Crypto World
Bitcoin May Dip Below $64K as Veteran Warns of ‘Campaign Selling’
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) extended its pullback, slipping more than 22.5% over the past week to hover around $69,000 as traders weigh supply and demand dynamics. The retreat follows a period in which miners and US spot BTC ETFs trimmed exposure, adding modest selling pressure to an already fragile downtrend. The market has shown little appetite for a rebound, underscoring how thin liquidity and cautious sentiment can magnify losses in a risk-off environment. On-chain data and fund flows paint a nuanced picture: distribution signals from large holders sit alongside episodes of fading demand, complicating bets on a swift recovery.
Key takeaways
- Campaign selling by institutions, particularly miner-related activity and ETF exposure reductions, is pressing BTC lower rather than providing a floor.
- A potential bottom zone remains visible in the $54,600–$55,000 area, but confirmation requires sustained demand and stabilizing on-chain metrics.
- On-chain data shows miners shifting toward net distribution, signaling that fresh supply is hitting the market as January closes.
- Bitcoin spot ETF balances have declined to about 1.27 million BTC, echoing cooled institutional exposure and a potential headwind for price recovery.
- Market indicators, including the Coinbase premium, have retreated to yearly lows, suggesting waning institutional interest in this phase of the cycle.
Tickers mentioned: $BTC
Sentiment: Bearish
Price impact: Negative. The combination of ongoing distribution by miners and reduced ETF exposure signals further near-term downside risk.
Trading idea (Not Financial Advice): Hold. The current setup implies caution until there are clearer signs of demand and a firmer base forming around key support zones.
Market context: The BTC move unfolds amid a broader risk-off environment and evolving ETF flows that continue to influence spot prices. With liquidity patterns tightening and macro uncertainty lingering, price action remains highly data-dependent, with on-chain signals and fund flows providing mixed signals about when a durable bottom might form.
Why it matters
The ongoing pressure on Bitcoin highlights how interlinked the crypto market has become with macro liquidity and institutional participation. As miners and spot ETFs pull back, the supply-demand balance tilts toward hodlers and short-term traders, potentially elevating the risk of sharper moves if selling accelerates. The situation underscores the importance of on-chain dynamics—especially miner behavior and exchange balances—in gauging how much selling pressure the market can absorb before a meaningful rebound takes hold. For participants watching risk, the dynamics around BTC’s supply chain—miner distributions and ETF outflows—remain a critical lens for assessing whether the market is merely digesting a correction or entering a more extended phase of weakness.
From a technical perspective, several indicators point to a challenging landscape ahead. Veteran analyst Peter L. Brandt has highlighted what he describes as “campaign selling”—a deliberate, sustained distribution by large institutions rather than a reflexive, retail-led decline. The observation aligns with an impairment of bid strength as price trends lower highs and lower lows. While this framing does not guarantee further downside, it does suggest that the near term could remain precarious absent a meaningful change in buying interest or a reinterpretation of macro catalysts. The price path toward potential targets, such as the bear-flag scenario around the $63,800 level and the broader zone near mid-$50,000s, remains a focal point for traders watching for a possible inflection.
On-chain temperature checks reinforce the sense of a market in flux. Data indicate that miners have shifted from a net accumulation posture to distribution in January, sending BTC toward exchanges. Such movements can amplify selling pressure if capitulation accelerates or if external demand does not step in to absorb the newly minted supply. This dynamic dovetails with the retreat in the Coinbase premium, a gauge closely watched for institutional appetite; the premium slipping to yearly lows implies that institutions may be pulling back from aggressive entry points that previously provided steadying support. The mix of on-chain distribution and weakened exchange inflows contributes to a narrative in which BTC could spend additional time testing support levels rather than staging a rapid rebound.
Two additional threads bear watching. First, the official balance of Bitcoin held by spot ETFs has continued to drift lower, with total BTC under management dipping to about 1.27 million as of the latest reads. Second, some analysts point to a possible longer-horizon accumulation window that could materialize later in the cycle—potentially around mid-2026—driven by timing dynamics in credit spreads and historical lag effects between price bottoms and accumulation phases. These lines of inquiry do not imply an imminent rally, but they offer a framework for understanding where and when demand might re-enter with more conviction. For context, historical analysis has surfaced instances where price convergences toward accumulation bands signaled times of capitulation followed by assertive recoveries, albeit on longer horizons than immediate, intraday moves.
Looking back, the market has shown that the path from capitulation to accumulation can be gradual. In 2022, for instance, BTC dipped into a zone near $20,000 before a bottom formed and a subsequent rally pushed prices higher in the following year. The current cadence—sliding into a zone around $54.6K as an accumulation signal emerges—has prompted some to suggest that the asset is nearing a decisive juncture: the point at which sellers exhaust and buyers begin to re-enter, setting the stage for a more sustained recovery if macro conditions improve and institutional participation returns.
As one analyst put it, the convergence toward a band signaling the start of the accumulation phase around $54.6K could indicate we are transitioning from capitulation to accumulation. Such a reading does not guarantee a reversal on the immediate horizon, but it frames a potential pause in the downtrend and a setup for a more deliberate, value-oriented accumulation once conditions improve. The broader framework also includes a comparative timing signal that some researchers say could push a renewed cycle of accumulation toward mid-2026, a view anchored in widening credit spreads and other macro timing data. Taken together, the signals suggest that investors should monitor rather than chase, awaiting more robust evidence of demand and a firmer foundation beneath prices.
