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Analysts weigh in on Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan’s $1 million bitcoin call

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Analysts weigh in on Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan’s $1 million bitcoin call

Bitcoin could eventually reach $1 million per coin if it captures a larger share of the global store-of-value market currently dominated by gold and government bonds, according to Bitwise Asset Management CIO Matt Hougan.

In a report earlier this week, Hougan said bitcoin’s long-term upside depends less on short-term market cycles and more on how much of the world’s wealth preservation market the cryptocurrency absorbs over time.

“One million sounds crazy,” said Hougan. “It implies bitcoin will rise 14x from today’s price.”

He pointed to several factors supporting that forecast, among them the rapid growth of the global store-of-value market, including gold, government bonds and other defensive assets, which has expanded from roughly $2.5 trillion in 2004 to nearly $40 trillion today. Bitcoin currently represents only about 4% of that market by value.

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If the largest cryptocurrency were to capture roughly half of that market under current conditions, its price could approach that $1 million mark within roughly a decade, Hougan said. If the broader store-of-value market continues expanding, bitcoin would require a smaller share to reach that level.

The $1 million price fixation

The $1 million forecast has become a recurring theme across the crypto industry. President Donald Trump’s son Eric recently doubled down on his $1 million BTC call. In August, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said bitcoin could reach that price by 2030.

Jack Dorsey, who ran X (formerly Twitter) until 2021 and co-founded payments firm Block (formerly Square), said bitcoin could reach $1 million in five years. Arthur Hayes, former BitMEX CEO, believes it could come as soon as 2028. Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest projected that bitcoin could reach $3.8 million by the end of the decade. Bernstein in 2024 forecast $1 million by 2033.

So why has the $1 million target become such a widely cited benchmark for bitcoin? CoinDesk asked several market analysts.

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“It’s a clean headline and shorthand for the idea that Bitcoin could rival gold as a store of value. The exact number matters less than the share of global wealth Bitcoin captures,” said Mati Greenspan, market analyst and Quantum Economics founder.

For Jason Fernandes, also a market analyst and an AdLunam co-founder, the milestone is more psychological than a precise valuation target, reflecting the belief that bitcoin could ultimately win the store-of-value debate.

However, he also believes part of the narrative is driven by marketing dynamics. “Some of the narrative is promotional because round numbers travel well and align with holder incentives,” Fernandes said, though he added that the underlying thesis is not purely hype.

“I think many investors make a ‘static denominator’ mistake, valuing bitcoin against today’s store-of-value market instead of a much larger future one,” he said.

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For Fernandes, the real question is not whether $1 million bitcoin is theoretically possible, but whether institutional adoption compounds long enough to justify that price.

Analysts agree on direction, but not the timeline

Some of the analysts who shared their comments with CoinDesk said Hougan’s projection is plausible over the long term, though most frame it as a decade-scale adoption story rather than a near-term forecast.

“Geopolitical tension strengthens the Bitcoin thesis,” said Greenspan. “In uncertain times, investors look for neutral stores of value, and Bitcoin increasingly sits in that bucket alongside gold.”

Greenspan said the milestone is possible but would likely take a decade or more, requiring continued institutional adoption and broader regulatory clarity.

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Fernandes said Hougan’s argument is essentially a market-share thesis. Bitcoin does not need to replace gold outright, he said; it only needs to capture a portion of a growing global store-of-value market.

“A $1 million bitcoin assumes long-term adoption and market-share gains within the global store-of-value market,” Fernandes said. “It’s a thesis about bitcoin’s end state if it matures into a major global monetary asset.”

Institutional adoption remains the key driver

Hougan has argued that bitcoin’s fixed supply of 21 million coins and its decentralized network give it characteristics similar to those of traditional stores of value, such as gold.

Fernandes said the long-term $1 million thesis depends largely on continued institutional adoption and growth in the global store-of-value market.

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“BTC doesn’t need to replace gold or fiat; it only needs to capture about 17% of a projected $121 trillion store-of-value market over the next decade to justify a $1 million price,” Fernandes said.

