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Oil shock fears ease, but $80-$90 crude may be the new normal: Arvind Sanger

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Oil shock fears ease, but $80-$90 crude may be the new normal: Arvind Sanger
As tensions in West Asia continue to dominate global conversations, market participants are trying to assess whether the worst of the oil shock is over or if another spike in crude prices still lies ahead. According to market expert Arvind Sanger from Geosphere Capital, the probability of oil surging back to extreme levels has reduced significantly, although prices are unlikely to return to the comfort zone seen before the conflict.

Speaking to ET Now, Sanger said both the United States and Iran appear increasingly inclined toward a negotiated settlement, lowering the chances of a severe disruption in oil supply.

“The probability of a spike is much lower now because it is very clear that President Trump wants a deal and Iran wants a deal too and it knows it is getting a deal on much more favourable terms,” Sanger said.

While fears of crude touching $150 a barrel have faded, he cautioned that oil is unlikely to revisit the $60-$70 range anytime soon. Instead, markets may need to adjust to a prolonged phase of elevated energy prices.

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Oil May Stay Elevated for Months

Sanger believes the unwinding of supply disruptions will not happen overnight. Even if geopolitical tensions cool, logistical bottlenecks and depleted global inventories are likely to keep crude prices firm for an extended period.“It is going to take months not weeks for things to normalise,” he said.
According to him, once oil flows from the Persian Gulf stabilise, consuming nations will begin rebuilding inventories that were heavily depleted during the conflict period. That process itself could create additional demand pressure.
“So, both of those mean that oil is probably going to sustain $80 to $90,” he noted, adding that Brent crude could still briefly move back toward $110 if the supply normalisation process takes longer than expected.

However, he stressed that the likelihood of another runaway rally similar to earlier fears of $150 crude remains low unless the region witnesses a major escalation again.

Inflation Risks Still Remain
While $85-$90 oil may not severely damage global growth, Sanger warned that the broader inflation picture remains concerning. Energy inflation is no longer limited to crude oil alone, with natural gas, fertilisers, and other commodities also contributing to price pressures worldwide.

“The risk from that inflationary spiral or persistent high inflation is that central bankers may be forced to be a little more hawkish,” he said.

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Higher-for-longer inflation could force several central banks to maintain tight monetary policies or even raise rates again, potentially slowing economic growth in the short term.

Still, Sanger argued that structurally stronger drivers such as artificial intelligence-led investments are unlikely to be derailed by moderately elevated oil prices.

“I think that AI theme is going to remain to be a powerful theme,” he said, suggesting that the global technology and infrastructure cycle remains robust despite energy market volatility.

Trump-Iran Negotiations Enter a Delicate Phase
Sanger also offered a sharp assessment of the ongoing negotiations between the US and Iran, suggesting that Washington is under mounting pressure to secure a deal that does not appear politically damaging domestically.

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“It is pretty clear that Iran has come out on top. US has come out looking very ineffective in this war,” he remarked.

According to Sanger, former US President Donald Trump now faces competing pressures from different factions within his political base. Anti-war supporters within the MAGA movement are opposed to deeper military involvement, while hawkish groups are resistant to offering concessions to Iran.

He pointed out that Iran is demanding sanctions relief and upfront financial commitments, making negotiations politically sensitive for Trump, who had earlier criticised previous administrations for being too lenient toward Tehran.

Sanger believes the biggest challenge now lies in crafting a deal that allows both sides to claim victory domestically.

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“The biggest risk is that Iran is asking for so much that Trump is going to have a hard time pretending that the US won,” he said.

He warned that if negotiations drag on for weeks or months, oil markets could again become vulnerable due to low inventories and continued uncertainty around shipping routes in the region.

What It Means for India
For emerging markets like India, easing crude volatility would provide significant relief, especially given the country’s dependence on imported energy and fertilisers.

Sanger said India would benefit if oil price upside risks fade and fertiliser supply concerns ease. However, he also cautioned that the dominant global investment narrative has shifted heavily toward artificial intelligence, an area where India is not currently viewed as a primary beneficiary.

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“If the theme of the moment is AI, then India is on the outside looking in,” he said.

According to him, India will need to demonstrate stronger domestic growth drivers beyond the global AI boom, particularly at a time when inflationary pressures could remain elevated.

