EUR/USD has regained ground in recent sessions, with the pair trading near 1.17 as broad-based weakness in the US dollar continues to dominate the foreign-exchange market. The main driver remains the changing monetary-policy outlook, with investors focused on whether the Federal Reserve can maintain a restrictive stance while the US economy shows signs of slowing.

The dollar faces a key test this week as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh prepares to deliver his first speech at Jackson Hole on Friday. Persistent inflation and rising long-term Treasury yields could encourage a hawkish tone, particularly if Warsh signals that rate cuts in September are far from guaranteed. Conversely, weaker US growth or softer inflation data would reinforce expectations of easier monetary policy and could extend the dollar’s decline.

In Europe, euro-area inflation rose to 2.9% in July, keeping price pressures above the ECB’s 2% target. The ECB has kept interest rates unchanged since June, but higher energy prices and renewed inflation risks could limit the scope for further easing.

With EUR/USD trading near multi-month highs, the Jackson Hole symposium and upcoming US PCE inflation data could determine whether the euro can extend its advance or whether a hawkish Fed response triggers a renewed recovery in the dollar.

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD

As the daily EUR/USD chart shows, the pair has broken decisively above the descending trendline that had capped price action since the February highs, marking a significant shift in the medium-term structure.

The pair is now trading around 1.1665, comfortably above both the 100-period EMA at 1.1546 and the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement at 1.1579. The breakout has also lifted EUR/USD away from the 1.1537–1.1495 support area, leaving the 1.1714 Fibonacci resistance level as the next major test.

Bullish Scenario

If buyers can maintain control above the 1.1579 Fibonacci level and the 100-period EMA, the bullish structure remains intact.

A break above 1.1714 would open the way towards the 1.1775–1.1800 resistance zone, where previous price action has repeatedly stalled. A sustained move above this area would strengthen the case for a broader recovery and suggest that the longer-term downtrend may have been decisively reversed.

Bearish Scenario

Conversely, a rejection at 1.1714 followed by a break below 1.1579 would weaken the current setup and expose the 100-period EMA around 1.1546, which is closely aligned with the 0.5 Fibonacci level at 1.1537.

A deeper decline through this confluence would bring the 0.618 retracement at 1.1495 into focus, followed by 1.1435 and the 0.786 Fibonacci level as the next downside references.

With EUR/USD testing major Fibonacci resistance after breaking above its descending trendline, the key question is whether buyers can turn the breakout into a sustained advance towards 1.1800, or whether resistance will once again send the pair back towards its key support zone.

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US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) posted their best weekly inflows in nearly 10 months, drawing close to $2 billion as Bitcoin’s price surged over the same period. According to SoSoValue data, the week ending Friday saw $1.92 billion in net inflows—the strongest result since early 2026.

The comeback in demand appears to have been broad rather than isolated. ETF analyst Nate Geraci said on Sunday that spot Ether ETFs also attracted roughly $700 million, with Bitcoin and Ether funds each posting their strongest weekly inflows since October 2025.

Key takeaways

• US spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $1.92 billion in net inflows for the week ending Friday, their strongest weekly performance in nearly 10 months, per SoSoValue.
• Bitcoin rose more than 20% over the week, briefly breaking above $79,000 after starting near $63,000, according to CoinGecko.
• Despite last week’s rally, US spot Bitcoin ETFs remain down for 2026 with about $2.91 billion in net outflows so far.
• BlackRock’s IBIT led the rebound with about $1.33 billion in net inflows across five consecutive trading days, according to Farside Investors.

Inflows rebound as Bitcoin accelerates

The latest ETF surge arrived after a stretch of uneven flows that had weighed on sentiment around the category. SoSoValue’s weekly figures show that capital returned quickly once spot Bitcoin gained momentum, with the week ending Friday delivering $1.92 billion in net inflows.

CoinGecko data cited in the report shows Bitcoin climbed more than 20% last week, moving from roughly $63,000 to briefly exceed $79,000 on Friday. That price strength matters because it often changes investor behavior at the margin—buyers become more willing to allocate into spot products when returns are visibly improving.

Geraci’s comments suggest the demand was not limited to Bitcoin alone. He said spot Ether ETFs drew about $700 million, and that both Bitcoin and Ether funds logged their strongest weekly inflows since October 2025.

2026 still shows persistent outflows

While last week was a clear improvement, the broader picture for 2026 remains negative. The report notes that US spot Bitcoin ETFs are down overall by about $2.91 billion in net outflows so far this year.

