Key Highlights

• Steven McClurg, CEO of Canary Capital, forecasts XRP may reach prices exceeding $2.80 before 2026 concludes, anticipating a 30% surge in ETF participation.
• Last week witnessed XRP exchange-traded funds attracting $60 million in net capital, marking the most robust weekly showing in 2026 and pushing total inflows to $1.39 billion.
• XRPL mainnet version 3.1.3 deployment is confirmed for May 27, with half of all network nodes already running the updated software.
• Large holders purchased more than 71 million XRP tokens during the previous seven days, while 4,300 fresh addresses appeared within a single day.
• CME Group’s XRP derivatives products generated $62.87 billion in notional trading volume during their inaugural twelve months, with daily averages reaching $238 million.

Ripple’s native token currently hovers between $1.36 and $1.40, encountering significant price resistance at the $1.40 threshold. While institutional backing remains consistent, recent trading sessions have shown limited directional movement.

CME Group reported that its XRP futures offering surpassed $62.87 billion in notional value during the first year of operation. Daily trading volume averaged $238 million, representing approximately 1.32 million executed contracts and total exposure equivalent to roughly 28.6 billion XRP tokens.

Speaking with reporters this week, Canary Capital’s Steven McClurg stated that XRP has the potential to “probably double in price by the end of the year.” Based on the current trading range near $1.40, this projection would place XRP above the $2.80 mark by December 2026.

McClurg simultaneously projected a 30% expansion in exchange-traded fund participation before year-end. However, he cautioned against expecting a linear trajectory, characterizing the upcoming summer months as “a tough summer for equities and crypto across the board.”

His market outlook divides into three distinct phases. The initial phase involves challenging summer conditions. The second phase encompasses reduced market activity during the midterm electoral cycle as investors retreat from risk assets. The final phase anticipates a powerful post-election rally fueled by ETF capital deployment, implementation of the CLARITY Act, and accelerated tokenization of real-world assets.

XRP-focused exchange-traded products registered $60 million in net inflows during the previous week, representing the strongest seven-day performance recorded in 2026. Total cumulative inflows have now reached $1.39 billion.

Network Activity Demonstrates Growth

Blockchain analytics provider Santiment identified a significant increase in XRP network expansion this week. Data from Santiment reveals that 4,300 new wallet addresses were generated within a 24-hour window — representing the fourth-largest single-day increase observed in 2026. The firm emphasized that network growth metrics serve as reliable early indicators for identifying potential price trend reversals.

Large holder activity also demonstrated accumulation patterns. Blockchain monitoring data confirms that whale addresses acquired over 71 million XRP tokens throughout the past week, although the accumulation rate has decelerated compared to earlier monthly activity.

Major XRPL Network Enhancement Scheduled for May 27

The XRP Ledger mainnet is preparing for a significant upgrade scheduled for May 27 at 03:49 AM UTC. Version 3.1.3 incorporates the fixCleanup3_1_3 amendment, designed to resolve existing issues affecting NFTs, Permissioned Domains, Vaults, and the network’s Lending Protocol functionality.

Current statistics indicate that 50% of network nodes have successfully implemented the latest software version. Validator nodes have achieved complete 100% consensus regarding the proposed amendment. Nodes failing to complete the upgrade face the risk of becoming “amendment-blocked,” which would prevent them from processing transactions or participating in the consensus mechanism.

David Schwartz, Ripple’s CTO Emeritus, has responded to various community questions concerning the upcoming upgrade. This enhancement represents one component of the comprehensive XRPL development roadmap, which encompasses tokenized real-world asset integration, permissioned decentralized exchange capabilities, and post-quantum cryptographic security implementations.

Derivatives traders maintain optimistic positions on XRP reclaiming the $1.40 level before month-end. Open interest across futures markets has expanded in recent days as the upgrade date approaches, though diminished spot market volume continues to suggest potential headwinds for near-term price momentum.

Market analyst CRYPTOWZRD observed that a decisive breakthrough above $1.40 would establish a clear pathway toward $1.55, with subsequent movement beyond that level potentially targeting the $2.00 price zone.

