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After two great inflation numbers where the level of both consumer and producer prices actually declined in June from the prior month, reported out Tuesday and Wednesday, today we get another big number this time on retail sales — also known as consumer spending.

Core sales have risen 8 percent at an annual rate over the past three months. And the biggest category was online sales, where non-store retailers have jumped by 1.9 percent in June, 1.4 percent in May, 1.5 percent in April, and 21 percent annually for the last 3 months. Those are big numbers. 

By the way, car sales are up more than 20 percent annually in the second quarter. Another big number. We will get manufacturing tomorrow, but two booming regional manufacturing reports from New York and Philadelphia have already been reported.

So allow me to modestly redefine the reemergence of a Goldilocks economy. It used to be not too hot and not too cold. Yet that was Wall Street, and I was guilty of it too, suggesting limits to growth that might cause inflation. My new Goldilocks definition is rapid economic growth combined with stable or even disinflating prices.

That is to say, the Phillips Curve is dead. There’s no trade off between growth and inflation. Or between jobs and inflation. Speaking of jobs, weekly initial unemployment claims are rock bottom. Nobody is getting fired, but plenty of folks are being hired.

This is a new Goldilocks, on the supply-side, technologically driven. We’re talking AI, quantum computing, advanced manufacturing, and space technology breakthroughs. At the bottom of all of this is surging productivity — output per person — which is holding down business costs and consumer prices. We saw some of this movie before during the 1990s. Yet we’re seeing it again right now even bigger time.

And we have pro-growth fiscal and monetary policies, including a strong dollar, and a new regime at the Fed, and lower taxes and fewer regulations from the White House. All this is nurturing the new Goldilocks. Pessimists beware, you’re about to get whacked and you won’t even see it coming.

Trump Media & Technology Group, which owns Truth Social, is launching a paid service to give Wall Street firms high-speed access to its most influential posts, though it is not clear if the paid service will include President Trump’s posts.

Launching 1 August, instant updates will be delivered from key accounts, it said.

The company behind the app hopes it will create a steady new source of money for the firm which is currently loss-making.

It is likely aimed at financial traders who want to see market-moving news fast. Trump’s social media posts often cause sudden swings in global markets, especially when he writes about trade and tariffs. For firms, a delay of even seconds can be costly.

Until now, banks and traders had to monitor the app manually. The new system will send posts directly to paying clients.

”Markets already move on Truth Social posts“, said Kevin McGurn, the interim boss of Trump Media, adding that the service will create a steady profit.

The service will run 24 hours a day, seven days a week.

The company, which launched its social media app in 2022, said some firms have been copying its data for months without permission.

McGurn warned that Trump Media will soon block these methods, forcing firms to buy the official feed instead.

While other social media networks already sell data, the move highlights the unique overlap between Trump’s private business and his public role as president.

Gold prices fell sharply Thursday, dropping $56.95, or 1.41%, to $3,990.63 an ounce, pulling the precious metal below the closely watched $4,000 threshold as a strengthening U.S. dollar and rising expectations for tighter Federal Reserve policy weighed on the traditional safe-haven asset.

The decline marked a notable shift after gold had spent much of the week trading in a narrow range just above $4,000, with prices hovering around $4,050 to $4,070 an ounce earlier in the session as investors weighed a mix of softer inflation data against escalating military tensions between the United States and Iran. Gold futures had opened Thursday at $4,068.90 per troy ounce, up 0.4% from Wednesday’s close, before the metal’s price steadily eroded through the trading day.

The pullback came even as geopolitical risk in the Middle East remained elevated. The United States has continued striking Iranian military sites for a fifth consecutive day, with the back-and-forth exchanges between the two countries leading once again to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the reimposition of a U.S. naval blockade on Iranian ports. Roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas supply has historically moved through the strait, and the renewed military escalation has kept energy markets on edge even as the U.S. has said it remains open to negotiations aimed at reopening the waterway.

Despite that backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty, which would typically support demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, Thursday’s price action instead reflected the dominant influence of shifting interest rate expectations and a firmer dollar. A batch of stronger domestic economic data released Thursday, including a jump in the Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s regional manufacturing index to 41.4 for July and a decline in weekly jobless claims to 208,000, added to the case that the U.S. economy remains resilient, reducing the urgency for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in the months ahead.