As global markets navigate a fragile geopolitical environment, Sanger’s outlook suggests that while fears of an extreme oil shock may have moderated, the era of cheap crude may already be behind us.

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Figure to acquire Kiavi for $717 million in blockchain push

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10x Genomics: Temporary Pain, Long-Term Gain As Atera Rollout Approaches

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10x Genomics: Temporary Pain, Long-Term Gain As Atera Rollout Approaches

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Can Wembanyama Lead San Antonio Back in NBA Finals

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Jalen Brunson

NEW YORK — The 2026 NBA Finals shift back to Madison Square Garden on Wednesday night for Game 4, with the New York Knicks holding a 2-1 series lead over the San Antonio Spurs after a thrilling 115-111 Spurs victory in Game 3. Victor Wembanyama’s dominant performance has San Antonio believing it can even the series on the road, while the Knicks aim to reclaim momentum and move within one win of their first championship since 1973.

Tipoff is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET. The Knicks enter as 2.5-point favorites, with the over/under set at 216.5 points. After dropping the first two games in San Antonio, the Spurs stole Game 3 in New York behind Wembanyama’s explosive 32-point, eight-rebound, six-assist, three-block, two-steal masterpiece and strong contributions from rookie Stephon Castle.

Wembanyama’s Emergence as the Focal Point

The 7-foot-4 phenom has elevated his play as the series progresses. In Game 3, Wembanyama delivered a full 48-minute effort that turned the tide in the fourth quarter. His ability to dominate both ends of the floor has become the Spurs’ clearest path to victory. Analysts highlight his improved low-post scoring and defensive versatility as keys to sustaining pressure against New York’s physical frontcourt.

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For San Antonio to force a Game 5 back home, Wembanyama must continue anchoring the offense while disrupting the Knicks’ rhythm. His presence forces constant adjustments from New York coach Tom Thibodeau, who must decide between double-teaming the big man or living with his scoring outbursts.

Knicks’ Response and Home Advantage

The Knicks, led by Jalen Brunson, have shown resilience throughout the playoffs. Brunson delivered 32 points in Game 3 but could not overcome the Spurs’ late surge. At Madison Square Garden, the Knicks will lean on their raucous home crowd and defensive identity to reassert control.

New York’s strength lies in its balanced attack and ability to grind out possessions. Players like Karl-Anthony Towns and Mikal Bridges provide secondary scoring and defensive versatility that can counter San Antonio’s length. The Knicks’ 13-game playoff winning streak ended in Game 3, adding urgency to avoid falling into a 2-2 tie.

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Tactical Keys and Adjustments

Coaches on both sides face critical decisions. For the Spurs, maintaining defensive intensity while feeding Wembanyama in advantageous spots will be paramount. San Antonio’s bench, including Castle’s fourth-quarter impact, must provide consistent energy on the road.

The Knicks will likely emphasize containing Wembanyama through help defense and forcing the ball out of his hands. Brunson’s pick-and-roll mastery and New York’s transition game could exploit any lapses in Spurs’ rotations. Rebounding and three-point efficiency are expected to be decisive factors in a series defined by half-court execution.

Series Context and Stakes

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The Finals matchup pits two franchises with storied histories but very different recent paths. The Knicks have built a contender through smart drafting and free agency, while the Spurs have ridden Wembanyama’s meteoric rise following years of rebuilding. A Spurs victory in Game 4 would send the series back to San Antonio with renewed belief, while a Knicks win would put them firmly in the driver’s seat.

Injuries and fatigue could play roles as the series reaches its midpoint. Both teams have managed minutes carefully, but the physical toll of playoff basketball intensifies with each game. Wembanyama’s durability after a strong Game 3 performance will be closely monitored.

Broader Implications

A prolonged series benefits the NBA’s global audience, with stars like Wembanyama and Brunson showcasing the league’s future. Wembanyama’s ability to “bring victory once again” could cement his status as a generational talent capable of leading a championship charge in only his third season.

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For the Knicks, closing out games at home remains a point of emphasis after letting Game 3 slip away. Thibodeau’s defensive schemes have been a hallmark of their success, and adjustments to counter San Antonio’s length will define the remainder of the series.

