Bitcoin (BTC) heads into June with new local lows as the US-Iran war drives crypto market nerves.

• Iran ceasefire hopes hang in the balance as military strikes return, but US President Donald Trump appears confident that “it will all work out well in the end.”
• BTC price weakness quickly returns after the May close, with $72,000 liquidity on the radar.
• US employment data could still deliver a classic BTC price tailwind.
• Bitcoin long-term holders are putting February’s $60,000 lows in doubt as a reliable floor.
• Sentiment research calls for a flush of overly optimistic traders’ positions next.

Trump on Iran: “Just sit back and relax”

News of strikes on Iranian targets keep the Middle East conflict firmly on the radar as a source of crypto market volatility this week.

Exchanges of fire meant that BTC price action quickly came under pressure following the monthly close, dropping below $73,000.

BTC/USD one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The latest events further brought into question the odds of a ceasefire being signed, with this notionally meant to last at least 60 days.

“Iran really wants to make a deal, and it will be a good one for the U.S.A. and those that are with us,” US president Donald Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social on Monday.

Trump referenced hurdles in the form of political dissent at home — rather than specific problems involving Iran itself — as the reason for the lack of progress.

He concluded:

“Just sit back and relax, it will all work out well in the end – It always does!”

Source: Truth Social

Despite Bitcoin feeling the heat, US stocks looked set to continue a trend of divergence with crypto as the new week began. S&P 500 futures opened the week up by around 0.25%.

Commenting on the factors driving the equities rally, which last week saw repeat new all-time highs, trading resource Mosaic Asset Company put AI firmly in focus.

“The narrative driving the stock market has hardly changed in recent weeks,” it wrote in the latest edition of its regular analysis series, Mosaic Chart Alerts. 

“Optimism around a potential peace deal between the U.S. and Iran helps to spark a rally in the major indexes. For the most part, there has been very little substance behind the headlines, but that hasn’t stopped the rally in stocks linked to the AI infrastructure buildout.”

Bitcoin price caught between liquidity and CME gap

Bitcoin started the first week of June with a bump as US-Iran war tensions quickly spilled over into BTC price action.

Data from TradingView shows a trip below $73,000 just hours after the weekly and monthly candle close.

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

“For now price is stuck within this mini-range since last week,” trader Daan Crypto Trades summarized in his latest analysis on X. 

“~$74.2K keeps rejecting price as resistance while ~$72.7K is held as support. Those are the levels to watch in the short term.”

BTC/USDT perpetual contract one-hour chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/X

Trader CW suggested that the price was targeting nearby high-liquidity levels on exchange order books, notably a position closer to $72,000.

“The buy wall for $BTC whales is at 72k and the sell wall is at 80k,” they added.

BTC order-book liquidation heatmap. Source: CW/X

A silver lining came from the weekly close itself, which preserved what trader and analyst Rekt Capital said would be a key level for bulls — $73,000.

“If Bitcoin manages to Weekly Close above $73k then price will be one step closer to confirming the Double Bottom breakout & be positioned to try to trend continue,” he told X followers at the weekend.

To the upside, trader CrypNuevo flagged a lone CME Group’s Bitcoin futures near $75,000 as a potential short-term BTC price target.

CME Bitcoin futures 15-minute chart. Source: CrypNuevo/X

As Cointelegraph reported, CME gaps became a thing of the past last week as its futures market started to trade 24 hours a day, seven days a week.

CrypNuevo said that they were looking for a “W”-shaped reversal pattern for price on low time frames.

PMI leads potential BTC price boost sources

The coming week sees inflation data yield to employment cues as the labor market becomes traders’ key focus.

Monday starts with the May print of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) — one of two core PMI releases this week.

ISM has been in a fresh uptrend since earlier in the year, when it ended a three-year period of contraction and immediately delivered a tailwind to Bitcoin price performance.

Commenting, entrepreneur and investor Mark Chadwick had some good news for crypto bulls. Based on business cycles, recent PMI figures could preclude a new period of gains.

