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Why the capital cycle approach is a powerful framework for long-term investing

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Why the capital cycle approach is a powerful framework for long-term investing
For decades, investors have relied on forecasts of economic growth, consumer demand and corporate earnings to identify winning investments. However, renowned financial historian and investment strategist Edward Chancellor argues that a far more reliable way to generate long-term returns is by studying the capital cycle—an approach that focuses on the supply side of an industry rather than attempting to predict demand. According to Chancellor, understanding how capital enters and exits industries can help investors identify opportunities that the broader market often overlooks.

In his book, “Capital Returns“, Edward Chancellor explains the investment philosophy employed by Marathon Asset Management in London between 2002 and 2015. The book advocates the capital cycle approach, arguing that investors can achieve superior long-term returns by focusing on industry supply dynamics and capital allocation rather than relying solely on demand forecasts.

Looking Beyond Demand

Traditional investing tends to revolve around estimating future demand. Investors spend significant time predicting sales growth, consumer spending patterns and economic trends. Chancellor believes this approach has limitations because demand is notoriously difficult to forecast with precision.

Instead, the capital cycle approach shifts attention to supply. It examines how much capital companies are investing, whether industry capacity is expanding or shrinking, and how these changes are likely to affect future profitability. Since supply trends are generally easier to observe than demand, they can offer a stronger foundation for long-term investment decisions.

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How the Capital Cycle Works

Every industry experiences periods of expansion and contraction.

When companies earn high profits, they attract competitors and fresh investment. Existing firms increase capacity while new entrants join the industry. Over time, this excess investment creates oversupply, intensifies competition and puts pressure on prices and profit margins.

As profitability declines, weaker players exit the market, investment slows and industry capacity contracts. Reduced supply eventually restores pricing power and profitability, setting the stage for a new cycle of growth.


Investors who can identify these turning points before the broader market has an opportunity to benefit from improving fundamentals and attractive valuations.

Why Markets Often Miss the Cycle

Chancellor believes markets frequently fail to recognize changes in the capital cycle because investors focus excessively on short-term developments. Quarterly earnings, macroeconomic headlines and demand forecasts often dominate investment decisions, while structural changes in industry supply receive far less attention.
This creates opportunities for patient investors who are willing to look beyond near-term uncertainty and study how capital allocation is reshaping an industry’s competitive landscape.

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Behavioural Biases That Influence Investors

The capital cycle approach also explains why investors repeatedly make similar mistakes.One common error is competition neglect, where investors underestimate how increased investment across an industry will eventually reduce profitability.

Another is base-rate neglect, where market participants focus only on current conditions without considering how past investment decisions continue to influence today’s returns.

Chancellor also points to narrow framing, where investors analyse companies in isolation instead of comparing them with similar situations across industries or history. Finally, extrapolation bias causes investors to assume current trends will continue indefinitely, even though business cycles are inherently cyclical.

Characteristics of Attractive Capital Cycle Opportunities

According to Chancellor, the most attractive opportunities are often found in industries where capacity growth has slowed, competition has become more disciplined and supply conditions are improving.

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Industries with a limited number of rational competitors, high barriers to entry, sensible capital allocation and pricing discipline tend to generate superior long-term returns. Conversely, sectors experiencing aggressive capacity expansion or irrational competition often see profitability deteriorate over time.

The Importance of Management

A company’s management plays a crucial role in the capital cycle.

Strong management teams allocate capital prudently rather than pursuing growth for its own sake. Investors should evaluate how companies approach capital expenditure, research and development, acquisitions, debt management, share buybacks and equity issuance. Businesses that allocate capital efficiently are generally better positioned to create sustainable shareholder value throughout the cycle.

Why Long-Term Investors Have an Edge

One of Chancellor’s central arguments is that long-term investing works because there is less competition for information that remains valuable over many years.

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While most market participants concentrate on quarterly earnings and short-term news, long-term investors can benefit by studying structural industry trends, capital allocation decisions and changes in supply dynamics. These insights often have a much longer shelf life and can produce superior returns over an extended investment horizon.

Key Takeaways for Investors

The capital cycle approach reminds investors that profitability is determined not only by demand but also by how much capital an industry attracts. Excess investment eventually destroys returns, while disciplined investment and shrinking capacity often lay the foundation for future profitability.

Rather than chasing popular sectors during periods of peak optimism, long-term investors should monitor supply trends, management quality and capital allocation decisions. By identifying industries where the capital cycle is turning in favour of stronger returns, investors can position themselves ahead of the market and improve the odds of generating sustainable long-term wealth.

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A Dire Situation

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A Dire Situation

A Dire Situation

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Saudi Arabia stocks higher at close of trade; Tadawul All Share up 1.10%

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Saudi Arabia stocks higher at close of trade; Tadawul All Share up 1.10%

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Mamdani Unveils 30% Discount Plan for NYC’s New City-Owned Grocery Stores Amid Fierce Industry Backlash

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New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani

New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani unveiled detailed pricing plans this week for his signature policy of city-owned grocery stores, announcing that a core basket of essential foods will sell for 30% below typical retail prices, a move that has drawn sharp criticism from grocers who say it unfairly threatens their businesses.

