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Lilly likely to keep its upper hand

Even as Novo works to turn itself around after two bruising years marked by multiple setbacks, analysts say Lilly has several advantages that could help it maintain its spot at the top of the obesity drug market. 

“Lilly is in the leadership position, and we think that they will remain in this strong leadership position, given their substantial commercial advantage, their global initiative to globalize their products further, and then their advanced pipeline of novel candidates as well,” Leerink Partners analyst David Risinger said in an interview. 

Risinger expects Foundayo’s share of the oral GLP-1 market to continue growing, pointing to Lilly’s “tremendous commercial firepower” and greater spending capacity to promote the drug. But Risinger expects Foundayo to eventually dominate the pill market globally, in part because it should be less costly to manufacture at scale than the Wegovy pill.

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Foundayo is a small-molecule drug, which can be manufactured differently and more easily at scale than peptide drugs such as Novo’s Wegovy pill and existing injectable GLP-1s. While Foundayo leads to less weight loss on average than the Wegovy pill, it doesn’t carry any food and water restrictions, which could be a selling point for some patients. 

Novo executives this week did not directly answer questions about whether Foundayo is easier to manufacture and scale. Novo is investing billions in manufacturing facilities and, executives said this week, the company aims to be able to increase the number of patients on its GLP-1 drugs tenfold by 2030. Executives have repeatedly said supply is not an issue and that Novo will not face the same shortages it did with injectable versions in the earlier days of Ozempic and Wegovy. 

For Lilly, Zepbound’s higher efficacy than the original doses of Wegovy has also been key to securing its market share lead over Novo in the injectable space. Novo has sought to narrow that efficacy gap with a higher-dose version of Wegovy launched this year, which leads to roughly similar weight loss as Zepbound. 

But Lilly is not standing still. 

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The company has a pipeline of next-generation obesity drugs that could extend its lead beyond Zepbound and Foundayo, Risinger said. That includes retatrutide, a triple-agonist that targets three gut hormones and has produced greater weight loss than existing obesity drugs in clinical trials. Lilly plans to seek approval for the drug in the first quarter of 2027. 

Lilly is also developing a weekly injection that targets the amylin receptor, a pathway involved in appetite and satiety that differs from those targeted by existing treatments. Risinger said the drug has “much greater potential than the Street currently realizes,” particularly because a large population of patients does not tolerate or respond adequately to GLP-1 drugs.

“We’re quite enthusiastic about the company’s pipeline for follow-on agents beyond Zepbound and Foundayo,” Risinger said.

While investors have been laser-focused on the headline weight loss number of Novo and Lilly’s next-generation drugs, Novo sees a fragmented market ahead. 

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Chief Scientific Officer Martin Holst Lange told CNBC this week that the breadth of Novo’s future pipeline would give physicians and patients more options and increase uptake. The company is studying the effect of new drugs on factors like tolerability, muscle preservation, their effect on obesity-linked conditions, convenience and more.

 “We can’t do that with one single drug,” Lange said. 

Novo bets on its next generation 

Communications giant seeking deals with Opus Broadband and Octopus Investments

TalkTalk has confirmed it remains in “advanced discussions” with prospective buyers of its consumer and broadband divisions as the embattled telecoms company races to secure its future.

Britain’s fourth-largest broadband provider announced it was in the closing stages of finalising sales for its two arms, amid mounting speculation that it could be headed for administration should it fail to reach agreement on deals.

It said: “The company is now in the final stages of its sales process for the business and expects to conclude both transactions imminently.”

The heavily indebted firm is reported to employ approximately 900 staff and serves around 1.5 million customers.

It is understood the group continues to progress negotiations with rival Opus Broadband over a potential deal for the consumer arm TalkTalk, alongside talks with Octopus Investments regarding its wholesale operation PXC, reportedly valued at around £300 million.

However, a period of exclusivity with both bidders lapsed in recent days, following reports that Opus had slashed its offer for the consumer arm to £100 million amid protracted negotiations, fuelling concerns that the sales could collapse and force the company into administration.

The Government has been engaging with TalkTalk over the proposed sales, given the firm’s significance as a major broadband supplier to households and businesses, as well as its provision of telecoms services to the Ministry of Defence. It is understood that national security networks are partially reliant on TalkTalk’s PXC systems, although the MoD is reported to have backup measures in place to avoid dependence on a single provider.

TalkTalk was established by Sir Charles Dunstone in 2003 as a subsidiary of Carphone Warehouse.

Its shareholders, including chairman Sir Charles and lender Ares Management, are understood to be engaged in negotiations and may inject additional capital if agreements with Opus and Octopus collapse.

The transactions are complicated by the consumer business’s reliance on infrastructure operated by PXC.

A transaction to offload PXC was therefore required to facilitate the sale of the TalkTalk consumer operation.

Sir Charles, who remains a significant shareholder in TalkTalk, supported a £1.1 billion deal to take TalkTalk private in December 2020, spearheaded by its then second largest investor, hedge fund Toscafund, and private equity house Penta Capital.

This resulted in its delisting in 2021, concluding an 11-year presence on the London market, but also burdened it with substantial debt.