Ultimately, the market’s sensitivity to institutional flows and on-chain movements means BTC’s fate remains tethered to the behavior of large players and the health of the broader liquidity environment. While there is recognition of potential relief points—whether from a stabilization around the $55k zone or a delayed uptick in ETFs’ appetite—the current configuration favors caution. For traders, the narrative remains one of careful risk management, waiting for clearer catalysts that could flip the narrative from bear to bull—or at least reduce the downside risk to a more manageable level.
What to watch next
- Watch BTC price behavior around the $54,600–$55,000 support zone for signs of accumulation or further breakdown.
- Monitor miner activity and distribution trends as January closes, weighing any shift back toward net accumulation against ongoing selling pressure.
- Track US spot BTC ETF balances for continued outflows or stabilization that could influence price direction.
- Observe the Coinbase premium and other institutional indicators for renewed appetite from large buyers.
- Follow commentary and data on the potential mid-2026 accumulation window linked to credit-spread timing and macro liquidity cycles.
Sources & verification
- Peter L. Brandt’s commentary on “campaign selling” and its implications for price structure (as discussed on X).
- On-chain signals showing miner net position change shifting toward distribution in January (Glassnode data).
- Bitcoin ETF balances and trends indicating reduced exposure among spot ETFs.
- Coinbase premium readings signaling shifts in institutional demand.
- Analyses projecting a potential accumulation window around mid-2026 based on credit-stress timing data.
Market reaction and near-term risks for BTC
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) faced a renewed test of support as miners and spot ETFs reduced their BTC exposure, intensifying near-term supply pressure in a market already sensitive to liquidity and macro cues. The price moving through the mid-to-lower $60k range would not be surprising if current distribution persists, particularly given a backdrop of subdued buying interest from institutions and cautious sentiment among traders. The bear-case scenario identified by technical observers centers on a continuation toward the bear-flag target around $63,800, a level that could become a catalyst for new momentum if sellers accumulate pressure without a compelling counterparty bid. Conversely, a stabilization near $55,000 could pave the way for a measured recovery if institutional demand returns and miners slow their distribution cycles.
In this context, the on-chain picture remains a critical barometer. Miners’ net position changes have shifted to a net outflow pattern in January, suggesting that fresh BTC supply is entering the market at a pace that could sustain pressure on prices near key supports. This dynamic aligns with a decline in spot ETF balances and a cooling of the Coinbase premium, both of which imply that institutional demand has yet to reassert itself with vigor. For traders, the combination of persistent distribution signals and softening buy-side signals means the price could hinge on the next wave of macro and liquidity catalysts—the kind of inputs that often determine whether a market tests lower supports or finds a foothold for a multi-week bounce.
At the same time, several analysts point to potential longer-term inflection opportunities. A subset of commentary highlights the possibility of an accumulation window emerging after mid-2026, tied to timing patterns around widening credit spreads and the historical cadence of BTC market bottoms. While such forecasts are inherently probabilistic, they offer a framework for considering how a cycle may pivot from capitulation to accumulation, even if the timing remains uncertain. For now, the dominant narrative remains one of vigilance: a phase in which buyers must demonstrate conviction and where the absence of a clear catalyst keeps risk balanced on the knife-edge between a renewed rally and a deeper drawdown.
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The petrodollar system, a global financial arrangement in which most international oil trade is priced and settled in US dollars, faces growing threats amid the US-Iran war.
Under this system, countries that import oil must hold US dollars to pay for it, creating a constant global demand for the currency and reinforcing its role as the world’s dominant reserve currency.
Petrodollar System Faces Mounting Pressure Amid Gulf Disruptions
According to The Wall Street Journal, the United Arab Emirates has initiated discussions with the United States over a potential financial safety net amid escalating risks from the Iran conflict.
Officials said Central Bank Governor Khaled Mohamed Balama raised the possibility of a currency swap line in meetings with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Federal Reserve officials in Washington.
The talks come as the conflict has disrupted Emirati energy infrastructure and constrained oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz, limiting dollar inflows.
While the UAE has not made a formal request, officials framed the discussions as precautionary. Nonetheless, they also noted that US military action against Iran “entangled their country in a destructive conflict whose effects may not be over.”
“Emirati officials told the US officials that if the UAE runs short of dollars, it may be forced to use Chinese yuan or other countries’ currencies for oil sales and other transactions, some of the officials said. In that scenario is an implicit threat to the US dollar, which reigns supreme among global currencies, partially because of its near-exclusive use in oil transactions,” the WSJ reported.
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In parallel, alternative settlement practices have already emerged. Reports indicated that, in early April, Iran was charging commercial vessels transit fees through the Strait of Hormuz in yuan.
“While it is unclear how many vessels have made payments in yuan, at least two had done so as of March 25,” Al Jazeera reported, citing Lloyd’s List.
Tehran had also signaled plans to extend these measures to digital assets, including levying Bitcoin-based tanker transit fees as part of a broader effort to bypass traditional financial channels.
All of these developments point to a growing structural threat to the petrodollar system. However, pressure on the system predates the current conflict.
Deutsche Bank noted that US sanctions on oil exports from Russia and Iran had already led to parallel trading networks that increasingly rely on non-dollar currencies, such as the Chinese yuan.
