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Pan American Silver: What To Expect In Extreme Market Volatility (NYSE:PAAS)

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Pan American Silver: What To Expect In Extreme Market Volatility (NYSE:PAAS)

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Michael Fitzsimmons is a retired electronics engineer and avid investor. He advises investors to construct a well-diversified portfolio built on a core foundation of a high-quality low-cost S&P500 fund. For investors who can tolerate short-term risks, he advises an over-weight position in the technology sector, which he believes is still in the early stages of a long-term secular bull-market. For dividend income, and as a 4th generation oil & gas man, Fitzsimmons suggests investors consider a position in large O&G companies that provide strong dividend income and dividend growth. Fitzsimmons’ articles on portfolio management recommend a top-down capital allocation approach that is aligned with each individual investor’s personal situation (i.e. age, retired/working, risk tolerance, income, net worth, goals, etc) and might include allocations into investment categories such as the S&P500, technology, dividend income, sector ETFs, growth, speculative growth, gold, and cash.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of PAAS, PSX either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

I am an electronics engineer, not a CFA. The information and data presented in this article were obtained from company documents and/or sources believed to be reliable but have not been independently verified. Therefore, the author cannot guarantee their accuracy. Please do your own research and contact a qualified investment advisor. I am not responsible for the investment decisions you make.

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Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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Travelers Face Delays as Staffing Crisis Hits Peak Season

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People wait in line at an Enterprise rental agency at Miami International Airport in April 2021

MIAMI — Travelers at Miami International Airport encountered unpredictable security lines and mounting frustration in recent weeks as a partial government shutdown strained Transportation Security Administration operations during one of the busiest travel periods of the year.

People wait in line at an Enterprise rental agency at Miami International Airport in April 2021
GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / JOE RAEDLE

Long queues snaked through terminals at MIA and neighboring Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport in March 2026, with some passengers reporting waits of up to 35 minutes or more during morning peaks. The disruptions coincided with spring break crowds, East Coast weather delays and a federal funding impasse that left thousands of TSA workers unpaid and prompted hundreds of call-outs or resignations nationwide.

As of early April 2026, conditions at MIA have largely stabilized. Real-time data from the airport’s official website shows standard security checkpoint waits ranging from 8 to 18 minutes depending on the lane, with TSA PreCheck and CLEAR lanes often clearing in under 5 minutes. Checkpoint 1 remained closed in recent updates, while others operated with fluctuating but manageable volumes. Immigration processing, however, continued to see longer delays, sometimes exceeding 45 minutes.

The partial shutdown, which affected Department of Homeland Security funding, forced many TSA officers to work without pay since mid-February. Union leaders described the situation as “dire,” noting more than 450 officers had quit nationally since the impasse began. Absenteeism spiked, leading airports across the country — including major hubs like Atlanta and Houston — to post waits of an hour or longer on some days. South Florida airports experienced similar volatility, though MIA appeared to fare better than many peers.

Miami-Dade Aviation Department communications director Greg Chin told local media that early morning lines in mid-March occasionally stretched to 18-35 minutes due to staffing shortages. By midday, waits typically dropped significantly. Some checkpoints, such as one near dining options, stayed closed temporarily as managers shifted personnel. Airport officials urged passengers to arrive early and monitor the MyTSA app or MIA’s website for live updates.

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President Donald Trump proposed deploying Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents to assist at congested airports, but MIA and FLL officials confirmed they had not been notified of any such assignments as of late March. Travelers expressed mixed reactions: some appreciated the potential backup, while others worried about added complications at an already busy international gateway.

Spring break 2026 amplified the pressure. MIA handled surges of tourists drawn to South Florida’s beaches and events, with security lines averaging around 30 minutes during peak evening hours in mid-March according to some reports. Officials implemented operational adjustments to improve passenger flow, including better lane management and encouragement of trusted traveler programs.

TSA PreCheck emerged as a key mitigator. Enrolled passengers frequently cleared screening in 1-5 minutes, even during busier periods. In February, the agency expanded TSA PreCheck Touchless ID at MIA, allowing eligible travelers to use facial recognition or mobile boarding passes for even faster processing. The technology rollout is part of a broader initiative to equip dozens more airports with biometric tools aimed at reducing document checks by up to 30%.

