Everybody is talking about $4.50 gasoline at the pump. And all the usual suspects from the lefty press, and of course the Democratic party, and even the business press that ought to know better, anyway, they’re all talking about recession.

Of course they’re against President Trump. They’re against the Iran war. And they love to crow about high energy prices destroying the Trumpian economy.

Only trouble is, not only are we not going into a recession — the economy is booming. It is picking up steam. Profits are the mothers’ milk of stocks and the lifeblood of the economy. And right now profits are soaring by 15 percent.

Here’s Mr. Trump earlier today on the subject: “So the Americans are benefiting. Working today we have the most working and we have 401k’s that their all time high, highest they’ve ever been.” 

Mr. Trump added: “And that goes along with the stock market, which is the highest it’s ever been under my most favored nation agreements. This is something that I wish the media would talk about, because to me, it’s one of the biggest things ever to happen in our country.”

Now I do feel everyone’s pain regarding gas and diesel prices, and fertilizer prices on the farm. Yet it is a small price to pay to get ride of the Gestapo in Iran. Actually, less than 5 percent of consumer spending is affected by gas prices.

Meanwhile, the Atlanta Fed is looking at a huge 4.3 percent increase in second-quarter real GDP. That is a big number.

Under the hood, consumer spending, despite gas prices, is estimated to rise by 2.9 percent annually, and business capital investment by 9.4 percent annually. Wages, which mean more to working folks’ kitchen tables than GDP, are rising above 4 percent when you include hours worked.

Output per person or productivity is up a whopping 2.9 percent over the past year. Almost 3 percent.

And unit labor costs, which is the most basic price indicator in the whole economy, wages less productivity, is up only 1.2 percent over the past year.

The AI footprint is now bigger than the dotcom boom, according to John Carney.

And yes, topline prices are up by around 4 percent, but actually core goods prices, excluding food and energy, only 1.1 percent. So the tariff-flation craze never panned out.

Actually, if it weren’t for a one off bad import number last quarter, GDP would’ve been up 3.2 percent. That’s going to reverse this quarter and will drive the economy even faster. Here’s Treasury Man Scott Bessent earlier today:

“Sir, on the economy, two words: resilience and prosperity. The continued resilience of the economy speaks for itself even during the Iran conflict.”

Meanwhile, the stock market is just booming across the board. The Dow is holding above 50,000. And all the other stock indexes are making record highs, which is a sign of confidence in the future economy.

Did you know, by the way, that in America, total household wealth, which includes mainly stocks, bonds, real estate, and cash, is about $180 trillion. Which is about six times larger than our gross domestic product, or our federal debt in public hands. $180 trillion folks. It’s remarkable.

No country is even remotely close to that number. And on a per person basis, our GDP is more than $90,000. In Communist China, it’s less than $14,000.

The Chinese stock market hasn’t moved in years. And the United States is producing more oil and gas than anyone could ever imagine. We are the biggest supplier in the world today. This is the Trumpian economy. If only somebody would write about it.  

Just think of it.

Bob Brackett
Bernstein Institutional Services LLC, Research Division

Good afternoon. We’ll be kicking off our session. Welcome again to the 42nd Annual Strategic Decisions Conference. I am Bob Brackett, Co-Head of Energy and Transition here at Bernstein. We are not expecting a fire alarm or a fire drill. And so if the alarm rings, please take it seriously.

The first path of exit is out the back door to the right, all the way to the escalators that you came up down to the street and wait for further instructions. If for whatever reason that path is blocked, you go straight back. There’s a series of internal stairwells that are well marked, take one of those down and follow the lighted path there.

Ultimately, this is your conversation. This is a fireside chat. There’s [ floor ] up on stage, but there’s more in the audience. And so ultimately, you should drive the conversation to do that, you will use either the website you’ve already pulled up, this pigeonhole.

If you need the QR code, there’s a number of blue sheets of paper around the room that you can get that from. And what we’ll do is I’ll adjourn in one second. And we’re going to follow a pyramid principle, which is we’re going to start high. We’re going to talk about the macro environment in which ONEOK operates, and then we’re going to talk strategy, and then we’re going to move down into assets and operations.

As the US and China vie for AI dominance, energy has become a crucial battleground. Their competition extends beyond technology to securing sustainable and strategic energy resources, highlighting the importance of energy resilience and innovation in shaping global power dynamics in the race for technological supremacy.