“Expansion zones perfectly align with previous Alt Seasons – and we’re about to expand! The data backs it up too: ISM PMI has been above 50 for 3 straight months. Above 50 = expansion,” he wrote in an X post alongside data from pseudonymous analyst TechDev.

BTC/USD versus employment cycle. Source: Mark Chadwick/X

The coming days also see US nonfarm payrolls numbers, providing a snapshot of the labor market against a backdrop of rising inflation.

In a note of caution, Mosaic Asset Company reminded readers of last week’s high Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation report.

“For investors hoping that the boost in inflation could be temporary from the jump in energy prices, the report contained bad news,” it continued. 

“The core goods figure that excludes food and energy rose by 2.8% and is one of the biggest increases in decades outside of the pandemic aftermath.”

US PCE index % change (screenshot). Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Bitcoin long-term holders may produce a new bear-market low

Bitcoin holder trends mean that the BTC price bottom may well still be ahead in the 2026 bear market.

New findings from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant cast doubt on the BTC price rebound from multiyear lows near $60,000.

“A rebound during a downtrend is hard to read as a bottom, because even within it the LTH (long-term holder) UTXO share keeps rising rather than declining,” contributor AbstractRyu wrote in a Quicktake blog post on Monday.

The post compares unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs) involving coins dormant for more than or less than six months, with the former classed as LTH coins. 

“On Realized Cap – UTXO Age Bands (%), there are only two ways the LTH (6m+) share grows: existing holdings age in place without being spent, or STH (short-term holder) coins cross the six-month mark and reclassify as LTH,” it explains. 

“Neither reflects fresh demand reviving turnover. That is why a rising share, on its own, is hard to read as bullish.”

Bitcoin UTXO age data (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant

As such, even BTC/USD rebounding by $20,000 versus its local lows is not enough to insure the market against a new macro floor. For this, LTH activity must pick up via some form of “distribution” phase.

“At present, the LTH band share has not declined at all, even through the rebounds marked by the blue circles,” AbstractRyu concluded alongside an explanatory chart. 

“Distribution has not begun, and last month’s rebound, too, was likely a dead-cat bounce. The bottom is not yet in.”

Bitcoin “long-leaning bias” in need of a flush

Bitcoin continues to field concerns over a “long squeeze” thanks to overly bullish bets on BTC price action.

Related: Bitcoin price record 90-day uptrend ‘resembles bull market rally:’ New analysis

In an analysis over the weekend, CryptoQuant contributor Nino flagged positive funding rates as an ongoing signal to be “cautious” in the current market.

Funding rates, as Cointelegraph reported, have flipped net positive, indicating a “long-leaning bias” among traders. 

Now, on a three-day rolling basis, funding is approaching its highest levels since the start of the year — even as price action itself tracks sideways.

“Recent market observations suggest that the 72-period moving average cluster for funding rates is showing a positive bias, approaching levels reminiscent of the peak seen in late January 2026,” Nino summarized. 

“Coupled with the current stagnation in price action, this dynamic could imply an accumulation of long positions that have yet to translate into sustained upward momentum.”

Bitcoin funding rate data (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant

The implication is that price could redress the balance of longs and shorts by liquidating the former with a drop to new local lows.

“Consequently, the short-term outlook appears somewhat cautious, raising the possibility of a near-term downward leg as the market might need to clear potential excess leverage,” Nino added.

In its own analysis, crypto sentiment platform Santiment described the overall market mood as its most “lopsided positive” of 2026 so far.

“The current euphoria contrasts sharply with the bearish ETF flow picture and warrants caution,” it advised.

Last week Reuters? No. This article is rewritten. A $1.26 billion block trade in BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) was executed via a dark pool by an unidentified seller, according to analysis from NYDIG’s head of research, Greg Cipolaro. The move, involving 29.2 million IBIT shares, is interpreted by Cipolaro as evidence of a large directional holder exiting a concentrated bet rather than a routine unwind of a basis trade. The seller reportedly accepted the sale at about $1.01 below the prevailing market price of $44.17, effectively paying roughly $29.5 million in exchange for immediate execution.

