how painful the traditional process can be, filling out A2 forms, visiting bank branches, submitting documents, and answering queries. By the time all that is done, the stock you wanted to buy may have already moved significantly, and the opportunity—and excitement—is gone.

Kshitij Anand: And the excitement is gone as well.

Subho Moulik: Exactly. What we enable is seamless, fully digital remittance that happens quickly. From the investor’s perspective, there is ample research available on the platform. We are also introducing AI-based recommendations, which we discussed earlier. Essentially, we remove the operational friction so that you can focus on portfolio performance and investment decisions, and leave the rest to us.

We also make tax compliance easy. You can download everything you need for tax filing and share it with your CA. We try to eliminate all the usual stress points so that investors can focus on making the right decisions.

Kshitij Anand: You mentioned upcoming sectors earlier. How is Appreciate helping investors identify or track these themes? Is there something within the app that allows investors to go overweight on certain emerging sectors?

Subho Moulik: We are doing this in two ways. First, we are launching access to global thematic portfolios. We scan global markets and work with some very interesting asset managers, evaluate past performance, and curate a set of around 30–35 thematic portfolios. These cover themes such as energy, AI, genetics, country-specific themes, and commodities versus equities.

These will be available at the beginning of the new financial year. Investors can choose from these themes, or even request a bespoke portfolio, provided they meet a minimum investment threshold.

Second, we are launching AI-based recommendations with automated execution. The idea is simple—no individual investor can realistically track 30-plus data sources, monitor real-time markets, interpret signals, and execute trades continuously. Our AI engine does exactly that, delivering a package of automated buy and sell decisions. Investors simply authorise participation in the programme and then assess performance. If they are comfortable, they continue; if not, they can opt out.

We believe these two offerings are strong differentiators, allowing investors to use their time more effectively—deep-diving into areas of interest and leaving the rest to us.

Kshitij Anand: Another concern for investors is regulatory compliance and taxation. How does Appreciate make that seamless?

Subho Moulik: From a compliance perspective, we are very strict about being fully compliant. We are a SEBI-registered investment adviser, a registered broker-dealer, and we are launching our own payment service provider to enable fully regulated remittances. We comply with all relevant Indian and US regulations, and investor assets are protected under SIPC insurance.

We work with leading banks in India and have undergone extensive due diligence, so this is a safe, mainstream, and well-regulated space—not a fringe asset class.

On taxation, we provide a simple solution. With the click of a button, you can download your complete tax package and hand it over to your CA. That makes the process very seamless.

Kshitij Anand: Absolutely. All of this helps Indian investors step out of their comfort zone and invest beyond borders. Any advice for investors heading into 2026?

Subho Moulik: I will take a cue from your first question. It is never too late to make the right investment decision. If you are already investing, you are doing something positive for your financial health. The question is how to make it better.

I strongly believe in a 70–30 portfolio—keep 70% in India, which you understand well, and allocate 30% globally. If you are unsure how to do this, you can come to Appreciate, reach out to us on social media, or even use another platform. The key point is diversification.

After diversifying, focus on disciplined investing. Very few individual investors successfully time the market. Invest regularly and focus on buying during corrections, which add far more value in the long term than chasing rallies.

Do not worry too much about timing. Systematic investing works. As you gain confidence, you can start taking sectoral or specific stock bets—but not necessarily at the very beginning. We have published several articles on this, and as you know, a diversified portfolio with systematic investing delivers better outcomes over time.

Do not rely on tips, they do not work. Focus on fundamentals, whether you are investing in India or abroad.

Kshitij Anand: Whether India or abroad.

Subho Moulik: Exactly. Stay the course, and you will be fine.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times.)

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Shares of Alignment Healthcare Inc. surged more than 18% in morning trading Tuesday, climbing to $22.13, up $3.46 or 18.53%, on heavy volume as investors piled into the Medicare Advantage specialist amid renewed optimism about its differentiated care model, strong membership expansion and improving profitability in a sector facing reimbursement pressures.

The Nasdaq-listed stock (ALHC) broke out sharply by late morning on April 7, marking one of the strongest single-day gains in recent months and pushing the year-to-date performance solidly positive. The rally lifted the company’s market capitalization above $4 billion, reflecting renewed confidence in its ability to deliver robust growth while navigating the complex Medicare Advantage landscape.

