Solana (SOL) futures dropped sharply in May as traders reduced leveraged exposure across all exchanges. SOL open interest (OI) dropped to $1.90 billion on Thursday from $2.75 billion on May 11, a 30% decline, while funding rates remained close to neutral. The combination points to weakening investor sentiment as SOL eyes a retest of its yearly low at $68. 

SOL spot demand offsets futures market weakness

The aggregated funding rate for Solana futures held near -0.005, showing balanced positioning between longs and shorts. SOL traders have not built aggressive directional bets despite the recent price slide to $80.

SOL price, aggregated open interest, and funding rate. Source: velo chart

At the same time, the aggregated futures volume cumulative volume delta (CVD) for stablecoin-margined orders fell to a yearly low of -$13 billion. The CVD tracks whether buyers or sellers are more active over time. The decline signals stronger sell-side pressure in futures markets through May.

BTC price, aggregated spot and futures CVD. Source: Coinalyze 

However, spot activity paints a steadier picture. Spot CVD has improved to $350 million since March, showing that buyers have continued to absorb supply on spot exchanges even as derivatives positioning has weakened. 

The positive flows into spot SOL exchange-traded funds (ETFs) added to that trend. The monthly net inflows reached $113 million in May, marking the strongest monthly total for SOL ETFs in 2026.

The split between futures selling and steady spot accumulation often points to a lower level of speculative appetite rather than panic selling. This indicates that leveraged traders reduced risk exposure, while spot buyers continued to add positions gradually.

Spot SOL ETF netflows. Source: SoSoValue

Related: Three key XRP metrics suggest ‘explosive price expansion’ is next

SOL retests the $80 price floor of a three-month range

From a technical standpoint, SOL continues to trade inside a broad range between $80 and $95. The range formed after Solana fell 42% during Q1. The price returned to the lower boundary on Wednesday after another rejection near the resistance level.

SOL/USD, one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

A move below $80 places focus on the yearly low near $68. The liquidation heat maps show more than $800 million in cumulative long leverage sitting near that zone, making it an important liquidity pocket if downside pressure increases.

Crypto trader Cold Blooded Shiller described SOL as one of the weaker large-cap charts in the market. In a post on X, the trader said SOL has been in a downtrend since October and lacks strong support below the current price level of $80.

Crypto commentator Zoe also placed bids near $67, closely aligning with the yearly low and the largest cluster of leveraged liquidations identified on the open leveraged positions heatmap. 

SOL liquidation map. Source: CoinGlass

Related: HYPE chases new highs as ETF inflows, institutional adoption accelerate

The crypto sector remains deeply out of favor, not only from a price perspective, but also in terms of investor sentiment.

Capital flows and market attention have increasingly shifted toward other high-growth sectors, lately semiconductors and memory-related equities, which have effectively replaced crypto as the market’s dominant momentum trade.

This analysis compares the performance cycles of bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market cap; gold, the largest precious metal; NVIDIA (NVDA), the leading AI-driven equity; and memory and semiconductor names, including SanDisk (SNDK) and Micron Technology (MU).

Bitcoin experienced a huge rally from its November 2022 low through its October 2025 peak, surging more than 650% from roughly $15,000 to nearly $125,000. A significant portion of that move occurred between September 2024 and January 2025, when the price doubled from approximately $55,000 to $110,000 alongside Donald Trump’s 2024 election victory. The price ultimately topped around $126,000 last October.

Gold followed a delayed but similar trajectory, driven largely by the growing “debasement trade” narrative surrounding fiscal deficits and monetary expansion. The metal began its breakout in early 2024 near $2,000 per ounce and eventually climbed above $5,200 per ounce in February 2026, roughly four months after bitcoin peaked. Since then, gold has corrected nearly 20% and now trades below $4,400 per ounce.

NVIDIA followed a similar pattern, reaching a peak near $225 per share in May before easing back to $212, and it is now only slightly higher over the past six months.

Hot money trading has now shifted decisively toward memory and semiconductor companies such as Sandisk and Micron Technology, with Micron recently entering the $1 trillion market capitalization club after having a valuation of just $70 billion only one year ago.

With SpaceX potentially approaching the largest IPO in history, and OpenAI and Anthropic possibly soon to follow, investor attention could shift once again. Much like crypto, gold and AI infrastructure before them, these companies could become the next major destination for speculative and momentum-driven capital, potentially defining the next phase of the market cycle.

