Mumbai: India’s key stock indices ended over 1% higher on Monday, recouping early losses, as a ceasefire proposal in the West Asia conflict sparked a pullback from the oversold levels.

NSE’s Nifty rose 255.15 points, or 1.1%, to close at 22,968.25. BSE’s Sensex rose 787.3 points, or 1.1%, to end at 74,106.85. Both indices were down as much as 0.8% earlier in the day.

Monday’s market recovery was driven by a mix of fundamental and technical factors, said Shrikant Chouhan, head of Equity Research, Kotak Securities.

“Short covering from oversold levels, along with crude staying below $110 despite Trump’s threats, lifted sentiment and triggered buying interest,” he said.

The India VIX slipped 0.2% to 25.47 on Monday, a modest decline, pointing to lingering caution among investors despite the market’s rebound.

The ceasefire plan – including an end to the hostilities between the US and Iran and reopening the Strait of Hormuz – comes ahead of Donald Trump’s Tuesday deadline to Tehran to allow passage through the key shipping route.
At home, foreign portfolio investors net sold shares worth ₹8,167 crore. Domestic institutions were buyers worth ₹8,089 crore. Broader market indices Nifty Midcap 150 gained 1.4%, and Nifty Small-cap 250 rose 1.1% on Monday. Out of the total 4,544 stocks traded on BSE, 3,193 advanced and 1,173 fell at close.

“The recent decline has lost momentum over the past few sessions, opening room for a rebound,” said Chouhan.

The Nifty could move towards 23,200 in the near term, where profit booking may emerge, he said.

Elsewhere in Asia, Japan gained 0.55% and South Korea advanced 1.4%. Stock markets in China, Hong Kong and Taiwan remained shut on Monday. The pan-Europe index Stoxx 600 was down 0.2% at the time of going to print.

Mumbai: Market participants took a shine to shares of gold jewellers on Monday as strong business updates and reports on reduction in base import prices of precious metals suggest improved prospects for these companies.

Analysts expect sustained demand for gold jewellery in the coming quarters due to the summer wedding season, as well as other occasions like Akshaya Tritiya, Baisakhi and Rath Yatra.

Shares of Senco Gold, which reported its fourth-quarter business update on Saturday, ended 12.1% higher on Monday. Other companies like Thangamayil Jewellery, Kalyan Jewellers India, Titan Company, Sky Gold And Diamonds and PC Jeweller ended 3-7% higher.

Senco said in its exchange filing that on a standalone basis, it achieved a wedding season-led growth of 46% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, while PC Jeweller saw standalone revenue growth of approximately 32% year-on-year, in this period.

“Reports of a reduction in base import prices for gold and silver lifted jewellery stocks on Monday, as lower import prices are expected to ease input costs and support margins. Positive business updates from Senco Gold and PC Jeweller further supported sentiment,” said Arijit Malakar, equity research analyst, Ashika Stock Broking.

“The overall market fall due to the West Asia conflict has led to consolidation in gold jewellery stocks. However, with global gold prices cooling, Indian Jewellers are now restocking at favourable levels,” said Netra Deshpande, research analyst, Mirae Asset ShareKhan.
She believes that sustained demand from the extended wedding season and upcoming festivals like Akshaya Tritiya will continue to support growth in the coming quarters as well.

SAN FRANCISCO (AP) — While travelers at many major U.S. airports have endured hours-long security lines due to the ongoing partial government shutdown, San Francisco International Airport has largely escaped the chaos, with average TSA wait times remaining steady at 10 to 15 minutes and all checkpoints operating normally as of early April 2026.
SFO, one of the busiest airports in the country and a key international gateway for the Bay Area, participates in the Transportation Security Administration’s Screening Partnership Program. This allows a private contractor, Covenant Aviation Security, to handle checkpoint screening under TSA supervision. Because the screeners are not federal TSA employees, they continue to receive uninterrupted pay during the funding impasse that has affected direct TSA operations elsewhere.