Speaking in Brooklyn, Mamdani said the discount will apply to a defined set of staples including all fresh produce, meat, seafood, bread, milk and pasta. “Once a month, our five city run grocery stores will set prices for this core set of goods at 30% below typical retail prices. No exceptions, no gimmicks,” Mamdani said. “The savings will last for the entire month. That means no weekly fluctuations nor sticker shock at the checkout line.” The mayor’s office said the discounts could save shoppers roughly $90 a month, or approximately $1,000 a year.

Mamdani said he settled on the 30% discount figure because food prices have risen by roughly that amount since 2019. The plan, known officially as N.Y.C. Groceries, calls for one municipal store in each of the city’s five boroughs, with a network the mayor’s office describes as a “first-of-its-kind model” among major U.S. cities. Rather than being run directly by city employees, the stores will be operated day-to-day by private grocery firms selected through a request for proposals process the city has issued, with the city setting overall standards, pricing requirements and store design.

The first store is expected to open by the end of 2027 in Hunts Point, in the South Bronx, a neighborhood the mayor’s office said has among the highest rates of food insecurity in the city, with 77% of households reportedly struggling to afford basic necessities. A second location is planned for La Marqueta, a historic public market in East Harlem, with an expected opening by 2029. All five stores are slated to be operating by the end of Mamdani’s first term. The city has allocated $70 million in capital funding for the project, including $30 million specifically for the ground-up construction of the East Harlem location.

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Mamdani framed the initiative as central to his broader affordability agenda. “In the wealthiest city in the richest country in the world, no one should have to wonder how they’ll afford the food they need to feed themselves or their families,” Mamdani said. In a separate statement issued by his office, Mamdani added, “Every week, New Yorkers walk into a grocery store hoping the prices haven’t gone up again. A trip to the grocery store shouldn’t spell dread for New Yorkers.”

The stores will be able to offer lower prices in part because they will not need to turn a profit and will not face the same rent and operating costs that private grocers absorb. Mamdani has said the stores will not sell items such as cigarettes or alcohol, a decision he described as intended to avoid direct competition with local bodegas on those specific products.

The plan has drawn strong opposition from the grocery industry. Antonio Pena, president of the National Supermarket Association, which represents roughly 450 stores across New York City, said the initiative threatens grocers already operating on thin margins. “To have the city decide to open a store in the same neighborhood in which our members are operating at already low margins — because running a store in the city is very expensive, extremely expensive — we feel that it’s a big slap in the face to us,” Pena said. Jason Ferraira, a board member of the same association, which has separately been described as representing more than 700 stores across New York and the East Coast, criticized the city’s broader track record managing public services. He argued the city has “a poor track record” running public housing, hospitals and schools, and predicted the grocery initiative would “likely fail miserably.” Ferraira added that competition and choice matter to residents. “New Yorkers enjoy having options,” he said.

Critics have also raised broader economic concerns beyond the direct impact on individual grocers. Economists cited in coverage of the plan have warned that if enough bodegas and independent grocers are forced out of business by the subsidized competition, remaining stores could eventually raise prices to cope with reduced competition and higher operating costs, potentially offsetting some of the intended savings for consumers over the long run. Others have pointed to the city’s history with earlier municipal market experiments, including markets built under former Mayor Fiorello La Guardia in the 1930s, though those markets rented space to private vendors who remained subject to normal market pressures, differing structurally from the city-run model Mamdani has proposed.

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The grocery store initiative follows a separate, related policy Mamdani has pursued this year to freeze rents on regulated apartments, part of a broader political platform built around addressing the rising cost of living in New York City. Grocery prices in the city have climbed sharply in recent years, with New York now ranked as the second most expensive city in the contiguous United States for grocery shopping, trailing only San Francisco, according to industry data cited in coverage of the plan.

With the city now formally soliciting proposals from private grocery operators to run the five planned stores, and construction still years away from completion at most sites, the ultimate success or failure of Mamdani’s city-owned grocery experiment is likely to remain a subject of ongoing debate among economists, grocery industry representatives and city officials well before any of the five stores fully open to the public.

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Top 25 High-Growth Dividend Stocks For August 2026

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Top 25 High-Growth Dividend Stocks For August 2026

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I have a masters degree in Analytics from Northwestern University and a bachelors degree in Accounting. I have worked in the investment arena for over 10 years starting as an analyst and working my way up to a management role. Dividend investing is a personal hobby and I look forward to sharing my thoughts with the Seeking Alpha community.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of NVDA, MSCI, WING, ROL, INTU, ZTS, MA, KLAC, BR, ODFL, MSFT, DPZ, APH, V, BMI, COST, MPWR, LLY, CTAS, MRSH, ACN, TJX, MCO either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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Rentokil And Rollins: Revisiting The Quality And Valuation Gap After Earnings (NYSE:RTO)

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Rentokil And Rollins: Revisiting The Quality And Valuation Gap After Earnings (NYSE:RTO)