TLDR

• New Glassnode analysis reveals 6.04 million BTC — representing 30.2% of total supply — faces quantum computing threats
• Bitcoin valued at more than $469 billion has public cryptographic keys exposed on the blockchain
• Major platforms including Binance and Bitfinex display quantum exposure rates of 85% and 100%
• AmericanFortress secures $8 million in funding to create post-quantum protection using zero-knowledge proof technology
• Proposed solution aims to safeguard Satoshi’s estimated 1.1 million BTC plus nearly 5 million additional dormant coins without requiring widespread migrations

Approximately 30% of the entire Bitcoin supply currently in circulation faces potential theft risk once quantum computers achieve sufficient processing power to break existing cryptographic protections, new data from Glassnode indicates.

The blockchain intelligence company conducted a comprehensive examination of Bitcoin’s ledger to identify coins with exposed public cryptographic keys. Their investigation uncovered 6.04 million BTC — valued at over $469 billion — in a quantum-vulnerable state. The balance of 13.99 million BTC remains protected without public key exposure.

Understanding the Security Gap

Bitcoin‘s security architecture depends on the pairing of private keys with corresponding public keys. In standard operations, public keys remain hidden from blockchain visibility. However, once exposed through outgoing transactions or repeated address usage, a quantum computer with adequate capabilities could deploy Shor’s algorithm to decrypt the private key and seize control of the assets.

Glassnode categorizes the vulnerable supply into two distinct classifications. The first, structural exposure, encompasses 1.92 million BTC, accounting for 9.6% of total supply. This segment includes original “pay-to-public-key” transactions associated with Bitcoin founder Satoshi Nakamoto, older multisignature configurations, and Taproot-based outputs.

The second and more substantial category, operational exposure, contains 4.12 million BTC, representing 20.6% of supply. These holdings became susceptible through repeated address utilization, where multiple transactions from identical addresses ultimately reveal the public key to the network.

Cryptocurrency exchanges contribute significantly to this vulnerability profile. Approximately 1.66 million BTC within the operational exposure category originates from exchange wallets. Coinbase demonstrates minimal exposure at just 5% of its tracked holdings. In contrast, Binance and Bitfinex register exposure rates of 85% and 100% respectively. Glassnode emphasized these figures reflect custody architecture decisions rather than indicating insolvency concerns.

Government-held Bitcoin reserves showed superior security positioning. National treasuries in the United States, United Kingdom, and El Salvador all recorded zero quantum vulnerability.

An Emerging Solution

Technology startup AmericanFortress believes it has engineered a viable remedy. The firm, supported by an $8 million seed financing round, has created a patent-pending post-quantum cryptographic signature system built on zero-knowledge proof foundations.

This protocol eliminates the need for large-scale fund transfers or launching alternative blockchains. Rather, it employs a backward-compatible soft fork mechanism to lock and shield inactive wallets — notably including Satoshi-period addresses that cannot undergo automatic modernization.

“Our quantum-resistant protocol would automatically freeze and protect those funds until governance decides what to do with them after Q-day,” said CEO Michal Pospieszalski.

The protection mechanism extends across Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and Tron networks. For current wallet users, the upgrade process requires approximately 50 milliseconds through a simple wallet notification. The company estimates implementation costs comparable to a single rollup transaction.

AmericanFortress estimates that more than $600 billion in cryptocurrency holdings remain in vulnerable conditions, with Solana addresses showing 100% exposure. The firm’s cryptographic approach for Bitcoin should become available for community review within weeks, preceding a formal unveiling scheduled for June 2 in Paris.

Concurrently, Bitcoin’s developer ecosystem continues deliberating BIP-360, a technical proposal for implementing quantum-resistant transaction structures. Projections for “Q-Day” — the milestone when quantum computers could potentially compromise Bitcoin’s cryptographic defenses — span from 2030 through 2032. The United States government recently announced over $2 billion in investments toward quantum computing ventures this week.

