Crypto World
A crypto betting platform may have leaked U.S. military secrets before a surprise attack on Iran, experts warn
An in-depth investigation into insider trading by Bubblemaps analysts reveal how accurate bets on U.S. attacks on Iran were, exposing a trend that experts fear poses immense risks to the United States’ national security.
In an interview with CoinDesk, Nicolas Vaiman, Bubblemaps co-founder and CEO, expressed deep concern over the national security implications of this new alleged wave of insider trading. He warned that if those observing the predictions markets can spot irregular trades, so can enemies of the United States.
“The issue here is they can make war plans accordingly,” Vaiman said. “Just to put it bluntly, this could potentially expose the lives of many people.”
Vaiman said U.S. adversaries could easily spot the insider trading patterns and use that information to plan their own military strategies.
Luck alone cannot explain the accuracy
The warnings come as he and his team uncovered 80 bets on Polymarket that were so accurate that “luck alone cannot explain” the numbers.
Driven by geopolitical tensions, bets on military plans and outcomes have skyrocketed, with more than $1 billion alone this year. The ability to wager on global conflict creates an entirely new category of insider trading.
Onchain data showed that several major, high-conviction bets were placed days before the Feb. 28 surprise attacks on Iran, the removal of its supreme leader and the announcement of a ceasefire.
According to Bubblemaps, nine accounts connected to Polymarket made more $2.4 million betting almost exclusively on U.S. military operations.
“They just didn’t bet on U.S. strikes days before they took place, but across multiplate later dates to maximize profit,” Vaiman said. They also placed smaller losing bets on Feb. 20, likely attempting to avoid attention.

A 98% win-rate is hard to miss
However, executing dozens of bets with a 98% win rate is hard to miss. “During the Iran strikes, civilians were reportedly checking Polymarket to decide whether they should sleep in bunkers or not,” Vaiman added. “So yes, governments and potential enemies are probably watching that closely.”
When asked if he had any indication those insider traders were connected to the U.S. government, Vaiman responded “we have no proof these are military insiders or even Americans.” He said, “the data is suspicious and may indicate someone with an unfair informational advantage.”
Rep. Mike Levin recently said on X that the “insider trading problem with prediction markets is bigger than any of us could have known,” which is why he and Senator Adam Schiff introduced the DEATH BETS act to ban contracts on war.
One insider trading arrest has been made. A U.S. army green beret, Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke, made $400,000 on Polymarket bets he placed on the Venezuela raid to extract President Nicolas Maduro in which he participated. Later that month, a study found that only 3% of “informed” traders drove accuracy, while 97% did not.
Bubblemaps first made their investigation public on May 18 via a series of X posts, in which they share graphics and images as evidence that confirms the statistically impossible accuracy of the timing on each of the bets.
Two weeks prior to its findings, Polymarket announced a partnership with Chainalysis to bring Wall Street-grade supervision to its platform, in a clear signal by the prediction markets provider that it is serious about clamping down on insider trading and market manipulation.

Potential for manipulation
According to Vaiman, all this brings up other questions and concerns, such as the potential for prediction markets to be manipulated.
“A government could intentionally place bets to create a false signal and mislead adversaries into thinking something is about to happen,” he said. “Prediction markets are intelligence and information warfare tools.”
He also noted prediction markets do not just predict the future, “they can change it.” He mentioned cases where journalists faced extortion threats from bettors trying to protect their financial positions.
On the other hand, Vaiman defended Polymarket’s structural design and the transparency it provides, while refusing to blame the platform for the compliance failures.
“I don’t want to dunk on Polymarket,” Vaiman stated. “Realistically, anybody can use a cheap VPN or buy a KYC’d account. That is not just a Polymarket problem. It is an internet-wide problem.”
Polymarket did not immediately respond to CoinDesk’s request to comment. However, has hit back at insider trading claims in the past, saying that it has strict insider trading rules, AI-powered surveillance and blockchain forensics to identify suspicious activity and report it to relevant authorities. ”Insider trading is not welcome on Polymarket, and those who attempt it will be identified,” the platform has said.