The trade drew attention not only for its size but for the mechanics: a private venue, not a public market, and a sizable discount to immediate liquidation. Such characteristics are often associated with institutional liquidity needs, but Cipolaro cautioned that the available data cannot definitively distinguish between a forced liquidity event and a deliberate portfolio repositioning. “While the transaction details themselves cannot answer that question, they do demonstrate that at least one sophisticated holder was willing to pay approximately $29.5 million to eliminate a $1.26 billion bitcoin-linked position immediately,” he noted in his research release.

Bitcoin, meanwhile, faced a cautious reaction. The day of the IBIT block sale saw BTC retreat around 2.8%, though market observers noted that the move was absorbed without triggering a broader rout, a view echoed by Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas. “The market absorbed the sale well,” Balchunas observed at the time.

“The key unanswered question is whether the seller was responding to idiosyncratic constraints or expressing a broader investment view.”

Beyond the immediate price action, the activity fed into a broader tailwind of ETF outflows. Farside Investors’ data show US-listed Bitcoin ETFs extending a streak of net outflows to 11 straight trading days, with a $333.6 million outflow recorded on the same day as the IBIT sale. In total, more than $2.9 billion has flowed out of these funds since May 14, marking a meaningful shift in near-term demand for BTC exposure through traditional exchange-traded vehicles.

The behavioral backdrop accompanying these flows is tepid at best. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index registered a score of 29 out of 100 on Monday, signaling fear in the market, and the index tracked an average “fear” rating for May. These sentiment readings dovetail with a period of uncertainty around large, liquidations and the durability of ETF-driven demand in the BTC space.

Key takeaways

• A single $1.26 billion IBIT block trade, executed via a dark pool, points to a large directional exit rather than a routine unwind of a basis trade.
• Execution details — 29.2 million shares sold at roughly $43.16 versus a market price of $44.17, and a $29.5 million premium for immediate liquidity — imply a deliberate, time-urgent disposition of a large position.
• Bitcoin’s 2.8% daily drop did not trigger a broader collapse in perception, with market observers noting the move was absorbed relatively smoothly per analysts.
• ETF outflows remained a defining theme, with US-listed BTC ETFs recording 11 straight days of net withdrawals and over $2.9 billion out since May 14, according to Farside Investors.

Market dynamics and what to watch next

The first week of June may turn crypto’s 2025 policy wins into hard deadlines. Comment periods for the GENIUS Act’s stablecoin rules start closing this week, reaching the point where a federal framework stops being statute and becomes the operating rules issuers have to build to.

What gets settled in those windows decides who can issue, what reserves they hold and whether yield survives. Banks have spent the past few months pushing to slow the rollout, a fight over yield-bearing stablecoins that has already stalled the Clarity Act for months. The Senate floor opens June 3 to try again.

The value of stablecoins in circulation, which Samara Cohen, BlackRock’s global head of market development, called the “bridge between traditional finance and digital liquidity,” has kept rising and hit a record $322 billion in late May. The ECB is now warning these instruments could cement dollar dominance.

Macro and geopolitical impact will also need to be closely monitored. While economic data will provide further hints on the Fed’s future policy direction, an earlier-than-expected ceasefire in the Middle East could revive risk appetite.

What to Watch

(All times ET)

