Crypto World
Bitcoin Dominance Tests Key Support: Is the Long-Awaited Altcoin Season Finally Near?
Bitcoin (BTC) dominance currently trades at 58.55% and tests the floor of a range that has held since August 2025. A confirmed breakdown would target 55.5%, the level many traders link to the start of a broad altcoin rotation.
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index sits predominantly in Extreme Fear recently, while the Altcoin Season Index remains neutral at 45. BeInCrypto reviews the weekly and daily BTC.D charts to assess whether the long-awaited altcoin season is finally near.
Bitcoin Dominance Breaks Its Multi-Year Uptrend
The weekly chart shows a long-term ascending parallel channel that dates back to late 2022. Bitcoin dominance broke down from this structure in August 2025, ending a multi-year uptrend. The breakdown initiated a sideways period that lasted until April 2026.
In May 2026, the metric rallied back to resistance near 61% and faced a firm rejection. BeInCrypto flagged this area when dominance first broke above 60% in April. BTC.D now trades back inside the former range, below the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement at 59.63%.
The Fibonacci ladder points to downside targets at 55.66%, 52.44%, and 49.23%. A popular trader on X shared a similar roadmap, calling 55% the trigger level for altcoin moves and 46.74% his final target. His last level sits lower because he anchors the retracement differently.
Daily Chart Points to a 55.5% Breakdown Target
Zooming in, the daily chart reveals a horizontal parallel channel between roughly 58% and 60.75% that also goes back to August 2025. Dominance now sits on the channel floor and tests a potential bearish breakdown.
Moreover, an ascending trendline from the September 2025 low broke down in June 2026. BTC.D retested the line as resistance in late June and turned lower. The failed retest adds a third bearish signal and pressures the relative position of altcoins, which have trailed Bitcoin since 2020.
If the channel gives way, the measured target sits near 55.5%. This projection converges with the weekly 0.382 Fibonacci support at 55.66%, creating a strong confluence zone. However, the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) grinds higher near 40 and remains neutral, so the move still needs confirmation.
Extreme Fear Meets a Neutral Altcoin Season Index
Sentiment adds a contrarian layer to the technical picture. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index printed 19 while Bitcoin still hovered between $60,000 and $61,000, up from 11 July 1, and 12 last week. The gauge has spent a full month in Extreme Fear after June’s correction, driven by a hawkish Fed, geopolitical tensions, and record ETF outflows.
Historically, prolonged readings below 20 have clustered near market bottoms. The index hit a record low of five in February 2026.
Meanwhile, the Altcoin Season Index from BlockchainCenter stands at 45, almost exactly halfway between Bitcoin season and altcoin season. The index flags altseason only when 75% of the top 50 coins beat Bitcoin over 90 days.
No true altcoin season has arrived since the current dominance structure formed in late 2022. Some experts argue the rotation cannot start until global liquidity expands again.
Bitcoin trades near $61,616, up 2.4% in the last 24 hours, according to CoinGecko. For altcoin holders, the setup remains binary. A weekly close below 55.66% would validate the rotation thesis, while a reclaim of 59.63% would keep capital parked in Bitcoin.
The post Bitcoin Dominance Tests Key Support: Is the Long-Awaited Altcoin Season Finally Near? appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Crypto World
The End of Blockchain Silos: Why the Future of Web3 Is Interoperable
Blockchain technology has evolved rapidly over the past decade, giving rise to hundreds of networks optimized for different use cases. Some prioritize speed, others focus on security, privacy, scalability, or specialized applications like gaming and decentralized finance (DeFi). While this diversity has fueled innovation, it has also created one of Web3’s biggest challenges: blockchain silos.
Today, the industry is moving toward a future where blockchains no longer operate as isolated ecosystems. Instead, they’re becoming interconnected networks that can communicate, exchange assets, and share data seamlessly. This shift could redefine how decentralized applications (dApps), users, and institutions interact with blockchain technology.
What Are Blockchain Silos?
A blockchain silo exists when a network operates independently without native communication with other blockchains. Assets, data, and smart contracts remain confined to their respective ecosystems.
For example:
- Bitcoin primarily serves as a secure store of value.
- Ethereum powers a vast ecosystem of smart contracts.
- Solana focuses on high-speed transactions.
- BNB Chain emphasizes affordable and scalable DeFi.
- Avalanche offers customizable blockchain infrastructure.
Each blockchain has unique strengths, but moving assets or information between them has traditionally required third-party bridges or centralized exchanges.
This fragmentation often creates unnecessary complexity for users and developers alike.
