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Brexit Has Made UK Inflation Worse, Says Bank of England Economist

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Brexit regret has reached record levels, according to new polling which said just 9% of Brits consider it to be more of a success than a failure.

Brexit has made inflation harder to control in Britain and left the country exposed to “self-sustaining” price rises, according to the Bank of England’s chief economist, Huw Pill.

In remarks that will resonate with the small and medium-sized firms still wrestling with stubborn cost pressures, Pill said policymakers had found it tougher to rein in the pace of price rises since the 2016 vote to leave the European Union.

Speaking at a conference in Uzbekistan, Pill argued that the structural overhaul of Britain’s labour and goods markets brought about by Brexit had reshaped the economy in ways the Bank was “still learning about” and “still digesting”.

“My own view is that those changes have led us to a structure which is more prone to this sort of self-sustaining momentum in pricing, which can lead to greater inflation persistence,” he said.

Pill pointed to two forces in particular: the new trade barriers thrown up between Britain and its largest trading partner, and the end of the free movement of workers, which has drained the pool of available labour in sectors that long leaned on European staff.

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The numbers lend weight to the argument. UK inflation has averaged roughly 3.6 per cent since the referendum in June 2016, and has dipped below the Bank’s 2 per cent target in only one month over the past five years. Over the same period, German inflation has averaged 2.5 per cent and French inflation 1.9 per cent, according to the Bank of England’s own analysis.

The picture is not entirely one-sided. Britain formally left the EU in 2020, just before the pandemic shut down much of the economy and triggered a wave of state support that fuelled demand. Inflation then surged to a 41-year high of 11.1 per cent in October 2022, as savings amassed during lockdown were unleashed at the very moment Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent energy prices soaring. Even so, that peak sat above the 8.8 per cent reached in Germany and the 6.3 per cent seen in France.

Pill’s intervention lands only weeks after Andrew Bailey, the Bank’s governor, said the institution had been proved right in its long-standing warnings that Brexit would damage the economy. Bailey has urged the UK to rebuild its trade ties with the EU, arguing that shrinking the markets Britain trades with inevitably weighs on growth.

“I think the level of activity and growth in the economy has been lower,” Bailey said. “If you reduce the size of the markets that we trade with, so we reduce our export markets, then that does tend to have a negative impact on growth. It tends to have a negative impact on productivity and the size of the market.”

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The comments build on a growing body of evidence. Company-level data has suggested that Brexit has knocked around 6 per cent off the UK economy, a figure that chimes with earlier estimates that Brexit dealt a 5 per cent blow to output.

The labour squeeze hits SMEs hardest

Britain marked 10 years since the referendum last week, and the anniversary has prompted a fresh round of stocktaking. In its own assessment, Goldman Sachs concluded that businesses most reliant on EU workers “have experienced the largest increases in vacancy rates since the Covid pandemic” as the new migration system bit into the available workforce.

For owner-managers, that is more than an academic point. James Moberly, an economist at the bank, said the shortages could feed directly into inflation as companies forced to pay more to recruit pass those costs on to customers through higher prices, a dynamic that lands squarely on the bottom line of smaller firms with thinner margins.

“Going forward, reduced cyclicality of migration flows compared with the pre-Brexit period could lead to greater volatility in labour market tightness and domestic inflationary pressures,” Moberly said. He added that Brexit had “materially weighed on Britain’s economic performance relative to other advanced economies”.

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For Britain’s 5.5 million SMEs, the warning from Threadneedle Street carries a practical sting. If inflation is now structurally harder to shift, interest rates may stay higher for longer, keeping the cost of borrowing, recruitment and everyday trading elevated well into the second half of the decade.


Jamie Young

Jamie Young

Jamie is Senior Reporter at Business Matters, bringing over a decade of experience in UK SME business reporting.
Jamie holds a degree in Business Administration and regularly participates in industry conferences and workshops.

When not reporting on the latest business developments, Jamie is passionate about mentoring up-and-coming journalists and entrepreneurs to inspire the next generation of business leaders.

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Bangkok to host World Travel & Culture Expo 2026 in October

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Thailand News Roundup: Safety Concerns, Diplomatic Tensions, and Visa Policy Reversals

The World Travel & Culture Expo 2026, in Bangkok from 29-31 October, aims to boost tourism, trade, and investment, emphasizing Thailand’s role as an ASEAN hub for tourism and culture.

Thailand Hosts WTCE 2026

Bangkok will host the World Travel & Culture Expo 2026 from October 29-31 at IMPACT Mueang Thong Thani. The event, organized by the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT), Tourism Council of Thailand (TCT), and Guangdong Grandeur International Exhibition Group, aims to boost tourism, trade, and investment. It highlights Thailand’s pivotal role as an ASEAN tourism and entertainment hub. Various industry leaders and government officials, including Mr. Pasakorn Rangsiwatanasak, participated in the launch, emphasizing the event’s importance for economic growth through tourism, culture, sport, and entertainment.

Strengthening Thai-Chinese Ties

The expo coincides with the 50th anniversary of Thailand-China diplomatic relations, aligning with China’s expansion policy. TAT Governor Ms. Thapanee Kiatphaibool noted that WTCE 2026 supports sustainable tourism, focusing on quality experiences and strategic partnerships. The expo will feature specialized exhibitions, including amusement parks, billiards, and film technology, providing platforms for knowledge exchange and business cooperation. The event builds on the success of its 2025 edition, which connected global brands and achieved high success in business negotiations.