Crypto World
EF Exodus Fuels Calls for New Price-Focused Ethereum Organization

A wave of departures from the Ethereum Foundation has intensified calls from community leaders for a new, well-funded organization built around boosting ETH's price, a mission critics say the nonprofit was never designed to pursue. At least eight senior EF researchers and leaders have announced… Read the full story at The Defiant
Crypto World
SEC ‘Crypto Mom’ Hester Peirce to Depart: What Her November Exit Means
The most reliably pro-innovation and crypto voice inside the SEC is leaving, and the unfinished regulatory agenda she leaves behind is longer than most observers want to admit.
Stablecoin rules remain unwritten. Tokenization frameworks are still in roundtable phase. Exchange registration requirements for digital assets have no clear statutory home.
The commission that must resolve all of it will do so without the commissioner who spent eight years insisting those questions deserved answers instead of subpoenas.
Hester Peirce, known across the industry as “Crypto Mom”, will join Regent University School of Law as an associate professor in November 2026, closing a tenure at the SEC that began in January 2018.
Virginia-based Regent University announced the appointment on May 19, alongside the hire of former Solicitor of Labor Gregory F. Jacob.
Peirce publicly signaled in March 2025 that she would not seek another nomination after her second five-year term expired in June 2025; she has served in a holdover capacity since. Her November start date at Regent aligns precisely with that exit plan.
Discover: The best crypto to diversify your portfolio with
Peirce’s Regulatory Record: How Eight Years of Dissent Shaped the SEC Crypto Posture, and What “Regulation by Enforcement” Actually Cost the Industry
The mechanism here is worth understanding precisely. Under former chair Gary Gensler, the SEC did not publish rules governing token offerings, DeFi protocols, or crypto exchange registration.
It pursued enforcement actions instead, a pattern Peirce explicitly named as regulation by enforcement and criticized in dissents dating back to 2020.
Her objection was structural, not political: enforcement actions create case-specific legal outcomes, not the durable, industry-wide guidance that allows compliance at scale.
Peirce dissented in multiple high-profile crypto enforcement matters, including the 2021 DeFi Money Market settlement, arguing that some targeted projects “were not frauds but failed experiments” and that the commission’s approach “imposes significant costs and creates uncertainty.”

She also championed a token safe harbor giving development teams up to 3 years to reach network decentralization before securities registration applied, a proposal the full commission never adopted but that market lawyers used as a reference framework for structuring token launches.
Her dissenting record on spot Bitcoin ETFs is arguably her most consequential legacy. For years, Peirce publicly criticized the SEC’s repeated refusals, calling the agency’s posture “a paternalistic and lazy approach to innovation.”
The 2024 approvals, which she framed as “long overdue”, are widely credited in part to the legal and political pressure her sustained dissents created. That is the practical import of an internal dissenter with a consistent, documented record: the dissents become the roadmap that outside counsel and courts eventually follow.
Most recently, Peirce led the SEC‘s Crypto Task Force, launched in January 2025, which has held public roundtables, rescinded prior bank custody guidance, and added named industry members to advise on tokenization frameworks and exchange rules. The task force represents the institutional architecture she built in her final period, and it will now operate without her.
Discover: The best pre-launch token sales
The post SEC ‘Crypto Mom’ Hester Peirce to Depart: What Her November Exit Means appeared first on Cryptonews.
Crypto World
Securitize plans SPAC merger to go public and scale tokenization
Asset tokenization platform Securitize is moving ahead with a SPAC merger on Nasdaq, aiming to accelerate its expansion beyond stablecoins into a broader universe of tokenized securities.
Summary
- Securitize plans to go public via a merger with Nasdaq-listed SPAC Cantor Equity Partners II (CEPT)
- CEO Carlos Domingo says the company is already profitable in asset tokenization
- The firm wants to use its public listing to issue and trade more tokenized assets beyond stablecoins
Securitize’s efforts to “tokenize the world” just took an added-value turn, with the company doubling down on efforts to assemble on-chain securities infrastructure operational at scale.
The company is advancing a business combination with Cantor Equity Partners II, a Nasdaq-listed special purpose acquisition company sponsored by an affiliate of Cantor Fitzgerald and trading under the ticker CEPT.
The deal, first announced in late 2025, would see Securitize become a publicly traded company on Nasdaq under the ticker SECZ once the merger closes, but recently the company has described in greater detail how exactly that would play out.