Yuan Shift Could Challenge Dollar’s Dominance
Previously, several experts raised concerns about the dollar’s dominance. Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio warned that failing to secure Hormuz could sharply raise the risks to the dollar’s reserve status.
Similarly, Balaji Srinivasan argued that an Iranian victory could accelerate the end of multiple geopolitical and financial eras, including the petrodollar system.
Meanwhile, Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff projects that the Chinese yuan could emerge as a global reserve currency within five years, citing growing investor demand to diversify away from the US dollar.
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Despite these long-term concerns, short-term market dynamics continue to offer intermittent support to the dollar. The dollar index dropped nearly 2% between April 7 and 15 after the US-Iran ceasefire announcement.
However, renewed uncertainty around the war pushed oil back up, reviving the petrodollar effect.
For now, geopolitical tensions are sustaining the petrodollar’s relevance. Yet, structural shifts beneath the surface raise questions about its long-term durability.
The post Petrodollar System Faces 3 Threats as Yuan Challenges Dollar appeared first on BeInCrypto.
As bitcoin heads into this year’s flagship Bitcoin Conference in Las Vegas next week, traders will be watching for a familiar pattern, a potential “sell-the-news” event that has played out in previous years.
The largest cryptocurrency is trading around $75,000, recovering from a local bottom of around $60,000 in early February after collapsing more than 50% from its October all-time high.
Data from Galaxy Research and Investing.com spanning 2019 to 2025 show the price of bitcoin tends to rise in the run-up to these conferences, delivers a mixed performance during the event and declines substantially afterward.
For instance, bitcoin gained about 3% in the 24 hours before the 2024 event in Nashville (featuring then-presidential candidate Donald Trump) and roughly 10% ahead of the 2019 conference in San Francisco, suggesting positioning builds into peak attention. Price action during the conference is typically subdued as the narrative fails to deliver, and the weakest performance occurs in the days and weeks that follow.
In the 2022 bear market, often compared to the current 2026 bear market environment, bitcoin fell just 1% during the Miami conference before sliding nearly 30% over several weeks. Similar post-conference weakness was seen in 2019, 2021 and 2023, where any momentum failed to hold.
Even in 2024, when Nashville hosted Trump to outline plans to position the U.S. as a bitcoin superpower, gains during the event were short-lived and marked a local top, just ahead of the yen carry-trade unwind in August that pushed bitcoin as low as $49,000.
Conferences tend to coincide with peaks in attention and liquidity as bullish narratives build up to the event, creating conditions for investors to unwind positions.
With sentiment still fragile and prices recovering from deep losses, the key question for 2026 is whether Bitcoin Vegas will once again act as an exit liquidity event.
The quantum divide between Bitcoin and Ethereum
Quantum computing has long been viewed as a distant, largely theoretical threat to blockchain systems. However, that perspective is now starting to change.
With major technology companies such as Google establishing timelines for post-quantum cryptography, and crypto researchers re-examining long-held assumptions, the discussion is shifting from abstract theory to concrete planning.
However, Bitcoin and Ethereum, two major blockchain networks, are addressing the quantum computing threat in different ways. Both networks depend on cryptographic systems that could, in principle, be compromised by sufficiently powerful quantum computers. However, their approaches to addressing this shared vulnerability are evolving in markedly different directions.
This divergence, often referred to as the “quantum gap,” has less to do with mathematics and more to do with how each network handles change, coordination and long-term security.
Did you know? Quantum computers do not need to break every wallet at once. They only need access to exposed public keys, which means older Bitcoin addresses that have already transacted could theoretically be more vulnerable than unused ones.
Why quantum computing matters for blockchains
Blockchains rely heavily on public-key cryptography, particularly elliptic curve cryptography (ECC). This framework allows users to derive a public address from a private key, enabling secure transactions while keeping sensitive information protected.
If quantum computers achieve sufficient scale and capability, they could fundamentally weaken this foundation. Algorithms such as Shor’s algorithm could, in theory, allow quantum systems to compute private keys directly from public keys, thereby jeopardizing wallet ownership and overall transaction security.
The consensus among most researchers is that cryptographically relevant quantum computers are still years or even decades away. Nevertheless, blockchain platforms present a distinct challenge. They cannot be updated instantaneously. Any substantial migration requires extensive coordination, rigorous testing and broad adoption over multiple years.
This situation highlights a key paradox: Although the threat is not pressing in the near term, preparation needs to begin well in advance.
External pressure is accelerating the debate
The discussion has moved well beyond crypto-native communities. In March 2026, Google announced a target timeline to transition its systems to post-quantum cryptography by 2029. It cautioned that quantum computers pose a significant threat to existing encryption and digital signatures.
This development is particularly relevant for blockchain systems because digital signatures play a fundamental role in verifying ownership. While encryption is vulnerable to “store-now, decrypt-later” attacks, digital signatures face a distinct risk. If compromised, they could increase the risk of unauthorized asset transfers.
As major institutions begin preparing for quantum resilience, blockchain networks face growing pressure to outline their own mitigation strategies. This is where the differences between Bitcoin and Ethereum become more apparent.
Did you know? The term “post-quantum cryptography” does not refer to quantum technology itself. It refers to classical algorithms designed to resist quantum attacks, allowing existing computers to defend against future quantum capabilities without requiring quantum hardware.