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh has repeatedly signaled a cautious, inflation-focused stance in recent public remarks, reaffirming that the central bank has “no tolerance” for persistently elevated inflation. That messaging has kept markets guessing about the central bank’s next move, with the Fed having held its benchmark rate steady at a range of 3.50% to 3.75% at its June meeting in a unanimous 12-0 vote. The Fed’s so-called dot plot, which tracks individual policymakers’ rate projections, revealed a divided committee: of the 18 officials who submitted projections, nine indicated they expect at least one rate increase before year-end, eight projected no change, and just one projected a rate cut. Notably, Warsh himself did not submit a projection, a decision widely interpreted as a deliberate signal of his own uncertainty about the path ahead.

Market pricing for the Fed’s upcoming meetings has fluctuated in recent days alongside incoming economic data. As of Thursday, traders had scaled back expectations for a rate hike at the Fed’s September meeting, with the implied probability falling to around 44%, down from about 50% a day earlier, according to data tracked by Trading Economics. That shift followed Wednesday’s producer price report, which showed U.S. wholesale prices unexpectedly declined in June for the first time in nearly a year, driven largely by lower energy costs, while core producer prices rose a softer-than-expected 0.2%. That report followed Tuesday’s cooler-than-expected consumer inflation data, both of which had initially helped support gold prices earlier in the week by easing concerns over additional Fed tightening.

Even so, the market continued to price in a meaningful chance of further rate increases given the inflationary pressure created by rising oil prices tied to the ongoing conflict in the Strait of Hormuz. Higher interest rates typically weigh on gold because the metal pays no yield, making it less attractive relative to interest-bearing assets like Treasury bonds when borrowing costs rise.

Thursday’s decline adds to a broader pullback gold has experienced since reaching a record high earlier this year. The metal’s price has fallen roughly 28% from its January peak amid a more hawkish shift in Fed rate expectations, even as several of the structural forces that drove gold’s earlier rally, including sustained central bank buying, ongoing fiscal expansion concerns and reserve diversification away from the U.S. dollar by foreign central banks, remain largely intact. China’s central bank has continued its extended gold-buying streak, a trend analysts have cited as providing a longer-term floor for prices even amid short-term volatility.

Wall Street forecasters have adjusted their outlooks for gold accordingly. Goldman Sachs cut its year-end 2026 price target for gold to $4,900 in June, down from a prior forecast of $5,400, citing the shift away from anticipated rate cuts and fading demand for gold-backed exchange-traded funds. The bank has said that if the Federal Reserve does ultimately deliver a rate hike, gold prices could fall further, potentially toward the $4,400 range by year-end. JPMorgan, meanwhile, has set a more conservative fourth-quarter target of $4,500. Both banks, despite the downward revisions, have maintained that gold’s longer-term structural case remains intact given continued central bank demand and broader concerns about fiscal deficits weighing on confidence in paper currencies.

The pullback in gold was echoed in markets overseas. In India, one of the world’s largest gold consumers, futures contracts on the Multi Commodity Exchange fell alongside international prices Thursday, with the benchmark contract dropping roughly half a percent in early trading before extending losses further into the session. Silver prices also declined in tandem with gold across both international and Indian markets.

With the Federal Reserve’s next policy meeting scheduled for July 28-29, investors are likely to remain highly sensitive to incoming economic data in the weeks ahead, particularly inflation readings and any further developments in the Strait of Hormuz conflict that could shift the delicate balance between safe-haven demand and rising Treasury yields that has largely defined gold’s trading pattern throughout July.

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Mortgage rates rose this week to the highest level in nearly a year, mortgage buyer Freddie Mac said Thursday.

Freddie Mac’s latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey, released Thursday, showed the average rate on the benchmark 30-year fixed mortgage climbed to 6.55% – the highest level since August 2025 – from last week’s reading of 6.49%. 

The average rate on a 30-year loan was 6.75% a year ago.

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The average rate on the benchmark 30-year fixed mortgage climbed to 6.55% this week, according to Freddie Mac.  (Paul Bersebach/MediaNews Group/Orange County Register via Getty Images)

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“Purchase application demand has weakened recently, but housing affordability is more favorable and housing inventory continues to rise, thus the backdrop for prospective homebuyers is modestly improving,” said Freddie Mac chief economist Sam Khater.