• Crypto
  • June 2: Comment periods for GENIUS Act stablecoin frameworks close for the Treasury, FDIC and FinCEN/OFA
  • June 3: The Senate floor window reopens to consolidate the Clarity Act into a single vehicle with CFTC provisions and GENIUS Act updates, targeting a August signing.
  • Q3: Ethereum to move forward with the ‘Glamsterdam’ upgrade, featuring parallel execution, ePBS MEV reforms, a 200M gas limit target, and lower layer-1 transaction fees.
• Macro
  • June 1, 10 a.m.: U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for May est. 52.6 (Prev. 52.7); Prices est. 85.3 (Prev. 84.6)
  • June 1, 6 p.m.: South Korea Inflation Rate YoY for May est. 3.0% (Prev. 2.6%)
  • June 2, 5 a.m.: Eurozone Inflation Rate YoY Flash for May est. 3.3% (Prev. 3.0%); Core Inflation YoY Flash est. 2.4% (Prev. 2.2%)
  • June 2, 10 a.m.: U.S. JOLTs Job Openings for April est. 6.8M (Prev. 6.866M)
  • June 3, 8:15 a.m.: U.S. ADP Employment Change for May est. 110K (Prev. 109K)
  • June 3, 10 a.m.: U.S. ISM Services PMI for May est. 53.6 (Prev. 53.6)
  • June 4, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for period ending May 30 est. 216K (Prev. 215K)
  • June 5, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls for May est. 96K (Prev. 115K); Unemployment Rate est. 4.3% (Prev. 4.3%)
  • June 5, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Average Hourly Earnings MoM for May est. 0.3% (Prev. 0.2%)
  • June 7: OPEC+ 41st Ministerial Meeting and 66th JMMC
• Earnings
  • June 1: HIVE Digital Technologies (HIVE), post-market, -$0.22

Token Events

• Governance Votes & Calls
  • Superfluid DAO is voting on continuing the yield backends for both ETHx and USDCx with their current code across all networks. Voting ends on June 1.
  • ENS DAO is voting on a social proposal to determine the structural framework and election timeline for Term 7 of its working groups. Voting ends on June 1.
  • ShapeShift DAO is voting to distribute $150,681.30 of unallocated exploit revenue to affected DeFi communities and to add discostu to the engineering workstream for business development. Voting ends on June 2 and June 3.
  • Decentraland DAO is voting on lowering the voting power (VP) threshold for governance proposals from 6 million to 5 million or less, aiming to address declining voter participation. Voting ends on June 2.
  • 1inch Network DAO is voting to renew its recognized delegate program for 12 months with an updated $220,000 budget and stricter performance criteria. Voting ends on June 3.
  • Arbitrum DAO is voting on proposals to fund the Arbitrum Foundation with $16M in RWAs, 1,740 ETH, and 230M ARB for continued operations, and to transition Arbitrum Nova into a minimized, low-cost maintenance state. Voting ends on June 4.
  • Lightchain AI DAO is voting on migrating 4.42 billion LCAI from its Ethereum-based treasury to its native Lightchain mainnet DAO treasury at a 1:1 ratio, and on approving a BitMart listing agreement and $30,000 listing fee. Voting ends on June 5 and 6.
• Unlocks
  • June 1: SUI$0.8809 to unlock 0.36% of its circulating supply worth $12.88 million.
  • June 5: Ethena (ENA) to unlock 2.07% of its circulating supply worth $15.17 million.
  • June 6: Hyperliquid (HYPE) to unlock 2.54% of its circulating supply worth $673 million.
• Token Launches
  • June 1: Venice (VVV) reduces token emissions by 1 million tokens per year.
  • June 1: Drift (DRIFT) to be delisted from Upbit Korea.
  • June 2: Sei (SEI) to unveil a “new blockchain revaluation framework for financial services” with Mastercard.
  • June 4: Augur hard fork deadline.

Conferences

Key Takeaways

• Micron achieved a $1 trillion valuation momentarily on May 26 following UBS’s price target increase to $1,625 — representing the most aggressive forecast among 46 Wall Street firms tracking the company.
• Shares surged 17.4% that session, extending gains to over 220% year-to-date and a remarkable 830% over the trailing twelve months.
• Second quarter fiscal results showed revenue climbing nearly threefold to $23.86 billion, while adjusted earnings per share of $12.20 crushed expectations of $9.19.
• The company’s entire 2026 allocation of HBM (high-bandwidth memory) has been fully committed, with next-generation HBM4 production already underway for Nvidia’s upcoming Vera Rubin architecture.
• Analyst consensus leans heavily toward “Strong Buy,” with firms pointing to constrained AI memory availability that may extend into 2027.

Micron achieved a landmark valuation that caught many market watchers off guard when it briefly surpassed $1 trillion in market capitalization on May 26. Shares rocketed 17.4% to close at $881.60, after touching a 19.3% intraday peak, following UBS’s decision to nearly triple its price objective from $535 to $1,625.