Alignment Healthcare operates a tech-enabled Medicare Advantage platform that emphasizes personalized care, lower medical loss ratios and integrated services designed to improve outcomes for seniors. The company has consistently posted impressive membership gains, reporting 31% year-over-year growth to approximately 275,300 members as of Jan. 1, 2026, following a strong annual enrollment period. It has guided for year-end 2026 membership between 290,000 and 296,000, representing 24% to 27% growth.

Analysts and investors appear to be rewarding the company’s execution after a period of caution following the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services’ preliminary 2027 rate proposals, which came in lower than many expected. Despite broader sector headwinds, Alignment has highlighted its ability to maintain high Star ratings — with 100% of members in plans rated 4 stars or higher for the second consecutive year — and its reputation as one of the 2026 Fortune World’s Most Admired Companies in its first year of eligibility.

In its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results released Feb. 26, Alignment beat the high end of guidance across key metrics. Revenue reached $3.95 billion for the year, up 46.1% from the prior year, while the company produced positive free cash flow on a full-year basis for the first time. The fourth-quarter loss narrowed to $11 million, with adjusted EBITDA showing clear progress toward profitability.

“Alignment Healthcare is taking a positive step forward in profitability,” CEO John Kao said at the time, emphasizing the strength of its integrated care model even as larger rivals pulled back from certain markets. The company has expanded its footprint while many competitors retreated, capitalizing on demand for high-quality Medicare Advantage options.

Wall Street has taken notice. The consensus rating remains a solid Buy, with an average price target near $23 to $25, suggesting further upside from current levels. Firms such as Piper Sandler, JPMorgan and KeyBanc have highlighted the company’s membership momentum and operational efficiency. Some forecasts point to adjusted EBITDA of approximately $145 million for 2026, within the company’s guided range of $133 million to $163 million.

The Tuesday surge lacked an obvious single catalyst in real time, but traders pointed to a combination of factors: the expiration of certain lock-up agreements around April 1 that had previously restricted insider and affiliate sales, continued positive sentiment around Medicare Advantage normalization, and anticipation ahead of the company’s upcoming presentation at the BofA Securities Health Care Conference on May 13.

A secondary offering announced in early March by an affiliate of General Atlantic — involving roughly 13.2 million shares — created temporary overhang, but the lock-up expiration appears to have cleared the way for fresher buying interest without immediate selling pressure.

Alignment’s business model sets it apart in the crowded Medicare Advantage space. The company uses proprietary technology, data analytics and a physician-led approach to manage care more effectively, aiming for better member satisfaction and lower costs. Its plans emphasize whole-person care, including benefits that address social determinants of health, chronic condition management and preventive services.

High Star ratings translate directly into quality bonus payments from CMS, providing a meaningful revenue tailwind. Alignment has maintained strong ratings across its markets, helping it attract and retain members even in a competitive environment.

Q1 2026 results are expected around late April or early May, with guidance calling for membership between 281,000 and 285,000, revenue of $1.21 billion to $1.23 billion, and adjusted EBITDA of $26 million to $36 million. Investors will watch closely for any updates on medical benefits ratios, which the company expects to trend modestly lower in the first half of the year.

Broader industry dynamics have been mixed. Medicare Advantage enrollment continues to grow nationally as baby boomers age into the program, but plans face ongoing scrutiny over utilization trends, prior authorization practices and reimbursement adequacy. Alignment has positioned itself as a nimbler player capable of delivering value where larger insurers sometimes struggle with scale-related inefficiencies.

The stock has shown significant volatility since going public in 2021 but has delivered substantial returns for long-term holders, with some reports noting gains exceeding 400% from 2024 lows into early 2026 before periodic pullbacks. Tuesday’s move recaptured some of that momentum.

Options activity and trading volume spiked during the session, indicating heightened interest from both retail and institutional investors. The breakout above recent resistance levels near $20 could signal technical strength if buying sustains.

Risks and Outlook

Challenges remain. Alignment is still not consistently profitable on a GAAP basis, and heavy investment in growth and technology continues to pressure near-term margins. Regulatory changes, shifts in CMS policy or unexpected spikes in medical costs could impact results. Competition from giants like UnitedHealth, Humana and CVS Health’s Aetna remains intense.

Yet bulls argue that Alignment’s focused model — centered exclusively on Medicare Advantage rather than diversified insurance lines — gives it an edge in execution and innovation. The company’s emphasis on technology-driven care coordination has helped keep its medical loss ratio competitive while delivering high member satisfaction.

Alignment Healthcare, founded with a mission to transform senior care, operates primarily in select markets across California, North Carolina, Nevada, Arizona and other states, with plans to expand thoughtfully. It employs a team dedicated to value-based care principles.

As trading continued Tuesday, the stock tested levels not seen since earlier in the year, with some analysts suggesting the move could mark the start of a fresh leg higher if upcoming earnings reinforce the growth narrative.

For investors, the rally underscores the appeal of high-growth names in health care that demonstrate operational momentum amid an aging U.S. population. With millions more seniors expected to join Medicare Advantage plans in coming years, companies like Alignment that combine technology, quality and scale are well-positioned.

The company will present at the BofA conference in mid-May, offering management an opportunity to update investors on progress toward 2026 targets and longer-term ambitions.

Whether Tuesday’s surge proves sustainable will depend on execution in the coming quarters, but for now, Alignment Healthcare has captured Wall Street’s attention with a breakout performance that highlights its potential as a standout player in one of health care’s fastest-growing segments.

The Competition Appeal Tribunal has ruled that the Welsh Government’s £205m subsidy plans for Cardiff Airport are legal

The Welsh Government has seen off a legal challenge from Bristol Airport over plans to provide £205m of subsidy support to Cardiff Airport. The ruling is a major boost for the Rhoose-based airport as it seeks to expand its passenger numbers and grow non terminal related activities such as aviation training and attract more maintenance, repair and overhaul investment.

Following a two-day Competition Appeal Tribunal hearing in February Bristol Airport’s claim that the subsidy support to the Welsh Government-owned airport breached the Subsidy Control Act has been rejected in a judgment.

The Welsh Government, which has already released the first tranche of £20m of subsidy support to the airport, has welcomed the decision in a ruling from the tribunal chaired by Ben Tidswell.

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Bristol unsuccessfully claimed, in a case brought against Welsh Government ministers, that the subsidy, planned over ten years, breached the the Subsidy Control Act on four grounds, including taxpayers’ money shouldn’t be provided to prop up what it described as an ailing business .

It also argued that the funding represents unprecedented state support for a UK airport and would put it at a commercial disadvantage relative to its nearest rival.

On the issue of Cardiff Airport being a going concern, the judgment said: “The tribunal held that the respondent had considered the question expressly and had rationally concluded that CIAL (Cardiff International Airport) was not ailing or insolvent, principally because the extended standby credit facility (ESCF) provided liquidity support and ensured CIAL remained a going concern.

“The tribunal rejected Bristol’s argument that the ESCF should be disregarded, and found no irrationality in the respondent’s inquiry or conclusion.”

It also rejected Bristol’s claim that providing subsidy support to airlines to fly new routes out of Cardiff Airport was uncompetitive. Around half of the £205m has been earmarked to attract new airlines to Cardiff, but not for routes currently operated by Bristol.

The judgment concluded: “The tribunal held that none of the four grounds of challenge were made out. Accordingly, the appeal failed and the application for a declaration, quashing order and recovery order was dismissed.”

Following the judgment the Welsh Government said: “We welcome the competition appeal tribunal ruling that our investment in Cardiff Airport is lawful and can continue on its current terms.

“From the outset we recognised the huge potential of the airport to deliver significant additional benefits for the people and economy of south Wales.

“The leadership team at the airport will continue to deliver the economic objectives set out in our investment strategy. With a more certain future following the determination of the tribunal, we look forward to seeing the airport build on recent successes, including securing the new WestJet route from Cardiff to Toronto and to deliver even more services and attract more business and job opportunities to the region.

“The airport, which recently celebrated a 9% growth in passenger numbers for last year, is looking forward to its busiest summer flying programme in many years, and we very much hope to see both Cardiff Airport and Bristol Airport continue to thrive and grow.”

A spokesman for Bristol Airport said: “The competition tribunal heard significant concerns about the unprecedented £205m subsidy, which comes on the back of £181 million of taxpayers’ money that Cardiff Airport has already received. The subsidy will see Welsh taxpayers forking out around £71 for every single additional passenger flying out of Cardiff Airport.

“We’re disappointed that the tribunal feels that despite the burden being put on the taxpayer, the flexibility given by the Subsidy Control Act introduced after Brexit means that the subsidy can proceed. We’ll now take some time to study the decision in detail before deciding on our next steps.”

