Energy market volatility pressures the Thai Baht due to heavy imports. Thailand’s economy, reliant on stable energy, faces increased costs and vulnerabilities. The USD/THB rate is expected to fluctuate between 36.50 and 37.50, influenced by market conditions and policy responses.

---

Key Points

• Global energy volatility pressures the Thai Baht (THB) due to Thailand’s heavy reliance on energy imports.
• Rising import costs strain the economy, impacting manufacturing and tourism, potentially leading to USD/THB fluctuations between 36.50 and 37.50.
• The Bank of Thailand faces a balancing act between inflation control and growth support amidst these economic vulnerabilities.

Energy Market Volatility’s Impact on the Thai Baht

Commerzbank’s analysis highlights that global energy market volatility, particularly in early 2026, is exerting substantial downward pressure on the Thai Baht (THB). Thailand’s significant reliance on energy imports, primarily crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG), means that rising global energy costs directly worsen its trade balance. This amplified vulnerability is clearly reflected in the USD/THB exchange rate, which has become a key indicator for currency traders closely observing potential policy responses from the Bank of Thailand (BOT). The historical precedent of the 2022 energy crisis, which saw USD/THB surpass 37.00, underscores the Baht’s sensitivity to such price shocks, influencing current market evaluations.

Thailand’s Economic Vulnerabilities and Policy Balancing Act

Thailand’s economy is characterized by significant vulnerabilities, especially within its crucial manufacturing and tourism sectors, which are fundamentally dependent on stable energy prices. Elevated energy costs pose a dual threat: increasing production expenses for businesses and diminishing the disposable income of international tourists. This precarious situation places the Bank of Thailand (BOT) in a challenging position, tasked with balancing inflation control with the imperative to support economic growth. The central bank’s generally hawkish monetary stance is a direct response to these pressures, aiming to manage inflation amidst the macroeconomic impacts of surging energy prices and their potential for further Baht depreciation.

Comparative Performance and Future USD/THB Outlook

In the broader context of Asian foreign exchange markets, while Thailand faces considerable challenges due to its energy import dependence, other nations like India and the Philippines are experiencing similar pressures. However, Thailand’s larger current account exposure amplifies its specific vulnerabilities. Performance metrics indicate that the USD/THB has seen a 4.2% year-to-date increase, largely attributed to the energy import bill, distinguishing it from currencies facing less acute price pressures. As traders meticulously monitor energy market developments and potential policy interventions by the BOT, projections suggest the USD/THB exchange rate will likely fluctuate within the 36.50 to 37.50 range, reflecting the ongoing economic uncertainties.

Other People are Reading

Operator

Good day, everyone and welcome to the Smith & Wesson Brands Fourth Quarter and Full Fiscal 2026 Financial Results Conference Call. This call is being recorded. And at this time, I would like to turn the call over to Kevin Maxwell, Smith & Wesson’s General Counsel, who will give us some information about today’s call.

Kevin Maxwell
Senior VP, General Counsel, Chief Compliance Officer & Secretary

Thank you and good afternoon. Our comments today may contain forward-looking statements. Our use of the words anticipate, project, estimate, expect, intend, believe, and other similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements may also include statements on topics such as our product development, strategies, market share, demand, consumer preferences, inventory conditions for our products, growth opportunities and trends, and industry conditions in general. Forward-looking statements represent our current judgment about the future and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by our statements today.

These risks and uncertainties are described in our SEC filings, which are available on our website, along with a replay of today’s call. We have no obligation to update forward-looking statements.

We reference certain non-GAAP financial results. Reconciliations of GAAP financial measures to non-GAAP financial measures can be found in our SEC filings and in today’s earnings press release, each of which is available on our website. Also, when

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed down by more than 1% on Wednesday, as traders bet that the Federal Reserve‘s next move would be a rate hike after new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh highlighted the need to tame inflation and other policy makers projected ‌rising interest rates ⁠later ⁠this year.

The Fed left rates unchanged as was widely expected but new quarterly projections showed nine central bank officials expect at least one rate hike by the end of 2026. The policy statement removed previous language that had flagged the likelihood for rate cuts this year.

Breaking with past practices by Fed chiefs, Warsh did not submit an interest-rate-path projection as part of quarterly forecasts. He told reporters the central bank would deliver on price stability.