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Tired of effortful investing strategies with uncertain prospects? As a former deep value investor, I learned to appreciate the benefits of a dividend-focused value strategy several years ago. My strategy puts an emphasis on capital preservation and steadily growing income.I write primarily about stocks I hold in my diversified dividend stock portfolio, which emphasizes high-quality value stocks that offer meaningful growth and long-term safety.Feel free to reach out to me via direct messaging here, on Twitter, or through the comments section of one of my articles.Hit the “Follow” button if you’d like to join me on my journey to financial independence.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Disclaimer: The contents of this article, my previous articles, and my comments are for informational purposes only and may not be considered investment and/or tax advice. I am a private investor from Europe and share my investing journey here on Seeking Alpha. I am neither a licensed investment advisor nor a licensed tax advisor. Furthermore, I am not an expert on taxes and related laws—neither in relation to the U.S. nor other geographies/jurisdictions. It is not my intention to give financial and/or tax advice, and I am in no way qualified to do so. Although I do my best to make sure that what I write is accurate and well-researched, I cannot be held responsible and accept no liability whatsoever for any errors, omissions, or consequences resulting from the enclosed information. The writing reflects my personal opinion at the time of writing. If you intend to invest in the stocks or other investment vehicles mentioned in this article—or in any investment vehicle generally—please consult your licensed investment advisor. If uncertain about tax-related implications, please consult your licensed tax advisor.

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Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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Australia’s home price retreat gathers pace in July, Cotality data shows

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SELLAS Life Sciences: The Ownership Structure Has Changed Before The Defining Catalyst

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SELLAS Life Sciences: The Ownership Structure Has Changed Before The Defining Catalyst

I am an independent investor with more than 15 years of experience researching public companies, with a primary focus on identifying misunderstood businesses where the market’s short-term narrative differs from long-term fundamentals. Before concentrating on biotechnology, I was a long-term investor in Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD) during its multi-year turnaround and Maxar Technologies (NYSE: MAXR) prior to its acquisition. Those investments reinforced my conviction that meaningful returns often come from understanding the underlying business, competitive positioning, and long-term catalysts rather than reacting to short-term market sentiment. Over the past seven years, my research has become increasingly focused on small- and micro-cap biotechnology companies, particularly those developing novel therapies for oncology and hematologic malignancies. My investment process centers on fundamental research, including SEC filings, ClinicalTrials.gov records, FDA regulatory pathways, peer-reviewed scientific literature, conference presentations, and corporate communications. I also seek to understand clinical trial design, survival statistics, regulatory strategy, and the competitive landscape surrounding emerging therapies. One company I have followed extensively is SELLAS Life Sciences, where I have been a shareholder for more than seven years. My research has included reviewing publicly available regulatory filings, analyzing clinical trial developments, engaging with management through shareholder communications, and participating in discussions with independent AML specialists to better understand the evolving treatment landscape. While SELLAS has become one of my deepest research projects, my broader interests include immunotherapy, precision medicine, targeted oncology, and event-driven biotechnology investing. Professionally, I am the founder and owner of Mobilize Cloud, a digital consulting and software development firm based in Ohio. My career in technology has been built around solving complex problems, analyzing data, and developing practical solutions for businesses. Those same analytical skills have naturally shaped my investment philosophy: question assumptions, rely on primary sources whenever possible, and distinguish evidence from narrative. I do not claim to predict clinical trial outcomes or possess information beyond what is publicly available. Instead, my goal is to synthesize complex scientific, regulatory, and financial information into clear, well-supported research that helps investors better understand both the opportunities and the risks associated with innovative biotechnology companies. Through my writing, I hope to encourage thoughtful, evidence-based discussion around biotechnology and other sectors where deep research can uncover opportunities that may not be fully reflected in prevailing market sentiment. Whether the topic is biotechnology, technology turnarounds, or other event-driven investments, my objective is to help readers evaluate the facts, challenge conventional assumptions, and make more informed investment decisions.

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Capital Power: Picking Up Stock After A Dividend Hike (TSX:CPX:CA)

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Capital Power: Picking Up Stock After A Dividend Hike (TSX:CPX:CA)

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The Investment Doctor is a financial writer, highlighting European small-caps with a 5-7 year investment horizon. He strongly believes a portfolio should consist of a mixture of dividend and growth stocks.
He is the leader of the investment group European Small Cap Ideas which offers exclusive access to actionable research on appealing Europe-focused investment opportunities not found elsewhere. The a focus is on high-quality ideas in the small-cap space, with emphasis on capital gains and dividend income for continuous cash flow. Features include: two model portfolios – the European Small Cap Ideas portfolio and the European REIT Portfolio, weekly updates, educational content to learn more about the European investing opportunities, and an active chat room to discuss the latest developments of the portfolio holdings. Learn more.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of CPX:CA either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

I have also written some out of the money put options and I intend to write more put options.

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Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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Death toll from migrant rush into Ceuta rises to 72

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Death toll from migrant rush into Ceuta rises to 72

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SPYI: Stop Looking At The Yield, The Real Opportunity Is Volatility

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SPYI: Stop Looking At The Yield, The Real Opportunity Is Volatility

SPYI: Stop Looking At The Yield, The Real Opportunity Is Volatility

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