The Problems Caused by Blockchain Silos
1. Fragmented Liquidity
Liquidity scattered across multiple blockchains reduces capital efficiency. Instead of one unified financial ecosystem, liquidity is divided among separate networks, making markets less efficient.
2. Poor User Experience
Managing several wallets, switching networks, paying different gas fees, and learning multiple interfaces discourages mainstream adoption.
3. Limited Application Potential
Developers often build applications for a single blockchain, restricting access to users and liquidity from other ecosystems.
4. Security Risks
Traditional cross-chain bridges have become attractive targets for hackers. Billions of dollars have been lost through bridge exploits over the past several years, highlighting the need for more secure interoperability solutions.
The Rise of Blockchain Interoperability
Instead of competing in isolation, blockchain ecosystems are increasingly embracing interoperability—the ability for different blockchains to communicate securely.
Modern interoperability solutions aim to allow:
- Cross-chain asset transfers
- Cross-chain messaging
- Shared liquidity
- Multi-chain smart contract execution
- Unified user experiences
Rather than forcing users to choose one blockchain, interoperability allows them to benefit from many simultaneously.
Technologies Driving the End of Silos
Cross-Chain Messaging
Instead of merely transferring tokens, cross-chain messaging enables smart contracts on one blockchain to trigger actions on another.
This opens the door to far more sophisticated decentralized applications.
Interoperability Protocols
Dedicated interoperability layers provide standardized communication between independent blockchains.
These protocols reduce fragmentation while allowing each network to maintain its own security and governance.
Chain Abstraction
One of the biggest emerging trends is chain abstraction.
Instead of asking users to manually manage networks, wallets, bridges, and gas tokens, applications handle the complexity behind the scenes.
Users simply interact with the application while the infrastructure determines the optimal blockchain for each transaction.
Intent-Based Architecture
Intent-based systems allow users to specify their desired outcome rather than manually executing every blockchain interaction.
For example:
Instead of bridging tokens, swapping assets, and staking manually, a user simply requests:
“Stake my stablecoins in the highest-yield lending protocol.”
The protocol automatically completes every required cross-chain action.
Benefits of an Interoperable Future
Better Capital Efficiency
Assets can move freely across ecosystems, creating deeper liquidity and more efficient markets.
Improved User Experience
Users no longer need to understand every blockchain’s technical details. Applications become as simple as traditional fintech apps.
More Powerful Applications
Developers gain access to users, assets, and services across multiple chains, enabling richer decentralized applications.
Greater Ecosystem Collaboration
Instead of competing for users, blockchain networks can specialize while remaining connected through shared infrastructure.
Challenges That Still Need Solving
Although interoperability has advanced significantly, several challenges remain.
Security
Cross-chain infrastructure must maintain strong security guarantees without introducing centralized trust assumptions.
Standardization
The industry still lacks universal standards for messaging, identity, and asset transfers across every blockchain.
Scalability
As interoperability grows, systems must efficiently process increasing volumes of cross-chain communication.
Governance
Coordinating upgrades across multiple decentralized ecosystems remains a complex challenge.
What This Means for DeFi
The end of blockchain silos could dramatically reshape decentralized finance.
Future DeFi platforms may automatically source liquidity from multiple chains, optimize yields across ecosystems, and execute transactions wherever conditions are most favorable—all without requiring users to manually bridge assets or switch networks.
This could make decentralized finance significantly more accessible to everyday users while improving efficiency for institutional participants.
Beyond DeFi: A Unified Web3
Interoperability extends far beyond finance.
Potential applications include:
- Cross-chain gaming assets
- Portable digital identities
- Interoperable NFTs
- Multi-chain DAOs
- Unified social networks
- Enterprise blockchain integration
- AI agents coordinating across decentralized ecosystems
Rather than existing as separate blockchain islands, these services could operate within one connected Web3 ecosystem.
Conclusion
The next phase of blockchain evolution isn’t about finding a single “winning” blockchain—it’s about enabling all blockchains to work together.
As interoperability protocols, chain abstraction, and intent-based systems mature, users may no longer need to think about which blockchain they’re using. Just as internet users rarely consider which servers deliver a website, future Web3 users may simply interact with applications while the underlying infrastructure seamlessly coordinates across multiple networks.
The end of blockchain silos represents more than a technical milestone. It marks the transition from isolated blockchain ecosystems to a truly interconnected decentralized internet—one where assets, applications, and information flow freely across networks, unlocking the full potential of Web3.
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Crypto World
Polymarket’s U.S. ban fails to stop political betting: report
U.S.-linked wallets appear to be the largest political trading group on Polymarket’s global platform, even though the platform lists the United States as a blocked country.
Summary
- U.S.-linked wallets dominate Polymarket political trading despite geoblocks, according to new Allium on-chain research findings.