Key Takeaways

• Billionaire Mark Cuban liquidated approximately 80% of his Bitcoin position following disappointing performance
• During the US-Iran geopolitical tensions, gold reached $5,000 while Bitcoin declined in value
• Cuban maintains his Ethereum holdings, emphasizing its practical applications in DeFi and smart contracts
• The investor characterized the majority of alternative cryptocurrencies as worthless
• Bitcoin supporters counter that the asset has gained more than 16% since tensions escalated, depending on measurement period

Billionaire entrepreneur Mark Cuban, known for owning the Dallas Mavericks, has divested approximately 80% of his Bitcoin portfolio. In an interview on the Front Office Sports podcast “Portfolio Players,” Cuban revealed that Bitcoin’s performance during recent geopolitical instability contradicted his investment hypothesis.

JUST IN: Billionaire Mark Cuban says he sold “most” of his Bitcoin.

“Bitcoin has lost the plot.” pic.twitter.com/8xbRbcPBpC

— Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru) May 21, 2026

For years, Cuban championed Bitcoin as an improved alternative to gold. He frequently cited its capped supply and decentralized framework as advantages that positioned it as a superior wealth preservation tool. Just months ago, in January 2025, Cuban publicly stated his preference for Bitcoin over gold during economic downturns.

His perspective has undergone a dramatic shift.

The Reasoning Behind Cuban’s Bitcoin Exit

“When all this hit the fan with the Iran war, bitcoin was always the best alternative to fiat currency losing its value,” Cuban explained. “Gold just blew up and went to $5,000. Bitcoin dropped.”

Cuban’s rationale centered on a straightforward expectation: whenever the U.S. dollar weakened, he anticipated Bitcoin would appreciate. The reality proved different. While gold rallied amid geopolitical uncertainty, Bitcoin experienced a decline.

Prior to 2026, Cuban’s digital asset allocation consisted of approximately 60% Bitcoin, 30% Ethereum, and 10% various other tokens. He previously stated he had never liquidated his Bitcoin holdings. That longstanding commitment has now dramatically shifted.

“Not the hedge I expected it to be, and that was really disappointing,” he remarked.

Cuban labeled most alternative digital currencies as worthless while noting his continued confidence in Ethereum.

Ethereum Retains Cuban’s Support

Despite his Bitcoin exit, Cuban retains his Ethereum position. He has repeatedly highlighted its smart contract capabilities and its foundational role in powering decentralized finance platforms and non-fungible tokens.

Cuban draws a clear distinction between Bitcoin, which he primarily evaluated as a value storage mechanism, and Ethereum, which he considers to have more tangible practical applications.

His recent statements indicate this differentiation has become increasingly significant in his investment framework.

Bitcoin Advocates Challenge Cuban’s Assessment

Cuban’s interpretation of recent market behavior hasn’t gone unchallenged.

Cryptocurrency proponents highlight that from the initial escalation of US-Iran tensions in late February, Bitcoin has appreciated over 16% while gold has declined more than 15%. The comparative performance varies significantly based on the selected timeframe.

Bitcoin currently trades around $77,500, representing approximately a 38% decrease from its October 2025 peak of $126,080. Gold is valued near $4,500 per ounce, having retreated from its $5,000 high.

Cuban’s decision appears isolated from wider institutional trends. Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds collectively manage over $100 billion in assets, demonstrating sustained institutional appetite for the cryptocurrency.

Cuban’s portfolio adjustment represents an individual investment choice rooted in his specific expectations about Bitcoin functioning as a macroeconomic hedge — expectations he now believes the asset has not fulfilled.

Fundamental Background

The RBA’s third consecutive interest rate increase to 4.35% reflects the regulator’s concern over rising inflation: the conflict in the Middle East is increasing energy costs and putting upward pressure on prices. Annual consumer inflation stood at 4.6% in March. Analysts at CBA believe this rate hike should be sufficient, with the base-case scenario pointing to rates remaining unchanged until the end of 2026, provided neither the federal budget nor second-quarter inflation data deliver major surprises.

At the same time, the Australian dollar failed to hold near its May highs, as rising demand for safe-haven assets amid global uncertainty weighed on risk-sensitive currencies.

AUD/USD Technical Picture

On the 4-hour AUD/USD chart, the upward movement from late March to early May is clearly visible, forming a pronounced trend with a characteristic wave structure. In mid-May, the trend was broken and the price declined towards the 0.7100 area, ultimately forming a green support level. The Point of Control (POC) zone is currently being tested from below, while the horizontal volume profile boundaries cover the 0.7120–0.7190 range — the corridor where the bulk of market activity is concentrated.

