TLDR

• SanDisk stock climbed 5.16% Thursday as Kioxia’s strong guidance triggered a rally across memory chip stocks
• Japanese chipmaker Kioxia reported customers booking NAND supply for 2027-2028, two years earlier than typical one-year advance contracts
• Memory chip shortage expected to persist through 2026 as manufacturers prioritize high-bandwidth memory over NAND production
• SanDisk trades at 15x forward P/E despite sitting 14% below February peak, with gross margins expanding to 50.9%
• Micron’s early HBM4 chip shipments reinforce tight supply expectations as AI data center demand continues growing

SanDisk shares jumped 5.16% Thursday after Kioxia issued guidance pointing to an extended memory chip shortage. The rally lifted other memory stocks including Seagate Technology, up 5.87%, and Western Digital, up 3.78%.

Sandisk Corporation, SNDK

Kioxia forecast full-year sales and operating income above analyst expectations. Fourth-quarter revenue is projected at ¥890 billion with adjusted net income of ¥340 billion, both beating estimates.

The Japanese manufacturer revealed customers are securing memory contracts for 2027 and 2028. This represents a major shift from the industry norm of one-year advance bookings.

Early Contract Bookings Signal Supply Crunch

The rush to lock in future supply suggests companies expect shortages to last years, not months. Kioxia CFO Hideki Hanazawa confirmed tight supply is pushing selling prices sharply higher.

Micron started shipping next-generation HBM4 memory chips ahead of schedule. The early rollout reinforces expectations that supply constraints will continue through 2026.

NAND flash memory is used in solid-state drives for cloud servers. As companies build AI infrastructure, they need massive storage capacity for training data and outputs.

The current shortage stems from decisions made after the pandemic. Memory makers overbuilt capacity during strong electronics demand. The resulting oversupply crashed NAND prices and turned gross margins negative.

Why SanDisk Benefits Most

Companies responded by cutting NAND production and shifting capacity to DRAM and high-bandwidth memory. HBM delivers better margins and became essential for AI chip performance.

But AI data centers started buying huge quantities of NAND-based storage. With production slashed and demand surging, prices skyrocketed.

SanDisk led Thursday’s gains because it manufactures NAND chips through a joint venture with Kioxia. The company has direct exposure to rising flash memory prices.

Western Digital and Seagate, which sell data center storage products, typically follow memory pricing trends.

SanDisk stock trades 14% below its February highs despite Thursday’s rally. The pullback has created a potential entry point at attractive valuations.

The stock trades at 15 times forward earnings for fiscal 2026 ending June. That multiple drops to 7.5 times fiscal 2027 estimates.

Last quarter, SanDisk posted 61% revenue growth. Gross margins expanded from 32.3% to 50.9% year-over-year. Adjusted earnings per share jumped fivefold.

The company represents one of the few pure-play investments in flash memory after spinning off from Western Digital about a year ago.

Memory stocks had cooled earlier this year following a strong rally. Kioxia’s guidance reassured investors that elevated chip prices will continue supporting profits.

The NAND market appears to be transitioning from a cyclical business to structural growth driven by AI data center buildouts. Kioxia’s comments about 2027-2028 bookings suggest tight conditions will persist longer than many expected.

Kalshi is moving deeper into the sports insurance market after announcing a partnership with sports insurance broker Game Point Capital, according to comments from CEO Tarek Mansour.

The collaboration targets the fast-growing sports insurance and reinsurance industry, currently valued at around $9 billion annually and projected to double by 2030.

The market covers a range of risks, including brand sponsorship guarantees, game cancellations, player compensation structures, and performance-based bonuses.

Game Point Capital issues hundreds of millions of dollars in sports insurance each year. One of its most in-demand products is team and player performance bonus insurance, which protects teams against large payouts triggered by milestones such as playoff appearances, championship wins, or statistical achievements.

Kalshi undercuts traditional reinsurance pricing

Last week, Game Point executed two basketball-related performance bonus hedges on Kalshi’s exchange. One contract covered a bonus tied to a team making the postseason, priced at 6% on Kalshi compared with roughly 12–13% in the over-the-counter (OTC) market.

Another hedge, linked to advancing to the second round, was priced at 2% on Kalshi versus approximately 7–8% OTC.

Traditionally, insurers seeking to offload risk negotiate directly with reinsurance providers such as Lloyd’s of London. These OTC arrangements often involve bilateral negotiations, limited transparency, and higher pricing, particularly for volatile or higher-risk contracts.

Mansour argued that exchanges offer a competitive alternative by expanding liquidity and allowing multiple counterparties to bid in an open market, improving price discovery and lowering costs.

