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UK set to shed 163,000 jobs amid Iran war fallout

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The Item Club forecast that South Wales and the Humber will the hardest hit parts of the UK

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The Strait of Hormuz is at the centre of the conflict between Iran and the US(Image: ISNA/AFP via Getty Images)

Britain is expected to lose 163,000 jobs this year amid the economic woes caused by the Iran war with lower income regions set to be hit hardest, according to a report.

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The Item Club’s latest regional outlook warns that two of the UK’s lowest income regions – South Wales and the Humber – will suffer the most painful jobs market woes in the next year or so because of sharp energy price rises.

They are heavily reliant on manufacturing and construction industries, which Item Club cautions will shed jobs in response to higher costs and supply disruption from the Middle East conflict.

The report is predicting jobs to drop by 5,700 in South Wales and by 2,800 in the Humber over 2026.

READ MORE: Welsh construction sector has reported a fall in workloadsREAD MORE: Welsh firms receiving the King’s Awards for Enterprise

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Tim Lyne, economic adviser to the Item Club, said: “Some of the lowest income regions will feel the biggest effects of the manufacturing and construction sectors reducing headcount in the face of rising energy prices and supply chain disruption.

“While consumers in these areas typically have less rainy-day savings, which will reduce spending in the retail and hospitality sectors.”

Overall it forecasts UK employment will decline by 0.4% this year, equivalent to 163,000 job losses on a net basis.

This will be driven by a pull back in consumer spending, the soaring cost of fuel, energy, materials and ingredients, as well as disruption to shipping.

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The Bank of England warned late last month the rate of UK unemployment could hit 5.6% this year, up from 5.2% currently, in its more gloomy scenario for the impact of the war.

The Item Club said as households rein in discretionary spending in the face of a surge in the cost of living, the retail and hospitality sector will suffer the biggest slowdown across Britain’s major cities.

The independent forecasting group predicts that employment in London will drop by 25,000 this year as its retail and hospitality sector slows, with a 12,500 reduction in Birmingham, 9,800 drop in Leeds and 6,200 decline in Glasgow.

There may be some bright spots, however, with Cambridge set to see employment growth in 2026, while Belfast and Edinburgh are expected to see relatively limited job losses.

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Mr Lyne said: “Across the UK, the jobs market is going to soften, but it’s looking especially fragile in South Wales and the Humber as they’re particularly exposed to manufacturing businesses that are seeing big increases in their costs of materials.

“Resilience will come in places like Cambridge where the tech sector is based.”

The report said that while publicly-funded sectors – such as education, public administration and human health and social work – are expected to hire more jobs over the year, this will not be enough to offset wider losses.

It also warns over a widening gap in living standards across the UK caused by the Iran war.

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Low income areas will see households suffer the steepest hikes in the cost of living, as more of their spending goes on essentials, such as food, fuel and energy bills, which are set to see big price rises.

Households in cities such as Newcastle, Belfast and Birmingham spend as much as 13% of their disposable income on energy and food, compared to less than 9% for an average household in London, according to the report.

This could see these cities left particularly exposed if the Iran war is not resolved soon, the Item Club said.

A UK Government spokesman said: “Recent figures show that there was an improvement in the labour market at the beginning of the year with unemployment falling below 5%, and 332,000 more people in work than a year ago.

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“But we cannot escape the effects of the war in the Middle East which are likely to feed through to prices and employment in the coming months.

“We will do everything we can to support the country through this period, including by slashing energy bills by up to 25% for 10,000 manufacturers.

“Our mission for clean power by 2030 will get us off the rollercoaster of fossil fuel prices, to cut bills for businesses and households for good.”

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Bashar is a financial analyst writing on Seeking Alpha, focused on growth stocks, contrarian setups, and market mispricing. His research looks for companies where consensus is missing a shift in earnings power, competitive positioning, or industry structure. Bashar does not invest personally in the stocks he covers.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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BPCL, HPCL, IOCL shares rally up to 4% as oil prices hit two-month low. What are experts saying?

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BPCL, HPCL, IOCL shares rally up to 4% as oil prices hit two-month low. What are experts saying?
Shares of Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited, Indian Oil Corporation and Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited gained up to 4.5% on Friday after crude oil prices hit a two-month low as the US and Iran moved closer to a peace deal.

HPCL shares gained 3.5% to their day’s high of Rs 379 on the BSE, while IOCL shares rallied 3% to Rs 138 per share. BPCL soared the most, up 4.5% to Rs 295.