The 0.7190 level could act as resistance in the event of recovery attempts within the profile. The red resistance level at 0.7260 — the local May high — may remain an important reference point should the pair test the upper trend levels. The RSI + MAs indicator currently shows readings of 51 / 43 / 42, reflecting the market’s restrained and neutral character.

Key Takeaways

The key driver for the pair remains the balance between expectations for further RBA action and demand for safe-haven assets — for now, both forces continue to compete with one another. The RSI picture offers no clear advantage to either side, while price action remains close to the POC zone within a relatively narrow market profile.

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A fresh read on on-chain and derivatives signals suggests institutional appetite for crypto has cooled further, with the Coinbase premium slipping deeper into negative territory. The metric, which tracks the gap between Bitcoin prices on Coinbase (a venue favored by U.S. institutions) and Binance (more retail-oriented), slid to its lowest level this month at -0.0983% on May 21, underscoring renewed selling pressure from professional investors.

The premium has remained negative since late April, but the pace of decline picked up over the last week. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost characterized the move as a heightening of selling pressure among institutional traders. “Institutional selling pressure has intensified recently,” Darkfost said. “This suggests that the population of institutional and professional investors trading on Coinbase Advanced is selling more aggressively than investors trading on Binance.”

Beyond the Coinbase premium, the broader macro backdrop appears to bolster a cautious stance among institutions. Gold—historically viewed as a hedge—has fallen about 5.8% over the past month, while equities across the S&P 500 and Dow Jones have shown gains since early April. That mix points to a risk-on tilt in traditional markets and a reallocation that may be weighing on crypto demand at the margin.

Key takeaways

• The Coinbase premium sits negative, with the May 21 reading at -0.0983%, signaling intensified institutional selling pressure on Coinbase Advanced relative to Binance.
• Analysts tie the shift to hedging behavior amid macro uncertainty, with institutions repositioning and possibly taking profits, which could dampen near-term crypto momentum.
• Bitcoin ETF outflows in the United States accumulate, totaling about $1.3 billion over four trading days since May 14, while derivatives demand shows signs of waning.
• Open interest in Bitcoin futures and perpetuals declined by roughly $1.5 billion in the week, suggesting a reset of leveraged bets and a potential reliance on actual spot demand for the next move.
• Bitcoin itself has fallen about 4.5% over the past week, trading near $77,600 after a monthly low just above $76,000, roughly 38% below its October peak.

Institutional positioning and the “premium” signal

The Coinbase premium has long been monitored as a proxy for the behavior of sophisticated buyers in the U.S. market. When the premium turns negative, it implies Coinbase’s price is softer than Binance’s, which can reflect a withdrawal of U.S. institutions from spot exposure or a shift toward hedging strategies. In this cycle, the trend toward negative readings has persisted for weeks, but the steep drop over the last seven days has heightened concerns about whether a larger cohort of funds is stepping back from fresh exposure to Bitcoin.

Nick Ruck, research director at LVRG, offered a cautionary angle: the drop in the premium could signal “the emergence of net selling pressure from larger holders,” potentially indicating profit-taking or portfolio rebalancing. He warned that such dynamics might weigh on near-term price momentum across major crypto assets, especially if spot demand remains lackluster as institutional selling persists.

By contrast, some market participants view the divergence between Coinbase and more retail-oriented venues as a gauge of sector rotation rather than a pure directional bet on price. Still, the current signal aligns with a broader pattern of institutions slowing or pausing fresh allocations while macro clarity remains elusive.

ETF outflows and dwindling derivatives activity

The latest data on U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs adds another layer to the selling narrative. CoinGlass reports four consecutive trading days of outflows totaling roughly $1.3 billion since May 14. The pace of withdrawals suggests institutions are reallocating capital away from spot exposure or consolidating risk in other assets amid ongoing uncertainty.

Concurrently, operator activity in the derivatives market is cooling. Bitfinex noted that open interest—the aggregate value of outstanding Bitcoin futures and perpetual contracts—dropped by around $1.5 billion during the week. That retrenchment follows a period in which leveraged positioning had been building as Bitcoin moved toward the $82,000 region. The exchange framed the current environment as a transition: “With short-side fuel exhausted and long positioning reset lower, the next major move likely depends on spot demand.”