Airport officials and local reports confirm that security lines at SFO have stayed consistent with typical operations, even as spring break travel overlapped with the shutdown’s impact on federal staffing. In contrast to airports like Phoenix Sky Harbor or others reporting waits of 30 minutes or more — and occasional checkpoint closures — SFO has maintained smooth flow. Peak waits rarely exceeded 20-25 minutes, with many travelers clearing security in under 10 minutes during off-peak hours.
“While we’ve seen and heard about the long security checkpoint lines over the last few weeks at major airports around the country, SFO is NOT experiencing this issue,” the airport posted on social media in late March, highlighting its private contractor model as the reason for stability.
Current real-time data shows average security waits at SFO around 12 minutes overall. Early morning hours from midnight to 3 a.m. often see waits as low as 1-3 minutes, while busier slots like 6-9 a.m. may reach 15-25 minutes. PreCheck lanes and CLEAR biometric services further reduce times for eligible passengers, sometimes to just 2-5 minutes. One checkpoint in Terminal 3 (Boarding Area F3) has been noted as occasionally closed, but alternatives remain open and all gates stay accessible.
United Airlines, SFO’s largest carrier, recently rolled out a helpful TSA wait time tracker in its mobile app for SFO and six other hubs. The feature provides estimated waits for both standard and PreCheck lanes, helping passengers plan arrivals more precisely amid broader travel uncertainties.
SFO handled approximately 54.5 million passengers in 2025, a 4.3% increase from 2024, with strong growth in domestic traffic. The airport serves as a major hub for United Airlines and a critical link for transpacific routes to Asia, which accounted for a significant share of its international traffic. Despite the shutdown, security screening screened millions without the widespread disruptions seen nationally.
The partial government shutdown, now stretching into April, has forced TSA officers at direct federal airports to work without pay, leading to increased callouts, fatigue and longer lines. Some airports consolidated lanes or temporarily closed checkpoints. SFO’s model has provided a buffer: private screeners, paid through separate funding, reported full staffing and normal operations.
Airport spokesman Doug Yakel noted that contracted officers have kept average peak wait times under 10 minutes in many recent periods, even while processing high volumes. This stands in stark contrast to reports from other hubs where waits stretched to hours, prompting airlines to advise arriving three hours early for domestic flights.
Travelers at SFO praised the relative ease. Social media posts and local news shared stories of quick passages through security, with some contrasting their experience favorably against friends flying out of TSA-operated airports. “No lines at SFO — right through security,” one passenger remarked after a recent trip.
SFO features multiple security checkpoints across its terminals: A and G in the International Terminal, B and C in Terminal 1, D in Terminal 2, and F1 plus the occasionally closed F3 in Terminal 3. All offer TSA PreCheck, Priority lanes and CLEAR where available. Hours vary slightly by checkpoint, with most opening as early as 3:15 a.m. and some operating nearly 24 hours.
In addition to standard procedures, SFO supports TSA ConfirmID, a fee-based identity verification service for passengers without REAL ID-compliant documents. The airport also uses advanced imaging technology and continues promoting efficient packing to speed screening.
Beyond security stability, SFO faces other operational pressures. A new FAA rule and temporary runway project have reduced hourly arrivals from 54 to 36 planes, potentially causing more flight delays independent of security. Officials emphasize that these changes do not affect checkpoint lines.
For passengers, the airport recommends arriving at least two hours before domestic flights and three hours for international, though the consistent security times mean many can adhere to standard guidelines without extra buffer for shutdown-related delays. The MyTSA app, United’s tracker and SFO’s own flight information displays provide helpful updates.
The Screening Partnership Program at SFO dates back years and makes it the largest U.S. airport using private contractors for screening. Only a handful of airports, including Kansas City and a few smaller ones, share this setup. During previous shutdowns, the model similarly prevented major disruptions.
Local leaders and travelers have noted the irony: while the shutdown highlights vulnerabilities in federal TSA staffing, privatized operations at places like SFO demonstrate an alternative that maintains reliability. However, all checkpoints still follow strict TSA security protocols and oversight.
As summer travel approaches, SFO continues investing in passenger experience with expanded dining, art installations and efficient terminal layouts. The airport consistently ranks well in traveler satisfaction surveys among large U.S. hubs.
Travel tips for SFO remain standard but especially useful now: enroll in TSA PreCheck or CLEAR for faster processing, pack liquids and electronics accessibly, wear slip-on shoes, and check real-time wait data before heading to the airport. Those without PreCheck should factor in potentially longer standard lanes during peak times like early mornings and evenings.
The broader context at SFO underscores a national conversation about airport security staffing. While most airports rely on federal TSA employees facing financial strain without pay, the private model at SFO has kept lines moving and morale steadier among screeners.
Passengers navigating the Bay Area’s busy travel season can take some comfort in SFO’s resilience. As the shutdown persists without a clear resolution, airports without direct TSA staffing continue to serve as a relative bright spot for efficient security.
SFO’s role as a vibrant international gateway — connecting Silicon Valley innovation with global destinations — remains strong. With wait times stable and innovations like United’s app tracker rolling out, the airport aims to keep travelers informed and moving smoothly even amid federal uncertainties.
Many who flew through SFO in recent weeks shared gratitude online for the predictable experience. “While friends complained about three-hour TSA lines elsewhere, we were at our gate in 45 minutes total at SFO,” one Bay Area resident posted.
As conditions evolve, travelers should monitor official SFO channels and airline apps for the latest advisories. For now, San Francisco International stands out as a smoother option for those able to route through the West Coast hub.
Phoenix Sky Harbor and other TSA-direct airports have seen fluctuating improvements with auxiliary support like ICE agents, but SFO’s private contractor advantage has provided consistent relief without such interventions.
With passenger numbers rebounding and technology enhancements in place, SFO positions itself well for the busy months ahead. The airport’s ability to maintain normal wait times during a national staffing crunch serves as a case study in operational resilience.

