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MTM losses likely for lenders as yields on govt bonds hit 12-month high

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MTM losses likely for lenders as yields on govt bonds hit 12-month high
Mumbai: Banks may face significant mark-to-market (MTM) losses in the March quarter as rising sovereign bond yields erode the value of their government securities portfolios. India’s 10-year government bond yield climbed to a 12-month high of 6.96% on March 27, up from 6.68% at the start of the month, rising nearly 28 basis points in March alone. The increase has been driven by escalating geopolitical tensions, the ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict, and higher global crude oil prices that have revived inflation concerns.

Bankers and analysts said that despite the Reserve Bank of India’s aggressive intervention through open market operation (OMO) purchases-₹1.77 lakh crore in March alone and ₹4.57 lakh crore over the entire fourth quarter-banks are unlikely to escape the quarter unscathed. MTM losses on government securities portfolios are expected to weigh on earnings.

“For me, 6.95% was the worst-case scenario, which was breached on Friday, and I don’t think many banks will have a positive book,” said Alok Singh, treasury head at CSB Bank. “Most banks would have bought bonds between the 6.30% and 6.70% levels this fiscal year, and after Friday’s close these portfolios are off the curve by about 30 basis points, which is negative from a book-running perspective.”

MTM Losses Likely for Lenders as Yields on Govt Bonds Hit 12-M HighAgencies

Rising yields dent bond portfolios, weighing on treasury income despite RBI’s OMO support

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MTM losses likely for lenders as yields on govt bonds hit 12-month high

Rising sovereign bond yields are expected to cause significant mark-to-market losses for banks in the March quarter. Despite RBI’s open market operation purchases, escalating geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns have pushed 10-year government bond yields to a 12-month high, impacting bank portfolios.


The RBI stepped up intervention in early March, frequently purchasing bonds on-screen during the final hour of trading-a move widely seen as an attempt to cap the rise in yields. On several occasions, yields eased by 3-6 basis points in the last half hour of trade, even as broader market sentiment weakened amid geopolitical risks.
The strain on banks’ treasury books is not new. Banks had witnessed moderation in treasury income in the December quarter after peaking in the June quarter due to swings in the yields. Even when yields traded in the 6.47%-6.57% range between October and December 2025, banks faced MTM pressure.


In the December quarter the the net trading and MTM income for HDFC Bank fell to ₹9 billion versus ₹24 billion in the September quarter and ₹101 billion in the June quarter.
The new year brought little relief, with yields crossing 6.60% in January before accelerating further in March. “The surge in government bond yields is likely to hit banks’ treasury earnings in the March quarter despite RBI OMO support,” said Prakash Agarwal, partner at Gefion Capital, adding that inflation worries stemming from higher oil prices, West Asia tensions and rising global yields continue to push yields higher. However, some bankers are hopeful of limited near-term relief. “I expect MTM losses due to hardening yields, but there could be some respite on Monday,” said Gopal Tripathi, head of treasury at Jana Small Finance Bank.

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Technical indicators signal caution despite historically positive June performance: Rupak De

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Technical indicators signal caution despite historically positive June performance: Rupak De
As investors enter June with hopes of seasonal strength, technical indicators are flashing warning signs that could challenge historical market trends. While June has traditionally been a positive month for Indian equities, the current geopolitical backdrop and weakening chart patterns suggest that volatility may remain elevated in the weeks ahead.

Speaking to ET Now, Rupak De, Sr Tech Analyst, LKP Securities highlighted that although June has generally delivered gains for the Nifty over the last decade, the market’s current setup appears less encouraging.

According to De, the last three Junes have ended in positive territory, and most June performances over the past 10 years have generated gains, with average returns of around 1.5%. However, he noted that historical patterns also show that after every three positive Junes, the market has often witnessed a negative June.

“So, the last three Junes have been positive if we look at the last 10 years’ data. Overall, the performance of June has been positive in most cases, but the overall return has been around 1.5%. And if we look at the overall 10-year trend, after every three positive Junes, there has been a negative June. So, I expect the market to remain volatile. Maybe this time June may be weak, and Nifty might give a negative return in June.”

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Consolidation Breakdown Raises Near-Term Concerns

Beyond seasonal trends, De pointed to fresh technical weakness that emerged at the start of the month. He observed that the Nifty has broken below a rising trendline on the daily chart, a development that typically signals weakening momentum and increases the risk of further downside.
The breakdown, coupled with prevailing geopolitical uncertainties, has contributed to a cautious outlook for the benchmark index.
“When we are starting June, we have negative data. Today, Nifty has given a consolidation breakdown and has fallen below a rising trendline on the daily time frame. The sentiment looks bearish for the short term, and I expect the bearish sentiment to continue in the next few weeks as well.”
Key Levels to Watch on Nifty
From a technical perspective, De identified important support and resistance zones that traders should closely monitor.