Bitcoin itself has retraced recently, posting a 4.5% decline over the past week and touching a monthly low just above $76,000 on Tuesday. At the time of writing, the asset hovered around $77,600, about 38% below its October peak. The combination of ETF withdrawals, falling open interest, and a still-fragile spot bid paints a picture of a market waiting for a catalyst—whether macro clarity, stronger institutional demand, or a sustained shift in risk sentiment.

Implications for traders and builders

These indicators point to a market environment where institutional demand remains tepid and price action is predominantly contingent on spot-buying vigor rather than leveraged bets. For traders, the deterioration in the Coinbase premium and the uptick in ETF outflows suggest a cautious stance: any upside move will likely require a tangible uptick in spot demand rather than relief rallies driven by derivatives leverage.

From an infrastructure and product perspective, the signals reinforce the importance of robust on-ramp options, transparent liquidity channels for institutions, and clarity on how macro shifts might influence hedging behavior. For developers and builders, evolving custody and settlement workflows, regulatory clarity, and improved access to compliant institutional products could help bridge the gap between retail enthusiasm and institutional participation.

Looking ahead, observers will be watching two intertwined threads: whether spot demand strengthens enough to absorb the existing overhang from hedgers and large holders, and how ETF and derivatives flows respond to fresh macro data and regulatory signals. If institutional selling persists and the premium remains negative, risk assets, including Bitcoin, could face the near-term pressure that many market participants already anticipate.

In the near term, investors should monitor whether spot demand improves or whether the current dynamics prolong the consolidation phase. The coming weeks will be telling for whether the dip in the Coinbase premium and ETF outflows translate into a broader regime shift or a temporary pause before renewed interest from institutional buyers returns.

What remains uncertain is how incoming macro developments—ranging from inflation data to regulatory updates and central-bank policy—will shape the risk appetite of large funds with crypto exposure. As ever, the market’s next move is likely to hinge on the delicate balance between hedging needs, liquidity availability, and the evolving appetite for risk across traditional and digital asset classes.

Polymarket, the world’s largest decentralized betting platform, has gone dark for users in India. The website says, “This site can’t be reached. Check if there is a typo in polymarket.com.”

Refreshing the page does not resolve the connection issue.

The outage follows an April 25 advisory from the Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology (MeitY) directed at VPN service providers. The advisory warned that local users were continuing to access “illegal and blocked prediction market and online betting platforms” despite “domestic prohibitions.”

According to the directive, internet service providers were required to terminate access to prediction markets, with Polymarket among the primary targets.

While Kalshi, a platform regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), is currently still accessible, it may soon face a similar fate. Local media reports, citing an anonymous source within MeitY, claim the agency has “already issued a blocking order to Polymarket and are in the process of issuing an order to Kalshi as soon as Friday.”

CoinDesk reached out to Polymarket and Kalshi for a comment.

Prediction markets enable users to wager real money on the outcomes of binary events, such as referendums, financial asset price movements, and election results. These platforms saw a massive surge in global popularity during the 2024 U.S. presidential election, becoming a primary venue for investors to hedge or bet on political outcomes.

However, the Indian government classifies the activity on these platforms as online money gaming. As a result, they fall under a category that is completely prohibited under the Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Act 2025.

The Indian government has maintained a consistently “risk-averse” and prohibitive stance toward the cryptocurrency sector, prioritizing financial stability and capital control over industry growth. New Delhi has utilized a “shadow ban” strategy through punitive taxation, including a 30% flat tax on gains and a 1% tax deducted at source (TDS) on all transactions, which has effectively throttled domestic trading volumes.

The Ministry of Finance has focused on bringing the sector under strict Anti-Money Laundering (AML) and Counter-Strike Financing (CFT) oversight via the Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU). This regulatory environment has pushed many local crypto startups to relocate to more friendly jurisdictions like Dubai or Singapore, as the government and the Reserve Bank of India continue to signal that it views private cryptocurrencies more as speculative “money games” than legitimate financial innovation.

