Business
Gold’s sharp correction: What lies ahead for prices?
Why gold prices corrected so much
The sharp correction in gold prices can largely be attributed to a combination of fundamental pressures and technical factors. A stronger US dollar has reduced the appeal of gold for global investors, while rising US bond yields have increased the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset like gold. At the same time, expectations of further interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve have weighed heavily on sentiment. From a technical perspective, gold had rallied significantly over the past two years, leading to overbought conditions. This triggered profit booking and liquidation of long positions, amplifying the downward move.
Why the US dollar is so strong
The US dollar has remained firm due to relative economic resilience in the United States and expectations of tighter monetary policy. Strong labour market data, stable consumption trends, and persistent inflation have supported the dollar’s strength. Additionally, elevated US bond yields continue to attract global capital flows into dollar-denominated assets. Safe-haven demand has also played a role, as investors have preferred holding dollars amid global uncertainties. A stronger dollar typically moves inversely to gold, as it makes the yellow metal more expensive for holders of other currencies, thereby pressuring prices further.
Expectations of US Fed policy outlook
Markets are currently pricing in the possibility of multiple Fed rate hikes or at least a prolonged period of higher interest rates. Persistent inflation concerns have forced the Fed to maintain a cautious stance, delaying expectations of monetary easing. Higher interest rates support bond yields and strengthen the dollar, both of which are negative for gold. The lack of clarity on the timing of potential rate cuts has further contributed to volatility in bullion prices. Until there is a clear shift in the Fed’s policy stance toward easing, gold may continue to face intermittent pressure in the near term.
Impact of easing geopolitical tensions
The ceasefire developments between the US and Iran have reduced immediate geopolitical risks, leading to a decline in the safe-haven premium embedded in gold prices. Earlier, geopolitical tensions had driven strong inflows into bullion as investors sought protection against uncertainty. However, with oil prices returning to pre-war levels and tensions easing, this premium has largely evaporated. While geopolitical risks have not disappeared entirely, the immediate urgency has diminished, contributing to the recent correction. This highlights gold’s sensitivity to global risk sentiment and shifting macro narratives.
Role of central bank demand
Despite the correction, central bank demand for gold remains a strong supportive factor. Emerging market central banks have been steadily increasing their gold reserves as part of diversification strategies away from the US dollar. This structural demand provides a solid floor for prices during periods of volatility. Even during corrections, central bank buying tends to absorb some of the selling pressure, preventing deeper declines. Over the medium to long term, continued accumulation by central banks is likely to support gold prices and reinforce its role as a strategic reserve asset.
Outlook: Correction or bearish trend?
The current fall in gold appears to be more of a technical correction rather than the beginning of a structural bear market. The rally over the past two years was driven by strong macro fundamentals, and the recent decline is largely a result of profit booking and changing short-term liquidity conditions. While further corrections cannot be ruled out in the near term, the broader outlook remains constructive. Factors such as potential economic slowdown, geopolitical uncertainties, and eventual monetary policy easing are likely to support gold prices over the medium term.
What should investors do at higher levels?
Investors who have entered at higher levels should avoid panic selling and instead adopt a disciplined approach. Given that the correction appears technical, long-term investors can continue to hold their positions. Accumulating gold through a systematic investment approach (SIP) and adding on dips can help average down costs. However, caution is advised in aggressively deploying capital at current levels due to ongoing volatility. A staggered buying strategy remains the most prudent approach in the current environment.
Domestic outlook and role of INR
In the domestic market, gold prices are expected to remain relatively supported despite global weakness, largely due to currency movements. A weaker Indian Rupee against the US dollar tends to cushion declines in international prices, keeping domestic prices elevated. Additionally, demand is likely to pick up during the upcoming festive and wedding seasons in India, providing further support. Seasonal demand, combined with currency depreciation, could help stabilize domestic gold prices even if global markets remain volatile, making India a relatively stronger market for gold.
(Hareesh V is Head of Commodity Research, Geojit Investments Limited)
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
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Mamdani Unveils 30% Discount Plan for NYC’s New City-Owned Grocery Stores Amid Fierce Industry Backlash
New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani unveiled detailed pricing plans this week for his signature policy of city-owned grocery stores, announcing that a core basket of essential foods will sell for 30% below typical retail prices, a move that has drawn sharp criticism from grocers who say it unfairly threatens their businesses.