According to him, Nifty has immediate support around the 23,250 mark. A breach of this level could open the door for a deeper correction towards 22,700. On the upside, the 24,000 level remains a significant hurdle that needs to be crossed before sentiment improves materially.

“On the lower end, Nifty has support at 23,250. Below that, it might correct further towards 22,700. So overall, sentiment looks bearish. On the higher end, resistance is there at 24,000. Till the time it remains below 24,000, bearish sentiment might prevail in the market.”

Bank Nifty Also Showing Signs of Weakness
The cautious outlook is not limited to the broader market. De believes the banking index is also displaying technical weakness after failing to sustain above a key moving average resistance level.

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Bank Nifty encountered resistance near its 50-day exponential moving average during the week and eventually closed below that level, reinforcing the bearish undertone.

“Next week, I expect overall bearishness. If we consider Bank Nifty, Bank Nifty is looking a bit bearish. During this week, it faced resistance around the 50-day exponential moving average, and it closed below it. The near-term sentiment for the banking index is also looking a bit bearish.”

Critical Support and Resistance for Bank Nifty
For Bank Nifty, De sees 53,000 as a crucial support level. Any sustained move below this mark could trigger additional downside pressure. On the upside, 54,700 remains a strong resistance zone that traders should keep an eye on.

“On the lower end, we have support at 53,000, and below that it might correct further. Whereas on the higher end, we have a very good resistance at 54,700. Till the time Bank Nifty remains below 54,700, sentiment is likely to remain bearish for Bank Nifty.”

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Outlook
While historical seasonality has generally favored bulls during June, technical indicators currently suggest a more cautious approach. With Nifty and Bank Nifty both trading below important resistance levels and broader uncertainty weighing on sentiment, market participants may need to brace for heightened volatility and the possibility of a weaker-than-usual June performance.

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Home care workers face fuel cost spike fears

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Home care workers face fuel cost spike fears

Home care workers must be paid for their mileage and travel time, a Sheffield-based carer says.

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Inox Wind shares crash 8% after Q4 profit drops 45% YoY. Should you buy, sell or hold?

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Inox Wind shares crash 8% after Q4 profit drops 45% YoY. Should you buy, sell or hold?
Shares of Inox Wind tumbled 8% on Monday after the company reported a consolidated net profit of Rs 105.68 crore for the January-March quarter of FY26, down 45% year-on-year (YoY) from Rs 190 crore in the corresponding quarter last year.

Shares of the company crashed to Rs 85.61 apiece on NSE, the lowest level since April 10 this year. The firm’s revenue from operations, meanwhile, fell over 2% YoY to Rs 1,244 crore during the fourth quarter of the financial year, which ended on March 31, 2026, from Rs 1,275 crore in the year-ago period. Total income declined marginally to Rs 1,306 crore, while total expenses increased more than 5% YoY to Rs 1,162 crore during the quarter under review.

Inox Wind’s EBITDA declined 6% YoY to Rs 333 crore. For the entire financial year 2026, the company reported a 3% rise in bottom line to Rs 449 crore.

JM Financial on Inox Wind

JM Financial highlighted that the company’s Q4 results were an “all-around” miss on estimates. Its revenue was nearly 25% lower than the brokerage’s estimates. “Since management has not shared details, we estimate execution of 85 MW versus 252 MW QoQ/236 MW YoY. Adjusted PAT moderated to Rs 1.1 billion (-44% YoY, -55% JMFe, -52% consensus). The company has an order book of 3.1GW including 1.5 GW from CESC and 750 MW from group companies. Given the challenges in connectivity, RoW and PPAs, we expect IWL to execute 900 MW/1,100 MW during FY27/28,” it said.

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The domestic brokerage maintained its ‘Add’ rating on the shares of Inox Wind, but reduced its target price to Rs 101 apiece. This implies an upside potential of nearly 9% from the stock’s previous closing price of Rs 93.02 apiece.

Motilal Oswal on Inox Wind

Motilal Oswal also highlighted that Inox Wind reported a weak set of numbers for Q4. However, it highlighted that the visibility of recurring captive order inflows from Inox Clean, which plans to add 3GW of renewable capacity annually with 20-30% expected to be wind-based, management’s strategy to gradually increase pure equipment supply contracts’ share in the order book from 27% currently to 75% over time, which should improve working capital efficiency and margins, and management’s FY27 revenue growth guidance of 75% YoY with EBITDA margins of 20-22% were the key things it liked about the results.

