Bitcoin rebounded on Wednesday as attention turned to Federal Reserve commentary on stubborn inflation. The move came alongside a rise in US Treasury yields—an environment that typically makes investors more selective about assets that don’t provide ongoing yield, including cryptocurrencies.

Still, the bounce does not appear to have fully erased underlying caution. Bitcoin recently traded near $61,490 after dipping to a 21-month low of $57,737, while institutional flows into spot Bitcoin ETFs have remained under pressure and analysts continue to debate whether recent weakness marks a durable bottom.

Key takeaways

• Bitcoin climbed after remarks tied to persistent US inflation, but higher bond yields reinforce why “non-yield” assets face ongoing scrutiny.
• Bitcoin bounced from a 21-month low, yet broader sentiment remains in “Extreme Fear” territory based on a fear/greed tracker.
• Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen large outflows in recent weeks, with June reported as the worst month since launch for net withdrawals.
• On-chain and chart-based signals cited by analysts suggest the market may not have reached a bear-market bottom if price stays below longer-term benchmarks.
• Crypto liquidity and leverage look thinner heading into Q3 after Q2 liquidations, potentially dampening forced-selling cascades but increasing price swing risk.

Fed inflation focus meets a rate backdrop that still pressures crypto

Bitcoin’s recovery followed remarks linked to persistent inflation, reported through coverage of US Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s comments. The positive reaction was tempered by the broader macro picture: the US five-year Treasury yield reportedly rose to 4.22%, reflecting investor demand for higher returns on government bonds.

In the same window, oil prices fell—WTI reportedly touched a four-month low—yet market participants still anticipate eventual monetary expansion. The key tension for crypto is that, regardless of how the Fed ultimately handles interest rates or balance-sheet policy, Treasury issuance and yields influence the opportunity cost of holding assets without yield.

BTC rebounds from $57,737 low, but “Extreme Fear” persists

At the time of publication, Bitcoin was trading around $61,490 after earlier trading as low as $57,737 on Wednesday, according to the same market coverage. Ether and Solana also posted gains, with ETH up about 3% and SOL up roughly 4.85%.

However, the rebound took place under an unusually cautious market mood. A fear and greed sentiment tracker cited in the coverage placed the crypto market at roughly 11 out of 100—labeled “Extreme Fear.” That matters because extreme caution can support sharp rallies, but it also suggests many investors remain positioned for downside risk rather than confident recovery.

From a longer perspective, the article noted Bitcoin remains down about a third since the start of the year, and the institutional picture has not improved. Reported flows show US spot Bitcoin ETFs experiencing significant withdrawals, including a total outflow of $4.5 billion in June—described as the largest since the ETFs launched. When institutional allocation confidence lags during a bounce, traders often treat rallies as fragile until inflows return.

PlanB: June weakness and 200-week levels imply the bottom may not be in

Beyond sentiment and ETF flows, at least one widely followed analyst argued the market has more room to fall. PlanB, referenced in the coverage, warned that Bitcoin could drop further after closing June below its 200-week moving average while still trading above its realized price.

The specific setup highlighted is that Bitcoin ended June 20.5% lower to close at $58,526—its worst monthly performance since June 2022. The same coverage placed that close below the 200-week moving average near $62,000, while still above a realized price figure around $52,000.

“All previous bear market bottoms were below realized price,” PlanB said, according to a post attributed to the analyst.

The article further cited PlanB adding that Bitcoin could still decline toward $52,000, framing the current price relationship to those two benchmarks as evidence the bear-market bottom may not yet be confirmed. For traders and portfolio managers, the practical takeaway is that technical “bounce” narratives may remain vulnerable if realized-price confirmation is not reached and ETF outflows continue to weigh on demand.

Sharplink restarts ETH accumulation, while leverage resets change Q3 dynamics

While Bitcoin-focused signals leaned cautious, one notable development in Ethereum accumulation came from Sharplink, a crypto treasury company. The coverage states Sharplink resumed buying Ether after an eight-month pause, and that it purchased $16 million worth of ETH since June 25.

On-chain data from Arkham cited in the report showed Sharplink buying 5,000 ETH on June 25 and another 5,000 ETH on June 26, with the report noting those amounts were worth about $8.5 million per day at the time of the purchases. The company also confirmed the buys in an announcement, saying it paid an average price of $1,611 per ETH.