Over a recent investor call, Securitize co-founder and CEO Carlos Domingo said the company has already reached profitability in the asset tokenization business, driven by partnerships with large financial institutions. Therein, Domingo emphasized that Securitize intends to use the SPAC transaction to “accelerate,” in what he called the desire to create expand the fund’s mission align more closely with their core vision.
The issue looking ahead seems to be how to trade more assets in tokenized form beyond the stablecoin and money market fund products that have dominated the early wave of tokenization, Domingo noted.
SPAC structure and listing roadmap, how does it function?
Under the merger agreement, Cantor Equity Partners II will combine with Securitize at a pre‑money valuation of around $1.25 billion, according to earlier coverage by CNBC and Securitize’s own press materials.

The transaction is expected to deliver up to roughly $465 million in gross proceeds if there are no redemptions, Domingo noted in the recent investor call, including about $240 million from the SPAC’s trust and $225 million from private investment in public equity (PIPE) commitments from investors such as Borderless Capital and Hanwha Investment.
In January 2026, Securitize Holdings, Inc.—the post‑merger “Pubco”—publicly filed a Form S‑4 registration statement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, formalizing the deal and detailing the combined company’s projected financials.
The filing notes that Securitize expects to be debt‑free on a pro forma basis post‑merger and is projecting around $110 million in revenue and $24 million in net income for 2026, according to an earlier X post from Domingo summarizing the investor deck.
Completion of the SPAC transaction still hinges on customary closing conditions, including SEC clearance of the S‑4, shareholder approval from CEPT investors, and satisfaction of Nasdaq listing requirements. Until those boxes are ticked, Securitize remains private, though it is already positioning itself as a de facto public‑market candidate in the tokenization sector.
Expanding beyond stablecoins into tokenized securities, how can Securitize buld it?
Securitize has built its reputation on tokenizing real‑world assets particularly private market securities and funds rather than on issuing generic utility tokens.
The company acts as a registered transfer agent and digital asset securities platform, and it has been a key infrastructure provider for high‑profile tokenization deals, including BlackRock’s BUIDL tokenized money market fund and KKR’s tokenized feeder funds.
Domingo has argued that tokenization’s real value lies in “upgrading” traditional assets to programmable, blockchain‑native formats that can improve access, fractional ownership, and secondary market liquidity.
During that same recent interview, he framed the SPAC listing as both a capital raise and a signaling device, saying that becoming a public company while simultaneously tokenizing its own equity on chain demonstrates how Securitize intends to operate at the intersection of traditional capital markets and on‑chain finance.
The firm’s strategy is explicitly broader than stablecoins. While stablecoins and tokenized treasuries have proven highly profitable for issuers, Securitize is betting that everything from private credit and equity to real estate and funds will eventually be issued and traded as digital tokens, and it wants to become the default stack for that transition.
What the SPAC means for tokenization
If the CEPT deal closes, Securitize would become one of the first large, pure‑play tokenization platforms listed on a major U.S. exchange, joining a small group of blockchain‑native firms that have used SPACs to reach public markets.
For that broader tokenization narrative to work, a successful listing with real revenue and profitability would be a significant proof of concept that on‑chain securities infrastructure can sustain a public‑company balance sheet.
It would also give public‑market investors a direct way to express a view on asset tokenization as a theme, rather than just buying tokenized funds or blockchain equities indirectly exposed to the space.
In parallel with other developments, such as Börse Stuttgart’s Seturion platform and a16z’s thesis that finance is undergoing a “cloud‑style” migration to on‑chain infrastructure, it seems that Securitize’s planned SPAC listing underscores that tokenization is no longer a thought experiment but a capital‑intensive, institutional business trying to scale.
Crypto World
Pump.fun Launches USDC-Paired Liquidity Pools for Token Launches

Pump.fun, a Solana-based token launch platform, has introduced USDC-paired liquidity pools as an alternative to its existing SOL-paired bonding curve mechanism. The move comes as SOL price changes pushed bonding curves to their limits, with starting market caps dropping to approximately $2,000 and… Read the full story at The Defiant
Crypto World
US Sanctions Sinaloa Cartel-Linked Ethereum Addresses
The US Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) sanctioned six Ethereum addresses tied to a Sinaloa Cartel-linked money laundering network that allegedly converted drug proceeds into cryptocurrency.