The average rate on a 15-year fixed mortgage rose to 5.93% from last week’s reading of 5.82%.

Mortgage rates are affected by several factors, including the Federal Reserve and geopolitics. (Daniel Acker/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

Mortgage rates are affected by several factors, including the Federal Reserve and geopolitics. Though mortgage rates are not directly affected by the Fed’s interest rate decisions, they closely track the 10-year Treasury yield. The 10-year yield hovered around 4.57% as of Thursday afternoon.

“June CPI data showed headline inflation cooling to 3.5% and core inflation easing to 2.6%, both below expectations and a welcome sign for rate-watchers,” said Realtor.com senior economist Hannah Jones. “However, the conflict in the Middle East flared up once again this week, pushing oil prices and Treasury yields higher. Since mortgage rates tend to track the 10-year Treasury yield, they’re likely to follow suit as long as oil markets stay jumpy.”

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The latest mortgage data comes as conditions in the housing market have improved somewhat for buyers, many of whom have been on the sidelines as tight inventory has supported higher home prices and mortgage rates have held relatively steady.

The average rate on a 15-year fixed mortgage rose to 5.93% from last week’s reading of 5.82%. (Daniel Acker/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

Realtor.com recently released a midyear update to its 2026 housing market forecast that estimates home price growth will slow to 1.2% this year, a rate that’s slower than the original forecast for the year and is below the current pace of inflation. That means home prices would be effectively declining in real, inflation-adjusted terms.

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The IRS this week announced changes in the amount taxpayers may deduct in gas used per mile while operating a vehicle for business for the remainder of the year amid higher gas prices.

The tax collection agency noted that the change “results from recent increases in the price of fuel” and will allow for larger mileage deductions for business, medical and moving expense purposes.

Under the revision, the standard mileage deduction rate for business will increase to 76 cents per mile, up from 72.5 cents a mile.

Deductions for medical and moving purposes will also rise to 23.5 cents per mile, rising from the previous rate of 20.5 cents.

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Gas prices surged this spring and early summer due to the Iran war. (Ariana Drehsler/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

The IRS’ changes to the mileage deduction are effective starting this month, retroactive to July 1, 2026.

The Journal of Accountancy noted that the IRS’ revision is the first midyear adjustment of the standard mileage rate since 2022.

Gas prices surged following the outbreak of the Iran war, which disrupted the flow of oil from the Middle East through the Strait of Hormuz and has contributed to higher gasoline prices at the pump.

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The IRS increased the mileage deduction rate for businesses, medical transport and moving expenses. (J. David Ake/Getty Images)

Data from AAA shows that the national average cost of a gallon of gasoline was $3.943 as of Thursday. That’s up from $3.16 a gallon a year ago, which represents an increase of 24.7% over the past year.

There has been some relief for drivers in recent weeks, as the average price of gas is down from $4.044 a gallon a month ago.

Gas prices have been a major factor in inflation rising this year, with the latest consumer price index (CPI) data showing gas prices are up 26.7% compared with a year ago.

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Gas prices are up nearly 25% from a year ago, AAA data shows. (David Paul Morris/Bloomberg)

That rise is despite CPI inflation data showing a 9.7% decline in gas prices in the month of June as energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz picked up, but further declines will be needed to offset the large increases seen in the first few months of the conflict.

Headline CPI was up 3.5% in June, well above the Federal Reserve’s target rate of 2%, which has cast doubt on the ability of the central bank to cut interest rates this year if inflation remains persistently above target.

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Shares of Micron Technology fell another 3.2%, or $28.90, to $875.38 on Thursday morning, extending a punishing stretch for the memory chipmaker that has now wiped out more than a quarter of its value from the record highs it reached earlier this year.

Thursday’s decline followed an even steeper drop Wednesday, when Micron shares tumbled 8.02%, falling from $983.12 to $904.28 in a session that saw the stock swing nearly 12% between its intraday low of $873.63 and high of $978.40. Trading volume surged alongside the losses, with roughly 54 million shares changing hands Wednesday, well above the company’s average daily volume of about 44 million shares, a signal that some analysts flagged as a sign of elevated risk in the stock’s near-term trajectory.

