Makerfield is the constituency on everyone’s mind. The by-election, set for 18 June, is a fork in the road moment for the Labour government, as it gives the prince over the water – the proclaimed ‘King of the North’ Andy Burnham – a chance to cross over and take the crown. But Reform UK too have it firmly set in their sights, and as one Tory put it to me: “If you could design a model seat for Reform, this is it.”

Yet there is another by-election on the very same day: Aberdeen South, where voters will replace Stephen Flynn, who has swapped Westminster for Holyrood as an SNP MSP. Here the Tories stand a chance at electoral victory after a strong showing during the recent Scottish Parliament elections – and the message from the Conservative Party will be simple: ‘Vote Reform, get the SNP.’

The twin by-elections have unleashed a fresh discourse: should there be some sort of electoral pact with Reform? The option has been floated by two Conservatives – one current MP, one former MP – as a way of consolidating the right and holding back Burnham, whom they regard as disastrous for the economy.

Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg, the former Tory business secretary, suggested to The Telegraph that the parties “work together” as it is a “golden opportunity for the right to unite” and give Labour “a nasty surpise”.

The longest-serving MP, father of the House Sir Edward Leigh, similarly proposed that the Tories not field a candidate in Makerfield, but in return for Reform not standing in Aberdeen South.

“If doing some kind of deal means we can win Aberdeenshire and save the Union, it’s worth doing. If in any by-election there are two Right-wing parties fighting each other … there will be Left-wing victory,” he said.

As one Conservative MP on the right of the party told me of the Tories and Reform UK: “Aren’t we all conservatives?”

In terms of numbers, if what you want is an elected representative of the right, then yes it could make sense. Combine Reform’s votes with the Tories in Makerfield at the last general election and you’re just over a thousand votes short of Labour (they got 18,202 to a combined 17,182 of Reform and the Tories), and that is before the Labour government blew up. At the Holyrood elections, where Stephen Flynn stood, he just about scraped through with the SNP on 11,788, the Tories on 10,544, and Reform on 6,113. Again, combine the two and there you would have a unionist representative.

But is that really the answer? It is one thing for members of the public to choose to vote tactically – they can look at the previous results in Makerfield and decide that if they once voted Tory they will vote Reform to secure a win on the right – but it is quite another to impose a reduced choice on them.

And, according to our latest ConservativeHome members survey, it doesn’t seem like the sort of thing that would go down well with Conservative Party members, the majority of whom said that at the local elections they voted for the party they usually support – not tactically. Our survey had 56.7 per cent of respondents supporting that, and only 6.44 per cent saying they voted tactically to either stop another party winning or support the option who stood a better chance. They clearly want the option of their party.

As one shadow cabinet minister told me: “We are a national party and everyone should have the option and ability to vote for a Conservative candidate.”

Both Kemi Badenoch and Conservative Party members can then be reassured that they appear to be on the same page. She has ruled out any deals with Nigel Farage, branding such arrangements as “stitch up nonsense” by political parties “that are too lazy to just get on and select people and win on their own account”.

She added: “We will be standing a candidate at this election. Everybody should compete and the people of the constituency should make their choice about who it is they want to represent them.” Under a month to go until that choice is made.

The post Our Survey: Could Conservatives bring themselves to vote tactically or back a pact? appeared first on Conservative Home.

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The MAGA takeover of the Georgia GOP is nearly complete.

The old-guard of the Republican Party in Georgia has fallen after withstanding MAGA’s furor since 2020, replaced by a new breed of candidates — up and down the ballot — closely aligned with President Donald Trump.

On Tuesday, the Trump allies marched on: Trump-backed Lt. Gov. Burt Jones clinched a spot in the gubernatorial runoff on Tuesday alongside billionaire Rick Jackson, who told supporters he’d govern like the president “with a southern tone.” In the GOP Senate primary, Rep. Mike Collins, a staunch MAGA ally, advanced to a runoff. And House candidates Jim Kingston, Houston Gaines and Clay Fuller won their races by wide margins, boosted by the president’s endorsement.

Meanwhile, longtime Trump antagonists — especially those who denied the 2020 election was “stolen” — lost their primary battles: Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, Attorney General Chris Carr and Gabriel Sterling, a former top Raffensperger aide.

The results offered the clearest sign yet that Georgia Republican voters increasingly want their political future tied to Trump-style politics and messaging — a shift in one of the nation’s premier battlegrounds that could shape elections in 2026 and beyond.