US President Donald Trump said a deal with Iran could be reached as early as this weekend. In a post on Truth Social, Trump said he had called off the strikes after discussions with Iran were elevated to the highest levels of the Iranian leadership and received approval. He said key points of a proposed agreement had been approved “in both concept and great detail” by parties including the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Turkey, Pakistan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan and Egypt, among others.

Brent crude futures fell $1.21, or 1.3%, to $89.17 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped $1.23, or 1.4%, to $86.48 a barrel. Brent crude fell nearly 2% at the open to as low as $88.79 per barrel after settling at a two-month low in the previous session. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude traded near $86 a barrel.

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Downstream or oil marketing stocks usually come under pressure when oil prices rise as their input costs increase sharply while their ability to pass these costs on remains limited. These companies buy crude at higher prices, refine it and sell the end products, but pricing is often regulated, restricting full cost pass-through to consumers. As a result, margins get squeezed when product prices do not rise in line with crude.

What are experts saying?

Even if a deal is reached, analysts believe it could take several months for oil shipments through the strait to fully normalise and for damaged energy infrastructure to be repaired.


Last month, Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser warned that disruptions in Hormuz could delay stability in global oil markets until 2027, with nearly 100 million barrels of oil supply per week potentially impacted. Saudi Aramco is the world’s largest oil producer.
Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley said the oil market was in “a race against time,” cautioning that the factors preventing crude prices from rising further may weaken if the Strait of Hormuz remains shut through June.The brokerage added that higher US crude exports and softer demand from China have so far helped prevent a deeper supply shock. However, it warned that an extended closure of Hormuz could tighten global supplies again if disruptions continue beyond what the US and China can comfortably absorb.

Iran has effectively enforced a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz since early March, requiring ships to obtain clearance before passing through the route or risk being targeted. The restrictions were imposed after US and Israeli strikes reportedly killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei along with several senior leaders.

The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world’s most critical oil chokepoints, with roughly 20% of global oil supply moving through the passage before the conflict. Iran’s blockade has sharply reduced crude exports from the Middle East, leading to what has been described as one of the largest supply disruptions in history.

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(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

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Bangkok and Tokyo Launch Joint Tourism Campaign

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Bangkok and Tokyo Launch Joint Tourism Campaign

Bangkok and Tokyo are enhancing tourism cooperation with a reciprocal campaign showcasing attractions across major transit networks, aiming to boost tourism awareness and strengthen ties between the two capitals.


Key Points

  • Bangkok and Tokyo are enhancing collaboration through a mutual tourism promotion campaign, leveraging public transportation and digital platforms to raise awareness and strengthen ties between the two cities.
  • Bangkok’s campaign will run in Tokyo during early June, featuring attractions in high-traffic areas like Shimbashi and Shinjuku stations, as well as on Toei Subway trains.
  • Concurrently, Tokyo’s promotions in Bangkok are displayed on BTS Skytrain LED screens and Smart Bus Shelters, increasing exposure to both cities’ tourism offerings, facilitated by a partnership between the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration and the Tokyo Metropolitan Government.

Bangkok and Tokyo are expanding cooperation through a reciprocal tourism promotion campaign that showcases both cities across major public transportation networks and digital advertising platforms. The project is expected to help increase tourism awareness while encouraging closer ties between the two Asian capitals.

Throughout the first half of June, Bangkok’s tourism campaign is being displayed at several high-traffic locations in Tokyo, including Shimbashi, Hibiya, and Shinjuku stations, as well as on advertising media inside Toei Subway trains. The campaign introduces Tokyo residents and visitors to attractions and experiences available in the Thai capital.

Tokyo’s tourism campaign is, at the same time, being promoted across Bangkok through BTS Skytrain pillar LED displays, more than 100 Smart Bus Shelter screens, BMA Q screens at all 50 district offices, and the city’s official social media channels. The campaign gives Bangkok residents and visitors greater exposure to Tokyo’s tourism offerings.

The exchange is being conducted through a partnership between the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration and the Tokyo Metropolitan Government, showcasing the distinct identities of both cities while promoting tourism and expanding cooperation between Bangkok and Tokyo.

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Source : Bangkok and Tokyo Launch Joint Tourism Campaign

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Oil extends losses as Trump calls off planned strikes on Iran

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