India’s Parliamentary Standing Committee on Finance met crypto exchanges Binance, WazirX and Zebpay in Delhi on May 20 to discuss regulations and taxation for what it calls a virtual digital assets (VDA) industry.

The committee expressed concerns over massive outflows from the country via the crypto channel.

XRP held near $1.37 by midday Hong Kong time on Thursday, according to CoinDesk market data, with fresh ETF and on-chain data suggesting some investors may be rotating into XRP. Meanwhile, market leader bitcoin BTC$77,341.59 hovered around $77,400 and ether (eTH) remained under pressure.

CoinGlass data shows XRP-linked funds pulled in $8.88 million in the latest session, extending a streak of positive flows that includes $18.52 million on May 14 and $10.87 million on May 15. Across the past week, XRP products have attracted roughly $42 million in net inflows.

This has caught analysts’ attention because money has been leaving the largest listed crypto products. Bitcoin ETFs lost another $100.9 million in the latest daily session, following redemptions of $648.6 million, $331.1 million, and $290.4 million earlier in the same stretch. Ether products also remained under pressure, losing $32.6 million in the latest session.

The data suggests a selective appetite for alternative crypto exposure, though XRP’s broader network growth trend remains weaker than late 2025 levels.

Onchain activity offers a second, though less definitive, signal.

XRP recorded the fourth-largest daily spike in wallet creation this year, with 4,300 new wallets added in 24 hours, according to Blockchain analytics firm Santiment.

Fresh wallet creation can sometimes point to new network participation, particularly when paired with capital inflows.

But the broader Santiment chart suggests caution.

XRP’s network growth has generally trended lower since late 2025, making the latest move look more like a sharp one-day spike than clear evidence of sustained adoption.

For traders, the question is whether XRP is seeing the early stages of a broader rotation trade, or simply a short-lived burst of speculative positioning while the wider crypto market remains under pressure.

Binance CEO Richard Teng has rejected a new Wall Street Journal report, saying it contains wrong claims about the exchange’s sanctions controls.

Teng said in a post on X that the WSJ report contains “fundamental inaccuracies” about Binance and its compliance program. He said Binance did not permit transactions with sanctioned individuals and that the transactions mentioned by the publication happened before the people involved were sanctioned.

The WSJ reported that Iranian-linked networks used Binance accounts to move large sums, including funds allegedly tied to sanctioned activity. The report said the activity involved accounts connected to financier Babak Zanjani and crypto firm Zedcex. Binance disputed the claims and said the information was inaccurate.

Teng says Binance reviewed the matter

Teng said Binance had already reviewed the issues before the WSJ contacted the company. He also said Binance gave those details to the publication, but they were not included in the report.

He added that Binance has “zero-tolerance for illicit activity” and will continue working with U.S. and global law-enforcement agencies to fight financial crime. The comment keeps Binance’s defense focused on timing, internal review, and cooperation with authorities.

Compliance record stays under review

The latest dispute follows earlier reports and government questions about Binance’s sanctions systems. In March, Binance formally denied allegations that it allowed transactions linked to Iran and said media reports cited in a U.S. Senate inquiry contained false claims about its compliance program.

Binance said at the time that it requires identity checks for every user and bars people located in Iran from using the exchange. The company also said it uses more than 25 monitoring tools to screen users and review transactions.

Past settlement shapes the debate

The issue remains sensitive because Binance pleaded guilty in 2023 to U.S. anti-money-laundering and sanctions violations. The Justice Department said Binance agreed to pay more than $4.3 billion and retain an independent compliance monitor as part of that resolution.

U.S. officials said the case included failures that allowed transactions between U.S. users and users in sanctioned jurisdictions, including Iran, between 2018 and 2022. Binance has since said it rebuilt parts of its compliance system and improved its monitoring.

Binance points to stronger controls

Binance has repeatedly pointed to recent metrics as proof of progress. Earlier reports said the exchange claimed sanctions-related exposure fell 96.8% between January 2024 and July 2025, from 0.284% of total exchange volume to 0.009%.

The company also said more than 1,500 workers now support compliance, sanctions screening, investigations, and risk functions. Binance said it processed more than 71,000 law-enforcement requests in 2025 and helped authorities recover funds linked to illicit activity.