Despite the challenges, many recent visitors reported smoother experiences entering April. Reddit users and social media posts from early April described TSA lines at MIA as “surprisingly fast,” with some clearing from curb to concourse in as little as 13 minutes. One traveler called it “the shortest easiest line I’ve ever had at this notorious TSA checkpoint.” Real-time trackers like Flightqueue.com showed standard waits consistently under 15 minutes on multiple days, a notable improvement from March peaks.

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Weather compounded problems earlier in the season. Thunderstorms and winter systems delayed or canceled hundreds of flights regionally, forcing rebookings and adding congestion. Airlines reduced schedules in some cases to ease pressure on air traffic control, which also faced unpaid staff. FlightAware data captured thousands of national disruptions during the height of the crisis.

MIA officials emphasized proactive measures. The airport’s mobile app provides real-time checkpoint wait times, interactive maps and flight status alerts. Passengers can scan boarding passes for personalized guidance. TSA recommends using the MyTSA app to check historical busyness by day and time, review the 3-1-1 liquids rule and prepare for screening to minimize delays.

Travel experts advise arriving at least two to three hours early for domestic flights and longer for international departures, especially during holidays or when staffing issues persist. Enrolling in TSA PreCheck or CLEAR can save significant time for frequent flyers. Removing liquids, electronics and outer layers in advance also speeds the process.

The funding standoff highlighted vulnerabilities in the aviation security system. TSA employs roughly 64,000 officers nationwide, many of whom felt “abandoned” during the unpaid period, according to union statements. Even after resolution, full staffing recovery could take days or weeks as agencies process back pay and rehiring.

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As conditions normalize in April, MIA continues handling millions of passengers annually as South Florida’s primary international gateway. The airport serves major carriers including American Airlines, with extensive connections to Latin America and the Caribbean.

For the latest updates, travelers should check miami-airport.com/tsa-waittimes.asp or the TSA website. Officials continue monitoring operations closely and adjusting staffing as needed.

While the worst of the shutdown-related chaos appears to have eased at MIA, unpredictable variables like weather, holidays and federal budget negotiations mean vigilance remains essential. Passengers who plan ahead — using apps, trusted traveler programs and realistic arrival buffers — report the smoothest journeys through one of the nation’s busiest airports.

In the end, the recent strains at Miami International Airport’s TSA checkpoints served as a reminder of the human element behind airport security. Officers working extended hours without timely pay kept the lines moving as best they could, while millions of travelers adapted with patience and preparation. As federal talks progress, both sides hope to avoid repeating the disruptions that turned routine screenings into headline-making ordeals during spring break 2026.

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Nifty aggregate profit to fall in Q4 but expect a better FY27

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Nifty aggregate profit to fall in Q4 but expect a better FY27
Mumbai: Aggregate net profit of the Nifty 50 companies for the March quarter is likely to dip year-on-year on account of a combination of factors, including one-time gains reported by a few companies in the year-ago quarter and lower expected profit of select banking, pharma and IT companies. According to the ETIG estimates, net profit is expected to fall 1.1% year-on-year in the March 2026 quarter. Revenue is expected to grow 8.3% year-on-year after hitting a 9-10% range in the prior two quarters.

“Indian corporate earnings are expected to be slightly subdued in the March quarter, driven by geopolitical escalations in West Asia and operational challenges for most companies due to a rise in commodity prices,” said Shweta Rajani, associate director, Anand Rathi Wealth. She added that the impact of higher commodity prices is expected to weigh on profitability across sectors including consumption, manufacturing, and industrials where input cost pressures may not be fully passed on.

Nifty Aggregate Profit to Fall in Q4 but Expect a Better FY27Agencies

EARNINGS PREVIEW: One-time gains earlier & lower profit for some cos to weigh on March quarter numbers; Revenue to also moderate

Barring one-off items, the earnings growth for the sample is expected to be in low-to-mid single digit. “We expect earnings of the companies under our coverage to grow 10% year-on-year and Nifty 50 earnings to grow 6% for the March 2026 quarter,” said Gautam Duggad, institutional research head, Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

The ETIG estimates exclude the financials of Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles since the year-ago numbers are not comparable after the company’s commercial vehicles business was split and formed into a separate listed entity.

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The sample’s operating margin is likely to contract by 70 basis points year-on-year to 22.2% for the March quarter. “Higher crude and commodity prices are likely to put pressure on margins across sectors such as consumption, industrials, and manufacturing,” said Rajani. The margin has remained in a range of 22-24% over the past five quarters to December 2025.


On the sector front, sectors including automobiles, banking and financial services, metals are likely to fare better while IT companies, select pharma and consumer durables companies are likely to report subdued numbers.
After a challenging environment in FY26, analysts expect recovery in the current fiscal year. “The earnings trajectory across segments indicates that FY26 is likely to be a year of consolidation, followed by a meaningful recovery in FY27,”said Rajani. She expects 12% earnings growth for Nifty 50 companies in FY27 compared with an estimated 4-6% growth in FY26 based on likelihood of stabilisation in global demand conditions, improving operating leverage and momentum in the capital expenditure cycle. Duggad expects a plethora of policy measures should incrementally prop up earnings growth. “Currently, we estimate over 13% and 11% annualised earnings growth for companies under our coverage and for the Nifty respectively over FY25-27,” he said.

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Short Lines at MCO as Post-Spring Break Travel Eases

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Orlando International Airport

ORLANDO, Fla. — Security lines at Orlando International Airport moved swiftly Tuesday, with TSA wait times averaging under 20 minutes across most checkpoints as the busy 2026 spring break season wound down, airport officials and real-time trackers reported.

Orlando International Airport
Orlando International Airport

As of midday April 7, official displays on the airport’s website showed general security waits of 0-2 minutes at Gates 1-59, Gates 70-129 and the C gates area, though these figures can fluctuate rapidly with passenger volume. Third-party monitors like Takeoff Timer and airlineairport.com placed typical waits between 10-20 minutes during standard hours, rising toward 20-30 minutes in peak morning and afternoon rushes.

The Greater Orlando Aviation Authority advises travelers to arrive at the airport three hours before domestic flights and reach the security checkpoint at least two hours prior to departure. That buffer provides ample cushion even on busier days at one of the nation’s busiest tourist gateways.

Orlando International, known by its code MCO, handled record passenger numbers during the six-week spring break window that concluded around April 7. Officials projected more than 600,000 travelers on some peak weekends in March, with daily counts exceeding 200,000 on the busiest days. Despite the surge, security waits remained manageable compared to past holiday peaks, thanks in part to expanded TSA staffing, technology upgrades and voluntary reservation tools.

MCO features multiple security checkpoints serving its North and South terminals and various gate areas. Travelers bound for Gates 1-59 often encounter slightly longer lines during morning departures, while those heading to Gates 70-129 or the C concourse frequently report shorter waits. TSA PreCheck lanes consistently cut times to near zero for enrolled passengers, who remove shoes, belts and laptops less frequently.

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The airport promotes its free MCO Reserve system, allowing passengers without PreCheck or CLEAR to book a specific security time slot in advance via the MCO app or website. Officials say the tool helps spread out crowds and reduces stress during high-volume periods. The MCO mobile app also delivers live checkpoint updates, flight status and navigation assistance throughout the sprawling facility.

Real-time data from sites such as flightqueue.com, ifly.com and takeofftimer.com showed short waits early Tuesday, with some checkpoints reporting under 10 minutes even as afternoon departures built. Hourly forecasts suggested potential increases to 18-21 minutes in the evening window before tapering overnight. Early morning slots from 5-7 a.m. typically offer the shortest lines at 10-15 minutes, while 7-9 a.m. and 3-6 p.m. see the longest at 20-45 minutes on busier days.

TSA PreCheck enrollment continues to grow at MCO, providing faster screening for millions of frequent travelers. CLEAR biometric lanes offer another expedited option at the entrance to security for those who subscribe. Families, military members and individuals needing assistance can access dedicated lanes where available.

Travelers shared mixed but generally positive experiences on social media and forums in recent weeks. Many reported 15-25 minute waits even during late March peaks, crediting efficient staffing and new lane configurations. Others advised downloading the MyTSA app, which crowd-sources wait times from passengers already at the airport.

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The Transportation Security Administration emphasizes that wait times remain fluid and subject to sudden changes based on flight schedules, weather disruptions or staffing levels. A partial government shutdown earlier in 2026 raised concerns about potential delays at Florida airports, but MCO officials reported no major operational impacts, with TSA PreCheck and Global Entry remaining fully active.

Orlando’s tourism-driven traffic creates unique patterns. International arrivals, particularly from Latin America and Europe, add volume to customs and border processes after security, while domestic leisure travelers dominate departure lines. The airport’s two-terminal design with airside shuttles means passengers must factor in time to reach their gates after clearing security.

Experts recommend several strategies to minimize delays at MCO:

  • Enroll in TSA PreCheck or CLEAR for faster processing.
  • Use the MCO Reserve tool to book a security slot.
  • Pack liquids in a single quart-size bag and remove laptops and large electronics early.
  • Wear slip-on shoes and avoid bulky belts or jewelry.
  • Check the official flymco.com/security page or app immediately before heading to the checkpoint.
  • Consider off-peak flights when possible.

During the height of spring break, some mornings saw waits approach 30-40 minutes at busier checkpoints, prompting the airport to urge extra arrival time. Post-holiday Tuesday traffic appeared lighter, with many families returning home and business travel resuming a steadier pace.

The airport has invested heavily in technology, including advanced imaging systems and automated screening lanes that allow passengers to leave more items in carry-on bags. These upgrades have helped keep average waits competitive with other major hubs despite MCO’s high volume.

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For those connecting through Orlando or arriving on early flights, late-night and overnight security lines often dip below 10 minutes, offering smoother experiences for red-eye travelers.

Parking and ground transportation also factor into planning. MCO offers on-site garages, economy lots and rideshare options, but heavy days can mean longer walks or waits for shuttles. Officials suggest checking the MCO app for real-time parking availability.

As summer travel planning begins, MCO anticipates another busy season with continued growth in both domestic and international routes. Airlines have added flights to meet demand from theme park visitors, beachgoers and convention attendees.

Travelers with questions about prohibited items or screening procedures can consult the TSA website or MyTSA app, which includes a “What Can I Bring?” tool. Remember the 3-1-1 liquids rule: containers of 3.4 ounces or less in a single quart bag.

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While waits at Orlando International remain shorter than nightmare scenarios seen at some congested hubs, preparation remains key. Checking multiple sources — the airport website, MyTSA app and third-party trackers — gives the clearest picture before leaving for the airport.

Airport spokesperson Angela Starke has repeatedly stressed proactive planning. “We want every traveler to have a smooth experience at MCO,” she said in earlier statements during peak periods. “Arriving early, using available tools and following TSA guidelines helps everyone move through security faster.”

On this Tuesday in early April, with spring break crowds thinning, most passengers cleared security without significant hassle. Still, the message from MCO remains consistent: better to build in extra time than risk missing a flight.

For the latest updates, visit flymco.com/security or download the MCO and MyTSA apps. Real-time conditions can shift quickly, especially as afternoon departures increase or if weather affects regional flights.

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Whether heading to a business meeting, family vacation or returning home, knowing current Orlando International Airport TSA wait times helps turn potential stress into a seamless start to the journey.

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Cipher Digital Stock’s $9B Pivot To AI Infrastructure Is Still Undervalued (NASDAQ:CIFR)

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ZTR CEF: Collect A 8.8% Yield While Aligned To Grow Alongside AI Infrastructure (NYSE:ZTR)

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My name is Byte Sized Alpha, and I’m a sophomore at the University of North Carolina at Charlotte. I’ve been actively investing since my freshman year of high school, starting with a small portfolio of tech stocks that quickly turned into an obsession with understanding how markets work and where the next big thing is. My primary focus is on the technology sector, specifically semiconductors, cloud infrastructure, artificial intelligence, and the companies building the out the next decade of innovation. I’m drawn to businesses with exciting new technology, scalable business models, and strong management teams. That said, I don’t limit myself to one corner of the market. I spend a significant amount of time studying macroeconomics, interest rates, and how broader economic cycles impact growth and valuation across sectors. My investing approach blends fundamental analysis with a macro-aware lens. I dig into SEC filings, earnings transcripts, investor presentations, and industry research to build a complete picture before forming a thesis. I look at revenue growth, margin trajectory, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation decisions. I also pay close attention to sentiment and positioning within the fintwit community, which often surfaces ideas and risks that traditional research misses. I started writing because I believe the best way to truly understand an investment is to articulate the thesis clearly, including both the bull and bear case. Writing encourages discipline, and I want to share that process with others who are serious about learning and improving as investors. My goal is to publish well-researched, balanced analysis that helps readers think through opportunities in tech and beyond, whether they agree with my conclusions or not.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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ETMarkets Smart Talk | Financials, IT turn attractive; microfinance seen as turnaround bet: Niraj Kumar

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ETMarkets Smart Talk | Financials, IT turn attractive; microfinance seen as turnaround bet: Niraj Kumar
After a phase of prolonged correction and valuation reset, Indian equities are beginning to offer selective opportunities across sectors.

In an interaction with Kshitij Anand of ETMarkets, Niraj Kumar, Chief Investment Officer at Generali Central Life Insurance, highlighted that financials and IT services have turned attractive from a risk-reward perspective, with several stocks trading at compelling valuations.

He also pointed to microfinance as a key turnaround play, supported by improving credit cycles after a period of stress.

While near-term uncertainties linked to global geopolitics persist, Kumar believes investors with a medium-term horizon can benefit by positioning in sectors with earnings visibility and structural growth tailwinds. Edited Excerpts –

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Q) Thanks for taking the time out. FY26 returns have turned negative due to geopolitical concerns around West Asia. How do you sum up the financial year?

A) FY26 was largely a year of consolidation for the markets. It began on a strong note, with multiple growth stimulants starting to translate into economic activity.
Fiscal measures such as income tax and GST cuts, accommodative monetary policy through repo rate reductions and ample liquidity, and regulatory support including the deferral of ECL and Project Finance guidelines had begun to show tangible impact.

Markets reflected this optimism, with the Nifty rising ~7% and the Midcap Index gaining ~15% till end February.

However, the escalation of the West Asian conflict triggered a sharp risk off phase in March. India’s dependence on energy imports, resulting macro pressures, and relatively lower appeal for global capital—amid slower earnings growth, elevated valuations, and limited AI led narratives—led to a steep correction, with the Nifty declining ~11% in March alone.


That said, broader markets displayed relative resilience. Overall, FY26 concluded on a softer note, with the Nifty down ~5%, while the Nifty Midcap 100 delivered modest positive returns of ~2%.
Looking ahead, history suggests that markets often rebound meaningfully once geopolitical conflicts stabilise. As clarity emerges on the West Asian situation, there is a reasonable case for a sharper recovery, setting the stage for a more constructive and rewarding FY27.Q) As we head towards FY27, what are the key triggers investors should keep in mind for a market reversal or return of bullish sentiment?
A) We remain constructive on FY27. After nearly two years of time and price correction, the risk reward for Indian equities has turned favourable.
While domestic fundamentals were improving and sentiment had strengthened post the Indo US trade agreement, geopolitical developments have temporarily dampened confidence.

The most immediate trigger for a market reversal would be de escalation in the West Asian conflict, particularly a ceasefire or diplomatic resolution between the US and Iran.

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Beyond geopolitics, markets will closely track Q4 earnings and management commentary, especially around the resilience of growth despite recent disruptions. Sectors and companies offering visibility on earnings recovery are likely to be rewarded.

Q) Which sectors should be on investors’ radar for FY27?
A) We advocate a diversified portfolio approach. Financials remain a key focus area—across banks and NBFCs—where concerns around LPG/LNG disruptions impacting growth and asset quality have led to sharp derating.

Several stocks are now trading below COVID era valuation troughs. While near term earnings risks exist, we do not equate the current environment to COVID, and valuations offer a compelling margin of safety with meaningful upside potential.

Within lending, Microfinance stands out as a turnaround opportunity. After an 18 month period of borrower stress driven by excess leverage, the inherently short credit cycle suggests we are closer to recovery.

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We also like non lending financials such as asset managers, brokers, and exchanges, which benefit from strong structural growth themes.

Post the recent correction, we have turned overweight on IT services. Market concerns around AI disruptions overlook the sector’s strong historical record of adapting to technology shifts.

AI led enterprise adoption will require large scale implementation, integration, and customization—areas where IT services companies are indispensable.

Valuations are now attractive, with mid teen multiples and 5–6% free cash flow yields, implying near zero terminal growth assumptions.

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We also remain positive on domestic cyclical sectors including Power and Capital Goods, supported by the energy transition theme, and Materials—particularly Cement and Metals.

Q) How should one approach gold and silver in the new financial year?
A) Gold continues to serve as a strategic hedge against inflation and currency debasement and should remain part of a core portfolio.

However, investors should recognise that gold typically moves in phases—periods of consolidation followed by sharp upswings, often during geopolitical stress.

The recent correction in gold prices appears driven by temporary factors such as weaker Middle East demand and central bank selling to defend currencies amid geopolitical tensions. We view this pullback as an opportunity to rebalance allocations toward gold.

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Silver, on the other hand, is largely an industrial metal. While supply deficits exist, higher prices often lead to demand substitution. Given this dynamic, we do not see silver as a preferred long term portfolio allocation.

Q) How are we positioned against peers in terms of valuations?
A) India continues to trade at a premium to both developed and emerging market peers. The Nifty 50’s valuation premium versus the MSCI EM Index remains around ~40%, slightly below long-term averages.

While this premium has narrowed, global flows have favoured markets such as South Korea, Taiwan, and Brazil, driven by strong AI led or commodity linked earnings growth.

It is important to recognise why India has historically commanded a valuation premium: the longevity of growth driven by favorable demographics and rising discretionary consumption, and the breadth of investible opportunities, with nearly 500 companies exceeding USD 1 billion in market capitalization.

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In contrast, many EM peers have highly concentrated indices. Consequently, while Indian valuations may appear optically expensive, we expect the structural premium to persist.

Q) Will FII flows reverse in FY27? How do you interpret domestic and global flows?

A) Capital flows ultimately follow returns and economic outlook. India’s underperformance versus both developed and emerging market peers over the past few years—driven by high starting valuations, slower earnings growth, and limited AI led drivers—had led to sustained FII outflows.

Importantly, just ahead of the West Asian conflict, foreign flows had begun to improve, reflecting growing comfort on valuations and a nascent recovery in earnings expectations.

The escalation of geopolitical tensions temporarily disrupted this improving trend. However, following the recent correction, the Nifty 50’s 12-month forward PE has moderated to ~17.5x, below its long-term average.

Even under conservative assumptions of flat earnings growth, valuations are now broadly in line with post COVID norms. While near term volatility may persist, the balance of risks has become increasingly favourable.

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As geopolitical conditions stabilise, we believe FII flows could recover sharply, supported by India’s strong structural growth, improving earnings visibility, and attractive valuations. This phase therefore calls for investment managers to proactively position portfolios with a medium-term perspective, recognising that global economies will ultimately need to collaborate to resolve the conflict.

In the interim, strong and resilient domestic liquidity continues to provide a powerful backstop and reinforces confidence in the market’s underlying strength.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)

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Investment scams cost West Australians $13.7m in losses

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Investment scams cost West Australians $13.7m in losses

Investment scams were the leading method used to fleece West Australians in 2025, accounting for $13.7 million in losses.

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Crude above $100: The danger zone for Indian stocks and why the next 2 weeks are critical

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Crude above $100: The danger zone for Indian stocks and why the next 2 weeks are critical
With crude oil sticking above the $100 barrel mark, India’s market resilience faces a countdown. Geojit’s Chief Investment Strategist Dr. V K Vijayakumar warns that while the economy can absorb a temporary shock, a prolonged two-week spike threatens a domino effect on inflation and GDP. As geopolitical tensions simmer, the window for a “painless” recovery is closing, leaving investors on high alert.

Edited excerpts from a chat on market outlook and opportunities:

Crude oil prices have been hovering above $100 a barrel mark. At what level, do you think the India equity story starts becoming meaningfully uncomfortable for investors?
For an oil importer like India, the impact of high oil prices can turn out to be very adverse if the prices remain elevated for an extended period. A 10% increase in crude (estimated roughly at $10) causes about 20 bp reduction in GDP growth, 30 bp increase in CPI inflation and 30 to 40 bp increase in current account deficit.This adverse macro impact will manifest if the crude price remains elevated for long. In the ongoing crisis, the durability of the crisis is significant. If the war ends soon (it can end any time) or if there is significant de-escalation and opening of the Hormuz Strait, crude can immediately fall to $80 level. In such a scenario, the adverse impact will not manifest. Another two weeks of crude above $100 is a temporary shock which the Indian economy can absorb. But beyond that, the economy and markets will be impacted.


Do you think the market is still underpricing the second-order effects of war, especially on inflation expectations, bond yields, and consumer sentiment?
The market is even now discounting a quick end to the war and cooling of oil prices. The market is not discounting a prolonged war and elevated crude oil price for long. Contrary to market expectations, if the conflict escalates and crude rises above $120 and remains at that level for many weeks, the market will further correct from the present levels. Everything boils down to how long the conflict continues, more importantly, how long Hormuz Strait remains restrictive.
How vulnerable is Q4 earnings season to this backdrop? Which sectors do you expect to show the sharpest earnings impact in Q4 from elevated crude and freight costs?
Q4 is unlikely to impact earnings significantly. The impact will be felt in Q1 FY27. However, the war and the consequent uncertainty will show up in some segments. Industries using petroleum inputs like paints, adhesives, and tyres will be hit. Manufacturers using LNG as fuel like verified tiles have been hit hard. Exporters will gain from currency tailwinds. IT will gain; but the Anthropic shock will continue to weigh on the segment. Exporters to the Gulf region will be impacted marginally.

Do you expect another round of earnings downgrades over the next few weeks if oil stays elevated?
If crude remains elevated and gas availability restrictions continue, another round of earnings downgrade will become inevitable. Earnings downgrades will be in import intensive and crude related segments mentioned earlier.

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Has the small cap correction created genuine value, or are pockets of the segment still frothy despite the damage?
Correction in small caps has opened value in many segments. Broadly small cap valuations continue to be high, but there are segments with attractive valuations and high growth prospects. These are across industries and, therefore, stock selection holds the key to successful investment. An ideal strategy would be to invest in small cap mutual funds.

How are you thinking about banks in this setup, especially if higher inflation complicates the rate outlook?
Banking is one segment that is attractively valued now. Sustained selling by FPIs in leading large private sector banks has made the valuations in the segment attractive. This segment is an excellent long-term buy for investors. Credit growth in the economy continues to be good. The MPC is unlikely to increase the interest rates soon since inflation arising from supply shocks cannot be addressed through rate hikes.

Help us understand why PSU bank stocks have been the worst hit and whether one should be brave enough to buy the dip as the growth story looks promising but yields are playing spoilsport?
PSU bank stocks had a good run recently. What we are witnessing now is profit booking in the segment. This segment can be considered selectively for investment.

If the market was to rebound from here, which sectors do you think will lead the rally?
In the event of a sharp bounce back in the market, all beaten down but fundamentally strong stocks will rally smartly. But if FPIs continue to sell the rally, large cap banking names may continue to disappoint despite the strong fundamentals and attractive valuations. IT appears set for a tactical bounce back in April since the Q4 results are unlikely to disappoint. Automobiles and auto ancillaries are on a strong wicket. Telecom will remain resilient. Pharmaceuticals have potential to appreciate.

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Ben Roberts-Smith arrested over alleged war crimes

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Ben Roberts-Smith arrested over alleged war crimes

UPDATED: Former SAS soldier Ben Roberts-Smith has been arrested in relation to a war crimes investigation and is expected to be charged with five counts of murder.

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China targets Taiwan’s chip prowess to evade global ’containment’, Taipei government says

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China targets Taiwan’s chip prowess to evade global ’containment’, Taipei government says


China targets Taiwan’s chip prowess to evade global ’containment’, Taipei government says

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Cardiff Oncology Stock: Market Dismisses Onvansertib’s Potential In Colorectal Cancer

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Cardiff Oncology Stock: Market Dismisses Onvansertib's Potential In Colorectal Cancer

This article was written by

Biologics is a full-time healthcare investor who developed a passion for biotech and life saving therapies after working in the medical field for years. His trade focus is around innovative companies developing breakthrough therapies and/or pharmaceuticals with catalysts for potential acquisitions.
He is the leader of the investing group Compounding Healthcare. Features of the group include: Several model healthcare portfolios, a weekly newsletter, a daily watchlist, and chat for dialogue and questions. Learn more.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of CRDF either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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