- Researchers say offshore activity raises fresh oversight questions as prediction markets face tougher global controls.
- Polymarket restrictions list the United States as blocked, but demand appears to continue offshore globally.
Blockchain data firm Allium said in a July 3 report that the U.S. was the biggest national political market by contracts traded among wallets it could link to a country.
The firm said its data covered only about 6% of wallets with country tags, so the results should be treated as directional. Still, Allium said the pattern was clear enough to show that US demand did not disappear after access blocks. “Blocking access did not end U.S. participation,” the report said. It added that activity had moved offshore and outside direct U.S. oversight.
Geoblocks face fresh questions
Polymarket’s own geographic restriction page says the platform is unavailable in the United States and other blocked countries. It also says users must not use VPNs or similar tools to bypass location rules. The page lists 33 fully blocked countries, along with several regions where trading is not allowed.
That policy traces back to earlier U.S. enforcement. In 2022, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission ordered Polymarket to pay a $1.4 million civil penalty and wind down markets that did not comply with US rules. The platform later developed a separate U.S.-regulated product, while the global platform continued to block U.S. users.
Trading patterns point to politics and conflict
Allium said U.S.-linked wallets on Polymarket showed more interest in foreign conflict markets than the wider platform. Five of the top 12 markets by notional volume for the U.S.-linked group related to the Iran war, according to the report. “U.S. money pours into foreign wars,” Allium said, while adding that U.S.-linked traders showed less interest in election markets.
A separate analysis by Rutgers statistician Harry Crane reached a similar view in June. Crane estimated that U.S. users may account for about 30% of total Polymarket volume by studying sports preferences and trading times. His work said Polymarket’s activity pattern looked global, but still showed a large U.S. share.
Rules tighten as markets grow
The report comes as prediction markets face wider regulatory pressure. As crypto.news reported, the CFTC is preparing new prediction market rules that could affect Polymarket and Kalshi. The proposed review process would give regulators more tools to assess event contracts tied to politics, sports, and real-world events.
Previously, crypto.news reported that Spain moved to block Polymarket and Kalshi over gambling license concerns. That action followed similar blocks or restrictions in several other countries. As crypto.news reported in May, Polymarket also said it had no plan to require mandatory KYC on its main global market, even as legal and sanctions pressure increased.
The latest Allium report adds a new point to that debate. If U.S. users still reach global markets despite geoblocks, regulators may ask whether location controls can work at scale. For Polymarket, the data may add pressure at a time when the platform is also dealing with security concerns, including a recent $2.9 million frontend theft that led to promised user refunds.
The issue also puts Polymarket’s split model under closer review. Its U.S.-regulated platform offers a narrower product set, while global markets still draw interest from users who appear to be in blocked regions. That gap may become harder to defend if more data show steady activity from restricted jurisdictions.
Crypto World
US Leads Polymarket Political Betting as Geoblock Fails to Halt Demand
US users remain the most active force behind Polymarket’s political prediction markets, even after the platform moved to geoblock Americans from its global, decentralized service. New analysis from blockchain research firm Allium finds that the United States is the largest single country for political contracts on Polymarket when measured by trading volume and wallet participation—suggesting the demand simply shifted outside formal US oversight.
The findings add another layer to the regulatory and compliance challenges surrounding Polymarket, which has already faced scrutiny from US authorities and was compelled to restrict access under a settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in 2022.
Key takeaways
- Allium’s report ranks the US as Polymarket’s biggest political market by both contracts traded and wallet count.
- Despite access restrictions, the study argues that US demand did not disappear—it moved offshore.
- US traders appear more drawn to foreign conflict-related markets, with Iran-war themes dominating the top US markets by volume.
- Election-focused markets attract less US participation on the global Polymarket, where such markets are comparatively more prominent on Kalshi and Polymarket US.
- Independent research has previously estimated a large share of Polymarket activity originates from the US, even with geoblocking and VPN countermeasures.
US activity persists after Polymarket’s geoblock
Allium’s analysis, published on Thursday, estimates that US-based users form the largest single political crowd on Polymarket across all countries it tracks. The report emphasizes that this is based on tagged wallets—specifically, the 6% of wallets Allium could associate with a country—so the figures are directional rather than definitive.
Still, Allium frames the result as a clear outcome of Polymarket’s restrictions. Blocking access, the firm argues, did not stop US participation; instead, it concentrated it into a way that makes the US look even larger by volume within the offshore-access model.
“Blocking access did not end US participation; it made the US the largest single political market on Polymarket by volume,” the report said. “The demand is still there, now offshore and beyond US oversight.”