The same coverage said Sharplink’s latest buys bring its total Ether holdings to 866,725 ETH, and quoted the company’s position that the purchases reflect a continued commitment to growing its ETH treasury as a long-term reserve asset.

Liquidity and positioning are also becoming a key story as markets move into Q3. A market update from institutional data provider Talos, cited in the article, described thinner liquidity but less leverage after Q2. According to Talos, Bitcoin and Ether long liquidations totaled $8.35 billion in Q2—an episode that coincided with spot Bitcoin ETF outflows, reduced Bitcoin buying by Strategy, and a contraction in stablecoin supply.

Talos’ framework suggests the deleveraging may reduce the likelihood of a forced-selling chain reaction heading into Q3. Yet the firm also warned that reduced order-book depth can weaken the market’s ability to absorb renewed selling pressure. In other words: the market may be less fragile in one sense, while simultaneously becoming more prone to sharper swings because there is less trading activity to buffer large orders.

What to watch next as macro pressure and positioning collide

With bond yields still elevated, ETF outflows still shaping institutional demand, and liquidity thinner after Q2’s deleveraging, the next moves in Bitcoin may hinge on whether buying interest returns alongside improved market depth—or whether rallies fade into another test of longer-term technical levels. Investors and traders should watch ETF flow data, Treasury yield direction, and whether stablecoin supply and order-book depth continue to shift as Q3 unfolds.

Robinhood shares have climbed more than 6% after multiple Wall Street firms reaffirmed bullish ratings and projected further upside as the brokerage expands its global business and AI offerings.

According to recent research notes from Piper Sandler, BTIG, and Mizuho, confidence in Robinhood’s long-term growth story has strengthened even after the stock’s strong rally. According to Yahoo Finance data, shares briefly traded above $115 after the Wall Street opening bell, extending their monthly gain to about 31% as investors responded to a series of new product launches and international expansion plans.

Piper Sandler maintained its Buy rating and kept a $135 price target on Robinhood, suggesting the stock still has room to appreciate. BTIG also reiterated its Buy recommendation with a $125 target. Meanwhile, Mizuho raised its target price to $130 from $115 while maintaining a Buy rating, making it one of the latest firms to increase expectations for the brokerage.

Global expansion continues to support Robinhood’s growth story

Mizuho’s latest research note argued that Robinhood could become the first true “hyperscaler” among online brokerage platforms. The firm pointed to Robinhood’s base of more than 27 million funded accounts, its easy-to-use trading platform, and its popularity among younger investors as reasons for its positive outlook.

The brokerage also believes Robinhood’s opportunity extends well beyond the United States. According to Mizuho, the company is expected to deepen its presence across Europe before eventually expanding further into Asian markets.

Recent announcements from Robinhood have added support to that outlook. The company said it now serves more than 1 million funded customers in Europe while confirming plans to launch Robinhood Crypto in the UK as part of its regional expansion.

Outside Europe, Robinhood officially introduced its crypto platform in Canada with zero trading fees for the first 90 days. The company also disclosed that it had secured a brokerage license in Singapore, giving it another foothold in the Asian market.

AI products and blockchain strategy attract fresh investor attention

Alongside its international rollout, Robinhood has continued expanding its technology offerings. The company recently introduced Robinhood Chain, a blockchain network designed to support AI-assisted token swaps, liquidity discovery, and access to tokenized real-world assets.

The blockchain launch followed the rollout of Robinhood’s Agentic trading tools, which use artificial intelligence to help users analyze markets and manage investments. According to the company, those AI-native features have gained traction among traders since their introduction.

The combination of blockchain infrastructure, AI-powered products, and expansion into new markets has coincided with stronger optimism from Wall Street analysts. Their latest forecasts suggest these initiatives could open additional revenue streams while helping Robinhood diversify beyond its traditional retail brokerage business.

Even with analysts maintaining bullish targets, short-term trading could still be affected by broader market volatility. For now, however, brokerage firms including Piper Sandler, BTIG, and Mizuho continue to argue that Robinhood’s international expansion, growing crypto business, and investment in AI technology provide a favorable foundation for further growth in the months ahead.