Greenspan said geopolitical uncertainty could further strengthen bitcoin’s appeal as a neutral asset.

“In uncertain times, investors look for neutral stores of value, and bitcoin increasingly sits in that bucket alongside gold,” he said, though he added that reaching such a valuation would likely take years of sustained adoption.

Nima Beni, founder of Bitlease, said the timeline could accelerate if confidence in traditional financial assets weakens.

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“Bitcoin reaches $1 million when confidence in traditional ‘safe’ assets breaks,” he said, pointing to potential sovereign debt crises or disruptions in the gold market as possible catalysts.

Despite the bullish projections, analysts said bitcoin’s path toward such valuations would depend more on long-term adoption and macroeconomic conditions than on short-term market cycles.

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Crypto World

Iran’s Telegram ban backfired, stoking crypto concerns

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Crypto Breaking News

The Iranian government’s bid to shutter Telegram in the country appears to have backfired, as millions of users find workarounds to stay online through privacy-centric tools and VPNs, according to Telegram founder Pavel Durov.

In a post on X, Durov said Tehran’s attempt to clamp down on the messaging app “years ago” has instead fueled a broader wave of circumvention. He noted that tens of millions of Iranians remain connected via VPNs and similar technologies, and he highlighted a cross-border effect as VPN-driven connectivity accelerates in Russia as well.

“The government hoped for mass adoption of its surveillance messaging apps, but got mass adoption of VPNs instead. Now, 50 million members of the digital resistance in Iran are joined by over 50 million more in Russia.”

Decentralized technologies—ranging from blockchain-based messaging to encrypted, distributed networks—are increasingly pitched as a way to counter state-imposed online restrictions and surveillance, offering users a path to private communications even when central authorities exert control.

Key takeaways

  • Iran’s Telegram ban did not end use; tens of millions continue to access the service via VPNs and related tools, per Pavel Durov.
  • The stance has produced a broader migration toward privacy-preserving and decentralized messaging technologies beyond a single app.
  • Even as governments restrict access, parallel connectivity channels such as Starlink and device-to-device mesh networks emerge as potential backstops for communication.
  • Evidence from protests in Nepal and Madagascar shows spikes in downloads of decentralized messaging apps during periods of social unrest, underscoring demand for censorship-resistant tools.
  • For investors and builders, the episode highlights a growing divergence between regulatory attempts to control information flow and a user base willing to adopt privacy-native infrastructure at scale.

Regulatory push, user resilience

Iran’s January 2026 nationwide internet blackout, enacted amid escalating protests and ongoing regional tensions, marked a decisive move to curb online mobilization. While the blackout remains in effect, residents retain some access through alternative means—most notably satellite-backed networks such as Starlink, which the government has not fully blocked—and through local, privacy-forward apps capable of wading through censorship filters.

Among the most discussed workarounds is BitChat, a messaging application built to operate over Bluetooth and mesh networks. BitChat turns each participating device into a relay node, effectively stitching a communications mesh that can bypass traditional networks and satellite backbones. Its decentralized design aims to keep conversations flowing even when centralized infrastructure is restricted.

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The broader ecosystem around decentralized technologies is also expanding to address similar scenarios elsewhere. BitChat’s architecture has drawn attention for its potential to offer an alternative communication channel when internet access is compromised. The project’s technical approach and practical uses were detailed in public repositories and whitepapers, illustrating how mesh networking can complement or substitute conventional connectivity in crisis conditions.

Decentralized messaging in the crucible of unrest

The wave of protests that swept across Nepal in 2025 and 2026 brought a notable surge in interest for censorship-evading communication tools. Cointelegraph reported a sharp uptick in BitChat downloads in Nepal during the social-media crackdown, described as a period when the government’s grip on information intensified. In the same breath, Nepalese protests were described as having a transformative political effect within the month, with the government reportedly toppled by demonstrators in that period.

Similar dynamics were observed in Madagascar, where a related surge in decentralized messaging adoption accompanied political turbulence. These patterns illustrate a practical use case for privacy-preserving and distributed communications during periods of blackout and unrest, rather than a speculative tech experiment.