OFAC added the addresses to its Specially Designated Nationals list (a US sanctions list of people, entities and assets subject to blocking restrictions) on Wednesday as part of sanctions against 11 individuals and two entities connected to two Sinaloa Cartel financial networks.
Treasury said one network, led by Armando de Jesus Ojeda Aviles, collected bulk cash in the US from fentanyl and other drug sales before allegedly converting the money into cryptocurrency for transfer to the cartel in Mexico.
The action highlights how cartel-linked money laundering networks are using digital assets alongside cash couriers and front businesses, raising sanctions compliance risks for crypto exchanges and other virtual asset service providers.

OFAC adds six new Ethereum addresses to sanctions list. Source: OFAC
Cartel cash moved into crypto
The Sinaloa Cartel is allegedly using blockchain technology to launder its illicit fiat money proceeds, according to OFAC.
Cointelegraph contacted OFAC for more details surrounding the Sinaloa Cartel’s money laundering operations.
Related: Kelp DAO attacker moves $175M in Ether after exploit: Arkham
Treasury did not identify which crypto platforms or protocols were allegedly used by the network. The listed Ethereum addresses, however, create sanctions exposure for exchanges, wallet providers and other crypto firms that screen blockchain transactions.
Looking at some of the biggest cryptocurrency hacks, attackers laundered the majority of the $1.4 billion stolen during the Bybit hack, or about $1.2 billion, through THORChain, swapping funds from Ether to Bitcoin, according to Bybit co-founder and CEO Ben Zhou.
Attackers behind the recent $293 million Kelp DAO hack also primarily used THORChain to swap the Ether for Bitcoin, generating about $910,000 in fee revenue for the protocol, Cointelegraph reported on April 23.
Magazine: 53 DeFi projects infiltrated, 50M NEO tokens could be ‘given back’: Asia Express
Crypto World
Bitcoin Trader Sees Breakout Move ‘Soon’ With BTC Circling $77,000
Bitcoin (BTC) focused on $77,000 on Thursday as analysis eyed a minimum 5% BTC price move.
Key points:
- Bitcoin waits for a breakout move as it circles the $77,000 mark.
- Analysis sees risk in shorting price at current levels, with bears in the firing line.
- Macro hurdles keep risk assets down across the board, while US bond yields cool.
Trader sees 5% BTC price move “soon”
Data from TradingView showed BTC price action sticking to a narrow range, with leveraged positions on either side of spot.

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
“Some big clusters right around price. Most notably: the ~$78K area and the $76.5K-$77K area in the short term,” trader Daan Crypto Trades wrote in his latest analysis on X.
“Price has been in a pretty tight price range the past few days so expecting some larger 5%+ move to occur here soon again.”

Crypto liquidation history (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass
Data from CoinGlass revealed that short positions had taken the majority of losses across crypto over the 24 hours to the time of writing.
“Bears on $BTC are getting SQUEEZED in real-time,” X analytics account Cryptic Trades commented.
“While the price is going up, the Open-Interest has dropped by over 12K. This is exactly why you don’t short a BULLISH BACKTEST.”

BTC/USDT one-hour chart with open interest data. Source: Cryptic Trades/X
Cryptic Trades remained optimistic about BTC market strength despite the loss of various support levels in recent days. Holding above $74,000, it continued, was the “most likely outcome.”
“Shorting here, or hedging your spot holdings simply doesn’t make sense from a technical perspective, because the market structure remains intact,” it argued.

BTC/USD three-day chart. Source: Cryptic Trades/X
Oil returns to triple figures on Iran cues
Bitcoin and other risk assets faced familiar macro headwinds on the day, with WTI oil prices heading back above $100 per barrel.
Related: BTC price ‘bull trap’ at $76.5K? Five things to know in Bitcoin this week
The US-Iran war remained the key catalyst amid mixed reports over uranium enrichment and a permanent toll on oil traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

CFDs on WTI crude oil one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
The day prior, US President Donald Trump had sent oil and US bond yields lower with hints that an Iran peace deal was near.