Key Highlights

• Aave V3 protocol deploys comprehensive lending infrastructure on Monad Network supporting a dozen digital assets.
• Native GHO stablecoin becomes available on Monad for enhanced borrowing capabilities and liquidity provision.
• $15 million liquidity incentive program launched by Monad Foundation for first-year ecosystem growth.
• Chainlink Smart Value Recapture technology integrated to redirect liquidation proceeds to protocol treasury.
• Strategic deployment positions Monad as emerging DeFi hub with plans for tokenized asset integration.

The decentralized finance landscape has expanded as Aave deployed its V3 lending protocol on the Monad Layer 1 blockchain. This integration delivers comprehensive lending and borrowing capabilities through a dozen supported digital assets while introducing GHO stablecoin functionality to the network. The deployment incorporates Chainlink’s Smart Value Recapture mechanism from the outset.

Comprehensive Lending Platform Arrives on Monad

The Aave V3 deployment on Monad includes support for USDT0, USDC, GHO, USDe, mUSD, AUSD, WETH, and cbBTC at the initial launch phase. Additional assets including wstETH, weETH, syrupUSDC and sUSDe round out the initial offering. This diverse selection provides network participants with extensive options for borrowing activities, yield generation, and collateral deployment immediately upon launch.

This strategic expansion broadens Aave’s presence across multiple blockchain ecosystems while simultaneously reinforcing Monad’s nascent decentralized finance infrastructure. Development teams gain immediate access to battle-tested lending mechanisms. Monad’s compatibility with Ethereum development standards enables seamless deployment of Solidity-based smart contracts with minimal modifications required.

Aave‘s implementation includes Chainlink Smart Value Recapture functionality activated at launch. This innovative feature channels a portion of liquidation-derived value directly back to protocol reserves. Consequently, the deployment delivers both enhanced liquidity infrastructure and sophisticated protocol revenue mechanisms.

Strategic Incentive Program Targets Early Adoption

Monad Foundation has pledged $15 million in incentive allocations during the inaugural year following Aave’s deployment. Additionally, the foundation committed to purchasing and maintaining 10 million GHO tokens for a minimum six-month duration. Aave DAO supplemented this initiative with an additional 500,000 GHO allocation designated for user engagement.

These financial commitments target initial liquidity establishment and stimulate borrowing demand during the critical early phase. Nevertheless, long-term platform viability depends on organic activity levels once incentive programs diminish. Monad requires genuine market participation beyond superficial total value locked metrics.

The Monad mainnet and MON token officially launched on November 24, 2025. By early June, network statistics indicated approximately $359.5 million in aggregate value locked across protocols. LlamaRisk provided assessment support for the Aave deployment while advocating conservative initial parameter settings given Monad’s limited operational track record.

Stablecoin Expansion Aligns with Tokenized Asset Momentum

GHO’s integration on Monad represents another milestone in Aave’s native stablecoin distribution strategy across diverse blockchain networks. The digital currency previously expanded operations to Base and Arbitrum networks following its 2023 introduction. Within the Monad ecosystem, GHO facilitates borrowing mechanisms, liquidity provision, and broader stablecoin utility throughout Aave markets.

This deployment coincides with accelerating interest in tokenized real-world assets within decentralized finance protocols. Centrifuge previously announced intentions to introduce tokenized Treasury securities, private credit instruments, and AAA-rated collateralized loan obligations to Monad. These asset categories could underpin sophisticated lending markets and collateral frameworks as the ecosystem matures.

Standard Chartered projects substantial expansion in decentralized finance asset valuations approaching 2030. The financial institution identified tokenized real-world assets and crypto-native demand as primary growth catalysts. Aave’s presence on Monad establishes a proven infrastructure foundation for anticipated future lending activity.

Michael Saylor has highlighted that Strategy’s open interest-to-market-cap ratio has climbed to nearly 72%, far exceeding the levels seen across the largest U.S. technology stocks as MSTR rebounds above $100 alongside Bitcoin’s recovery.

According to a July 2 X post by Strategy co-founder Michael Saylor, MSTR currently carries an open interest-to-market-cap ratio of almost 72%, making it the highest among the companies he compared.

Tesla ranked a distant second at 16%, followed by Meta at 11%, Microsoft at 6.1%, Nvidia at 5.8%, Amazon at 4.4%, Alphabet at 4.2%, and Apple at 3.2%. The comparison comes as investors increase activity around the Bitcoin-focused stock after its recent rebound.