Kalshi’s pitch hinges on liquidity. During the recent Super Bowl, the exchange could have processed a $22 million trade without significantly moving market prices, according to the CEO.

With that depth, Kalshi expects to handle tens of millions of dollars in similar hedging transactions from Game Point in the coming months, positioning prediction markets as an emerging tool in institutional sports risk management.

Crypto Daybook Americas will not be published on Monday, Feb. 16 due to the Presidents’ Day holiday in the U.S. We will be back on Feb. 17.

By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Bitcoin BTC$67,045.92 is on track for a fourth straight weekly decline in its longest negative streak since mid-November. The largest cryptocurrency has lost 1.7% in the past 24 hours and 4.8% since Monday morning.

The broader CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) fell 2% in a market that, according to Bitwise research analyst Danny Nelson, is mostly driven by fear. Indeed, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index has now been in “extreme fear” territory for almost two weeks.

“The market’s main driver right now is fear. Fear that we’ll go lower,” Nelson told CoinDesk. “In a market like this, good news doesn’t register with investors. If they see an exit ramp, they’re taking it.”

To illustrate his point, Nelson pointed to the reaction to Uniswap’s UNI$3.3158 25% increase after the world’s largest asset manager, BlackRock (BLK), said it was making shares of its $2.2 billion tokenized U.S. treasury fund BUIDL tradable on the decentralized exchange. The token has now given back the gains made after that announcement.

“Sellers bearish on the market’s short-term direction overwhelmed the bulls betting that institutional adoption will drive value long-term,” he said.

Earlier this week, stronger U.S. payroll data and a falling unemployment rate prompted traders to rethink rate-cut expectations for the year. Further guidance may come later today in the form of inflation figures for the world’s largest economy.

The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January is forecast to show 2.5% year-over-year inflation.

Adding to that uncertainty is concern over a partial U.S. government shutdown. Odds of that occurring tomorrow are now around 90% on prediction market Kalshi. If one materializes, expect even more volatility amid thin trading. Stay alert!

Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today

What to Watch

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.

• Crypto
• Macro
  • Feb. 13, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. core inflation rate YoY for January (Prev. 2.6%); MoM Est. 0.3% (Prev. 0.2%)
  • Feb. 13, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. inflation rate YoY for January (Prev. 2.7%); MoM Est. 0.3% (Prev. 0.3%)
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
  • Feb. 13: Trump Media & Tech Group (DJT), post-market
  • Feb. 13: HIVE Digital Technologies (HIVE), post-market, -$0.07

Token Events

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.

• Governance votes & calls
• Unlocks
  • Feb. 15: Connex CONX$11.33 to unlock 1.56% of its circulating supply worth $15 million.
• Token Launches

Conferences

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.

Market Movements

• BTC is up 1.75% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday at $66,933.65 (24hrs: -0.83%)
• ETH is up 2.05% at $1,961.15 (24hrs: -0.97%)
• CoinDesk 20 is up 1.48% at 1,913.46 (24hrs: -1.96%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 15 bps at 2.85%
• BTC funding rate is at 0.0019% (2.0947% annualized) on Binance

• DXY is up 0.13% at 97.05
• Gold futures are up 1.41% at $4,993.10
• Silver futures are up 3.65% at $78.30
• Nikkei 225 closed down 1.21% at 56,941.97
• Hang Seng closed down 1.72% at 26,567.12
• FTSE 100 is up 0.12% at 10,414.44
• Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.16% at 6,001.38
• DJIA closed on Thursday down 1.34% at 49,451.98
• S&P 500 closed down 1.57% at 6,832.76
• Nasdaq Composite closed down 2.03% at 22,597.15
• S&P/TSX Composite closed down 2.37% at 32,465.30
• S&P 40 Latin America closed down 1.71% at 3,741.30
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is down 7 bps at 4.10%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.27% at 6,832.50
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.29% at 24,696.00
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are down 0.33% at 49,358.00

Bitcoin Stats

• BTC Dominance: 59.01% (+0.41%)
• Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.02923 (-0.55%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,027 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $33.55
• Total fees: 2.55 BTC / $170,716
• CME Futures Open Interest: 116,875 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 13.5 oz.
• BTC vs gold market cap: 4.48%

Technical Analysis

• Bitcoin remains pressured below the 200-week exponential moving average of $68,324.
• A confirmed weekly close below this level historically signals a further 20%-25% capitulation.
• The would take it toward the $51,000–$54,000 range before a bottom forms