Bristol wouldn’t comment on whether it plans to appeal the ruling. The Welsh Government is now likely to seek recovery of its legal costs of around £2m.

Cardiff Airport achieved a near 10% rise in passengers last year but still remains well below its pre-pandemic level.

The airport welcomed 963,000 passengers in 2025, up 9% on 2024, with a 4% rise in air traffic movements. The airport said the increase was supported by significant growth from Ryanair and TUI. Cargo volumes, supported by a new base from European Cargo, experienced a 7% increase .

It is also continuing to invest in route development, with further new services planned for this year and 2027. Prior to the pandemic it handled 1.6 million passengers in 2019.

LOS ANGELES — Los Angeles Lakers guard Austin Reaves has been diagnosed with a Grade 2 left oblique muscle strain, sidelining the 27-year-old for the remainder of the 2025-26 regular season and casting serious doubt on his availability for the start of the NBA playoffs, dealing a major blow to a team already missing co-star Luka Dončić.

Reaves is expected to miss four to six weeks, according to multiple reports citing league sources. That timeline would keep the versatile scorer out through at least the early portion of the postseason, with the first round scheduled to begin April 18. Some medical experts suggest the recovery could stretch longer if rib cartilage is involved, while the minimum for a Grade 2 oblique strain is typically around three weeks.

The injury occurred during the Lakers’ lopsided 139-96 loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder on April 2. Reaves appeared to tweak his left side while reaching for a rebound in the first half but returned to finish the game, logging 27 minutes and scoring 15 points. He and Dončić, who suffered a Grade 2 hamstring strain in the same contest, both played through visible discomfort in what became a blowout defeat.

Lakers coach J.J. Redick later defended the decision to keep both players in the game, but faced criticism for potentially exacerbating the injuries in a non-competitive matchup. Reaves underwent an initial MRI in Dallas that reportedly scanned the wrong area, prompting a second imaging session on April 4 that confirmed the oblique strain. Redick expressed frustration with the diagnostic process, noting the Lakers had clearly specified the target area.

Reaves, often called “AR-15” by fans, has enjoyed a breakout 2025-26 season as one of the Lakers’ most reliable performers. Through 51 games, he averaged 23.3 points, 4.7 rebounds, 5.5 assists and shot 49% from the field while playing 34.5 minutes per night. His scoring, playmaking and clutch shooting made him a vital complement to LeBron James and the newly acquired Dončić in Los Angeles’ revamped lineup.

The double blow of losing both Reaves and Dončić for the final stretch of the regular season has left the Lakers scrambling. The team announced Reaves would miss the remaining five regular-season games, with the finale set for April 12 against Utah. Los Angeles has already made roster adjustments, including a reported $18 million move to bolster depth amid the injury crisis.

Medical Outlook and Recovery Timeline

Sports medicine specialists describe oblique strains as particularly painful due to the muscle’s proximity to nerves and rib attachments. A Grade 2 strain involves a partial tear, with recovery complicated by the constant torso rotation required in basketball. NBA data shows less severe oblique injuries average about 17 days missed, while higher-grade cases can sideline players for up to nine weeks. For Reaves, the consensus projection of four to six weeks places his potential return somewhere in the first or second round of the playoffs — assuming the Lakers advance.

Dr. Evan Jeffries and other injury analysts have noted that rushing back too soon risks reinjury, drawing comparisons to similar cases like Luka Dončić’s current hamstring issue. Conservative management is expected, with Reaves focusing on rest, targeted rehabilitation and gradual return-to-play protocols under the Lakers’ medical staff.

Reaves has a history of playing through minor ailments, but this marks one of the more significant setbacks in his young career. The undrafted guard out of Oklahoma has steadily evolved into a cornerstone for the Lakers since joining the league in 2021, earning praise for his toughness, basketball IQ and improved three-point shooting.

Impact on Lakers’ Playoff Hopes

The injuries come at a precarious time for Los Angeles. With Dončić already ruled out for the rest of the regular season and Reaves now joining him on the sideline, the Lakers must lean heavily on veterans like LeBron James and a supporting cast that includes role players stepping into larger minutes. Questions swirl about seeding, matchup advantages and whether the team can build enough chemistry without its two leading scorers.

Analysts describe the situation as “devastating” for playoff aspirations. Even if Reaves returns in late April or early May, he may require ramp-up time to regain full explosiveness and conditioning. The Lakers’ depth will be tested in what could be a grueling first-round series.