Micron Technology, Inc., MU

This figure stands as the most optimistic projection among the 46 investment firms actively monitoring the semiconductor manufacturer.

The surge represents the culmination of an extraordinary performance period. Micron shares have skyrocketed more than 220% since the beginning of the year and climbed over 830% across the past twelve months, fueled by exceptional quarterly results, constrained supply conditions, and surging AI-related memory chip requirements.

Earnings Performance Driving the Momentum

Micron’s second fiscal quarter delivered results that fundamentally altered the company’s narrative. Revenue expanded nearly three times versus the prior year to reach $23.86 billion, compared to $8.05 billion previously. Net income registered at $13.79 billion, translating to $12.07 per diluted share, a dramatic improvement from $1.58 billion twelve months earlier.

Adjusted earnings per share of $12.20 significantly exceeded the Street consensus estimate of $9.19. Gross profit margin reached approximately 75%, demonstrating the substantial pricing leverage Micron has established during this upcycle.

Adjusted free cash flow totaled $6.9 billion for the period. The company closed the quarter with $16.7 billion in cash and marketable securities on its balance sheet.

Looking toward Q3, management projected revenue of $33.5 billion — substantially above the $24.29 billion consensus forecast at that time — alongside adjusted earnings per share guidance of $19.15.

Chief Executive Sanjay Mehrotra noted the company “set new records across revenue, gross margin, EPS, and free cash flow” during Q2, with additional records anticipated in Q3.

What’s Driving Wall Street’s Optimism

Mizuho Securities conducted meetings with Micron leadership on May 26 and maintained its Outperform rating, keeping its $800 price objective unchanged. Analyst Vijay Rakesh highlighted that HBM and DRAM demand stems primarily from AI workloads, noting that availability for major customers remains 30% to 50% short of actual requirements.

Mizuho further indicated this supply-demand imbalance could continue beyond 2026, projecting that HBM4 and HBM4e pricing might increase between 70% and 100% during 2027 after a pricing adjustment in Q4 2025.

Micron’s complete HBM production capacity for 2026 has already been fully allocated. The company is currently manufacturing HBM4 products for Nvidia’s Vera Rubin platform, which supports analyst confidence in sustained pricing strength.

Beyond Mizuho’s assessment, D.A. Davidson launched coverage with a Buy recommendation and $1,500 price target, while Morgan Stanley and KeyBanc have expressed similar positive outlooks. Overall Street sentiment registers as “Strong Buy,” with the average price target of $1,625 suggesting approximately 76% potential appreciation from current trading levels.

Supporting the demand thesis, Micron recently acquired Powerchip’s Tongluo manufacturing facility in Taiwan for $1.8 billion and announced plans for constructing a second site there. Leadership also increased fiscal 2026 capital expenditure guidance to exceed $25 billion.

Not all analysts dismiss potential headwinds. Some warn that incoming production capacity could create pricing pressure on memory products in 2027 and 2028, and Micron fundamentally remains a cyclical enterprise despite AI’s transformative impact on its business model.

Micron currently commands a forward earnings multiple of approximately 8.4x, contrasting with 22x for the S&P 500 and 26x for the Nasdaq 100.

The Cardano Foundation has canceled its 2026 annual conference after its governance community shot down a revised proposal seeking to fund the event with treasury tokens.

“Governance requires not only participation, but also a commitment to accept collective decisions. The Cardano community has spoken and we respect the outcome,” the foundation posted to X on Saturday after voting closed on Friday.

The proposal sought to use 7.8 million Cardano (ADA) tokens worth $1.84 million to fund the event. 65.2% of votes were cast in favor of the proposal, which was just short of the 66.67% threshold needed to pass. 

Source: Cardano Foundation

The conference, called the Cardano Summit, was scheduled to take place on Oct. 5 and 6 in Singapore.

135 voters were in favor of proceeding with the event, while 61 were against and 24 abstained.

The vote follows a months-long dispute between Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson and many so-called Delegated Representatives (DReps), who have pushed for tighter spending from the foundation’s treasury.