Crypto Equities

• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Thursday at $141.09 (-7.90%), +5.87% at $149.37 in pre-market
• Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $56.63 (-2.13%), +1.71% at $57.60
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $20.15 (-1.23%)
• Bullish (BLSH): closed at $31.71 (-0.53%), +0.28% at $31.80
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $7.25 (-4.10%), +1.10% at $7.33
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $14.20 (-4.05%), +0.85% at $14.32
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $17.48 (-3.37%), +0.11% at $17.50
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.31 (-3.22%), +1.18% at $9.42
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $40.10 (-3.70%)
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $10.19 (+1.09%)

Crypto Treasury Companies

• Strategy (MSTR): closed at $123.00 (-2.44%), +1.54% at $124.89
• Strive (ASST): closed at $7.70 (-4.82%), +0.52% at $7.74
• SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $6.54 (-1.21%), +1.07% at $6.61
• Upexi (UPXI): closed at $0.74 (-8.82%)
• Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.03 (-3.74%)

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

• Daily net flows: -$410.2 million
• Cumulative net flows: $54.3 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~1.27 million

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily net flows: -$113.1 million
• Cumulative net flows: $11.67 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~5.8 million

Source: Farside Investors

While You Were Sleeping

Cryptocurrency flows to services linked with suspected human trafficking surged 85% year over year in 2025.

The findings come from a new report by blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis, which highlighted that the intersection of cryptocurrency and suspected human trafficking expanded markedly last year.

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Which Crypto Assets Are Most Used in Suspected Human Trafficking Networks?

The report outlined four primary categories of suspected crypto-facilitated human trafficking. This includes Telegram-based “international escort” services, forced labor recruitment linked to scam compounds, prostitution networks, and child sexual abuse material vendors (CSAM). 

“The intersection of cryptocurrency and suspected human trafficking intensified in 2025, with total transaction volume reaching hundreds of millions of dollars across identified services, an 85% year-over-year (YoY) increase. The dollar amounts significantly understate the human toll of these crimes, where the true cost is measured in lives impacted rather than money transferred,” Chainalysis wrote.

According to the report, payment methods varied across categories. International escort services and prostitution networks used stablecoins.

“The ‘international escort services are tightly integrated with Chinese-language money laundering networks. These networks rapidly facilitate the conversion of USD stablecoins into local currencies, potentially blunting concerns that assets held in stablecoins might be frozen,” Chainalysis noted.

CSAM vendors have historically relied more heavily on Bitcoin (BTC). However, Bitcoin’s dominance has declined with the rise of alternative Layer 1 networks. 

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In 2025, while these networks continue to accept mainstream cryptocurrencies for payments, they increasingly turn to Monero  (XMR) to launder proceeds. According to Chainalysis,

“Instant exchangers, which provide rapid and anonymous cryptocurrency swapping without KYC requirements, play a crucial role in this process.”

The Dual Role of Crypto in Human Trafficking-Linked Transactions

Chainalysis noted that the surge in cryptocurrency flows to services linked with suspected human trafficking is not occurring in isolation. Instead, it mirrors the rapid expansion of Southeast Asia–based scam compounds, online casinos and gambling platforms, and Chinese-language money laundering (CMLN) and guarantee networks operating primarily through Telegram. 

Together, these entities form a fast-growing regional illicit ecosystem with global reach. According to the report, Chinese-language services operating across mainland China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and multiple Southeast Asian countries exhibit advanced payment processing capabilities and extensive cross-border networks. 

Furthermore, geographic analysis reveals that while many trafficking-linked services are based in Southeast Asia, cryptocurrency inflows originate globally. Significant transaction flows were traced to countries including the United States, Brazil, the United Kingdom, Spain, and Australia. 

“While traditional trafficking routes and patterns persist, these Southeast Asian services exemplify how cryptocurrency technology enables trafficking operations to facilitate payments and obscure money flows across borders more efficiently than ever before. The diversity of destination countries suggests these networks have developed sophisticated infrastructure for global operations,” the report read.

At the same time, Chainalysis stressed that blockchain transparency offers investigators deeper visibility into trafficking-related financial activity. 

Unlike cash transactions, which leave little to no audit trail, blockchain-based transfers generate permanent, traceable records. This creates new opportunities for detection and disruption that are not possible with traditional payment systems.

Bitget, the world’s largest Universal Exchange (UEX), has launched Gracy AI, the first animated digital human in crypto designed to bring real leadership thinking into one-on-one conversations with users.

Built around the experience and decision-making approach of Bitget CEO Gracy Chen, Gracy AI moves beyond charts and short-term signals. Instead, it gives users a space to talk through market cycles, strategy, career questions, and mindset with an AI that reflects how a real industry leader thinks about growth, risk, and long-term direction.