The company has also faced challenges amid an increasingly competitive marketplace in recent years, with so-called altnet rivals emerging and undercutting many of the established operators.

Eighty-three per cent of businesses using artificial intelligence in London and the South East report greater efficiency as a result, according to new research from NatWest, which found that just 6 per cent of current business users nationally have reached the stage where AI is transforming how their organisation operates.

In London, 81 per cent of businesses using AI report stronger innovation, and around seven in 10 say the technology is contributing to higher revenue and profitability, the bank’s flagship report found.

In the South East, 75 per cent of businesses using AI report increased innovation, and around two-thirds say AI is supporting stronger commercial performance.

NatWest said the results reflect the strengths of a regional economy built on sectors such as financial services, professional services, technology, life sciences and other knowledge-intensive industries.

Across the UK, 44 per cent of businesses already use AI, according to the report, with a further 41 per cent planning to adopt it within five years.

The bank said the biggest opportunity is still ahead, pointing to the small share of users that have reached the most advanced stage of adoption.

Separately, the Office for National Statistics reported in July that around 35 per cent of UK businesses with 10 or more employees were using AI by June 2026, up from around 12 per cent in late 2023, with only 10 per cent reporting extensive use across their operations.

Other recent surveys have also measured AI adoption. Research from Simply Business earlier this month found that AI use among UK small businesses had more than doubled to 47 per cent, while PwC warned in April that UK firms risked falling behind global leaders on AI investment and returns.

The NatWest report argues that technology alone will not determine which businesses succeed, and that trust is increasingly seen as a competitive advantage.

Among NatWest retail customers surveyed, 81 per cent said the ability to reach a real person when needed is the most important trust factor, while 77 per cent said they value reliability, human oversight and transparency around data use.

According to the bank, the findings suggest that businesses which retain human judgement, communicate openly about their use of AI and prioritise customer confidence will be best placed to realise the technology’s potential.

Catherine van Weenen, chair of the London and South East board at NatWest, said: “London and the South East are already seeing the benefits of AI, with businesses reporting stronger productivity, innovation and growth. For a region with strengths in sectors such as professional services, financial services and technology, the opportunity is significant.

“But the report also shows there is much more potential to unlock. While many businesses are experimenting with AI, relatively few have embedded it across their operations.”

She added: “Realising that opportunity will require people to remain at the heart of how AI is adopted. Trust matters. Businesses want the benefits of AI, but they also want human expertise, oversight and transparency. That’s why NatWest is helping businesses build the skills, confidence and connections they need to turn AI’s potential into long-term growth for London and the South East.”

Through the NatWest Accelerator, the bank said it will deliver 5,000 AI learning and adoption engagements across the UK over the next 12 months, aimed at helping businesses move from experimentation to impact.

In London and the South East, the support includes practical training, expert support, access to finance and the bank’s regional innovation network, alongside partnerships with universities including Oxford and Brighton.

The commitment follows NatWest’s move earlier this year to put all 60,000 of its own staff through AI ethics training, developed with the University of Edinburgh.

About the author

Amy Ingham

Amy Ingham is a reporter at Business Matters, covering UK business news with a focus on breaking news, business policy, late payments and insolvency. She joined the magazine in 2026 after completing the NCTJ Diploma in Journalism at Harlow College’s journalism school. Her recent reporting includes British Steel’s nationalisation and its impact on SME suppliers, the decline in late payments by large firms, and Insolvency Service director disqualifications. Reach her at aingham@cbmeg.co.uk.

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When Greg Bradley started the his gym equipment company 14 years ago, someone told him he would never sell outside the island of Ireland.

“I remember thinking, ‘I’m going to prove you wrong’,” he said. “Thankfully, we have been able to do that.”

BLK BOX is based in Newtownabbey – but it has secured contracts with high-profile customers all over the world, from sports teams like Manchester United to chains like PureGym.

Bradley is just one of many success stories, with official figures showing economic activity in Northern Ireland in the second quarter of this year grew faster than the UK and Republic of Ireland.

BLK BOX works internationally across the EU and markets like the US, Sri Lanka, Maldives, India, Australia and has grown its workforce to 180 staff.

Bradley said Covid had made people realise the importance of their health and “a lot of young people are into going to the gym”.

“We have won high profile contracts and expanding internationally across France, Spain, Germany and other countries,” he told BBC News NI.

He added that the Windsor Framework had also been advantageous compared to English competitors.

“We’ve been able to win a contract with a large French gym chain, Stade Français rugby team, so it’s actually worked out good for us and we are really doubling down on that.

“There’s still a bit of an education process with it, not everyone knows that we can ship frictionlessly across Europe, they are a bit scared of tariffs but once you explain it, everyone is really interested.”

Available for over a year

What’s next for trade, tariffs and AI after Presidents Trump and Xi met at the White House? We examine what was agreed, whether tensions between the world’s two biggest economies are easing, and what it could mean for technology, business and global trade. Vishala Sri-Pathma is joined by Henry Wang from the Center for China and Globalization and the AI researcher and author Stephanie Hare.

Producer: Josh Martin

You can email the team: businessdaily@bbc.co.uk

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