Policymakers had been widely expected to hold interest rates unchanged at the 3.50%-3.75% range as they wrestled with inflation ⁠pressures from ‌the oil-price spike during the Iran war. After the meeting, trader bets that rates would hold steady by year-end had dwindled to 15.7% from 40% on Tuesday, according to CME Group’s ⁠FedWatch tool.

Also Read | US Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged, projects one rate hike for 2026

Expectations for a 25-basis-point rate hike by December were at nearly 38% while the probability for a 50-basis-point hike was nearly 33%. “There was clearly a hawkish tilt to the Fed’s statement and Chair Warsh’s comments at the press conference. The main takeaway, in my opinion, is the Fed’s focus on the commitment to deliver price stability and the commentary about inflation,” said Michael James, managing director and equity sales trader at Rosenblatt Securities.
According to preliminary data, the S&P 500 lost 89.59 points, or 1.19%, to end at 7,421.76 points, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 349.14 points, or ‌1.32%, to 26,027.21. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 499.18 points, or 0.96%, to 51,494.99.
Economic data showed U.S. retail sales increased more than expected in May, with households purchasing more cars and other vehicles even as they paid ⁠higher prices for gasoline.

Stocks had rallied sharply from Thursday through Monday as oil prices fell after President Donald Trump announced a preliminary U.S.-Iran peace deal. Oil prices edged back up on Wednesday after Trump said the agreement with Iran was not final and that the war could resume if he is unsatisfied.

In individual stocks, CME Group slipped after the exchange operator said its CEO, Terry Duffy, will step down on March 1, and transition to the role of executive chairman. Shares of Allbirds soared after the footwear maker-turned-AI company changed its name to Smartbird and appointed former Amazon executive Nadia Carlsten as CEO.

Crude oil prices fell sharply on Wednesday as optimism grew over potential Iranian supply returning to global markets following the US-Iran ceasefire agreement, pushing Brent crude below $80 a barrel and contributing to lower bond yields amid reduced geopolitical risks.

Brent futures dropped more than a third from recent peaks, reflecting expectations of resumed Iranian exports that could ease supply concerns and moderate inflationary pressures. The prospect of additional barrels entering the market added to relief over normalized shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, helping stabilize energy costs for importers worldwide.

Westpac economist Luka Belobrajdic noted the potential scale of Iranian exports. “Iran’s total exports could approach around the equivalent of 2% of global demand,” he said, though he cautioned that sanctions relief would not be immediate and would depend on the durability of peace.

The decline in oil prices also supported a drop in government bond yields. German 10-year yields, the euro zone benchmark, fell for a fifth consecutive day to their lowest since early April, last trading down 1.6 basis points at 2.91%. British yields declined sharply after May inflation held at a 13-month low of 2.8%, while U.S. Treasury yields steadied at 4.43%, down around 23 basis points from a May peak.

The moves came ahead of Kevin Warsh’s debut as Federal Reserve chair, with markets watching closely for signals on monetary policy direction. Traders are assessing how Warsh will balance dovish influences from the administration with market expectations of potential rate adjustments later this year.

Market Sentiment and Sector Reactions

European stock markets showed modest gains as lower energy costs supported manufacturing and consumer sectors. The pan-European STOXX 600 rose 0.1%, hovering near recent records, while Germany’s DAX benefited from relief in energy-sensitive industries. However, BMW shares fell 8% after the automaker slashed its 2026 outlook, citing challenges in China and broader geopolitical impacts.

U.S. stock futures pointed to a rebound in technology shares after recent selling pressure eased. Chipmaker-heavy markets in Asia showed mixed performance, with Tokyo and South Korea advancing modestly despite a negative lead from U.S. semiconductor stocks. Taiwan’s benchmark was capped by a decline in TSMC shares.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan gained 0.4%, with AI-related gains in China offsetting weakness in consumer stocks following soft retail sales data.

The U.S. dollar remained relatively steady, with the euro firming slightly to around $1.16. The yen held near 160.2 against the dollar, supported by intervention risks despite a recent rate hike in Japan.

Gold prices bounced from support levels around $4,000 an ounce, last trading near $4,325, while Bitcoin stabilized above $64,000, recently changing hands just above $65,400.

Warsh’s Fed Debut in Focus

Attention now centers on Kevin Warsh’s first Federal Reserve policy meeting as chair. With no immediate rate change widely expected, focus will shift to his press conference comments, voting record and updated economic projections from committee members.