The stock has now fallen in six of its last ten trading sessions, a stretch that has produced a cumulative decline of more than 21% over that period. Micron shares remain down roughly 30% from the 52-week high of $1,255 they touched earlier this year, even as the stock trades well above its 52-week low of $103.38 and remains up sharply over the past 12 months, reflecting the extraordinary volatility that has characterized the memory chip sector throughout 2026.

Several factors have converged to pressure Micron and its peers across the memory chip industry in recent sessions. Chinese memory chip maker ChangXin Memory Technologies, known as CXMT, announced plans for an $8.5 billion initial public offering, a development that has intensified investor concerns about rising competition from Chinese rivals in a market Micron has long dominated alongside South Korea’s Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. At the same time, reports have circulated that the U.S. government is considering new export restrictions on high-bandwidth memory products, adding another layer of uncertainty for a company that has increasingly relied on HBM chips to supply the artificial intelligence data center buildout.

Broader worries about cooling demand in the personal computing and mobile device markets have also weighed on sentiment, with some analysts revising earnings forecasts downward amid concerns about reduced capital expenditure plans and general macroeconomic uncertainty across the technology sector. The pullback in Micron shares this week has coincided with a broader retreat across the memory chip complex, including sharp declines in SanDisk, Western Digital and South Korea’s SK Hynix, as investors have grown more cautious about the sustainability of the current AI-driven memory upcycle after a period of extraordinary gains.

The selloff has not been confined to the United States. South Korea’s central bank raised its benchmark interest rate this week for the first time since January 2023, a move that triggered a sharp selloff in the country’s stock market, with the Kospi index tumbling and both Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix posting steep declines. That regional weakness has continued to spill into U.S. trading, reinforcing the pressure on Micron shares as investors globally reassess valuations across the memory and broader semiconductor sector.

Despite the recent slide, Wall Street’s overall view of Micron remains notably bullish. According to data compiled by stock analysis platforms, the average 12-month price target among analysts covering Micron sits above $1,460, implying substantial upside from current levels, with the average rating characterized as “Strong Buy.” KeyBanc Capital Markets analyst John Vinh, who visited Asia to assess conditions across the technology supply chain, raised his price target on Micron to $1,750 following that trip, one of the more bullish calls on the stock heading into the recent pullback.

Analysts at Barclays have also pointed to Micron and SK Hynix as two AI memory stocks that could see substantial further gains, citing continued strength in underlying demand for high-bandwidth memory products used in artificial intelligence infrastructure. Micron’s most recent quarterly results, reported for the period ended in late May, showed revenue rising 346% year-over-year to $41 billion, easily beating both revenue and earnings guidance, with non-GAAP gross margin climbing to 85% from 39% a year earlier. The company’s guidance at the time implied continued growth and margin expansion in the quarters ahead, underscoring the disconnect between Micron’s recent operating performance and the sharp pullback in its share price.

Not all analysts share that optimism, however. Some market commentators have cautioned that Micron’s stock has become one of the more speculative names trading in the current environment, with billionaire investor Warren Buffett recently warning more broadly that the stock market has increasingly been shaped by speculative trading rather than long-term investing, a dynamic some observers have specifically tied to the erratic price swings seen in Micron shares in recent weeks.

Technical indicators on Micron shares have also turned more cautious in recent sessions. The stock has shown sell signals from both its short- and long-term moving averages, according to technical analysis platforms, with resistance levels identified in the range of roughly $955 to $1,012 that would need to be reclaimed to reverse the current bearish trend. A sell signal first triggered in late June has been followed by a decline of more than 25% in the stock through Thursday’s session.

Micron’s next scheduled earnings report is expected in late September, leaving investors with several weeks to assess how the current mix of geopolitical risk, competitive pressure from Chinese manufacturers and shifting sentiment around AI infrastructure spending will play out before the company’s next opportunity to update its outlook. In the meantime, Micron executives are scheduled to participate in the KeyBanc Capital Markets Technology Leadership Forum, an appearance that could offer investors additional insight into the company’s near-term demand trends and capital spending plans as the memory chip sector continues to navigate one of its more turbulent stretches of the year.