“It’s the same recipe, if this trend is prolonged and the deal is likely finalized, you’ll see yields continue to fall even more, especially in Japan,” crypto trader and analyst Michaël Van de Poppe responded.
“If those yields come down –> risk-on assets to rally even higher.”

US 30-year treasury yield one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Crypto World
Assessing Crypto ETPs in an Evolving Market
In today’s newsletter, Sarah Cummings from Morgan Stanley Investment Management provides insights and considerations when assessing crypto exchange-traded funds.
Then, in “Ask an Expert,” Ryan Tannahill from iA Private Wealth USA, answers questions about borrowing against bitcoin assets.
Assessing Crypto ETPs in an Evolving Market
When evaluating exchange‑traded funds (ETFs), investors typically focus on factors such as fees, liquidity and tracking. Spot bitcoin exchange‑traded products (ETPs) introduce additional dimensions of due diligence that investors may be less accustomed to assessing. First launched in January 2024, these vehicles — structured as grantor trusts under the 1933 Act — seek to track bitcoin performance using a designated pricing benchmark. Understanding how their structure, custody arrangements and benchmarks operate is central to evaluating these products.
Core ETF considerations
As with any ETF, headline costs and trading characteristics matter.
Fees and waivers. While fee compression has occurred since the first spot bitcoin ETPs entered the market, expense ratios still vary meaningfully across products. Investors may wish to distinguish between gross and net expense ratios, particularly where fee waivers are in place. Such waivers may be subject to asset thresholds or expiration dates that could affect costs over time.
Liquidity and execution. Trading volume, bid/ask spreads, and overall fund liquidity remain important inputs when assessing the total cost of ownership. However, because bitcoin itself is a highly liquid underlying asset, onscreen fund liquidity may not fully reflect execution quality. In practice, similarly priced execution may be achievable across products despite differences in visible trading activity. Engaging with a trust sponsor or liquidity provider ahead of a trade may help manage execution costs.
Tracking and fund design. Given their single‑asset, passive structure, spot bitcoin ETPs tend to exhibit limited sources of tracking error. Expense ratios are typically the primary driver, with lower‑fee products generally expected to track more closely over time. In‑kind creation and redemption mechanisms may also support tighter tracking by reducing frictional costs.
Considerations specific to crypto ETPs
Beyond traditional ETF metrics, several factors are more specific to crypto‑based products.
Digital asset custody. Holding bitcoin requires specialized custody arrangements, a relatively new function within asset servicing. While early infrastructure was largely developed by crypto‑native firms, traditional custodians have increasingly entered the space. Custody practices, regulatory status and bankruptcy protections can differ across providers, making it prudent to understand how and where digital assets are held.
Sponsor profile. The issuer’s background may also warrant consideration. Crypto‑native sponsors and traditional financial institutions may operate under different regulatory frameworks and governance standards, which can influence risk management, operations and investor protections.
Benchmark methodology. The growth of digital asset products has led to the emergence of new benchmark providers. Evaluating a benchmark’s construction—such as exchange inclusion criteria, pricing methodologies and review processes—can be important. A poorly designed benchmark may diverge from broader bitcoin pricing, potentially affecting tracking outcomes.
Bringing it together
In a developing asset class, the structure and design of an ETP can be as consequential as the exposure it seeks to provide. Beyond headline fees, evaluating custody frameworks, sponsor profiles, benchmark methodologies and execution characteristics may help investors better understand potential costs and risks. As the market for crypto ETPs continues to evolve, a disciplined and holistic due diligence process remains essential.
– Sarah Cummings, executive director, ETF Strategist, Morgan Stanley Investment Management
Important risks and disclosures.
Ask an Expert
Q: Do I need to move my bitcoin to get a loan against it?
In many cases, yes — centralized lenders typically require custody of your bitcoin for the loan’s duration. However, structures vary across platforms, so it’s worth understanding who holds your assets and how they’re protected before committing.
Q: What’s the main risk advisors should flag?
Margin calls. If bitcoin drops sharply, clients may be forced to post additional collateral or face liquidation — often at the worst time. That forced sale can also trigger a taxable event, compounding the loss.
Q: Should I do this instead of selling some of my position?
It depends on conviction. If you believe bitcoin appreciates, borrowing preserves that upside while meeting liquidity needs. But if you’re uncertain about the position, adding leverage isn’t the answer — sometimes a clean sale is the simpler move.