The domestic brokerage lowered its FY27 and FY28 EBITDA estimates by 7% and 6% respectively. It maintained its ‘Buy’ rating on the shares of Inox Wind, with a target price of Rs 110 per share, implying an upside potential of more than 18% from the stock’s previous closing price.

Inox Wind share price

Inox Wind shares have fallen more than 4% in one week and around 8% in one month to close at Rs 93.02 apiece on Friday. The stock is down more than 24% so far in 2026 and nearly 52% in one year.

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In the longer term, the shares of the company have delivered returns of more than 169% over three years and 386% over five years. The company currently has a market capitalisation of nearly Rs 9,307 crore. The stock’s P/E ratio stands at nearly 36.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

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Asian Paints shares rally 4% after Q4 results. Here’s what Nomura and Motilal Oswal are saying

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Asian Paints shares rally 4% after Q4 results. Here’s what Nomura and Motilal Oswal are saying
Shares of Asian Paints rallied as much as 4% to their day’s high of Rs 2,778 on the BSE on Monday after the company reported a consolidated net profit of Rs 1,172 crore for the fourth quarter of FY26, marking a 69% year-on-year increase from Rs 692 crore posted in the corresponding quarter last year. Revenue from operations during the January-March quarter rose 11% to Rs 9,228.46 crore, compared with Rs 8,349.59 crore reported a year earlier.

During the quarter under review, total income increased by more than 11% year-on-year to Rs 9,418 crore. Total expenses rose at a slower pace, increasing nearly 8% to Rs 7,829.17 crore.

EBITDA for the quarter rose 24.4% year-on-year to Rs 1,787 crore from Rs 1,436.2 crore in the corresponding period last year. EBITDA margin expanded by more than 200 basis points to 19.3%, compared with 17.2% a year earlier.

For the full financial year ended March 31, 2026, Asian Paints reported a consolidated net profit of Rs 4,325.35 crore, up 18% from Rs 3,667.23 crore recorded in the previous financial year. Annual revenue from operations rose around 5% year-on-year to Rs 35,583.54 crore in FY26.

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Asian Paints shares: Buy, sell or hold?

Nomura raised its target price to Rs 3,600 (35% upside) while maintaining a Buy rating, highlighting that the company not only retained but improved its guidance despite cumulative price hikes of around 13.5% year-to-date, including 10.5% implemented in April-May and a further 3% increase announced to dealers.
The brokerage noted that management’s decision to maintain volume growth guidance of 8-10% signals confidence in a strong demand environment. It also pointed to improved product mix guidance of -3% to -4%, compared with the earlier expectation of -5% to -6%, driven by a greater push towards premium and luxury paints, implying high-teens sales growth in FY27. The brokerage also maintained its operating margin guidance of 18-20% despite raw material inflation and competitive pressures. Nomura believes there is a high probability of crude oil prices moderating from current levels over the next six months, which could further support margins.
Motilal Oswal maintained its Neutral rating on Asian Paints with a target price of Rs 2,750, implying a modest upside of up to 3%. The brokerage raised its FY27 and FY28 earnings estimates by 3%-4%, citing better-than-expected revenue performance. However, it cautioned that the uncertain geopolitical environment and persistent inflationary pressures could continue to weigh on overall demand. Management has guided for high single-digit volume growth in FY27 despite significant price hikes, supported by a favourable base, more painting days due to El Niño conditions and an extended festive season.
The brokerage expects standalone EBITDA margins of 19.1% and 19.5% for FY27 and FY28, respectively, while consolidated margins are projected at 18.2% and 18.6%. It also noted that paint demand has remained subdued over the past two years, and recent price increases could delay a broader demand recovery. To counter competitive pressures, Asian Paints continues to focus on product innovation, strengthening brand salience, regionalisation and execution.

JM Financial upgraded Asian Paints to Add with a target price of Rs 2,815, implying an upside of 5.4%. The brokerage believes the company’s FY27 revenue outlook remains encouraging, supported by management’s volume growth guidance of 8-10%. Combined with double-digit price increases, including hikes of around 10.4% already implemented and an additional 2-4% announced from June, along with a lower adverse mix impact of 3-4%, this is expected to drive mid-teen sales growth in FY27. JM Financial noted that demand trends remained stable during April and May, while management remains optimistic about business momentum in the second and third quarters of FY27, aided by a longer festive season.

Also read: PSU bank stocks vs private banks in FY27: The valuation trap you need to avoid

The brokerage also highlighted that management has reiterated its EBITDA margin guidance of 18-20% despite significant raw material inflation, supported by price hikes, sourcing efficiencies, an improved product mix and calibrated spending. However, the company expects competitive intensity in the paints sector to remain elevated.