“It’s key to success in a Republican primary in Georgia today to either have the president’s endorsement or be able to make the case to voters that you’re certainly a Trump-aligned candidate,” said Georgia Republican Party chair Josh McKoon, a loyal Trump ally.

Candidates like Raffensperger may now be “relics of the past,” said Chip Lake, a longtime Republican strategist who helped Jones’ campaign. “That doesn’t mean they’re bad human beings, it just means that their style of politics is not consistent today with where the base of the party is.”

But hugging Trump that tightly in the primary has proved lethal for some Republicans in the general election, and Democrats in Georgia hope 2026 will echo the GOP’s 2022 election losses.

The Republican Party in Georgia, like in other states, has been drifting more and more toward a full-throated populist approach during the Trump era. But the old guard led by outgoing Gov. Brian Kemp (R) as well as Raffensperger and Carr managed to hold on through the 2022 midterm primaries against a number of Trump-backed challengers, delaying the hard MAGA takeover that occurred in many other states earlier on. The sharp shift this cycle comes as the GOP pushes for more resources and attention in the key swing state.

Now, some GOP strategists increasingly view aligning with Trump not just as an ideological litmus test, but as a practical necessity — especially as Trump’s political operation sits on  roughly $300 million in campaign funds. 

“It is good for the state of Georgia to choose these MAGA-aligned candidates in that the president has a huge war chest, and that war chest can be utilized for candidates that he likes,” said one Georgia-based Republican strategist granted anonymity to speak candidly about the state’s dynamics.

Across the state’s marquee Senate and governor’s primaries, the winning GOP candidates all embraced Trump’s brand. The expensive and rancorous primary for the governor’s mansion quickly evolved into a contest over who best carried the MAGA mantle — Jones, who has the president’s explicit support, or Jackson, who tried to convince voters that he, too, was closely aligned with Trump.

Trump has stayed out of the Senate primary so far, but the candidates still raced to align with his movement. Collins, a hardline immigration hawk and loyal Trump ally on Capitol Hill who appeared at a rally with Trump earlier this year, said that he is “unapologetically Pro-God, Pro-Trump, Pro-2nd Amendment, Pro-Strong Military” after advancing to the runoff.

Even former football coach Derek Dooley — Kemp’s handpicked candidate who will face off against Collins in the June runoff — leaned into his status as an outsider (à la Trump) and adopted a “Georgia First” pitch.

“We haven’t made any attempts to alienate Trump whatsoever. Derek supports the agenda. He’s made it clear through the debate and multiple interviews that he supports the president,” said a senior Dooley adviser, who was granted anonymity to speak openly about the race, prior to Election Day.

It’s a notable gamble for a party that was punished during the 2022 midterms for nominating hardline MAGA candidates across the country — including former football star Herschel Walker for Georgia Senate — who later lost in key races. This midterms cycle appears to be trending much harder toward Democrats, given Trump’s low approval ratings, voters’ concerns with the economy and the unpopular war in Iran.

Democrats are more than eager to tie Republicans to the president. Devon Cruz, a spokesperson for the Georgia Democratic Party, said in a statement that the Senate runoff will leave Collins and Dooley “terminally inseparable” from Trump.

Still, Tuesday’s results underscored how Trump’s dominance is increasingly shaping which Republicans can win statewide primaries in key races. And it’s not just in Georgia.

Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), who has long been a thorn in the president’s side, lost his seat to a Trump-endorsed challenger in a bitter retributive campaign. Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy was ousted by the president’s favored candidate. Trump vanquished a majority of the Indiana Republicans who bucked him on redistricting. And he finally backed Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton for the Senate race after deeming Sen. John Cornyn to be an insufficient ally.

“The party has completely changed in 50 states,” Lake, the Republican strategist, said. “It looks nothing like it did a decade ago, and it looks absolutely nothing like it did 15 years ago.”

“We’re a party that’s a lot different, that’s got a sharper focus, that’s willing to fight more, ” he added.

Raffensperger, who had become the biggest icon of standing up to the president, acknowledged to reporters following his loss that conspiracies about the 2020 election – despite no evidence to support any claims of fraud – helped tank his chances with Republican voters.

But he stopped short of blaming Trump’s grip on the party on his failure to advance in the runoff: “I just think terms are up, and so it’s a changing of the guard and turning over a new leaf,” he told reporters after his election loss. “We’ll have new people with new plans, new hopes, new visions, and we’re going to see where it goes.”

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Rep. Mike Collins and former football coach Derek Dooley advanced to a runoff in Georgia’s Republican Senate primary, dragging out a bitter contest to take on Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff in November.

The result plunges Republicans into another monthlong intraparty fight. Meanwhile, Ossoff, who already has a massive name ID and $31 million and counting in his warchest, can continue building and conserving his resources in the marquee race.

It also sets up a proxy battle between President Donald Trump, who holds Collins as a close ally, and Georgia’s GOP Gov. Brian Kemp, who backed Dooley for the nomination. Dooley, who was polling in third place ahead of Election Day, had a late burst of momentum after casting himself as a political outsider and leaning on his ties to Kemp.

The outcome now intensifies pressure on Trump, who didn’t support a candidate in the primary, to intervene. The president’s endorsement in a runoff — where the electorate tends to be highly engaged voters — could prove decisive.

The primary was marked by infighting and state Republicans’ escalating concerns that the national GOP was shifting its attention to other battleground states instead of Georgia.

A runoff looked all but inevitable in the contest’s final weeks with polls showing none of the candidates near the 50 percent support they’d need for an outright win. Dooley and Collins will face off again June 16, though Tuesday’s result suggests the latter holds an advantage.

Early public polling of hypothetical general election match-ups shows Ossoff with a lead over both Republicans.

The general election is expected to be one of the most expensive in the country. The GOP-aligned Senate Leadership Fund has already pledged an initial $44 million in spending for the fall, while the Democratic-aligned Senate Majority PAC recently committed $20 million.

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Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro just passed his first major test of the midterms.

Bob Brooks, a Shapiro-endorsed firefighter union leader, will take on GOP Rep. Ryan Mackenzie in a key November battleground after clinching the Democratic nomination for Pennsylvania’s 7th District over a crowded field.

It’s a significant win for Shapiro, who helped recruit Brooks into the race as part of his aggressive push to help Democrats retake the House by flipping four competitive seats in Pennsylvania. A romp across the map could serve as a launchpad for the governor’s potential 2028 presidential campaign.

It’s also a boon to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which recently added Brooks to its “Red to Blue” program and boosted him with a pre-primary ad buy.

Brooks, a first-time candidate, leaned heavily on the highly popular governor’s imprimatur to boost him over a four-way field that included former Northampton County Executive Lamont McClure, former federal prosecutor Ryan Crosswell, and engineer Carol Obando-Derstine, who served as an adviser to former Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.).

Shapiro went all-in, endorsing Brooks and hosting a fundraiser for him in December, cutting an ad for him in the spring and stumping with him shortly before Election Day.

The governor’s support brought scrutiny on both men. News outlets unearthed Brooks’ problematic old social media posts and a messy family property dispute. Brooks suggested that Shapiro tried to retaliate against a political foe in 2024 by encouraging his union to back her GOP opponent. (Brooks later said he misspoke.)

And a mysterious outside group with apparent ties to the GOP, Lead Left PAC, spent more than $1 million boosting McClure and attempting to sink Brooks and Crosswell in the final days of the race. Voters appeared to look past it all.

Brooks had more than just Shapiro in his corner. The blue-collar everyman who worked as a bartender and moonlights as a snowplow driver is being held up by an array of Democrats as a model for how the party can win back working-class voters.

He boasts one of the broadest endorsement lists of any House challenger on the map, a roster that spans from Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) to former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, and from the Congressional Progressive Caucus to the Blue Dogs. He’s also brought together a cross-section of top Democratic operatives, including the progressive Fight Agency and The Bench, a new group that works to elect nontraditional Democrats.

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President Donald Trump finally got his revenge on Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie.

The libertarian-leaning iconoclast who has been a hindrance to some of the president’s biggest priorities lost to Trump-endorsed former Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein in Kentucky’s 4th District on Tuesday, in a primary that became the most expensive intraparty House fight on record. It’s the latest in a string of primary victories for the president that cements his viselike grip on the GOP even as his overall approval numbers continue to sag.

In a retribution campaign that has seen Trump fell GOP foes from Indiana to Louisiana, Massie’s race was perhaps his sweetest victory.

Massie has long been an irritant to Trump and House GOP leaders. But his votes against Trump’s signature tax-and-spending package, moves to rein in the president’s war powers over Iran and stewardship of the bipartisan effort to release the Jeffrey Epstein files finally pushed Trump to front a primary challenger.

The president searched for a “warm body” to run against the “third rate Grandstander” and eventually found one in Gallrein, a fifth-generation farmer and failed state Senate candidate. Trump endorsed Gallrein before he got into the race and rallied with him in March. His Defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, promoted Gallrein at an event in the district Monday.

Polls showed a tight race down the home stretch in what had become the fight of Massie’s political life. The president’s intervention united local forces and various factions of the GOP that had long wanted to oust Massie but previously lacked the firepower. And it unleashed a flood of outside spending against Massie that proved too much for the incumbent to overcome.

A pair of pro-Israel super PACs linked to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee and the Republican Jewish Coalition spent more than $9 million targeting the isolationist, who has routinely rejected efforts to financially aid and symbolically support the U.S. ally. Another super PAC stood up by Trump’s top political operatives spent nearly $7 million berating Massie over his votes against the president’s tax cuts, border wall and other priorities. Overall ad spending in the race topped $33 million, per tracking firm AdImpact.

In delivering a death knell to the seven-term representative, the president has effectively silenced his loudest remaining Republican critic in Congress and sent a warning shot against further dissent.

While Massie will remain a thorn in Trump’s side through the end of the year — and likely an even louder one, now — he’ll be replaced by a staunch supporter.

Massie had cast the race in existential terms for the GOP, warning in an interview last month that his loss could further fray the coalition that Republicans are struggling to keep together in the midterms by pushing voters dissatisfied with the president to stay home.

“This is a congressional race. But it’s also somewhat of a national movement,” Massie said. “And it would be bad for Republicans’ prospects in the midterms if I lose.”

Now, Massie’s defeat will be a defining part of Trump’s legacy. And it stands as a sharp rebuke of the isolationist and conservative wings of the GOP that rallied around the incumbent, including prominent figureheads like former Fox News host Tucker Carlson, former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) and Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.).

The race became a microcosm of the conflicts playing out across the Republican Party over foreign interventions, Israel and the influence of its allied super PACs as the GOP starts to splinter over all three. It also drained tens of millions of dollars in GOP resources in a safe red seat as Republican donors fret about the party’s chances in competitive midterm races.

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An Israeli influence operation run by a private intelligence firm branded two left wing French mayoral candidates as “pro-Palestinian”, “pro-Muslim” and “rapists”.

A joint investigation by liberal-leaning Israeli newspaper Haaretz and French outlet Liberacion exposed details of BlackCore, a shadowy disinformation operation. This is just the latest so-called ‘psy-op‘ to be exposed.

The targets were current Marseille and Toulouse mayoral candidates, Sébastien Delogu and François Piquemal.

Haaretz explained on Monday:

The French operation was first exposed by Le Monde on March 9, a week before the country’s local elections. The target was France Unbowed, the party of left-wing presidential candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon.

The outlet said:

The first to be hit was Sébastien Delogu, the party’s mayoral candidate in Marseille; “Sophie,” a woman calling herself a blogger, accused him of rape and violence.

Adding:

A separate site published phony AI-generated photos that purported to be nude pictures of Delogu, presented as part of an alleged Gaza fundraising campaign.

A third website went after Toulouse mayoral candidate François Piquemal, while another “claimed to ‘help Muslim voters choose well’ and steered them toward Mélenchon’s hard-left slate”.

The whole package was amplified by a small army of fake accounts on social media.

BlackCore’s influencer operation

Haaretz said that once discovered, whoever was running the operation tried “to scrub their tracks, deleting avatars and websites, but digital traces remained online”.

French state security even stepped in.

A special investigative team from France’s General Secretariat for Defense and National Security, the Interior Ministry, the election commission and Viginum, the agency tasked with detecting foreign manipulation and disinformation on social media, picked up the trail and identified BlackCore as the main suspect. BlackCore’s name was first reported this weekend by Reuters.

The Haaretz/Liberacion expose revealed even more details about BlackCore.

Haaretz and Libération conducted an extensive analysis of BlackCore’s online digital footprint, including its website and other sites that seem to be part of the wider effort. For example, there is the company’s marketing website – a mini-site in Hebrew and English showcasing BlackCore’s alleged flagship product, “political campaign management.”