Speaking in Brooklyn, Mamdani said the discount will apply to a defined set of staples including all fresh produce, meat, seafood, bread, milk and pasta. “Once a month, our five city run grocery stores will set prices for this core set of goods at 30% below typical retail prices. No exceptions, no gimmicks,” Mamdani said. “The savings will last for the entire month. That means no weekly fluctuations nor sticker shock at the checkout line.” The mayor’s office said the discounts could save shoppers roughly $90 a month, or approximately $1,000 a year.
Mamdani said he settled on the 30% discount figure because food prices have risen by roughly that amount since 2019. The plan, known officially as N.Y.C. Groceries, calls for one municipal store in each of the city’s five boroughs, with a network the mayor’s office describes as a “first-of-its-kind model” among major U.S. cities. Rather than being run directly by city employees, the stores will be operated day-to-day by private grocery firms selected through a request for proposals process the city has issued, with the city setting overall standards, pricing requirements and store design.
The first store is expected to open by the end of 2027 in Hunts Point, in the South Bronx, a neighborhood the mayor’s office said has among the highest rates of food insecurity in the city, with 77% of households reportedly struggling to afford basic necessities. A second location is planned for La Marqueta, a historic public market in East Harlem, with an expected opening by 2029. All five stores are slated to be operating by the end of Mamdani’s first term. The city has allocated $70 million in capital funding for the project, including $30 million specifically for the ground-up construction of the East Harlem location.
Mamdani framed the initiative as central to his broader affordability agenda. “In the wealthiest city in the richest country in the world, no one should have to wonder how they’ll afford the food they need to feed themselves or their families,” Mamdani said. In a separate statement issued by his office, Mamdani added, “Every week, New Yorkers walk into a grocery store hoping the prices haven’t gone up again. A trip to the grocery store shouldn’t spell dread for New Yorkers.”
The stores will be able to offer lower prices in part because they will not need to turn a profit and will not face the same rent and operating costs that private grocers absorb. Mamdani has said the stores will not sell items such as cigarettes or alcohol, a decision he described as intended to avoid direct competition with local bodegas on those specific products.
The plan has drawn strong opposition from the grocery industry. Antonio Pena, president of the National Supermarket Association, which represents roughly 450 stores across New York City, said the initiative threatens grocers already operating on thin margins. “To have the city decide to open a store in the same neighborhood in which our members are operating at already low margins — because running a store in the city is very expensive, extremely expensive — we feel that it’s a big slap in the face to us,” Pena said. Jason Ferraira, a board member of the same association, which has separately been described as representing more than 700 stores across New York and the East Coast, criticized the city’s broader track record managing public services. He argued the city has “a poor track record” running public housing, hospitals and schools, and predicted the grocery initiative would “likely fail miserably.” Ferraira added that competition and choice matter to residents. “New Yorkers enjoy having options,” he said.
Critics have also raised broader economic concerns beyond the direct impact on individual grocers. Economists cited in coverage of the plan have warned that if enough bodegas and independent grocers are forced out of business by the subsidized competition, remaining stores could eventually raise prices to cope with reduced competition and higher operating costs, potentially offsetting some of the intended savings for consumers over the long run. Others have pointed to the city’s history with earlier municipal market experiments, including markets built under former Mayor Fiorello La Guardia in the 1930s, though those markets rented space to private vendors who remained subject to normal market pressures, differing structurally from the city-run model Mamdani has proposed.
The grocery store initiative follows a separate, related policy Mamdani has pursued this year to freeze rents on regulated apartments, part of a broader political platform built around addressing the rising cost of living in New York City. Grocery prices in the city have climbed sharply in recent years, with New York now ranked as the second most expensive city in the contiguous United States for grocery shopping, trailing only San Francisco, according to industry data cited in coverage of the plan.
With the city now formally soliciting proposals from private grocery operators to run the five planned stores, and construction still years away from completion at most sites, the ultimate success or failure of Mamdani’s city-owned grocery experiment is likely to remain a subject of ongoing debate among economists, grocery industry representatives and city officials well before any of the five stores fully open to the public.
Business
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He is the leader of the investment group European Small Cap Ideas which offers exclusive access to actionable research on appealing Europe-focused investment opportunities not found elsewhere. The a focus is on high-quality ideas in the small-cap space, with emphasis on capital gains and dividend income for continuous cash flow. Features include: two model portfolios – the European Small Cap Ideas portfolio and the European REIT Portfolio, weekly updates, educational content to learn more about the European investing opportunities, and an active chat room to discuss the latest developments of the portfolio holdings. Learn more.
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I have also written some out of the money put options and I intend to write more put options.
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