MIAMI — Travelers at Miami International Airport encountered unpredictable security lines and mounting frustration in recent weeks as a partial government shutdown strained Transportation Security Administration operations during one of the busiest travel periods of the year.

Long queues snaked through terminals at MIA and neighboring Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport in March 2026, with some passengers reporting waits of up to 35 minutes or more during morning peaks. The disruptions coincided with spring break crowds, East Coast weather delays and a federal funding impasse that left thousands of TSA workers unpaid and prompted hundreds of call-outs or resignations nationwide.

As of early April 2026, conditions at MIA have largely stabilized. Real-time data from the airport’s official website shows standard security checkpoint waits ranging from 8 to 18 minutes depending on the lane, with TSA PreCheck and CLEAR lanes often clearing in under 5 minutes. Checkpoint 1 remained closed in recent updates, while others operated with fluctuating but manageable volumes. Immigration processing, however, continued to see longer delays, sometimes exceeding 45 minutes.

The partial shutdown, which affected Department of Homeland Security funding, forced many TSA officers to work without pay since mid-February. Union leaders described the situation as “dire,” noting more than 450 officers had quit nationally since the impasse began. Absenteeism spiked, leading airports across the country — including major hubs like Atlanta and Houston — to post waits of an hour or longer on some days. South Florida airports experienced similar volatility, though MIA appeared to fare better than many peers.

Miami-Dade Aviation Department communications director Greg Chin told local media that early morning lines in mid-March occasionally stretched to 18-35 minutes due to staffing shortages. By midday, waits typically dropped significantly. Some checkpoints, such as one near dining options, stayed closed temporarily as managers shifted personnel. Airport officials urged passengers to arrive early and monitor the MyTSA app or MIA’s website for live updates.

President Donald Trump proposed deploying Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents to assist at congested airports, but MIA and FLL officials confirmed they had not been notified of any such assignments as of late March. Travelers expressed mixed reactions: some appreciated the potential backup, while others worried about added complications at an already busy international gateway.

Spring break 2026 amplified the pressure. MIA handled surges of tourists drawn to South Florida’s beaches and events, with security lines averaging around 30 minutes during peak evening hours in mid-March according to some reports. Officials implemented operational adjustments to improve passenger flow, including better lane management and encouragement of trusted traveler programs.

TSA PreCheck emerged as a key mitigator. Enrolled passengers frequently cleared screening in 1-5 minutes, even during busier periods. In February, the agency expanded TSA PreCheck Touchless ID at MIA, allowing eligible travelers to use facial recognition or mobile boarding passes for even faster processing. The technology rollout is part of a broader initiative to equip dozens more airports with biometric tools aimed at reducing document checks by up to 30%.

Despite the challenges, many recent visitors reported smoother experiences entering April. Reddit users and social media posts from early April described TSA lines at MIA as “surprisingly fast,” with some clearing from curb to concourse in as little as 13 minutes. One traveler called it “the shortest easiest line I’ve ever had at this notorious TSA checkpoint.” Real-time trackers like Flightqueue.com showed standard waits consistently under 15 minutes on multiple days, a notable improvement from March peaks.