Proponents argue that the trend signals more than isolated incidents. As governments seek to regulate or disable centralized platforms, users appear to gravitate toward tools that improve resilience, privacy, and autonomy. This shift aligns with a broader discourse in the crypto and decentralized tech communities about building communications layers that remain accessible despite state-level interference.

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What this means for markets, users, and builders

The episode offers a tangible case study in how regulatory pressure can inadvertently accelerate adoption of decentralized and privacy-first technologies. For traders and investors, the takeaway is not a call for quick price moves but a recognition that demand for censorship-resistant communications could expand alongside ongoing geopolitical frictions and regulatory crackdowns in various regions.

For developers and infrastructure builders, the narrative underscores several priorities: enhancing the reliability of offline and mesh-based communications, improving the security and usability of decentralized messaging, and developing interoperable layers that can bridge traditional networks with privacy-focused protocols. The convergence of encrypted messaging with crypto-inspired incentives and governance mechanisms could shape new kinds of platforms that prioritize user sovereignty and resilience over centralized control.

While the exact regulatory responses and technological adoption timelines remain uncertain, the Iranian case—paired with parallel developments in Nepal and Madagascar—highlights a clear, growing demand for alternatives that keep people connected when conventional networks falter.

As the situation evolves, watchers should monitor how governments respond to a populace that increasingly expects and deploys private, censorship-resistant channels. The next developments could redefine how citizens, developers, and policymakers think about online rights, access, and the role of decentralized technology in everyday communication.

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Source references and ongoing reporting from Cointelegraph and related coverage underscore the continuity of this trend as it unfolds across regions facing varying degrees of internet control and regulatory pressure.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Telegram Has Been Downloaded Over 50M Times in Iran, Despite Ban: Durov

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Decentralization, Privacy, Liberty, Telegram, Cypherpunks, Pavel Durov

The Iranian government’s attempt to block the Telegram messaging application in the country has backfired, as users find ways to circumvent national firewalls and online controls, according to Telegram co-founder Pavel Durov.

“Iran banned Telegram years ago,” Durov said on Friday; however, tens of millions of users in the country have managed to access the application via virtual private networks (VPNs) and other similar tools, he added.

VPNs route web traffic through servers distributed around the globe to mask the true Internet Protocol (IP) addresses of users and obscure their locations. This allows individuals with VPN access to bypass national online restrictions. Durov said:

“The government hoped for mass adoption of its surveillance messaging apps, but got mass adoption of VPNs instead. Now, 50 million members of the digital resistance in Iran are joined by over 50 million more in Russia.”

Decentralization, Privacy, Liberty, Telegram, Cypherpunks, Pavel Durov
Source: Pavel Durov

Decentralized technologies like blockchain, crypto and encrypted messaging applications can mitigate or neutralize state-imposed online restrictions and surveillance infrastructure, promoting individual liberty, proponents of decentralized technology say.

Related: Global turmoil pushes uptake of decentralized messengers, social media

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Users turn to decentralized alternatives amid online blackouts

The government of Iran imposed a nationwide internet blackout in January 2026, amid growing protests and civil unrest, which is still in effect due to the ongoing war between Israel, the United States and Iran.

Residents in the country can still access the internet through Starlink, a satellite-based network, or communicate via BitChat, a messaging application that uses Bluetooth radio waves to form a mesh network between devices.

BitChat’s mesh network transforms each device into a relay node that transfers data to other devices running the application within range, bypassing online and satellite-based systems entirely.

Decentralization, Privacy, Liberty, Telegram, Cypherpunks, Pavel Durov
The components of the BitChat messaging application tech stack. Source: GitHub

The government of Nepal imposed a social media ban in September 2025 amid growing protests, causing a spike in BitChat downloads.

Bitchat was downloaded over 48,000 times in Nepal the week of the social media ban, and the government of Nepal was toppled by protestors that same month.

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The application recorded a similar download spike in Madagascar amid protests, which also occurred around the same time as the political revolution in Nepal.

Magazine: Did Telegram’s Pavel Durov commit a crime? Crypto lawyers weigh in