This is an important distinction for investors and market participants watching the political prediction market space: the restriction regime may be affecting where and how US users participate, but it has not eliminated US influence over global outcome bets.
Foreign conflict markets draw more US bets than elections
Allium’s breakdown suggests that US participants disproportionately favor foreign conflict-related topics. In the report’s assessment, five of the top 12 markets for US users by notional volume relate to the Iran war.
At the same time, US interest in election-related markets appears comparatively weaker on Polymarket’s global platform. Allium notes that election markets are a category that is allowed on Kalshi and Polymarket US—meaning the global audience’s incentives and the market landscape may differ from what US users most actively trade.
“US money pours into foreign wars, lately Iran, and largely skips the elections the global crowd trades,” said Allium.
For readers tracking adoption and behavior in prediction markets, the takeaway is not just who is trading, but what they are trading. If US demand continues to show up most strongly in geopolitical risk and away from election positioning, that may shape how liquidity, volatility, and information demand evolve across the different platforms.
Polymarket US vs. the global platform: restrictions and regulatory pressure
Allium’s report also clarifies an often-confused distinction: Polymarket US is a US-regulated platform launched in December and offers a narrower selection of markets. The research discussed here concerns the global Polymarket environment, where access was curtailed for US users.
Polymarket was forced to cut off US users from its global platform as part of a $1.4 million settlement with the CFTC in 2022. That enforcement backdrop has continued to cast a spotlight on how prediction market operators handle jurisdictional boundaries and user verification.
Cointelegraph previously reported that US policy makers and regulators have raised concerns about Polymarket, including issues connected to its marketing and compliance approach. Those broader concerns remain relevant in light of Allium’s findings that US involvement has not gone away—only changed form.
Evidence from other researchers: US share remains large
Allium’s results align with an earlier study by Rutgers University statistician Harry Crane. In a June publication, Crane estimated that 30% of Polymarket trading volume comes from the US, despite Polymarket blocking US-based IP addresses and VPNs that can be used to bypass geofencing.
Crane’s analysis estimated that US-based traders sent between $10.6 billion and $26.7 billion through Polymarket between May 2025 and April 2026. The researcher tied activity to likely US participants by comparing trade timing and the specific markets where trades occurred.
There have also been reports that Polymarket has moved to clamp down on VPN usage by blocking certain IP addresses associated with VPN services, reinforcing the idea that the company is actively attempting to reduce circumvention. However, the existence of US-heavy participation in outcome bets—whether directly or via offshore access—suggests countermeasures may not be fully effective.
Where Polymarket is blocked and where it is “close only”
Geographic restrictions are not limited to the United States. Polymarket is completely blocked in more than 34 countries, with Spain cited as the latest example where authorities took action as a “precautionary measure” while investigating whether the companies are operating without necessary licensing.
In an additional tier, four countries—including Singapore, Thailand, Taiwan, and Poland—operate under “close only” rules. In those jurisdictions, users can close existing positions but cannot open new trades.
Polymarket also maintains restricted regions within countries, according to published information: Ontario in Canada, and Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk in Ukraine, where Polymarket is blocked locally but remains accessible elsewhere in the same nation.
These layers of access—complete blocks, close-only allowances, and region-level restrictions—highlight how uneven enforcement and licensing frameworks can be across jurisdictions. For traders, it means the practical reach of a prediction market can remain broader than what top-line policy statements might suggest.
Going forward, the key question is how Polymarket will adapt its geoblocking and compliance tooling as scrutiny grows. Readers should watch whether enforcement tightens enough to materially change participation patterns—or whether US influence continues to reappear offshore in ways that keep global political markets effectively driven by the same demand.
Crypto World
CFTC chair blasts Illinois over ‘punitive’ crypto tax
CFTC Chair Michael Selig criticized Illinois lawmakers over a new 0.2% tax on crypto transactions, saying the state had moved against financial technology at the wrong time.
Summary
- Illinois’ 0.2% crypto tax drew sharp CFTC criticism before its planned 2027 start date.
- The law requires broker registration, monthly reports, and tax collection on covered digital asset activity.
- Federal crypto tax and market structure talks are moving while Illinois pursues its own rule.
In a July 1 statement, Selig said Illinois lawmakers “slammed the brakes on technological progress” when they approved the measure.
The tax forms part of Illinois’ fiscal 2027 budget and is set to take effect on Jan. 1, 2027. It applies to certain digital asset activity carried out by brokers, including exchange, transfer, custody, and wallet services. The rule has drawn criticism from crypto firms, policy groups, and some market figures.