Weather compounded problems earlier in the season. Thunderstorms and winter systems delayed or canceled hundreds of flights regionally, forcing rebookings and adding congestion. Airlines reduced schedules in some cases to ease pressure on air traffic control, which also faced unpaid staff. FlightAware data captured thousands of national disruptions during the height of the crisis.

MIA officials emphasized proactive measures. The airport’s mobile app provides real-time checkpoint wait times, interactive maps and flight status alerts. Passengers can scan boarding passes for personalized guidance. TSA recommends using the MyTSA app to check historical busyness by day and time, review the 3-1-1 liquids rule and prepare for screening to minimize delays.

Travel experts advise arriving at least two to three hours early for domestic flights and longer for international departures, especially during holidays or when staffing issues persist. Enrolling in TSA PreCheck or CLEAR can save significant time for frequent flyers. Removing liquids, electronics and outer layers in advance also speeds the process.

The funding standoff highlighted vulnerabilities in the aviation security system. TSA employs roughly 64,000 officers nationwide, many of whom felt “abandoned” during the unpaid period, according to union statements. Even after resolution, full staffing recovery could take days or weeks as agencies process back pay and rehiring.

As conditions normalize in April, MIA continues handling millions of passengers annually as South Florida’s primary international gateway. The airport serves major carriers including American Airlines, with extensive connections to Latin America and the Caribbean.

For the latest updates, travelers should check miami-airport.com/tsa-waittimes.asp or the TSA website. Officials continue monitoring operations closely and adjusting staffing as needed.

While the worst of the shutdown-related chaos appears to have eased at MIA, unpredictable variables like weather, holidays and federal budget negotiations mean vigilance remains essential. Passengers who plan ahead — using apps, trusted traveler programs and realistic arrival buffers — report the smoothest journeys through one of the nation’s busiest airports.

In the end, the recent strains at Miami International Airport’s TSA checkpoints served as a reminder of the human element behind airport security. Officers working extended hours without timely pay kept the lines moving as best they could, while millions of travelers adapted with patience and preparation. As federal talks progress, both sides hope to avoid repeating the disruptions that turned routine screenings into headline-making ordeals during spring break 2026.

Mumbai: Aggregate net profit of the Nifty 50 companies for the March quarter is likely to dip year-on-year on account of a combination of factors, including one-time gains reported by a few companies in the year-ago quarter and lower expected profit of select banking, pharma and IT companies. According to the ETIG estimates, net profit is expected to fall 1.1% year-on-year in the March 2026 quarter. Revenue is expected to grow 8.3% year-on-year after hitting a 9-10% range in the prior two quarters.

“Indian corporate earnings are expected to be slightly subdued in the March quarter, driven by geopolitical escalations in West Asia and operational challenges for most companies due to a rise in commodity prices,” said Shweta Rajani, associate director, Anand Rathi Wealth. She added that the impact of higher commodity prices is expected to weigh on profitability across sectors including consumption, manufacturing, and industrials where input cost pressures may not be fully passed on.

Barring one-off items, the earnings growth for the sample is expected to be in low-to-mid single digit. “We expect earnings of the companies under our coverage to grow 10% year-on-year and Nifty 50 earnings to grow 6% for the March 2026 quarter,” said Gautam Duggad, institutional research head, Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

The ETIG estimates exclude the financials of Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles since the year-ago numbers are not comparable after the company’s commercial vehicles business was split and formed into a separate listed entity.

The sample’s operating margin is likely to contract by 70 basis points year-on-year to 22.2% for the March quarter. “Higher crude and commodity prices are likely to put pressure on margins across sectors such as consumption, industrials, and manufacturing,” said Rajani. The margin has remained in a range of 22-24% over the past five quarters to December 2025.