Flow patterns have been especially weak around mid-year. The funds recorded their heaviest monthly outflows in June at $4.51 billion, following $2.43 billion in withdrawals in May. In contrast, August has turned more supportive, with $2.38 billion in net inflows through Friday, making it the strongest inflow month of 2026 to date.

That contrast is important for investors watching whether the ETF complex is transitioning from a sell-the-rally posture to a sustained buying trend. A single strong week can happen within a broader downcycle, but sustained monthly inflows would signal a more durable shift.

The October 2025 inflow cycle—and why comparisons matter

Earlier ETF strength also preceded a major market shock. During the last significant inflow wave in October 2025, the funds attracted $3.42 billion. The report links that period to the Oct. 10 crypto market crash, which it says triggered the largest liquidation event in the industry’s history—wiping out about $19 billion in leveraged positions within 24 hours.

Bitcoin’s drawdown over the same broad interval provides additional context. Since Oct. 6, when the asset traded near $124,700, the report states Bitcoin has fallen roughly 38%.

These comparisons don’t imply a repeat outcome, but they do highlight a recurring dynamic: ETF inflows can accelerate during bullish price phases, yet high leverage in the broader market can still produce abrupt reversals. For traders and portfolio managers, the practical takeaway is that ETF flow strength should be assessed alongside overall market positioning and volatility, not treated as a standalone predictor.

IBIT drives the resurgence with shifting daily momentum

The rebound last week was heavily influenced by BlackRock’s IBIT. According to Farside Investors data cited in the report, IBIT accounted for about $1.33 billion in net inflows over five consecutive trading days.

The product’s daily flow profile also showed a noticeable ramp-up before cooling. The report states IBIT’s daily inflows rose from $160.2 million on Monday to $503 million on Thursday, before easing to $239.3 million on Friday.

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas characterized the flow sequence as a “classic Flipping the Bird pattern” and suggested it represented a bullish signal. While interpretations of daily flow patterns can vary, the market relevance is straightforward: when large allocations repeatedly enter an ETF on consecutive sessions, it often reflects active demand rather than a one-day reaction.

For readers tracking whether this week’s inflow surge is the start of a broader trend, IBIT’s trajectory is likely to remain a key point of observation—both in terms of whether consecutive inflow days persist and whether the category-wide momentum extends beyond one or two products.

Going forward, investors should watch whether August’s inflow strength continues and whether the weekly pattern holds in the coming sessions; the category is still net-negative for 2026 overall, so follow-through beyond a single standout week will be the clearest test of whether demand is truly regaining durability.

Key takeaways

• Bitcoin trades around $77,000 after gaining more than 23% last week, its strongest weekly performance since March 2023.
• Investors realized $1.72 billion in profits on Friday, the highest daily total since November 2024.
• US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $1.92 billion in weekly inflows, their strongest showing since October 2025.
• BTC faces immediate resistance at $78,490 and $80,000, with additional upside targets at $81,059, $87,599 and $88,990.

Bitcoin is trading around $77,000 on Monday after surging more than 23% last week, its strongest weekly gain since mid-March 2023.

The rally followed the US Treasury’s announcement that it would expand its debt buyback operations, improving sentiment across cryptocurrency markets.

Strong institutional demand also supported the advance, with US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recording their largest weekly inflows since October 2025.

However, on-chain data suggests some investors are taking profits as BTC approaches the psychologically important $80,000 level.

That selling activity could result in a temporary consolidation phase or a short-term pullback before Bitcoin attempts another move higher.

Bitcoin investors realize $1.72 billion in daily profits

CryptoQuant data shows Bitcoin holders realized approximately $1.72 billion in profits on Friday.

The figure marked the highest daily realized profit total since late November 2024. Last week’s rapid price increase moved many investors back into profitable territory, encouraging some holders to sell and secure their gains.

Historically, sharp increases in realized profits can precede a period of consolidation or a temporary correction as additional supply enters the market.

The profit-taking does not necessarily signal the end of Bitcoin’s broader recovery. However, it does indicate that the market may face increased selling pressure near major resistance levels.

Despite the increase in profit-taking, Bitcoin’s underlying spot demand has improved. CryptoQuant’s apparent demand metric has moved into positive territory after remaining negative since late February.

The shift suggests net buying interest has strengthened, potentially providing support even as some investors reduce their positions.

A sustained improvement in spot demand would help offset selling pressure and support the case for a continuation of Bitcoin’s rally.

However, traders will be watching whether buyers can maintain that momentum while BTC consolidates below $80,000.