With investors about to get a new shiny object on which to shower attention and money, bitcoin and crypto could be sidelined from bull runs for far longer than expected.

UniCredit director Elena Carletti has warned Europe may struggle to contain a crypto bank crisis under MiCA rules.

UniCredit deputy vice chair Elena Carletti has warned that Europe may struggle to contain a crypto-linked banking shock under MiCA. The Italian bank executive said EU tools are weaker than the US emergency response of 2023.

The comments land as MiCA pulls stablecoin issuers closer to traditional lenders. Carletti, who chairs UniCredit’s board risk committee, said at an IESE Business School conference in Madrid that the same systemic-risk exception used to guarantee all SVB and Signature deposits “cannot be easily taken in Europe.”

Why MiCA creates a “double weakness”

MiCA requires stablecoin issuers, classified as electronic money tokens, to hold reserves in liquid assets including bank deposits and government securities. That ties stablecoin stability directly to bank balance sheets.

The link became visible during the March 2023 SVB collapse. Circle, issuer of USDC, disclosed $3.3 billion of reserves stuck at the failed bank, and the stablecoin briefly lost its dollar peg before US regulators guaranteed all deposits.

“The coverage and protection … was given to all deposits, including stablecoin companies, and that also allowed to maintain the stability of the stablecoin,” Carletti said. EU deposit insurance, capped at €100,000, cannot absorb stress from large stablecoin reserve accounts the same way.

What it means for Europe’s stablecoin push

Carletti’s warning comes as European banks lean further into stablecoins. UniCredit itself is a founding member of Qivalis, the consortium planning a MiCA-compliant euro stablecoin for launch in the second half of 2026.

Italy’s Banca Sella, another Qivalis founder, recently won Bank of Italy approval to offer crypto custody and transfer services under MiCA’s notification route for credit institutions. The full MiCA rollout tightens supervision of CASPs, stablecoin issuers and DeFi front-ends by July 2026.

Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino has previously argued MiCA’s 60% uninsured cash reserve requirement could itself trigger systemic risk, echoing Carletti’s concern from the issuer side.

Latest developments: Calamos says its protected Bitcoin ETFs are attracting inflows even as spot Bitcoin ETFs see redemptions.

• Matt Kaufman, head of ETFs at Calamos, said the firm saw roughly $10 million to $15 million in inflows over the past several weeks.
• Kaufman said advisors are increasingly looking for Bitcoin exposure that reduces volatility and downside risk.
• The firm offers three versions of its protected Bitcoin ETFs, including products with full downside protection and others with 10% or 20% downside risk.
• “You can get upside of Bitcoin with no downside risk,” Kaufman said.
• Kaufman joined CoinDesk’s Jennifer Sanasie on Public Keys.

How it works: Calamos structures the products using Treasuries and options tied to Bitcoin-linked indexes.

• Kaufman said the firm allocates roughly 90% of assets into Treasuries to build downside protection.
• The remaining budget is used to buy Bitcoin-linked call spreads through FLEX options.
• Calamos created its own Bitcoin-linked index and listed FLEX options tied to that index after the launch of spot Bitcoin ETF options.
• The products are offered in quarterly structures as well as laddered versions designed for model portfolios.

What advisors are asking: Wealth managers are becoming more sophisticated in how they evaluate crypto exposure.

• Kaufman said advisors previously focused on whether Bitcoin belonged in portfolios at all.
• Now, advisors are asking how to improve risk-adjusted returns and portfolio construction using crypto exposure.
• Calamos positions its products as alternatives to traditional portfolio allocations, including broad equities, bonds and cash.
• Kaufman said some investors are moving from cash-like products into fully protected Bitcoin ETFs tied to Bitcoin performance but without downside exposure.

Reading between the lines: The crypto ETF market is evolving beyond simple spot exposure.

• Kaufman said the industry is increasingly dividing crypto ETF strategies into three categories: protection, income and growth.
• Calamos previously launched auto-callable income ETFs and is exploring additional crypto-related strategies.
• Other ETF issuers have focused on generating yield from Bitcoin volatility through options-based products.
• “You don’t just have to sit in the spot vehicle anymore and ride out those waves,” Kaufman said.

What comes next: Calamos expects Bitcoin volatility to remain a defining feature of the asset.