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Heavy derivatives positioning has outpaced Big Tech peers

Open interest measures the total number of outstanding derivatives contracts tied to a stock. A high open interest-to-market-cap ratio points to unusually large positioning relative to the company’s size, although the metric alone does not indicate whether traders are betting on gains or losses because it includes both long and short positions.

Recent price action has coincided with the elevated derivatives activity. Yahoo Finance data showed MSTR rising to an intraday high of about $104 after reclaiming the psychologically important $100 level. The stock gained more than 10% during the session and has climbed over 23% from its recent low near $82 over the past five trading days. Even after the rebound, however, MSTR remains down more than 37% over the last six months.

The recovery in Strategy shares came as Bitcoin briefly traded above $62,000 after weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data improved sentiment across risk assets. Other crypto-linked equities, including Coinbase, Robinhood, Marathon Digital, the iShares Bitcoin Trust, and Hut 8, also recorded notable gains during the session.

Wall Street still sees Bitcoin strength despite lower Strategy targets

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan pointed to Strategy’s valuation as one of the indicators worth monitoring as investors search for signs that Bitcoin may be approaching a market bottom.

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In his latest memo, Hougan wrote that MSTR trading at a discount to its net asset value would be one of the few signals to watch while also discussing Strategy’s recently introduced digital credit framework, under which the company could sell up to $1.25 billion worth of Bitcoin.

Hougan argued that institutional investors are likely to overtake Strategy as the largest buyers of Bitcoin over time. At the same time, he maintained that the company is unlikely to become a forced seller because, in his view, no mechanism currently exists that would require it to liquidate large portions of its Bitcoin holdings.

Commenting on the current weakness in Strategy’s securities, Hougan described the decline in MSTR and STRC as part of Bitcoin’s cyclical process rather than an isolated event.

“This is a painful but necessary part of the current crypto market cycle, as it is with all cycles.”

Wall Street analysts have nevertheless become more cautious on Strategy’s stock valuation. As previously reported by crypto.news, Canaccord lowered its price target on the company to $130 from $163, attributing the revision to Strategy’s prolonged share price decline rather than any change in its long-term Bitcoin outlook. The brokerage said its investment thesis for Bitcoin remains intact despite the lower target.

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The Canaccord revision followed another recent adjustment by TD Cowen, which cut its Strategy price target to $260 from $400 while maintaining its Buy rating, indicating that although valuation expectations have been reduced, some analysts continue to back the company’s long-term exposure to Bitcoin.

BlackRock-backed Securitize has become the first newly public company to tokenize its own common stock on the same day it began trading on the New York Stock Exchange.

According to Securitize, the company has launched tokenized versions of its NYSE-listed common stock under the ticker SECZ on the Solana and Avalanche blockchains. Eligible U.S. investors can access the tokenized shares through the firm’s regulated platform, while the stock itself trades publicly on the NYSE following the completion of its business combination with Cantor Equity Partners II.

The company stated that shareholder participation has already made tokenized SECZ the largest tokenized stock globally. It added that bringing its own equity onchain from the first day of public trading demonstrates the regulated infrastructure it has spent years building for tokenized securities.

Tokenized SECZ represents the same NYSE-listed shares

According to Securitize, the blockchain-based SECZ tokens represent the same common stock that trades on the New York Stock Exchange rather than a separate class of shares. The company explained that tokenization changes only the ownership format, while shareholders remain subject to the same legal, contractual, and transfer restrictions that apply to the underlying stock.

Securitize also said it expects to establish an onchain shareholder base from the first day of trading, with additional functionality and market infrastructure expected to develop as regulated tokenized securities continue to mature.

The listing follows shareholder approval of Securitize’s merger with Cantor Equity Partners II. As previously reported by crypto.news, fewer than 30% of the special purpose acquisition company’s shareholders redeemed their shares, leaving more than 71% of the trust intact before the transaction closed.

Last week, Securitize said the deal is expected to generate about $400 million in gross proceeds, including proceeds from related private investment in public equity financing and excluding transaction costs. Crypto.news previously reported that the financing included an oversubscribed $225 million private investment round.

Shares of SECZ climbed by more than 10% during their first trading session, reaching above $12, according to Yahoo Finance. The gains came as Bitcoin rebounded to around $62,000, lifting several publicly traded crypto-related companies alongside the wider digital asset market.