Selig says state risks falling behind
Selig said blockchains could change how value moves across markets, much as the internet changed how information moves. He argued that tokenized assets may cover commodities, currencies, stocks, and bonds. His statement said Illinois could place residents and businesses at a disadvantage if the state taxes crypto transfers differently from other financial activity.
The CFTC chair also said Illinois lawmakers “decided they know better” than federal lawmakers working on crypto market rules. His comments came as Washington continues to review market structure bills, tax proposals, and agency roles. The remarks show a growing split between state-level tax policy and federal efforts to set national digital asset rules.
Brokers face new duties
Illinois’ Digital Asset Tax Act requires brokers to register with the Illinois Department of Revenue before covered activity begins. Brokers must collect the tax as a separate line item and file monthly reports on covered digital asset activity.
The law can also reach firms outside Illinois if they serve users in the state. Tax advisers have said customer records, mailing addresses, IP addresses, and other data may help decide whether activity falls under Illinois rules. That has raised questions about how exchanges, wallet firms, and custody providers will track and apply the tax in practice.
Industry criticism grows
Previously, crypto.news reported that Strategy co-founder Michael Saylor called the Illinois tax a “Big Mistake” after Governor JB Pritzker signed the budget. Industry groups also warned that the law could raise costs for users and push crypto firms away from the state.
Some critics have focused on the design of the tax. They argue that it applies to activity itself, not only to profits or capital gains. Others have raised concerns about routine wallet transfers, broker reporting systems, and whether the rule treats digital assets differently from stocks, bonds, or derivatives.
Federal talks add pressure
The Illinois dispute comes while Congress reviews broader crypto tax rules. As previously reported, lawmakers have split the Digital Asset PARITY Act into seven tax discussion drafts covering stablecoin payments, mining, staking, lending, wash-sale rules, charitable donations, and disclosure duties.
Moreover, Federal agencies are also reviewing crypto market rules. The SEC and CFTC opened a joint rules review covering derivatives, margining, and market structure questions. Against that backdrop, Selig’s criticism frames the Illinois tax as a state-level move that may clash with wider federal attempts to build clearer rules for digital assets.
Crypto World
Microsoft Commits $2.5 Billion to New AI Deployment Business
Microsoft is investing $2.5 billion in a new operating business that embeds 6,000 engineers and industry experts directly inside enterprise customers to build and run AI systems.
The company, called Microsoft Frontier Company, launched on Thursday. It ties its work to measurable business results.
How the Microsoft Frontier Company Works and Who Runs It
The unit delivers what Microsoft calls Frontier Transformation. Experts embed with customers to co-design, deploy, and continuously improve AI systems at scale.
Follow us on X to get the latest news as it happens
Judson Althoff, CEO of Microsoft’s Commercial Business, positioned the effort beyond standard industry practice. He argued it combines deep industry knowledge with enterprise AI engineering.
“This goes beyond what has been labeled as Forward-Deployed Engineering, and will be the largest, most capable, outcome-driven engineering organization in the industry,” he said.
Microsoft Frontier Company will include salespeople, support staff, technical consultants, and forward-deployed engineers already at the company, many with experience in specific industries, CNBC reported.
The company stressed that customers keep control of their own intelligence. It pledged that client data will not be used to train models in ways that erode a customer’s competitive edge.
The platform also stays model-diverse. Customers can run models from OpenAI, Anthropic, Microsoft, open source, or specialized industry options for each task. Rodrigo Kede Lima will serve as president of the new organization.
Microsoft Enters a Crowded AI Deployment Race
The launch puts Microsoft in a fast-growing market. Rivals have moved quickly to sell hands-on AI deployment, not just tools.
Amazon Web Services committed $1 billion to its own deployment venture two days earlier. Both OpenAI and Anthropic also launched their own deployment ventures in May.
The OpenAI Deployment Company is a standalone entity backed by more than $4 billion in funding. Anthropic teamed up with Goldman Sachs, Blackstone, and Hellman & Friedman on a $1.5 billion venture to deploy Anthropic’s Claude AI model directly inside businesses.
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The post Microsoft Commits $2.5 Billion to New AI Deployment Business appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Crypto World
Binance moves ahead in Philippines as SEC clears BlockShoals sandbox testing
Binance has moved a step closer to returning to the Philippine market after the country’s Securities and Exchange Commission granted final approval for its local partner BlockShoals Technologies to begin regulatory sandbox testing.
Summary
- The Philippine SEC has granted final sandbox approval to BlockShoals, moving Binance closer to a regulated return to the local market.
- BlockShoals will complete a 90 day integration with a licensed local provider before Binance backed user onboarding begins.
- The approval covers SEC sandbox testing, while separate BSP licensing requirements for crypto services remain in place.