On the sector front, sectors including automobiles, banking and financial services, metals are likely to fare better while IT companies, select pharma and consumer durables companies are likely to report subdued numbers.
After a challenging environment in FY26, analysts expect recovery in the current fiscal year. “The earnings trajectory across segments indicates that FY26 is likely to be a year of consolidation, followed by a meaningful recovery in FY27,”said Rajani. She expects 12% earnings growth for Nifty 50 companies in FY27 compared with an estimated 4-6% growth in FY26 based on likelihood of stabilisation in global demand conditions, improving operating leverage and momentum in the capital expenditure cycle. Duggad expects a plethora of policy measures should incrementally prop up earnings growth. “Currently, we estimate over 13% and 11% annualised earnings growth for companies under our coverage and for the Nifty respectively over FY25-27,” he said.

ORLANDO, Fla. — Security lines at Orlando International Airport moved swiftly Tuesday, with TSA wait times averaging under 20 minutes across most checkpoints as the busy 2026 spring break season wound down, airport officials and real-time trackers reported.

As of midday April 7, official displays on the airport’s website showed general security waits of 0-2 minutes at Gates 1-59, Gates 70-129 and the C gates area, though these figures can fluctuate rapidly with passenger volume. Third-party monitors like Takeoff Timer and airlineairport.com placed typical waits between 10-20 minutes during standard hours, rising toward 20-30 minutes in peak morning and afternoon rushes.

The Greater Orlando Aviation Authority advises travelers to arrive at the airport three hours before domestic flights and reach the security checkpoint at least two hours prior to departure. That buffer provides ample cushion even on busier days at one of the nation’s busiest tourist gateways.

Orlando International, known by its code MCO, handled record passenger numbers during the six-week spring break window that concluded around April 7. Officials projected more than 600,000 travelers on some peak weekends in March, with daily counts exceeding 200,000 on the busiest days. Despite the surge, security waits remained manageable compared to past holiday peaks, thanks in part to expanded TSA staffing, technology upgrades and voluntary reservation tools.

MCO features multiple security checkpoints serving its North and South terminals and various gate areas. Travelers bound for Gates 1-59 often encounter slightly longer lines during morning departures, while those heading to Gates 70-129 or the C concourse frequently report shorter waits. TSA PreCheck lanes consistently cut times to near zero for enrolled passengers, who remove shoes, belts and laptops less frequently.

The airport promotes its free MCO Reserve system, allowing passengers without PreCheck or CLEAR to book a specific security time slot in advance via the MCO app or website. Officials say the tool helps spread out crowds and reduces stress during high-volume periods. The MCO mobile app also delivers live checkpoint updates, flight status and navigation assistance throughout the sprawling facility.

Real-time data from sites such as flightqueue.com, ifly.com and takeofftimer.com showed short waits early Tuesday, with some checkpoints reporting under 10 minutes even as afternoon departures built. Hourly forecasts suggested potential increases to 18-21 minutes in the evening window before tapering overnight. Early morning slots from 5-7 a.m. typically offer the shortest lines at 10-15 minutes, while 7-9 a.m. and 3-6 p.m. see the longest at 20-45 minutes on busier days.

TSA PreCheck enrollment continues to grow at MCO, providing faster screening for millions of frequent travelers. CLEAR biometric lanes offer another expedited option at the entrance to security for those who subscribe. Families, military members and individuals needing assistance can access dedicated lanes where available.

Travelers shared mixed but generally positive experiences on social media and forums in recent weeks. Many reported 15-25 minute waits even during late March peaks, crediting efficient staffing and new lane configurations. Others advised downloading the MyTSA app, which crowd-sources wait times from passengers already at the airport.

The Transportation Security Administration emphasizes that wait times remain fluid and subject to sudden changes based on flight schedules, weather disruptions or staffing levels. A partial government shutdown earlier in 2026 raised concerns about potential delays at Florida airports, but MCO officials reported no major operational impacts, with TSA PreCheck and Global Entry remaining fully active.

Orlando’s tourism-driven traffic creates unique patterns. International arrivals, particularly from Latin America and Europe, add volume to customs and border processes after security, while domestic leisure travelers dominate departure lines. The airport’s two-terminal design with airside shuttles means passengers must factor in time to reach their gates after clearing security.

Experts recommend several strategies to minimize delays at MCO:

• Enroll in TSA PreCheck or CLEAR for faster processing.
• Use the MCO Reserve tool to book a security slot.
• Pack liquids in a single quart-size bag and remove laptops and large electronics early.
• Wear slip-on shoes and avoid bulky belts or jewelry.
• Check the official flymco.com/security page or app immediately before heading to the checkpoint.
• Consider off-peak flights when possible.