Bitcoin’s approach: Conservative and incremental
Bitcoin’s approach to quantum risk is guided by its core philosophy: minimize changes, maintain stability and avoid introducing unnecessary complexity at the base layer.
One of the most widely discussed proposals in this context is Bitcoin Improvement Proposal 360 (BIP-360), which introduces the concept of Pay-to-Merkle-Root (P2MR). Instead of fundamentally altering Bitcoin’s cryptographic foundations, the proposal seeks to limit exposure by changing the structure of certain transaction outputs.
The objective is not to achieve full quantum resistance for Bitcoin in a single move. Rather, it aims to create a pathway for adopting more secure transaction types while preserving backward compatibility with the existing system.
This approach mirrors the broader mindset within the Bitcoin community. Discussions often reflect extended time horizons, ranging from five years to several decades. The community is focused on ensuring that any changes do not undermine Bitcoin’s core principles: decentralization and predictability.
Nevertheless, this strategy has attracted criticism. Some argue that delaying more comprehensive measures could leave the network vulnerable if quantum advances arrive faster than expected. Others contend that making hasty changes could introduce avoidable risks into a system designed for long-term resilience.
Ethereum’s approach: Roadmap-driven and adaptive
Ethereum, by contrast, is pursuing a more proactive and structured strategy. The Ethereum ecosystem has begun formalizing a post-quantum roadmap that treats the challenge as a multi-layered system upgrade rather than a single technical adjustment.
A key element in Ethereum’s approach is “cryptographic agility,” which refers to the ability to replace core cryptographic primitives without undermining the stability of the network. This aligns with Ethereum’s broader design philosophy, which emphasizes flexibility and continuous iterative improvement.
The roadmap covers multiple layers:
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Execution layer: Investigating account abstraction and alternative signature schemes that can support post-quantum cryptography.
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Consensus layer: Assessing replacements for validator signature mechanisms, including hash-based options.
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Data layer: Modifying data availability structures to ensure security in a post-quantum setting.
Ethereum developers have positioned post-quantum security as a long-term strategic priority, with timelines extending toward the end of the decade.
In contrast to Bitcoin’s incremental proposals, Ethereum’s approach resembles a staged migration plan. The goal is not immediate rollout but gradual preparation, allowing the network to transition when the threat becomes more concrete.
Why Bitcoin and Ethereum are taking different approaches to the quantum threat
The divergent approaches of Bitcoin and Ethereum are not a coincidence. They arise from fundamental differences in architecture, governance and philosophy.
Bitcoin’s base layer design emphasizes robustness and predictability, fostering a cautious attitude toward significant upgrades. Any change must meet a high bar for consensus and, even then, is usually limited in scope.
Ethereum, by contrast, has a track record of coordinated upgrades and protocol evolution. From the shift to proof-of-stake to ongoing scaling improvements, the network has demonstrated a willingness to execute complex changes when needed.
This distinction shapes how each network views the quantum threat. Bitcoin generally sees it as a remote risk that warrants careful, minimal intervention. Ethereum treats it as a systems-level issue that requires early planning and architectural adaptability.
In this context, the “quantum gap” is less about disagreement over the nature of the threat and more about how each ecosystem defines responsible preparation.
Did you know? Some early Bitcoin transactions reused addresses multiple times, unintentionally increasing their exposure. Modern wallet practices discourage address reuse partly because of long-term risks such as quantum attacks, even though the threat is not immediate.
An unresolved challenge for both Bitcoin and Ethereum
Despite their differing strategies, neither Bitcoin nor Ethereum has fully resolved the quantum threat.
Bitcoin continues to examine various proposals and weigh trade-offs, yet no clear migration path has been formally adopted. Ethereum, although more advanced in its planning, still faces substantial technical and coordination hurdles before its roadmap can be fully implemented.
Several open questions remain relevant to both ecosystems:
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How to migrate existing assets protected by vulnerable cryptography
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How to coordinate upgrades within decentralized communities
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How to balance backward compatibility and forward security
These difficulties underscore the complexity of the issue. Post-quantum security represents more than a technical upgrade. It is also a test of long-term adaptability, governance and coordination.
Could security posture influence market narratives?
As institutional interest in quantum risk continues to grow, differences in preparedness could eventually shape how markets assess blockchain networks.
The reasoning is simple: A network that demonstrates greater adaptability to threats may be viewed as more resilient over the long term.
However, this idea remains largely speculative. Because quantum threats are still seen as a long-term concern, any near-term market effects are more likely to stem from narrative than from concrete technical developments.
Nevertheless, the fact that the discussion is now entering institutional research and broader public discourse suggests that it could become a more prominent consideration in the future.
Michael Saylor signaled on social media that Strategy is on the verge of announcing another Bitcoin purchase, posting a chart of the company’s full BTC buying history with noticeably larger circles marking recent acquisitions.
The timing matters: Strategy already executed a record single-day buy exceeding $1 billion in BTC just before the tease, and with $2.25 billion in cash reserved, the scale of what comes next is the only open question.
Simultaneously, the company, formerly MicroStrategy and now the largest corporate Bitcoin holder on the planet, floated a proposal to convert its STRC preferred stock from monthly to semi-monthly dividend payments, a structural capital markets refinement that analysts say could significantly broaden institutional demand for the instrument.