The DReps, which are people or organizations that ADA holders can delegate their voting power to, voted against a similar proposal on May 9 that sought to use about 14 million ADA tokens to fund the event.

Only 10% of DReps voted in favor of that proposal, prompting the foundation to lower the requested funding amount under a new proposal.

Despite the cancellation, EMURGO, the investment and commercial arm behind the Cardano blockchain, passed a proposal to represent the Cardano ecosystem at the TOKEN2049 conference in Singapore on Oct. 7 and 8.

Related: Cardano can now be used to pay at 137 Spar stores across Switzerland 

Hoskinson is gauging interest in the possibility of scaling up the booth at TOKEN2049 and hosting an “embedded MiniSummit.”

The Cardano token has a market capitalization of $8.8 billion, but the network has less than $129 million in total value locked on the protocol, ranking 28th among blockchains.

The Cardano network has made $356,400 in network fees so far in 2026, a fraction of the $8.35 million it recorded in 2022.

Magazine: Big Questions: Do we really only need 2–5 cryptocurrencies? 

Key Takeaways

• Brent crude surged more than 3% to approximately $94 per barrel following weekend military confrontations between the U.S. and Iran
• WTI crude futures advanced roughly 3.5% to $90.40 per barrel, rebounding from steep weekly declines
• American forces targeted Iranian military infrastructure; Tehran retaliated with strikes on a U.S.-operated air facility
• Diplomatic efforts toward a ceasefire continue, but substantial obstacles persist after nearly two months of negotiations
• Approximately 20% of worldwide oil transport flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which faces ongoing disruptions

Crude oil markets rallied more than 3% on Monday following a weekend of military escalation between Washington and Tehran, intensifying worries about potential supply interruptions across the Middle East.

Brent crude futures advanced to approximately $93.95 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate climbed to around $90.40. The gains came after both benchmarks had tumbled roughly 10% during the prior week — marking their steepest weekly declines in recent periods.

Last week’s downturn emerged following indications that American and Iranian officials were advancing toward a ceasefire arrangement. However, optimism evaporated rapidly after the weekend’s military actions.

Weekend Military Escalation Details

U.S. military officials confirmed operations targeting Iranian air defense systems, unmanned aerial vehicle command centers, and supporting infrastructure. The strikes followed Tehran’s alleged downing of an American drone operating in international airspace.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards launched retaliatory strikes against an airfield utilized by American military personnel. Kuwait’s defense systems intercepted additional missile and drone attacks, underscoring the region’s volatility.

Israel intensified regional tensions by directing military forces to advance further into southern Lebanon, expanding operations against Hezbollah. The maneuver sparked concerns about potential broader regional warfare.

Critical Chokepoint Under Pressure

The Strait of Hormuz represents the planet’s most vital oil transit corridor. Roughly one-fifth of global oil supplies move through this narrow waterway.

Maritime traffic through the strait continues operating below typical volumes. Market analysts note that current prices haven’t fully accounted for a complete or prolonged shutdown, suggesting significant upward potential if conditions deteriorate.

Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote, noted that worldwide petroleum reserves are declining rapidly and emphasized that substantial upside price risks remain should disruptions persist through the Strait of Hormuz.

Diplomatic Discussions Advance Slowly

Negotiators are working on a memorandum of understanding designed to resolve blockages in the strait while establishing a 60-day period for addressing disputes concerning Iran’s nuclear activities and sanctions alleviation.

President Trump commented Saturday that the United States was “close to a very good deal” with Iran. He acknowledged, however, that resumed hostilities remained possible should negotiations collapse.

Amarpreet Singh, commodities analyst at Barclays, observed that markets are anxious to incorporate a resolution into pricing, but an agreement remains elusive following seven weeks of diplomatic engagement.

Major obstacles include regional security frameworks, sanctions removal timelines, and maritime passage rights through the strategic waterway.

Crude prices have experienced dramatic volatility in recent weeks as market participants responded to evolving developments on both military and diplomatic fronts.

During early Monday sessions, both Brent and WTI maintained their upward momentum, though experts warned that market direction could shift rapidly based on whether negotiations progress or military operations intensify.