Tourism and Market Expansion

With China as Thailand’s top international market, the expo offers a strategic avenue to strengthen tourism and business partnerships. In 2026, Thailand anticipates over 5.13 million Chinese visitors, contributing significantly to tourism revenue. A panel discussion on “Future Trends of Tourism” explored topics like sustainability, safety, and immersive technologies. The WTCE 2026 aims to convert existing market strengths into broader opportunities, reinforcing Thailand as a gateway between ASEAN and global markets through innovative and culturally rich experiences.

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Source : Bangkok to host World Travel & Culture Expo 2026 in October

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Prince William, Kate Held “Crisis Talks” After Harry and Meghan’s Highgrove Meeting With King, Report Says

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Prince Charles, Kate Middleton and Prince William

Prince William and Catherine, Princess of Wales, reportedly held private “crisis talks” after learning that King Charles III had met with Prince Harry and Meghan Markle at Highgrove House earlier this summer, according to a report published in Woman magazine citing unnamed palace sources.

Royal correspondent Emily Andrews, writing in the magazine, said sources close to the palace described William and Kate as feeling “betrayed and possibly even humiliated” by the king’s decision to meet privately with the Duke and Duchess of Sussex. According to Andrews, the reaction stemmed in part from what the couple views as a long pattern of public criticism directed at the royal family by Harry and Meghan in the years since their 2020 departure from official duties. “They have been humiliated on more than one occasion by both Prince Harry and Meghan Markle, and seeing them swan back to the UK must, I’m sure, sting,” Andrews wrote.

The Highgrove meeting, which took place at the king’s private Gloucestershire residence and Harry’s childhood home, reportedly lasted only a couple of hours, according to the report, potentially just long enough for Harry and Meghan’s children, Archie, 7, and Lilibet, 5, to play in a treehouse King Charles had originally built for William when he was a child. Buckingham Palace confirmed the visit within hours after it occurred, though the palace did not release additional details or a photograph from the gathering, according to the report.

Andrews characterized the palace’s swift, if limited, public confirmation of the meeting as signaling a broader shift in approach toward the Sussexes. “It appeared to announce a policy of appeasement to the Sussexes,” Andrews wrote, adding that despite criticism the couple has directed at British institutions, including the judiciary, the government and the monarchy itself, “they will not be cast out.”

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According to the report, William is believed to have urged his father not to meet with Harry and Meghan, reflecting the future king’s continued frustration over his brother’s public criticism of the family through a series of high-profile media appearances, including an interview with Oprah Winfrey, the Netflix documentary series “Harry & Meghan,” and Harry’s 2023 memoir, “Spare.” Andrews wrote that William believes the couple should not have been rewarded with a family meeting with the king, however private, given that history. “His father has gone ahead, while William is the one carrying an ever-growing share of the actual work and popularity of the monarchy,” Andrews wrote, framing the dynamic as one in which William feels he has shouldered institutional responsibilities that Harry stepped away from.

Andrews argued that the king’s willingness to meet with the Sussexes represents a departure from the approach taken by his mother, Queen Elizabeth II, who died in 2022. “Charles’ first duty is not to the spare. It is to the heir and his wife. That is the deal Queen Elizabeth II understood and honoured for 70 years: the institution comes first, sentiment a distant second,” Andrews wrote, characterizing the Highgrove meeting overall as “a triumph for Harry and Meghan.”

The report also suggested the meeting may represent the culmination of an 18-month effort by Harry and Meghan to re-establish themselves within both Britain and the royal family, a strategy Andrews suggested could ultimately benefit the couple’s public profile and business ventures if it leads to more frequent visits to the UK going forward. Andrews wrote that a pattern of regular return visits would effectively unravel the terms of the couple’s 2020 departure from royal duties, often referred to as “Megxit,” describing any such arrangement as “the half-in/half-out that the late Queen explicitly forbade.”

Despite their reported frustration, Andrews wrote that William and Kate have limited options for influencing the situation directly. “What can William and Kate do? Not much, if we’re honest, until William is King,” Andrews wrote, adding that William rarely discusses Harry within royal circles but that the king’s decision to meet with the Sussexes “is sure to sting.”

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The report also highlighted an apparent shift in the palace’s public messaging around the visit. According to Andrews, palace officials had described Harry’s earlier refusal to bring his children to the UK without enhanced security arrangements as “emotional blackmail” just three weeks before the Highgrove meeting took place, a characterization Andrews said changed noticeably in tone following the reunion. A source close to the king, cited in the report, said Charles “will never shut the door on the possibility of spending time with his family because, despite all the trouble, blood is blood.”

Andrews wrote that significant mistrust remains between the Sussexes and Buckingham Palace despite the Highgrove meeting, and that while Harry appeared eager to use his recent UK visit to repair family relationships alongside his other engagements, his relationship with William and Kate specifically remains severely strained. “It’s also clear that Kate and William will not forgive him for Spare,” Andrews wrote, concluding that while the couple remains united with each other, “their relationship with Harry and Meghan seems to be broken forever.”

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Amalgamate banks – The Economic Times

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ET Search
This refers to your edit ‘India needs new banks’ (ET, Mar 4). Financial inclusion and financial literacy will be the paramount objective while implementing reforms along with UID project to protect the interests of poor. Modern banking system has lost apersonal touch. Even citizens from semi-urban areas are reluctant to use ATMs. NextGen banking may fail in rural areas. It’s true we need more banks and innovative way of thinking, competition will drive away inefficient players.

ET has also suggested the perfect solution to the problem in the same edition, ‘Before they compete, let banks consolidate’. Narasimhan panel too has suggested to have less number of banks with more branches at the national level. The author has pointed out that of 9,000 private bank branches, just 1,138 are located in rural areas. This means they are not keen to go rural.

Shishir Sindekar,

Nasik, March 4

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Prysmian S.p.A. (PRYMY) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

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OneWater Marine Inc. (ONEW) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript