The report said the central bank is expected to continue with a data-dependent approach while balancing growth concerns, inflation risks and global uncertainties.

“We may expect status quo on rates as the impact on growth due to the crisis is still difficult to ascertain, and on the inflation front, an increasing trend is imminent,” the report said.

Bank of Baroda also expects the RBI to retain its neutral policy stance, saying it provides the central bank with the flexibility to respond to incoming economic data.

According to the report, several developments have taken place since the RBI’s previous monetary policy meeting.

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It noted that there have been reports of a 60-day extension of the ceasefire in West Asia, although uncertainty surrounding the situation remains high. While international crude oil prices have shown some correction following the development, the report cautioned that volatility in crude prices cannot be ruled out unless a formal peace agreement is reached.
The report highlighted that one of the most significant developments since the last policy meeting has been the increase in petrol and diesel prices. According to Bank of Baroda, the RBI’s inflation projections are likely to reflect the impact of these higher fuel prices.

“We expect the RBI’s CPI projection for FY27 to be revised upward,” the report stated.

The report also pointed to volatility in the Indian rupee as an important development in recent months. However, it noted that exchange rate movements do not directly fall under the scope of monetary policy decisions.

From a growth perspective, the report believes maintaining rates at current levels remains the preferred option at this stage.

It noted that headline consumer price inflation, which remains the RBI’s key policy variable, has not yet fully reflected the impact of higher costs being passed on across the economy.

As a result, the report expects the upcoming policy statement to be relatively more hawkish in tone, particularly through an upward revision in inflation forecasts and a stronger emphasis on near-term inflation risks.

The report concluded that, given the evolving geopolitical situation, inflation concerns and uncertainty around growth, the RBI is likely to wait for more data before making any major changes to interest rates.

Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra is set to announce the outcome of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) three-day meeting on Friday, June 5.

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New research on their impact has been carried out by Oxford Economics on behalf of Allica Bank

Established SMEs in Wales out punch their weight in terms of their contribution to jobs in the Welsh economy, show new research.

A report , carried out by Oxford Economics on behalf of Allica Bank, shows that established businesses account for over two in five jobs in the private sector despite making up just 22.8% of the Wales’ business population.

Established SMEs are firms with between five and 250 employees – of which in Wales there are 23,965.

Their contribution of 44% of all private sector jobs in Wales, is nine percentage points above the UK average of 35%, and significantly higher than London, where established businesses account for 30% of private sector employment. Of the nations and regions of the UK, the rate is only higher in Northern Ireland at 46%

Across the UK, established businesses are a critical driver of economic activity, accounting for more than a third of private sector employment and 37% of private sector turnover. They also support almost one in every two private sector jobs in rural areas.

Given their importance to growth, the report also highlights the challenge many established businesses face in accessing the finance they need to invest. The report highlights a £65bn lending gap to UK SMEs, accumulated over the past 25 years, which is restricting the finance and working capital available to businesses that want to expand, boost productivity and create jobs.

It also shows the impact that can be unlocked when established businesses can access the finance they need. In 2025, Allica Bank’s lending to established businesses enabled an estimated £520m contribution to GDP in Wales and supported 8,700 jobs locally.

UK-wide, 78% of the GDP contribution and 80% of the employment impact supported by Allica Bank’s lending occurred outside London and the south east, underlining the role productive finance can play in supporting local economies.

Conrad Ford, chief product and strategy officer at Allica Bank, said:“I speak to established businesses all the time and you quickly see how important they are to their local areas. These are the manufacturers, logistics firms, hospitality operators and specialist businesses that employ local people, support supply chains and keep communities thriving.

“The report puts numbers behind that. Although established businesses make up a minority of the wider SME business population, they account for around 60% of private sector employment.

“In 2025, Allica Bank’s lending to established businesses enabled an estimated £8.4 billion contribution to GDP in the UK and supported 118,000 jobs across the country. That shows what can happen when established businesses get the finance they need to invest and grow.”

The £6m project was carried out by Swansea-based Andrew Scott

Work on a £6m project repurposing a listed building that served as a library in Brecon into a new learning campus has been completed.

Contractors Andrew Scott carried out the work on the Ship Street Library building on behalf of NPTC Group of Colleges.

The refurbishment and retrofit marks the next chapter in both the building’s history and the college’s development. By relocating a significant portion of its Brecon campus to a central town location, NPTC Group of Colleges aims to improve accessibility for students

The project is also expected to strengthen links with the local community and increase footfall in Brecon town centre. The building has been intentionally designed without canteen facilities to encourage students to make use of town centre amenities and support local businesses.

Designed by Rio Architects, the building now provides ten general teaching classrooms, student support and welfare spaces, staff areas, social learning zones, and four start-up business units, alongside a new lift to improve access.

Mark Bowen, managing director of Swansea-based Andrew Scott, said: “We are delighted to have completed the renovation and enhancement of the grade II listed Ship Street Library.

“This project has provided an opportunity to preserve a much-loved historic building while creating an inspiring and accessible learning environment for students and the wider community. We hope the revitalised space will strengthen local connections, support nearby businesses and inspire the next generation of learners.”

The library was originally designed by the County Architects Department under the direction of county architect JA McRobbie. It was officially opened by the then Prince of Wales in 1969 and is considered a significant example of post-war architecture of national importance.

NPTC Group of Colleges works in partnership with Coleg Sir Gâr, Coleg Ceredigion, Cardiff and Vale College, and Pembrokeshire College to develop higher technical education and employer-led training and innovation.

This is a breaking news story about the ADP national employment report for May. Please check back for updates.

Companies in the private sector added 122,000 jobs in May, payroll processing firm ADP said in its latest report on Wednesday.

The figure is above economists’ estimates of a gain of 117,000 jobs. The prior month’s payrolls number was revised lower to a gain of 105,000 from an initially reported gain of 109,000.

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ADP released data from its May National Employment report on Wednesday. (Amanda Andrade-Rhoades/For The Washington Post via Getty Images)

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The ADP data is released before the Labor Department’s nonfarm payrolls report, which is due on Friday morning and can differ notably. The government data is expected to show an increase of 85,000 positions, below the 115,000 reported in April.

The marine insurance mutual saw premium income grow substantially to $938m (£697.1m)

Conflicts in the Middle East, Persian Gulf and Ukraine are creating a more challenging world for shipowners, one of world’s largest insurers in the sector has said. Tyneside-based NorthStandard says changing tariffs and expansion of sanctions have created uncertainty in the global market.

It comes as the Newcastle-based mutual has published what it called strong results showing a 5.8% lift in premium income to US$938m (£697.1m) in its 2025/26 year with an underwriting deficit reduced from $96m (£71.3m) to $39m (£28.9m). The provider of third party liability and related cover to shipowners and operators also reported $123m (£91.4m) growth in free reserves to $923m (£686.2m).

Writing in the membership group’s annual review, NorthStandard chairman Cesare d’Amico said: “Conflict in the Middle East from Gaza to the Persian Gulf, the continuation of the war in Ukraine, the uncertainty caused by changing tariffs, and the steady expansion of sanctions regimes all combined to undermine predictability in trade, compliance and insurance. Shipowners faced higher costs, greater operational disruption and a more complex liability landscape, often driven by events entirely outside their control.”

It is now three years since the merger of Newcastle’s North P&I and London-based The Standard Club to create NorthStandard, which is one of the top global marine insurance providers with offices in Europe, Asia and the Americas. The firm employs about 300 people on Tyneside.

Bosses said the objectives of that merger had now been met, including development of specialty lines, opening of new offices, expanded resources and new partnerships to benefit members. Since the merger, growing geopolitical instability – notably events in the Strait of Hormuz – has rocked the shipping world, with NorthStandard saying it has provided vast amounts of guidance to members, particularly around war risks.

And on sanctions, the club said it has invested to create a stronger service for members including the appointment of a head of sanctions who operates on a global level from the Newcastle offices.

During the year, NorthStandard also consolidated its Coastal & Inland and Sunderland Marine teams under one leadership, offering a ‘one stop shop’ for small and specialist craft. It also set up an Upstream Energy and Marine & Energy Liabilities team to target those markets.

Jeremy Grose, NorthStandard managing director, said: “The shipping industry is navigating profound change, as technological advancement and the fuel transition reshape how vessels are operated, crewed, and maintained. Our services are evolving in step, ensuring Members can adopt new fuels, technologies, and operating models with confidence.

Fellow managing director, Paul Jennings, added: “People are our biggest strength, and our strong performance is a direct reflection of their dedication—many of whom are based right here at our headquarters in the North East. We remain deeply committed to supporting our communities, economy, and environment through strategic, long-term collaboration and investing in our people and innovation”.