What to Watch in Game 4

Expect high-intensity basketball from the opening tip. Early foul trouble on either star could shift momentum quickly. Three-point shooting, particularly from the Spurs’ supporting cast, may determine if they can stretch the floor effectively against New York’s pack-line defense.

Fan atmosphere at Madison Square Garden is expected to be electric, providing the Knicks with a tangible home-court edge. The Spurs must withstand the pressure and execute their game plan to force the series back to Texas.

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Analysts project a competitive contest, with models favoring the under on total points due to strong defensive showings in prior games. Individual performances from Wembanyama and Brunson will likely dictate the outcome, as both have shouldered heavy scoring loads.

Historical Parallels and Outlook

The series echoes past Finals battles where young superstars faced veteran-led squads. Wembanyama’s poise under pressure has drawn comparisons to legendary big men, while the Knicks embody a gritty, team-first approach reminiscent of championship clubs from previous eras.

Regardless of Game 4’s result, the matchup has delivered compelling basketball and highlighted the league’s parity at the highest level. As the series continues, focus will remain on execution in critical moments and the ability of star players to elevate their teams.

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The Knicks hold the series advantage and home-court momentum, but Wembanyama’s Game 3 heroics have proven the Spurs are far from finished. Wednesday night’s contest promises another chapter in what has become a hard-fought, entertaining NBA Finals.

Both sides possess the talent and coaching to compete at an elite level. The outcome of Game 4 could shift the narrative dramatically, setting the stage for a memorable conclusion to the 2026 postseason. Fans and analysts alike will be watching to see if Wembanyama can once again deliver a victory that keeps San Antonio’s championship hopes alive.

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Needham raises CECO Environmental stock price target on Thermon deal

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Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) Presents at Morgan Stanley US Financials Conference 2026 – Slideshow

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OneWater Marine Inc. (ONEW) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) Presents at Morgan Stanley US Financials Conference 2026 – Slideshow

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Canaccord raises Datadog stock price target on AI product growth

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Concord Biotech shares gain 6% after USFDA approval for Tofacitinib tablets

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Concord Biotech shares gain 6% after USFDA approval for Tofacitinib tablets
Shares of Concord Biotech rose over 6% to their day’s high of Rs 1,350 on the BSE on Wednesday after the company announced that it had received approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (USFDA) for its Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA) for Tofacitinib Tablets in 5 mg and 10 mg strengths.

According to the company, the approval covers Tofacitinib Tablets indicated for the treatment of adult patients with moderately to severely active rheumatoid arthritis (RA), active psoriatic arthritis (PsA), active ankylosing spondylitis (AS), moderately to severely active ulcerative colitis (UC), active PsA, and active polyarticular course juvenile idiopathic arthritis (pcJIA).

The regulatory approval has been granted by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, the company said in its filing. Concord Biotech stated that the approval aligns with its growth strategy and is expected to strengthen its position in the U.S. market. The company added that the clearance allows it to expand its product portfolio and pursue opportunities in the U.S. and international markets.

According to market estimates cited by the company, the U.S. market opportunity for Tofacitinib Tablets across the 5 mg and 10 mg strengths is approximately $500 million. The approval pertains specifically to the company’s ANDA for Tofacitinib Tablets in the two approved dosage strengths. The company said the development supports its long-term growth plans and enhances its ability to participate in the relevant therapeutic segments in the United States.

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The company noted that the approval for Tofacitinib Tablets, 5 mg and 10 mg, is expected to strengthen its presence in the U.S. market while broadening its range of offerings. The approval also provides access to a market that the company estimates at approximately $500 million for the two strengths combined.

Concord Q4 snapshot

The R&D-focused biopharmaceutical company reported a 36.8% year-on-year decline in fourth-quarter net profit at Rs 88.8 crore, compared with Rs 140.4 crore in the corresponding period last year, as lower revenue and margin compression weighed on earnings.
Revenue from operations fell 24.1% to Rs 326.1 crore from Rs 429.9 crore a year earlier. EBITDA for the quarter declined 37.8% year-on-year to Rs 118.5 crore, while the EBITDA margin contracted to 36.4% from 44.3% in the year-ago quarter.
Concord share price is down 36% in the last 1 year. (Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

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Oppenheimer reiterates ServiceNow stock rating on AI growth outlook

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Opinion: Nimble approach needed for AI

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