AFS Group research director Arne Petimezas outlined the cautious outlook. “I don’t have either cuts or hikes on my radar in the next 12 months,” he said. “If Warsh is going to hike, which is where I think the risks are, it will be more than just one hike.”

Sweden’s Riksbank kept rates unchanged but signaled a possible future hike, adding to the global central banking narrative of measured policy adjustments amid evolving inflation and growth dynamics.

Broader Economic Implications

The Iran ceasefire has provided meaningful relief to energy-importing economies, particularly in Europe, where stock markets have lagged U.S. indices this year. Deutsche Bank strategist Maximilian Uleer highlighted potential benefits. “Lower prices could lead to a recovery in manufacturing and consumer sentiment,” he wrote, shifting his preference toward European stocks over U.S. equities.

U.S. inflation reaching a three-year high in May has kept consumer stocks under pressure, but falling oil prices could ease some of those concerns by supporting household spending power and corporate margins.

Strategic oil reserves in the United States remain at their lowest levels since 1983 following the conflict’s impact on supply chains. While the ceasefire offers hope for normalization, full restoration of Iranian exports will take time and depend on diplomatic progress.

Commodity and Currency Dynamics

Oil’s decline reflects both immediate supply optimism and longer-term demand considerations. Analysts caution that any sanctions relief remains subject to verification and could face implementation delays. However, the mere prospect of additional barrels has shifted market sentiment toward greater supply availability.

Currency markets have remained relatively stable, with the dollar holding ground as investors await clearer signals from the Federal Reserve under Warsh’s leadership. The euro’s modest gains reflect improved risk sentiment in Europe, while the yen’s stability underscores ongoing intervention risks from Japanese authorities.

Gold’s recovery from recent lows demonstrates its continued role as a diversification asset, even as safe-haven demand moderates in a lower-risk environment. Bitcoin’s stabilization above key support levels indicates resilience in cryptocurrency markets amid traditional asset movements.

Outlook for Global Markets

As markets digest the latest geopolitical developments, focus shifts toward central bank communications and economic data releases. The Federal Reserve’s next steps under Warsh will be pivotal in setting the tone for global monetary policy, particularly as inflation trends and growth prospects evolve.

European central banks, including the Bank of England, face their own decisions amid cooling inflation pressures. Sweden’s Riksbank’s signal of potential hikes illustrates divergent paths among policymakers responding to local conditions.

Commodity markets will continue monitoring Iranian supply developments closely. Sustained lower oil prices could support global growth while challenging producers, creating varied impacts across regions and sectors.

Equity investors appear cautiously optimistic, with technology shares showing signs of stabilization after recent volatility. Broader indices remain near highs, reflecting confidence in corporate earnings resilience despite shifting macroeconomic conditions.

The coming days will bring further clarity on policy directions and economic indicators. For now, the combination of geopolitical relief and steady monetary policy expectations has created a relatively constructive environment for global markets, though uncertainties around implementation details and longer-term inflation trends warrant continued vigilance from investors.

The dollar strengthened across the board on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve held the benchmark interest rate steady and the Fed‘s statement showed policymakers expect a hike in borrowing costs later this year amid growing concerns about inflation.

While the central bank left the policy rate in the 3.50%-3.75% range, new quarterly projections showed nine Fed officials now anticipate a rate hike by the end of 2026, and an updated policy statement removed language that had been used to flag the likelihood of further reductions in borrowing costs in 2026.

The statement, in an early sign of new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh‘s influence, removed any guidance about future rate moves altogether, with a revised ‌format that simply stated ⁠the rate ⁠decision and reaffirmed the central bank’s intent to keep “ample reserves in the banking system.”

“This Fed decision was short, but not sweet,” Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay in Toronto, said.

“Kevin Warsh moved swiftly to put his stamp on the central bank’s communication strategy by executing a dramatic revision to the official statement, wiping out anything resembling forward guidance and editing out the bulk of the contextual information typically parsed most closely in financial markets.”

The Fed statement showed the outlook for inflation was marked up from 2.7% for the end of 2026 to 3.6%.
“The committee turned sharply hawkish, with the median participant yanking inflation projections much higher – suggesting that officials don’t expect this weekend’s U.S.-Iran deal to result in a serious easing in price pressures – and penciling in at least one hike this ⁠year, marking a ‌stark contrast with the cut previously expected,” Schamotta said. “Markets are taking it on the chin, with yields moving up in line with rate expectations, the dollar advancing against all of its major rivals, and equity markets tumbling,” he said.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback ⁠against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, rose 0.5% to 100.01, the highest in nearly a week. The euro fell 0.5% to $1.1549.