In a post on X, Binance co-founder and Chief Customer Service Officer Yi He said the exchange had officially entered the Philippine market, while an accompanying SEC document showed that BlockShoals Technologies Inc. had received final approval to launch financial product and service testing under the Commission’s Strategic Regulatory Sandbox (Stratbox) framework.
SEC approves sandbox rollout
Under the approval, BlockShoals will operate using a crypto-asset intermediary model that allows users in the Philippines to access selected products and services through its global crypto-asset service provider partner, Binance.
The SEC document stated that BlockShoals must first complete system integration with a local virtual asset service provider during an initial 90-day phase before proceeding with the approved testing program.
Once that integration is completed, the testing plan will move forward under regulatory oversight and applicable safeguards, including user registration and onboarding through Binance as its global CASP partner, according to the SEC approval.
The final approval follows the SEC’s earlier clearance of BlockShoals’ Stratbox application in November 2025, after the company fulfilled the remaining regulatory requirements set by the Commission.
BSP licensing question remains
The latest SEC approval comes weeks after the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas clarified that neither Binance nor BlockShoals currently holds a Virtual Asset Service Provider license required for certain crypto payment and transaction services.
As previously reported by crypto.news, the BSP said participation in the SEC’s Stratbox program does not replace the need for a separate central bank license because the two regulators oversee different parts of the country’s financial sector. The central bank also noted that BlockShoals would need to integrate with a licensed domestic VASP before onboarding users through Binance’s infrastructure could begin.
While Yi He described the development as Binance’s official entry into the Philippines, the SEC approval itself authorizes BlockShoals to begin sandbox testing and identifies Binance as its global CASP partner. The document does not state that Binance has obtained a Philippine VASP license.
Binance has been working to strengthen its regulatory position in several jurisdictions. On July 1, the exchange told affected European Union users that withdrawals and other account options would remain available as MiCA-related service changes took effect, while it continued pursuing authorization to operate under the bloc’s new crypto rules.
Crypto World
Will Bitcoin price continue uptrend or succumb once again to ETF outflows?
Bitcoin price has rebounded above $60,000 after easing oil prices and softer U.S. macro expectations lifted risk appetite, though persistent ETF outflows continue to threaten the recovery.
Summary
- Bitcoin price has reclaimed $60,000 as easing oil prices and improving macro sentiment triggered a relief rally.
- Persistent U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF outflows continue to weigh on institutional demand despite the rebound.
- Technical charts show room for further gains above $61,000, but failure to hold $60,000 could revive selling pressure.
According to data from crypto.news, Bitcoin (BTC) price climbed from a low near $58,300 to around $60,600 over the past 24 hours as investors responded to softer inflation expectations and improving sentiment across global markets.
Risk assets also benefited from progress in indirect U.S.-Iran talks, while Brent crude slipped below $71 a barrel after oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz accelerated and concerns over supply disruptions eased. Lower energy prices reduced inflation worries, giving cryptocurrencies room to recover after June’s sharp sell-off.
The rebound comes after one of Bitcoin’s weakest months in recent years. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded another $294.6 million in net outflows on July 1 after losing $222.6 million, $231.1 million and $444.5 million during the previous three sessions, extending a streak of institutional withdrawals that has removed billions of dollars from the sector in recent weeks. Those redemptions have continued to offset improving macro sentiment by forcing ETF issuers to sell underlying Bitcoin into the market.

Federal Reserve policy also remains a key obstacle. Although traders welcomed recent dovish remarks, interest rates remain elevated, and expectations for policy easing have been pushed further into the future. Higher Treasury yields continue to compete with non-yielding assets such as Bitcoin, while institutional capital has increasingly flowed toward U.S. technology and artificial intelligence stocks instead of digital assets.
Bitcoin must reclaim $62.7K and $65K to strengthen the recovery
Bitcoin’s 1-day chart shows price rebounding from the 100% Fibonacci retracement near $57,826 after briefly testing the lower boundary of a multi-month decline. The recovery has lifted RSI from deeply oversold territory to around 40, suggesting selling pressure has eased without yet confirming a trend reversal.

Even after reclaiming $60,000, Bitcoin continues to trade below all key moving averages clustered between roughly $62,400 and $75,100, leaving major resistance overhead.
The 4-hour chart paints a more constructive short-term picture. Bitcoin has reclaimed the Supertrend support near $57,700 while the Aroon Up reading has climbed above 78%, with Aroon Down slipping below 43%, suggesting buyers have regained short-term control after the late-June washout.

Bitcoin price has also returned above psychological support at $60,000, though sustained buying will still be needed to challenge resistance around $61,000 before the larger moving-average cluster comes into view.