• Kaufman said he expects Bitcoin to revisit previous highs despite recent market turbulence.
• He argued Bitcoin’s volatility profile creates opportunities for structured products and options-based strategies.
• “I think we’re going higher,” Kaufman said.

Key Insights

• BTC trades below its important $80,000-$84,000 resistance level following multiple failed attempts at breaking out above it
• The U.S. inflation numbers and Fed monetary expectations continue to dominate Bitcoin sentiment in the short term
• Spot BTC ETF flow coming from institutional participants continues to be a big contributor to BTC’s liquidity
• Options expiration on significant BTC amounts increases the probability of volatility and sharp price moves
• Technical indicators show that Bitcoin still continues its consolidation phase within the broader corrective market structure

Increasing Volatility Around Major Resistance Level for Bitcoin

BTC was trading around the $76,700 level. As market participants paid close attention to inflation data, ETF action, and macroeconomic updates, Bitcoin’s volatility surged significantly. Investors’ sentiment has remained conservative due to ongoing struggles by Bitcoin below the resistance zone at $80,000-$84,000.

Currently, the crypto market has become highly sensitive to events happening in the traditional finance world. Bitcoin is regarded as a risk-on currency that has been actively responding to fluctuations in liquidity, yields, and Fed guidance.

Recent market dynamics have been characterized by intense battles between bulls and bears around technical levels. Despite multiple attempts to break higher by Bitcoin in May, sellers have managed to protect higher levels.

Macroeconomic News Pushes Bitcoin Speculators to Be Defensive

Macroeconomic news still represents the most significant driver behind Bitcoin’s short-term performance. Speculators are currently very attentive to the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report in the United States, which might be the most important financial market event scheduled in the next couple of weeks.

Lower-than-expected inflation numbers would boost risk appetite and stimulate stronger institutional appetite for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. By contrast, higher-than-expected inflation would put negative pressure on BTC due to higher Treasury rates and a stronger US dollar.

Also, the Fed’s stance is another driver affecting the overall market sentiment. Market players are very reactive to any possible hints about potential changes to interest-rate cuts or liquidity injections. As shown previously, a dovish monetary policy stance has often fueled strong Bitcoin gains because of enhanced market liquidity and increased speculative appetite.

On the other hand, existing geopolitical tensions are another source of volatility for financial assets. Higher oil prices or conflicts between countries would make investors move into defensive positions, negatively impacting Bitcoin.

Bitcoin ETF Inflows Keep Liquidity in Bitcoin Stable

The spot Bitcoin ETF has been a prominent factor behind market momentum. Institutional investments in Bitcoin ETFs help recover markets from declines through their support.

Market players are still observing developments in ETFs from some of the top asset managers such as BlackRock and Fidelity Investments. Positive ETF inflows usually result in momentum-based rallies and short squeezes when market sentiment is positive.

Nonetheless, investors remain cautious about the risk of bearish pressure. Downside pressure on Bitcoin may increase rapidly when ETF flows are reduced while leveraged positions remain high.

Bitcoin Options Expiry Could Set Off Market Surges

Bitcoin options expiry represents another significant element responsible for market volatility. Monthly options expiry events lead to occasional price dislocations and swift movements due to the adjustment of hedging strategies and the closing of leveraged positions.

Future expiration periods are predicted to result in higher market volatility levels, especially when Bitcoin is trading around key technical resistances. Constricted trading activity and narrowed ranges tend to precede bigger directional moves.

Institutional investors are already gearing up for possible market breakouts depending on the economic environment and liquidity situations.

Chart Technicals Hint at Further Consolidation

The technical structure seen on Bitcoin’s daily chart implies that the cryptocurrency is operating within a larger consolidation process following previous corrections from its record high above $124,000. In both those occasions, periods of increased selling pressure had led to the formation of strong support levels around $60,000 prior to the beginning of recovery processes.

In the current case, although Bitcoin has been forming new lower lows, the momentum surrounding these moves has been decreasing. This can be seen from the fact that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator is now approaching neutral readings, after having risen into overbought territory during the first stages of the bounce process.

U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Commissioner Hester Peirce warned this week that financial privacy is increasingly undervalued in U.S. regulation, urging a more balanced view of privacy-preserving technology as part of the nation’s financial infrastructure.