Also Read | Nasdaq, S&P fall over 1% as Fed holds rates; traders raise hike bets
Short-term U.S. interest-rate futures are now pricing in a bigger chance that the Federal Reserve will deliver a rate hike by September than opt to keep rates where they are.

An interim agreement to end the Iran war has pushed oil prices lower and should help ease some inflationary pressure in the months ahead, though the pass-through to consumer energy prices may take time.

Warsh, appointed by President Donald Trump, has suggested he will adopt a different governing approach from his predecessor Jerome Powell, who remains a voting member of the FOMC as a governor.

The dollar showed little reaction to data released on Wednesday showing U.S. retail sales increased more than expected in May.

BOE AND BOJ

The Bank of England meets on Thursday and, ‌as with the Fed, no change in policy is expected, leaving the focus on the tone of policymakers’ commentary.

That commentary could be shaped in part by Wednesday’s UK inflation data, which showed inflation unexpectedly held at 2.8% in May, unchanged from the 13-month low reached in April. Markets currently see one BoE rate hike by ⁠year-end.

Sterling was last down 0.5% at $1.3361.

The yen pared gains from earlier in the session to trade up about 0.05% to 160.385 per dollar, still keeping traders on alert for potential intervention by Japanese authorities to support the persistently weak currency.

The BOJ on Tuesday raised rates to a 31-year high in a landmark step in its policy normalization, signaling readiness to tighten further as it focuses on taming price pressures from the war-induced energy shock. However, policymakers offered few clues on the timing of the next move.

Sweden’s crown weakened after the Riksbank held its policy rate unchanged. The central bank said the Iran war had intensified inflationary pressures, raising the likelihood of a future rate hike, while also noting that underlying inflation remained subdued and economic activity was somewhat below normal.

The Swedish crown was last down 0.8% versus the dollar at 9.4382.

Leading cryptocurrency bitcoin was about flat on the day at $65,834.

The robots, more formally known as autonomous urban delivery vehicles, have started to appear on pavements in a number of cities across the US, plus in the UK, Japan, South Korea and Germany, transporting groceries and fast food, using cameras, sensors and GPS to navigate.

HOUSTON — Cristiano Ronaldo will look to etch his name further into World Cup history when Portugal opens its 2026 campaign against debutant DR Congo on Wednesday at NRG Stadium, with the 41-year-old superstar aiming to become the first player to score in six different tournaments.

Portugal enters the Group K match as one of the favorites to advance, having qualified with an impressive record of 20 goals in six matches. The European side brings a blend of experience and attacking talent, led by Ronaldo, who remains determined to add to his legacy on soccer’s biggest stage. DR Congo, returning to the World Cup for the first time since 1974 when competing as Zaire, faces a formidable challenge but carries the pride of a nation eager to make its mark after navigating a demanding playoff path.

The match kicks off at 5:00 p.m. GMT (6:00 p.m. WAT) in Houston, Texas, where both teams will seek an ideal start in a group that also includes Colombia and Uzbekistan. Portugal’s strong qualifying form has raised expectations, while DR Congo’s qualification through the inter-confederation playoff in Mexico has fueled national optimism despite the long absence from the global finals.

Ronaldo’s pursuit of a goal in his sixth World Cup adds significant narrative weight to the opener. The five-time Ballon d’Or winner has scored in every previous appearance since 2006, and another strike would represent a unique achievement in tournament history. His experience and leadership remain central to Portugal’s ambitions as the team seeks its first World Cup title.

DR Congo coach Sébastien Desabre acknowledged Ronaldo’s threat while expressing confidence in his squad. “Well, I wish him the best — I hope that he scores but not against us,” Desabre said.

Portugal’s Strong Qualifying and Tactical Setup

Portugal secured qualification with authority, demonstrating attacking prowess and defensive solidity. The team has lost only two of its last 15 World Cup group-stage matches, with a strong record against African opponents that includes four wins and one draw since 1986. Coach Roberto Martínez has built a balanced side capable of controlling matches through possession and quick transitions.