Derivatives positioning shows traders remain heavily focused on nearby liquidation levels. CoinGlass’ 24-hour heatmap highlights dense short liquidation clusters between $61,000 and $61,800, suggesting a move through that range could accelerate buying as bearish positions are forced to close. On the downside, equally large long liquidation pockets sit around $59,500 and $58,000, creating potential downside magnets if Bitcoin loses its recent gains.

According to analyst Ted Pillows, the latest advance should still be treated cautiously.
“This is just a relief rally, which often happens after a 30% crash. Bitcoin’s key levels are $62,700 and $65,000, which must be reclaimed for another lower high before a new cycle low.”
Commenting on the shorter-term setup, analyst Altcoin Sherpa noted that Bitcoin looks constructive on lower time frames while price remains above current support, although he added that he would not feel confident until Bitcoin decisively breaks above $65,000 on higher-time-frame charts.
ETF selling and macro risks could quickly reverse the recovery
Several downside risks continue to threaten Bitcoin’s rebound. Continued spot ETF redemptions remain the most immediate concern, particularly if institutional demand fails to return after June’s record wave of outflows. Corporate developments have also weighed on sentiment after Strategy revised its capital policy to permit token sales, raising concerns that one of Bitcoin’s largest corporate holders could eventually add supply to the market.
Macro and geopolitical uncertainty also remain unresolved. While oil prices have retreated on improving U.S.-Iran negotiations, any disruption to talks or renewed tensions around the Strait of Hormuz could quickly push energy prices higher and revive inflation concerns.
On the technical side, failure to defend the $60,000 area would expose the $59,500 and $58,000 liquidation zones, while a break below June’s low near $57,800 would invalidate the current relief rally and reopen the path toward fresh cycle lows.
Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.
Crypto World
IMF warns tokenization could remake finance or fracture it
The International Monetary Fund has said tokenization could change how financial markets settle trades, manage payments, and record ownership.
Summary
- Tokenization can speed settlement, but weak standards may split liquidity across competing financial platforms worldwide.
- Major banks are testing tokenized deposits as regulated rails for faster institutional payment settlement systems.
- Regulators must define ownership, code oversight, and settlement finality before tokenized markets scale globally.
In a July 2 blog post, Tobias Adrian, the IMF’s financial counselor and director of the Monetary and Capital Markets Department, said policy choices made now will decide whether tokenized finance “strengthens or fragments” the financial system.
Adrian said tokenization is more than a tool for faster payments. It moves assets and liabilities onto shared digital ledgers, where execution, clearing, and settlement can happen at the same time. That could reduce delays in markets that still depend on separate systems, manual checks, and later reconciliation after trades close.
Faster markets bring new risks
The IMF said tokenization can make settlement faster and payments cheaper, but it can also change where risk sits. In traditional markets, delays give banks, brokers, and supervisors time to respond to errors or stress. In tokenized markets, smart contracts can move payments, collateral, and ownership within moments.
That speed can remove old buffers. Automated margin calls, instant redemptions, and 24/7 settlement could make liquidity needs appear faster than firms can manage them. Adrian warned that risk could move away from bank balance sheets and toward the platforms, code, and service providers that run tokenized markets.
Banks test tokenized settlement rails
The warning comes as large financial firms move tokenization deeper into regulated finance. As crypto.news reported, major U.S. banks are backing a tokenized deposit network through the Clearing House, with a launch targeted for the first half of 2027. The system would allow banks to settle tokenized deposits around the clock while keeping deposits inside the banking sector.
Recent market activity also shows that tokenization is spreading into securities. As previously reported, Securitize tokenized its own NYSE-listed shares on Solana and Avalanche on the day it began public trading. Ondo Finance also brought BlackRock’s IVV ETF and Micron shares onto Ethereum through a model designed to keep the underlying securities inside regulated U.S. custody.
Regulators weigh ownership and code oversight
The IMF said tokenized finance needs clear rules on settlement assets, platform governance, interoperability, and the role of central banks. It also said legal clarity matters because investors must know whether tokenized records prove ownership, whether settlement is final, and which court has authority when markets cross borders.
In the United States, regulators are already reviewing tokenized securities. As crypto.news reported, the SEC has explored an innovation exemption for tokenized securities that could let some blockchain-based products trade under tailored rules. Later, the agency reportedly delayed the proposal after exchanges raised questions about shareholder rights and ownership verification.
The IMF’s message adds a global policy layer to that debate. Faster settlement may improve market systems, but weak standards could split liquidity across competing platforms. If tokenized assets move across borders in real time, supervisors may also have less time to respond during stress.