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(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

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Beef Up, Eggs Down

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Beef Up, Eggs Down

Beef Up, Eggs Down

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John Hancock Multimanager 2025 Lifetime Portfolio Q1 2026 Commentary

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John Hancock Multimanager 2025 Lifetime Portfolio Q1 2026 Commentary

A company of Manulife Investment Management, John Hancock Investment Management serves investors through a unique multimanager approach, complementing our extensive in-house capabilities with an unrivaled network of specialized asset managers, backed by some of the most rigorous investment oversight in the industry. The result is a diverse lineup of time-tested investments from a premier asset manager with a heritage of financial stewardship. Note: This account is not managed or monitored by John Hancock Investment Management, and any messages sent via Seeking Alpha will not receive a response. For inquiries or communication, please use John Hancock Investment Management’s official channels.

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Undercovered stocks: Aeluma, Agnico Eagle, Ciena, Rayonier And More

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Undercovered stocks: Aeluma, Agnico Eagle, Ciena, Rayonier And More

This article was written by

Some tickers are covered more than others on the site, so with The Undercovered Dozen our Editors highlight twelve actionable investment ideas on tickers with less coverage. These ideas can range from “boring” large caps to promising up-and-coming small caps. Specifically, the inclusion criteria for “undercovered” include: market cap greater than $100 million, more than 800 symbol page views in the last 90 days on Seeking Alpha, and fewer than two articles published in the past 30 days. Follow this account to receive a weekly review of twelve of these undercovered ideas from our valued analysts.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given that any particular security, portfolio, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The author is not advising you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security or other matter. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any investment, security or strategy, or any product or service, is appropriate or suitable for you based on your investment objectives and personal and financial situation. The author is an employee of Seeking Alpha. Any views or opinions expressed herein may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank.

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Wockhardt shares rocket 19% after FDA approval for antibiotic targeting drug-resistant infections. Check details

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Wockhardt shares rocket 19% after FDA approval for antibiotic targeting drug-resistant infections. Check details
Shares of Wockhardt soared as much as 19% to their day’s high of Rs 2,420 on the BSE on Monday after the company announced that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has approved ZAYNICH (cefepime and zidebactam), a novel intravenous antibiotic for the treatment of adults with complicated urinary tract infections (UTI), including pyelonephritis, caused by susceptible Gram-negative pathogens.

According to the company, ZAYNICH combines the fourth-generation cephalosporin cefepime with zidebactam and is designed to target multiple penicillin-binding proteins simultaneously. The antibiotic had earlier received Qualified Infectious Disease Product (QIDP) and Fast Track designations from the FDA.

The approval comes at a time when antimicrobial resistance remains a major healthcare challenge. Wockhardt cited data indicating that more than 2.8 million antimicrobial-resistant infections occur annually in the United States, resulting in over 35,000 deaths each year.

The company also noted that complicated urinary tract infections account for more than 6,00,000 hospitalisations annually in the U.S., with a growing proportion linked to antimicrobial-resistant and multidrug-resistant bacteria.

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The FDA’s decision was based in part on results from the Phase 3 ENHANCE-1 study, a randomised, double-blind, multicentre trial that evaluated the efficacy, safety and tolerability of ZAYNICH against meropenem in hospitalised adults with complicated urinary tract infections or acute pyelonephritis.


Also read: FDA approval puts Wockhardt’s Zaynich in $9 billion antibiotics market
In the study, ZAYNICH achieved a composite clinical cure and microbiological response rate of 89% at the test-of-cure visit, compared with 68.4% for meropenem. The treatment difference was 20.6% with a 95% confidence interval of 12.3 to 29.5. The company said the drug was generally well tolerated during the trial.The ENHANCE-1 study enrolled 530 patients across 64 sites spanning the United States, Europe, Latin America, China and India.

Wockhardt stated that ZAYNICH targets penicillin-binding proteins PBP 1a/b, 2 and 3 simultaneously, a mechanism that it says provides bactericidal activity against multidrug-resistant Gram-negative bacteria for which treatment options remain limited.

The company also disclosed that ZAYNICH received approval from the Drugs Controller General of India (DCGI) on May 27, 2026. In addition, Wockhardt has submitted a Marketing Authorisation Application (MAA) to the European Medicines Agency for the antibiotic.

Sensex, Nifty today: Catch all the LIVE stock market action here
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

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US says it struck Iranian military sites, Tehran responds with air base attack

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US says it struck Iranian military sites, Tehran responds with air base attack


US says it struck Iranian military sites, Tehran responds with air base attack

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Asia’s factory output expands as firms stockpile buffers over Iran war risks

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Asia’s factory output expands as firms stockpile buffers over Iran war risks


Asia’s factory output expands as firms stockpile buffers over Iran war risks

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