Institutional investors played a significant role in last week’s price advance. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $1.92 billion in net inflows, according to SoSoValue data.

The figure represented the highest weekly inflow so far this year and the strongest since mid-October 2025.

Continued inflows could provide additional support for Bitcoin as it attempts to overcome nearby resistance.

Conversely, a slowdown in institutional demand may make it more difficult for BTC to sustain its recent gains, particularly while short-term momentum appears stretched.

BTC caces immediate resistance at $78,490

Bitcoin recently tested the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $78,490. The level is derived from the move between the August 2024 low near $49,000 and the October 2025 record high of $126,199.

A weekly close above $78,490 would strengthen the bullish technical outlook and could open the way toward the 50-week Simple Moving Average at $81,059.

Before reaching that level, Bitcoin must also clear the psychological resistance at $80,000.

If buyers push BTC above both barriers, the next major upside target would be the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $87,599.

The 100-week SMA near $88,990 represents another significant resistance level within the same price zone.

Bitcoin remains above its 200-week SMA at $64,571 following its recent breakout from a prolonged consolidation phase.

The weekly Relative Strength Index stands near 55, comfortably above the neutral level of 50.

This reading suggests that momentum has improved without yet reaching an extreme on the weekly timeframe.

The weekly Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator also remains bullish after recording a positive crossover in mid-July.

Rising green histogram bars suggest that upward momentum continues to build. Together, these indicators support the possibility of additional gains if Bitcoin can overcome resistance between $78,490 and $81,059.

The daily chart presents a more cautious picture despite Bitcoin’s strong overall structure.

BTC trades well above its 50-day, 100-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages, located at $66,786, $67,415 and $71,781, respectively.

However, the daily RSI has climbed to approximately 79, placing Bitcoin firmly in overbought territory.

Such readings do not automatically imply an imminent reversal, but they often indicate that a market may need to consolidate or retrace after a sharp advance.

The daily MACD remains positive, confirming that bullish momentum is still in place, although the strength of the recent move leaves BTC vulnerable to profit-taking.

If Bitcoin pulls back, the 200-day EMA near $71,781 represents the first major technical support level.

The psychological $70,000 mark is another important area that could attract buyers if selling pressure increases.

A deeper decline would expose the 100-day EMA at $67,415 and the 50-day EMA at $66,786.

The nearby horizontal support at $66,500 strengthens that broader demand zone. If those levels fail, Bitcoin could fall toward the next major support area around $62,300.

For now, BTC’s immediate outlook depends on whether buyers can absorb profit-taking and push the price above $78,490 and $80,000. A successful breakout would keep $81,059 and the $87,599 to $88,990 region in focus.

US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows surged last week after months of uneven flows, with investors pouring nearly $2 billion into the products amid a surge in Bitcoin’s price.

Bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.92 billion in net inflows during the week ending Friday, marking their strongest weekly performance in nearly 10 months, according to SoSoValue data.

ETF analyst Nate Geraci said Sunday that spot Ether ETFs also attracted about $700 million. He added that Bitcoin and Ether funds each posted their strongest weekly inflows since October 2025.

The renewed ETF demand came amid Bitcoin jumping more than 20% last week, briefly surging past $79,000 on Friday after starting the week near $63,000, according to CoinGecko.

Bitcoin ETFs remain in the red for 2026

Despite the latest surge, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded about $2.91 billion in net outflows so far in 2026.

The funds saw their heaviest monthly outflows in June at $4.51 billion, following $2.43 billion in withdrawals in May. August has brought $2.38 billion in net inflows through Friday, making it the strongest month for inflows so far this year.

Monthly spot Bitcoin ETF flows since October 2025. Source: SoSoValue

During the last major inflow wave in October 2025, the funds attracted $3.42 billion. The October inflows preceded the Oct. 10 crypto market crash, which triggered the largest liquidation event in the industry’s history, wiping out roughly $19 billion in leveraged positions within 24 hours.

Source: Quinten

Since Oct. 6, when Bitcoin traded near $124,700, its price has plummeted roughly 38%.

BlackRock’s IBIT flashes a “bullish signal”

BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) was responsible for much of last week’s resurgence, attracting about $1.33 billion in net inflows across five consecutive trading days, according to Farside Investors data.

IBIT’s daily inflows rose from $160.2 million on Monday to $503 million on Thursday, before easing to $239.3 million on Friday.

Source: Eric Balchunas

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas took to X to highlight what he described as a “classic Flipping the Bird pattern” in IBIT’s daily flows, adding that he viewed it as a bullish signal.

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