During the height of spring break, some mornings saw waits approach 30-40 minutes at busier checkpoints, prompting the airport to urge extra arrival time. Post-holiday Tuesday traffic appeared lighter, with many families returning home and business travel resuming a steadier pace.

The airport has invested heavily in technology, including advanced imaging systems and automated screening lanes that allow passengers to leave more items in carry-on bags. These upgrades have helped keep average waits competitive with other major hubs despite MCO’s high volume.

For those connecting through Orlando or arriving on early flights, late-night and overnight security lines often dip below 10 minutes, offering smoother experiences for red-eye travelers.

Parking and ground transportation also factor into planning. MCO offers on-site garages, economy lots and rideshare options, but heavy days can mean longer walks or waits for shuttles. Officials suggest checking the MCO app for real-time parking availability.

As summer travel planning begins, MCO anticipates another busy season with continued growth in both domestic and international routes. Airlines have added flights to meet demand from theme park visitors, beachgoers and convention attendees.

Travelers with questions about prohibited items or screening procedures can consult the TSA website or MyTSA app, which includes a “What Can I Bring?” tool. Remember the 3-1-1 liquids rule: containers of 3.4 ounces or less in a single quart bag.

While waits at Orlando International remain shorter than nightmare scenarios seen at some congested hubs, preparation remains key. Checking multiple sources — the airport website, MyTSA app and third-party trackers — gives the clearest picture before leaving for the airport.

Airport spokesperson Angela Starke has repeatedly stressed proactive planning. “We want every traveler to have a smooth experience at MCO,” she said in earlier statements during peak periods. “Arriving early, using available tools and following TSA guidelines helps everyone move through security faster.”

On this Tuesday in early April, with spring break crowds thinning, most passengers cleared security without significant hassle. Still, the message from MCO remains consistent: better to build in extra time than risk missing a flight.

For the latest updates, visit flymco.com/security or download the MCO and MyTSA apps. Real-time conditions can shift quickly, especially as afternoon departures increase or if weather affects regional flights.

Whether heading to a business meeting, family vacation or returning home, knowing current Orlando International Airport TSA wait times helps turn potential stress into a seamless start to the journey.

This article was written by

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After a phase of prolonged correction and valuation reset, Indian equities are beginning to offer selective opportunities across sectors.

In an interaction with Kshitij Anand of ETMarkets, Niraj Kumar, Chief Investment Officer at Generali Central Life Insurance, highlighted that financials and IT services have turned attractive from a risk-reward perspective, with several stocks trading at compelling valuations.

He also pointed to microfinance as a key turnaround play, supported by improving credit cycles after a period of stress.

While near-term uncertainties linked to global geopolitics persist, Kumar believes investors with a medium-term horizon can benefit by positioning in sectors with earnings visibility and structural growth tailwinds. Edited Excerpts –

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Q) Thanks for taking the time out. FY26 returns have turned negative due to geopolitical concerns around West Asia. How do you sum up the financial year?
A) FY26 was largely a year of consolidation for the markets. It began on a strong note, with multiple growth stimulants starting to translate into economic activity.
Fiscal measures such as income tax and GST cuts, accommodative monetary policy through repo rate reductions and ample liquidity, and regulatory support including the deferral of ECL and Project Finance guidelines had begun to show tangible impact.

Markets reflected this optimism, with the Nifty rising ~7% and the Midcap Index gaining ~15% till end February.

However, the escalation of the West Asian conflict triggered a sharp risk off phase in March. India’s dependence on energy imports, resulting macro pressures, and relatively lower appeal for global capital—amid slower earnings growth, elevated valuations, and limited AI led narratives—led to a steep correction, with the Nifty declining ~11% in March alone.

That said, broader markets displayed relative resilience. Overall, FY26 concluded on a softer note, with the Nifty down ~5%, while the Nifty Midcap 100 delivered modest positive returns of ~2%.
Looking ahead, history suggests that markets often rebound meaningfully once geopolitical conflicts stabilise. As clarity emerges on the West Asian situation, there is a reasonable case for a sharper recovery, setting the stage for a more constructive and rewarding FY27.Q) As we head towards FY27, what are the key triggers investors should keep in mind for a market reversal or return of bullish sentiment?
A) We remain constructive on FY27. After nearly two years of time and price correction, the risk reward for Indian equities has turned favourable.
While domestic fundamentals were improving and sentiment had strengthened post the Indo US trade agreement, geopolitical developments have temporarily dampened confidence.