The race for renewable energy dominance between the US and China is intensifying. China currently leads globally, with substantial investments in solar, wind, and hydropower projects. Its aggressive push towards clean energy aims to reduce reliance on coal and position itself as a leader in the green economy. Meanwhile, the US has made significant strides, fueled by policy initiatives like the Inflation Reduction Act, which boosts renewables development and innovation.

Despite the US’s advanced technological edge, catching up to China remains a formidable challenge. China’s vast manufacturing capabilities, government support, and large-scale infrastructure projects give it a distinct advantage. The US faces hurdles such as political gridlock, regulatory delays, and supply chain issues, which slow progress in scaling renewable energy deployment.

However, the US has the potential to close the gap with strategic investments and technological advancements. By fostering collaborations, improving policy consistency, and accelerating deployment, the US can boost its renewable capacity. While China currently leads, sustained effort and innovation could see the US competing more closely in the renewable energy race in the future.

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Other People are Reading

As a parent, one thing I often try to emphasize to my kids is the importance of hard work. Study a little bit for a test, and you might walk away with a 95. Study harder, and you could score 100 instead.

I’m also no stranger to hard work. There’s a reason I spend 40 or more hours a week at my desk as a freelance writer when I could probably get away with working less. I’m a big fan of the payoff.

But when it comes to investing, I happen to think it’s OK to be a little lazy.

A portfolio that also includes mid- and large-cap stocks provides balance. (Michael Nagle/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

While some investors spend hours each week poring over their portfolios and choosing stocks to meet their long-term and retirement savings goals, others may prefer a more hands-off approach. And I think it’s totally fine to find a lazy person’s ETF, or exchange-traded fund, that you can put money into regularly and call it a day.

ETFS VS MUTUAL FUNDS IN 2026: WHICH IS RIGHT FOR YOUR PORTFOLIO?

There’s one ETF in particular that I’m a fan of for this approach. And if your goal is to grow your money without having to put in a lot of effort, you may want to add it to your portfolio.

How the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF lends to “lazy” investing

The Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF is ideal for lazy investing because it offers broad market exposure in a single fund. As the name implies, when you buy shares of the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF, you’re effectively investing in thousands of U.S. companies across a range of industries and market caps.

The latter point is important. Exposure to large-, mid- and small-cap stocks is crucial because each category plays a different role in a diversified portfolio.

Large-cap companies are typically well-established businesses with a proven model. Some may be poised for steady growth, while others may have a long history of paying and increasing dividends. These companies can offer the benefit of consistency and may hold up better during periods of market volatility.

WHAT ARE ACTIVE ETFS AND HOW ARE THEY RESHAPING HOW AMERICANS INVEST?

Mid-cap stocks, meanwhile, are usually companies that are still growing but have reasonably established businesses. They can offer a nice balance between stability and growth potential.

Finally, small-cap stocks tend to be less established companies. That can be a mixed bag. Small-cap stocks can carry more risk, but they also offer a lot of growth potential.

A portfolio of only small-cap stocks can be risky. But a portfolio that also includes mid- and large-cap stocks provides balance.

With the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF, you don’t have to rack your brain trying to come up with the ideal allocation across large-, mid- and small-cap stocks. The fund itself does it for you. And if you stick with it for the long haul, you’re likely to come away with strong returns.

A BEGINNER-FRIENDLY ETF PORTFOLIO THAT REQUIRES ALMOST NO MAINTENANCE AND DELIVERS LONG-TERM RESULTS

ETFs can trade at slight premiums or discounts to the value of their underlying holdings. (Spencer Platt/Getty Images)

Over the past 10 years, the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF has generated a roughly 295% return. And the cost of this super-easy strategy is a mere 0.03% expense ratio, which is pocket change compared to the average 0.72% expense ratio found across similar funds.

There’s nothing wrong with simplicity

You might think investing in the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF is taking the easy way out. Well, it is. And if your goal as an investor is to beat the market, then this isn’t the way to do it.

But if you’re happy with the idea of having your portfolio mimic the broad market’s returns, there’s nothing wrong with bypassing the stress of choosing stocks individually and falling back on a broad market ETF instead. And there’s perhaps no fund that better fits that bill than the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF, especially if your goal is to combine simplicity with the safeguards that come with having a diversified portfolio.

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Maurie Backman has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.