The launch marks a shift in how exchanges use AI. Rather than acting as another data layer, Gracy AI focuses on interpretation and context. Users can ask about where the industry is heading, how to think through uncertainty, or how to approach decision-making when markets are noisy. The goal is not to predict prices, but to help users think more clearly about them.

“Honestly, I still find it a little funny to see an AI avatar of me on screen,” said Gracy Chen, CEO at Bitget. She added:

“But a big part of my job is listening to user concerns, getting close to the details, and helping people understand what’s really happening in the market. The team built Gracy AI around that same approach so more users can connect, learn and grow feeling supported by me and the team.”

Gracy AI is part of Bitget’s broader AI roadmap as part of its UEX transformation. After GetAgent established Bitget’s AI capability in analytics and decision support, Gracy AI represents the more human-facing side of that strategy, where technology supports understanding rather than just execution.

To mark the launch, Bitget is rolling out themed Gracy AI conversations tied to moments of reflection and renewal. Valentine’s Day introduces self-care-focused chats, while Chinese New Year features guided conversations around goals, perspective, and new beginnings. These campaigns are designed to make AI interaction feel personal, timely, and useful, rather than transactional.

The Gracy AI launch builds on Bitget’s broader push to make AI genuinely useful for everyday traders. From AI-powered market insights and smart trading tools to products like GetAgent, which helps users navigate volatility with clearer signals and context,

Bitget has steadily integrated AI to reduce friction and improve decision-making. Gracy AI extends that approach by putting experience, perspective, and real-time intelligence into a more accessible, conversational layer for users. As Bitget continues to evolve into a Universal Exchange, Gracy AI reflects a simple idea: better tools matter, but better thinking matters more. 

Experience Gracy AI here.

About Bitget

Bitget is the world’s largest Universal Exchange (UEX), serving over 125 million users and offering access to over 2M crypto tokens, 100+ tokenized stocks, ETFs, commodities, FX, and precious metals such as gold. The ecosystem is committed to helping users trade smarter with its AI agent, which co-pilots trade execution. Bitget is driving crypto adoption through strategic partnerships with LALIGA and MotoGP™. Aligned with its global impact strategy, Bitget has joined hands with UNICEF to support blockchain education for 1.1 million people by 2027. Bitget currently leads in the tokenized TradFi market, providing the industry’s lowest fees and highest liquidity across 150 regions worldwide.

For more information, visit: Website | Twitter | Telegram | LinkedIn | Discord

Risk Warning: Digital asset prices are subject to fluctuation and may experience significant volatility. Investors are advised to only allocate funds they can afford to lose. The value of any investment may be impacted, and there is a possibility that financial objectives may not be met, nor the principal investment recovered. Independent financial advice should always be sought, and personal financial experience and standing carefully considered. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Bitget accepts no liability for any potential losses incurred. Nothing contained herein should be construed as financial advice. For further information, please refer to our Terms of Use.

Ethereum is trying to stabilize after weeks of heavy selling. The price is holding near the $1,950 zone, up around 6% from its recent low. At the same time, the biggest Ethereum whales have started accumulating aggressively.

But short-term sellers and derivatives traders remain cautious, creating a growing tug-of-war around the next move.

Biggest Ethereum Whales Accumulate as Bullish Divergence Stays Intact

On-chain data shows that the largest Ethereum holders are positioning for a rebound. Since February 9, addresses holding between 1 million and 10 million ETH have increased their holdings from around 5.17 million ETH to nearly 6.27 million ETH. That is an addition of more than 1.1 million ETH, worth roughly $2 billion at current prices.

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Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

This accumulation aligns with a bullish technical signal on the 12-hour chart.

Between January 25 and February 12, Ethereum’s price made a lower low, while the Relative Strength Index, or RSI, formed a higher low. RSI measures momentum by comparing recent gains and losses. When price falls, but RSI rises, it often signals weakening selling pressure.

This bullish divergence suggests downside momentum is fading.

The structure remains valid as long as Ethereum holds above $1,890, as the same signal flashed even on February 11 and still seems to be holding. A breakdown below this level would invalidate the divergence for now and weaken the rebound case.

For now, whales appear to be betting that this support will hold.

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Short-Term Holders Are Selling?

While large investors are accumulating, short-term holders are behaving very differently.

The Spent Coins Age Band for the 7-day to 30-day cohort has surged sharply. Since February 9 (the same time when the whale pickup started), this metric has risen from around 14,000 to nearly 107,000, an increase of more than 660%. This indicator tracks how many recently acquired coins are being moved. Rising values usually signal possible profit-taking and distribution.

