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90% Rally Setup Returns, But With a Twist

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Divergence Setup

Polygon price is showing fresh signs of recovery after weeks of steady selling. Since February 11, POL is up nearly 13%, and over the past 24 hours, it has gained around 5.4%, holding most of its rebound near $0.095.

At first glance, the structure looks similar to the setup that triggered Polygon’s 90% rally earlier this year. Price is stabilizing, momentum is improving, and buyers are active near support. But this time, one critical element is missing. The last rally began after sellers were fully flushed out. This time, that flush has not happened yet.

POL Price Repeats the Old Reversal Pattern, But Without a Clean Seller Flush

Before the January rally, Polygon formed a very clear bottom. Between December and early January, the POL price printed a sharp lower low in a single move. Sellers capitulated. Weak hands exited. That created a clean base for buyers to step in.

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This time, the structure is different.

Between January 31 and February 11, POL again made a lower low near $0.087, while the Relative Strength Index, or RSI, formed a higher low. RSI measures buying and selling strength, and this bullish divergence usually signals that selling pressure is weakening. But instead of one decisive breakdown candle, POL tested the same support area twice.

Divergence Setup
Divergence Setup: TradingView

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Two separate candles touched the $0.087 zone. This creates a “lower-low zone” instead of a clean lower low.

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That matters. When a market prints a single deep low, it usually means sellers have given up, hinting at exhaustion. When the price keeps revisiting the same level, it means sellers are still active. Supply has not been fully absorbed yet. So even though the technical pattern looks similar, the psychology is different.

The market has stabilized, but it has not been fully cleansed. That unfinished seller flush is the foundation of the entire twist.

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Muted Leverage and Rising Shorts Reflect Unfinished Selling Pressure

This incomplete flush is clearly visible in the derivatives data. During the January rally, leverage exploded early.

Open interest on Binance jumped from around $16.6 million to over $40 million, rising more than 140% in a few days. Traders rushed into long positions as soon as the price turned. This time, that has not happened. Since February 11, while POL gained nearly 13%, open interest has stayed near $18.80 million. There is no strong buildup of leverage yet. Possibly hinting at low conviction.

Open Interest Steady
Open Interest Steady: Santiment

More importantly, funding rates are now negative, near -0.012. Funding rates show which side dominates futures markets. Negative rates mean short traders are paying longs. That signals growing bearish positioning.

In January, funding was positive. Traders were betting aggressively on upside. Now, shorts are building.

This fits perfectly with the price structure. Because sellers have not been flushed out, traders are still comfortable betting against the rally. They see unfinished downside risk. So instead of chasing longs, many are positioning for pullbacks. That lends a major hit to the supposed rally’s conviction.

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Funding Rate
Funding Rate: Santiment

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This keeps leverage restrained and momentum controlled. The rally is moving forward, but under constant pressure.

Whale Accumulation Is Supporting Price, But Not Forcing Capitulation

While traders remain cautious, large holders are behaving differently. Since early February, whale holdings have risen from around 7.5 billion to nearly 8.75 billion POL, an increase of about 16%. This shows that long-term buyers are accumulating quietly.

Their buying is the main reason the price keeps rebounding from the $0.087 area.

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POL Whales
POL Whales: Santiment

But whale accumulation has another effect. It absorbs supply without triggering panic. Instead of forcing weak sellers out, whales are slowly taking their coins. That stabilizes the price but delays capitulation. It is worth noting that during the last early-2026 rally, these Polygon whales hardly increased their stash.

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So the market ends up in between:

  • Sellers are still present (not flushed out)
  • Buyers are active
  • No one is fully in control of the Polygon price

This is why the price is rising gradually, not explosively. And that might limit the rally potential going forward.

Key Polygon Price Levels Will Decide Whether Sellers Finally Get Flushed

With unfinished selling pressure still in the system, price levels now matter more than patterns. On the upside, the key level is $0.11.

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A clean break above $0.118 would signal that remaining sellers are being overwhelmed. From current levels, that would be another 24% move. It would likely attract leverage and weaken short positions, finally completing the flush. Above that, targets open toward $0.137 and $0.186.

Polygon Price Analysis
Polygon Price Analysis: TradingView

On the downside, the critical support zone is $0.083-$0.087. If POL breaks below that, the lower-low setup fails, and a new one starts forming. That would confirm that sellers still have control and that the unfinished flush is playing out. In that case, the price could slide toward $0.072 and $0.061.

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Crypto World

Fed’s Barr Calls for Balanced US Stablecoin Rules Under GENIUS Act

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Federal Reserve, Legislation, United States, Stablecoin, Genius Act

US Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr said Tuesday that clearer US stablecoin rules could speed the market’s growth, but warned that regulators still need to address money laundering risks, bank run risks and consumer safeguards as they implement the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act.

Speaking at a Federalist Society event on stablecoin regulation, Barr said the law provides “needed clarity” for issuers, but that “a great deal will depend on how federal and state regulators implement the statute.”

Barr said stablecoins are still used mainly for crypto trading and as a US dollar store of value in some foreign markets, though they could also lower remittance costs, speed up trade finance processing and help firms manage treasury operations. He also highlighted the risk of bad actors buying stablecoins in secondary markets without identity checks, and said issuers may be tempted to stretch for yield in reserve assets in ways that undermine confidence during stress.

Barr’s speech also cast the stablecoin debate in historical terms. He said private money has a “long and painful history” when safeguards are weak, pointing to the Free Banking Era in the US, the Panic of 1907, money market fund stress during the global financial crisis and COVID-19 shock, and more recent stablecoin valuation pressure as reasons to be cautious about any asset marketed as redeemable at par on demand.

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Barr’s remarks come as US agencies move from legislation to rule-writing. The US Treasury Department opened a second round of public comment on implementing the GENIUS Act in September 2025, saying the law must be translated into rules that both encourage innovation and address illicit finance, consumer protections and financial stability risks.

Federal Reserve, Legislation, United States, Stablecoin, Genius Act
Brief Remarks on Stablecoins. Source: Federal Reserve

Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman told lawmakers in February that banking regulators were already working on capital and liquidity rules for stablecoin issuers, and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation chair Travis Hill said in March that the agency does not expect stablecoins to receive deposit insurance under the law.

Related: Who gets the yield? CLARITY Act becomes fight over onchain dollars

Barr warns GENIUS Act rollout will test stablecoin safeguards

Barr’s speech signals where the implementation fights may land. He flagged reserve asset rules, regulatory arbitrage, the scope of issuer activities beyond issuance, capital and liquidity requirements, Anti-Money Laundering (AML) checks and consumer protection standards as the key issues still to be settled.

The GENIUS Act, signed into law on July 18, 2025, created a federal framework for payment stablecoins in the United States. The law requires issuers to maintain one-to-one backing with reserve assets such as US dollars and Treasury bills, and is expected to take effect 18 months after signing or 120 days after final agency rules are completed.

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Magazine: How crypto laws changed in 2025 — and how they’ll change in 2026