Adding:

It is built around the deployment of 1,600 avatars and fake social media accounts for the purposes of “infiltrating Facebook groups, manipulating trends, and skewing polls on TikTok and Instagram.”

Israeli business and intelligence links

A deeper look trawled up strange details and substantial inconsistencies about BlackCore.

The investigation could find no legal entity called BlackCore registered in any country. Its website contained no identifying details about owners or executives, or a physical address.

The domain blackcore.online was registered in an Icelandic registrar that allows owners to remain anonymous. The address was purchased only last August – by a company that presents itself as long-established.

Additionally, investigators identified “eight subdomains tied to BlackCore”.

One was active on a London-based server run by a Finnish cloud provider that hosted only a small handful of other websites that all had shared characteristics.

That server, which was “active until a few weeks ago” had “hosted a collection of different systems that required a username and password to log in to, tools through which an influence campaign could be conducted”.

For example, one login page was called “Galacticos AI Avatar Generator Login Page.”

A source told Haaretz that Galacticos “had developed a product that generates avatars that can be deployed both for influence operations and the monitoring of social media – as both require active accounts”.

Galacticos incorporated as a firm “in Tel Aviv in April 2022 under the name Pagecorn Ltd”.

 A year later it changed its name to Mycelium Intelligence Networks, and then to Galacticos in 2024.

The investigators discovered connections to two Israeli businessmen. One, Guy Geyor, is a “tech entrepreneur and former contestant on the Israeli versions of Survivor and The Bachelor“.

The other is lawyer Doron Afik. Both claimed when questioned to have no knowledge of BlackCore and denied “political activity in France”.

Less than two hours after they were asked for comment, the remaining digital infrastructure of both BlackCore and Galacticos was pulled offline.

Haaretz and Liberacion traced the various firms involved and found links to Israeli intelligence unit 8200 and to Yigal Unna, the former head of Israel’s National Cyber Directorate. Unna also denied any link to the operation.

It is rare — though not unknown — to get a glimpse inside a state influence operation. What is also remarkable is how quickly this one was shut down and traces of it scrubbed once it was exposed.

It is not exactly a secret that the settler-colonial state seeks to influence democratic outcomes in foreign states. But it is still fascinating when details of subterfuge and deception emerge.

Featured image via La Dépêche/ Adrien Nowak 

By Joe Glenton

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Wes Streeting‘s supporters – most likely his campaign team – are briefing the media that Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham will give a “senior job in No 10” to Josh Simons.

Simons is the now-ex MP who stepped down to trigger the Makerfield by-election in which Burnham plans to stand. He is then expected to challenge Keir Starmer – and Streeting, if he goes ahead with his bid – for the Labour leadership and prime ministership.

Streeting’s motives for this briefing are obvious: he would lose to Burnham by a country mile. So claiming that Burnham will put Simons back into a position of influence is an obvious attack point. Simons was director of ‘Labour Together’ – now rebranded as “Think Labour”, but without significant change – when it spied on journalists. The journalists were investigating its sabotage of Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour and its lie-campaign to install Keir Starmer to replace him.

The reports quote anonymous ‘Labour sources’, but other well-connected sources told Skwawkbox the briefing comes from Streeting’s cadre. Streeting’s other manoeuvres to try to nobble Burnham’s chances in Reform-run Makerfield include announcing that Streeting wants to rejoin the EU. This forced Burnham to into a no-win choice. Stick to his own earlier comments about rejoining, or u-turn and alienate Labour members he would then be asking to vote for his leadership.

Quid pro quo

The fact that the ‘No 10 job’ claims are campaign smears does not, however, remove concerns about Burnham’s indebtedness to the very saboteur outfit that brought down Corbyn and installed Starmer. A faction that destroyed Starmer by being found out in connection to Epstein-fan Peter Mandelson’s ambassadorial appointment and is desperately trying to retain control when Starmer is gone.

But the inside word is that the ‘quid pro quo’ currently on offer is Burnham then smoothing the way for a straight swap. Burnham would be Makerfield MP (if he wins). Former incumbent Simons would then be given a straight run at becoming Labour’s candidate in the mayoral election to replace Burnham.

Of course, none of these things are going to happen if Burnham fails to win a seat in which Reform are strong favourites. But it’s beyond reasonable doubt that the contingencies and ‘Plan B’s are being discussed – and that Streeting needs to nobble them to preserve his own chances.

Featured image via Getty Images/Gary Oakley

By Skwawkbox

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