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- Purchase incoming: Saylor shared a chart of Strategy’s BTC buying history with larger recent circles, signaling acceleration – another buy announcement is imminent.
- Dividend proposal: Strategy is floating semi-monthly payments for its STRC preferred stock, with shareholder voting closing June 8, 2026; first record date June 30, first payment July 15.
- STRC mechanics: Annualized yield stays fixed at 11.5%; switching to twice-monthly payments targets halved ex-dividend drawdowns, tighter liquidity patterns, and better collateral utility.
- Market signal: With BTC above $76,000 and $2.25 billion in cash reserved, Strategy’s dual move – more BTC plus refined shareholder returns – is a compounding demand signal for the spot market.
What Saylor Dual Signal Actually Means for Strategy’s Bitcoin Capital Stack
The STRC preferred series – branded “Stretch” – launched in mid-2024 at an 11.5% annualized yield, initially paying monthly dividends funded in part by Bitcoin treasury yields.
Volatility on the instrument has collapsed from 13% in its first eight months to 2.1% over the past two months, a compression driven by surging institutional demand that has pushed outstanding notional value to $6.4 billion.
The semi-monthly proposal doesn’t change the yield – 11.5% annualized remains fixed – but splits payment cadence to record dates on the 15th and last day of each month, pending Nasdaq compliance review and dual approval from both STRC holders and MSTR common shareholders.
Saylor’s stated rationale: “The proposed changes are intended to stabilize price, dampen cyclicality, drive liquidity, and grow demand.” He added the team views semi-monthly as “twice as good” as monthly for the instrument.
If approved, STRC would be the only preferred security or equity globally paying dividends twice monthly , a structural differentiator that improves collateral utility for borrowing and tightens haircuts for institutional holders using it as leverage collateral.
That’s not a minor footnote. Better collateral terms mean more institutional capital can rotate into STRC without consuming as much balance sheet, which expands the buyer pool at the exact moment Saylor is telegraphing another large BTC purchase. The feedback loop here is deliberate: more demand for STRC funds more capital raises, which fund more BTC accumulation, which backstops the yield instrument.
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The post Michael Saylor Hints at Bigger Bitcoin Buys After Floating Semi-Monthly Dividends appeared first on Cryptonews.
The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) general manager, Pablo Hernández de Cos, called for tighter global coordination on stablecoins Monday, warning that US dollar-denominated tokens could have “material consequences” for financial stability and economic policy if they grow large enough to rival traditional money.
Speaking at a Bank of Japan seminar in Tokyo, he said current stablecoin arrangements fall short of what is needed for a widely used means of payment, even if they offer faster cross-border transfers and integration with smart contracts.
De Cos said the largest US dollar stablecoins, such as USDt (USDT) and USDC (USDC), share characteristics with investment products rather than cash-like money, pointing to fees and conditions on primary market redemptions and episodes where their prices diverge from par in secondary markets.
In his view, these features make the tokens behave more like exchange-traded funds (ETFs), while still creating run and contagion risks because issuers hold short-term government debt and bank deposits as reserve assets. In a stress episode, he warned, rapid outflows from stablecoins could force sales of those reserves into already strained markets or transmit funding pressure to banks.
The warning comes as policymakers globally debate how to regulate fast-growing stablecoins and other tokenized money-like instruments.
He added that the use of public, permissionless blockchains and unhosted wallets means a significant share of activity sits outside conventional Anti-Money Laundering and Counter-Terrorism Financing controls, making stablecoins attractive for illicit use unless bespoke safeguards are implemented at on- and off-ramps.
Europe sharpens its stablecoin stance
The speech comes as European policymakers push for tighter control of non-euro stablecoins and other tokenized money-like instruments.
Earlier this month, Bank of France First Deputy Governor Denis Beau urged the European Union to go beyond the original Markets in Crypto Assets Regulation text by limiting the use of non-euro-denominated stablecoins in everyday payments, tightening rules on issuing the same coin inside and outside the bloc to reduce regulatory arbitrage in times of stress.
Related: EU central bank backs plan for crypto supervision under EU markets watchdog
In parallel, the European Central Bank has contrasted euro stablecoins with tokenized money market funds, noting that both perform liquidity transformation and are exposed to run risk, but operate under different transparency, liquidity management and regulatory regimes that can shape how stress feeds into funding markets.
Other major jurisdictions are also recalibrating their approaches. In the United Kingdom, members of the House of Lords questioned Coinbase in March over whether stablecoins could drain commercial bank deposits, trigger Silicon Valley Bank-style runs and facilitate crime, as the government finalizes a bespoke regime for fiat-backed tokens.
In Switzerland, UBS and several domestic peers launched a franc-denominated stablecoin pilot in a sandbox environment on April 8, in an effort to explore blockchain-based franc payments while keeping the instruments firmly anchored in the regulated financial system.
Bitcoin options worth roughly $7.9 billion are set to expire on Deribit this Friday, with positioning data pointing to $62,000 and $75,000 as key levels to watch out for.
The $75,000 level is where most trading in call options, which represent bullish bets, has happened, according to data source Glassnode. Around $395 million in call open interest is concentrated at the $75,000 strike as of writing. That figure represents the dollar value of the number of active call options contracts today.
More importantly, “gamma exposure” is deeply negative at the 75,000 strike – it means dealers’ hedging flows are likely to amplify price movements around this level. As the price rises, they may need to buy more, and as it falls, sell more, reinforcing the direction of the move.
As a result, the 75,000 level can act as a zone of heightened volatility, where price swings become sharper rather than stabilizing.
Options are derivative contracts that give the buyer the right to buy or sell the underlying asset, in this case, BTC, at a predetermined price at a later date. A call option gives the right to buy and a put option gives the right to sell.
It’s like paying a booking fee to reserve a right to transact a house at today’s price – you have the right to buy or sell it later at that price, but you’re not obligated to go through with the transaction if the market price moves against you.
On the downside, the largest concentration of put open interest sits at $62,000, with roughly $330 million in contracts, marking the main zone of downside protection.
Between the two, there’s this max pain level of $71,000, which can act as a magnate heading into the expiry. The “max pain” point is the price level at which the largest number of options contracts are expected to expire worthless on the settlement date, though this level can shift as prices and open interest change leading up to expiry.
All in all, the options market is effectively sitting between $62,000 and $75,000, with $71,000 acting as a midpoint. Unlike March, when bitcoin traded below max pain, the market is now sitting above it, to test whether bitcoin can hold onto its gains.
Potential short squeeze higher
Funding rates in perpetual futures have remained negative, indicating a build-up of short positions that could fuel a squeeze if prices hold higher. Bears could square off their bearish bets if prices remain resilient above $75,000, which could add to the upward momentum.
While data from Checkonchain shows Deribit now holds around $31 billion in open interest, the largest across options markets, surpassing even BlackRock’s IBIT, which stands near $28 billion.
The Kelp restaking exploit underscores a broader vulnerability in DeFi: non-isolated lending and tightly integrated protocols can create rapid, cross-platform contagion. Industry insiders say the incident serves as a stress test for how risk can cascade beyond a single smart contract when assets and incentives are interconnected across multiple chains and products.
According to Michael Egorov, founder of Curve Finance, allowing lending frameworks to treat a wide array of collateral as interchangeable leverage exposes users to the risk of a single point of failure within the broader collateral ecosystem. In practical terms, a breach or misstep tied to one token can ripple through all assets backed by that same architecture, amplifying losses beyond the original target. Egorov’s observations align with a growing emphasis in DeFi risk management on collateral design and vault hygiene as the ecosystem grows more complex.
The Kelp project, which operates a restaking mechanism tied to the rsETH token, became the centerpiece of a weekend security incident when it was attacked, forcing a halt to Kelp’s smart contracts and triggering an urgent security review. Early estimates pegged misappropriated funds at around $293 million, with the platform moving quickly to investigate and mitigate the damage. The incident illustrates how nuanced DeFi constructs—restaking, liquidity provision, and cross-protocol guarantees—can present an expanded attack surface when combined with cross-chain functionality.
In the wake of the attack, Egorov urged DeFi teams to enhance asset vetting before accepting tokens as lending collateral, warning against single points of failure or exploitable surface areas within new digital assets. His guidance points to a broader industry push toward stronger due diligence on novel assets and more granular risk assessments for collateral acceptance on lending platforms.
The Kelp incident also spotlights the cross-chain dimension of the risk vector. Egorov cautioned that cross-chain frameworks and bridges, while enabling liquidity and interoperability, introduce significant attack surfaces. “Cross-chain is hard and potentially risky. Only use cross-chain infrastructure when absolutely necessary, and do it really carefully,” he said in an interview. The message arrives at a time when users increasingly depend on multi-chain strategies to access liquidity and yield opportunities, but security architectures have not always kept pace with rapid product innovation.
Crypto-security researchers framed the incident as a contagion event rather than a single-contract exploit. Cyvers, a blockchain security firm, described the Kelp attack as crossing protocol boundaries almost immediately. The incident affected at least nine DeFi protocols and platforms, including Aave, Fluid, Compound Finance, SparkLend, and Euler, all of which took steps to freeze rsETH markets or otherwise mitigate the fallout. The rapid cross-protocol response underscores how decentralized systems rely on a network of dependent components—lenders, oracles, bridges, and liquidity pools—to function. When one piece falters, others must quickly reconfigure risk controls to prevent broader losses.
“This was not just a protocol exploit. It immediately became a cross-protocol contagion event,” Cyvers CEO Deddy Lavid told Cointelegraph. The challenge is no longer just preventing exploits at the contract level, but understanding how fast they can cascade across integrated protocols.
The ripple effects from Kelp are not isolated to a handful of DeFi shops. The attack followed Drift Protocol’s about $280 million hack earlier in the month, and Cointelegraph notes that a string of other crypto platforms and DeFi exploits have marked a period of heightened risk activity for the sector. In total, losses from crypto hacks, code exploits, and scams in Q1 2026 were reported to be substantial, reinforcing the need for improved security, governance, and incident response across DeFi ecosystems.
Key takeaways
- Interconnected risk amplifies losses. Non-isolated lending means collateral attacks can spread through multiple tokens and protocols, increasing the potential scope of exploit losses beyond a single project.
- Cross-chain design as both enabler and hazard. Bridges and cross-chain liquidity foster innovation but also widen the attack surface, making careful, deliberate use essential.
- Contagion across nine protocols. The Kelp incident prompted immediate actions from Aave, Fluid, Compound Finance, SparkLend, Euler, and others to pause or mitigate rsETH exposure, illustrating real-time containment challenges in integrated DeFi networks.
- Asset vetting remains a priority. Industry voices emphasize rigorous evaluation of new collateral and the pursuit of resilient, multi-layer risk controls before broadening lending collateral acceptance.
- Sector context matters. The episode sits within a sequence of high-profile exploits, including Drift Protocol, signaling a broader imperative for stronger incident response and security architectures as DeFi grows more interconnected.
Kelp, rsETH, and the evolving DeFi security landscape
The Kelp incident is a concrete reminder that highly specialized DeFi constructs—such as restaking mechanisms—do not exist in a vacuum. The rsETH token, while offering potential yield and staking mechanics, also creates dependencies on the health of the restaking pipeline and the security of the tokens used as collateral. When a vulnerability emerges in one component, other protocols relying on the same token or the same cross-chain infrastructure can be pulled into the crisis, sometimes within hours or minutes of the initial breach.
From a risk-management perspective, the episode underscores several practical steps for builders and operators. First, strengthening the governance and vetting process for new assets used in lending markets is critical. Second, there is a clear case for tighter, more auditable cross-chain interaction patterns—reducing trust assumptions where possible and defaulting to more conservative bridge usage. Third, incident response playbooks must embrace rapid cross-protocol coordination, including predefined withdrawal or pause criteria that can be executed decisively to limit losses.
For investors and traders, the unfolding narrative reinforces a cautious stance toward complex DeFi products that rely on multi-layer architectures. While such products can unlock innovative yield opportunities, they also carry layered risk—asset design risk, cross-chain risk, and governance risk—that can compound quickly in fast-moving market environments. As the sector digests this latest episode, market participants will be watching not only for immediate recoveries and protocol updates but also for longer-term shifts in collateral standards and security best practices across DeFi lending.
Broader implications for DeFi stability and policy
Analysts suggest that the Kelp incident could influence how regulators and industry groups frame risk disclosures and capital adequacy for DeFi platforms. As ecosystems become more interconnected, there is a growing call for standardized risk reporting around cross-chain activities, collateral diversification, and incident response metrics. While regulatory approaches vary by jurisdiction, the shared industry objective remains clear: build resilient infrastructure capable of withstanding rapid, multi-protocol shocks without compromising user funds.
The road ahead will likely feature a combination of enhanced asset vetting, more cautious cross-chain deployment, and stronger protocol-to-protocol coordination. The lessons from Kelp are not just about recovering from a single attack; they are about reshaping the safety net for an increasingly interconnected DeFi landscape.
Watching the next set of protocol updates and audits will be essential. As developers and security researchers digest the Kelp fallout, the market will likely see renewed emphasis on collateral risk controls, faster detection of cross-chain anomalies, and tighter governance processes to prevent similar contagion events from reoccurring.
Readers should stay tuned for further disclosures from affected platforms as they publish findings from post-incident reviews, patch timelines, and any changes to rsETH-related risk parameters. The evolving response from the DeFi community will be a critical barometer for how quickly the sector can translate security lessons into practical safeguards for users, traders, and liquidity providers.
March proved to be one of the weakest months for the German index in recent years, though conditions stabilised by mid-April. At present, the DAX (Germany 40 mini on FXOpen) is showing a solid recovery, trading around 24,650. The rebound has been largely driven by gains in Rheinmetall and Infineon, highlighting investor preference for defence and technology stocks amid the current geopolitical backdrop.
The index remains highly sensitive to developments around the Strait of Hormuz. Ongoing reports of blockades and resumptions in shipping continue to fuel uncertainty in energy markets, directly affecting costs for German industry. At the same time, ECB policy remains a limiting factor: the central bank has kept rates at 2.0%, and despite inflation concerns, markets are not pricing in easing before the summer.
Technical picture
After reaching highs near 25,500 in January 2026, the index entered a sharp correction phase. A gap on 2 March signalled a shift in sentiment, prompting traders to close long positions. On 9 March, an extreme spike in vertical volume was recorded as the market attempted to break below 23,000. The index later tested strong support at 22,000, where heavy buying emerged and a base began to form.
Following the rebound, the price consolidated above the POC zone of 23,500–23,800, which has since turned into support. Volume levels have normalised after the March volatility, suggesting that panic selling has subsided. The RSI indicator confirms improving momentum, rising to 64.9 and holding above its moving averages, pointing to renewed bullish strength. The next key resistance for buyers stands at 25,000.
Summary
Holding above the POC zone has restored a bullish structure, returning control to buyers. The 23,000 level is now shaping up as a strong support area, while RSI with MA signals recovering demand. However, despite the current rebound, the broader fundamental backdrop remains mixed, with geopolitical risks and ECB policy expectations continuing to influence the index’s trajectory.
Crypto World
Bitcoin’s $126,200 Pierce Fades as Bearish Analyst Calls for Red May-June and $60K Target
TLDR:
- Bitcoin pierced $126,200 resistance on Friday and Saturday but failed to hold, signaling a likely pivot high.
- Analyst Aaron Dishner targets $60,000 first, followed by $49,000 and $38,555 if a full bear market unwinds.
- Weekly TBT bullish divergences on BTC and TOTALES are not being treated as confirmed trend-reversal signals yet.