Speaking on Wednesday at Georgetown Law, Peirce framed cryptographic tools and privacy-enhancing technologies as legitimate components of modern markets, not merely the province of illicit actors.

“Empowering government to identify, pursue, and punish the bad guys is important to the security of the nation and its people, but so too is empowering people to protect information about their lives, including their financial lives,” she said, according to the transcript published on the SEC’s website.

Peirce added that privacy technologies can help individuals protect themselves from hackers, scammers and other malicious actors, and should not be viewed as “an opportunity for the government to watch more of what its citizens do.”

She encouraged developers building privacy-enhancing technologies to engage with the SEC’s Crypto Task Force, particularly on tools that could support Know Your Customer (KYC) and Anti-Money Laundering (AML) compliance requirements.

Key takeaways

• Privacy-enhancing technologies are legitimate components of financial infrastructure, not solely tools for illicit activity.
• Financial privacy can coexist with national security objectives and may reduce information exposure for individuals.
• Developers of privacy-focused tools should collaborate with the SEC’s Crypto Task Force on potential KYC/AML compliance considerations.
• Regulatory conversations in the European Union point to 2027 AML rule changes that could restrict anonymous accounts and privacy-preserving tokens.
• Privacy-focused crypto innovation remains active in the market, with practical applications and ongoing investor interest in assets and use cases that prioritize on-chain privacy.

Privacy returns to crypto spotlight

Privacy and privacy-preserving technologies have long been a core use case for crypto, with projects like Monero and Zcash designed to shield transaction data and user identities. The current regulatory dialogue has revived debate over the role these tools should play in the ecosystem. Advocates argue that privacy protections help users defend against surveillance, data exploitation, and targeted scams, while critics warn they could enable illicit finance if not properly regulated.

The regulatory conversation has also spilled into Europe, where authorities are weighing new AML rules slated to take effect in 2027. The framework would constrain anonymous accounts and access to privacy-preserving cryptocurrencies by banks and crypto service providers, underscoring the tension between privacy and oversight across borders.

Legal experts tracking the space have described maintaining access to privacy-focused digital assets as a “constant battle” between industry participants and regulators. Anja Blaj, a legal consultant at the European Crypto Initiative, has highlighted how regulatory friction can shape the pace and direction of privacy innovations in the sector.

As the privacy discourse persists, market observers have noted measurable interest in privacy-focused assets. Zcash, in particular, has seen renewed attention and price momentum over the past year, a signal of investors valuing privacy-centric capabilities amid shifting regulatory expectations. (Source: CoinMarketCap)

From policy to on-chain practice

Policy debates aside, the industry continues to translate privacy concepts into on-chain tools and products. Aptos has introduced a privacy-focused coin intended to prevent wallet profiling and protect treasury movements from competitor insight, illustrating how privacy tech can be embedded into corporate and network-level transactions.

Meanwhile, Polygon has rolled out private stablecoin payments for institutions, positioning privacy as a facilitator of broader on-chain adoption by enabling discreet settlement and treasury operations. These developments reflect a broader push to reconcile privacy with practical business and regulatory requirements in real-world deployments.

Looking ahead, investors and builders should watch how privacy-centric tools align with evolving KYC/AML frameworks and the regulatory guidance that will emerge from the SEC Crypto Task Force and European authorities. The path forward will likely combine tighter oversight with clearer, standards-based privacy implementations that support legitimate use while limiting misuse.

U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Commissioner Hester Peirce has flagged a growing undervaluation of financial privacy within U.S. regulation, urging policymakers to move away from treating privacy-preserving technologies with suspicion. Speaking at Georgetown Law, Peirce framed privacy-enhancing technologies as legitimate components of the modern financial ecosystem, not solely as tools associated with illicit activity.

According to a transcript published on the SEC’s website, Peirce argued that safeguarding financial privacy does not stand in opposition to national security objectives. “Empowering government to identify, pursue, and punish the bad guys is important to the security of the nation and its people, but so too is empowering people to protect information about their lives, including their financial lives,” she said.

Peirce emphasized that privacy technologies can help individuals shield themselves from hackers, scammers, and other malicious actors, and should not be construed as an opening for broader surveillance. She also urged developers building privacy-enhancing technologies to engage with the SEC’s Crypto Task Force, particularly on tools that could support Know Your Customer (KYC) and Anti-Money Laundering (AML) compliance requirements.