Possible starting lineup for Portugal: Costa; Dalot, Dias, Veiga, Mendes; Vitinha, Neves, Fernandes; Conceicao, Cristiano Ronaldo, Leao.

The squad features a mix of veterans and emerging talents, with Bruno Fernandes providing creativity from midfield and young attackers like Rafael Leao offering pace and dynamism. Ronaldo’s positioning and finishing ability will be key, supported by a midfield that can dictate tempo and create opportunities.

Portugal’s focus will be on securing an early lead and managing the game efficiently. A strong start is essential in a group where maximum points could ease progression and build confidence for subsequent fixtures.

DR Congo’s Historic Return and Challenges

DR Congo’s qualification marked a significant milestone, ending a 52-year absence from the World Cup. The team advanced through the playoff tournament in Mexico, defeating Jamaica 1-0 in Guadalajara to earn its place. The squad spent extended time in European training camps due to an Ebola outbreak in the country, using the period to prepare and observe early tournament matches.

Forward Yoane Wissa highlighted the team’s readiness. The wait for their campaign has been long, but the Congolese players are determined to make an impact and continue the positive performances shown by other African teams like Morocco, Ivory Coast, Egypt and Cape Verde.

Possible starting lineup for DR Congo: Mpasi-Nzau; Wan-Bissaka, Mbemba, Tuanzebe, Masuaku; Sadiki, Moutoussamy; Mbuku, Yoane Wissa, Elia; Bakambu.

DR Congo will rely on organization, physicality and counterattacking opportunities. Players like Cédric Bakambu and Yoane Wissa provide attacking threat, while the defense aims to frustrate Portugal’s creative players. The team’s inexperience at this level presents challenges, but their resilience in qualifying suggests potential for competitive performances.

Tactical Outlook and Match Expectations

Portugal is expected to dominate possession and create multiple scoring chances, with Ronaldo serving as the focal point. The team’s width and midfield control should allow them to probe DR Congo’s defense, looking for openings through quick combinations and set-pieces.

DR Congo is likely to adopt a compact shape, absorbing pressure and seeking transitions through pace on the wings. Set-piece defense will be critical, as Portugal has shown strength in dead-ball situations. The humid conditions in Houston could favor the more experienced European side, though both teams have prepared accordingly.

Analysts expect Portugal to secure a positive result, though DR Congo’s motivation and tactical discipline could make the match competitive. A Portugal victory would provide momentum and three points, while a draw or surprise result for DR Congo would represent a historic achievement for the debutants.

Historical Context and Group Significance

This marks the first World Cup meeting between Portugal and DR Congo. Portugal’s best finish remains third place in 1966, while DR Congo’s only previous appearance came in 1974. The expanded 48-team format has created opportunities for nations like DR Congo, increasing diversity and competitiveness in the tournament.

Group K features a mix of established and emerging teams. A strong start for Portugal would ease progression, while DR Congo needs positive results to keep advancement hopes alive. The match carries symbolic importance for African football, with several teams already showing strong performances in the early stages.

Player Spotlights and Key Battles

Ronaldo’s presence dominates pre-match discussion. His leadership and goal-scoring record make him a constant threat, though Portugal’s success depends on collective contribution. Midfielders like Bruno Fernandes and Vitinha will be crucial in linking play and creating chances.

For DR Congo, Yoane Wissa and Cédric Bakambu represent the main attacking threats. Defensive organization led by players like Chancel Mbemba will be essential in containing Portugal’s attack. The midfield battle between experienced Portuguese players and determined Congolese counterparts could decide control of the game’s tempo.

What’s Next for Both Teams

Portugal will aim to build on a positive result with an eye toward advancement and deeper tournament progression. The team’s depth allows for rotation in subsequent matches while maintaining standards. DR Congo faces additional tough fixtures but can take encouragement from competitive moments and use the experience for future development.

The 2026 World Cup has already delivered compelling storylines, with early matches highlighting both established powers and debutants. Portugal’s clash with DR Congo offers an early opportunity for Ronaldo to chase history while DR Congo seeks to make its mark on the global stage.

As kickoff approaches in Houston, anticipation builds for a match blending experience against ambition. Portugal enters as favorites, but football’s unpredictability ensures DR Congo will fight for every opportunity. The result could shape narratives in Group K and contribute to the tournament’s rich tapestry of individual brilliance and national pride.