Expansion continues beyond tokenized money market funds

Securitize’s latest move comes as the company continues expanding its tokenized asset offerings beyond money market funds. As previously reported by crypto.news, Ethena Labs plans to allocate $250 million to Securitize’s tokenized AAA-rated collateralized loan obligation fund after the product expanded to Solana.

According to crypto.news, the fund invests in U.S. dollar-denominated AAA-rated collateralized loan obligation tranches, with BNY serving as custodian of the underlying assets and acting as sub-adviser through BNY Investments.

The company has consistently stated that traditional financial assets will increasingly move onto blockchain networks through regulated, issuer-sponsored platforms. By placing its own publicly traded shares onchain at listing, Securitize is applying that approach to its own equity instead of limiting tokenization to third-party assets.

Interest in tokenized traditional financial products has also continued to grow across the asset management industry. As previously reported by crypto.news, firms including BlackRock and Franklin Templeton have expanded their presence in tokenized money market funds, adding momentum to the use of blockchain infrastructure for regulated financial products.

Securitize entered the public market with an onchain push that ties its NYSE debut to tokenized equity. The BlackRock-backed platform tokenized its common stock, SECZ, on Solana and Avalanche as trading began. The move also came as crypto-linked stocks rallied, while Bitcoin recovered to the $62,000 level.

Securitize Brings SECZ Shares Onchain

Securitize launched its tokenized common stock on the same day it listed on the New York Stock Exchange. The company trades under the ticker SECZ after completing its merger process with Cantor Equity Partners II. Therefore, the listing gives the tokenization firm a public-market platform and an onchain equity structure together.

The company made tokenized SECZ available to eligible U.S. users through its regulated platform. It selected Solana and Avalanche for the initial rollout, giving the stock exposure across two major blockchain networks. However, the company said the tokenized version represents the same common stock listed on the NYSE.

Securitize has long built its business around regulated tokenized assets and issuer-led market infrastructure. The company has supported tokenized funds and real-world asset products across public blockchains. As a result, its own stock tokenization marks a direct test of the model it promotes.

Tokenized Stock Keeps The Same Share Rights

Securitize said the tokenized SECZ does not create a separate share class or change the underlying stock. Instead, tokenization changes the form of ownership while the traditional share remains the same. Therefore, legal limits, transfer rules, and contractual restrictions still apply to the equity.

The company expects the launch to create an onchain shareholder base from its first day as a public firm. It also expects future market tools and utility to develop around the tokenized shares. However, the current rollout focuses on regulated access and direct representation of listed common stock.

The launch adds fresh context to the wider tokenization market, which has gained stronger institutional interest. Asset managers and blockchain firms have moved more bonds, funds, and securities onto digital rails. Consequently, Securitize’s public listing places tokenized equity closer to mainstream market infrastructure.

SECZ Stock Rises As Crypto Market Rebounds

SECZ gained more than 10% during its first trading session, according to TradingView data cited in the report. The stock traded near $12 as broader crypto-linked equities also advanced. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s rebound to around $62,000 helped improve sentiment across the digital asset sector.

The rally followed a stronger session for several companies connected to crypto markets and blockchain infrastructure. Securitize benefited from its public debut and its tokenization announcement on the same day. Moreover, the BlackRock connection added further attention to the company’s market entrance.

The debut also arrived after Cantor Equity Partners II shareholders approved the merger that allowed the listing. That approval cleared the path for Securitize to enter public markets through the transaction. Now, the company has positioned SECZ as both an NYSE-listed stock and a regulated onchain equity product.

Japanese investment company Metaplanet acquired 2,823 Bitcoin during the second quarter at a price below its average purchase price, as its holdings surpassed 43,000 BTC.

The company acquired its latest trove at an average price of about 12.71 million yen ($78,850 at current exchange rates), reducing its average acquisition cost to about $95,117 per BTC from $96,258, according to a Thursday announcement.

Metaplanet now holds 43,000 Bitcoin acquired for about $4.1 billion. It also reported about $10.95 million in revenue from its Bitcoin income generation strategy in the quarter, which earns premiums by selling cash-secured options and employing other Bitcoin-related yield strategies.

The purchase extends Metaplanet’s aggressive accumulation strategy, which has made the company one of the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holders. The acquisition comes days after Michael Saylor’s Strategy, the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder, skipped its usual weekly Bitcoin purchase while unveiling a new capital framework designed to support dividends and expand its cash reserves.