In simple terms, short-term traders are exiting positions. This pattern appeared earlier in February as well. On February 5, a spike in short-term coin activity occurred near $2,140. Within one day, Ethereum dropped by around 13%.

That history shows how aggressive selling from this group can quickly reverse moves. As long as short-term holders remain active sellers, upside moves are likely to face resistance.

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Derivatives Data Shows Heavy Bearish Positioning

Derivatives markets are reinforcing this cautious outlook. Current liquidation data shows nearly $3.06 billion in short positions stacked against only about $755 million in long leverage. This creates a heavily bearish imbalance with almost 80% of the market betting on the short side.

On one hand, this setup creates fuel for a potential short squeeze if prices rise. On the other hand, it shows that most traders still expect further weakness. This keeps momentum muted but keeps the bounce hope alive if the whale buying pushes the prices up, even a little bit, crossing past key clusters.

On-chain cost basis data helps explain why Ethereum struggles to break higher. Around $1,980, roughly 1.58% of the circulating supply, was acquired. Near $2,020, another 1.23% of supply sits at breakeven. These zones represent large groups of holders waiting to exit without losses.

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When price approaches these levels, selling pressure increases as investors try to recover capital. This has repeatedly capped recent bounces. Only a strong leverage-driven move or short squeeze would likely be powerful enough to push through these supply clusters.

Until then, these zones remain major barriers.

Key Ethereum Price Levels To Track Now

With whales buying and sellers resisting, Ethereum price levels now matter more than narratives.

On the upside, the first major resistance sits near $2,010. A clean 12-hour close above this level would increase the probability of short liquidations. And it sits near the key supply cluster.

If that happens, Ethereum could target $2,140 next, a strong resistance zone with multiple touchpoints. It also sits around 10% from the current levels. On the downside, $1,890 remains the critical support. A break below this level would invalidate the bullish divergence and signal renewed downside pressure. Below that, the next major support sits near $1,740.

As long as Ethereum holds above $1,890 and continues testing $2,010, the rebound structure remains intact. A sustained breakdown below support would cancel the current recovery attempt.

A US federal judge in Virginia sentenced the chief executive of Praetorian Group International to 20 years in prison for running a $200 million cryptocurrency investment scheme that defrauded tens of thousands of investors.

According to the Department of Justice, 61-year-old Ramil Ventura Palafox, a dual US and Philippine citizen, was convicted of wire fraud and money laundering for what prosecutors described as a Ponzi scheme that falsely promised daily returns of up to 3% from Bitcoin trading. 

The US Attorney’s Office for the Eastern District of Virginia said investors poured over $201 million into PGI between December 2019 and October 2021, including at least 8,198 Bitcoin (BTC) valued at about $171.5 million at the time. According to prosecutors, victims suffered losses of at least $62.7 million. 

The sentencing concludes the criminal case brought by the DOJ and follows a parallel civil action by the Securities and Exchange Commission, marking one of the larger crypto-related fraud cases in recent years by investor count and funds involved. 

Fake trading claims and luxury spending

Court filings said Palafox told investors PGI was engaged in large-scale Bitcoin trading capable of generating consistent daily profits. 

However, prosecutors said the company was not trading at a level sufficient to support the promised returns. Instead, new investor funds were used to pay earlier participants. 

Authorities said Palafox operated an online portal that falsely displayed steady gains, giving investors the impression their accounts were growing. He also used a multilevel marketing structure, offering referral incentives to recruit new members. 

The DOJ said Palafox spent millions in investor funds on personal expenses, including $3 million on luxury vehicles, over $6 million on homes in Las Vegas and Los Angeles, and hundreds of thousands of dollars on penthouse suites and high-end retail purchases.

Authorities said he also transferred at least $800,000 and 100 BTC to a family member. 

Related: Sam Bankman-Fried claims Biden DOJ silenced witnesses during FTX trial

Civil charges and international reach

The scheme began to unravel as regulators scrutinized PGI’s trading claims and fund flows.

In April 2025, the Securities and Exchange Commission filed a civil complaint alleging that Palafox misrepresented PGI’s Bitcoin trading activity and used new investor money to pay earlier participants.

The complaint said PGI promoted an AI-powered trading platform and guaranteed daily returns despite lacking trading operations capable of generating those profits.

Federal prosecutors in the Eastern District of Virginia later unsealed criminal charges accusing Palafox of wire fraud and money laundering arising from the same conduct. 

Authorities had seized the company’s website in 2021, and related operations were shut down in the United Kingdom, signaling cross-border enforcement scrutiny before the US criminal case advanced.

The DOJ said victims may be eligible for restitution and directed them to the US Attorney’s Office website for information on filing claims.