Reaves’ absence also complicates long-term roster planning. He is eligible for a significant contract extension or new deal in the coming offseason, with some projections linking him to a $241 million maximum-level agreement. His injury performance this season has only heightened his value, but any prolonged recovery could factor into negotiations.

LeBron James publicly expressed disappointment over the injuries to both Reaves and Dončić, highlighting the emotional toll on the locker room after what had been a promising stretch.

Broader Context and Lakers’ Response

The Lakers have faced a season of highs and lows, including the high-profile acquisition of Dončić that reshaped expectations. Now, with key pieces sidelined, the focus shifts to resilience and opportunistic play from the supporting cast. Coach Redick has emphasized staying connected and preparing for every scenario as the team eyes a playoff berth.

Reaves has remained positive in public comments, expressing confidence in his teammates and a commitment to returning as strong as possible. He is expected to travel with the team and stay engaged in meetings and film study during rehabilitation.

NBA observers note that oblique injuries can be unpredictable, but modern sports science — including advanced imaging, regenerative therapies and individualized rehab programs — often helps players return closer to the optimistic end of timelines.

For now, the Lakers must navigate the final regular-season games and prepare for the postseason without two of their top offensive weapons. Whether Reaves can suit up for a deep playoff run remains uncertain, but his track record of toughness suggests he will push to rejoin the lineup at the earliest safe opportunity.

The injury has sparked widespread discussion across NBA circles, with fans and analysts debating the decision to play both stars in a blowout and the broader implications for Los Angeles’ championship window. As the calendar turns toward the playoffs, all eyes will be on Reaves’ recovery progress and the Lakers’ ability to adapt.

Austin Reaves, a fan favorite known for his underdog story and clutch performances, faces his toughest test yet. Lakers supporters hope the “Hillbilly Kobe” can once again defy the odds when he returns to the court.

Ford is recalling more than 422,000 vehicles in the U.S. over a windshield wiper failure, federal regulators said on Tuesday.

The recall includes Lincoln Navigator and Ford Expedition SUVs, as well as some F-series trucks, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) said. Specific vehicles that may be involved include the model year 2021-2023 Lincoln Navigator, 2021-2023 Ford Expedition, and the 2022-2023 Ford Super Duty.

A total of 422,613 vehicles are subject to the recall, while the share of vehicles with the defect is estimated to be 3% of the recalled vehicles.

Windshield wiper arms may operate erratically or may break, causing the wipers to fail, according to NHTSA.

FORD RECALLS MORE THAN 83,000 VEHICLES OVER HEADLIGHT, ENGINE VALVE ISSUES

The safety agency noted that there may be a warning for drivers that the windshield wiper may fail, as drivers “may experience erratic wipe speed of the driver or passenger wiper arm.”

“An improperly functioning or detached wiper arm may impair driver vision, increasing the risk of a crash,” NHTSA’s description of the defect said.

“The windshield wiper arm’s latch retention plate may have been incorrectly staked at the supplier. The latch retention plate keeps the arm head properly seated to the wiper arm. Additionally, the engagement between the knurl and wiper arm may be reduced due to dimensional variability. Proper knurl-to-arm head teeth engagement ensures robust wiper arm operation,” the agency said.

FORD RECALLS 1.74 MILLION VEHICLES DUE TO REARVIEW CAMERA BLACKOUTS, ISSUES

Production improvements at the supplier in December 2022 addressed issues that led to the defective wiper arms, which is why the recall is limited to vehicles made in a specific timeframe.

NHTSA’s recall report said that Ford isn’t aware of any accidents or injuries related to the wiper issue.

NHTSA said that the notification to dealers was expected to occur on April 1, with the mailing of notices to interim owners expected to begin on April 13 and be completed by April 17.

FORD RECALLS MORE THAN 615,000 VEHICLES OVER WIPER, DRIVESHAFT DEFECTS

Owners of potentially affected vehicles were expected to be able to search VINs as of April 1.

Ticker	Security	Last	Change	Change %
F	FORD MOTOR CO.	11.54	-0.07	-0.56%

The remedy for the issue is expected to include an inspection of windshield wipers and their potential replacement.

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Wiper arms that don’t pass the inspection will be replaced. The replacement wiper arms that are used in this process will be made with correct staking of the latch retention plate, and wiper arm splines within specifications, according to NHTSA.

Reuters contributed to this report.