Adrian said central banks, regulators, and market operators must decide how tokenized finance should use public and private money. They must also decide how platforms should connect and how critical smart contracts should be supervised. Without common rules, tokenization may stay split across separate systems instead of becoming a safer settlement model for global finance.
Crypto World
US Wallets Top Polymarket Political Bets Despite Geoblock: Report
US-based users are the biggest political bettors on Polymarket, despite the crypto-based prediction market’s efforts to restrict US citizens from using the decentralized platform, according to new research.
Blockchain research firm Allium estimated in a report published on Thursday that US-based users are the single biggest political market of any country by contracts traded and wallet count on Polymarket — not to be confused with Polymarket US, which is a US-regulated platform that launched in December with a narrower set of markets.
“Blocking access did not end US participation; it made the US the largest single political market on Polymarket by volume,” the report said. “The demand is still there, now offshore and beyond US oversight.”
The data suggests that Polymarket’s efforts to restrict US users from its global platform have not entirely worked, adding to an expanding list of headaches for the company in the fast-growing predictions market sector, which is under legal and political scrutiny.
Polymarket was forced to cut off US users’ access to its global platform as part of a $1.4 million settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in 2022.

Allium based its figures on the 6% of wallets it tagged with a country, meaning the data should be seen as directional only. Source: Allium
Allium found that US users are more interested in foreign conflict-related markets than the rest of the platform’s users, with five of the US cohort’s top 12 markets by notional volume relating to the Iran war.
It also shows a lesser interest in election-related markets, which is a category of prediction markets allowed on Kalshi and Polymarket US.
“US money pours into foreign wars, lately Iran, and largely skips the elections the global crowd trades,” said Allium.
Cointelegraph contacted Polymarket for comment.
Polymarket’s effort to geoblock US users
Allium’s figures align with another study published in June by Rutgers University statistician Harry Crane, who estimated that 30% of trading volume on Polymarket comes from the US.
Crane estimated that people based in the US sent between $10.6 billion and $26.7 billion through Polymarket between May 2025 and April 2026, despite Polymarket blocking US-based IP addresses and VPNs, which could be used to skirt the block.
The researcher looked at the times of day the trades were made and the markets in which the trades were made to link certain trades to US users.

An excerpt of Polymarket’s FAQ page on its geographic restrictions. Source: Polymarket
Polymarket has reportedly been clamping down on users who use VPNs by blocking certain IP addresses tied to VPN services, The Information reported in May.
Related: Polymarket hit by $2.9M theft, users to be refunded
Where is Polymarket blocked?
Polymarket is completely blocked in more than 34 countries, the latest being Spain, which blocked local users from Polymarket and Kalshi as a “precautionary measure” as authorities open an investigation into whether the companies are operating without necessary licensing.
Another four countries, including Singapore, Thailand, Taiwan and Poland, are in “close only,” meaning users in these countries can close existing positions but cannot open new trades.
There are also four restricted regions, Ontario in Canada, Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk in Ukraine, where Polymarket is blocked but is available elsewhere in the country.
Magazine: Bitcoin slides to $58K, XRP hits $1 but onchain data promising: Market Moves
Crypto World
Solana Gets NYSE Boost as SOL Jumps 19% on Securitize Listing
Securitize became a publicly traded company on the New York Stock Exchange Thursday, July 2, immediately tokenizing its common stock on Solana (SOL).
The move lands alongside a separate governance shift on Solana, where validators gained a formal, stake-weighted voting process for protocol decisions. Both moves come as SOL posted strong gains, up 19.3% over the past week.
Securitize Brings Its NYSE Debut Onchain
Securitize completed its merger with Cantor Equity Partners II and opened trading on the NYSE under the ticker SECZ on Thursday. This is part of its broader tokenized asset expansion across multiple chains.
“We have long said that public equities are moving onchain”
— Carlos Domingo, Founder and CEO of Securitize
Blockchain data from RWA.xyz tracked roughly $295 million in tokenized SECZ shares at launch. Securitize said the tokens represent the same shares trading on the NYSE, not a synthetic wrapper.
Additionally, access is limited to eligible U.S. investors who pass identity checks.
Validators Gain a Formal Vote
Separately, the Solana Foundation activated Solana Governance Proposals on July 1. Ultimately letting validators with at least 100,000 staked SOL submit proposals.
The framework separates broad directional questions from the technical upgrades developers already handle. Furthermore, it lets individual delegators override their validator’s vote.
Together, the two developments show Solana courting institutional issuers and their own validator bases at once. Whether tokenized SECZ shares draw meaningful onchain trading volume will shape how far this new strategy goes.
The post Solana Gets NYSE Boost as SOL Jumps 19% on Securitize Listing appeared first on BeInCrypto.
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