The most immediate trigger for a market reversal would be de escalation in the West Asian conflict, particularly a ceasefire or diplomatic resolution between the US and Iran.

Beyond geopolitics, markets will closely track Q4 earnings and management commentary, especially around the resilience of growth despite recent disruptions. Sectors and companies offering visibility on earnings recovery are likely to be rewarded.

Q) Which sectors should be on investors’ radar for FY27?
A) We advocate a diversified portfolio approach. Financials remain a key focus area—across banks and NBFCs—where concerns around LPG/LNG disruptions impacting growth and asset quality have led to sharp derating.

Several stocks are now trading below COVID era valuation troughs. While near term earnings risks exist, we do not equate the current environment to COVID, and valuations offer a compelling margin of safety with meaningful upside potential.

Within lending, Microfinance stands out as a turnaround opportunity. After an 18 month period of borrower stress driven by excess leverage, the inherently short credit cycle suggests we are closer to recovery.

We also like non lending financials such as asset managers, brokers, and exchanges, which benefit from strong structural growth themes.

Post the recent correction, we have turned overweight on IT services. Market concerns around AI disruptions overlook the sector’s strong historical record of adapting to technology shifts.

AI led enterprise adoption will require large scale implementation, integration, and customization—areas where IT services companies are indispensable.

Valuations are now attractive, with mid teen multiples and 5–6% free cash flow yields, implying near zero terminal growth assumptions.

We also remain positive on domestic cyclical sectors including Power and Capital Goods, supported by the energy transition theme, and Materials—particularly Cement and Metals.

Q) How should one approach gold and silver in the new financial year?
A) Gold continues to serve as a strategic hedge against inflation and currency debasement and should remain part of a core portfolio.

However, investors should recognise that gold typically moves in phases—periods of consolidation followed by sharp upswings, often during geopolitical stress.

The recent correction in gold prices appears driven by temporary factors such as weaker Middle East demand and central bank selling to defend currencies amid geopolitical tensions. We view this pullback as an opportunity to rebalance allocations toward gold.

Silver, on the other hand, is largely an industrial metal. While supply deficits exist, higher prices often lead to demand substitution. Given this dynamic, we do not see silver as a preferred long term portfolio allocation.

Q) How are we positioned against peers in terms of valuations?
A) India continues to trade at a premium to both developed and emerging market peers. The Nifty 50’s valuation premium versus the MSCI EM Index remains around ~40%, slightly below long-term averages.

While this premium has narrowed, global flows have favoured markets such as South Korea, Taiwan, and Brazil, driven by strong AI led or commodity linked earnings growth.

It is important to recognise why India has historically commanded a valuation premium: the longevity of growth driven by favorable demographics and rising discretionary consumption, and the breadth of investible opportunities, with nearly 500 companies exceeding USD 1 billion in market capitalization.

In contrast, many EM peers have highly concentrated indices. Consequently, while Indian valuations may appear optically expensive, we expect the structural premium to persist.

Q) Will FII flows reverse in FY27? How do you interpret domestic and global flows?
A) Capital flows ultimately follow returns and economic outlook. India’s underperformance versus both developed and emerging market peers over the past few years—driven by high starting valuations, slower earnings growth, and limited AI led drivers—had led to sustained FII outflows.

Importantly, just ahead of the West Asian conflict, foreign flows had begun to improve, reflecting growing comfort on valuations and a nascent recovery in earnings expectations.

The escalation of geopolitical tensions temporarily disrupted this improving trend. However, following the recent correction, the Nifty 50’s 12-month forward PE has moderated to ~17.5x, below its long-term average.

Even under conservative assumptions of flat earnings growth, valuations are now broadly in line with post COVID norms. While near term volatility may persist, the balance of risks has become increasingly favourable.

As geopolitical conditions stabilise, we believe FII flows could recover sharply, supported by India’s strong structural growth, improving earnings visibility, and attractive valuations. This phase therefore calls for investment managers to proactively position portfolios with a medium-term perspective, recognising that global economies will ultimately need to collaborate to resolve the conflict.