– Ryan Tannahill, Investment Advisor Representative, iA Privabecoming
Keep Reading
- The U.S. Senate Banking Committee advanced its crypto market structure bill, the Clarity Act, to the Senate floor on Thursday, bringing it a step closer to passing it into law.
- Japan’s Financial Services Agency recognizes foreign-issued stablecoins as electronic p.yment methods under domestic law, effective June 1.
- Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden says the BoE will publish draft stablecoin rules next month and finalize them by year-end.
Crypto World
VARA Clears Kraken for Dubai Expansion, Signals Regulated Crypto
Kraken’s operator Payward has moved closer to a formal UAE launch after receiving preliminary authorization from Dubai’s Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority (VARA). The company announced that the preliminary VARA nod came alongside a broker-dealer, investment and management licence from the regulator, signaling an expanding footprint in the Gulf region.
Kraken said the preliminary approval was granted on Thursday, with the full launch date yet to be confirmed. At market introduction, the exchange plans to offer AED funding, a full slate of trading services including margin and over-the-counter (OTC) capabilities, and access to Kraken Prime for institutional clients. This aligns with the firm’s stated objective of serving both retail and professional participants in the UAE.
“Kraken’s UAE expansion aligns with our prior regulatory footprint in the region and reinforces the UAE’s position as a regional hub for digital-asset activities,” Kraken’s spokesperson noted. The company also referenced earlier regulatory progress in the UAE, including its 2022 approval to operate within Abu Dhabi’s financial free zone framework under ADGM.
According to Kraken, the development fits a longer strategy to create a robust and compliant presence in the Middle East, leveraging a UAE licensing regime that is widely viewed by market participants as among the most mature in the region. The firm’s public messaging about the UAE expansion was shared in its official blog post linking the VARA authorization with its broader UAE ambitions.
Dubai’s VARA register has grown to include 49 active crypto firms across exchange, broker-dealer, custody and lending activities, illustrating the city’s push to establish a regional digital-asset services ecosystem. Notable names on the public register include Binance, Crypto.com, OKX, Deribit and HashKey, a reflection of Dubai’s strategy to attract global operators under a centralized regulatory framework. Kraken and its parent Payward do not yet appear on the regulator’s public list. The most recent update to the register shows CoinCorner obtaining approval to offer virtual-asset broker-dealer services on May 5.
Dubai’s regulatory posture continues to attract crypto firms despite geopolitical frictions in the region. Industry executives frequently point to regulatory clarity as a key differentiator when choosing where to establish or expand operations, especially versus jurisdictions that are perceived as more fragmented or uncertain. The UAE’s approach to licensing, oversight and risk management stands as a core reason why major institutions are weighing Dubai as a base for regional activity.
In the framing of the expansion, Kraken co-CEO Arjun Sethi was quoted as saying, “Dubai wrote a rulebook for crypto before most jurisdictions even acknowledged the asset class. That clarity is why real liquidity and institutional capital now sit in the UAE.” This sentiment underscores the broader narrative that regulatory certainty can translate into measurable access to liquidity and client demand for compliant operators.
Related coverage notes that the UAE’s licensing environment for crypto and government-related payments has been evolving, reflecting a broader policy push to integrate digital assets into a regulated financial ecosystem. For context, Crypto.com has previously secured a UAE license tied to government crypto-payments initiatives, illustrating a wider corporate migration toward Dubai’s structured regime for digital assets.
Key takeaways
- Kraken receives preliminary VARA authorization to operate in the UAE, paired with a broker-dealer, investment and management licence, signaling imminent market entry.
- The launch plan includes UAE dirham funding, margin trading, OTC services and access to Kraken Prime for institutional clients.
- Dubai’s VARA public register comprises 49 active crypto entities, with several major global platforms already listed; Kraken/Payward are not yet on the public register.
- The UAE’s regulatory framework is cited by industry participants as a key driver of liquidity and institutional participation in the region.
- Regulatory clarity in Dubai is positioned as a differentiator from jurisdictions perceived as more fragmented or uncertain, especially in the context of cross-border crypto operations.