- Ethereum, altcoins, and macro indicators including DXY and S&P futures add further weight to the bearish outlook.
Bitcoin analyst Aaron Dishner is warning of a significant pullback after price briefly pierced the $126,200 resistance level last week.
The move failed to hold, and Dishner, known on X as @MooninPapa, sees the reaction as a pivot high rather than a breakout.
With short-term support giving way across multiple indicators, he expects Bitcoin to move substantially lower through May and June, with firm downside targets already mapped out.
$126,200 Resistance Rejection Sets the Stage for Deeper Losses
Bitcoin pierced overhead resistance at $126,200 across Friday and Saturday but failed to sustain the move. The price reaction that followed has left Dishner unconvinced that bulls have retaken control.
He views the current structure as a pivot high, with the short-term support fan beginning to break down beneath it.
RSI has already completed its expected role within this price cycle, according to Dishner. Any bounce toward the $75,500 area, he noted, looks more like a retest than a recovery. He sees that level as a potential entry point for continued selling pressure rather than a base for renewed upside.
In a post on X, Dishner laid out his broader expectations for the months ahead. He is calling for red conditions through both May and June, with $60,000 as his first major downside target. From there, he sees $49,000 as a realistic follow-through level if selling pressure persists.
If a full bear market unwind plays out, Dishner places $38,555 as his deepest target. Weekly TBT bullish divergences have appeared on Bitcoin and TOTALES, but he is not treating them as trend-change signals.
He pointed out that similar readings have appeared before real bottoms formed in prior cycles, making them unreliable as standalone reversal signals.
Altcoins and Macro Risks Add Further Weight to the Bearish Outlook
Stablecoin dominance continues to support the bearish case heading into the anticipated pullback. The OTHERS index has already been rejected at the top of the cloud, reinforcing the view that broad market weakness remains intact.
Last week’s upper wick into the fast line on Bitcoin looked more like a warning than a confirmed breakout, Dishner noted.
Ethereum confirmed a weekly TBT bullish divergence but has not impressed with its price action. Dishner still sees a move toward $1,000 as a possibility for ETH, given how weak it has been relative to expectations.
The divergence alone, he argued, does not make a case for turning bullish during what he considers a bottom year.
On the macro side, the DXY still looks capable of closing the gap at 99.516, which could add pressure across risk assets.
S&P futures appear overly extended following a sharp reversal, while NK225 looks stretched at current levels. USDJPY remains a key risk factor if dollar strength returns.
Among altcoins, BNB is back at a fast line retest and AAVE may see a short reflex bounce after an exploit-driven flush. CFX and LDO still look like exhaustion rallies, while ZBCN looks heavy ahead of a support break.
Dishner is watching TAO but prefers to wait for Bitcoin to complete its pullback before taking any position.
RaveDAO’s RAVE token fell sharply over the past two days, dropping from $26 to below $1 and extending losses on Monday.
Summary
- RAVE plunged from $26 to under $1 after ZachXBT raised market manipulation concerns publicly Friday.
- ZachXBT said wallets linked to early distribution controlled about 95% of RAVE’s total supply.
- Binance, Bitget, and Gate.io acknowledged probe calls as RaveDAO denied involvement in price action.
Data cited in the report showed the token lost about 95% on Sunday before falling more than 60% again in the following 24 hours.
The decline followed public calls for an investigation by on-chain investigator ZachXBT. On April 18, he asked Binance, Bitget, and Gate.io to review suspected market manipulation tied to RAVE. He first offered a $10,000 bounty for information and later raised it to $25,000 the same day.
ZachXBT said he had contacted RaveDAO co-founder Yemu Xu on April 13 and April 14 about his concerns but did not receive a response before the token collapsed. He later shared findings that linked the project’s early token distribution to a small group of wallets.
According to his review, addresses tied to the initial distribution controlled about 95% of RAVE’s 1 billion token supply. He also flagged activity involving wallets connected to Bitget and Gate.io deposit addresses. ZachXBT said the scale of the sell-off looked unusual when compared with liquidation data across the market.
Meanwhile, Bitget publicly responded to the request for an investigation within hours. Binance and Gate.io also acknowledged the calls later in the day. At the same time, RaveDAO said it had no role in the recent price movement.
In a later update, ZachXBT said a multisig wallet linked to the initial distribution moved about 23 million RAVE, worth around $23 million, to two Bitget deposit addresses. After that transfer, the token’s price dropped below $0.60.
He also wrote that roughly $6 billion in market value was erased while 24-hour liquidations stood near $52 million, which he described as a sign of an unstable market structure.
RaveDAO denies involvement as wider scrutiny grows
RaveDAO issued a public response rejecting claims that it drove the price move. The team said it was ”not engaged in, nor responsible for, recent price action.” It also addressed claims about token control, though it did not confirm the figures mentioned by ZachXBT.
The team added that it aims to act ”sustainably and transparently” as it builds its platform. Meanwhile, ZachXBT said similar price patterns have appeared in other tokens, including SIREN, MYX, COAI, M, PIPPIN, and RIVER. He also said he held no trading position in RAVE and that the bounty for verified information remains open.
At the time of writing, RAVE traded at $0.64 with a 24-hour trading volume of $297.6 million. The token was down 46% over 24 hours, leaving it with a market capitalization of about $161.3 million.
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