In the interim, strong and resilient domestic liquidity continues to provide a powerful backstop and reinforces confidence in the market’s underlying strength.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)

With crude oil sticking above the $100 barrel mark, India’s market resilience faces a countdown. Geojit’s Chief Investment Strategist Dr. V K Vijayakumar warns that while the economy can absorb a temporary shock, a prolonged two-week spike threatens a domino effect on inflation and GDP. As geopolitical tensions simmer, the window for a “painless” recovery is closing, leaving investors on high alert.

Edited excerpts from a chat on market outlook and opportunities:

Crude oil prices have been hovering above $100 a barrel mark. At what level, do you think the India equity story starts becoming meaningfully uncomfortable for investors?
For an oil importer like India, the impact of high oil prices can turn out to be very adverse if the prices remain elevated for an extended period. A 10% increase in crude (estimated roughly at $10) causes about 20 bp reduction in GDP growth, 30 bp increase in CPI inflation and 30 to 40 bp increase in current account deficit.This adverse macro impact will manifest if the crude price remains elevated for long. In the ongoing crisis, the durability of the crisis is significant. If the war ends soon (it can end any time) or if there is significant de-escalation and opening of the Hormuz Strait, crude can immediately fall to $80 level. In such a scenario, the adverse impact will not manifest. Another two weeks of crude above $100 is a temporary shock which the Indian economy can absorb. But beyond that, the economy and markets will be impacted.

Do you think the market is still underpricing the second-order effects of war, especially on inflation expectations, bond yields, and consumer sentiment?
The market is even now discounting a quick end to the war and cooling of oil prices. The market is not discounting a prolonged war and elevated crude oil price for long. Contrary to market expectations, if the conflict escalates and crude rises above $120 and remains at that level for many weeks, the market will further correct from the present levels. Everything boils down to how long the conflict continues, more importantly, how long Hormuz Strait remains restrictive.
How vulnerable is Q4 earnings season to this backdrop? Which sectors do you expect to show the sharpest earnings impact in Q4 from elevated crude and freight costs?
Q4 is unlikely to impact earnings significantly. The impact will be felt in Q1 FY27. However, the war and the consequent uncertainty will show up in some segments. Industries using petroleum inputs like paints, adhesives, and tyres will be hit. Manufacturers using LNG as fuel like verified tiles have been hit hard. Exporters will gain from currency tailwinds. IT will gain; but the Anthropic shock will continue to weigh on the segment. Exporters to the Gulf region will be impacted marginally.

Do you expect another round of earnings downgrades over the next few weeks if oil stays elevated?
If crude remains elevated and gas availability restrictions continue, another round of earnings downgrade will become inevitable. Earnings downgrades will be in import intensive and crude related segments mentioned earlier.

Has the small cap correction created genuine value, or are pockets of the segment still frothy despite the damage?
Correction in small caps has opened value in many segments. Broadly small cap valuations continue to be high, but there are segments with attractive valuations and high growth prospects. These are across industries and, therefore, stock selection holds the key to successful investment. An ideal strategy would be to invest in small cap mutual funds.

How are you thinking about banks in this setup, especially if higher inflation complicates the rate outlook?
Banking is one segment that is attractively valued now. Sustained selling by FPIs in leading large private sector banks has made the valuations in the segment attractive. This segment is an excellent long-term buy for investors. Credit growth in the economy continues to be good. The MPC is unlikely to increase the interest rates soon since inflation arising from supply shocks cannot be addressed through rate hikes.

Help us understand why PSU bank stocks have been the worst hit and whether one should be brave enough to buy the dip as the growth story looks promising but yields are playing spoilsport?
PSU bank stocks had a good run recently. What we are witnessing now is profit booking in the segment. This segment can be considered selectively for investment.

If the market was to rebound from here, which sectors do you think will lead the rally?
In the event of a sharp bounce back in the market, all beaten down but fundamentally strong stocks will rally smartly. But if FPIs continue to sell the rally, large cap banking names may continue to disappoint despite the strong fundamentals and attractive valuations. IT appears set for a tactical bounce back in April since the Q4 results are unlikely to disappoint. Automobiles and auto ancillaries are on a strong wicket. Telecom will remain resilient. Pharmaceuticals have potential to appreciate.