Key takeaways

• Privacy-preserving technologies are legitimate components of financial infrastructure and are not inherently tied to illicit activity.
• Protecting financial privacy does not conflict with national security objectives; both privacy protections and enforcement capabilities are necessary.
• Regulators are seeking constructive engagement with developers to align privacy innovations with KYC/AML obligations through the SEC Crypto Task Force.
• Global regulatory dynamics are evolving: the European Union is advancing MiCA and 2027 AML rules that could curb anonymous accounts and privacy-preserving cryptocurrencies.
• Industry activity in on-chain privacy tools—ranging from privacy-focused assets to private payment primitives for institutions—continues to shape compliance, licensing, and risk management considerations for firms operating in crypto markets.

Privacy in the regulatory mainstream and cross-border considerations

Peirce’s remarks situate privacy-enhancing technologies at the center of financial infrastructure discussions rather than at the periphery of enforcement. By highlighting that privacy and security can be complementary rather than mutually exclusive, she signals a regulatory posture that seeks to balance technology innovation with risk controls. The SEC’s framing appears to encourage a collaborative approach: privacy tools should not be viewed as antagonistic to regulatory objectives but as potential enablers of safer, more resilient markets when designed with compliance in mind.

Regulatory momentum and the EU policy landscape

The conversation about privacy in crypto is not limited to the United States. In the European Union, policymakers are integrating privacy considerations into a broader regulatory framework that aims to harmonize market integrity with consumer protections. MiCA (Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation) and related AML policy developments are central to how privacy-preserving assets and tools will be treated across EU member states. Proposals under consideration could restrict anonymous accounts and limit support for privacy-focused cryptocurrencies, underscoring the cross-border regulatory risk for projects and institutions that rely on shielded transaction data or user anonymity features.

Legal experts warn that maintaining access to privacy-oriented digital assets remains a contentious and ongoing negotiation. Anja Blaj, a legal consultant at the European Crypto Initiative, described the ongoing struggle as a “constant battle” between the crypto industry and regulators over privacy policy and enforcement. This tension underscores the diverging regulatory trajectories that global firms must navigate when operating in multiple jurisdictions.

Industry developments and practical implications for compliance

Beyond policy debates, the market has seen tangible product developments aimed at enabling privacy without sacrificing onramp and oversight capabilities. For example, privacy-focused blockchain experiments and assets have attracted attention as firms seek to shield treasury movements, payment flows, or strategic trading data from competitors while preserving necessary auditability. In parallel, platforms have introduced privacy-enhanced features for institutional use, such as private payments or shielded transaction layers, designed to support regulated, compliant on-chain activity.

These developments illustrate a broader trend: institutions are pursuing privacy-aware architectures to reduce exposure to data leakage and profiling while remaining subject to KYC/AML, sanction screening, and licensing requirements. The implications for exchanges, custodians, banks, and other financial services providers include heightened emphasis on governance, data minimization, cryptographic risk assessments, and robust regulatory reporting capabilities. In this context, privacy technologies must be evaluated through the lens of risk management, policy alignment, and enforcement readiness.

Engagement, compliance, and the path forward

Peirce’s call for dialogue with the SEC Crypto Task Force points to a practical path for integrating privacy innovation with established compliance regimes. The task force serves as a channel for assessing how privacy-preserving tools can support or constrain KYC/AML objectives, licensing standards, and supervisory expectations. For crypto firms and financial institutions, this signals a need to document privacy-by-design approaches, establish auditable controls for data minimization and access, and maintain transparent governance around cryptographic privacy features.

Looking ahead, the regulatory landscape will continue to shape both product innovation and risk management. While privacy technologies can enhance user protections and resilience against crime, they also invite careful scrutiny to ensure that anonymity does not undermine anti-fraud measures or cross-border enforcement. For policymakers, the challenge lies in harmonizing privacy protections with the realities of global finance, while for market participants, the focus remains on building compliant, auditable privacy-enabled solutions that align with evolving licensing and oversight frameworks.

What comes next will hinge on ongoing rulemaking, enforcement actions, and collaborative efforts between regulators and industry players. Observers should monitor developments in MiCA and EU AML policy, the SEC’s ongoing Crypto Task Force initiatives, and cross-border regulatory formations that could influence the design and deployment of privacy-enhancing technologies in crypto markets.