Kraken’s UAE regulatory footprint and market entrance
The preliminarily cleared status from VARA, complemented by a broker-dealer, investment and management licence, marks a tangible milestone for Kraken’s regional strategy. The UAE has pursued a centralized, rule-based approach to digital assets, seeking to align exchange operations, custody, and ancillary services under a single regulatory umbrella. Kraken’s stated plan to offer AED-denominated funding and a full suite of trading services—including limited leverage through margin facilities and OTC desks—is aimed at meeting the demands of both sophisticated traders and institutional clients seeking compliant access to the region’s liquidity pools.
While the company’s announcement confirms the regulatory green light for a UAE-based operation, it also signals a transition phase for the broader market: operators are navigating a dual objective of rapid onboarding and rigorous risk controls. The 2022 ADGM license previously granted to Kraken under Abu Dhabi’s Global Market framework remains a foundational element of the firm’s regional compliance architecture, illustrating a layered regulatory engagement that some market participants view as a blueprint for cross-jurisdictional operations within the UAE.
From a compliance perspective, the combination of VARA’s licensing and ADGM’s established framework could facilitate a more predictable operating environment for foreign crypto firms. For banks and institutional clients, the UAE’s approach may translate to clearer AML/KYC processes, standardized onboarding, and defined capital and reporting regimes—elements that are increasingly essential for regulated market participation in digital assets. Observers note that such clarity can reduce counterparty risk and enable more robust risk governance structures for institutional participants looking to engage with UAE-based venues and counterparties.
Dubai’s regulatory landscape: a growing registry and policy implications
Dubai’s VARA registry’s expansion to 49 active firms demonstrates a sustained regulatory effort to formalize digital-asset activities across exchange, broker-dealer, custody and lending services. The selection of prominent global operators—such as Binance, Crypto.com, OKX, Deribit and HashKey—illustrates a deliberate strategy to attract marquee players while maintaining oversight through a centralized licensing framework. Kraken’s current absence from the public register highlights the ongoing process of formal listing and public disclosure, even as the regulatory apparatus enables market access through provisional approvals.
The UAE’s regulatory stance interacts with global policy trends in meaningful ways. As global markets grapple with the harmonization of crypto regulation, Dubai has pursued a dual strategy: enabling regulated market access for established operators while imposing stringent compliance requirements that align with international norms on AML/KYC, customer protection and financial stability. This approach has implications for licensing pathways, cross-border service provisioning, and the management of systemic risk within digital-asset ecosystems. In practice, firms seeking to operate in Dubai must navigate a layered regime that includes VARA licensing, potential cross-licensing with other UAE authorities, and ongoing supervisory reporting obligations.
Industry participants have emphasized that such regulatory clarity can facilitate legitimate liquidity flows and institutional capital retention within the UAE. The emphasis on a formal rulebook and predictable oversight may influence where firms choose to base regional operations, how they structure product offerings, and how they coordinate with local banks and custodians to support regulated digital-asset activities. For regulators, the UAE model raises considerations about enforcement, cross-border cooperation with other jurisdictions, and the balance between innovation incentives and financial integrity safeguards.
Dubai’s position in the broader policy and market structure
Even as regional tensions in the wider Gulf arena have unsettled some investors and events, Dubai’s ongoing development of a regulated digital-asset ecosystem continues to attract firms seeking greater regulatory certainty. The UAE’s approach to licensing and oversight is often contrasted with jurisdictions where rules are perceived as less transparent or rapidly changing. In this context, the maturation of VARA and the broader UAE regulatory architecture could influence international discussions on crypto policy and influence how other jurisdictions design licensing regimes to attract legitimate activity while addressing financial crime risks.
Looking ahead, observers will be watching for the timing of Kraken’s full launch in the UAE and whether the firm’s public registration status will align with its regulatory approvals. The degree to which VARA’s supervision will integrate with other UAE financial authorities, and how cross-border service provision will be governed, remains an area of interest for compliance teams, legal professionals and institutional desks monitoring evolving regulatory risk in the region.
Crypto market participants and policymakers alike may continue to assess how Dubai’s regulatory architecture helps reconcile the pace of product innovation with the need for robust governance. As Dubai consolidates its status as a regional crypto hub, the coming quarters will test the durability of a framework designed to attract global operators while maintaining a high standard of regulatory oversight.