Metaplanet Notice of Additional Bitcoin Purchase. Source: Metaplanet

Metaplanet shares closed 3.5% higher on Thursday but remain down 48% year-to-date, underperforming Bitcoin, which has fallen 31% over the same period.

K Wave latest company to exit Bitcoin treasury strategy

While companies such as Metaplanet continue buying more Bitcoin, a handful of treasury companies are scaling back their exposure.

Nasdaq-listed South Korean company K Wave Media sold its remaining 88 BTC to repay $6 million in debt, exiting the Bitcoin treasury strategy, according to a Tuesday filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission.

K Wave Media, FORM F-3 filing. Source: SEC.gov

The move marked a sharp reversal as the company previously announced plans to expand its holdings to 10,000 BTC after securing $1 billion in capital capacity to drive its Bitcoin treasury strategy in July 2025.

Related: Swan’s Cory Klippsten sees record Bitcoin holder supply revealing early bottom

On May 28, France-based semiconductor company Sequans Communications said it would monetize its remaining Bitcoin holdings over time. The company held 658 BTC at the time, and its shares rose about 14.5% following the announcement.

Magazine: Bitcoin, the ‘canary in the coal mine,’ XRP transaction demand falls 91.5%: Market Moves 

Key takeaways:

• Soft US jobs market data triggered a rotation of capital from overheated AI stocks into Bitcoin and gold.
• Bitcoin onchain indicators hint at seller exhaustion while the decline in oil prices opens room for monetary expansion.

Bitcoin reclaimed the $61,000 mark following a disappointing US job market report. Traders grew less certain of a near-term interest rate hike from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) given the worsening labor data. The tech-heavy Nasdaq index sold off, fueling hopes of a capital rotation favoring Bitcoin.

Nasdaq 100 Index futures (blue) vs. Bitcoin/USD (orange). Source: TradingView

The Nasdaq 100 Index erased gains from the three prior days, while Bitcoin distanced itself from Wednesday’s $57,750 low. US non-farm payrolls increased by only 57,000 in June, missing the 113,000 expected, according to Yahoo Finance. The US Labor Department also revised data for April and May downward by 74,000 jobs.

Gold prices reacted positively on Thursday, hinting at potential bullish momentum for scarce assets. The weak economic data prompted investors to cut odds of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes by September to 54% from 64% the prior day, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, crude WTI oil prices stabilized below $70, opening the door for possible economic stimulus measures

Gold/USD (red) vs. Crude WTI oil (teal). Source: TradingView

Oil prices dropped after the Qatar Foreign Ministry cited “positive progress” in the latest round of discussions between US and Iranian representatives on Wednesday. Gold recovered some of the 8% losses accumulated over the prior two weeks, a possible sign that investors anticipate a less tight monetary policy and further FED balance sheet expansion.

US Federal Reserve total assets, USD millions. Source: FED St Louis

The Federal Reserve balance sheet stagnated at $6.73 trillion, although its mandate allows for $40 billion monthly purchases in short-term Treasuries and bonds. Weak job market data and reduced inflationary pressure are widely seen as catalysts for accelerated liquidity injection, creating incentives to invest in scarce assets, including gold and Bitcoin.

Overheated AI stocks clash with Bitcoin flashing a bottom

Weakness in the AI sector, especially among chipmakers, has led traders to anticipate capital shifting toward alternative assets. Shares of SanDisk, Seagate, Western Digital, and Applied Materials saw intraday losses of 9% or higher on Thursday. In contrast, Bitcoin is showing signs of seller exhaustion two months after rejection at $82,500.

Related: Bitcoin tops $60K amid Fed inflation talks–Is bull trap or $65K next?

Source: X/gaah_im

Onchain analyst and CryptoQuant author gaah_im said that Bitcoin’s realized profit-to-loss ratio has hit its lowest level since 2022. The net percentage of supply in profit relative to the total supply has turned negative, which historically has marked cycle bottoms with “extreme precision,” according to the analyst. In essence, onchain data hints at further Bitcoin upside.

Part of Bitcoin’s recent weakness stems from traders’ disappointment with Strategy. Despite a healthy 8% net leverage and $56.8 billion in enterprise value, holders faced dilution from accelerated MSTR share issuance used to buy back some debt and cover dividends on preferred stocks.

If weakness in the AI sector accelerates, some of that money will likely rotate into gold and Bitcoin, making a near-term recovery to $70,000 possible.