Closing perspective: The UAE’s regulatory path for digital assets remains a defining factor for industry entrants. Kraken’s preliminary VARA authorization illustrates how a structured licensing environment can enable a measured market entry, with ongoing developments likely to shape cross-border collaboration, compliance practices and institutional access in the Middle East’s expanding crypto ecosystem.
Crypto World
U.S. CFTC secures deal with National Hockey League on prediction market safeguards
In the midst of its playoffs surge, the top professional hockey league has agreed to coordinate oversight of betting on popular prediction markets with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, securing a new memorandum of understanding similar to the one recently struck with Major League Baseball.
The National Hockey League, which had officially linked itself last year with both Kalshi and Polymarket as the league’s official prediction market partners, has agreed to share information with the regulator on event contracts tied to its games, according to a Thursday statement from the agency. The CFTC has been pursuing similar arrangements with all of the professional sports leagues, Chairman Mike Selig said at an event last week.
“This agreement is another step toward safeguarding the integrity of sports and protecting market participants in prediction markets from insider trading, fraud, and other abuses,” he said of the NHL arrangement in a statement.
Selig has made it a point to foster the industry and to defend his agency’s role as its sole regulator.
Prediction market betting has seen explosive growth in recent years, and along with its popularity has come concerns that the wagering is being abused and is encouraging cheating. In a Senate Commerce Committee hearing this week, lawmakers criticized the dark side of the industry. Bad actors — including among the athletes themselves — threaten to “sow doubt in the minds of fans,” said committee Chairman Ted Cruz.
“Integrity has always been and remains paramount to the NHL and fundamental to the trust our fans and partners place in our game,” said NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman, in a statement released by the CFTC. “Our agreement with the CFTC enhances the comprehensive integrity monitoring systems already in place and strengthens our ability to identify, deter, and address potential risks.”
According to the new MOU, the league and regulator will “endeavor to share information, upon request, regarding the integrity of professional hockey and the event contract markets related thereto or other matters deemed appropriate.”
Read More: Prediction markets firms take heat in Senate Commerce hearing scrutinizing surge
Crypto World
Nakamoto Ltd Enacts 1-for-40 Split to Secure Nasdaq Listing, Tilts Toward Bitcoin Treasury
Nakamoto Ltd is executing a 1-for-40 reverse stock split Friday, a compliance-driven consolidation that collapses 696.1 million outstanding shares down to approximately 17.4 million and targets the one threshold that determines exchange survival: Nasdaq’s $1.00 minimum bid requirement.
The company’s shares had fallen to $0.22 as of April 6, 2026, triggering a Nasdaq deficiency notice under Listing Rule 5450(a)(1) with an initial compliance deadline of June 8, 2026.
This is not purely a defensive maneuver. Paired with the reverse stock split is a deliberate pivot toward a Bitcoin Treasury model, positioning Nakamoto alongside the growing category of crypto equities designed to offer institutional investors regulated, exchange-listed exposure to BTC price performance without holding spot Bitcoin directly.
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How the 1-for-40 Nakamoto Split Restores Nasdaq Compliance, and What It Costs Existing Shareholders
A 1-for-40 reverse stock split means every 40 shares of existing common stock are consolidated into a single new share.
At a pre-split price of $0.22, the theoretical post-split opening price lands near $8.80, well above Nasdaq’s $1.00 floor and within the range needed to satisfy the exchange’s minimum bid requirement under Listing Rule 5450(a)(1).
Shareholders approved the action at a Special Meeting on May 8, 2026, granting the board discretion to set the final ratio anywhere within a 1-for-20 to 1-for-50 range.

The board elected 1-for-40. Authorized shares and par value remain unchanged by the consolidation, which is structurally significant: Nakamoto retains substantial headroom for future equity issuances, ATM offerings, convertible notes, or share-based acquisitions – without requiring an additional shareholder vote to expand authorized capital.
One cost falls on smaller holders. Shareholders whose positions do not divide evenly into 40-share lots will receive cash in lieu of fractional shares, not additional stock.
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The post Nakamoto Ltd Enacts 1-for-40 Split to Secure Nasdaq Listing, Tilts Toward Bitcoin Treasury appeared first on Cryptonews.
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